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Extension Candidate: Cameron Maybin

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Arbitration rewards sluggers, closers and above-average starters. Fleet-footed center fielders with modest power? Not so much. That’s why Cameron Maybin is a candidate for a modest extension with the Padres, even after a breakout season. The Padres will likely resume extension talks with the 24-year-old before long, so it’s a good time to look ahead to a possible long-term deal.

Cameron Maybin - Padres

After the 2011 season, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz empirically showed what teams and agents have known for some time: the one skill that really gets position players paid is power. Batting average and stolen bases “pale in importance to almighty home runs and RBI,” Swartz wrote. What’s more, position does not seem to matter much either. 

This is bad news for Maybin, a strong defensive center fielder who doesn’t hit for much power and calls Petco Park home. The 2005 first rounder will be undervalued through the arbitration process despite his contributions on offense and defense. 

Maybin posted a .264/.323./393 line in 2011 for a respectable 103 OPS+ and he plays better-than-average defense in center field, according to UZR/150 (+11.6 in ’11, +8.0 career). Though Maybin is an above-average player according to wins above replacement, the arbitration process won't recognize his defense, which will limit his leverage in extension talks.

Powerful outfielders such as Jay Bruce, Justin Upton and Carlos Gonzalez all signed extensions worth at least $50MM at similar stages in their careers, but Maybin’s not in line for that kind of deal, since he hasn't showed similar power in parts of five MLB seasons. His representatives may instead be looking to recent contracts for Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Tabata and Denard Span as points of reference.

Gutierrez, Tabata and Span, comparable offensive players to Maybin who also have experience in center field, all signed deals that bought out their three arbitration years and include options for free agent seasons. Maybin currently has more service time than Span and Tabata had when they signed and less service time than Gutierrez had when he signed, but their deals provide a possible framework for the Padres and Baratta Partners.

Span, Tabata and Gutierrez all signed deals that include club options and the Padres would presumably push for at least one option year if they extend their center fielder. A five-year deal along the lines of Gutierrez’s contract would guarantee Maybin more than $20MM. One possible scenario: $500K for 2012, his final pre-arbitration season, $2.5MM, $4MM and $6MM for his three arbitration seasons, $8MM for his first free agent year and an $8MM club option with a $500K buyout for a second free agent season. 

If the sides discuss an extension, as expected, they could explore any number of scenarios, but a five-year deal in the $21-22MM could work for both sides in my opinion. Maybin would get the security of a long-term deal and the Padres would extend their control over a player who’s more valuable than the arbitration process would indicate.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Harden, Wheeler, Padres, Votto, Mets

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Links for Tuesday as news and rumors pick up after a holiday lull… 

  • Free agent right-hander Rich Harden is drawing interest from teams that would use him either as a starter or a reliever, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Harden posted 9.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings as a starter for the Athletics in 2011.
  • The Twins continue eyeing affordable right-handed relievers and have been in touch with the agent for Dan Wheeler, according to Phil Mackey of 1500ESPN.com. Wheeler, who has also drawn some interest from the Pirates, sits below a couple of pitchers on the Twins’ list.
  • The Pirates have had discussions with free agent left-hander Paul Maholm, but it remains highly unlikely that he'll return to Pittsburgh, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
  • The Mat Latos trade improved a Padres farm system that already ranked among the game’s best, Jim Callis of Baseball America wrote in this week’s edition of Ask BA.
  • One MLB executive suggested to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the Cubs and Blue Jays may prefer to pass on Prince Fielder, since Joey Votto projects to hit free agency two years from now when both Chicago and Toronto could have stronger teams (Twitter link).
  • Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com provides contract details for Mets relievers Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco, who both agreed to terms during the Winter Meetings.

Minor Moves: Davis, Quintanilla, Nelson

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Here's where we'll keep track of today's minor moves…

  • The Padres signed catcher Brad Davis to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to Spring Training, tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock. Davis, a San Diego native, appeared in 33 games with the Marlins in 2011.
  • The Mets signed Omar Quintanilla to a minor league contract, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Quintanilla, 30, appeared in 11 games for the Rangers this past season and spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he posted a .298/.369/.452 line in 234 plate appearances. He'll provide the Mets with depth at shortstop.
  • The Rangers re-signed first baseman Brad Nelson to a minor league deal, tweets Anthony Andro of FOXSportsSouthwest.com. Nelson, a former top prospect, posted a .281/.360/.501 line with 24 homers at Triple-A last year. The 29-year-old made it to the Major Leagues as a member of the Brewers in 2008-09.

