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Postseason Injury Notes: McCullers, La Stella, Belt, Watson

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Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. departed after four frames yesterday, and manager Dusty Baker told reporters after the contest that the decision was prompted by the right-hander informing the team of some tightness in his right forearm. Pitching coach Brent Strom said after the game (video link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that McCullers acknowledged some elbow tightness, but Strom added that he’s remaining “optimistic” that the issue won’t prove to be major. McCullers, who had Tommy John surgery in 2018, told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and others that he doesn’t believe the issue to be ligament-related. The club will surely evaluate him in the coming days as it determines whether McCullers will be able to contribute to the rotation for their ALCS showdown against the Red Sox.

A couple more key injury scenarios to monitor as the postseason field narrows…

  • Giants infielder Tommy La Stella exited last night’s game with the same Achilles discomfort that has plagued him for the past several weeks, manager Gabe Kapler said after the game (Twitter link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Despite the ongoing issue, La Stella is expected to be ready to play for tomorrow’s winner-take-all Game 5, per Kapler. There’s an argument to be made for swapping La Stella out for a healthier Thairo Estrada, but removing La Stella from the NLDS roster would also render him ineligible to play in the NLCS. La Stella has three singles in eight at-bats, plus a pair of walks, thus far in the NLDS against the Dodgers. He hit .250/.308/.405 through 242 regular-season plate appearances during the first season of a three-year contract with the Giants. As it stands, the Giants also have Donovan Solano and Wilmer Flores as potential options at second base.
  • The Giants are also seeing progress from injured first baseman Brandon Belt and left-hander Tony Watson, notes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter links). Belt, still hoping to return from a fractured left thumb at some point during a potential NLCS or World Series run, took grounders and made some throws yesterday. Any throwing is of some note, given that the fracture is in his throwing hand. Meanwhile, Watson tossed a bullpen session yesterday that went well enough for the Giants to believe he’ll be ready to return for the NLCS, should they qualify. Watson has been out since late September due to a shoulder strain. The 36-year-old pitched to a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings in his second stint as a Giant after being acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline.

Giants Notes: Bryant, Watson, Wood

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As the Giants do battle in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, Kris Bryant will be manning first base. Before the game, the versatile Bryant offered John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle a positive review of his time out west, drawing comparisons to the fun, winning culture cultivated during the Cubs’ 2016 playoff run and suggesting openness to a longer-term arrangement. Whether there’s enough mutual interest in a reunion will likely come down to dollars, but this endorsement will only serve to intensify reunion rumors between Bryant, a West Coast native, and San Francisco in the months ahead.

A couple other notes out of the Bay Area…

  • Left-handed reliever Tony Watson is working his way back from a shoulder strain in hopes of returning to a potential Giants’ NLCS roster. The veteran acknowledged to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic however that he may be running out of time. Advancing past the Dodgers is the Giants’ chief objective at the moment, but if they do just that, it would be a boon to their pitching staff if Watson returned. Acquired in a mid-season trade with the Angels, Watson dominated for the first-place club down the stretch— in 26 appearances he produced a stingy 4.4% walk rate, a sub-3 ERA (140 ERA+), and was among the best in the league at limiting hard contact.
  • J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group meanwhile offered some insight into another barrel-dodging left-hander. Alex Wood spoke to Hoornstra about his decision to sign with the Giants this past offseason after securing a ring with the Dodgers during last year’s campaign. Wood spoke glowingly of his time in LA but cited his relationship with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and a clearer path to consistent starts as a reason to move on. Signed to a one-year, $3MM contract, Wood’s performance has been one of several unmitigated successes for the upstart Giants this year. Boasting above-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates of 26%, 6.7%, and 50%, Wood helped his club across 26 starts to win the NL West by the thinnest of margins. His 3.83 ERA looks sustainable in the eyes of advanced metrics, a factor likely to play into yet an even more competitive offseason for the starter’s services.

