Trade Chatter: Segura, Goldschmidt, Astros, Gomes
After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.
Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:
- In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
- While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ‘Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
- Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
- As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.
Quick Hits: Stroman, Goldschmidt, Orioles, Mariners
The Toronto Blue Jays have not had any serious trade discussions regarding staff ace Marcus Stroman, per the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That does not mean, however, that teams haven’t asked. The Reds, in particular, are one team with noted interest in the Jays’ right-hander. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, as the Reds have a well-documented mandate to add pitching this winter. For the Jays, to move Stroman now would definitely be selling low. Coming off back-to-back 200-inning efforts in 2016 and 2017, Stroman labored through only 102 1/3 innings in 2018, with 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 5.54 ERA in nineteen starts. He twice went on the disabled list, including a six-week stint for shoulder fatigue in May. As the winter action continues to wind up, keep warm with some quick hits from around the league…
- Yesterday’s report that the Diamondbacks were “aggressively shopping” ace Zack Greinke speaks to the current challenge facing Arizona GM Mike Hazen. The greater existential hurdle that Hazen needs to clear this winter is the question of whether to trade star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan portends Hazen’s future through the eyes of two men who have been there before: Pirates GM Neal Huntington and Royals GM Dayton Moore, each of whom faced a similar crisis point for their respective franchises. What makes the Diamondbacks situation unique, of course, is both the quality of their star and the quality of their competition. With current juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers firmly atop the division, and the best farm system in baseball lurking in San Diego, the Diamondbacks have a tough row to hoe no matter which route they take. The consensus “smart baseball move” is to trade him, but there’s more than just baseball to consider in trading a club icon as locally popular as Goldschmidt. No doubt Hazen is staring down the decision that will define his tenure in Arizona.
- This Tuesday, November 20th is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule 5 draft in December. That doesn’t give new Orioles GM Mike Elias a ton of time to acclimate himself to the Orioles’ farm system. While other teams are finalizing the decisions they’ve had months to ponder, Elias will have to hit the ground running with deadline decisions to clean up his 40-man roster. It’s likely the Orioles will make at least one selection in December’s upcoming draft – which requires opening up a spot on the currently-full 40-man roster. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com takes a look at some of the players that could be on the chopping block. Veteran backstop Caleb Joseph is one DFA candidate, as is injury-prone catcher Andrew Susac. It should be noted, Elias has until November 30th to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, giving Elias some extra time to decide on a player like shortstop Tim Beckham. The urgency before Tuesday is in protecting anyone likely to be poached by another organization, such as right-hander Dillon Tate, catcher Martin Cervenka or left-handed pitcher Luis Gonzalez. Tate is the likeliest of the bunch to be protected, as the Orioles probably won’t want to risk losing the 24-year-old just a few months after acquiring him from the Yankees in the Zach Britton trade.
- Seattle team chairman and CEO John Stanton sent an email to Mariners’ employees on Friday regarding the recent allegations brought against the team by former employee Dr. Lorena Martin, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. In the letter, Stanton calls the allegations “disturbing” and “totally unexpected,” while also claiming progress “in reshaping our organization’s culture.” Nevertheless, an internal investigation conducted by the team’s human resources and legal departments determined Martin’s allegations to be unfounded. The MLB is conducting their own investigation into the matter, which is still pending.
Market Notes: Yankees, Padres, Gray, Athletics, Cards
With the GM Meetings now wrapped up, the stage is set for the offseason action to get underway. Of course, we’re still waiting for some significant dominoes to fall … and everyone involved is no doubt curious to see how this year’s market will develop after the 2017-18 dud. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports cites some warning signs on spending levels; readers interested in the higher-level picture will want to give his reasoning a look.
While we wait for some hard data points to be set down, the just-completed meetings left quite a few rumors. We’ve covered many over the past several days; here are a few more worthy of note:
- Though the Yankees seem unsettled at first base, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that they haven’t reached out to the Diamondbacks on slugger Paul Goldschmidt. The potential rental slugger, one of the game’s steadiest offensive producers, is reportedly on the trading block. While the Yankees got stunning production from Luke Voit over a brief stretch late last year, and still have Greg Bird on hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if they sought to add a bigger piece.
