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Kevin Gausman Expects To Be Ready For Regular Season

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Kevin Gausman is one of a few Blue Jays pitchers who has been a bit behind this spring. The Jays scratched him from a throwing session on Monday as he dealt with “general fatigue” in his throwing shoulder. While any mention of shoulder discomfort for a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber will raise some concern, it doesn’t appear to be an issue that’ll carry into the year.

Manager John Schneider said yesterday the Jays were hopeful to have their ace working off a mound again by next Monday. In an appearance on SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio with Steve Phillips and Xavier Scruggs this afternoon, Gausman downplayed any concern. “Just had to slow it down a little bit and not jump in to facing hitters right away, but I’ll be ready for the regular season,” he said.

There are just under three weeks until Opening Day. Gausman, if healthy and fully built up, would get the call for that tilt against the Rays. The Jays certainly aren’t going to force the issue for a largely symbolic honor, so they could elect to hold off his season debut until their series opener against the Astros on April 1.

That would likely leave the Opening Day assignment to Chris Bassitt. He and Gausman will be joined in the season-opening starting five by José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi. The Jays expected Alek Manoah to secure the fifth starter role entering camp, but he has been delayed by shoulder soreness. If he’s not available to start the season, righty Bowden Francis seems the likeliest candidate to step in. Francis pitched to a 1.73 ERA over 20 MLB appearances in long relief last year. He has never started a big league game but reached as many as four innings out of the bullpen. Francis has started two of three spring appearances, working eight frames of three-run ball with 10 strikeouts.

Mitch White must also make the MLB roster or be offered to other teams, as he has exhausted his minor league options. He has worked in a swing capacity at the big league level and owns an ERA just under 5.00 over 161 1/3 MLB innings. Unlike Francis, White is off to a rocky start to the spring. He has walked six with just a pair of strikeouts in six innings spanning three relief outings. He’d probably be ticketed for long relief if Francis grabs the fifth starter spot.

Offseason signee Yariel Rodríguez and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann could factor into the rotation mix over the course of the year. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet wrote last night that neither player is viewed as a realistic candidate to break camp, however. Rodríguez sat out last season after pitching in the World Baseball Classic as he waited for MLB to declare him a free agent. Tiedemann had a pair of stints on the minor league injured list and was limited to 44 innings over 15 appearances across four levels.

The Jays will need to be cautious with the workloads for both pitchers, an easier task if they open the year in Triple-A. They’ve each been a little behind in camp. Rodríguez has battled back spasms and Tiedemann was delayed by leg inflammation. Neither injury is serious and both pitchers should soon see game action.

Blue Jays Notes: Swanson, Rotation, Clement

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Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson has recently been dealing with a scary situation, as it was announced last week that his son Toby was struck by a car and had to be airlifted to hospital. Thankfully, it seems things have progressed well since then. Swanson spoke with members of the media today, including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, passing along the good news. “I stand here, very happily, telling you that in the next day or two, he should probably be going home.”

Toby’s health is obviously more important than baseball, but it sounds as though Swanson may be able to start turning his attentions back to his upcoming season. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet relays that Swanson threw about 20 pitches today at the club’s complex and is on track to be ready for Opening Day, though he may throw another side session before getting into an organized game. Swanson made 69 appearances for the Jays last year, earning four saves and 29 holds while posting a 2.97 ERA.

Turning to the Toronto rotation, a few question marks have popped up here in camp as both Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah were slowed by some shoulder soreness. The depth was also a bit of a concern, as Yariel Rodríguez was dealing with some back spasms while prospect Ricky Tiedemann was battling inflammation in his calf and hamstring.

As of today, three of those four appear to be progressing in a positive direction, with Manoah being the exception. Per Matheson, Manoah’s shoulder is still sore and he wasn’t able to throw today’s scheduled bullpen session. His recent MRI didn’t show any structural damage but the delays from the continued discomfort are starting to put his readiness for the start of the season in question.

Elsewhere, the news is more positive. Per Nicholson-Smith, the Jays are hopeful that Gausman can be throwing off a mound by Monday and start building up for the season. Tiedemann will be starting Saturday’s game, per Matheson, which could allow him to be almost fully built up by Opening Day. As for Rodríguez, Francys Romero relays that he’s feeling better and will throw live BP tomorrow, with game action to follow if all goes well.

The Jays figure to open the season with José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi in three rotation spots. Gausman and Manoah would join them if they were healthy but it sounds as though that’s unlikely to be the case with Manoah and at least somewhat uncertain with Gausman. Both Bowden Francis and Mitch White are getting stretched out in spring and could step into a rotation spot to start the year. If only one is needed, White is out of options but Francis still has one option year remaining. That could give White a leg up but he could also find himself in the bullpen as a long reliever if Francis takes the job.

