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Nationals Win Draft Lottery

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Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Nationals
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rockies
  5. Cardinals
  6. Pirates
  7. Marlins
  8. Blue Jays
  9. Reds
  10. White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Rangers
  13. Giants
  14. Rays
  15. Red Sox
  16. Twins
  17. Cubs
  18. Diamondbacks
  19. Astros
  20. Braves
  21. Orioles
  22. Brewers
  23. Royals
  24. Tigers
  25. Padres
  26. Phillies
  27. Mets
  28. Guardians
  29. Yankees
  30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.

Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.

Mariners Turned Down Triston Casas Trade Offer From Red Sox

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The Mariners’ pitching depth over the last few seasons has drawn many teams into trade talks and it was almost exactly a year ago that reports surfaced about Boston’s interest in the Seattle rotation.  Nothing materialized between the two teams then, but Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times report that earlier this offseason, the Red Sox offered first baseman Triston Casas for either Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.  However, these “exploratory talks” then “didn’t progress any further,” as the M’s don’t have interest in trading from their rotation unless it is something of a last resort.

Given the contrasting strengths and weaknesses of the Mariners and Red Sox, a pitching-for-hitting swap would seem like an ideal answer to both team’s needs.  While Miller or Woo might not be precisely the kind of ace the Sox are looking for to reinforce their rotation, obviously both are talented young arms with upside and team control — neither Miller or Woo is eligible for arbitration yet, and both are controlled through the 2029 season.  Likewise, Casas is controlled through 2028 and has already shown glimpses of his potential at the MLB level.

Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has consistently turned down past offers for Miller, Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo.  Recent reports suggest that the M’s are at least open to hearing what teams have to say about Castillo (the oldest and highest-paid member of the rotation), but Divish and Jude write that “the Mariners….are not actively shopping Castillo.”

Nothing is stopping Dipoto from hearing what teams might have to say, just in case someone steps forth with an offer too good to refuse.  However, Dipoto told Divish and other reporters today that “our initial reluctance to any type of deeper discussions on trading starting pitching has probably resulted in a lot fewer phone calls than we’ve usually fielded to this point in the offseason.”

The result is perhaps something of a stalemate, as the Mariners are waiting for rival teams to lower their asking prices and other clubs are waiting for the M’s to become more open to the idea of trading from the rotation depth.  Things could evolve once some free agent pitchers come off the board, or perhaps if the Mariners themselves added a pitcher in the form of Roki Sasaki.  While virtually every team in baseball will be making an appeal to the Japanese ace now that his posting window is officially open, Seattle’s track record with both pitching development and star Japanese players would seemingly put the M’s move above most teams in the bidding process.

In the interim, it seems as though the Mariners will continue to focus on trying to trade from its minor league depth, except as Dipoto notes, “it’s the time where prospects aren’t a driver, where just about everybody is focused on major league players.  And I don’t know why that seems different to me now than it usually does, and maybe that too changes in a week or two with the free agent market really opening up.”

Since shortstop J.P. Crawford is the only established member of the Mariners’ infield, landing a promising first base talent like Casas would go a long way towards shoring up the infield and the shaky lineup as a whole.  That said, the Mariners have at least a part-time first base option already in Luke Raley, who looks to be getting a good chunk of playing time against right-handed pitching.

Since the M’s have been linked to such second or third base trade candidates as Nico Hoerner or Alec Bohm, it could be that Seattle might be trying to address one of those positions first before turning to the comparatively easier-to-fill position of first base.  An industry source told Divish and Jude that the Mariners could look into trying to add a third team into talks with the Cubs about Hoerner, perhaps to help cover some of the money owed in the remaining two years of Hoerner’s contract.

From Boston’s perspective, trading Casas wouldn’t necessarily create a vacancy at first base.  Rafael Devers is a subpar defender at third base, and reportedly the Sox have at least considered moving him to first base in order to open up the hot corner either for one of Boston’s up-and-coming infield prospects, or perhaps for a big free agent like Alex Bregman.  This remains a speculative topic for now, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) today that he hasn’t spoken with Devers about a position change, and Cora in fact praised Devers’ third base work in 2024 as “outstanding.”

