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Latest On Giancarlo Stanton

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The Cardinals have been linked to Giancarlo Stanton in trade speculation since the summer, and now Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com writes that the Cards are reportedly willing to offer the Marlins “one of their best young pitchers” in a Stanton trade, provided that Miami covers some of the $295MM remaining on the slugger’s enormous contract.

St. Louis is known to be looking for a difference-making bat this offseason, and few fit that description better than Stanton, fresh off a league-leading 59 homers in 2017.  Acquiring Stanton, of course, will be no easy feat, even with the Marlins looking to pare down their payroll by getting Stanton’s contract off their books.  Assuming Stanton, who has full no-trade protection, even approves of a deal to St. Louis, the Cardinals and Marlins would then have to work out what would undoubtedly be a complex set of negotiations to determine the players and money involved in such a trade.

The $295MM figure is enough to give any team pause, and Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak expressed wariness back in August about how large contracts can adversely impact a team’s performance.  It isn’t surprising that the Cards would want the Marlins to eat some of Stanton’s contract to make a deal happen, though the dollar figure will surely hinge on just how many good prospects St. Louis is willing to send Miami.

Looking at young pitching within the Cardinals’ system, names like Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara, Junior Fernandez, and Dakota Hudson all stand out as candidates to be the mystery arm on offer to the Marlins.  Weaver, Flaherty, and (depending on his recovery from Tommy John surgery) Reyes are all expected to play roles on the Cardinals’ staff in 2018, however, and pitching depth will be necessary given Adam Wainwright’s struggles and Lance Lynn’s likely departure in free agency.  The Cards could deal a young starter and then acquire a veteran via trade or free agency as a replacement, though that could require another sizeable financial commitment, which the club could be hesitant to make if it did land Stanton (even with Miami eating part of the contract).

Despite Stanton’s huge production last year, it seems inevitable that the Marlins will have to cover some of the money owed in order to make a deal happen.  “Three different general managers of profitable market teams” tell Gammons that Stanton wouldn’t be claimed if he were to suddenly be placed on waivers, due to the financial commitment required to sign him.

The Red Sox have also been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Stanton, though Gammons finds it “unlikely” that the slugger would approve a deal to Boston — to this end, the Sox haven’t reached out to Joel Wolfe, Stanton’s agent.  It has been rumored that Stanton, a California native, wouldn’t approve of a trade that would keep him on the east coast, though his only stated priority is avoiding another rebuilding situation.  As Gammons notes, the Red Sox also can’t match the Cardinals when it comes to young pitching prospects that are close to MLB readiness.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With an extra-inning loss to the division rival Cubs on September 28th, the St. Louis Cardinals were eliminated from postseason contention, marking the first time the club has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2007-2008. However, the future of the organization looks bright. An invasion of talent from the minor leagues came up this season to support a core of proven veterans, and the continued development of that fresh crop of talent alone will probably help the team take a step forward. The Cardinals have a deep roster and a bit of wiggle room in their payroll to fill in the gaps, including a potential big one in the rotation should free agent starter Lance Lynn decide to sign elsewhere.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information]

While many were surprised at the Cardinals’ pessimistic preseason PECOTA projection, the club ended up finishing 83-79, good for third in the NL Central. But the team scored 761 runs while allowing 705, putting their pythagorean record at 87-75. If this record is a better reflection of the club’s true talent, then it’s easy to imagine that the Cardinals only need a little retooling to make it back to the playoffs in 2018. They have an astonishingly deep MLB roster, and equally impressive vertical depth in the upper minors.

That’s good news for manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals’ front office… the club hasn’t missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since before the turn of the century. The expectations of St. Louis fans are always high, and there’s probably at least some pressure not to disappoint them for a third consecutive year.

After firing pitching coach Derek Lilliquist and bullpen coach Blake Ilsley, the Cardinals hired Mike Maddux to be their new pitching coach. The Redbirds were said to be seeking a “more modern approach to starter usage and bullpen deployment“, and ultimately landed on Maddux after considering many potential candidates. They’ll hope his 15 years of experience can help get the most out of their young set of hurlers.

One question facing the Cardinals is whether or not they ought to bring back Lance Lynn. They’ll first need to decide whether or not to give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $17.4MM this year. Lynn’s 4.82 FIP and 10.1% walk rate in 2017 were both career highs, while his 19.7% strikeout rate was a career low. Part of that could possibly be attributed to Lynn losing a full mile per hour on his fastball after missing all of 2016 due to a torn UCL and resulting Tommy John surgery. However, his actual results (3.43 ERA across 186 1/3 innings) were typically strong, and Lynn has a great track record of success in the majors. From 2012 through 2015, the right-hander posted a 60-38 record and was worth 13 fWAR, never pitching fewer than 175 innings.

