Padres, Cubs Nearing Yu Darvish Trade
8:32pm: Padres outfielder Ismael Mena and shortstop Yeison Santana are other names in discussion, Mayo reports.
8:20pm: Davies and “several prospects,” including 2020 second-round outfielder Owen Caissie, will be going to the Cubs, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. Shortstop Reginald Preciado will also head to Chicago, per Acee, who adds that the trade features “two other prospects.” The Cubs won’t get any of the Padres’ top five prospects, according to Nightengale.
7:10pm: Caratini will be part of the trade once it occurs, but Campusano won’t, Nightengale tweets.
6:58pm: The clubs are close to a deal and appear as if they’ll finalize it tonight, per Nightengale.
4:32pm: The trade looks to be close, Heyman tweets. Caratini would “likely” join Darvish in San Diego, though the Cubs want “some MLB experience” as part of their return.
3:04pm: The two teams are nearing agreement “on the multiple pieces” of a Darvish trade, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Pads “have accepted the haul they will have to send to the Cubs,” Acee writes.
2:50pm: Top catching prospect Luis Campusano is among the names that has been discussed, Nightengale reports. His inclusion in the deal would give the Cubs a replacement should they send a catcher to the Padres. Campusano would join Miguel Amaya as a potential long-term option at the position with Contreras up for free agency in two years (if he’s not traded in this or another deal first).
2:03pm: There’s “growing optimism” that the two sides will complete a deal, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, adding that an agreement could come together as soon as today.
12:28pm: The Padres are focused on more than Darvish alone, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link). Both suggest that the talks between the Cubs and Padres could be expanded to include one of Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini.
The Padres’ catching corps has turned over considerably over the past year, with Francisco Mejia now with in Tampa Bay, Austin Hedges in Cleveland and Luis Torrens in Seattle. The Friars have Austin Nola atop their catching depth chart, with touted prospect Luis Campusano behind him, but the latter is still lacking in MLB experience. Either Chicago catcher would bolster the group, and Contreras would likely push Nola into a super-utility role similar to the one in which he thrived with the Mariners.
11:56am: Despite last night’s agreement to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, the Cubs are also “deep” in talks on a trade that would send Yu Darvish from Chicago to San Diego, according to Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports first indicated that the Padres were still in the mix for Darvish even after landing Snell. Importantly, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that San Diego is not on Darvish’s 12-team no-trade list, so the deal can be made without requiring Darvish’s approval.
If completed, the Darvish trade could be the next step in another dizzying flurry of headline-grabbing transactions from general manager A.J. Preller. In addition to Snell and the potential Darvish deal, the Padres are also reported to be the favorites to sign KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim. If all three moves come to fruition, this sequence would hearken back to Preller’s inaugural offseason, wherein Matt Kemp dubbed him the “Rock Star” GM — and back to this summer’s frenzied series of trade deadline acquisitions. Few front offices around the game act as boldly and decisively as the Padres when a course is set, and the Snell acquisition clearly looks to have set some dominos in motion.
It’s at least possible there’s a connection between today’s pair of Friars rumors; the Cubs surely want controllable young talent, and a player like Jake Cronenworth would certainly be of interest to them in a Darvish deal. That’s speculative on my part, to be clear, but it’s not hard to see how those pieces could fit into place. Alternatively, if the Padres were to send an outfielder with a notable salary back to Chicago to help offset Darvish’s contract (e.g. Tommy Pham, Wil Myers), Cronenworth could move into the outfield if needed.
Darvish, 34, is still owed $62MM over the next three seasons as part of the six-year, $126MM he initially signed with the Cubs prior to the 2018 season. The first year of that massive contract could scarcely have gone worse, as Darvish was limited to just 40 innings due to a series of injuries that culminated in arthroscopic elbow surgery.