Then again, there is no shortage of gamesmanship going on during the offseason, as it was just last month that Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow downplayed the idea of trading Casas.  Reports then surfaced this past weekend that the Sox were considering the possibility of dealing Casas for pitching, and this apparent offer for Miller or Woo only reinforces the idea that Casas is far from an untouchable part of the Red Sox roster.  Of course, this also isn’t to say that Casas is going to be moved for anything less than a premium return.

Mariners Reportedly Willing To Listen To Offers On Luis Castillo

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The Mariners have “expressed willingness” to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Luis Castillo, according to a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The report comes on the heels of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto referring to dealing from the rotation as the club’s “Plan Z” for the offseason back in October. Indeed, it seems as though the club still isn’t necessarily enthused about the idea of parting with one of its starters, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported this evening that while “anything is possible,” the club’s “public and private” stance entering the Winter Meetings is that they don’t want to trade from their rotation.

Even so, that the club is at least somewhat open to offers on Castillo is fairly notable. The right-hander, 32 next week, has three more guaranteed years on the extension he signed with the Mariners prior to the 2023 season. He’ll earn a $24.15MM salary each year from 2025 to 2027, and the contract also includes a possible option for the 2028 season. If Castillo misses more than 130 days due to a UCL procedure in 2025-2027, the contract includes a $5MM team option for the 2028 campaign. Otherwise, the contract includes a $25MM vesting option for 2028 that vests if Castillo throws at 180 innings during the 2027 season and receives confirmation from an independent physician after the season that he hasn’t suffered an injury that’d require him to begin the following year on the injured list.

In short, that somewhat complex deal guarantees Castillo $72.45MM over the next three seasons which could rise to $97.45MM over four years if his option vests. Notably, Castillo’s contract also included a full no-trade clause for the first three years of the deal that will remain in place through the end of the 2025 season, meaning the righty would have to approve of any trade he’s involved in. It’s unclear whether Castillo would be willing to entertain a trade out of Seattle or what his preferences might be, and it’s possible that the right-hander’s no-trade clause could render any trade talks moot if he’s unwilling to leave the Mariners.

Should Castillo and the Mariners both be open to a trade, however, it’s easy to see why he might be of interest to rival clubs. The righty’s $72.45MM guarantee over the next three years isn’t much more than what left-hander Yusei Kikuchi received from the Angels this winter, and Castillo compares quite well to the veteran lefty. Not only is he a year and a half younger than Kikuchi, but the right-hander has also roundly outperformed him on the field. Kikuchi’s pitched to a 3.96 ERA with a 3.78 FIP in 64 starts for the Astros and Blue Jays over the past two years, while Castillo has posted an excellent 3.43 ERA and 3.72 FIP in 74 starts since he first donned a Mariners uniform following the 2022 trade deadline. Given the ever-escalating prices on the starting pitching market and the hesitance many teams have shown engaging on pitchers encumbered by the Qualifying Offer, Castillo could be an attractive alternative to mid-market players like Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta who remain available in free agency.

That’s not to say there are no causes for concern in Castillo’s profile, of course. Castillo has lost nearly two ticks of velocity off his fastball since his peak with the Reds, and since arriving in Seattle his once-superb groundball rate has fallen off to a more pedestrian 39.1% over the past two years. His strikeout rate dipped similarly this year, settling in at just 24.3% in 2024. That left him as a more-or-less league average starter by both results and peripherals this year, as he pitched to a 3.64 ERA with a 3.91 FIP and a 3.79 SIERA in 175 1/3 innings of work. That said, Castillo helps to make up for his diminishing results with volume. He’s been something of a workhorse throughout his career, pitching at least 150 innings in every wire-to-wire, 162-game season of his career while averaging nearly 178 innings per season since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Overall, Castillo is a solid, durable arm who can slot cleanly into the front or middle of virtually any club’s rotation. That should make him an attractive piece in a hot market for starting pitching, and if Castillo is open to a trade it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mariners leverage their excellent rotation to help address other areas of the roster, even as they express reluctance to do so. After all, it’s worth noting that the club may face a budget crunch this winter that makes dealing Castillo and the $24.15MM he’s owed more palatable. While the Mariners are expected to enter 2025 with a payroll higher than their 2024 figure, that’s a point they’ve already reached: RosterResource projects Seattle for a $146MM payroll in 2025, and their year-end payroll this year was $144MM. Even with a small increase to payroll expected, that seemingly leaves very little room for the club to add salary.

