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Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach

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The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.

Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.

The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.

Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.

Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.

Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.

While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.

Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.

Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.

If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.

Rays Could Make Multiple Starters Available On Trade Market

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The 40-41 Rays are one of many key teams to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws near. While they’re buried in the American League East and unlikely to close their current 10.5-game deficit, they’re also only four games out of the final American League Wild Card spot. At the same time, Tampa Bay could soon find itself with a growing number of big league starters — more than it has room to plug into its rotation.

Katie Woo, Patrick Mooney and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Tampa Bay is anticipating righty Shane Baz and left-hander Jeffrey Springs will be ready to rejoin the rotation before long; both pitchers are on the mend from Tommy John surgery — Baz’s performed in late 2022 and Springs’ performed early last season. Baz already completed a minor league rehab assignment and has continued building up in Triple-A.

Once regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game, the 25-year-old Baz got out to a rough start during his rehab stint but has now rattled off five starts with a 1.57 ERA and 35-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings. Springs has been on rehab for several weeks as well but has yet to pitch more than 2 1/3 innings in an outing. Prior to his Tommy John procedure, the now-31-year-old Springs had emerged as the latest in a long line of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds for the Rays.

Tampa Bay acquired Springs and righty Chris Mazza in a trade that sent catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez to Boston. At the time, Springs was a journeyman lefty who’d posted a 5.42 ERA over three partial big league seasons. With the Rays, he broke out to the tune of a 2.53 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in 196 innings. Tampa Bay rewarded that breakout with a four-year, $31MM extension — but Springs unfortunately went under the knife just three starts into the 2023 campaign.

With that pair of arms on the mend — to say nothing of righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure just under one year ago — the Rays indeed have a mounting stock of arms. The Athletic trio notes in their report that of the team’s current starters — Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot — Civale and Littell are the likeliest to be available in trades. Both pitchers are in their second year of arbitration eligibility and controlled through the 2025 season. Civale, whom the Rays acquired last summer in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians, is earning $4.9MM this year. Littell, yet another product of the Rays’ almost comical hidden-gem factory (he was claimed off waivers from Boston), is earning just $1.8MM.

Of the two, Littell is enjoying the stronger season but also has the shorter track record. He’s pitched 86 1/3 innings of 4.17 ERA ball with a roughly average 22% strikeout rate against an exceptional 4.3% walk rate. Since the Rays took the former starter-turned-reliever and plugged him back into a rotation role last July, he’s given them 27 starts with a 3.98 earned run average, 20.2% strikeout rate and even more impressive 3.6% walk rate. (I profiled Littell’s breakout in depth earlier this season in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers.)

Civale’s time with the Rays hasn’t gone as the team had hoped when acquiring him last year. He’s posted strong strikeout and walk rates alike, but his sharp K-BB profile has been undercut by a penchant for serving up home runs. The 29-year-old righty has started 26 games for Tampa Bay dating to last summer’s trade but logged a disappointing 5.26 ERA. Despite upping his strikeout rate from 21.1% with the Guards to 25.4% with the Rays and maintaining his terrific command (6.1% walk rate in Cleveland; 6.2% with Tampa Bay), Civale’s ERA has spiked from 3.77 with his former club to 5.26 with his current one. After yielding 1.19 homers per nine frames in five seasons with Cleveland, Civale has been tagged for a troubling 1.56 big flies per nine since heading to St. Petersburg.

There hasn’t been a major change in Civale’s repertoire that’s clearly prompted that flaw. He’s throwing more sliders this year at the expensive of his cutter, but it’s not an overwhelming change in usage rates and the righty is still using the same blend of six pitches (four-seam, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball and the very occasional splitter) that he used late in his Guardians tenure. His velocity has held up as well.

Despite Civale’s struggles this season, there’d be no shortage of teams interested in adding him and/or Littell to their staff for the next season and a half. Both arms are affordable — particularly for teams with CBT concerns — and there established rotation arms in general will be in short supply. That’s all the more true given recent injuries to trade candiates Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Patrick Sandoval. The leaguewide arm shortage could position the Rays to deal from their current rotation and then replace whichever starter is traded with an in-house arm that’s returning from injury.