At that point, few would’ve imagined Darvish resurfacing as both a front-line starter and a highly sought-after trade commodity, but that’s exactly what’s happened. Darvish finished second in National League Cy Young voting in 2020, thanks to a brilliant 2.01 ERA and 93-to-13 K/BB ratio through 76 innings. However, his renaissance extends further back than that.
Dating back to Memorial Day 2019, Darvish has made 32 starts and totaled 199 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball with averages of 11.5 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine frames. At less than $21MM a year, this version of Darvish looks like a relative bargain, though buying his age-34, age-35 and age-36 seasons obviously still carries risk. Darvish is also a favorite of Preller — a former Rangers assistant GM who played an integral part in scouting and signing Darvish during his time with Texas.
The very notion of a rotation featuring some combination of Snell, Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Zach Davies and MacKenzie Gore is a dream scenario for Padres fans — the type of starting staff that would give the Friars a group to go toe-to-toe with the perennial division winners up in Los Angeles. Few teams in the game could boast such a deep and talented group of starting pitchers, and while Davies is a free agent next winter, the Padres will get Mike Clevinger back from Tommy John surgery for the 2022 season. A 2022 group of Snell, Darvish, Lamet, Clevinger, Paddack and Gore has the potential to be utterly overwhelming.
For the Cubs, trading away some combination of Darvish, Contreras and Caratini would be a painful first step in at least some degree of a rebuilding effort. While the Cubs probably won’t tear the roster down to the studs, there’s also some inevitable change on the horizon. Cornerstone pieces like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez are all free agents next winter. Kyle Schwarber would’ve joined that group but has already been non-tendered. Contreras is only controlled through 2022.
Improbable as it would have seemed a few years back, Darvish now stands out as one of president Jed Hoyer’s most desirable trade targets to dangle for other teams, joining Contreras and Kyle Hendricks in that regard. Trading Darvish (and Contreras or Caratini) would give the Cubs an avenue to clear salary and acquire controllable talent for the team’s next core.
However this plays out, it seems likely that more moves will be on the horizon for the Padres and Cubs alike. The Cubs could either jump into free agency to add a Darvish replacement at a lower cost, or they could continue to shop veteran stars like Bryant and Hendricks. And for the Padres, Preller’s history suggests that more moves are likely to follow even if Darvish, Kim and one of Contreras/Caratini all land in San Diego. The Padres could still use some help in the bullpen, for instance, and they’ll likely send some MLB talent to Chicago in order to push the Darvish deal across the line. It’s going to be a busy week in San Diego.
Quick Hits: Cronenworth, Realmuto, Kiermaier, G. Sanchez
Even after agreeing to sign standout Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, the Padres aren’t planning to move 2020 NL Rookie of the Year contender Jake Cronenworth away from second base, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears. It’s unclear how the Padres will fit Kim in on a regular basis, then, as they have Cronenworth at second, shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado on the left side of their infield, and Eric Hosmer holding down first. But the Padres – like the division-rival Dodgers – are simply looking to stockpile as much talent as possible, per Acee, and will worry about who plays where when the time comes. That strategy has worked for the stacked Dodgers, who have owned the National League West since 2013 and just took home a World Series title during the fall.
- Almost two months into free agency, catcher J.T. Realmuto still hasn’t signed anywhere. However, he remains a priority for the Phillies and their new front office consisting of president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The Phillies’ goal of re-signing Realmuto is no surprise, as he continued his run as the majors’ premier catcher in their uniform over the previous two seasons, though it remains unclear how much the team is willing to spend this offseason. Arguably the top position player in free agency, MLBTR projects Realmuto will haul in a five-year, $125MM contract before the 2021 campaign. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ran down potential fits for Realmuto this past weekend.
- Blake Snell may not be the last high-profile veteran the Rays move in a trade this winter. Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier is now on the block, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests. It’s unknown if teams are interested in the soon-to-be 31-year-old Kiermaier, but even if they are, the three-time Gold Glove winner is not going to bring back a big-time return after a third straight below-average offensive season. With a guaranteed $26MM left on his contract (including a $2.5MM buyout for 2023), Kiermaier doesn’t possess a team-friendly deal.