That could pose a problem for the Mariners, given their reported interest in adding two infielders this winter. The club has a reported preference to add at the infield corners but has also been connected to middle infielders in the rumor mill, such as Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner and KBO infielder Hyeseong Kim. Cubs first baseman Cody Bellinger and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm are among the other players the Mariners have reportedly considered on the trade market, and the club also reportedly has interest in reuniting with either Justin Turner or Carlos Santana in free agency.

Of course, adding any of those players would cost money, and without a more substantial increase to the budget than expected it could be a tall order to add two of them. The Mariners would surely love to move on from the final year of either Mitch Haniger’s or Mitch Garver’s contract, but both sluggers have negative trade value coming off rough seasons. A Castillo trade, by contrast, likely could bring back a notable return while also clearing plenty of money off the club’s books to afford additional financial flexibility this winter to either dabble in free agency or take on salary on the trade market.

Mariners Notes: Bellinger, Hoerner, Payroll

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The Mariners have been connected to a couple of Cubs recently, with recent rumors that they had discussed both infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times took a look at those talks and some other Mariner topics ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.

Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.

They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.

Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.

However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.

Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.

Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.

Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.

Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.

As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.

He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.

He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.

In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.

Yankees, Astros, Mariners Have Spoken To Cubs About Cody Bellinger

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Cody Bellinger has stood as one of the most recognizable but difficult-to-move names on the offseason trade market. Among the teams to reach out recently are the Yankees, Astros and Mariners, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. However, Levine adds that the Cubs aren’t looking to merely shed Bellinger’s salary, nor do they want to cover much (if any) money in a deal. That’s likely to be an issue. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote this morning that other teams feel the Cubs will need to pay down a notable portion of Bellinger’s salary (or, presumably, take back another contract) if they intend to get much in the way of a return.

The Cubs have been looking to upgrade various spots on the roster but have a tough road to do so, in part due to no-trade clauses for Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Other positions, like first base (Michael Busch) and center field (Pete Crow-Armstrong) are already manned by promising young players. Third baseman Isaac Paredes was only just acquired at the deadline. Second baseman Nico Hoerner makes some sense as an option to free up some cash and a spot in the lineup for a more impactful bat, but he’s coming off flexor surgery.

That’s led the Cubs to at least gauge interest in Bellinger, who passed on the opportunity to opt out of the remaining two years and $52.5MM on his contract at the beginning of the offseason. Bellinger had a fine year overall, hitting .266/.325/.426 with 18 homers and a tiny 15.6% strikeout rate (his second straight season with that exact strikeout rate). But while those numbers were solid, they pale in comparison to his 2023 showing. He also posted lesser defensive grades both in the outfield and at first bae in 2024.

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Cody Bellinger Trade]

The Yankees have been laying some groundwork in the event that Juan Soto ultimately signs elsewhere, showing recent interest in top-tier free agents like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Willy Adames. That said, there’d pretty clearly be room for both Bellinger and Soto on the same roster. Bellinger could slot in at first base in the Bronx, offering another left-handed bat with good contact skills — a contrast to some of the strikeout-prone righties elsewhere in the lineup. He’d also be good insurance in the outfield, given the injury histories of both Aaron Judge and top prospect Jasson Dominguez. Bellinger could also serve as a safety net in the event that Dominguez looks overmatched early on.

