Checking In On Baseball’s Lowest Scoring Offenses
The Giants won the 2010 World Series with an unspectacular offense and won 86 games in 2011 with one of the lowest scoring offenses in the game, but they're the exception, not the rule. Each of the five highest scoring MLB teams won at least 90 games in 2011, while the Giants were the only one of the five lowest scoring teams to avoid 90 losses.
Here's a look at what baseball's five lowest scoring teams have done to improve their offenses so far this offseason. Team name links go to a summary of the teams' moves on MLBTR's Transaction Tracker and 2011 run totals are in parentheses (for reference, the average MLB team scored 694 runs this past season):
- Mariners (556) - GM Jack Zduriencik has added a number of former Major Leaguers on minor league deals and traded for John Jaso. The Mariners can expect more offense from Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Franklin Gutierrez and others in 2012 and they may make an addition or two before Spring Training.
- Giants (570) - The Giants traded for Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera, who have both been above-average offensive players in the recent past. The Giants could improve considerably with a full season of Buster Posey and possible improvement from Brandon Belt.
- Padres (593) - The Padres traded for Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal earlier this month. Both could conceivably add to the Padres' offense in 2012, and Alonso could have an impact from day one. GM Josh Byrnes has also added role players John Baker and Jeremy Hermida.
- Pirates (610) - The Pirates signed shortstop Clint Barmes, catcher Rod Barajas and outfielder Nate McLouth and traded for infielder Casey McGehee. However, none of the four acquisitions posted an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2011, so it would be unreasonable to expect a surge in scoring based on these additions.
- Astros (615) – Former GM Ed Wade added a handful of players on minor league deals and waiver claims and Jeff Luhnow traded for Jed Lowrie after becoming Houston's new GM.
The Giants are best-positioned to make a significant offensive jump in 2012, in my opinion. Not only do Pagan and Cabrera provide possible upgrades, Posey's return and Belt's upside will likely invigorate the offense that finished last in the National League in scoring in 2011.
Giants, Lincecum Far Apart In Extension Talks
A sizable gap still exists between the Giants and arbitration eligible right-hander Tim Lincecum as the sides explore a possible extension, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Negotiations have taken place this winter, but the sides appear to remain a couple of years and tens of millions of dollars apart.
The Giants are believed to have offered Lincecum four years and $80MM or so this past summer and appear to have enhanced the proposal in the past few weeks. Lincecum is “thought to be seeking an eight-year deal,” but Heyman hears that the sides are also presently considering one and two-year options.
Lincecum projects to earn a 2012 salary of $19.2MM through arbitration. The Giants control his rights through 2013, when his salary could approach or exceed $25MM through arbitration. The Giants’ ultimate goal has been to buy out some of Lincecum’s free agent years, according to Heyman.
Lincecum, 27, has a 2.98 ERA with 9.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 47.1% ground ball rate in 1028 career innings. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client has two Cy Young Awards and four All-Star Game selections to his name. Only four pitchers — Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Dan Haren — have produced more wins above replacement since 2007, Lincecum's rookie season.
Extension Candidate: Madison Bumgarner
The Matt Moore extension showed any young pitcher is a candidate for a multiyear extension, regardless of service time. Once the Giants gain clarity on the situations of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, why not lock up Madison Bumgarner?
Bumgarner, just 22, quietly became one of the ten best pitchers in the National League this year. He posted a 3.21 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, and 46% groundball rate in 204 2/3 innings. It's possible the best is yet to come, as the lefty posted a 5.8 K/BB ratio over his final 23 starts.
Bumgarner is represented by SFX, the agency that ranks fourth in extensions since 2009 with seven. Four of those were for starting pitchers Zack Greinke, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander, and Clay Buchholz. The Giants have a GM in Brian Sabean who is open to extensions, so the biggest question may be whether Bumgarner prefers long-term security or maximum year-to-year earnings. Bumgarner received a $2MM signing bonus as the tenth overall pick in 2007, so he already has some measure of financial security.
Bumgarner has one year and 127 days of Major League service. Since January of 2008, four pitchers with at least one year of service but less than Bumgarner's 1.127 have signed multiyear extensions: James Shields, Jimenez, Brett Anderson, and Wade Davis. All signed four-year deals worth $10-12.6MM. The Rays' Davis and Shields each allowed for three club options, while Anderson and Jimenez have two. A third Rays starter, Moore, merits a mention in that he signed for more money than any of them, getting a $14MM guarantee with just 17 days of service. Moore's contract also includes three club options.
It's easy to see that Bumgarner is more accomplished than Shields, Jimenez, Anderson, and Davis were at the time their extensions were signed. Bumgarner has a 3.10 career ERA, while the others were all over 4.00. Anderson and Shields had similar strikeout and walk rates, but Bumgarner hasn't been nearly as homer-prone. Bumgarner has the most wins, at 20. Only Shields tops Bumgarner's innings total, a small 14-inning advantage that swings to Bumgarner when postseason innings are included.