Since the Cardinals did not receive revenue sharing in 2017, they wouldn’t be eligible to receive a compensatory pick after the first round under MLB’s new qualifying offer system if Lynn declines a QO. Instead, they’d receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the draft’s second round. Regardless, Lynn’s earning power is likely to be far more than $17.4MM in total guarantees, so the likelihood that he’ll decline a QO should be incentive enough for the Cards to offer him one and acquire the draft pick (and corresponding bonus pool money).

Beyond that, it doesn’t seem as though the Cardinals have all that much interest in bringing Lynn back. He’s rumored to be seeking a Jordan Zimmerman-sized deal, which seems a bit outlandish and certainly more than the Cardinals are willing to pay for him. Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright will occupy three spots in the rotation, and beyond that the Cardinals would probably like to see what they have in Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty rather than take a risk on a 30 year-old who’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Speaking of which, highly regarded young rightyAlex Reyes will return from his own Tommy John surgery at some point in 2018. The likelihood that he’ll return early in the year will be a factor the Cards take into consideration when addressing their rotation this offseason.

Wainwright, the longtime franchise icon, hasn’t been the same since missing most of the 2015 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. 2017 was his worst season ever, though his peripherals suggest he wasn’t quite as bad as his 5.11 ERA would indicate. Still, he missed significant time with elbow and back injuries. The four-time Cy Young vote-earner seems to no longer be a reliable rotation option, and while the club doesn’t seem interested in spending money to back Lynn, they could potentially look to dole out a one-year deal to a veteran swingman type who could pitch out of the bullpen while Wainwright is healthy. Mike Minor, Francisco Liriano and Wade Miley are potential options in that arena. It’s also possible that the Cards could sign a more reliable starter on a short-term deal, and have Weaver or Flaherty begin the season at Triple-A. However, with three high-upside arms (including Reyes) itching to prove themselves at the major league level, it’s somewhat difficult — albeit hardly impossible — to imagine the Cardinals shelling out significant dollars on a long-term contract for a top-tier or even second-tier free agent starter. If anything, they have enough prospect depth to attempt a trade for Gerrit Cole or Michael Fulmer. Still, they have the payroll space to go after Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, for example, and over the course of the offseason there are many scenarios that could leave them wanting to inquire on those names.

With Seung Hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio set to become free agents, and Trevor Rosenthal a good bet to be non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals bullpen will require some attention this offseason. Oh was mostly ineffective in 2017, but the club might seriously consider a reunion with Nicasio, who served as their closer during the final days of the season after joining the team in September. Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia, Brett Cecil, Matt Bowman, Sam Tuivailala and the hard-throwing Sandy Alcantara all pitched well during this past season and are all under contract for 2018; that group alone is a great start.

Whether the club brings back Nicasio or not, they might be interested in a free agent relief ace to close out games. They’re likely to at least inquire on Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Wade Davis. Spending big on top-tier relievers isn’t something the Cardinals have done historically, however. It’s arguably more likely they’ll give out a cheaper multi-year deal to a proven, high-upside reliever without the marquee closer price tag, like they did when they signed Brett Cecil last year. I’d expect them to be in on Bryan Shaw in particular, especially if they bring Nicasio back. Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek are some other relievers they’ll probably be in on. There are plenty of late-inning options on the trade market as well. A while back, MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd took a look at the Cardinals’ late-inning reliever situation, and explored all potential options in an in-depth MLBTR original.

The Cardinals’ position player depth chart is as deep as any you’ll see in the major leagues. Seven different St. Louis hitters accumulated at least 2 WAR in 2017, which ties the Dodgers for most in the majors. The one area that was lacking in production for the Cardinals was right field. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk were both below-average hitters in 2017 by wRC+. It’s too soon to give up on either one, especially considering they’re both just 26 and were both above-average players last season. It’s also worth noting that Piscotty is signed through 2022, so the club is committed to him in a sense.

That being said, the Cards need more overall production and could enter the offseason willing to part with some depth in favor of quality. Their right field situation could put the Cardinals in the mix for Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins. It’s been rumored that Miami could try and get out from under the remaining ten years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, and St. Louis is one of very few teams with both the prospect depth and financial resources to pay up for last year’s home run champ. I wouldn’t expect them to overpay in terms of prospects, but if Stanton does get traded, St. Louis is as good a landing spot as any. And for a contending team, he could be willing to waive his no-trade clause.