In Houston, the Astros have a clear need at first base after their three-year, $58.5MM deal with Jose Abreu went sideways almost immediately. After a poor first year in 2023, Abreu started the 2024 season so poorly that he consented to being optioned to the minors. That Triple-A stint didn’t help, and Abreu was released less than halfway through that three-year deal. The ’Stros subsequently gave most of the playing time at first base to Jon Singleton, who provided light offense and subpar defense the rest of the way.

For the Mariners, first base has emerged as a clear need. They have at least one intriguing in-house option in prospect Tyler Locklear, but the M’s have been linked heavily to veterans Carlos Santana and Justin Turner as they search for a veteran bat at first base (and likely another at the hot corner). Bellinger’s contact skills would help Seattle cut down on the team’s longstanding strikeout issues as well.

The bigger issue with regard to Bellinger isn’t so much his overall ability, but rather the magnitude of his contract. He’s owed $52.5MM over the next two season — a guarantee that’s paid out in heavily frontloaded fashion. He’s taking home a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and is owed a $5MM buyout on a $25MM player option for the 2026 season if he opts out of the contract’s final season next winter. For an acquiring team, Bellinger would add $26.25MM to the luxury tax ledger and would cost at least $32.5MM in terms of actual, present-day salary.

For the 2023 version of Bellinger — .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+), 26 home runs — teams would happily pay that price. Of course, if Bellinger had produced at that same level in 2024, he’d surely have taken the first opt-out opportunity in his contract at the beginning of this offseason. That he chose to forgo his opt-out clause is indicative of the fact that he and agent Scott Boras don’t believe there’s a sizable nine-figure contract waiting for him.

With regard to the Yankees, that luxury number could be problematic. Whether they sign Soto or pursue multiple free agents from the Fried/Burnes/Adames bucket after missing out on him, they’ll surely be a luxury tax payor in at least the third tier of penalty — if not the fourth. Since they’re looking at paying the tax in three straight seasons, that means they’ll either be staring down a 95% tax or 110% tax rate. Bellinger would cost them somewhere between $52-56MM in combined salary and taxes — plus that potential $5MM buyout on the 2026 option. Even for a deep-pocketed club like the Yankees, that’s a staggering price to pay, particularly coming off a good-not-great season for Bellinger.

The Astros, too, have some luxury concerns. RosterResource estimates that they’re just about $7MM shy of the first-tier threshold. They’ve looked into trading Ryan Pressly, but even if Houston were able to unload his full $14MM salary, Bellinger would still thrust them back into luxury territory. The 2024 season was the first in which owner Jim Crane authorized paying the tax. Adding Bellinger would very likely require doing so a second time. Speculatively speaking, a swap of Pressly and Bellinger could make sense for both parties involved, though Pressly can veto any potential deal as a player with 10-and-5 rights.

Luxury considerations don’t apply to the Mariners, but the actual bottom-line cash owed to Bellinger will be an obstacle. Seattle is looking to add two infielders — one at each corner — and ownership doesn’t seem to have an appetite for raising payroll too far beyond last year’s roughly $145MM level. The Mariners already project for a number in a similar range. If they could find a taker for one Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver, perhaps Bellinger would become more realistic. For now, it seems likely that ever-active president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is simply doing due diligence, perhaps hoping the Cubs will pay down some of the contract (if not take someone like Garver back as part of the return).

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

Mariners Looking At Corner Infield Upgrades More Than Second Base

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The Mariners are known to be looking for upgrades at multiple infield positions this offseason, with shortstop J.P. Crawford standing as their only locked-in starter. The M’s have strong interest in bringing back either Justin Turner or Carlos Santana for a second go with the organization at first base, and they’ve reportedly been exploring their options at both second base and third base. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic now writes that Seattle’s focus is more on third base options than at second base. The M’s currently have in-house options like Ryan Bliss, Dylan Moore and top prospect Cole Young at second base.