- Unsurprisingly, the Bronx organization seems fixated first on pitching. Beyond its free agent targets, the club is looking into the biggest possible names on the trade market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Yanks have opened a line of communication with the Mariners on James Paxton. And the New York delegation to the GM Meetings met with their peers from the Indians, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco both covered in conversation. It obviously isn’t at all surprising to hear that the Yankees have checked in on these distinguished hurlers, but it’s nevertheless a notable bit of information as the market continues to develop.
- There are quite a few possibilities for the Padres, writes Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription link), as the organization is feeling a need to show some real strides in the win-loss department. We’ve heard chatter recently about the desire for a young starter and the series of potential trade pieces, but Lin’s most interesting notes seem to focus on the left side of the infield. Manny Machado is not seen internally as a realistic target, with Freddy Galvis still under consideration at short. If the team really wants to push things forward, though, Galvis or another veteran may only warm the seat up for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. At third, Josh Donaldson does not appear to be the first name on the club’s list of targets. Rather, says Lin, the current plan is to seek a new third baseman via trade.
- So, where have the Padres set their sights for a third baseman? There aren’t many obviously available options that would figure to represent everyday pieces. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported recently, though, that the Pads are interested in pursuing Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who recently posted a big campaign on the heels of what now looks to be quite a team-friendly extension. Given the Cincinnati organization’s inclination to begin pushing toward contention, that seems like a tough deal to swing for Padres GM A.J. Preller.
- Acee also tabs the Padres as a suitor for Yankees righty Sonny Gray, who’s being openly marketed. Whether Gray would be seen as fulfilling the club’s rotation needs, or rather serving as a potential complement to a more significant addition, isn’t clear. There are other teams with interest in Gray, of course. Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, at least five organizations have inquired, and it wouldn’t be surprising to hear of more. Among those contemplating a move is Gray’s former employer. The Athletics evidently think their former staff ace could bounce back in Oakland, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. Of course, it remains to be seen how much the A’s will be willing to stake on a turnaround. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that at least five teams have inquired with the Yankees on Gray’s availability — the A’s presumably among them. Gray is projected to top $9MM in arbitration earnings this winter, but he thrived away from Yankee Stadium last season and had plenty of encouraging secondary metrics beyond his rudimentary ERA.
- We’ve heard recently that the Cardinals intend to explore the relief market, with one southpaw on the team’s priority list. Accordingly, it’s no surprise to hear that the club is among the many teams to show early interest in veteran lefty Andrew Miller, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Miller is drawing interest after getting some good news on his knee, so there’ll be no shortage of competition. At this point, it’s entirely unclear where he’ll end up.
NL Central Rumors: Reds, Cubs’ Bullpen, Cardinals
Though there’s been plenty of talk about the Reds‘ willingness to increase payroll and their pursuit of rotation upgrades, Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the team isn’t likely to make any “top-tier glamorous” additions in free agency. Daugherty hears that Cincinnati may be willing to boost payroll by as much as $30MM but is looking to add a mid-rotation arm and a “middle-to-late-inning reliever.” The Reds, he opines, should be open to dealing some of their young hitters — even those who’ve reached the Majors — for pitching help, as it’s difficult to sway free-agent arms to sign up to pitch half their games at Great American Ball Park. Regardless of he means by which they choose to do so, the Reds seem determined to bolster the pitching staff this winter.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- “Adding bullpen depth is a priority,” Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said Wednesday at the GM Meetings in Carlsbad, Calif. (link via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago). Hoyer noted that, ideally, the Cubs would add some quality left-handed help to the relief corps, though he also indicated that the greater concern is simply in building a quality relief unit and the depth necessary to keep top arms fresh down the stretch. Levine writes that in addition to their pursuit of a left-handed bullpen arm, the Cubs are hoping to bring veteran righty Jesse Chavez back into the fold. Chavez, 35, posted a 1.15 ERA and a ridiculous 42-to-5 K/BB ratio in 39 innings for the Cubs after being acquired from the Rangers.
- The Cardinals are once again in the market for a big bat, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the GM Meetings that the current thinking is “more infield than outfield.” Goold notes that Bryce Harper would be one notable exception to that line of thinking, but the rest of the free agents the Cards currently like appear to be of the corner infield variety. Adding a third baseman or first baseman is plausible, given Matt Carpenter‘s versatility. Goold adds that the trade market could present numerous alternatives, with players like Paul Goldschmidt potentially being made available on the trade market. The D-backs are reportedly open to entertaining offers for key players, and with just one year and $14.5MM remaining on his contract, it’s only natural that Goldschmidt’s name will be bandied about the rumor mill over the next few months as teams try to pry the perennial MVP candidate away from Arizona. That’s but one of many options, of course, as Goold explores at greater length in his column.