Quick Hits: Blue Jays, Pena, Padres, White Sox, Braun

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Presenting the first edition of Quick Hits for 2012..

  • An interesting fact courtesy of Yahoo's Jeff Passan (via Twitter): Of the 23 teams to have spent money on free agents this offseason, the Red Sox rank 18th and the Yankees are tied for 19th.  Each team has spent $4.35MM and $4MM, respectively.
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Jason Frasor shortly after the trade that he's now satisfied with the look of his bullpen, writes Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com.  Frasor will join the recently-signed Darren Oliver and Sergio Santos, who Anthopoulos traded for in December.
  • The Blue Jays now have 40 men on the 40-man roster after acquiring Frasor, which means that the club will need to make another move in the coming days to create space for Oliver, Chisholm tweets.  The veteran agreed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2013 on Friday.
  • It's possible that Carlos Pena could be an option for the Indians, but the market for first baseman won't truly shake loose until Prince Fielder finds his new home, writes Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.  Yesterday, just over 7% of MLBTR readers polled picked the Tribe as Pena's most likely destination while the Brewers won out with almost 20% of the vote.
  • The Padres shook things up yesterday when they traded for Carlos Quentin, but you can expect them to open the season with Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett in the middle infield, tweets Corey Brock of MLB.com.
  • Speaking of the Quentin deal, Dayan Viciedo is now expected to take over in right field for the White Sox, writes MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  The 22-year-old is entering the final season of the four-year, $10MM deal he signed in December of 2008.
  • An official familiar with the appeals process for banned substances told Tom Haudricourt of the Journal-Sentinel that he doesn't anticipate Ryan Braun winning his case against a 50-game suspension.  The source said that Braun's only options are to prove an error in the testing or say that the Brewers signed off on a treatment.  However, there are provisions in place to ensure accurate testing and the club never gave Braun the go-ahead to use any substance.
  • Fielder liked the idea of playing in Chicago because it's a reasonable distance from his Florida home and he has had success at Wrigley Field, writes Ken Davidoff of Newsday.  However, that no longer appears to be a possibility for the slugger as the Cubs are looking to rebuild.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/insider-albert-pujols-showed-he-s-human-1.3421208

Olney On Rays, Quentin, Polanco, Marlins, Darvish

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After ranking MLB's best rotations, bullpens, infields, outfields, and lineups in December, ESPN.com's Buster Olney opened up 2012 with his overall power rankings.  The Rays are ranked No. 1 thanks in large part to their outstanding rotation.  This year, Matt Moore joins the mix and Olney writes that the left-hander has the numbers and the ability of Stephen Strasburg without the same level of hype behind him.  Of course, the club still has some issues to address, such as the identity of their first baseman and designated hitter.  However, Olney feels that their pitching makes them the top club in baseball at present.  Here are some highlights from today's column..

  • It's possible that the Padres could negotiate a very team-friendly two- or three-year deal with the Carlos Quentin before arbitration.  However, it's hard to imagine the club investing heavily in the outfielder before gauging how much he can stay on the field and how his power translates to pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
  • The Phillies would still like to find an alternative to the oft-injured Placido Polanco.  In October, skipper Charlie Manuel said that he would be in favor of an upgrade at third base if possible.  The club dangled Polanco in early December when it seemed as if they might lose Jimmy Rollins to free agency and look to sign Aramis Ramirez to play third.
  • The Cubs are talking with a number of teams about Matt Garza, including the Marlins.  A lot of baseball scouts are not wild about the quality and depth of the prospects in Miami's farm system.
  • Yu Darvish is not yet signed with the Rangers, but rival executives don't believe he has much leverage and will eventually work out a deal.

Reactions To The Carlos Quentin Trade

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Earlier today, the Padres bolstered their lineup by acquiring Carlos Quentin from the White Sox for pitching prospects Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.  Here's a look at some of the fallout and reactions to the New Year's Eve swap..

