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Mariners Claim Nick Raposo

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2:20pm: The Mariners have now announced the claim. Their 40-man roster is up to 38 players.

1:00pm: The Mariners have claimed catcher Nick Raposo off waivers from the Blue Jays, MLBTR has learned. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. The Mariners had 40-man roster vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Raposo, 27 in June, still hasn’t made his major league debut. The Cardinals added him to their 40-man roster in June when both Willson Contreras and Iván Herrera were on the injured list, but Contreras was reinstated a few days later. Raposo was optioned to the minors without getting into a game. He was designated for assignment in July when the Cards added Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a deal just before the deadline. He was claimed by the Jays and stuck on their roster until last week, getting designated for assignment again when Toronto signed Yimi García.

Over the past four years, Raposo has taken 808 plate appearances in the minors. He has a combined batting line of .241/.321/.387 in that time, which translates to a wRC+ of 85. Baseball Prospectus has generally given him solid marks for his blocking and throwing in the minors.

The Mariners only really have one proper catcher on the 40-man roster right now in Cal Raleigh. They also have Mitch Garver, who they signed last offseason with the idea of using him as a full-time designated hitter. That plan didn’t work out as Garver struggled with the bat in 2024, so the M’s did eventually put him behind the plate a few times, either to try to extract some value from him or with the hope that returning to catching would somehow help get back in a groove offensively. Seby Zavala was the third backstop to play for the M’s in 2024 but he was outrighted off the roster in September and signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox last month.

It’s unclear how the M’s plan to tackle their catching situation in 2025, apart from Raleigh being the obvious mainstay. If Garver is the backup, then Raposo can serve as an optionable depth piece in Triple-A. If Garver is going to be heavily in the DH mix, Raposo could battle for the backup job. The nature of that battle will depend on who else the M’s bring in, whether that’s veterans on non-roster deals or perhaps other waiver claims such as this one.

Mariners To Re-Sign Josh Fleming To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners are going to sign left-hander Josh Fleming to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Republik Sports client also receives an invite to major league spring training.

Fleming, 29 in May, just signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in August. He made 19 appearances for their Triple-A club down the stretch, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine innings. He didn’t get added to the roster and became a free agent at season’s end, though has now circled back the M’s on a fresh deal.

The southpaw has appeared as a swingman in each of the past five major league seasons, mostly with the Rays but also with the Pirates. He has appeared in 80 major league games, including 25 starts, tossing 254 2/3 innings with a 4.77 ERA. His 14.6% strikeout rate is well below par but his 7.5% walk rate is good and his 58.4% ground ball rate quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched from 2020 to the present, only five of them have a better grounder rate than Fleming: Clay Holmes, Andre Pallante, Framber Valdez, Emmanuel Clase and Logan Webb.

Fleming’s strikeout rate is far lower than everyone in that group, which has prevented him from posting especially strong results, but he’s been serviceable enough to serve as a solid depth piece. On a minor league deal, there’s no risk for the M’s.

Seattle has a very strong rotation but the depth is a little concerning. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are an excellent front five but things get flimsy beyond that. There have been some trade rumors surrounding Castillo this winter, which could lead to Emerson Hancock or Jhonathan Díaz moving up to the number five spot. In the bullpen, guys like Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar are working back from Tommy John surgeries, while Gregory Santos spent most of 2024 on the injured list due to arm issues.

Fleming gives the club a bit of depth for both areas without taking up a roster spot. If he gets added at any point, he is out of options but has less than four years of service time, meaning he could be retained into future seasons via arbitration.

MLBTR Podcast: Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mariners Sign Drew Pomeranz To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners and veteran left-hander Drew Pomeranz are in agreement on a minor league deal, as previously reported by Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The deal presumably includes an invite to major league Spring Training.

Pomeranz, 36, is a veteran of 11 MLB seasons but hasn’t throw a pitch in the majors since 2021. The lefty was generally a solid player who swung between the back of the rotation and bullpen in the early part of his career, often garnering solid results in relief but lackluster numbers in the rotation. Across the first eight seasons of his MLB career, Pomeranz pitched to a 3.92 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 4.14 FIP in 710 innings of work split between 122 starts and 74 relief appearances. The start of the 2019 season was more of the same for Pomeranz, as he struggled in a swing role with the Giants. He posted a 5.68 ERA ERA with a 5.24 FIP in 77 2/3 innings of work.

