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Rosenthal’s Latest: Astros, A’s, Indians, Phillies

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If the Astros don’t recover from their 17-26 start, they could become interesting sellers as the trade deadline approaches, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). As pending free agents at season’s end, outfielder Colby Rasmus, right-handers Doug Fister and Scott Feldman, and catcher Jason Castro could all be on the move. Center fielder Carlos Gomez’s deal is also set to expire, though his value is close to nonexistent at the moment, according to Rosenthal. Gomez has rapidly fallen from grace since the Astros surrendered a handful of youthful pieces for him and righty Mike Fiers at last year’s deadline. Thanks to both that trade and the offseason acquisition of reliever Ken Giles, the Astros have lost several young players and could replenish their system this summer by moving at least some of the aforementioned veterans.

More of the latest rumblings from Rosenthal:

  • Athletics lefty Rich Hill, third baseman Danny Valencia and reliever John Axford are all potential deadline chips, reports Rosenthal. The only member of the trio unsigned beyond this season is the 36-year-old Hill, who is on a $6MM salary and has performed like an ace since his red-hot September with Boston in 2015. Valencia is currently making $3.15MM and has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he has been quietly spectacular going back to last season. Over his past 475 plate appearances, Valencia has slashed .302/.352/.531 with 24 homers. With third base prospect Matt Chapman waiting in the wings, the A’s could sell high on Valencia, per Rosenthal. Axford, meanwhile, has gotten solid results in 18 2/3 frames this year (2.89 ERA) while recording a career-worst strikeout rate (5.79 per nine) and a personal-best walk rate (1.45). He’s making $4.5MM this season and is set to rake in another $5.5MM in 2017.
  • The Indians could try to upgrade their bullpen by acquiring a left-hander or a dominant late-inning arm, but two factors are working against them: Other contenders will be in the hunt for similar help, and the Indians are “notoriously cautious” when discussing trades.
  • The Phillies are prepared to deal right-hander Jeremy Hellickson if a solid offer comes along, though they’re also focused on limiting the innings thrown by some of the younger members of their rotation. Thanks to Charlie Morton’s season-ending injury, the 28-year-old Hellickson is now the elder statesman of a Phillies rotation that has been among baseball’s best in 2016. Hellickson, who’s on a $7MM salary and is scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, has put up a 3.99 ERA to accompany significantly improved strikeout and walk rates (9.06 and 2.36, respectively) in 49 2/3 innings this year.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, A’s, Padres, Draft

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Here’s the latest from around baseball as we wrap up the weekend…

  • Will the 2016-17 offseason feature “the worst baseball free agent class in decades”?  Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan thinks so, and the thin number of upper-tier talents available opens the door for the likes of Yoenis Cespedes or Josh Reddick to greatly increase their asking prices if they can build on their hot starts.  Jose Bautista’s slow start shouldn’t hurt his chances of a nine-figure contract given how teams value his “old-man game” built around plate discipline, even if Bautista could end up getting closer to $100MM than his desired $150MM contract.  Even in the thin market, Passan feels Edwin Encarnacion and particularly Carlos Gomez have thus far hurt their value thanks to slow starts.
  • The qualifying offer as we know it may not exist if a new collective bargaining agreement is settled before the offseason begins, though if it remains similar, Passan figures Dexter Fowler, Francisco Cervelli, Ian Desmond and Wilson Ramos could be in position to receive a QO from their respective teams.
  • Rich Hill could even get a qualifying offer if he keeps up his strong season, which speaks to the weakness of the free agent pitching class is with Stephen Strasburg off the board.  Passan thinks Hill could ultimately have a better chance of being traded than issued a QO, however.  The relief pitching market is much stronger than the starting pitching market, as Passan feels Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman could both top Mariano Rivera’s $15MM average annual value from earlier this decade.
  • The thin free agent pitching market could lead to more trades for arms this summer, as ESPN’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) notes in his listing of eight contenders who could deal for pitching and 10 starters who could be shopped.  Bowden’s list of starters including two Athletics (Hill and Sonny Gray) and three Padres (James Shields, Drew Pomeranz and Andrew Cashner).  The A’s have been adamant about keeping Gray, though with his rough start, Bowden wonders if the club could decide to move him while he still has value.  As for the Padres, a scout tells Bowden that of the three San Diego pichers, he would prefer to have Pomeranz, which is a sign of just how much Pomeranz has upped his trade value with his impressive start — a 1.80 ERA and 51 strikeouts through 40 innings.
  • In another subscriber-only piece from Bowden, he gets input from various executives around the league about what improvements could be made to the amateur draft.