- The Yankees benched catcher Gary Sanchez in five of their seven playoff games during the fall, and he’s not sure of the reason. Sanchez told Marly Rivera of ESPN.com that “they never told me why I was benched. I didn’t know why I wasn’t playing.” Sanchez noted that he continued to support the team despite losing playing time to backup Kyle Higashioka – ace Gerrit Cole‘s personal catcher – and he “had a respectful and very positive conversation with [manager Aaron] Boone” after the season. Sanchez was a trade/non-tender candidate earlier in the offseason, though the Yankees and GM Brian Cashman have stuck by him since then and may give the 28-year-old another shot as their starting catcher in 2021. While Sanchez batted a miserable .147/.253/.365 in 178 plate appearances last year, he was among the majors’ most productive offensive backstops as recently as 2019.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Blake Snell Trade
Not far removed from their first playoff season since 2006, the Padres have dominated headlines in Major League Baseball over the past couple days. They agreed to sign highly touted Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim on Monday, and it’s possible they’ll follow it up by acquiring 2020 NL Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish from the Cubs before the day is out. And prior to reeling in Kim (and potentially Darvish), the Padres made a major addition to their rotation when they agreed to land left-hander Blake Snell from the Rays late Sunday night.
In Snell, the Padres are getting a 28-year-old former AL Cy Young winner (2018) who’s due a more-than-reasonable $39MM through 2023. Snell wasn’t able to replicate the numbers from his career season over the past two years, but he was hardly a slouch during that span. In his last season in Tampa Bay, which won the AL pennant, Snell threw 50 innings and put up a 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP with 11.34 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a personal-best 49.2 percent groundball rate, all while continuing to average upward of 95 mph on his fastball. The Padres’ hope is that Snell (and perhaps Darvish, if they’re able to complete that trade) will help replace righty Mike Clevinger – a blockbuster 2020 pickup who will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November.
Meanwhile, although some may roll their eyes at the small-budget Rays for trading a reasonably priced, high-end starter in the wake of a World Series-bound year, it does appear they’ll receive a significant haul in this swap. The club’s slated to get two promising righties – Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox – as well as a pair of young catchers in Francisco Mejia and Blake Hunt.
The 21-year-old Patino, who made a brief major league debut last season, was Baseball America’s 18th-best prospect entering the campaign; Wilcox was a third-round pick in last summer’s draft, but he was seen as a first-round talent – which led the Padres to give him a record bonus worth $3.3MM; Mejia was a star prospect in his own right in earlier years, though the 25-year-old hasn’t established himself as a quality major leaguer since he debuted in 2017; and Hunt, 22, looks like a top 100-caliber prospect now, per Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs.
All said, this looks like another win-now move for San Diego, which could emerge as a serious championship contender in 2021. On the other hand, in light of this deal, it’s easy to say the Rays will take a step back next year. However, it appears they got an impressive return, and considering the work the Rays’ front office has done with few financial resources, it may be wise to give them the benefit of the doubt.
How would you grade the trade? (Poll links for app users: Padres, Rays)
Grade the Snell trade for the Padres
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A 56% (9,773)
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B 34% (6,057)
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C 8% (1,329)
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D 1% (204)
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F 1% (196)
Total votes: 17,559
Grade the Snell trade for the Rays
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B 39% (6,531)
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A 28% (4,619)
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C 23% (3,775)
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D 6% (1,075)
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F 4% (713)
Total votes: 16,713
Padres Seen As Front-Runners For Ha-Seong Kim
9:41am: Sherman now tweets that the Padres are viewed as the favorites for Kim. A deal has not yet been completed, but the two sides have discussed a $7-8MM annual value over a term fewer than six years. If a deal is completed, Kim would step in at second base, with Cronenworth likely moving into the outfield.