If the Giants don't get at least one of Bumgarner's free agent years, an extension probably isn't worth considering for them. Unless the lefty's extension is to shatter precedents, he'll probably have to accept club options on his third arbitration year and first free agent season. If I were Bumgarner's agent, I'd be aiming for at least $16MM on a four-year deal. A big win would be to get his third arbitration year guaranteed, pushing the value to $23-24MM over five years. That might seem pricey now, but another strong season will push the required guarantee past $30MM.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Extension Candidate: Matt Cain
Heading into this offseason, pundits seemed unable to agree whether C.J. Wilson or Yu Darvish was the most desirable pitcher available to MLB teams. While a case could be made for either hurler, they likely would've been battling for second place had Giants right-hander Matt Cain not signed a contract extension delaying his free agency by a year. Prior to the 2010 season, Cain and the Giants agreed to a three-year, $27.25MM deal that will make him a free agent after 2012, rather than 2011.
The extension, Cain's second with the team, has worked out splendidly for San Francisco. The 27-year-old enjoyed arguably his best two seasons in 2010 and 2011, earning Cy Young votes for the first time while posting a 3.01 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and just 2.5 BB/9 in 66 starts. Cain will make $15MM in 2012, but if the Giants hope to keep him past next year, they'll have to commit significantly more money than that.
Earlier this month, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reported that the Giants figure to be aggressive in their attempts to lock up Cain before Spring Training. The club has also been said to prefer extensions of about four years, so what would a long-term deal for Cain look like?
The going rate for elite arms suggests Cain could aim for $20MM+ annually on a long-term deal on the open market if he pitches well again in 2012. Baggarly spoke to an executive who thought the Landon Williams client could land a $150MM deal as a free agent, and while that prediction may be a little bullish, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Cain will turn just 28 as the 2012 season ends, and recent marquee free agents like Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia signed for annual average values of about $23-24MM. Meanwhile, pitchers that signed extensions with their current teams, such as Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and Roy Halladay, will make about $20MM for most of their free agent years. Although Cain may not quite be in the same company of those Cy Young winners, he certainly has a stronger track record than Wilson, whose new contract exceeds $15MM in annual average value and reportedly wasn't even his largest offer.
If we assume the Giants can get Cain to agree to a four-year deal, not including 2012, they could be looking at a commitment in the neighborhood of $100MM over the next five years — $15MM for 2012, $20MM each for the next four, and maybe a $5MM buyout on a 2017 option. Cain has played it relatively safe with his previous contract extensions, so perhaps he'd pass up a chance at the open market to remain with the Giants long-term at that price.
What remains to be seen, however, is whether the Giants even be willing to offer such a contract. Barry Zito still has $46MM remaining on his seven-year deal, Madison Bumgarner's cost will soon increase significantly (potentially next winter as a Super Two), and most importantly, the Giants would like to lock up two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, who could soon become the most expensive of all their starters. Given the club's struggles to produce offensively in recent years, it may not be viable to tie up so much money in the starting rotation.
In his previously linked piece, Baggarly wrote that there's a "feeling around the league" San Francisco will have to part with either Cain or Lincecum at some point, rather than keeping both on long-term deals. If that's the case, perhaps the Giants will tip their hand before the season begins — each of Cain's past two extensions were inked in March, before Opening Day.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Quick Hits: Beltran, Wren, Padres, Marshall
Cornelius Alexander "Connie" Mack was born on this day in 1862. After an 11-year playing career, Mack went on to become the manager and co-owner of the Philadelphia Athletics in 1901 and was a fixture in the A's dugout for the next half-century. Between his 50 years with the A's (and three years managing the Pirates from 1894-96), Mack won five World Series titles and compiled a 3731-3948 record. Needless to say, Mack's records for managerial wins and losses will never be broken.
Some news from around the majors…
- The Indians made "an aggressive" two-year contract offer to Carlos Beltran worth "very close" to the $26MM Beltran received from the Cardinals, a source tells Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
- The Braves have been rather quiet this offseason but "the fact is we like our team," GM Frank Wren tells David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "We continue to have some conversations,” Wren said. “We’d have liked to have gotten something done in November in some areas, but just weren’t the matches….We’re continuing to work different options. This was not a good free-agent year, not a lot of players that impacted teams, especially in the areas we would like to get better in.” Wren said the Braves may wait to see how their players perform during Spring Training before deciding if they need to bring in some new acquisitions.
- The Padres still have around $7-$9MM to spend this winter, observes Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune as part of his weekly chat with fans.
- Center also discusses Anthony Rizzo trade rumors, citing the Rays and Cubs as the most interested parties. Center thinks teams who miss out on Prince Fielder (such as possibly the Mariners and Orioles) could look at Rizzo as well.
- The Reds will use Sean Marshall as a setup man, not as a closer, once their deal with the Cubs is finalized, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Fay also wonders if the Reds are working out a contract extension with Marshall, as the price of Travis Wood plus two prospects seems high for a reliever who is only under control through 2012.