AL Notes: Gallardo, Ausmus, Hill

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Orioles righty Yovani Gallardo will have a “light catch” over the weekend, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gallardo hit the DL on April 23rd but is only now apparently set to test out his bothersome shoulder. Even if he’s able to begin progressing back toward the mound, his timetable remains uncertain. And beyond that, Gallardo still will face questions about his ability to remain effective while exhibiting a rather significant velocity decline that apparently preceded his injury.

Here are a few more notes from the American League:

  • Tigers manager Brad Ausmus acknowledges that he is “in the crosshairs” with his team struggling, writes MLive.com’s Aaron McMann. “I knew when I took this job, I was probably going to get fired before I walked away from it,” said Ausmus. “Not this job in particular, but just managing in general. How many managers walk away from a job?” The Tigers are off to a fairly disappointing 14-16 start and suffered through a disastrous bullpen meltdown on Sunday, when Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson combined to serve up seven runs in the eighth inning. Ausmus said he hasn’t heard anything either way from owner Mike Ilitch or GM Al Avila in terms of his job security.
  • Rich Hill has been one of the best stories in the league this season with the A’s, but the Red Sox made an effort to keep around following his September renaissance last season, according to WEEI.com’s John Tomase. Boston offered Hill a one-year, Major League deal on the heels of his four brilliant starts down the stretch, but the money didn’t match up to Oakland’s $6MM, per Tomase’s sources. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski wouldn’t get into any specific details, unsurprisingly, but he did acknowledge that his team made Hill what it felt to be a competitive offer. “We gave him what we felt was a solid offer,” said Dombrowski. “They did better. It’s always easier in hindsight. It’s a situation where we did like him enough to offer him a nice deal, we thought. Oakland really stepped up, and you tip your cap.”

AL West Notes: Gattis, Trout, Calhoun, Hill, Felix

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The Astros have optioned Evan Gattis to Double-A, where he’ll get comfortable behind the plate, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports (links to Twitter). Houston has yet to utilize the 29-year-old as a catcher, but he broke into the league in that position. With the organization one of several struggling with receiving depth, it seems he’ll have a chance to don the tools of ignorance once again. Gattis, who’s off to a rough start at the plate (.213/.269/.328), says that he’s excited at the development. Kaplan suggests that Gattis is unlikely to spend more than the requisite ten days on optional assignment.

Here’s more from the AL West:

  • Angels GM Billy Eppler made clear that the organization is not going to begin entertaining the idea of trading superstar Mike Trout after the awful pitching news received today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. The Halos are looking hard at options for the rotation, he says, and still believes in its chances. “This team was up against a lot of adversity last year and fought to the end,” says Eppler. “We’ve got a lot of character, a lot of the same guys on the club. They will not back down from a fight.” Some aren’t so sure that’s the right approach for the Angels. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs argues that the team’s near-term outlook, depleted farm, and continued payroll constraints provide cause to at least consider taking offers on Trout, who’d surely draw unprecedented trade interest. ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, meanwhile, draws on that piece and looks at a few organizations that could plausibly make a run at a player whose immense productivity and appealing contract make him the single most valuable asset in the sport.
  • The Angels have another quality young outfielder in Kole Calhoun, and Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times profiles his unlikely path to the majors. Long overlooked despite his performances as an amateur, Calhoun has turned into an eighth-round hidden gem for the Halos. “I don’t know what all of professional baseball was thinking,” said former scouting director Eddie Bane. “We were just dumb.”
  • Former Angels prospect Hunter Green is sticking with his plans to retire, Mike DiGiovanna writes for Baseball America. The wiry lefty dealt with significant injury issues, and ultimately decided to hang ’em up after failing to get back on track. While the organization tried to convince him to stick with it, the former second-rounder has apparently decided to move on from the sport.
  • Having seemingly come from out of nowhere to where he is now — a quality starter for the Athletics — Rich Hill’s back story remains of interest. According to Orioles catcher Matt Wieters, Hill showed plenty of signs back when he caught the southpaw in the upper minors, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. “The stuff for a left-hander, I always thought was something you don’t see much with the type of pitches he could throw,” said Wieters.
  • Felix Hernandez has provided the Mariners with typically productive innings, but there’s some cause for real concern, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs writes. The veteran righty has seen his velocity steadily decline in years past, but now he’s experienced a sudden drop-off that’s left him sitting below 90 mph with his average fastball. Meanwhile, he’s also struggling to hit the zone. While Hernandez has thus far managed to generate plenty of soft contact, the 30-year-old certainly doesn’t look like the same pitcher he has been in years past. Whether he can continue to put up ace-like results remains to be seen.

