Yankees Reportedly Reluctant To Surpass Fourth Luxury Tax Tier
The Yankees have had an aggressive offseason, retaining Aaron Judge on a record free agent deal while bringing in Carlos Rodón on a six-year contract. Those additions, plus a new two-year deal for Anthony Rizzo, accomplished most of the club’s heavy lifting.
It also positioned the organization to top last year’s franchise-record spending level. New York has roughly $272MM in player payroll commitments, per Roster Resource, handily above last year’s $254.7MM figure. The club’s luxury tax number is right up against the $293MM line that marks the highest tier of CBT penalization. Roster Resource projects the organization at $292.3MM at present.
That latter number seems particularly important to the organization. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Yankees don’t want to exceed the $293MM threshold. Considering where their payroll stands, rigidly sticking to that goal would rule out any other notable addition unless the club finds a way to shed some money.
The Yankee roster looks strong, with Rodón replacing Jameson Taillon in the rotation for a team that won 99 regular season games and made it to the AL Championship Series. Left field seems their biggest question mark, as last summer’s deadline acquisition Andrew Benintendi departed on a five-year free agent deal with the White Sox. The Yankees currently have veteran Aaron Hicks and youngster Oswaldo Cabrera as their top left field options. Hicks has posted below-average offensive numbers for the past two seasons. Cabrera showed well as a rookie but has only 44 games of MLB experience under his belt.
Heyman reiterates the Yankees’ previously reported interest in free agent left fielder Jurickson Profar but casts doubt on their chances of actually landing him in light of the club’s payroll stance. Heyman reports that veteran utilityman Josh Harrison is also of interest — presumably as a depth infield target who could also factor into the left field mix — but even a low base salary for Harrison would figure to push them past the $293MM CBT mark.
The fourth tax tier was introduced during the most recent round of collective bargaining. Set $60MM above the season’s base figure ($233MM this year), it involves at least an 80% tax on every dollar spent past the fourth tier. Teams paying the luxury tax for a second consecutive year — as the Yankees will be — are taxed at a 90% clip on additional expenditures.
One can argue whether it’s prudent for the Yankees to treat the $293MM figure as a strict cutoff as they look to repeat as division winners in another competitive AL East. As thing stand, the club is set to pay around $29MM in CBT fees. They’re already slated to see their top selection in the 2024 draft moved back ten spots for surpassing the $273MM mark. There’d be no additional draft penalties for surpassing the fourth threshold, though the financial disincentives are even higher. The Yankees certainly haven’t been frugal this winter, guaranteeing upwards of $570MM overall and pushing to second in 2023 spending. The crosstown Mets have proven thoroughly undeterred by the final tax tier, running a CBT payroll north of $360MM that’s easily the league’s highest.
A club’s competitive balance tax figure isn’t calculated until the end of a season. The Yankees could go above $293MM during the offseason while subsequently dipping below that threshold before year’s end. Alternatively, they could stick below the marker for now but reconsider going over at the summer trade deadline if they’re in contention as expected.
If that threshold is truly the line in the sand, trades would be the primary means of clearing additional breathing room. New York would surely welcome the opportunity to reallocate some of the $25MM CBT hit on the Josh Donaldson deal or the $10MM number of Hicks’ contract, but they’ve seemingly found little interest around the league. Players like Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa would draw more interest if New York wanted to make them available, though doing so would obviously deal a hit to their infield depth. Starter Frankie Montas is making $7.5MM and may have been a potential trade target after the club added Rodón; that’d be tougher to do now that Montas is a couple months behind schedule because of continued shoulder troubles.
Who Will Be The Yankees’ Shortstop In 2023?
The Yankees shortstop position has been in a state of flux for over a year now. In September of 2021, manager Aaron Boone announced that Gleyber Torres would be moved over to second base. With that new vacancy, many expected the Yankees to acquire one of the five shortstops at the top of last year’s free agent class: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.