Darragh McDonald and I discussed this possibility with the Rays on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, also touching on the possibility of the Rays drawing interest in right-hander Zach Eflin. He’s arguably more important to the team’s staff than either Civale or Littell, but he’s also the most expensive starter on the roster. Eflin inked a three-year, $40MM deal in free agency prior to the 2023 season. It’s a heavily backloaded pact that will pay Eflin $18MM in 2025 — a hefty number by the Rays’ typically thrifty standards. With Springs, Baz and Rasmussen all on the mend and able to join young arms like Baz, Bradley and Pepiot in next year’s rotation, the always cost-conscious Rays will presumably be open to listen on Eflin while pondering a similar gamut to the Littell/Civale scenario laid out in The Athletic’s report.

It bears emphasizing that even if the Rays end up selling — or, as they often have in the past, operating on both the “buy” and “sell” side of the market — Sammon, Woo and Mooney report that the front office is not interested in a large-scale rebuild. Even if the Rays fall out of the 2024 race, the plan will be to reload and take aim and contending again in 2025. Given the wealth of young and/or cost-controlled pitching and a perennially deep farm system that keeps churning out interesting young hitters, the Rays likely feel they have the foundation of a contending club largely in place.

As is so often the case this time of year, the Rays appear positioned as one of the teams who will in many ways dictate a fair bit of the deadline’s dealings. Whether they rattle off several wins and thrust themselves into Wild Card position, maintain the status quo as a bubble team or drop further down the standings, their slate of rehabbing quality arms gives them the flexibility to shop current big league arms — be it for other big leaguers in areas of need or near-MLB prospects who can help in 2025.

Rays Place Zach Eflin On Injured List

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The Rays announced a few transactions before this evening’s game against the Red Sox. Zach Eflin landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to yesterday, with lower back inflammation. Brandon Lowe is back from the 10-day IL to take the vacated roster spot. Tampa Bay also optioned reliever Manuel Rodríguez to Triple-A Durham to open a bullpen spot for Richard Lovelady, who has joined the team after being acquired from the Cubs on Saturday.

Eflin has turned in solid results in 10 turns through the rotation. The right-hander is averaging just under six innings per start and has worked to a 4.12 earned run average. While his 17.9% strikeout rate is on track to be his lowest since 2017, he has compensated by essentially never handing out free passes. Eflin has only walked four batters all season, a 1.6% rate that is the lowest among all pitchers with 50+ innings.

The 30-year-old has been one of Tampa Bay’s more valuable pitchers this year, although his performance is a step down from last year’s work. Eflin had a brilliant first season in St. Petersburg, turning in 177 2/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball to earn a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting. He did lose a couple weeks early in the ’23 campaign to lower back tightness, though.

Eflin told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) that this year’s back issue feels similar to last season’s minor injury. Eflin suggested he could be back in around two weeks, while manager Kevin Cash indicated it was likely to be a 2-4 week absence. Tampa Bay has off days on Thursday and next Monday, so they could function with a four-man starting staff of Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Tyler Alexander into next week.

Lowe returns after a nearly six-week absence due to an oblique strain. The second baseman is in the cleanup spot against Tanner Houck tonight. Since Lowe landed on the IL, the Rays have rotated Curtis Mead, Amed Rosario and Richie Palacios through the keystone. Mead struggled enough that he has since been optioned to Triple-A. Palacios and Rosario have each hit well in their first seasons in Tampa Bay. They’re each capable of playing multiple positions and should still see fairly regular playing time around the diamond.

In other injury news, the Rays sent Jeffrey Springs to the Florida Complex League on a rehab assignment. The left-hander threw one inning this afternoon in his first game action since he underwent Tommy John surgery last April. Pitchers are typically allotted 30 days on a rehab stint, but returnees from Tommy John are usually allowed more than a month to build back into game shape. Springs could be ready for MLB action by the second half of June.

Braves Interested In Zach Eflin

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The Braves are “keeping a close eye on” Zach Eflin as a potential trade target prior to the deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.  Rotation help has been circled as a likely need for Atlanta ever since Spencer Strider was lost for the season to an internal brace surgery, and Eflin stands out as a potentially intriguing choice for several reasons.