As it stands, Moore and recent DFA acquisition Austin Shenton are the most prominent options at third base. Moore and fellow infielder Leo Rivas profile better as utility options, with Moore in particular representing a potential short-side platoon option if the M’s add a left-handed bat.

Payroll stands as an obvious obstacle for the Mariners once again. Seattle ownership anticipates an increase in 2025, but likely not by a notable amount. Following the team’s non-tenders of Josh Rojas, Austin Voth, Sam Haggerty and JT Chargois, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times suggested the M’s could have somewhere in the vicinity of $16MM with which to work. There’s surely some wiggle room there, but it’s unlikely the Mariners are going to cannonball into the free agent pool with a splash for, say, Alex Bregman or Willy Adames. Even if the funds for such a move were there, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto prefers to operate primarily on the trade market. In nine years with the Mariners, he’s only given a multi-year deal to one position-player free agent (Mitch Garver at two years and $24MM).

Trade options aren’t exactly plentiful, but there are some names known to be on the block. The Phillies have been shopping Alec Bohm around as they look to change up their offense. Bohm isn’t an elite bat and has a mixed-bag of defensive results at the hot corner, but he’s available and affordable enough, with a projected $8.1MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). Elsewhere in the NL East, former Mets top prospect Brett Baty stands a change of scenery candidate following the emergence of Mark Vientos. Even if the Mets allow Pete Alonso to walk in free agency and move Vientos across the diamond, they could look to bring in a higher-profile third baseman.

Nolan Arenado is also widely known to be available, but he’s owed $32MM next season (plus $27MM in 2026 and $15MM in 2027). The Rockies are paying $5MM of that in each of the next two seasons under the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Denver to St. Louis, but that’s still a big contract for a team that ostensibly has limited budget space. Speculatively speaking, the Mariners and Twins could line up on a deal for a second straight winter. Minnesota has a crowded infield mix and could consider moving Jose Miranda with both Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis as options to flank shortstop Carlos Correa. Then again, Miranda could just move across the diamond to first base, so it’s not as though he’s lacking a clear opportunity in Minneapolis. The Marlins would probably listen on Jake Burger, but he’s the type of low-OBP, strikeout-prone slugger from whom the Mariners have been trying to move away in recent seasons.

The Mariners’ options on the trade market would surely open up if they were willing to deal from their rotation. However, at season’s end, Dipoto not only indicated that moving a controllable starter wasn’t Plan A or B for the Mariners — he likened the notion to “Plan Z” (link via MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer).

Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander have both spoken openly about their fondness for the Mariners’ excellent young rotation and both expressed reluctance to move on from the group. Still, if Seattle were to make any of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo available, they’d perhaps be in position to seek similarly appealing young hitters (e.g. Baltimore’s Jordan Westburg or Coby Mayo).

One point worth considering is that the Mariners’ depth beyond the current rotation isn’t as deep as some might think. Former No. 6 overall pick Emerson Hancock’s stock is down considerably, and he’s viewed largely as a back-end starter. Righty Taylor Dollard has only pitched 8 1/3 innings over the past two seasons. Logan Evans, a 12th-rounder in 2023, significantly boosted his stock with a big 2024 but still hasn’t pitched above Double-A. It’s a similar story with 2021 third-rounder Michael Morales. The Mariners already know they’re not likely to be as fortunate with pitcher health as they were in 2024, and trading one of the current arms only further creates the potential to overexpose some of those inexperienced arms in the event of an injury in the big league rotation.

Mariners Promote Joel Firman To Assistant General Manager

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The Mariners announced a handful of front office promotions on Monday evening. Assistant general manager Andy McKay was given a vice president title alongside his AGM tag. Seattle also bumped Joel Firman to assistant general manager. Scott Hunter was promoted to VP of amateur scouting, while David Hesslink received a bump to VP of baseball product development.

McKay and Firman now jointly hold AGM titles. That ostensibly slots them third and fourth in baseball operations behind president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander. McKay has spent a decade in the Seattle organization. Initially hired as player development director, he briefly worked on Scott Servais’ coaching staff before getting the AGM title during the 2022-23 offseason.