However, as the offseason got underway, reports emerged that the club wasn’t planning to focus its resources on the shortstop position. They had enough confidence in their young prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza they didn’t feel the need to hand out a lengthy contract to fill the position. Instead, they traded for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a glove-first player who had two years of relatively cheap control remaining.
Things went roughly according to plan in 2022, as Kiner-Falefa continued to hit at a below-average level but produced generally solid work with the glove. His .261/.314/.327 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 85, with all those numbers fairly close to his career marks. He made some defensive miscues in the postseason, but Defensive Runs Saved gave him a +10 in the regular season, tied for sixth among MLB shortstops for the year. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average were less enthused but still had him around league average. He’ll turn 28 in March.
One year later, it seems the long-term plan has not changed. There’s another crop of excellent shortstops this year, with Correa returning to the open market alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. But recent reporting still points to the Yankees having enough faith in their internal options to dedicate their offseason efforts elsewhere. The question that needs to be resolved now is exactly how strong that faith is. Is it time to hand the keys over to the kids or not?
One year ago, Peraza had just eight games of Triple-A experience under his belt. He was sent back to that level to start the 2022 season and eventually got into 99 games. In that time, he hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases. His batting line was .259/.329/.448 for a wRC+ of 106. He was promoted to the majors late in the season and got into 18 games there. He only went deep once but hit at a .306/.404/.429 level in that small sample for a wRC+ of 146. His batting average on balls in play was .302 in the minors but jumped to .359 in the majors, meaning those improved results seem unsustainable, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. He’ll turn 23 in June.
Volpe finished 2021 at High-A and started 2022 in Double-A. In 110 games there, he went deep 18 times and swiped 44 bags, producing a .251/.348/.472 batting line for a wRC+ of 122. He scuffled after a promotion to Triple-A, hitting just .236/.313/.404 for a wRC+ of 91, but in a small sample of just 22 games. He’ll turn 22 in April.
A surprise entrant into the mix is Oswaldo Cabrera. As a prospect, he wasn’t considered to be at the same level as Peraza and Volpe but he’s shot forward in recent years. In 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 29 home runs and stole 21 bases. His combined batting line was .272/.330/.533 for a wRC+ of 130. He was hitting well in Triple-A again in 2022 and got promoted to the big leagues. In 44 major league games, he hit .247/.312/.429 for a wRC+ of 111 while spending time at all four infield positions and the outfield corners. He’ll turn 24 in March.
With those youngsters being at or near the majors, it’s possible the Yankees don’t feel they need Kiner-Falefa anymore. They did just avoid arbitration with him by giving him a $6MM contract, but they could work out a trade if they feel secure enough in the other options. However, they could also keep IKF around just in case there’s any growing pains with the younger players, eventually sliding him into a utility role over time. Aside from Torres, the other infielders currently on the roster are on the older side, as Josh Donaldson is turning 37 next month while Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu will turn 34 and 35, respectively, during the next season. Regardless of who gets the starting shortstop job, the club will likely want to keep some depth on hand in case any of these players deal with injuries or underperformance, as they all did in 2022.
It’s likely that the job will be awarded based on meritocracy. Whoever plays the best in the spring and then into the regular season will continue to get the playing time. The others can be moved to utility/bench roles, spend more time in the minors or end up traded to another club. It does seem like the plan is likely to work out, as they just need one of these options to take the reins. By not dedicating a nine-figure contract to a shortstop, they will be able to use their financial resources to attempt to retain Aaron Judge and/or pursue other marquee free agents as they look to repeat at AL East champions in 2023.
But who do you think will charge forward as the everyday shortstop in 2023? Cabrera has the most MLB experience at this point but he comes with less prospect pedigree and seems easily capable of moving to other positions. Peraza seems to have little left to prove in the minors but he’s only played 18 MLB games. Volpe only just reached Triple-A but could burst onto the scene next year. Kiner-Falefa is still around if no one else takes the job. So, who will play the most games at shortstop for the Yankees in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.
Who Will Play The Most Games At Shortstop For The Yankees In 2023?