Rodríguez and Tiedemann will be battling Francis and White for innings as well but they may be held back by their spring delays and general workload concerns. Rodríguez had been working as a reliever in Japan and didn’t pitch at all in 2023 after the World Baseball Classic as he waited to be released from his NPB contract. Tiedemann dealt with various injuries last year and only tossed 47 innings in the minors, followed by 18 more in the Arizona Fall League. The Jays would likely prefer to be cautious with both of them as opposed to rushing them into a season-opening big league jobs.

Elsewhere on Toronto’s roster, the Jays are facing an interesting decision with infielder Ernie Clement, as laid out in a column from Nicholson-Smith. Clement has long been considered a glove-first player but seemed to take a step forward offensively last year. He hit .380/.385/.500 in his 52 big league plate appearances and .348/.401/.544 in Triple-A.

He likely won’t be able to sustain the .391 batting average on balls in play he ran in the majors last year or even the .338 mark he had in Triple-A, as major league average was .297 in 2023. But he clearly has a knack for putting the bat on the ball as he hardly ever strikes out. He was punched out just 7.7% of the time in the big leagues last year and just 5% of the time in Triple-A.

Even passable offense can make him a solid bench piece, since he’s considered a quality defender at multiple positions, having lined up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners in his career. But he’s now out of options and can’t be sent down. The Jays will need at least one bench spot for a catcher and then may need others for guys like Davis Schneider, Daniel Vogelbach, Spencer Horwitz, Nathan Lukes or Santiago Espinal.

Nicholson-Smith speaks to a scout from a rival club who suggests Clement would likely draw interest if the Jays tried to pass him through waivers but that he might be kept around as a backup to shortstop Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays Notes: Chapman, Manoah, Tiedemann, Rodriguez

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Matt Chapman’s tenure with the Blue Jays ended for good when the third baseman signed with the Giants yesterday, scuttling any chances of a possible return to Toronto.  The Blue Jays’ additions of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility that Chapman and the Jays could perhaps reach some sort of deal, especially since we just saw Cody Bellinger (like Chapman, a Boras Corporation client) re-sign with his former team on a short-term contract with multiple opt-outs.

The Jays had also been linked to Chapman’s market earlier this winter, and their interest in retaining Chapman dated back well before he entered free agency.  Back in November, TSN’s Scott Mitchell reported that Chapman had at some point turned down an extension offer worth more than $100MM over four or five years.  Mitchell added more detail in a post on X earlier today, saying the Blue Jays’ offer was actually a six-year pact worth $120MM.

Chapman ended up with a three-year, $54MM guarantee from San Francisco, and the third baseman can opt out of the deal after either the 2024 or 2025 seasons.  Based on sheer dollar value alone, it is easy to second-guess Chapman’s decision to reject Toronto’s extension offer at the moment, though six years and $120MM would’ve seemed like something of a bargain for Chapman for much of the 2023 campaign.  Even though a finger injury contributed to Chapman’s big dropoff at the plate late in the season, MLBTR still projected him to land six years and $150MM this winter, owing to both his still-excellent defensive play, his outstanding advanced metrics, and the lack of position-player depth in the rest of the free agent class.

However, a bustling market never really seemed to develop.  The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants ended up being the only teams publicly linked to Chapman, and the third baseman ultimately chose the shorter-term deal with San Francisco, with the opt-out giving him a chance for a quick re-entry into free agency next offseason.  He’ll bank $20MM in salary from the Giants before making that decision, and a more consistent 2024 season will likely position Chapman for a more lucrative long-term deal (and he won’t be attached to qualifying-offer compensation).  While simply signing that extension with the Blue Jays would’ve erased any of this future uncertainty, Chapman seems willing to bet on himself in having a better platform year.

From Toronto’s perspective, it isn’t known if the Jays (or any other teams) had also floated this type of player option-heavy shorter-term deal to Chapman at any point.  If the Blue Jays were indeed out of Chapman, Mitchell wonders if payroll constraints might have been a factor, as the Jays are on pace for their second straight year with a club-record payroll, as well as a second year over luxury tax overage.  RosterResource estimates Toronto’s tax number at around $248.6MM, and re-signing Chapman to an $18MM average annual value would’ve put Toronto well over the second tier ($257MM) of luxury tax penalization, and inching closer to the third tier that begins at $277MM.

It could be that the Jays are satisfied enough with Kiner-Falefa, Turner, and the in-house infield options that they were comfortable moving on from Chapman even at a reduced price tag.  Or, perhaps the Jays did make Chapman a similar offer to the Giants’ contract, but Chapman simply preferred to return to the Bay Area and re-unite with Bob Melvin, his old manager from his days with the Athletics.