Brandon Belt, Johnny Cueto Not On Giants’ NLDS Roster

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The Giants announced their National League Division Series roster this morning, with first baseman Brandon Belt and right-hander Johnny Cueto representing the most notable omissions. Belt’s absence was entirely expected, as he sustained a fracture in his thumb less than two weeks ago — an injury that initially came with a roughly four-week recovery period. He’s hoping to be able to return if the Giants advance to the NLCS, though there’s no certainty he’ll be able to do so. Cueto’s omission is not injury-related, but he wasn’t slated to make a start in a best-of-five series so the Giants will instead opt for 14 position players and 12 pitchers.

Here’s the roster they’ll carry into their date with their archrival Dodgers…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

There’s no sugar-coating what a tough loss it is for the Giants to be without Belt, who has not only enjoyed a resurgence but has produced at previously unforeseen levels during his age-33 and age-34 seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Belt has been the third-best hitter in all of baseball, by measure of wRC+ (163), trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in that time (min. 500 plate appearances). In his past 560 trips to the plate, Belt has turned in an outrageous .285/.393/.595 batting line and connected on 38 home runs and 27 doubles. Each of Flores, Ruf and Wade has seen time at first base for the Giants this season, and Bryant is certainly capable of slotting in at the position as well.

It’s possible that Cueto could be added back to the NLCS roster — a best-of-seven set that could include games on three consecutive days and thus increase the importance of adding some length to the pitching staff. While it hasn’t been one of Cueto’s best seasons, the 35-year-old posted solid results in 22 appearances (21 of them starts). The two-time All-Star and former Cy Young runner-up tallied 114 2/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball with an even 20 percent strikeout rate and a very strong 6.1 percent walk rate. He’s in the final season of a six-year, $130MM contract that contains a $22MM club option with a $5MM buyout.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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It took 162 games to decide things, but given all of the uncertainty heading into the final day of the regular season, it is perhaps an upset that a 163rd game (or even a 164th) wasn’t required.  However, the field for the 2021 postseason has now been decided.

The Giants outpaced the Dodgers in a stunning NL West pennant race.  San Francisco shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games, the most victories in the franchise’s 139 seasons.  As a reward, the Giants will get a few days to rest and prepare for the NL Division Series opener on Friday, while Los Angeles (with a whopping 106 wins) will now have to sweat out a single-game eliminator against the hottest team in the sport.

The Cardinals roared into the NL wild card game thanks to a 35-16 record over their last 51 games, including a franchise-record 17-game winning streak.  The Dodgers will host the Cards on Wednesday, and while the two clubs are postseason regulars, this will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 2014.

After a season of tributes to the late Henry Aaron, perhaps it was destiny that Milwaukee and Atlanta would do battle in the postseason for the very first time.  The 95-67 Brewers will host the 88-73 Braves in Game One of their NLDS meeting, which begins on Friday.

The Brewers caught fire in midseason and ran away with the NL Central, topping St. Louis by five games even despite the Cards’ late surge.  Despite a few shaky moments along the way, the Braves nonetheless overcame the loss of injured superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to capture their fourth straight NL East title.

“Champa Bay” has already collected two Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl within the last two years, and the 100-62 Rays will look to add a World Series title to the local trophy case.  The Rays will start their journey in the AL Division Series on Thursday, and they’ll be facing off against a familiar AL East opponent, no matter who wins the AL wild card game.

That opponent will be decided on Tuesday, as the Yankees and Red Sox will add another chapter to their rivalry by meeting in the wild card game for the first time.  Both New York and Boston won today to clinch their postseason berths, finishing with identical 92-70 records (and holding off the 91-win Blue Jays and the 90-win Mariners).  Because the Sox won the season series by a 10-9 margin, Tuesday’s game will take place at Fenway Park.

The Astros and White Sox will square off in the other ALDS matchups, meeting for the first time in the postseason since Chicago defeated Houston in the 2005 World Series.  The 95-67 Astros have the homefield advantage over the 93-69 White Sox, and this series will mark the first-ever postseason meeting between veteran managers Dusty Baker and Tony La Russa.