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Oswald Peraza 42% (4,050)
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Isiah Kiner-Falefa 21% (1,996)
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Anthony Volpe 14% (1,367)
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don't know/someone else 14% (1,330)
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Oswaldo Cabrera 9% (867)
Total votes: 9,610
(poll link for app users)
Yankees Notes: Judge Free Agency, LeMahieu, Kiner-Falefa
Brian Cashman addressed reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, for the first time following the Yankees’ ALCS defeat to the Houston Astros. Cashman’s future was among the topics discussed, but the GM also took time to provide some insight on various areas of the playing roster.
Aaron Judge‘s future with the organization will be the biggest question heading into the off-season, and Cashman says the team would ideally get a deal done soon if they’re to re-sign him. Judge is a strong favorite for AL MVP after hitting 62 home runs and posting a .311/.425/.686 slash line. A worst case scenario for the Yankees would be for them to miss out on Judge after his free agency drags long into the off-season and likely replacements have since signed elsewhere, so it makes sense that Cashman would prefer business to be completed swiftly.
“He’s gonna dictate the dance steps to his free agency because he’s earned the right to get there,” Cashman said. “We’ll see how it plays out. He’s the most important. If he came in here today and said, ‘I’m signing up. Let’s go,’ there’s still work to be done.”
Cashman wouldn’t offer much insight into the process, offering a “no comment” when asked if the Yankees and Judge had engaged in discussion since the end of the season. He also noted it’s more of a decision for Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner as well. Cashman’s clearly stated he wants Judge back, but the ultimate decision will land at Steinbrenner’s feet as to how big of a contract he’s willing to hand out.
DJ LeMahieu struggled with a foot injury late in the regular season and wound up missing the entire post-season. The Yankees haven’t settled on a path forward for managing that injury in the off-season, but surgery remains on the table. LeMahieu posted a .261./.357/.377 line with 12 home runs this season, well short of the MVP-level offensive output he produced for the Yankees during 2019-20. The Yankees will hope a full recovery from the injury will allow LeMahieu to post better offensive numbers, but he’ll also turn 35 in 2023 and it’s perhaps unreasonable to expect much bounceback for the veteran. With four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, he’ll certainly be back in pinstripes though, but just where he fits in is up in the air and may depend on how the off-season plays out.
LeMahieu’s played plenty of first base with the Yankees, but that’s become less of a need since Anthony Rizzo joined the team last season. It’s already been reported that Rizzo is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2023. It’s not much of a surprise given Rizzo had a strong season and is expected to benefit from shift restrictions next year. Cashman stated the Yankees will seek to re-sign Rizzo if he opts out. That could come in the form of a qualifying offer, but it seems likely Rizzo would decline that in favor of a multi-year deal.
The left side of the infield drew plenty of criticism throughout the season, and particularly during the playoffs, but Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are both controlled for 2023. Donaldson is owed $21.75MM while Kiner-Falefa is into his final year of arbitration and is predicted to make $6.5MM per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Donaldson ranked eighth among qualified third basemen in Outs Above Average, but scuffled with the bat, hitting just .222/.308/.374 with 15 home runs. Kiner-Falefa was never expected to be a major offensive contributor, but defensive metrics were mixed on his glove work at shortstop, ranging from 28th in Outs Above Average to seventh in Defensive Runs Saved. While a change at third might be tricky given Donaldson’s significant salary, Cashman’s left the door open for change at shortstop, particularly given the impressive showing rookies Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza made down the stretch. The Yankees also have top prospect Anthony Volpe getting close to the majors.
“I think Kiner was along the lines of what we expected,” Cashman said. “It gave us an opportunity to bridge the gap while the kids continued to develop because everybody in the industry, fans and teams alike, recognize that we have some pretty impactful prospects that we’re developing and needed some more time.”