Turning to some news from the Blue Jays’ spring camp in Dunedin, manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Alek Manoah won’t throw for a few days after feeling some soreness in his right shoulder during a bullpen session.  An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Manoah will be re-evaluated in a few days’ time.  According to Schneider, Manoah said his shoulder felt “a bit cranky, so we wanted to be extra careful at this point.”

While there isn’t any indication that the injury is anything more than basic soreness, the shoulder issue adds to Manoah’s status as the biggest question mark on the Blue Jays roster.  After seemingly breaking out as a frontline pitcher in 2021-22, Manoah struggled badly in 2023, posting a 5.87 ERA in 87 1/3 big league innings.  Manoah spent the offseason under a changed nutrition and training plan, but his first spring outing wasn’t promising, as he allowed four runs on three hits and three hit batters over 1 2/3 innings last Tuesday.

Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are Toronto’s top four starters, with Manoah somewhat tentatively penciled into the fifth spot.  Bowden Francis seems like the top candidate on the depth chart should any holes open in the rotation, with Schneider also citing Mitch White and non-roster invite Paolo Espino.  Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is more likely to begin the season at Triple-A, and Tiedemann is only getting back to regular prep work after missing some time with minor inflammation in his calf and hamstring.

Yariel Rodriguez is another new face in camp, as the right-hander is looking to make his MLB debut after signing a five-year, $32MM free agent contract.  Apart from the World Baseball Classic, however, Rodriguez didn’t pitch in 2023, as he spent the year preparing to jump to the majors after spending his first eight pro seasons in the Cuban Serie Nacional and with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons.

Given this long layoff, it isn’t surprising that Rodriguez has some rust, and Schneider told Sportsnet and other media yesterday that Rodriguez had some back spasms earlier in camp that delayed his prep work.  The righty is slated to throw a bullpen session today and is “feeling 100 per cent right now,” according to Schneider.  “That was kind of our plan, to take it slow and really get him acclimated.  But he should have enough time to hopefully ramp up to multiple innings when he does get into games,” the manager said.

Blue Jays Announce Yariel Rodriguez Deal, Designate Otto Lopez For Assignment

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After a lengthy wait, the Blue Jays have formally announced their signing of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. It’s a five-year, $32MM deal for Rodriguez, per the team, as opposed to the four years and $32MM that was previously reported. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Toronto has designated utilityman Otto Lopez for assignment. Rodriguez is jointly represented by WME and Born To Play.

Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic reports that the fifth year on Rodriguez’s contract is a player option valued at $6MM. If Rodriguez declines that option, the team will then have the ability to exercise a $10MM club option. That could take the contract to $36MM over five years, though Francys Romero reports that the total money can climb as high as $40MM, which suggests there are some additional incentives baked into the arrangement.

It’s been more than three weeks since Rodriguez and the Jays agreed to terms on a contract, but he’s been unable to finalize the pact while awaiting a visa allowing him to enter either Canada or the United States. The expectation has been that whenever Rodriguez acquired the requisite documentation to enter either country, a physical would be completed and the deal would be finalized in short order.

Just 26 years old, Rodriguez has starred for los Ganaderos de Camaguey in his native Cuba and for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. His work in NPB, in particular, caught the eye of Major League scouts, and with good reason. Rodriguez’s 3.03 ERA in three seasons with the Dragons is impressive on its own, but his most recent season featured 54 2/3 overwhelmingly dominant innings: a 1.15 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate out of the Chunichi bullpen.

It should be noted, of course, that those numbers came during the 2022 NPB season — not in 2023. Rodriguez pitched for Team Cuba during last year’s World Baseball Classic but did not return to the Dragons for the 2023 season as he set his sights on a move to Major League Baseball. The Dragons placed him on the restricted list for the 2023 season and granted him his release in early November. He’s since hosted multiple showcases for MLB teams and been viewed as one of the more fascinating free agents on the market.

Of course, Rodriguez is also one of the most volatile free agents in play this winter; it’s hard enough to project how much of a player’s success in the Cuban National Series and/or in NPB might carry over to an MLB setting — but that’s all the more complicated when he didn’t even pitch during the preceding season outside of a brief WBC appearance. There’s a good bit of upside, to be sure, but given the long layoff, acclimation to a new culture and step up in overall level off competition, there’s a wide range of plausible outcomes for Rodriguez in MLB — specifically in his first season.

It’s not yet clear just what role Rodriguez will fill with the Jays. He made some starts in NPB but worked primarily as a reliever — exclusively so in his final season with the Dragons. Back in Cuba, be worked primarily out of the Camaguey rotation. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins issued a statement today praising Rodriguez’s ability to generate swings and misses before noting that he provides “starting depth” but could also fill multiple roles on the team.