9:18am: Kim is on a flight to the United States this morning, per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. While Daniel Kim of DKTV and ESPN tweets that Kim is headed to the U.S. to take a physical, that doesn’t mean he’s selected a team just yet. Kim needs to be present to complete a physical prior to his posting window closing, so it makes sense that he’s headed to North America at this time.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Blue Jays and Padres are considered to be front-runners for Kim, with the Red Sox still looming as a possible but less-likely destination. The Mets and Reds have been “intrigued” by Kim, Sherman adds, but aren’t viewed as favorites to sign him.
8:55am: It’s been less than 12 hours since the Padres agreed to their blockbuster acquisition of Blake Snell in a trade with the Rays, but it seems that’s not the only major roster move general manager A.J. Preller hopes to complete before the New Year. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that San Diego is “taking a serious run” at free-agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who was posted for Major League clubs by the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes.
Unlike most stars who are posted for MLB teams to bid on, Kim is squarely in the midst of his prime years. The 25-year-old has been a steady contributor for the Heroes throughout his career but has seen his offensive output explode over the past two seasons, even as the KBO has altered the composition of its ball in an effort to cut back on the league’s extremely hitter-friendly tendencies. Since 2019, Kim has batted .307/.393/.500 with 49 home runs, 62 doubles, three triples and a 56-for-62 showing in stolen base attempts.
The Padres, of course, don’t have a pressing need for an infielder thanks to the presence of Manny Machado at third base, Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop and emergent Jake Cronenworth at second base. Kim, however, has experience at both shortstop and third base, and he’s viewed as a perfectly viable option at second base as well. He could give the Padres — or another club — a versatile super-utility piece who allows them rest their regular infielders a day per week or step into a larger role in the case of an injury. It’s also worth noting that Cronenworth, excellent 2020 debut notwithstanding, still has just 194 Major League plate appearances under his belt.
There’s no clear front-runner for Kim at this point, although his market is nearing its conclusion. His 30-day posting period began on Dec. 2 and must be concluded by Jan. 1 at 5pm ET. The Blue Jays have made an offer of at least five years, and reports out of South Korea have indicated that he has multiple five-year offers in hand. It’s not clear whether the Padres have made a five-year proposal, but chatter surrounding Kim figures to pick up steam over the next few days as bidding for his services draws to a close.
Padres, Cubs Have Discussed Yu Darvish Trade
The Padres and Cubs have had discussions about a trade involving right-hander Yu Darvish, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Whether these negotiations are serious or perhaps simple due diligence on the Padres’ part is unclear, as Acee writes that “signals from team sources have been mixed on how far along those talks are.”
San Diego is the first team linked to Darvish on the rumor mill, though it was known that the righty was drawing trade interest following a season that saw him finish second in NL Cy Young Award voting. Darvish posted a 2.01 ERA, 6.64 K/BB rate, and 11.01 K/9 over 76 innings for Chicago, with a lot of strong advanced metric data backing up those excellent on-field results.
Adding Darvish would be a major way for the Padres to reinforce a rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery. Dinelson Lamet is also something of a question mark, as he has been undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy in response to issues with biceps tightness that cut short his season and kept him out of San Diego’s playoff run. While there is a lot of promise within the Padres’ crop of young arms, Darvish would bring both talent and a big infusion of veteran experience to the mix. Padres GM A.J. Preller is very familiar with Darvish, as Preller was working in the Rangers’ front office when Texas first brought the right-hander over to North American baseball prior to the 2012 season.
As much as the Cubs are seemingly looking to cut payroll, however, they will still command a big return in any trade for Darvish. The Padres have the minor league depth to swing such a deal, but Preller and company might also balk at the three years and $62MM remaining on Darvish’s contract since the club reportedly isn’t planning to spend beyond last year’s $150MM payroll, and might even look to get under that figure. The Padres have been linked to such names as Lance Lynn (before Lynn was dealt to the White Sox), Tomoyuki Sugano, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray in free agent and trade buzz this winter, all of whom come with much lower price tags than Darvish’s $62MM.