In other bits of info from Cashman’s press conference, he said he wouldn’t discuss trading players but noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks would be back and that the team felt he still had something to offer. Hicks hit .216/.330/.313 in his age-32 campaign, and has $30.4MM and at least three years remaining on his contract. It’s worth adding here that manager Aaron Boone said today he wants to utilize Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield a couple of times a week next season. Stanton has largely played as a designated hitter of late, but factoring him into the outfield depth chart more regularly would affect Hicks’ playing time.
The Yankees are also hoping to bring back pitching coach Matt Blake. Hired out of Cleveland after the Yankees parted ways with Larry Rothschild in 2019, Blake is out of contract. The Yankees ranked third in the majors in team ERA with a 3.30 mark this year, behind only the Dodgers and Astros.
Yankees Notes: LeMahieu, Rizzo, Cabrera, Bader, Pitching Staff
3:26PM: LeMahieu discussed his toe injury with Rivera and other reporters, saying that he had yet to begin any baseball activities since he isn’t able to rotate his right foot. LeMahieu is hopeful he might be able to return when the Yankees begin a homestand on September 20, though Boone wasn’t quite as optimistic about that potential return date.
9:25AM: The Yankees were largely able to avoid the injury bug in the early part of the year but it’s caught up with them here in the latter part of the schedule. The club currently has 15 players on the IL, which includes five position players and 10 pitchers. Marly Rivera did a thorough roundup at ESPN, including comments from manager Aaron Boone.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo has been out of action for over a week now but seems to be trending towards a return to baseball activities. A lingering back issue led to him getting an epidural as treatment, but that had the unfortunate side effect of giving Rizzo migraines. Rivera reports that Rizzo received a blood patch to try to alleviate the migraines, which Boone characterized as a success. “Immediately, they had him moving around and walking,” Boone said. “And I think it freed him up right away. Headaches are gone so far.”
Boone then added that if Rizzo feels good today, they will start ramping up baseball activities. While that sounds like good news, the next steps are still a bit murky. Though Boone is hoping for Rizzo to be back in the lineup within a week, it will depend on how things progress. “It’ll kind of depend on how the ramp-up goes. Hopefully, we’ve gotten through what we need to, and now we can start building that process. We’ll just pay attention to how he’s doing and how long it takes him to get rolling.”
With Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu out of action, the Yanks took a shot on Ronald Guzmán, though he was designated for assignment after just a few days. Marwin Gonzalez is holding down the position for now, with Rivera reporting that rookie Oswaldo Cabrera currently penciled in as the backup. Cabrera definitely has versatility, having played a lot of second base, third base and shortstop in his career, as well as some outfield work. He’s never played first base, however, though that doesn’t seem too concerning to the Yanks. Rivera reports that Cabrera has been practicing his work at first, getting a nod of approval from infield coach Travis Chapman.
There could be reinforcements coming for the outfield as well, with Harrison Bader inching closer to his Yankee debut. Acquired from the Cardinals on deadline day, Bader was on the IL at the time with plantar fasciitis and hasn’t been able to officially don the pinstripes just yet. He is going to start a rehab assignment today, though only serving as designated hitter initially. “It’s really just a matter of getting on a baseball field, checking off boxes in terms of feeling comfortable physically at game speed, and once those are checked, I’m going to go and be a winning player for this team,” Bader said.
Giving more details about the rehab, Boone said that Bader will DH today for the Double-A Somerset Patriots, who then have an off-day on Monday, with Bader building up after that. “It’ll probably be at least a week,” Boone said. “If we get through that week, and the buildup is going fine, he could be in play then when we start the homestand.” The homestand Boone referred to begins on September 20, which would give Bader a chance to contribute over the final two weeks of the regular schedule.
As for the pitching staff, the Yanks could have many options over the horizon, as a whole fleet of arms are rehabbing and nearing a return. Aroldis Chapman, Miguel Castro and Zack Britton are all scheduled to pitch for the Patriots today, with Chapman and Castro potentially returning for the same homestand as Bader. Scott Effross isn’t quite at the rehab stage but is gearing up to it. Additionally, Luis Severino is ready for launch but will make one more rehab start since the big league club has a couple of off-days that negate the need for his services in the short term.