Given Rodriguez’s lengthy layoff from pitching — and even lengthier layoff from working a full starting pitcher’s workload — it’d be a surprise to see him jump right into the Jays’ rotation. In all likelihood, he’ll be on an innings cap this year, and it’s even possible that Toronto could want to get him some work in Triple-A before thrusting him into the MLB spotlight. Logically speaking, it’s natural to think he could fill a long relief/spot starter role and build up innings this year, with an eye toward stepping into the 2025 rotation on a more permanent basis. But, if the Jays have a need in the late innings Rodriguez clearly has the raw stuff to pitch in that type of leverage role as well.

Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser profiled Rodriguez and several other international free agents (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, Jung Hoo Lee, Yuki Matsui, Woo Suk Go) earlier in the offseason, writing that Rodriguez’s fastball sits around 96 mph and can reach triple digits on occasion. Glaser credited the hard-throwing Rodriguez with an above-average slider but called his splitter “fringy” and his curveball “below-average.” The Jays could certainly help the 6’1″ Rodriguez refine some of those offspeed offerings, but even if he’s operating with “only” a plus heater and above-average slider, that could be enough to make him a viable big league setup man or multi-inning reliever.

As for the 25-year-old Lopez, he’ll now be traded or placed on outright waivers within the coming week. The right-handed hitter has appeared in the big leagues sparingly over the past two seasons, collecting six singles in ten at-bats. Lopez looked to be on the cusp of breaking through to the majors for a larger opportunity when he batted .297/.378/.415 in 391 Triple-A plate appearances in 2022, but his bat took a sizable step back in 2023, evidenced by a tepid .258/.313/.343 slash in 346 plate appearances at that same level.

Scouting reports on Lopez have touted his plus hit tool and speed, but he has bottom-of-the-scale power, evidenced by the fact that he’s never topped five homers in a season and has just seven long balls in 931 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s swiped 90 bases in 518 minor league games but has only a 70.8% success rate. Lopez has seen time at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield, but skeptics question whether he has the arm to play on the left side of the infield.

Because he’s out of minor league options, Lopez would’ve needed to make the Blue Jays Opening Day roster or else be traded elsewhere or placed on waivers (likely following a DFA). The Jays made the move proactively rather than carry Lopez throughout spring training. He’ll now be available to the other 29 clubs via trade or waivers, but any team that acquires him will need to carry Lopez on its own Opening Day roster or else try to pass Lopez through waivers before sending him down to the minors.

Blue Jays Reportedly In Agreement With Yariel Rodríguez

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The Blue Jays and right-hander Yariel Rodríguez have agreed on a contract, per reporter Francys Romero. The details aren’t known but Romero says that the WME client is expected to have his physical in Toronto in the coming days. It was reported yesterday that the Jays were optimistic about signing the righty but that immigration issues needed to be sorted out. As he’s now apparently headed to Canada, it would appear those issues have been resolved. Toronto has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this deal official. Per Romero, the agreement is for four years and $32MM.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic confirms that there is an agreement but adds that immigration hurdles remain. Enrique Rojas of ESPN reports (Spanish-language ESPN link and X post) that Rodríguez will actually do his physical in The United States but is waiting for a visa that will allow him to enter that country from the Dominican Republic.

Rodríguez, 27 in March, has been an interesting wild card of this offseason. He had pitched as a starter at the beginning of his career in Cuba but then was moved to the bullpen during a three-year stint in Japan. He then briefly returned to a starting role for Cuba in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, then didn’t return to his club in Japan. He was eventually granted his release and has been holding showcases for MLB clubs.

Players coming to North America from leagues in other countries will often have wide ranges of evaluations from MLB clubs. Given the unusual path of Rodríguez, that variance might be even higher than normal. An optimistic club could look to his youth, past work as a starter and strong results as a reliever in 2022. But on the pessimistic side of things, the righty hasn’t worked as a starter in many years and hardly pitched at all in 2023, which gives him an uncertain path forward. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Rodríguez could secure a four-year, $32MM deal.

He began his career in the 2015-16 season of the Cuban National Series when he was just 18 years old. He pitched in 91 games in that league over multiple seasons, starting 72 of those and posting a combined earned run average of 3.30 in 464 1/3 innings. For the 2020 season, he signed with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. That club kept him in the bullpen over the next three seasons. He tossed 175 1/3 innings in that time with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 25.4% of opponents while walking 10.4% of them. His 2022 campaign was especially impressive, with a 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 innings, striking out 27.5% of opponents while walking just 8.3%. He made two starts in the WBC, throwing 7 1/3 innings with 10 Ks but six walks.

Rodríguez got plenty of interest this offseason, with many clubs attending his showcases. The Rays, Red Sox, Padres, Astros, Pirates, Yankees and Reds all were connected to him at various points, with some viewing him as a starter while others considered him a better fit as a reliever. The Jays were one of the clubs that viewed him as a capable starter and they appeared to emerge as the favorite to land him in recent weeks.