First and foremost, Eflin is again pitching well in terms of bottom-line results, with a 4.12 ERA over 10 starts and 59 innings.  The right-hander continues to be among the best control specialists in the game with a sterling 1.6% walk rate, though there are some red flags in other notable categories.  Eflin is again among the league leaders in barrels even if his barrel rate is only slightly below average, but his hard-hit ball rate (41.6%) and strikeout rate (17.9%) are also both subpar.  He was well above average in both categories in 2023, when Eflin’s first season in Tampa Bay resulted in a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.

A contender like the Braves won’t necessarily be scared off by Eflin’s 2024 numbers, as they are very familiar with Eflin’s work after dealing with him as a division rival during Eflin’s years with the Phillies.  Durability might also be a concern given Eflin’s long history of knee problems, but he tossed 182 2/3 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs, and had only a brief IL stint due to a bad back.

These are all good reasons why the Rays themselves might naturally want to keep Eflin in their own rotation as they continue to vie for another postseason berth.  Tampa Bay is 11-6 in its last 17 games, a hot streak that has gotten the club back up to a 25-23 record after a mediocre April.  Eflin has also been a stabilizing force in a rotation beset by injuries, even if some reinforcements are on the way.  Ryan Pepiot could return from the 15-day IL this week in his recovery from a leg contusion, Shane Baz (currently on a rehab assignment) and Jeffrey Springs are tentatively expected to return from Tommy John surgery rehab in July or August, and Drew Rasmussen is on roughly the same timeline after he went an internal brace procedure last July.

If at least one of Springs, Baz, or Rasmussen is already back by the deadline and the Rays are comfortable with the recovery status of the others, it is possible Tampa Bay might feel comfortable counting on these internal arms to help fill the gap created by trading Eflin.  It is a risk that most teams might not take, and yet as always with the Rays, payroll could be a factor in their decision-making.  Eflin is in the second season of a three-year, $40MM contract that was paid out as $11MM in both 2023 and 2024, and then $18MM in 2025.  (He also receives a $1MM bonus in the event of a trade.)

Moving Eflin would allow the Rays to avoid the backloaded final portion of that contract, and get the remainder of Eflin’s 2024 salary also off the books.  Even if Eflin isn’t dealt at the deadline, it stands to reason that the Rays might explore moving him this offseason, similar to how the club dealt Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers last winter before Glasnow was owed $25MM in 2024 under the terms of his previous contract.

Acquiring Eflin would also have some interesting payroll implications for a Braves team whose projected luxury tax number (as per RosterResource) sits at approximately $272.5MM.  This is already well into the second tax tier and not far off the third tier that begins at $277MM.  Atlanta hasn’t been shy in spending big in pursuit of another World Series title, but crossing the $277MM threshold carries the secondary penalty of a 10-slot drop for the Braves’ first selection in the 2025 draft.  Eflin being controlled through 2025 might carry some particular for the Braves, however, as Max Fried and Charlie Morton will both be free agents this winter.

Alex Anthopoulos and Erik Neander are two of the most creative executives in baseball, so any number of interesting Atlanta/Tampa trades could be devised that would perhaps allow Eflin to change teams while also allowing the Braves to stay under that third luxury tax tier.  The Rays could eat a larger portion of Eflin’s contract in order to obtain a better prospect return from the Braves, or perhaps a third team could be brought into the talks to balance things out.

Atlanta’s rotation has still been pretty solid even without Strider, as Braves starters entered Sunday with a combined 3.44 ERA (tenth-best in baseball).  Fried, Morton, Chris Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez have all been good to great, though Sale’s durability is always a question mark and Lopez (who has a sparkling 1.34 ERA) is in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020, and he hasn’t tossed more than 66 innings in a season since 2019.  Bryce Elder is the fifth starter and Darius Vines, Allan Winans, Huascar Ynoa, and top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep provide additional depth, though a pitcher like Eflin could be more of a proven commodity for a team with championship aspirations.

Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award

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As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.

There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.

That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.

For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.

Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.

Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Zach Eflin Avoids Injured List, Cleared To Start Tuesday

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Rays fans were bracing for bad news when righty Zach Eflin exited his most recent start after four innings and went for an MRI on his left knee, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that he’s expected to avoid the injured list entirely. Eflin threw a 25-pitch bullpen session over the weekend and is now slated to start Tuesday against the Yankees. He’s not expected to have any limitations on his workload tomorrow.