Pending Free Agents Who Improved Their Stock In April

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While the usual “it’s still early” caveat goes without saying, a quick start can be a boon to players in their last year under contract, as it always helps to establish value as soon as possible.  Looking at the lists of position players and pitchers (big tip of the hat to Fangraphs) who are eligible to hit the open market after the 2016 season, some notable names have already done a lot to position themselves for big multi-year deals this winter.  This post won’t focus as much on the upper-tier players who may sit atop the free agent power rankings, but rather the lower- or middle-tier names coming into this season looking to greatly improve their stock.

Dexter Fowler, Cubs: Entering today’s play, Fowler led not just all pending free agents, but all hitters in baseball with 2.0 fWAR in April.  Fowler has only topped the 2.3 fWAR mark once in his career over a full season, which underscores his hot start.  While Fowler isn’t going to keep hitting .347/.474/.613 all year (not to mention a scorching .426 BABIP), a big season will surely put Fowler in much better position as a free agent this winter than last.  Fowler’s market last offseason was greatly impacted by the qualifying offer and teams were reluctant to give up a draft pick for his services, resulting in Fowler eventually re-signing with Chicago on a one-year, $8MM deal that contains a $5MM buyout of a $9MM mutual option for 2017.  It seems very likely that Fowler will decline his end of that mutual option and again look to score a big multi-year commitment.

Michael Saunders, Blue Jays: After tearing his meniscus in Spring Training and missing almost all of the 2015 season, Saunders has rebounded to hit .303/.376/.566 with four homers over 85 plate appearances.  Some regression is inevitable (Saunders has a .365 BABIP) but any stretch of consistent, healthy play is a boon for a player who has dealt with numerous injury woes over his career.  While it seems clear that Saunders’ knee has impacted his baserunning and fielding, his defensive metrics in left field have thus far been not bad (+1.5 UZR/150, -1 Defensive Run Saved) considering the scope of his injury and the long-term effects of having a meniscus actually removed.  Obviously, being a bat-only player entering his age-30 season would greatly hamper Saunders’ free agent stock, so he’ll need to keep displaying at least an average or only a slightly below-average glove to make future suitors comfortable with the idea of using him in the outfield.

Jhoulys Chacin, Braves: One of the few bright spots in a rough Braves season, Chacin has a 3.27 ERA, 9.41 K/9 and 5.75 K/BB rate through four starts and 22 innings.  Chacin signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in order to rebuild his stock following two injury-plagued seasons, so while the early returns have been impressive, he’ll need his shoulder to hold up over the coming weeks and months to really put himself in line for a nice free agent contract.  If Chacin keeps it up, the rebuilding Braves could move him at the trade deadline.

Rich Hill, Athletics:  It took Hill just 29 spectacular innings in 2015 to go from reclamation project to recipient of a one-year, $6MM deal from the A’s in free agency.  With 32 innings now in the books for his 2016 campaign, Hill is still looking good, posting a 2.53 ERA, 11.53 K/9 and 51.3% grounder rate for Oakland.  His BB/9, however, is 3.66 — that’s still a manageable number (particularly given all the strikeouts and grounders Hill is generating), though Hill has battled control problems throughout his career.  If teams are going to offer Hill a multi-year contract for his age-37 season to beyond, they’ll need certainty that Hill’s wildness is mostly behind him.

Cafardo’s Latest: Hanley, Kemp, Braun, Hill, Panda

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Red Sox first baseman Hanley Ramirez, Padres right fielder Matt Kemp and Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun have all helped their respective trade values early this season, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Ramirez is the only one of the three whose offensive production was subpar in April, but Cafardo points to his hustle, enthusiasm and dedication to the team this year as reasons for his improved stock. The 31-year-old Kemp – signed through 2019 at $21.5MM annually – is the most available of the trio, per Cafardo, who adds that he could be a target of the Red Sox if Chris Young doesn’t start playing better. On the notion of acquiring any of them, a National League general manager told Cafardo, “Are they all $20 million-plus players? I’d say not. You’d have to be able to get them for $10 million-$15 million. There are different ways to reach that number through negotiation and the caliber of players you’d have to give up.”