The Jays came into the winter with their pitching staff in decent shape while their lineup seemingly needed more attention. But adding some pitching was also still a consideration for the club, as shown by their interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell. The Jays have four rotation spots spoken for, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all still with the club for 2024.

But the final spot in the rotation is a bit more murky. Alek Manoah had a rotation job coming into last year but struggled badly enough that he was twice optioned to the minors. Hyun Jin Ryu returned from his Tommy John surgery rehab midseason and supplanted Manoah in the rotation, but then reached free agency at season’s end.  The relationship between Manoah and the Jays may not be perfect after last year’s struggles but he was still considered to have an edge on a rotation spot not too long ago.

Manoah’s name has also been in some trade rumors this winter and it’s possible that bringing Rodríguez aboard makes a deal more likely. But as mentioned, Rodríguez didn’t pitch last year after the WBC and was working as a reliever for the previous three seasons. The Jays likely don’t expect him to suddenly pitch 200 or even 150 innings this year without issue, meaning he might be more of a long-term project. It’s entirely possible that they keep Manoah and then have Rodríguez working multi-inning stints out of the bullpen with an eye on a larger workload in 2025 and beyond.

They also have other potential starters on the roster, such as Mitch White, Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons. Not yet on the roster but in the mix is prospect Ricky Tiedemann, who is on the cusp of the majors after he reached Triple-A last year. However, injuries limited him to just 62 innings for the year, between the minors and then a stint in the Arizona Fall League. Similar to Rodríguez, he will likely have some sort of workload limit in front of him this year.

There are still a few unanswered questions for the Jays. How Rodríguez looks in spring and then how he proceeds throughout the year will undoubtedly impact the answers to those questions. If he becomes a viable starter going forward, he can help the Jays absorb some upcoming departures. Kikuchi is slated for free agency after 2024, Bassitt after 2025 and Gausman after 2026. If that doesn’t pan out, the club will be hoping for a fallback plan of him settling in as an asset in their bullpen. Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for free agency after 2024 while each of Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera are slated for the open market after 2025.

If the Jays have enough confidence in Rodríguez and the rest of their staff, perhaps they can use it to address their lineup in some way. They lost Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield to free agency a few months ago and have thus far made one addition by signing glove-first utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The club can still sign free agents, with each of Chapman, Belt and Merrifield still being available, but it’s possible the budget is getting tight. Roster Resource estimates the club’s payroll is at $221MM, just a bit above last year’s $215MM, with their competitive balance tax figure at $231MM. The club’s CEO/president Mark Shapiro had previously indicated this year’s payroll would likely be similar to last year’s. The details of the deal for Rodríguez still aren’t known but the club will be pushed further beyond last year’s payroll. Their CBT number will also surely wind up over the $237MM base threshold.

A trade could allow the club to get another bat or two without having to pay open-market prices for current free agents, but it’s also possible there’s still more spending capacity for a free agent addition. The club has been connected to sluggers like Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez and others.

Blue Jays Reportedly Optimistic About Signing Yariel Rodríguez

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The Blue Jays are optimistic about landing right-hander Yariel Rodríguez, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That meshes with reporting last month from Enrique Rojas of ESPN, who said that the Jays had “taken the lead” in the righty’s market. Per today’s report from Rosenthal, immigration issues have prevented the deal from being made official. It’s unclear what exactly those issues are or when they are expected to be resolved.

Rodríguez, 27 in March, started his career in his home country of Cuba. He pitched in the Cuban National Series starting in the 2015-16 season when he was just 18 years of age. He eventually pitched in 91 games in that league, starting 72 of them, posting a combined earned run average of 3.30 over 464 1/3 innings.

He joined the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2020 season, though that club kept him in a relief role. His three NPB seasons resulted in 175 1/3 innings with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 25.4% of batters faced while walking 10.4%. In 2022, he seemed to find a new gear, with a 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 innings, striking out 27.5% of opponents while walking just 8.3%.

He pitched for Cuba in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and then didn’t return to Japan. While he was able to secure his release from the Dragons and be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, he wasn’t able to pitch in official games last year after the WBC.

He has received widespread interest this offseason, with some clubs viewing him as capable of returning to a starting role. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted he could secure a four-year, $32MM contract. That’s roughly in the same ballpark as a couple of other pitchers who are possibly moving from the bullpen to a rotation. Reynaldo López signed with Atlanta for three years and $30MM while Jordan Hicks landed with the Giants for $44MM over four. Both of those pitchers have been effective relievers in recent years but will try to get stretched out as starters this spring.