Diamondbacks Exercise Club Option Over Paul Goldschmidt
In news that will come as no surprise, the Diamondbacks have exercised their club option over first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com (via Twitter). He’ll earn $14.5MM in lieu of a $2MM buyout.
Though the Snakes will be more than pleased to control Goldschmidt at this price tag, it’s a bit of a bittersweet moment. 2019 is the final season contemplated under the extension Goldschmidt signed back in March of 2013.
With the deal winding down, many have wondered whether Goldschmidt could be dealt this winter. The D-Backs are facing several roster needs and arguably lack the resources to address them, at least within their typical payroll levels. Cashing in on the final year of the contract might offer the organization an opportunity to recoup significant young talent (or, perhaps, to shed other unwanted salary commitments).
Expectations remain lofty for Goldschmidt as he begins to prepare for his age-31 season. He posted a .290/.389/.533 slash with 33 home runs in 2018. That’s good for a 144 wRC+, which matches his average output over a stellar career.
Among the game’s steadiest bats, Goldschmidt ought to draw quite a bit of interest if he’s dangled. While the market has tended not to reward defensively limited sluggers, Goldschmidt looks like an exception. Not only is he regarded as a high-end defender at first, but he’s an excellent baserunner. And, most importantly, his output at the plate is matched or exceeded by only a few other players in the entirety of the sport.
NL Notes: Schoop, Escobar, Diamondbacks, Kang, Pirates
The Brewers will have a tough call to make on Jonathan Schoop following the infielder’s struggles in 2018, and general manager David Stearns opted not to tip his hand when it comes to tendering a contract to the arbitration-eligible slugger (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). “That’s a discussion that we’re going to have to continue to have here over the next couple of weeks to a month,” said Stearns. “…He has had really impressive stretches throughout his career, and unfortunately for both him and us, we didn’t see one of those stretches when he was a Brewer. We’ll sit down to see if we can determine why, and then we’ll go forward.” Schoop, 27, was one of the game’s most productive infielders in 2017 but turned in an awful .233/.266/.416 slash through 501 plate appearances this year — including a brutal .202/.246/.331 slash with the Brewers. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn a $10.1MM salary in 2019.
Here’s more from the NL…
- The Diamondbacks‘ surprising new deal with versatile infielder Eduardo Escobar opens a plethora of options for the organization this offseason, The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan writes in an expansive look at the team’s options (subscription link). The move first and foremost indicates that the Snakes aren’t gearing up for a complete rebuild, but it does allow the team the freedom to shift some pieces around. Jake Lamb could head to first base in the event of an oft-speculated Paul Goldschmidt deal, Buchanan notes, or Escobar could find regular work at shortstop should Nick Ahmed be moved. If the team doesn’t subtract any pieces, he could even play second base in place of Ketel Marte, whom Buchanan reports has been discussed internally as a center field option. General manager Mike Hazen, who discusses the move at length in the column, made clear that Escobar will be in line for regular at-bats next season, even if the exact plan will obviously dependent on the remainder of the offseason. The 29-year-old Escobar hit .268/.327/.444 with the D-backs following a trade from the Twins and slashed .272/.334/.489 with 23 homers, 48 doubles and three triples on the season as a whole.
- While the Pirates haven’t given a firm indication as to whether they’ll exercise Jung Ho Kang‘s $5.5MM club option for the 2019 season, MLB.com’s Adam Berry takes a look at the situation and suggests it’s quite possible that Kang will return for another season. General manager Neal Huntington recently suggested that the team and Kang may need to find a middle ground rather than bringing him back at the full $5.5MM value of the option — implying that the Pirates could pay a $250K buyout and bring Kang back at a lower guaranteed base salary. Berry also notes that it’s unlikely the team will move on from Colin Moran despite mixed results in his first season with Pittsburgh, citing a strong finish and defensive improvements over the course of the season (in addition to the fact that the Buccos acquired him as a key piece in the Gerrit Cole trade not even a year ago).