Here’s more from Cafardo:

  • Athletics left-hander Rich Hill followed last season’s torrid September with a great April, during which he threw 26 innings of 2.42 ERA ball while striking out 12.81 batters per nine. Assuming he continues to serve as a quality rotation option, the 36-year-old will be a sought-after arm around the trade deadline, Cafardo reports. Hill is scheduled for free agency at year’s end, but the AL West doesn’t look like a division anyone will run away with and the A’s could be inclined to keep him if they remain in the hunt.
  • Dr. James Andrews’ Monday examination of Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval’s injured shoulder will be “huge” for both the player and the team, Cafardo writes. He doesn’t rule out a club, perhaps the Padres, having interest in Sandoval if the injury is minor. That certainly seems like a long shot, though, given that Sandoval will collect $75MM through 2020 – including a $5MM buyout – has been worth minus-2.2 fWAR in 129 games dating back to last season, and has a major weight problem.
  • Outfielder Grady Sizemore remains a free agent and has not retired, agent Joe Urban told Cafardo. The 33-year-old posted an .800-plus OPS during the second half of 2015, but he has been a minus player according to fWAR in each of the previous two seasons.

West Notes: Rockies, Garcia, Hill, Gray

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The Rockies have already burned through much of their rotation depth, Nick Groke and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post write. Injuries, poor performance, and roster pressures have conspired to leave the club scrambling for arms despite seemingly entering the year with plenty of volume (to go with plenty of questions, of course). It remains to be seen whether former top prospect Eddie Butler will get a crack at a starting gig, as he’s slated for pen duty initially, but he’ll be one of several arms that the Rockies will need to contribute if the club is to stay in contention.

Here’s more from out west:

  • Dodgers right-hander Yimi Garcia still hasn’t picked up a baseball since landing on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis this past weekend, tweets J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group. While Garcia has yet to undergo an MRI, that’ll be the next step for him if he doesn’t improve in the relatively near future. The 25-year-old Garcia has a surrendered three runs through 8 1/3 innings this season, though he’s struck out just four batters after whiffing 68 men in 56 2/3 innings last season.
  • The Athletics have been rewarded handsomely thus far for their roll of the dice on veteran journeyman Rich Hill, and ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield believes that Oakland will continue to receive good work from the lefty. As Schoenfield explains, Hill has continued to show elite swing-and-miss numbers with his fastball, which he pairs with a frequently used curve. Indeed, Hill has picked up right where he left off last year: though his walks have crept up a bit, he is striking out 12.8 batters per nine and inducing grounders on more than half of the balls put in play against him, with metrics supporting his 2.42 ERA in 26 frames.
  • Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney wonders whether there could be a “perfect storm” that allows the Athletics to cash in on ace Sonny Gray. It’s looking like a seller’s market, both at the deadline and next winter, and Gray could stand out. It’s far from clear whether the A’s will have strong interest in striking a trade, of course, but it’s easy to imagine widespread demand. And as Olney notes, this summer could well prove a high-water mark for the righty’s value.

AL West Notes: Weaver, Parker, Hill, Mariners’ Bullpen

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Angels right-hander Jered Weaver experienced tightness in his neck this morning and underwent an MRI that is being described as precautionary, tweets MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. While a fair number of players have undergone such tests and checked out just fine early in spring, there’s been some added concern surrounding Weaver given the fact that his fastball didn’t top 80 mph in his second spring outing, during which he served up three homers and yielded a total of five runs on six hits and a walk without a strikeout in 2 2/3 innings. Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times was among the reporters to speak to Weaver following yesterday’s start, with Weaver telling the media, “I wake up every day hoping this is the day that it’s going to click, and it just hasn’t happened yet.” Weaver voiced confidence that he can retire hitters even with diminished velocity, but after averaging 83-84 mph on his heater last season, the former ace’s velocity figures to be an ongoing point of intrigue. Weaver is earning $20MM in the final season of a five-year, $85MM contract in 2016.