The appeal of Rodríguez would likely be similar. If he turns out to be a viable starter, it would be a boon for the club that signs him, with a relief role serving as an acceptable fallback plan. Rodríguez might be a bit of a long-term project as a starter after missing out on the 2023 season, making a sudden jump to a full-time starter’s workload a tall ask.

The Jays already have four fifths of this year’s rotation spoken for, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all returning from last year’s club. The fifth spot is more open, with Hyun Jin Ryu now a free agent. Alek Manoah was a Cy Young candidate as recently as 2022 but it’s unclear how much faith the club has in him right now. The 2023 season saw him struggle and get optioned to the minors twice, which seemed to sour the relationship between him and the club. He may still be the favorite for the final rotation job but his name has also appeared in plenty of trade rumors this offseason. Prospect Ricky Tiedemann reached Triple-A last year and could be nearing his major league debut but was only able to log 44 innings on the year due to injury, plus another 18 in the Arizona Fall League. Mitch White and Bowden Francis could be in the mix as well but neither has a lengthy major league track record.

It’s plausible that Rodriguez could factor into that competition and log some innings in 2024. Kikuchi is slated for free agency after the upcoming campaign, Bassitt after 2025 and Gausman after 2026, which leaves future rotation innings for the Jays to fill. There’s also long-term uncertainty in the bullpen, where Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for free agency after 2024. Meanwhile, each of Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera are slated for the open market after 2025.

The Jays have had a somewhat quiet offseason thus far, in terms of completed deals. They’ve been connected to big names like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but their most notable moves thus far have been to sign utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa and re-sign outfielder Kevin Kiermaier. Roster Resource estimates the club’s payroll is at $221MM, just a bit above last year’s $215MM, with their competitive balance tax figure at $231MM.

The club’s CEO/president Mark Shapiro had previously indicated this year’s payroll would likely be similar to last year’s. Signing Rodríguez and/or some bats to upgrade the lineup would require them to push the payroll a little farther than it already is while also nudging them past the $237MM base threshold of the CBT. The Jays paid the tax for the first time last year and their base tax rate would jump from 20% to 30% as a second-time payor.

Blue Jays Have Reportedly “Taken The Lead” In Yariel Rodriguez Sweepstakes

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After missing out on top free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto earlier this month, the Blue Jays have ramped up activity at the lower levels of the market of late by re-signing center fielder Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year pact and landing utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal in recent days. It appears the club isn’t stopping there, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reported Friday afternoon that the club has “taken the lead” in the sweepstakes for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, who Rojas adds is “close” to making a decision in free agency. It’s hardly a surprise that the Blue Jays have interest in Rodriguez, as a recent report indicated that Toronto was among several teams with interest in the righty.

Rodriguez, 27 in March, is among the most intriguing free agents available on the market this offseason. The right-hander was granted free agency by MLB back in early November after being released from his deal with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez’s professional career began in Cuba during the 2015-16 season, and he spent six seasons pitching primarily as a starter to solid results in his home country before joining the Dragons ahead of the 2020 campaign. Upon arriving in Japan, Rodriguez was moved to the bullpen and broke out in a big way during the 2022 campaign, where he posted a dominant 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate.

Rodriguez participated in the World Baseball Classic in early 2023 as a member of Team Cuba and began to stretch back out as a starter in that series, throwing 7 1/3 innings across two appearances. After the event, Rodriguez declined to report back to the Dragons and sat out the 2023 season before securing his release after the season. Since then, Rodriguez has hosted workouts for a host of MLB clubs in the Dominican Republic, allowing scouts an opportunity to see the right-hander up close.

Whether Rodriguez will be able to stick in the majors as a starter or not has been a point of division among clubs throughout his free agency, though the Blue Jays reportedly fall into the camp that views him as a starting pitcher alongside teams such as the Pirates and Red Sox. While Rodriguez has also received recent interest from the Reds, Padres, and Yankees, each reportedly prefers the right-hander as a reliever. Due in part to that division on whether his future is in the rotation or the bullpen, Rodriguez’s position as the #28 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a deal worth $32MM over four years, is less concrete than other free agents of a similar caliber.

In spite of the uncertainty involved in Rodriguez’s free agency, the Blue Jays are a solid fit for the right-hander’s services. While Toronto has a full rotation on paper with a stable quartet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi, the uncertainty surrounding right-hander Alek Manoah creates a major question mark at the back of the club’s starting staff. Manoah was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award in 2022 with a dominant 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work, but his performance fell off a cliff in 2023 as he managed an ERA of just 5.87 in 19 starts for Toronto as he spent much of the summer in the minor leagues.