  • The early word from scouts is that Castro and Hernandez don't have much upside, which indicates that this was a payroll move, tweets ESPN.com's Buster Olney.  
  • Despite the criticism of the two prospects, White Sox GM Ken Williams insists that the club has identified the keys to getting Castro back to where he was a year ago when he was considered to be a strong prospect, according to the White Sox official Twitter.  The 23-year-old right-hander was ranked as the Padres third best prospect last year by Baseball America.
  • Williams also compared Castro's build and mound mechanics to those of Jose Contreras, according to the ChiSox Twitter.  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (via Twitter) notes compared Castro to Contreras in a piece almost two years ago.
  • Quentin said that the White Sox's sub-.500 finish in 2011 and his value led him to think he might be traded, tweets Dan Hayes of the North County Times (via Twitter).  The outfielder also says that he knew he was on Padres' radar.
  • In a piece for ESPN.com, Keith Law writes that Quentin is a mediocre fit for the Padres.  Quentin, he writes, is a poor defensive outfielder who has great secondary skills, including above-average power and solid plate discipline.  However, his history of injuries indicates that he'll have trouble playing the field 150 games a year.
  • GM Josh Byrnes and Ken Williams have swapped Quentin once before.  As Diamondbacks GM, Byrnes traded Quentin to Chicago for first baseman Chris Carter in 2007.  Byrnes said that trading away Quentin was "pretty high" on his list of regrets as Arizona GM, tweets Tom Krasovic of Inside The Padres.
  • The trade appears to signal that Kyle Blanks isn't in the team's plans going forward, Krasovic tweets.
  • Byrnes says that he and Williams have been discussing the deal for the past ten days and the pace picked up significantly over the past two days, Krasovic tweets.  Byrnes also says that he's looking to put together a team that can compete in 2012 while maintaining a long-term plan (via Twitter).
  • The two sides agreed to the deal in principle Friday morning before announcing the trade today, according to Corey Brock of MLB.com.

Padres Acquire Carlos Quentin

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The Padres have acquired Carlos Quentin from the White Sox for pitching prospects Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez, the teams announced.  It's the second time Padres GM Josh Byrnes and White Sox GM Kenny Williams have gotten together for a trade involving Quentin; Byrnes was the Diamondbacks GM when the outfielder was traded from Arizona to the ChiSox in 2007. 

Quentin, 29, grew up in San Diego and will instantly add some power to the offensively challenged Padres' lineup.  The right-hander hitter produced a .254/.340/.499 batting line with 24 homers in 2011, and he's hit .257/.352/.505 with at least 21 homers per year from '08-'11.

13076543During his time in Chicago, the outfielder has battled shoulder, foot, hamstring, and wrist problems, requiring four separate stints on the disabled list.  We project him to earn $7.5MM his third time through arbitration in 2012 before becoming a free agent after the season.  On the surface, the deal appears to be a cost-cutting measure for the White Sox.

Castro, a 23-year-old right-hander, was ranked as the Padres third best prospect at this time last year by Baseball America but was left off of this year's top ten list.  In 2009, Castro was tabbed as the best pitcher in the Padres system after turning in a 3.33 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 for the club's Single-A affiliate.  The 6-foot-5 hurler started off 2011 with Double-A San Antonio before being promoted to Triple-A Tucson.  Combined, Castro posted a 5.63 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 2011. 

Hernandez, 22, was also left off of Baseball America's top ten list of Padres prospects in 2011.  The left-hander worked his way up from Class-A+ Lake Elsinore to San Antonio and finished the year in Tuscon.  In total, Hernandez turned in 116 innings of work with a 3.49 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.

Neither prospect was ranked among the top 25 in San Diego's system by John Sickels of Minor League Ball while Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had Castro tabbed at No. 20.  Goldstein writes that Castro has "gone backwards from [his] big prospect days" and cites the fastball as his only dependable pitch.