Now that we know which 10 teams will be continuing into October, the question remains….who do you think will be the last team standing at the end of October? (Link to poll for app users)

Who will win the 2021 World Series?
Giants 18.31% (6,375 votes)
Dodgers 16.69% (5,811 votes)
Rays 13.92% (4,847 votes)
Cardinals 10.28% (3,581 votes)
Braves 9.63% (3,354 votes)
White Sox 9.17% (3,195 votes)
Brewers 7.00% (2,439 votes)
Astros 5.79% (2,016 votes)
Yankees 5.25% (1,827 votes)
Red Sox 3.96% (1,379 votes)
Total Votes: 34,824

Roster Moves: Contreras, Lopez, Detmers, Guerra, Quintana

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Catching on some of the roster moves that took place before today’s slate of games…

  • The Cubs placed Willson Contreras on the 10-day injured list due to right hip inflammation, officially ending the veteran catcher’s season.  In corresponding moves, Alfonso Rivas was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, and catcher Tyler Payne made his MLB debut today after his contract selected from Triple-A.  One of the few veterans remaining in the wake of the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, Contreras might be either a trade candidate or an extension candidate this winter, depending on the club’s next direction.  Contreras finishes the year hitting .237/.340/.438 with 21 home runs over 483 PA.
  • The Marlins activated Pablo Lopez from the 60-day injured list, as Lopez tossed 1 2/3 innings in an abbreviated start during Miami’s 5-4 win over the Phillies today.  It marked Lopez’s first game since July 11, as a right rotator cuff strain interrupted a very impressive season for the 25-year-old.  Lopez posted a 3.03 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates over his first 101 innings, setting himself up for 2022 as yet another quality young arm in the Marlins rotation. To make room for Lopez’s return to the roster, Miami placed left-hander Sean Guenther on the 10-day IL and moved first baseman Jesus Aguilar to the 60-day IL.
  • The Angels called up left-hander Reid Detmers to start today’s contest with the Mariners, and also activated righty Junior Guerra from the 10-day IL.  Outfielder Taylor Ward heads to the 10-day IL with a right adductor strain while southpaw Jhonathan Diaz was optioned to Triple-A.
  • Jose Quintana cleared waivers and outrighted to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate.  San Francisco designated Quintana for assignment earlier this week, after the veteran left-hander posted a 4.66 ERA over 9 2/3 innings with the Giants.  Quintana was claimed off waivers from the Angels at the end of August, as the Giants looked to add some lefty depth down the stretch.

Giants Activate Jake McGee, Option Thairo Estrada

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The Giants will activate southpaw Jake McGee today, bringing their nominal closer back to the roster in time for a tune-up before the postseason begins next week.  To make room on the roster, infielder Thairo Estrada has been optioned to Triple-A, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com (via Twitter).

McGee returns after two lost weeks due to a right oblique strain. Fortunately for McGee and the Giants, it was on the milder side of oblique problems, so McGee is able to return even before the regular season is out, let alone the playoffs.  After being part of the Dodgers’ World Series team last year, McGee is looking to capture his second ring in as many years, and the veteran lefty has been a major part of the Giants’ success.

McGee has a 2.72 ERA/3.45 SIERA over 59 2/3 innings out of San Francisco’s bullpen, with a 4.2% walk rate that ranks among the league’s best.  That excellent control has helped McGee overcome some hard contact, and with a .228 BABIP, it’s fair to say McGee that had some good fortune behind his 2021 numbers.

Though the Giants are pretty flexible with their late-game relief alignment, McGee has gotten the bulk of save chances this year, with 31 saves in 36 opportunities.  Seven other pitchers have also gotten saves for the Giants this year, with Tyler Rogers leading the second-choice pack with 13 saves, and rookie Camilo Doval stepping up in recent days with three saves.  In short, manager Gabe Kapler will have plenty of bullpen arms to work with as the Giants head into October, as the club is more apt to roll with the hot hand or play matchups rather than deploy McGee in a traditional closer role.

Giants Designate Jose Quintana For Assignment

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The Giants announced they’ve reinstated first baseman Darin Ruf and right-hander Johnny Cueto from the injured list before this evening’s game against the Diamondbacks. In corresponding moves, left-hander Tony Watson landed on the 10-day injured list due to a strain in his throwing shoulder, while fellow southpaw José Quintana was designated for assignment.

The transactions series likely ends Quintana’s time in San Francisco after just a few weeks. The Giants claimed Quintana off waivers from the Angels at the end of August, absorbing the approximate $1.5MM remaining on his contract to add him just before the deadline for players to be eligible for teams’ postseason rosters.