Elsewhere in the AL West…

  • Jarrod Parker’s uphill battle to return from a pair of Tommy John surgeries and a fractured epicondyle in his right elbow appears to have hit a snag, per Matt Kawahara of the Sacramento Bee. The Athletics right-hander, facing live hitters for the first time today, left the mound “yelling in pain” after throwing a pitch, Kawahara tweets. Pitching coach Curt Young, somewhat surprisingly, told Kawahara (Twitter link) that he “thinks” Parker will be OK, though he declined to go into any detail. A bullpen role for Parker had been the club’s preference for Parker, club sources told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, but Young did term the incident a “setback,” and the A’s have announced the injury as a “lateral elbow impingement,” via John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group (Twitter link). Parker is headed for an MRI, per Hickey. MLB.com’s Jane Lee tweets that this injury is less severe than his previous maladies, as he currently has range of motion in his elbow.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looks at the improbable (and that adjective is underselling the story) comeback of left-hander Rich Hill, who signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Athletics this offseason on the heels of four brilliant September starts in Boston. Hill was granted his release from a minor league deal with the Nationals this past June and began working on throwing over the top for the first time after years of working more from a side-arm angle. Hill told his agent that he wanted an opportunity to start, and, finding no opportunities even with a Triple-A club, took to the independent Atlantic League to find a spot in the rotation. Hill parlayed that into a spot in the Red Sox’ Triple-A rotation and only received a call-up in September when Steven Wright suffered an injury. Four starts and a 1.55 ERA (with a 36-to-5 K/BB ratio in 29 innings) later, Hill says he received interest from 20 teams as a free agent and actually turned down an offer for more money than the $6MM he landed from the A’s.
  • Mariners relievers Evan Scribner and Ryan Cook are likely ticketed for the disabled list to begin the 2016 season, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Each right-hander is dealing with a strained lat muscle in his back, per GM Jerry Dipoto, who said the news was actually better than he’d been expecting.
  • The outlook on Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen, however, is considerably less favorable, Dutton notes. The former No. 2 overall pick is again on the shelf due to shoulder pain, and manager Scott Servais said he “[doesn’t] see” when Hultzen could get into a game. Hultzen has been working exclusively as a reliever, but he experienced a setback recently, per Servais. One anonymous club official simply told Dutton that Hultzen’s status is “not good.” Dutton writes that the slew of injuries makes it easier for Joel Peralta to make the roster out of Spring Training, also reporting that Peralta is able to elect free agency late in camp if he is informed that he will not make the roster.

Cafardo’s Latest: Gallardo, Dunn, Gordon, Maeda, Rays, Hill

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Nick Cafardo shares his Cooperstown ballot and some hot stove items in his latest column for the Boston Globe…

  • Alan Nero, Yovani Gallardo’s agent, said he had talked with teams over the last week but nothing has moved forward with his client’s situation.  The Royals, Astros and Orioles were all linked to Gallardo two weeks ago, and since those teams are also finalists for Scott Kazmir’s services, Cafardo figures the two pitchers have somewhat shared markets at the moment.
  • It’s looking as if the Marlins may trade lefty Mike Dunn, as Miami has received interest in the reliever.  Dunn posted a 4.50 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 2.24 K/BB rate over 54 innings in 2015, a bit of a down year following very good seasons in 2013-14.  ERA indicators and advanced metrics, however, don’t show too much of a difference between Dunn in 2014 and 2015 aside from an increase in home run rate (6% to 11.1%) and walk rate (3.47 to 4.83).  Dunn battled severe control problems early in his career, and Cafardo says that Dunn’s rise in walk rate has scared a few teams away.  The southpaw is entering the last year of a two-year extension that will pay him $3.45MM in 2016.
  • Alex Gordon “prefers to stay in Kansas City, though that dream may be fading.”  According to reports earlier in the week, the Royals offered Gordon a four-year deal worth around $12MM-$13MM per season, and Gordon’s agents told the club that it has “no chance” of re-signing him at the moment.
  • The Dodgers are seen as the favorites for Kenta Maeda given their need for pitching, though Cafardo also says L.A. is looking at trading for Jake Odorizzi “and/or” Alex Cobb from the Rays.  Odorizzi has already been linked to the Dodgers in rumors and I would have to think that Los Angeles would just target one Rays pitcher since the prospect cost for both would be overwhelming (even if Cobb will miss at least half of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery).
  • Rich Hill tells Cafardo that the Athletics’ “immediate” and persistent interest, pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum and the presence of pitching coach Curt Young (Hill’s former pitching coach in Boston) all factored into his decision to sign a one-year, $6MM contract with Oakland.  Hill also noted that the A’s are “giving me a chance to make those 32 starts,” and according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan at the time of the signing, Hill turned down a larger offer from another team due to Oakland’s promise of a regular rotation spot.

Athletics Designate A.J. Griffin

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The Athletics have designated righty A.J. Griffin for assignment, the club announced. His 40-man spot will go to just-signed lefty Rich Hill, whose deal is now official.

The 27-year-old Griffin hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013, when he threw an even 200 innings and worked to a 3.83 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. He’s been hit hard by arm injuries since, though he tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link) that he is no longer experiencing the shoulder tightness that plagued him after his Tommy John surgery.

There will certainly be clubs with interest in taking a shot at Griffin, though it remains to be seen whether any will be willing to give him a 40-man spot (and/or send anything Oakland’s way for his rights). Griffin was able to return to make four rehab starts last year, so teams have had a chance to see him throw recently.

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