Preller might figure that if the Padres are going to trade prospects for a front-of-the-rotation arm, they might as well do so for a younger and less-expensive hurler than Darvish, who turns 35 in August. It is also possible that San Diego could try to move a big contract of their own to the Cubs to help offset salary. Hypothetically, Wil Myers (owed $41MM through the 2022 season) could fill the left field vacancy left open when Chicago non-tendered Kyle Schwarber.
The other x-factor in negotiations is Darvish’s partial no-trade protection, which allows him to block a deal to 12 teams. It isn’t known which dozen clubs are on his current no-trade list, but if San Diego is included, Darvish could ask for some type of financial bonus as compensation for waiving his trade veto.
Rangers To Sign Kohei Arihara
TODAY: MLB Insider Jon Heyman provided some clarification as to the financial specifics today (via Twitter). As presumed yesterday, the posting fee will amount to $1.24MM, while the Rangers will pay out $6.2MM over the course of the two-year contract. Arihara will make $2.6MM in 2021 and $3.6MM in 2022, adds MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).
Dec. 25: The Rangers are in agreement with right-hander Kohei Arihara, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a two-year contract in the $6-7MM range, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).
Arihara, 28, has spent the past six seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball. In 836 career innings at Japan’s highest level, Arihara compiled a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He has been especially productive over the past two years. Arihara posted a minuscule 2.46 ERA with a career-best 8.8 K/9 in 2019. This past season, he managed a 3.46 mark with 7.2 K/9 across 132.2 innings.
Writing for Baseball America on the heels of Arihara’s peak season in 2019, Jason Coskrey noted that the right-hander works in the low-90’s and primarily leans upon his fastball, changeup and slider. Arihara has up to seven distinct pitches in his arsenal, though, and Coskrey notes he’s adept at using his secondaries to keep opposing hitters off balance. He also has a long history of throwing strikes, not having issued more than 2.2 walks per nine innings pitched in any of his last five NPB seasons.
Arihara’s not known for especially overpowering raw stuff, and that’s been borne out in his relatively low strikeout rates. Shun Yamaguchi, who signed a similar contract with the Blue Jays last offseason, consistently posted heftier strikeout totals over his time in Japan than did Arihara. So too has Tomoyuki Sugano, the higher-profile NPB starter available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter. That could suggest Arihara’s more suited for the back of the rotation, although he figures to have a decent opportunity for innings in Texas.
Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles will presumably try to bounce back from dismal 2020 seasons. Dane Dunning will certainly get a rotation job after coming over from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. There’s a lot of uncertainty beyond (and even among) that trio, though. Kolby Allard was knocked around last season and hasn’t yet established himself as a big league caliber starter. Kyle Cody, who never worked more than five innings, was the only other player still on the roster to start multiple games for Texas last season.
In addition to Arihara’s salary, the Rangers will owe the Fighters a release fee under the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system. The Fighters will receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract value. Depending upon the contract’s specific terms, that would put the posting fee in the $1.2MM – 1.4MM range. Texas’ total outlay is around $7.5MM, hears Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
The Red Sox and Padres were reportedly the other finalists in the bidding for Arihara, whose posting window was set to expire tomorrow. San Diego and Boston will now have to turn elsewhere in their hunt for additional rotation depth.
Report: Padres, Rangers, Red Sox Are Finalists For Kohei Arihara
The 30-day posting window for right-hander Kohei Arihara is set to close on December 26, and Arihara is apparently set to choose between three MLB teams. According to reports out of Japan, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox are the finalists for Arihara’s services.
San Diego was the only team known to have interest in Arihara, though it isn’t any surprise that pitching-needy teams like Texas and Boston are also looking into the 28-year-old. Interestingly, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox have also been linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, another high-profile NPB name on the market. Sugano’s posting window doesn’t close until January 7, so it’s possible that whichever team lands Arihara could drop out of the race for Sugano.