It’s a sigh of relief for a Rays club that already lost Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the season. A third major injury would’ve surely accelerated Tampa Bay’s pursuit for rotation help, which has been ongoing, but it seems Eflin has avoided an injury of any real note. The right-hander’s chronic knee issues are well known; he’s spoken openly about them in the past, underwent surgery on both knees in 2016 and had a second surgery on his right knee in 2021.

That history of knee issues didn’t dissuade the Rays from making an aggressive bid to sign Eflin in free agency, ultimately inking him on a three-year, $40MM contract. He’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his career, tossing 116 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with a strong 25.2% strikeout rate, a masterful 3.7% walk rate and a career-high 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’ll remain in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and Taj Bradley.

The Rays were in the market for starting pitching help even before Eflin’s injury scare, and it stands to reason they’ll still be poking around that market, albeit with less urgency than if Eflin had endured a significant injury. Tampa Bay has been connected to the Cardinals’ available starters, and while Jordan Montgomery has since been traded to the Rangers, righty Jack Flaherty remains on the block. They were also tied to Marcus Stroman a few weeks ago, but that was before the Cubs rattled off an eight-game winning streak that thrust them back into the competition in the NL Central. He’s now unlikely to be moved. Lance Lynn, another Rays target, has since been traded to the Dodgers.

Even with those misses, there are still several names available. Michael Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale and old friend Rich Hill are just some of the many pitchers whose names have been bandied about the rumor circuit over the past week or so.

Zach Eflin Headed For MRI On Left Knee

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Rays right-hander Zach Eflin exited today’s game after just four innings, and he’s now headed for an MRI after experiencing discomfort in his left knee, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. It’s an ominous development both for a pitcher with chronic knee issues and a Rays rotation that has already been clobbered by injuries in 2023.

Eflin, 29, signed a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $40MM in Tampa Bay this offseason — the largest free-agent expenditure (though not the largest overall contract) in Rays history. He entered play with a 3.36 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and sensational 3.6% walk rate in 112 1/3 innings — already his highest total since 2019. However, Eflin was hit hard today, yielding five runs on seven hits and a walk, and he departed after four innings.

Eflin has spoken openly about his battles with knee problems that date back to before he was even drafted. He underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in both knees back in 2016, and in 2021 he underwent a second surgery on his right knee. Further problems in that right knee sidelined Eflin for more than two months last summer.

That Eflin’s current issue is in his left knee and not his twice-repaired right knee isn’t likely to be a source of much comfort for the Rays and their fans. The team was surely wary of the risk of renewed knee problems when signing Eflin, though his performance to this point in the season does plenty to highlight why the Tampa Bay front office was willing to take that gamble.

The Rays are already dealing with several notable injuries in the rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last September and isn’t expected to pitch in 2023. Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year and won’t return until 2024. Drew Rasmussen’s season is also over, owing to surgery to repair a flexor tear. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 60-day injured list due to an elbow issue.

Tampa Bay is already known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and any absence of note for Eflin would only hasten their pursuits. They’ve been linked to the Cardinals’ rental starters and were reported this morning to be in talks with the White Sox on right-hander Lance Lynn.

With sudden uncertainty regarding Eflin’s health, the Rays’ only three healthy starters are Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and rookie Taj Bradley. It’s a talented trio, but injuries have thinned out the team’s depth and contributed to the Rays’ slide in the standings after a dominant start to the season. President of baseball operations Erik Neander, GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the staff seem all but certain to augment the rotation between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline.

The Rays’ Biggest Free Agent Investment Is Paying Off

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While the Rays aren’t exactly threatening the luxury tax threshold any time soon, the team has been increasingly open to at least some modest spending over the last couple of years.  Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension is obviously the headliner of those moves, but Tampa Bay has also locked up the likes of Jeffrey Springs (four years/$31MM), Yandy Diaz (three years/$24MM), Pete Fairbanks (three years/$12MM), Tyler Glasnow (two years/$30.35MM), and Manuel Margot (two years/$19MM) to multi-year commitments.