The health of all these players, and the roster in general, will be hugely important for the Yankees in the final few weeks of the season. Not so long ago, it seemed that they were in cruise control, leading the AL East by as much as 15 1/2 games in July. This pile of injuries has helped slow the team down and whittle their lead over the Rays to just 4 1/2 games as of today, with the Jays just half a game behind Tampa. With just over three weeks left in the regular season, the Yanks will be hoping to fend off their competitors and keep the division title, which would be hugely important for their postseason chances. Whoever wins the East will almost certainly get a bye through the first round, whereas those who settle for a Wild Card slot will have to survive a best-of-three series to stay alive.
Yankees Place Clay Holmes On 15-Day Injured List
The Yankees have placed closer Clay Holmes on the 15-day injured list due to back spasms, as one of a series of transactions. Miguel Andujar and Tim Locastro were optioned to Triple-A, while Ron Marinaccio, Estevan Florial, and Oswaldo Cabrera were all called up from Triple-A. (Florial and Cabrera’s promotions were reported earlier today.)
Holmes’ placement is retroactive to August 14, and he hasn’t pitched since August 12. There was increasing expectation that Holmes would need an IL trip to fully recuperate from his back problem, though New York manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and other reporters that the team is hopeful Holmes only misses the 15-day minimum.
Since being acquired from the Pirates prior to the 2021 trade deadline, Holmes has been outstanding in the pinstripes, posting a 2.10 ERA over his 77 innings in New York. This outstanding performance elevated Holmes to the closer’s job when Aroldis Chapman went on the IL himself earlier this season, and with Chapman struggling even before he got injured, the Yankees kept Holmes as the top ninth-inning choice even after Chapman’s return.
However, just as the Yankees have looked shaky over the last five weeks of play, Holmes has also come back to earth after his incredible start. The righty has a 9.00 ERA over his last 12 games and 11 innings pitched, and he has blown four of his last five save chances. As a result, it now appears quite possible that Chapman (who has pitched better since his return from the IL) will reclaim the closer’s job in Holmes’ absence, and perhaps for the remainder of the season. The Yankees could also essentially use both pitchers as closers or set-up men depending on the situation, rather than have a strict order to their late-game plans.
Yankees To Recall Estevan Florial, Oswaldo Cabrera
The Yankees are set to call up outfielder Estevan Florial, as first reported by Bob Klapisch of the Newark Star-Ledger (Twitter link). New York will also promote infielder Oswaldo Cabrera for his Major League debut, Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reports. Both players are already on the 40-man roster. The Yankees have yet to formally announce the pair of promotions or the corresponding moves that will accompany them, although Cabrera has confirmed his first call to the Show on his Instagram.
This is the second call to the Majors this year for the 24-year-old Florial and the third season in which he’s received some big league action. Despite already receiving several MLB opportunities, however, Florial has appeared in just 16 Major League games and taken 40 plate appearances as a member of the big league club, hitting just .206/.325/.353 in that time.
That lack of production, of course, have come with sparse playing time. Florial has never gotten a true look and regular playing time at the big league level, despite ranking among the game’s top 50 or so prospects from 2018-19. His stock has dimmed since that time — due in no small part to a tepid .218/.315/.404 slash in Triple-A last season. However, Florial is enjoying a vastly better run in his second Triple-A stint this year, batting .286/.368/.490 with 14 home runs, 26 doubles, a pair of triples and a hefty 32 stolen bases.
Florial’s huge 30.8% strikeout rate in Triple-A isn’t an improvement over last year’s 30.9% mark, so the lack of bat-to-ball skills are a clear concern (and another reason he’s perhaps not as highly touted as a few years ago). Nonetheless, with the Yankees stumbling through a dismal 3-12 stretch over the past couple weeks that includes just nine total runs over their past seven games, they’ll look to augment the lineup and get some fresh faces into the mix in hopes of turning things around.