Picking up Quintana didn’t work out quite as planned. He made five relief appearances with San Francisco, working 9 2/3 innings of five-run ball. The 32-year-old punched out twelve batters in that limited time, but also issued six walks and was tagged for three home runs. Evidently, the front office determined they were content with their other lefty bullpen options — even as Watson lands on the IL — to let Quintana go before the start of the postseason.

Quintana will almost certainly wind up hitting free agency in the next couple days, either via release or rejection of an outright assignment. He’ll hit the open market coming off a disappointing season. Signed by Los Angeles to a one-year, $8MM deal in free agency, he was bumped from the rotation after posting a 7.22 ERA through his first nine starts. He didn’t find much more success in relief, posting a 5.52 ERA from that point forward between the Angels and Giants.

It was an atypical season for Quintana, who has offered quality production over the course of his career. He was quietly one of the game’s better starters for a few seasons with the White Sox, leading to a blockbuster crosstown deal that sent him to the Cubs in 2017. That trade — which sent Eloy Jiménez and Dylan Cease to the South Siders — quickly proved regrettable for the Cubs, but Quintana did at least offer consistent innings and useful production for much of his time in Wrigleyville.

He lost most of last season due to injury, though, and his 6.43 ERA this year is by far the highest of his career. That’s been driven by personal-worst walk and home run rates, but Quintana has curiously been better than ever before at missing bats. He’s punched out 28.6% of opposing hitters on the strength of an 11.9% swinging strike rate; both marks are career-highs and above the league average. That extreme production came into play even before Quintana was moved to the pen, as he’d fanned 30.1% of batters faced over his first nine starts.

With Quintana and Watson out of the picture, the Giants look likely to enter the playoffs with Jarlin García and José Álvarez as lefty relief options. Manager Gabe Kapler didn’t rule Watson out for the entire postseason when speaking with reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), but it at least seems he’d miss the Division Series if the club advanced to that point. Acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline, Waston has posted a 2.96 ERA over 24 1/3 frames with San Francisco.

Ruf looks likely to assume the bulk of the playing time at first base moving forward. Brandon Belt fractured his left thumb after being hit by a pitch over the weekend, and that injury could cost him most or all of the team’s playoffs. Like so much of the roster, Ruf has excelled when given the opportunity this year. Through 300 plate appearances, he owns a .268/.387/.512 line with fifteen home runs. Belt’s injury could force the Giants to deploy Ruf more against right-handed pitching than they have so far, but he’s more than held his own in limited action against righties while absolutely mashing southpaws.

Brandon Belt Expected To Miss Around Four Weeks Due to Thumb Fracture

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SEPTEMBER 28: Belt has been placed on the 10-day injured list, with Thairo Estrada recalled to take his active roster spot. Belt’s fracture is expected to take around four weeks to fully heal, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s possible the club attempts to expedite his return to the field even before the bone is fully healed, with the plan for Belt to be reevaluated on an approximately weekly basis.

That wouldn’t officially end Belt’s season, but it does seem likely the Giants will need to make a deep postseason run (perhaps as far as the World Series) to give him an opportunity to return. Ruf, who is eligible to be activated from his own IL stint this week, seems likely to handle first base for the Giants throughout most of the playoffs.

SEPTEMBER 27: The Giants have announced that an x-ray revealed a fracture in the left thumb of first baseman Brandon Belt, as relayed by several reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Belt was hit on the thumb by a pitch in yesterday’s game and was pulled a short time later. The expected recovery timeline is still unknown right now, as Belt still plans on more meetings with doctors, per Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. However, for comparison’s sake, both J.T. Realmuto and Joey Votto suffered a fractured thumb earlier this year and missed about a month before returning to action.

This is awful timing for Belt and the Giants, both because the postseason begins in a week and because Belt had been on such a tear of late. Since returning from a knee injury August 5th, Belt’s slash line is an absurd .297/.394/.690, hitting 18 home runs in that stretch. That production is 83% better than league average, according to wRC+. After three straight years of lagging production from 2017 to 2019, Belt has essentially been on fire the past two years. Since the start of the 2020 season, in 148 games, his line is .285/.393/.595. His wRC+ of 163 in that time is the third-best in the majors among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper.