Comparisons between the two pitchers are inevitable, and Sugano certainly has the more successful track record in Nippon Professional Baseball, as a two-time Sawamura Award winner and one of the better pitchers in the entire league over the last decade. Sugano is also 31, however, while Arihara doesn’t turn 29 until August. Arihara would also presumably be available at a lower price tag, which is certainly a factor for any team in this offseason.
Arihara has a 3.74 ERA, 3.23 K/BB rate, and 6.7 K/9 over 836 innings for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. After winning Pacific League Rookie Of The Year honors in 2015, Arihara had a strong sophomore campaign in 2016 before his production took a dip in 2017-18. He righted the ship with his finest season, as Arihara has a 2.46 ERA and 8.8 K/9 (both career bests) over 164 1/3 frames for the Fighters in 2019.
As per a scouting report from Will Hoefer of the Sports Info Solutions blog after that big 2019 season, Arihara has a plus changeup, and a fastball that can touch 95mph (though Arihara prefers to mix speeds to keep batters guessing). Arihara has good command over these two pitches “and a slider that flashes plus,” and Hoefer projects the righty as “a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team.”
Such an arm would surely be attractive to the three reported finalists. The Padres are looking for rotation help in the wake of Mike Clevinger‘s Tommy John surgery, and the Rangers and Red Sox are both looking for live arms just to fill out a rotation after their pitchers largely struggled in 2020. In Texas, Arihara would slot in alongside veterans Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, with newly-acquired Dane Dunning also tabbed for a rotation spot after being acquired in the Lance Lynn trade. Boston’s pitching staff is even more open, given the uncertainty over how Eduardo Rodriguez will bounce back from the health problems that kept him off the mound in 2020, the ever-present injury concerns for Nathan Eovaldi, and an overall lack of experience among other starting options.
According to the MLB/NPB posting system, Arihara has been free to negotiate with any Major League club over his 30-day period, and once he signs with a team, that team will owe the Fighters a release fee that will vary based on the size of Arihara’s contract. The Fighters will receive a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, and then 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, and 15 percent of any dollars spent beyond the $50MM threshold.
Padres Sign Nick Burdi, Nick Ramirez To Minor League Deals
The Padres have signed right-hander Nick Burdi and lefty Nick Ramirez to minor league contracts, according to Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
The hard-throwing Burdi underwent his second Tommy John surgery in October, so the 27-year-old probably won’t be available to the Padres at all in 2021. A second-round pick of the Twins in 2014, Burdi appeared in the majors with the Pirates in each of the previous three seasons, though he only combined for 12 1/3 innings. He also has just five Triple-A innings under his belt, but Burdi has pitched to a 3.44 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 115 minor league frames.
Ramirez, 31, debuted in 2019 and led the Tigers’ bullpen in innings (79 2/3) that year. He threw another 10 2/3 last season. Overall, Ramirez pitched to a 4.28 ERA/4.71 FIP with 8.47 K/9, 3.89 BB/9 and a 46.2 percent groundball rate in a Tigers uniform. Detroit outrighted him in October.
Padres, Royals Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar
The Padres and Royals are among the teams showing interest in free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the same, adding that the Padres “are trying” to bring Profar back to the organization. It’s sensible that the Padres want him back; he was solid there in 2020 and GM A.J. Preller was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Profar’s developmental years. Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in a left-handed bat who can handle third base or the outfield, and the switch-hitting Profar fits that mold.
Profar’s end-of-season numbers certainly look appealing. The 27-year-old (28 in February) slashed .278/.343/.428 with seven homers, six doubles and seven steals through 202 plate appearances, adding in a career-low 13.9 percent strikeout rate. It’s the second time in three seasons that Profar rated as an above-average hitter per both OPS+ and wRC+.