These deals were all extensions, however, and thus Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40MM contract from last winter was more of an outlier in franchise history.  The $40MM represented the most money the Rays have ever given to a free agent over the franchise’s 26 seasons of existence.  The Rays’ willingness to make such an expenditure surprised some pundits, for both financial and baseball-related reasons — why was a lower-spending team deep in starting pitching willing to take a relatively big (by their standards) plunge on a starter with a checkered health history?

Three months into the 2023 season, Tampa’s decision is looking quite wise.  In the latest example of the “you can never have too much pitching” credo, the Rays’ rotation depth has been tested by multiple injuries.  Springs underwent Tommy John surgery, and Drew Rasmussen (flexor strain) and Josh Fleming (elbow soreness) are both on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least August.  Glasnow didn’t make his season debut until late May, after recovering from his own rehab from a Tommy John procedure in 2021.

Against the backdrop of these injury concerns, Eflin’s production has been invaluable.  While the righty had a minimum 15-day IL stint himself in April due to back tightness, Eflin has been a stabilizing force within the rotation, and one of many reasons why the Rays have baseball’s best record.

Over 90 1/3 innings this season, Eflin has a 3.29 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate.  The K% is Eflin’s highest over a “full” season (he had a 28.6% strikeout rate over 59 innings in the shortened 2020 campaign), while his walk rate is among the league’s best for the third straight year.  The righty’s 52.7% grounder rate is also a career best, while his 37.8% hard-hit ball rate is (if only slightly) above the league average.  There isn’t much variance between Eflin’s real-world stats and his expected stats, as his 3.34 SIERA and .277 xwOBA are almost identical to his 3.29 ERA and .274 wOBA.

Eflin is getting great results from his sinker, which has been his primary pitch since 2020.  However, he is throwing the sinker only 34.7% of time, teaming it in a slightly more even mix with his curve (28.7% usage) and cutter (27.8%).  As such, Eflin’s curveball has now also become a premium offering, and the sinker/curve combo has helped offset the cutter’s much shakier results.  Combined with the occasional usage of a changeup and four-seamer to keep batters guessing, and Eflin is on pace for a career year in his age-29 season.

The biggest difference for Eflin in 2023, however, is just that he has thus far been pretty healthy.  His 90 1/3 innings already marks the fourth-highest innings total of his eight MLB seasons, and he threw only 86 1/3 total frames in the regular season and postseason with the Phillies in 2022.  He missed time last year due to a knee contusion, continuing the theme of knee problems that have plagued Eflin throughout his career — patellar-tendon surgeries on both knees in 2016, and then another patellar tendon procedure on his right knee in 2021.  Philadelphia opted to use Eflin out of the bullpen after he returned from the IL last season, in order to get him on the mound in some capacity rather than spend more time fully building up his arm for a starter’s workload.

There hasn’t been any suggestion of an innings limit for Eflin, and though he has yet to pitch more than seven innings in a game this season, that is probably more due to Tampa Bay’s general approach to starter usage more than any specific intent to keep Eflin fresh.  His career high for innings was 163 1/3 frames for the Phillies in 2019, so assuming good health from here on out, there is still quite a ways to go before Eflin or the Rays might have any concerns about his workload.  With the Rays on pace for another postseason appearance, they certainly hope Eflin can pitch throughout October, and the potential returns of Rasmussen and Fleming will continue to impact the team’s pitching plans.

Rays Activate Zach Eflin, DFA Hector Perez

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According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays have activated right-hander Zach Eflin from the 15-day IL to start this afternoon’s game against the White Sox. In a corresponding move, the club has designated right-hander Hector Perez for assignment.

Eflin’s return will help fortify a Rays rotation currently wracked with injuries. In addition to Tyler Glasnow having yet to make his debut this season thanks to an oblique strain, breakout left-hander Jeffrey Springs saw his season end last week when it was announced he is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Eflin, who signed a three-year, $40MM deal to join the Rays over the offseason, had a 3.27 ERA and 2.63 FIP in two starts before being placed on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness. The ailment clearly proved to be minor, as Eflin is returning after a backdated minimum stay on the IL.