Those lackluster numbers led San Francisco to deal the lefty to Milwaukee at that year’s trade deadline, and Milwaukee decided to move Pomeranz to the bullpen full-time, converting him into a high leverage relief arm. The lefty looked like a totally different player down the stretch in 2019, dominating to the tune of a 2.39 ERA with a 2.68 FIP with an eye-popping 45% strikeout rate. That stellar performance earned Pomeranz plenty of interest in free agency that winter, and prior to the 2020 season he signed with the Padres on a four-year deal worth $34MM that ran through the 2020-23 seasons. Pomeranz continued to dominate when healthy enough to take the mound for San Diego, with an incredible 1.62 ERA and 2.75 FIP to go with a 33.7% strikeout rate during the life of that contract.

Unfortunately for Pomeranz, however, he managed just 44 1/3 innings of work over the life of the contract due to shoulder, forearm, and elbow injuries. After not pitching in the majors during the 2022 or ’23 seasons, Pomeranz returned to the free agent market and caught on with the Angels and Dodgers on minor league deals but was unable to crack either L.A. roster. Eventually he earned a big league opportunity with the Giants in May, but lasted just a few days on the club’s roster before being designated for assignment without making an appearance. In total, he made just eight appearances at Triple-A for the Dodgers this past season, struggling to a 6.00 ERA but flashing an excellent 37.8% strikeout rate.

That big strikeout stuff clearly caught the attention of the Mariners, who have now picked him up as a no-risk flier who could still contribute to the club’s late-inning mix if he can finally get healthy enough to make it back to the majors. The Mariners have an impressive bullpen mix that includes Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, Collin Snider, and Gregory Santos but lacks a true back-end option from the left-hand side.

Mets, Orioles Among Teams To Inquire After Luis Castillo

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Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo has received plenty of interest from various clubs amid a hot market for starting pitching this winter, with the Red Sox and Cubs among the teams who have been connected to the right-hander so far. A report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal this evening name-checks two more clubs who have “at least inquired” after the veteran: the Mets and the Orioles. With that said, however, Rosenthal emphasizes that Mariners are only willing to deal Castillo if the return package improves the big league club as they look to return to the postseason next year.

Both clubs are certainly sensible suitors for the right-hander. The Mets have already added Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas to a rotation that entered the offseason with only Kodai Senga and David Peterson locked into starting roles for 2025, but those additions offer little certainty to the Mets. That makes a steady and reliable arm like Castillo’s a sensible choice for that final rotation spot in Queens, but it’s unclear whether New York has the big-league ready pieces to offer Seattle in order to facilitate a deal. Top prospect Luisangel Acuna would surely be attractive to the Mariners as a big league ready infield option who looked good in a 14-game cup of coffee with the Mets last year, but the soon-to-be 23 year old could be a major factor in the club’s plans for 2025 given his ability to not only play the infield and also a strong center field. That figures to be particularly true if the Mets fail to re-sign Pete Alonso and move Mark Vientos to first base, which would seemingly open up regular playing time for Acuna at either second or third base.

The Orioles, by contrast, have a surplus of talent around the infield that could be attractive to the Mariners as they look for a front-of-the-rotation arm to replace free agent hurler Corbin Burnes. In particular, the club has a bit of a logjam at first base that the Mariners could stand to benefit from. While it’s unclear if Baltimore would be willing to part ways with top prospect Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn were forced to share first base duties last year thanks to a crowded positional mix that figures to only become more cramped with the growing playing time needs of youngsters like Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, and Jackson Holliday. With Holliday poised to take over second base on an everyday basis in 2025, it’s also possible that a veteran infielder like Ramon Urias could be available for the Mariners in a deal.

Another obstacle to a potential Castillo deal, Rosenthal writes, is that parting ways with the right-hander could leave the club thin on rotation depth. While their top four of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo would remain among the strongest in the sport, big league ready options like Emerson Hancock and Jhonathan Diaz don’t provide much confidence for the Mariners’ back-end. One solution to that problem, of course, could be a young pitcher heading back to Seattle as part of the return for Castillo. The Cubs (Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad), Red Sox (Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell), Mets (Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn), and Orioles (Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers) all have players on the rotation bubble who they could at least theoretically make available in trade talks with the Mariners, should improving rotation depth be key to a deal from Seattle’s perspective.