The first time Josh Byrnes and Ken Williams hooked up in a trade involving Quentin, the outfielder was sent to the White Sox for first baseman Chris Carter.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Padres Notes: Rizzo, Maholm, Young, Quentin

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Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune held his weekly chat with fans today and shared some news about some possible moves the Padres could have cooking this offseason…

  • Center thinks Anthony Rizzo will be traded "in the next week or two."  He predicts Rizzo will be sent to the Rays, who will then flip Rizzo to the Cubs, where he is "still coveted" by (former Padres executives) Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod.
  • The Padres will begin negotiations with Cameron Maybin about a multiyear contract once the team has dealt with its arbitration-eligible players.  We heard earlier this week that the two sides would revisit contract talks in January.  Center predicts a Maybin extension would be worth "at least" $15-18MM and be five or six years in length, which would buy out all three of Maybin's arbitration years and at least one of his free agent years.
  • Center believes the Padres will add another pitcher through free agency, and says he's heard the names of Paul Maholm and Jon Garland connected to the club, though Center doesn't think Garland returning to San Diego is likely.  Garland pitched for the Friars in 2010 and then opted out of a mutual option to enter the free agent market.  Garland ended up signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers but made just nine starts for L.A. due to an oblique injury and season-ending shoulder surgery in July.
  • The team "apparently can't put together a deal that would interest Chris Young" since "it would have to be incentive laden and the Padres aren't offering incentive contracts."  Young, who pitched for San Diego from 2006-10, has been plagued by shoulder injuries that have limited him to just 22 starts over the last three seasons.  Young posted a 1.88 ERA in four starts with the Mets last year before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair an anterior capsule tear in his throwing shoulder.
  • "There is nothing close" between the Padres and White Sox about a possible Carlos Quentin trade.  The Friars were known to be targeting Quentin last month.
  • The Padres may choose to take cash from the Pirates to finalize last July's Ryan Ludwick trade, rather than a player to be named later.
  • Center thinks the Padres "desperately" need to acquire a close-to-Major League-ready middle infield prospect.

Checking In On Baseball’s Lowest Scoring Offenses

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The Giants won the 2010 World Series with an unspectacular offense and won 86 games in 2011 with one of the lowest scoring offenses in the game, but they're the exception, not the rule. Each of the five highest scoring MLB teams won at least 90 games in 2011, while the Giants were the only one of the five lowest scoring teams to avoid 90 losses.

Here's a look at what baseball's five lowest scoring teams have done to improve their offenses so far this offseason. Team name links go to a summary of the teams' moves on MLBTR's Transaction Tracker and 2011 run totals are in parentheses (for reference, the average MLB team scored 694 runs this past season):

  • Mariners (556) - GM Jack Zduriencik has added a number of former Major Leaguers on minor league deals and traded for John Jaso. The Mariners can expect more offense from Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Franklin Gutierrez and others in 2012 and they may make an addition or two before Spring Training.
  • Giants (570) - The Giants traded for Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera, who have both been above-average offensive players in the recent past. The Giants could improve considerably with a full season of Buster Posey and possible improvement from Brandon Belt.
  • Padres (593) - The Padres traded for Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal earlier this month. Both could conceivably add to the Padres' offense in 2012, and Alonso could have an impact from day one. GM Josh Byrnes has also added role players John Baker and Jeremy Hermida.
  • Pirates (610) - The Pirates signed shortstop Clint Barmes, catcher Rod Barajas and outfielder Nate McLouth and traded for infielder Casey McGehee. However, none of the four acquisitions posted an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2011, so it would be unreasonable to expect a surge in scoring based on these additions.
  • Astros (615) – Former GM Ed Wade added a handful of players on minor league deals and waiver claims and Jeff Luhnow traded for Jed Lowrie after becoming Houston's new GM.

The Giants are best-positioned to make a significant offensive jump in 2012, in my opinion. Not only do Pagan and Cabrera provide possible upgrades, Posey's return and Belt's upside will likely invigorate the offense that finished last in the National League in scoring in 2011.

Padres To Restart Contract Talks With Maybin

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The Padres will restart contract extension talks with Cameron Maybin in January, two sources told Dan Hayes of the North County Times.  GM Josh Byrnes and representatives for the 24-year-old recently had a "broad" discussion about a deal for Maybin, but no offer was made according to a source.

Back in September, the Padres and the center fielder seemed to have mutual interest in working out an extension.  Maybin enjoyed a breakout year in 2011, hitting .264/.323/.393 with nine homers in 568 plate appearances.  In the youngster's first 100+ game season, he posted a UZR/150 of 11.6 in center field.

Maybin is on track for arbitration eligibility after the 2012 season and free agency after the 2015 season.  It's difficult to find a strong comparable for Maybin but Ben Nicholson-Smith has suggested that Jose Tabata might be the best point of reference currently available.  Tabata's deal with the Pirates will pay him $11.5MM for his three remaining years of arbitration eligibility.

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