Poll: Paul Goldschmidt’s Future
Even though he still has another year of team control remaining, superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – a Diamondback since they chose him in the eighth round of the 2009 draft – may be in his final days with the club. While the path the Diamondbacks will take during the offseason is uncertain, general manager Mike Hazen hasn’t ruled out a full rebuild. Arizona’s in a bind in terms of payroll, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this week, and set to lose two of its best players to free agency in left-hander Patrick Corbin and center fielder A.J. Pollock.
In the event those factors do lead to a teardown in the desert, the logical move may be to at least gauge interest in the 31-year-old Goldschmidt. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this week Arizona will indeed “listen on” Goldschmidt, as dealing him would help restock a barren farm system which Baseball America (subscription required) ranks as the game’s fourth worst.
Between the free-agent and trade markets, Goldschmidt would easily be the premier first base option available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, there don’t seem to be any starting-caliber first basemen set to reach free agency, while all of Goldschmidt’s fellow trade candidates at the position pale in comparison to the six-time All-Star. Those factors – not to mention Goldschmdt’s affordable salary (he’ll play 2019 on a $14.5MM club option) – would likely lead to widespread interest.
2019 will be the final season of the six-year, $46.5MM extension (including the option) he inked with the D-backs entering 2013. The decision to lock up Goldschmidt before he turned into an elite player will go down as one of the best in franchise history, given that the pact has been a steal from the get-go. He broke out in earnest during the first year of it, turning in a 6.0-fWAR campaign, and hasn’t really slowed down since. Now coming off a 5.1-fWAR season (the fifth year of at least 5.0 fWAR in his career), Goldschmidt’s facing an uncertain future for the first time since signing his team-friendly contract.
The D-backs may well keep Goldschmidt through the winter and try to extend one of their all-time greats, regardless of whether they expect to bounce back from an 82-win season in 2019. But if the team doesn’t think it’s going to contend in the near future, or if it’s simply unable to come to terms with Goldschmidt, we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform.
(poll link for app users)
Do you expect the D-backs to trade Paul Goldschmidt this offseason?
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Yes 56% (5,677)
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No 44% (4,492)
Total votes: 10,169
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On D-backs’ Offseason Plans
With two of their best players, A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, set to hit free agency while other key players like Paul Goldschmidt and Robbie Ray inch closer to the open market, the D-backs will at least gauge trade interest in their roster early in the offseason before plotting a course, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
Around the league, there’s an expectation that the Snakes could oversee a full-throated rebuild, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests on Twitter. Within the organization, Hazen says the front office has already met with owner Ken Kendrick and CEO Derrick Hall, calling Kendrick “open-minded” as the offseason gets underway.
“I think one of the takeaways for us was just to get a feel for what the trade market would be for various guys, evaluate the free-agent market as it comes out and see what happens, and reconvene,” adds Hazen.
There’s been plenty of speculation about a rebuild in Phoenix, where the D-backs stand to lose both Pollock and Corbin this winter and will see Goldschmidt reach free agency following the 2019 season. Ray, meanwhile, is set to hit the open market after the 2020 season, as is outfielder David Peralta. The Arizona farm system is not considered to be particularly strong, and the team’s long-term payroll is weighed down by Zack Greinke‘s record contract and the albatross deal for Yasmany Tomas — two remnants from the previous front office regime around which Hazen & Co. will need to navigate.
The D-backs also have a whopping 14 players eligible for arbitration this winter, including several key players who are up for sizable raises — as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz earlier today. Peralta ($7.7MM), Ray ($6.1MM), Brad Boxberger ($4.9MM), Taijuan Walker ($4.825MM), Jake Lamb ($4.7MM), Steven Souza Jr. ($4MM), Nick Ahmed ($3.1MM), Archie Bradley ($2MM), Andrew Chafin ($1.8MM), T.J. McFarland ($1.4MM) and Matt Andriese ($1.1MM) all figure to be tendered contracts.
Add in Goldschmidt’s no-brainer club option and guaranteed salaries for Greinke, Tomas, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson and Ketel Marte, and the tab reaches $119.125MM — a hefty sum for a D-backs club that has only twice opened the season with more than $100MM in guaranteed contracts on the books. Even rounding out the roster with league-minimum players would push the Diamondbacks within a few million dollars of the franchise-record $131.5MM payroll they carried on Opening Day 2018. And if the team decides to tender contracts to any of Shelby Miller ($4.9MM projection), Chris Owings ($3.6MM) or John Ryan Murphy ($1.1MM), that financial outlook would only be further muddied.