By adding Rodriguez to the club’s mix, the Blue Jays add additional starting depth to the club’s mix while also giving Manoah significant competition for the fifth starter role entering the season. If Rodriguez were to either struggle in the rotation or simply be pushed out by the re-emergence of Manoah or a strong debut from top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, he could then be utilized to bolster a bullpen that lost Jordan Hicks to free agency last month. Hicks’s departure leaves open a vacancy at the back of Toronto’s bullpen alongside closer Jordan Romano and set-up man Erik Swanson, where Rodriguez would be an excellent fit if he wound up outside of the club’s preferred rotation mix.

Latest On Clubs’ Interest In Yariel Rodriguez

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December 28: ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (on X) that Boston, Pittsburgh and Toronto have all shown interest in Rodriguez as a starter. Cincinnati, San Diego and the Yankees prefer the right-hander in a relief role. Rojas indicates that Rodriguez prefers to start, although there’s no indication he has officially ruled out any teams targeting him in a bullpen capacity.

December 27: The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams still showing interest in free agent right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, tweets Francys Romero. Last week, Romero reported that the Pirates, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees were also in the running.

Cincinnati hasn’t been frequently tied to Rodriguez throughout the offseason. The Reds were among roughly half the league that sent scouts to evaluate the righty’s throwing session in the Dominican Republic on October 10, a few days after he’d been granted his release from the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. There hasn’t been much to connect the sides since that point, although it’s not especially surprising that Cincinnati is involved on one of free agency’s younger pitchers.

The Reds have made two major league additions to the pitching staff. Swingman Nick Martinez signed for two years and $26MM, while reliever Emilio Pagán inked a two-year, $16MM deal. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated that Martinez will compete for a rotation spot but stopped short of calling him a lock for the season-opening five.

Rodriguez falls into a similar category, as there’s some question about whether he’ll stick in an MLB rotation. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen with the Dragons in his final NPB season in 2022. He turned in a stellar 1.15 ERA while striking out 27.5% of opponents over 54 2/3 innings. His 8.3% walk percentage was right in line with the MLB average.

Despite the strong results in relief, it’s likely whichever MLB team signs Rodriguez will give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He had started in Cuba’s top league before his stint in Japan, and he worked out of the rotation for the Cuban national team during last spring’s World Baseball Classic. Clubs that feel Rodriguez has mid-rotation upside could entertain a noteworthy contract. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke before the beginning of the offseason suggested Rodriguez could land a guarantee between $30MM and $50MM.

The Reds have a projected rotation of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Left-hander Brandon Williamson and Martinez stand as the top competitors for the #5 job. Aside from Martinez, it’s a generally young group. They’ve all shown promise at the MLB level, but each of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft battled injuries last season. None of Abbott, Williamson nor Martinez have ever pitched a full season out of an MLB rotation. That’s also true of Rodriguez, of course, but the Reds could view his youth and ability to work multiple innings as a strong fit as they move firmly into win-now mode after their 2022 retool.

Boston has been linked to Rodriguez more frequently throughout the winter. The 6’1″ hurler held a workout in front of Sox’s and Padres’ evaluators last month. Boston is casting a wide net on the rotation front. While they’ve been tied to top-of-the-market hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recently wrote they appeared more focused on the middle tiers of the free agent class.

Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, Yankees Continue To Be Interested In Yariel Rodriguez

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Yariel Rodriguez’s market continues to percolate, as the Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Yankees “are still in the bidding for” the right-hander’s services, according to reporter Francys Romero (X link) earlier this week.  Romero’s post came prior to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s deal with the Dodgers, as Romero suggested that Rodriguez’s suitors were first waiting for Yamamoto to sign.

This would seemingly refer to the Yankees and Blue Jays in particular, who were known to be in the running for Yamamoto’s services.  Toronto was a bit more on the periphery of the hunt while the Yankees were seemingly one of three or four finalists, joining the Mets and Giants in falling short of the Dodgers in the bidding for the Japanese ace.  Presumably neither the Yankees or Jays would’ve been in on Rodriguez if they had signed Yamamoto, so the presence of two big spenders still in the market is good news for Rodriguez and his reps at WME Baseball.

It should be noted that Romero didn’t state that these four teams were finalists for Rodriguez, or that any other known suitors were out of the running.  The Astros, Jays, Pirates, and Yankees were all listed among the 10 interested teams in Romero’s initial report about Rodriguez in early November, and that group (which also included the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, and White Sox) has grown to include the Rays, Red Sox, and Padres in subsequent reports.

Rodriguez is something of a wild card in the free agent pitching market, given that he has spent most of his career pitching in Cuba, he worked mostly out of the bullpen with the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2020-22, and he didn’t pitch at all in 2023 (apart from the World Baseball Classic) since he sat out the NPB season trying to get released from his contract with the Dragons.  However, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 27 until March, and there is enough intrigue in his upside as a starter that MLBTR ranked him 28th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $32MM contract.