That’s good news for the Rays, who now have another reliable arm in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and prospect Taj Bradley. With Bradley and Rasmussen set to pitch the next two days, the Rays will need another starter on Wednesday, though it’s possible they could turn to a bullpen game led by lefty Josh Fleming, who opened the season in the rotation but has since been bumped to the bullpen after struggling in his first start of the season.

As for Perez, the 26-year-old right-hander was selected just yesterday and did not end up making an appearance during his stint on the roster. Perez has made just one appearance in his big league career, a 1 2/3 inning outing with the Blue Jays in 2020 during which he surrendered two runs on three hits and three walks. Perez has long struggled with his control, as evidenced by his career 14.4% walk rate. Those control problems have likely contributed to his struggles to return to a major league mound over the past three seasons. The Rays will now have seven days to trade, waive, or release Perez.

Rays Notes: Ballpark, Eflin, Siri, Thompson, Glasnow

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The Rays “seem to be making progress” on a new ballpark, principal owner Stuart Sternberg told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  While the organization has still been talking with Tampa officials about the possibility of building a long-awaited new stadium in that city, Sternberg said “we’ve been focused on” remaining in St. Petersburg, and a proposed plan that would see the Rays’ new home built near the current site of Tropicana Field.

The stadium would be the centerpiece of a major redevelopment project similar to other recent “ballpark villages” in Atlanta and St. Louis, as the Rays’ new yard would be surrounded by new housing, shopping centers, restaurants, and entertainment venues.  Nothing has been finalized about either the ballpark project or the larger revitalization project, as Sternberg said “We’re working at both and neither one is easy….The county and the city are really working beautifully together, so that’s part of the reason why we’re all optimistic.”

While the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season, there has long been a push from ownership to figure out a new ballpark situation sooner rather than later, with the Rays at one point even exploring an idea to split their home schedule between Tampa and Montreal (in new ballparks in both cities).  However, it does now appear that at least some momentum seems to be building towards the Rays staying in St. Pete, which must count as some relief to fans after years of speculation about a possible move.

With the Athletics now on the verge of officially moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, Sternberg commented on the situation, saying that “It’s in all of baseball’s interests to have the A’s and any baseball team on the firmest footing possible.”  By this same logic, Sternberg supported commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision to waive a relocation fee, noting that to help a team regain stability, it doesn’t fit for the league “to say ‘Look, we’re going to let you move and your revenues are going to go up but we’re going to take them all from you.’ ”

In some Rays news on the field, the team will get some reinforcements back from the injured list starting tomorrow, when Zach Eflin will activated to start Sunday’s game against the White Sox.  Eflin’s placement on the 15-day IL was retroactive to April 8, but since his bout of back tightness proved to be minor, he’ll be able to return on the first day of eligibility.  After signing a three-year, $40MM free agent deal with Tampa Bay during the offseason, Eflin looked sharp in his first two starts with his new club, posting a 3.27 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk over 11 innings.

Jose Siri was also off to an impressive start before beginning an IL stint on April 8, as a hamstring strain put the center fielder on the sidelines.  Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that Siri will be re-evaluated following a two-game minor league rehab assignment.  Siri played the first of those two games yesterday as a DH with Triple-A Durham, and he’ll take today off before playing center field for Durham in Sunday’s contest.

If all goes well, Siri might be activated as early as Monday, when the Rays begin a series against Houston.  By coincidence, the Astros were also the team who dealt Siri to Tampa last year at the trade deadline, and after showing his mettle as a defender, Siri has now started to break out at the plate.  He hit .318/.333/.682 with two home runs in his first 24 plate appearances before suffering his hamstring strain.

Ryan Thompson also looks to be facing a “very minimal” IL stint, Cash said, which could mean the reliever might return from the 15-day injured list on April 28, when first eligible.  Thompson suffered a right lat strain after posting a 3.18 ERA over his first 5 2/3 innings of work out of Tampa’s bullpen.

The timeline isn’t as clear for Tyler Glasnow, who was given an initial window of 6-to-8 weeks when he first suffered his Grade 2 oblique strain at the end of February.  Cash said Glasnow was slated for two innings of live batting practice in extended Spring Training work on Monday, which comes on the heels of a pair of bullpen sessions earlier this month.  The Rays are aiming for Glasnow to be ready by around the middle of May, once he is fully ramped up after missing such a big chunk of Spring Training work.

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