With little help on the way from the farm, two of their best players hitting free agency, the face of a franchise a year from the open market, a near-record payroll and a miserable finish to the season, it’s not hard to see why the D-backs are at least considering a look to the future. A full tear-down wouldn’t even be necessary, as they could gauge interest in flipping some stars who are controlled for a relatively short period of time in exchange for some more controllable assets that could help at the MLB level either immediately or in the near future.
Goldschmidt would be the biggest piece they could put on the market, as the perennial MVP candidate rebounded from an awful start to post a characteristically brilliant .290/.389/.533 slash with 33 homers in 690 plate appearances. But Ray would also be one of the most in-demand assets on the offseason market for starting pitching, with few quality arms expected to be available in trades. The 27-year-old missed time with an oblique strain in 2018 and a concussion in 2017, but he’s averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings over the past two seasons and a 3.34 ERA in his past 285 1/3 innings in that time. Peralta is only two years from free agency himself and posted a .293/.352/.516 line with a career-high 30 homers.
Certainly, there are avenues to additional payroll capacity down the line. The team inked a television deal reportedly worth more than $1.5 billion in Feb. 2015, but they’re only in year three of a contract that was said to be as long as two decades in length and included gradual increases in year-over-year television revenue. The Diamondbacks are also in the process of seeking alternatives to Chase Field, but a new stadium wouldn’t be a possibility until at least the 2022 season.
Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West
With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.
We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history. He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance. Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers. Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw. Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
- Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark. The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year. Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed. The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke‘s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward. A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs. But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews. Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats. With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
- Brandon Belt, Giants: No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ‘clutch.’ Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position. His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
- Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame. With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.
NL West Notes: Goldschmidt, Desmond, Rockies, Hill
While still technically an above-average run creator (105 wRC+) this season, Paul Goldschmidt is suffering through an uncharacteristically long slump, hitting just .216/.347/.388 with four homers over his first 167 plate appearances. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes, Goldschmidt’s soft-contact rate is much higher than his career average, as is his percentage of swinging-and-missing fastballs in the strike zone. The latter statistic has led to Goldschmidt’s 30.5% strikeout rate, which is far above his 22.4% career mark. The Diamondbacks first baseman didn’t share any details about his slump to reporters, except to say that he feels physically fine, so an injury doesn’t appear to be the cause of the problem. Remarkably, the D’Backs are still tied for the NL’s best record despite not having their star slugger hitting at his usual standard, though obviously the team hopes Goldschmidt gets on track soon.
Some more items from around the NL West…
- Speaking of slumping first basemen, Ian Desmond‘s struggles continued today with an 0-for-4 day, dropping his slash line to an ugly .170/.213/.355 over 150 PA. The Rockies are lacking in viable alternatives at first base, The Athletic’s Nick Groke writes (subscription required), with Ryan McMahon recently demoted due to his own lack of production, Daniel Castro and Josh Fuentes both lacking experience at first base, and prospect Jordan Patterson hitting well but carrying a high strikeout rate at Triple-A. It isn’t probable that Gerardo Parra returns to first base, as “his defense lacked and he disliked the idea” of the position change in limited action at first last season. It stands to reason that first base could be a target area for the Rockies at the trade deadline should they remain the pennant race — like the D’Backs, the Rockies have also been competitive (22-19 after today’s loss to the Brewers) despite a lack of production at first base. A new addition, however, wouldn’t help solve the bigger-picture problem of Desmond, who has been a sub-replacement level player since signing a five-year, $70MM free agent deal with Colorado in December 2016.
- Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill was removed during the sixth inning of today’s start due to a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times (Twitter link) and other reporters. Roberts is still hopeful Hill can make his next start, though another blister is an ominous sign given Hill’s long history of similar issues. Hill has already spent time on the DL this season due to a cracked fingernail and infection on that same finger. Though Hill has just a 6.20 ERA over 24 2/3 IP this season, the Dodgers can ill-afford yet another notable injury, especially with the rotation already missing Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
- For more from the division, Connor Byrne published another set of NL West Notes earlier today on MLBTR