That said, there’s also reason for some caution with regard to Profar’s production. Things can change quickly in a 60-game, 200-plate appearance sample, and that was certainly the case in this instance. Through the first 30 games and 111 plate appearances of the 2020 season, Profar posted a .181/.291/.319 slash with four home runs and one double. He had some miserable batted-ball luck in that time (.171 BABIP), but Profar’s season exemplifies the difficulty of how to evaluate players coming off this year’s 60-game slate; for half the year he was among the worst hitters in MLB, and for his final 91 plate appearances he was among the game’s best (albeit with a whopping .423 BABIP in that time as the pendulum swung the other direction).
Profar is lacking in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but his low strikeout rate and a passable walk rate still lead metrics like Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) to peg him as a slightly above-average hitter based on the quality and regularity of contact made.
Defensively, Profar has been moved off second base twice in the past two seasons — first in Oakland and then in San Diego (although the move in San Diego was perhaps more about Jake Cronenworth‘s emergence as it was Profar’s struggles). Profar developed a case of the yips while serving as Oakland’s regular second baseman early in 2019, at one point making eight errors in a span of 25 games. He righted the ship but was still dinged hard by defensive metrics: -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average. His marks in 2020 were better, and it’s only fair to point out that those same metrics suggest Profar was anywhere from a passable to very good left fielder for the Padres in 2020.
Taken in totality, Profar’s last three seasons have produced a league-average hitter who is capable of playing three infield positions, but perhaps none of them especially well, with an encouraging but small sample of work in left field. He’s an efficient base stealer (26-for-28) but by no means a burner, as Statcast puts his average sprint speed right around the 50th percentile throughout the league. He’s toward the bottom of the league in hard contact but toward the top of the league in terms of putting the ball in play.
Profar is a useful player as is, but the allure of his former prospect status and his youth surely hold appeal to other clubs. He’ll play all of next season at 28, and while it was close to a decade ago, Profar was the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, topping the lists from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus alike. He’s had two shoulder surgeries since that time, however, which effectively cost him two full years of development. He was also quite arguably rushed to the Majors in the first place, debuting as a 19-year-old for a win-now Rangers club back in 2012.
There’s still an air of upside surrounding Profar because of that status and his age, even if his batted-ball profile isn’t a particularly encouraging one. The question for Profar may be one of whether to take a one-year deal in hopes of a cashing in on a strong 2021 season or taking a multi-year pact at an annual value that would look like a bargain if he does indeed elevate his game in 2021. Those decisions will be weighed by his camp as he continues to field offers, although the Royals have been surprisingly aggressive with players they identify as targets, which would seemingly bode well for Profar’s market.
Padres Sign Nabil Crismatt
The Padres have signed Nabil Crismatt, as announced by the right-hander himself on his Instagram page. Crismatt elected to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Cardinals’ 40-man roster following the season.
2020 saw the 25-year-old Crismatt made his MLB debut, as he tossed 8 1/3 innings over six relief appearances for St. Louis and posted a 3.24 ERA and eight strikeouts against just one walk. He has also impressed in recent Dominican Winter League outings, with a 2.00 ERA, 8.50 K/BB rate, and 8.5 K/9 over 18 innings.
Crismatt began his pro career as a Mets international signing out of Colombia back in 2011, and he has a career 3.82 ERA, 3.90 K/BB rate, and 9.5 K/9 over 641 2/3 innings in the minors with the Mets (from 2012-18) and Mariners (in 2019). Crismatt has started 88 of his 167 appearances at the minor league level, with the majority of those starts coming since the start of the 2017 campaign.
While Crismatt’s overall numbers on the farm are pretty solid, he has struggled mightily at Triple-A, with an 8.96 ERA over 85 1/3 innings that seems largely due to an ungainly 2.4 HR/9. Home runs have (to a much lesser extent) been something of an issue throughout his career, and all three of the runs Crismatt surrendered in the majors last season were via the long ball. If the Padres can correct or even lessen Crismatt’s problems at keeping the ball in the park, he could be an interesting depth piece for the bullpen, rotation, or perhaps even both in a swingman capacity.