In addition to Florial, the Yankees will give the 23-year-old Cabrera his first call to the Majors. A switch-hitter who’s seen time at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield corners this year (albeit just one game in left and one in right), Cabrera will give skipper Aaron Boone plenty of versatility. He’s batting .262/.340/.492 through 208 Triple-A plate appearances with eight homers, a dozen doubles, three triples and ten steals to go along with a 9.4% walk rate and 26.6% strikeout rate.
While neither Florial nor Cabrera is necessarily among the sport’s overall top-ranked prospects, they’re both well-regarded within the Yankees’ system. Baseball America ranks Florial as the team’s No. 10 prospect and Cabrera at No. 12, while MLB.com places them back-to-back at Nos. 14 (Cabrera) and 15 (Florial).
Yankees Designate Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor And Tyler Wade For Assignment
The Yankees announced they’ve designated Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor and Tyler Wade for assignment. The moves create roster space for the selections of prospects Oswaldo Cabrera, Ron Marinaccio, Everson Pereira, Stephen Ridings and JP Sears to the 40-man roster. That keeps all five from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Frazier and Wade are arbitration-eligible, but the Yankees evidently determined they weren’t going to bring either player back. It’s easy to envision both attracting interest over the coming days, and New York will ten days to explore offers.
Frazier was a middle-of-the-order presence as recently as last year, when he mashed at a .267/.394/.511 clip. That came in a small sample of 160 plate appearances during a truncated season, but it was the kind of offensive upside talent evaluators have lauded for the former #5 overall pick. While Frazier’s a limited defensive player with swing-and-miss concerns, he also flashed a tantalizing blend of raw power and plate discipline.
The 2021 season was a disaster, though. Not only did the 27-year-old’s line fall to a miserly .186/.317/.317, he didn’t play past the end of June due to recurring vertigo-like symptoms. It’s certainly not how either he or the team would’ve envisioned his time in pinstripes coming to an end.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Frazier for a modest $2.4MM salary if he were to proceed through the arbitration process. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see another team roll the dice on his upside for that affordable sum, either via trade or waiver claim. If Frazier were to clear waivers, he’d have the right to elect minor league free agency.
That’s also the case for Wade, who’s projected for an affordable $700K arb salary. The 26-year-old doesn’t bring much power potential, but he draws a fair amount of walks, runs well and can handle multiple positions. Wade is coming off a .268/.354/.323 showing in 145 plate appearances, and it’d register as a surprise if he didn’t land elsewhere in the coming days.
The Yankees swung a deal to acquire Odor from the Rangers just before the start of the 2021 season. While the left-handed hitter had some timely hits, his overall production was lackluster. Odor managed just a .202/.286/.379 mark over 361 plate appearances. The 27-year-old will be guaranteed $12MM next season, the final year of his contract. Texas remains on the hook for essentially all of that sum, so any team that acquires Odor would only owe him the league minimum salary.
Turning to the prospects involved, Ridings may be the best known. The big right-hander already made his MLB debut this past season as a COVID replacement. While he only worked five innings of relief, he looked like a potential late-game weapon. Ridings averaged 97 MPH on his fastball and generated whiffs on a massive 18.9% of his offerings. The 26-year-old also posted dominant numbers in the high minors.
Cabrera is the highest-regarded of the group, according to Baseball America. BA’s #8 organizational farmhand, Cabrera is coming off a solid .256/.311/.492 showing with 24 homers over 478 plate appearances at Double-A Somerset. He’s regarded as a high-end defensive infielder with strong bat-to-ball skills and burgeoning power.
Pereira, a lefty-hitting center fielder, was limited to 221 low minors plate appearances by injuries. The 20-year-old probably isn’t a near-term big league option, but the Yankees didn’t want to chance another team taking a shot on his upside. A highly-regarded amateur coming out of Venezuela in 2017, he raked at a .303/.398/.686 clip when healthy enough to take the field this year. Neither Sears nor Marinaccio has ever made an organizational ranking at FanGraphs or BA, but both posted strong numbers in the high minors and could be big league options in 2022.