Cubs Interested In Luis Castillo

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The Cubs are one of the teams who have spoken to the Mariners about Luis Castillo’s trade availability, according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.  The depth of Chicago’s interest isn’t known, or if this interest still exists now that the Cubs have already swung a blockbuster deal to land Kyle Tucker from the Astros.  Castillo also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he could veto things entirely if he doesn’t have interest in going to Chicago.

Since the Cubs were known to be looking for pitching, however, it would make sense that they would at least check in on what seems to be an increasingly available trade candidate. Rumors have been swirling about Castillo’s availability in recent days, as while Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has publicly downplayed the idea of trading from Seattle’s rotation depth, it is thought that Castillo might be the most available of the starting five.  The 32-year-old Castillo is at least five years older than any of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, or Bryce Miller, and much more expensive — Castillo is owed $68.25MM in guaranteed money from 2025-27, plus a $25MM vesting option for 2028 that becomes guaranteed based on health and an innings threshold.

This salary might be the chief reason the M’s would be open to trading Castillo, as the club is known to be operating within pretty limited payroll parameters.  Divish and Jude note that the Mariners are thought to have around $15MM in spending space, and for a team with several needs to address on offense, their options for signings or other trades widen greatly if Castillo’s contract was off the books.  Freeing up some money might allow the M’s to make a more full-on pursuit of Christian Walker, who the Mariners have had “atop their wish list since the start of the offseason,” Divish and Jude write.

A deal that saw Castillo go to Wrigleyville could also logically bring at least one bat back in Seattle’s direction.  The M’s have already been linked to Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, so a swap involving the two of them (if not necessarily a one-for-one) would address both teams’ needs.  Hoerner is owed $23.5MM over the next seasons, so that represents some salary offset if Chicago absorbed all of Castillo’s contract.

On the other hand, sending Isaac Paredes to Houston in the Tucker trade package has already cost the Cubs one starting infielder, so Chicago might now be less willing to move Hoerner.  Top prospect Matt Shaw is viewed as the likeliest candidate to step in at third base in Paredes’ place, and while James Triantos is another highly-touted youngster who might be ready for the big leagues at second base, entrusting two infield jobs to rookies is a risk for the Cubs.

Getting Castillo for Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki would be a cleaner fit for Chicago in dealing from its outfield depth, but the Mariners already have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles slated for starting jobs.  The M’s have Luke Raley set for at least part-time duty at first base and Mitch Haniger penciled in at DH, as well.  This all being said, the Mariners have such a broad need for hitting that it certainly isn’t beyond Dipoto to target a big outfield bat and then get creative in either fitting that bat into the lineup, or perhaps trying to deal Raley or Haniger to land the infield help Seattle more clearly needs.

Installing Castillo alongside Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and the newly-signed Matthew Boyd would suddenly give the Cubs one of the more appealing rotations in baseball.  Plenty more pitching would be on hand as well, since acquiring Castillo would turn fifth-starter candidates Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or top prospect Cade Horton into depth arms.  Speculatively speaking, one of these younger depth arms could also be sent to Seattle in a hypothetical Castillo trade, to give the Mariners a ready-made replacement for the new vacancy in their rotation.

Mariners Receiving More Trade Calls On Luis Castillo

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Over the weekend, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported that the Mariners were willing to entertain offers on Luis Castillo. Trade chatter has picked up in the few days since then. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com writes that the M’s have received a higher volume of trade calls since Max Fried agreed to an eight-year deal with the Yankees on Tuesday.

Castillo, who turns 32 today, seems to be the one member of the Seattle rotation who’ll be available. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has continuously shot down the idea of trading from his young quartet of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller. The M’s reportedly rebuffed the Red Sox when Boston floated a framework of Triston Casas for one of their young starters.

Jon Morosi of the MLB Network suggested yesterday that the Red Sox and Mariners remained in conversations about Seattle’s starting pitching. Boston is probably unwilling to give up Casas for Castillo, however. To that end, Speier relayed last night that a source informed him there was no traction on a deal that would involve those two players.

While Castillo is a less appealing target than Seattle’s controllable arms, he should have positive trade value in his own right. He’s coming off another productive season. Castillo started 30 times and worked to a 3.64 earned run average over 175 1/3 innings. He punched out 24.3% of batters faced against a solid 6.5% walk percentage.

That’s a slight step back from his typical production, as he combined for a 3.47 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate over the preceding three seasons. Even if this wasn’t his best year, Castillo looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. He has topped 150 innings in each of the last six full seasons. Castillo’s fastball sits in the 95-96 MPH range. He still has a better than average strikeout and walk profile.