- The Mariners are still interested in Jeff Francis, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Seattle wants a veteran like Francis for the rotation to serve as a bridge for the team's young pitchers. We heard about the Mariners' interest in Francis earlier this month, and the Twins, Pirates, Cubs and Rockies have also been linked to the Canadian left-hander.
- Patrick Ebert of Perfect Game runs down the 10 biggest stories that emerged from this year's amateur draft.
- Former Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez told Todd Hollandsworth and Jim Memolo of MLB Network Radio (as reported by MLB.com's Joe Frisaro) that he didn't agree with Miami's signing of Jose Reyes. "You already have an All-Star shortstop, why spend money on another All-Star shortstop?" Rodriguez asked. "Why not put the money into another player, like Albert Pujols or a front-line pitcher?” Rodriguez also wondered how "a very proud player" like Hanley Ramirez would handle switching positions and having Reyes be the center of media attention in Miami.
- The Giants haven't spent much to address their lack of hitting this winter, writes Fangraphs' Wendy Thurm.
Quick Hits: Astros, Fielder, Red Sox, Bonser
The latest links from around MLB on a big day for the Nationals…
- The Astros may not keep Humberto Quintero and Ivan Rodriguez is a possibility in Houston, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. The Astros avoided arbitration with Quintero last week, signing him to a one-year deal worth $1MM.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests agent Scott Boras is “gunning for” an average salary of $25.5MM for Prince Fielder (Twitter link). A contract that generous would surpass Albert Pujols’ average salary of $25.4MM.
- Alex Speier of WEEI.com takes a detailed look ahead to the candidates to make Boston's 2012 rotation. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are the only ones who are guaranteed starting jobs for the Red Sox at this point.
- The Giants are talking to Boof Bonser about a possible minor league deal, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Bonser is recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Pitching Rumors: Red Sox, Felix, Giants, Jurrjens
The Nationals, Red Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays, Royals, Tigers, Mariners, Yankees and Orioles are among the teams still looking to add one or more starting pitchers this offseason, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Here are more details on the market for starting pitching:
- The Red Sox are “in on everybody,” Knobler reports. Peter Gammons of MLB Network confirms that the Red Sox are still looking for starters (Twitter link).
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports makes the case that the Mariners should trade Felix Hernandez this offseason, but Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik disagrees. “I still say, as I’ve said all along, we’ve still got the best young pitcher in the game, and that’s pretty darned good,” Zduriencik said. Rosenthal pointed to the prospects the Padres obtained for Mat Latos and the fact that the AL West has become tougher this offseason.
- The Giants aren’t looking for a free agent to replace Jonathan Sanchez, but are interested in adding pitchers who are willing to accept minor league contracts, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- The Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rockies, Tigers and Rangers are among the teams that have expressed some interest in Jair Jurrjens, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The Braves have suggested they won’t trade the right-hander within their division.
NL West Notes: Cuddyer, Belisario, MacDougal, Ross
A few items of note to pass along out of the NL West …
- Newly signed Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer will earn a base salary of $10.5MM in each year of his three-year contract, although he can earn an additional $1.5MM in incentives in the deal's final year, 2014, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post.
- Cuddyer will man right field for the Rox, while Carlos Gonzalez shifts over to center, tweets Thomas Harding of MLB.com.
- Dodgers reliever Ronald Belisario, who missed the entire 2011 season due to visa issues, has secured a visa and is expected to be in camp on time for the start of Spring Training, according to Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.
- However, Belisario will have to serve a 25-game suspension, which are typically doled out when players fail to comply with treatment programs, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Belisario had issues with substance abuse in 2010 and 2011, which is in part why he had trouble obtaining a visa.
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti says he's still in the market for another reliever despite re-adding Belisario to the bullpen picture, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles. Gurnick reports the Dodgers remain in negotiations to bring back right-hander Mike MacDougal.
- Free agent outfielder Cody Ross, who spent the past season and a half with the Giants, is now seeking a two-year contract, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Ross was originally looking for a three-year pact, but that was only to remain in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, according to O'Brien.
Giants Sign Emmanuel Burriss
The Giants announced that they signed arbitration eligible infielder Emmanuel Burriss to a one-year Major League contract. The team also confirmed the signing of catcher Eli Whiteside to a one-year, Major League deal.
Nez Balelo of CAA Sports represents Burriss, one of San Francisco's many arbitration eligible players. The 26-year-old appeared at every infield position and in left field in 2011 while posting a .204/.253/.212 line in 152 plate appearances. He has appeared in parts of four Major League seasons and had a projected salary of $600K heading into the offseason.
Giants Sign Brian Burres
The Giants signed left-hander Brian Burres to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to Spring Training, MLBTR has learned. San Francisco drafted Burres in the 31st round of the 2000 draft, but the 30-year-old has never played for the Giants at the MLB level.
In six seasons with the Orioles, Pirates and Blue Jays, Burres has a 5.75 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 38.3% ground ball rate. He posted a 3.86 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 14 innings with the Pirates this past season and spent most of the year as a starter at Triple-A, where he posted a 4.66 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 129 1/3 innings.