This price point would put Rodriguez in range for even lower-payroll teams, even if such clubs are taking more of a risk in such a financial commitment for a pitcher with no Major League track record.  For the Pirates specifically, $32MM for Rodriguez would rank as one of the eight most expensive contracts in the franchise’s history, so it would seem rather aggressive for a Bucs team just coming out of a rebuild to suddenly splurge on an unproven arm.  That said, the Pirates are known to be looking for more rotation help, and they could have enough faith in Rodriguez’s upside that they could view something like a $32MM investment as a potential bargain.

International signings have been the backbone of the Astros’ run of success over the last decade, in the form of inexpensive deals for future stars like Jose Altuve or Framber Valdez, or Houston’s more significant investment in a five-year, $47.5MM deal for Yuli Gurriel when he came to the big leagues from Cuba during the 2016 season.  Current Astros general manger Dana Brown naturally wasn’t in change of the front office back in 2016, though he did suggest that his team was looking to add “a legit third starter or better” this offseason, while acknowledging that the Astros were working with a somewhat limited amount of spending space.  Roster Resource projects Houston’s 2024 payroll to sit almost exactly at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which is notable since the Astros have only once (in 2020) exceeded the tax line in their history.

Signing Rodriguez would be an interesting fallback position from Yamamoto for either New York or Toronto.  Rodriguez’s lack of track record wouldn’t necessarily solidify a rotation that already has a couple of injury-related question marks in Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, as well as the unproven Clarke Schmidt as the projected fourth starter.  However, the Yankees might view Rodriguez as an upside play as a de facto fifth starter, or perhaps even a bullpen addition if he doesn’t work out as a starter.

The same could be said about Rodriguez’s possible usage on the Blue Jays’ staff, even if Toronto’s rotation is a little more defined.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi project as the top four, with Alek Manoah penciled in as the fifth starter for now despite all of the uncertainty in the wake of Manoah’s rough 2023 season.  Adding Rodriguez would give the Blue Jays more depth if Manoah can’t bounce back, or perhaps the Jays would then feel more emboldened to trade Manoah or even Kikuchi to address other needs in the lineup.

Yariel Rodriguez Hosts Workout For Red Sox, Padres

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Right-hander Yariel Rodriguez held a private workout today, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the Red Sox and Padres were the two teams with representatives in attendance to watch the righty, who threw two innings during the workout.

Rodriguez, 27 in March, was declared a free agent by MLB earlier this month after he was granted his release by the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez spent three seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Dragons, racking up a 3.03 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 175 1/3 innings during that time. His 2022 campaign with the Dragons was particularly impressive as he dominated to the tune of a microscopic 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 frames, with a 27.5% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate.

After his dominant work in Japan, Rodriguez suited up as a starting pitcher for his home country of Cuba during the World Baseball Classic, during which he struck out ten while allowing two runs on five hits and six walks in 7 1/3 innings of work between his two appearances. Following his appearances in the WBC back in March, Rodriguez sat out the remainder of the 2023 campaign as the Dragons placed him on the restricted list prior to granting the righty his release last month.

Public evaluations of Rodriguez are few and far between thanks to the unusual nature of his free agency, but given his unusual youth for a free agent and dominant numbers overseas, it’s easy to see why teams in need of pitching help would be interested in his services, particularly if they believe he can start in the majors. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez #28 on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list earlier this month, projecting him for a four-year, $32MM contract. Earlier this offseason, Romero relayed a list of ten teams that had shown interest in Rodriguez that included neither Boston nor San Diego, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times indicated that the Rays were among fifteen teams that were represented at a workout held by Rodriguez last month.

It’s unclear what level of interest the clubs connected to Rodriguez thusfar this offseason have in the right-hander, though it’s easy to see how the Red Sox and Padres match up as potential fits. Boston has made it clear that additional starting pitching help is a priority for the club this offseason, including the possibility of pairing a top-of-the-market arm with a second, more affordable piece. Rodriguez could make plenty of sense as a secondary acquisition for Boston. Young arms like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford have all shown an ability to pitch both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, helping to ease the risk involved in signing an arm like Rodriguez, who hasn’t pitched regularly out of the rotation in professional games since 2019.

The Padres, meanwhile, are in need of several starting pitchers after losing Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez to free agency earlier this month. With San Diego reportedly intending to cut payroll this offseason, Rodriguez could make sense as a potentially impactful rotation addition with a lower acquisition cost than top-of-the-market arms like Snell. Rodriguez’s recent history as a bullpen arm seems unlikely to scare San Diego away from a deal with the righty, as Lugo had started just twelve games across his last five seasons of work before making 26 starts with the Padres this year. Martinez also has a history of working both out of the bullpen and in the rotation. His 2023 contract contained incentives accounting for both possibilities, further demonstrating the club’s willingness to get creative when it comes to arms with experience both starting and in relief.

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