Firman has been with Seattle for 11 seasons. Formerly an intern with the Yankees, the Washington native has worked his way up the M’s analytics department. According to the team’s press release, he’ll be in charge of overseeing the M’s advance scouting work (game planning for opposing teams) while continuing to assume a key role in the team’s research and development.

Matt Brash Ahead Of Schedule In Tommy John Rehab

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  • Mariners fans got an encouraging update on the status of right-hander Matt Brash recently, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported earlier this week that the right-hander is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from his early May Tommy John surgery. Per Jude, the Mariners are “optimistic” that he could return to the club’s bullpen by the end of April this coming season, just under a year after he first went under the knife. Brash’s return would surely be a major boost for Seattle, as he established himself as one of the most exciting young arms in the club’s arsenal during a breakout 2023 campaign. After being moved to the bullpen partway through the 2022 season, Brash’s first full campaign as a reliever saw him lead the majors with 78 appearances while posting an excellent 3.06 ERA with an even better 2.26 FIP. He struck out an eye-popping 34.7% of batters faced that year, and if he can post numbers anything like that in 2025 he’ll be a phenomenal complement to closer Andres Munoz at the back of the Mariners bullpen next year.

Casey Sadler Announces Retirement

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Right-hander Casey Sadler announced his retirement from baseball today on X. In his statement, he thanks many people, including baseball fans, young players, his parents, his coaches and his agent.

Sadler, now 34, was selected by the Pirates in the 25th round of the 2010 draft out of Western Oklahoma State College. He worked his way up the minor league ladder, mostly as a starter, getting some brief big league looks in 2014 and 2015. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in October of 2015 and had to miss the entire 2016 season. In 2017 and 2018, he was back on the hill and pitching in relief a bit more but mostly in the minors, only getting into two big league games in 2018.

He was no longer on Pittsburgh’s roster at the end of 2018 and was able to become a free agent. He ended up having a bit of a breakout in 2019, split between the Rays and Dodgers. He signed a minor league deal with Tampa for that year and eventually tossed 19 1/3 innings for them, with a 1.86 earned run average. He was designated for assignment and flipped to the Dodgers in July, then posting a 2.33 ERA in 27 innings for his new club after the swap. He finished the year with a combined 46 1/3 innings with a 2.14 ERA. His 16% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.7% clip and got grounders on 51.8% of balls in play.

In 2020, he wasn’t able to build off that performance in the pandemic-shortened season. He was flipped to the Cubs and later to the Mariners, finishing the year with a 5.12 ERA in 19 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate jumped to 24.4% but he also gave free passes to 14% of opponents.

But an even better breakout than 2019 followed in 2021. He tossed 40 1/3 innings for the Mariners that year with a miniscule ERA of 0.67. He had a 25.5% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 62.9% ground ball rate. He moved up the bullpen pecking order, eventually earning 15 holds that year.

Unfortunately, he was never able to build on that incredible campaign. He and the M’s avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $1.025MM salary for 2022 but Sadler required season-ending surgery in March, before the campaign even began. He spent the entire season on the injured list and was outrighted off the roster in November. He re-signed with the Mariners on a minor league deal for 2023 but spent much of that year on the minor league injured list and struggled when on the mound.

Per Sadler’s retirement announcement, he recently thought he would require another Tommy John surgery but then found out the problem was mental. His wife had started a pitching lesson business, which she asked him to get involved in. Sadler says that working with the younger pitchers gave him a renewed sense of purpose and improved his mental health, but also reduced his own desire to play.

Injuries prevented him from being on the big stage for long, but he performed exceptionally well when under the lights. Sadler retires with 101 major league games under his belt and a 2.86 ERA in that time. He struck out 104 opponents, recording one save, 22 holds and six wins. We at MLBTR congratulate him on a fine career and wish him the best in all his future endeavors.

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