The differentiators between Castillo and his rotation mates are his contract and age. He’s signed for three more seasons at $22.75MM annually. The deal contains a ’28 vesting option valued at $25MM if Castillo reaches 180 innings in 2027 and finishes that year healthy. There’s some protection for the team in the event he suffers a significant arm injury. If Castillo requires surgery to repair the UCL in his throwing elbow and misses more than 130 days, there’d be a conditional $5MM club option for 2028.

Leaving the options aside, the contract has $68.25MM in guarantees for his age 32-34 seasons. That’s probably a little less than what he’d make if he were a free agent this offseason. Castillo is more consistent than Yusei Kikuchi, who got $63MM going into his age-34 season. He has similar numbers to Nathan Eovaldi, who just inked a $75MM deal for ages 35-37.

One complicating factor: Castillo’s deal includes a full no-trade clause through the end of next season. The trade protection goes away at the end of the year (though he would receive a $1MM assignment bonus if he’s traded after 2025). Kramer writes that the Mariners have informed the righty that they’re fielding more interest. The report doesn’t shed any light to which teams, if any, Castillo would approve a trade.

If he’s amenable to moving, the Mariners should be able to offload most or all of the contract while netting a legitimate return. A potential cornerstone bat like Casas is a stretch, but it’s reasonable to expect some kind of immediate lineup help. It’d also open budgetary space for the front office to add to the offense in free agency. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times have reported that the M’s are working with around $15-20MM in payroll room; Kramer suggests the same in today’s report at MLB.com. Pushing that closer to $40MM would open a lot more opportunities for Dipoto and his staff to strengthen the corner infield.

It would be a notable hit to their rotation. Much is made of Seattle’s young starting pitching, deservedly so. The talent at the top does obscure a general lack of depth beyond their excellent front five, however. Emerson Hancock hasn’t shown much at the MLB level despite his billing as a former sixth overall pick. He has a 4.71 ERA with a 14.3% strikeout rate in 15 big league starts.

Hancock and soft-tossing lefty Jhonathan Diaz are the top depth options on the 40-man roster. The Mariners didn’t need to rely on either pitcher much in 2024. Their front five combined for all but 13 starts all season. Even if they bring back their entire rotation, it’s unlikely they’ll be quite so fortunate from an injury perspective. Trading Castillo would almost certainly necessitate a rotation acquisition, either in that trade or via subsequent free agent pickup. One need only look at how quickly the Marlins’ starting pitching has been depleted over the past two seasons as an example of the risk for teams in believing they have a rotation surplus. That’s no doubt a factor in Seattle’s general unwillingness to listen on their younger arms.

Mariners Seeking Right-Handed, Veteran First Baseman

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It’s been a quiet offseason so far for the Mariners, who have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. They have been linked to trade candidates like Cody Bellinger, Alec Bohm, and Nico Hoerner, and are reportedly listening to offers for Luis Castillo, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto came away from the Winter Meetings without pulling off any swaps either.

Still, the Mariners remain on the lookout for ways to improve an offense that finished 21st in runs scored in 2024. Reports surfaced at the beginning of the offseason that the club was looking for infield bats. Earlier this week, Dipoto confirmed that first, second, and third base are all areas of need (per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). As things stand, shortstop J.P. Crawford seems to be Seattle’s only infielder with a guaranteed everyday starting role.

According to Divish, the Mariners were aiming to check first base off their to-do list before the end of the Winter Meetings. They had previously expressed interest in both Carlos Santana and Justin Turner, and they were apparently willing to offer either veteran a one-year deal this week. Needless to say, neither fish was biting, but that doesn’t mean Dipoto has given up. On that note, Divish offered further insight into Seattle’s pursuit of Santana and Turner, reporting that the team is looking for an experienced hitter who can bat from the right side to split playing time with the lefty-batting Luke Raley. Raley hits well against righties but struggled badly in limited playing time against same-handed pitching in 2024. Turner has had neutral platoon splits throughout his career, and the switch-hitting Santana has done his best work against southpaws. Either could make a productive platoon partner for Raley.