As for the team, they are already guaranteed a playoff spot, though which kind is still to be determined. They are currently two games ahead of the Dodgers for the lead in the NL West, with each team having six games remaining. In the absence of Belt, they will likely turn to Wilmer Flores and LaMonte Wade Jr., who have each seen some time at first base this year. Darin Ruf could be an option down the road, but he himself was just placed on the IL on Thursday with an oblique injury. Those three all have good numbers this year, but the loss of Belt’s potent bat is certainly a blow to the offense, as it would be to any team’s.

It’s also unfortunate timing for Belt, career-wise, as he’s heading into free agency in just over a month. This injury could deny him the ability to add to his postseason ledger, which already includes a pair of World Series titles with the Giants in 2012 and 2014. Although, based on the incredible numbers he’s put up over the past two seasons, he should still garner plenty of interest on the open market, even if he’s unable to make another appearance this year.

Brandon Belt To Undergo Additional Tests On Thumb Injury

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was hit on the left thumb by a Lucas Gilbreath pitch during the seventh inning of San Francisco’s 6-2 win over the Rockies today.  Belt took his base, but was replaced at first base for the bottom half of the inning.

Manager Gabe Kapler told The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser and other reporters that Belt will be examined tomorrow when the Giants return home, as an initial round of x-rays were inconclusive.  Belt didn’t speak to the media himself following the game, but teammate Brandon Crawford noted that “talking to him, he seems like he should be all right and hopefully not miss too much time.”

The Giants have already clinched at least a wild card berth, and they hold a two-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West with six games remaining in the regular season.  Since San Francisco doesn’t play on Monday, Belt will get an extra day to recuperate, though even if he has escaped the worst and his thumb is only sore or bruised, it seems like Belt might be a limited factor at best in this critical final week.

Belt’s revival at the plate began in 2020, and he carried that big performance in the shortened season through to 2021. With two more hits in today’s win over Colorado, Belt is now hitting .274/.378/.597 with 29 home runs over 381 plate appearances.  This is despite missing close to eight weeks on the injured list due to an oblique strain and then a knee injury — much of Belt’s best work has come since returning from that second IL trip, as he has a whopping 1.071 OPS over 176 PA from August 5 to September 25.

Depth has been a key part of the Giants’ success this year, and since Belt has missed so much time, such players as LaMonte Wade Jr., Wilmer Flores, and Darin Ruf have all gotten considerable action at first base.  Wade and Flores figure to work a first base platoon until Belt is healthy, and Ruf figures to join the mix when he returns from the IL.  Ruf told Slusser that he expects to be ready to be activated on Thursday, which represents the minimum 10 days after he was sidelined due to an oblique strain.

Giants Sign Ka’ai Tom To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed outfielder Ka’ai Tom to a minor league contract, tweets Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento.

Ironically enough, that comes just days after the Giants added first baseman/corner outfielder John Nogowski on a two-year minors pact. Tom and Nogowski had been released simultaneously by the Pirates earlier this week, less than a month after both players were waived off Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster at the same time.

It’s not clear whether Tom’s minor league pact covers the 2022 season as Nogowski’s deal does, although it seems likely that’s the case. Tom won’t be eligible for San Francisco’s playoff roster as a player added to the organization after August 31, and there wouldn’t be much benefit to bringing him in for the regular season’s final week only to see him depart via minor league free agency this winter.

Tom will look to play his way back into the majors in the Bay Area, where his big league time briefly began this spring. The A’s selected Tom out of the Indians’ organization in last fall’s Rule 5 draft, and he broke camp with Oakland. The A’s waived Tom after just nine games, though, and Pittsburgh gave him a longer look after adding him on waivers.

Between the two clubs, the 27-year-old tallied his first 133 MLB plate appearances. He hit just .139/.278/.231 with a pair of home runs, but Tom owns a much better minor league track record. The left-handed hitter has a .272/.353/.504 line in a brief look at Triple-A, and he’s a .261/.353/.445 hitter over a rather lengthy run in Double-A. Tom’s primarily a corner outfielder, but he has the ability to cover center field if needed and has a long track of drawing walks and getting on base in the minors. He’ll offer a no-risk depth add to the San Francisco system.

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