With that said, one has to wonder if the newly minted Gold Glove winner Santana would be willing to accept anything less than a full-time job at first base. He’s coming off his best season in five years and might not be interested in a role that would involve splitting playing time. Turner, on the other hand, thrived in a first base/DH role for Seattle down the stretch in 2024. He has also made it clear that he’d be happy to return to the M’s. At the end of the regular season, he told Daniel Kramer of MLB.com in no uncertain terms, “I would love to be back and be a Mariner.”

Then again, if Santana can be persuaded to sign in Seattle, he might be the more impactful player. Thanks to his strong defense, he has outproduced Turner over the past two years according to every version of Wins Above Replacement. He’s also a year and a half younger than Turner, who turned 40 in November. To that point, Divish suggested the Mariners might be leaning toward Santana in a recent appearance on the “Daily Puck Drop” podcast, saying he believes Santana is their “priority” right now at first base.

Speaking of righty-batting, veteran first basemen, the Mariners have also expressed interest in Christian Walker. Kramer reports the team has had “conversations” about signing Walker, though he notes the three-time Gold Glove winner is probably out of their price range. Indeed, Divish suggests the Mariners have approximately $15MM to $17MM left to spend this winter, barring any trades to cut payroll. Given the fact that Walker turned down the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, he is surely looking for a contract worth more than $17MM per year. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $60MM deal for Walker on our Top 50 Free Agents list. While he could be a far more valuable addition than either Santana or Turner, that value will be reflected in his asking price.

It’s also worth pointing out that a player like Walker certainly isn’t going to split playing time with Raley. He is going to be the everyday first baseman wherever he signs. Thus, if the Mariners were to sign Walker, it would push Raley into the designated hitter role. That could be another reason the fit doesn’t make sense. Alternatively, perhaps Dipoto could package the talented and cost-controlled Raley with one of his higher-priced veterans (such as Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver) as a way to get another team to take on one of his desirable contracts. If he could pull off such a move, perhaps he could free up enough payroll to sign Walker without going over budget.

Red Sox Remain In Rotation Market Following Crochet Deal

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The Red Sox landed the offseason’s top rotation trade candidate this afternoon. Even after acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a four-prospect package, Boston is on the hunt for starting pitching.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that the Sox remained in the rotation market after the Crochet acquisition (Bluesky link via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). The Globe’s Alex Speier reports (on X) that Boston is still engaged on Corbin Burnes as well as mid-tier rotation targets.

That could evidently take the form of either a free agent move or a trade. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that the Sox are still having discussions with the Mariners regarding their starting pitching. Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported on Monday that Seattle rebuffed interest in a framework that would’ve sent one of their young starters to the Sox for first baseman Triston Casas. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken repeatedly of the organization’s reluctance to even consider moving George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller.

Luis Castillo could be a different story. The Mariners are reportedly open to discussing Castillo, whom they owe $68.25MM over the next three seasons. The deal also has a vesting option for 2028. According to Mark Feinsand and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, there’s a belief within the industry that the righty is available (X link). There should be trade value, as Castillo’s deal aligns with what Luis Severino and Nathan Eovaldi have landed on three-year free agent deals. Yet Castillo isn’t as appealing as the M’s young core of much more affordable starters. That price tag surely plays into the M’s willingness to listen to offers, as they’re reportedly working with around $15-20MM in payroll room and could use multiple hitters.

It’s unlikely that the Mariners would trade Castillo strictly for prospects. They’d presumably need an MLB hitter to anchor the return. Casas might be too big an ask if they’re not sending one of their younger arms to Boston. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu is another potential Red Sox trade candidate, though the M’s have less need for an outfielder than they do for an impact bat in the corner infield like Casas.

Whether anything will come of the Sox’s pursuits remains to be seen. At the very least, it’s clear Breslow and his front office aren’t fully satisfied with a rotation comprising Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Lucas Giolito. They gave up a good package of young talent to get Crochet, but he’s eminently affordable from a financial perspective. Boston should have the flexibility to continue identifying free agent targets or take on a notable salary in trade.

Nationals Win Draft Lottery

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Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Nationals
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rockies
  5. Cardinals
  6. Pirates
  7. Marlins
  8. Blue Jays
  9. Reds
  10. White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Rangers
  13. Giants
  14. Rays
  15. Red Sox
  16. Twins
  17. Cubs
  18. Diamondbacks
  19. Astros
  20. Braves
  21. Orioles
  22. Brewers
  23. Royals
  24. Tigers
  25. Padres
  26. Phillies
  27. Mets
  28. Guardians
  29. Yankees
  30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.

Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.

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