As for Ozuna, he’d come with just two years of team control, but would cost a lot more in terms of prospects. The Cardinals have two Triple-A outfielders who rank within MLB pipeline’s top 100 prospects (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader) and are seemingly blocked at the major league level for the near future. But neither seems to have the type of upside needed to bring back a hitter of Ozuna’s caliber. Their more valuable prospects (Reyes, Flaherty and catcher Carson Kelly) will all be relied upon at the major league level this season. I’d imagine that St. Louis will inquire on Ozuna, but that a trade is unlikely to materialize.

Any trade for a right fielder would make Grichuk an obvious trade candidate. Indeed, even if they don’t acquire an outside player, it would seem that the Cardinals don’t really have a need for Grichuk. Piscotty is under contract for at least the next four years, Tommy Pham was the team’s best player by WAR in 2017, while Dexter Fowler is owed $66MM through 2021. Grichuk is projected to make $2.8MM in his first trip through arbitration, and although those dollars won’t force the Cards’ hand, Bader or Magneuris Sierra would fill a fourth outfielder role at the league minimum salary. O’Neill is close to major-league ready as well.

Grichuk has solid power; he’s hit 66 home runs across 1,386 major league plate appearances. His plate discipline, however, has been the cause of multiple demotions since his first call-up in 2014. With a 30% strikeout rate for his career against just a 6% walk rate, Grichuk has mustered just a .297 OBP during his time in the majors. Still, with his power upside and impressive work with the glove, there are plenty of teams could be willing to take a chance on him.

Trading Grichuk is just one of a few routes the Cardinals could go in order to make use of a surplus of talent on their 40-man roster. The Redbirds have a surprisingly deep collection of solid talent on their expanded roster, but they might consider a number of moves aimed at consolidating that solid talent into elite talent. Though they have four players set to become free agents, they have a number of factors they’ll need to take into consideration in regards to their roster this winter.

Reyes will need to be re-added to the 40-man when he comes off the 60-day DL. While that might not seem like a big deal in and of itself, things get far more complicated when one considers that the Rule 5 Draft is fast approaching. In recent years, the Cardinals have lost high-upside players like Luis Perdomo and Allen Cordoba to the Padres. This season, they have another three players who rank within their top 20 prospects that will become vulnerable to being plucked away by another club, on the condition that they be kept on that new club’s 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season. No. 86 overall prospect O’Neill is a sure bet to claim a spot, while lefty Austin Gomber and outfielder Oscar Mercado might be deemed worthy of protection as well.

So St. Louis faces a tough set of questions in regards to their expanded roster. If they add all four of the above youngsters to the 40-man, those players would take the roster spots of all four of their outgoing free agents. At that point, they’d need to begin designating a player for assignment with each free agent signing they make this winter. If they don’t add Gomber or Mercado, they risk losing either or both for a paltry $50K apiece. So we certainly shouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals end up trading multiple prospects for a single talented major league player early in the offseason, or even if they end up trading someone like Grichuk or Aledmys Diaz for minor league talent.

In recent seasons, the Cardinals have given out long-term contract extensions to young core players. Before the 2017 season, they extended both Martinez and Piscotty. The year prior, they gave second baseman Kolten Wong a contract extension. Going into 2018, there aren’t many players that fit the bill for this type of deal. Tommy Pham would seem like an obvious candidate at first glance, but he’s already 29, so the club might be better served to ride his contract out through arbitration. Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez performed well in 2017, but both have less than a full season’s worth of MLB experience; there’s no rush to lock either player up. The best extension candidate for St. Louis might be right-handed starter Michael Wacha, if they think he has turned a corner, although it’s worth noting that Tyler Lyons could get a consideration as a breakout lefty reliever.

The offseason path for the Cardinals will be one of the most difficult to predict in all of Major League Baseball. They don’t have any glaring holes on their roster, but they’re in need of some upgrades overall. They could make those upgrades in a number of different places and have the resources in payroll space, prospect depth and major league talent necessary to get something done. Count on a busy winter for the front office in St. Louis.

NL Central Notes: Cozart, Cubs, Cardinals

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Despite coming off a roughly five-win season, Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could face a difficult market in free agency, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Buchanan quotes an exec from the American League and another from the National League who suggested that Cozart would struggle to match even the three-year, $40MM pact attained by J.J. Hardy at a similar age three offseasons ago. A lack of contending teams in clear need of a shortstop is working against Cozart, as is the fact that he doesn’t have a track record of producing at his 2017 levels. An NL exec opined that Cozart could expand his market by adopting a super-utility role in which he started a couple of times per week at shortstop, second base and third base, though Buchanan notes that Cozart “feels strongly” about remaining a shortstop. Cincinnati is thought to be “leaning heavily against” a qualifying offer for Cozart, per Buchanan, which would certainly help his free-agent stock. From my view, it still seems likely that a team will ultimately see Cozart as too good a value not to find a spot for him at a certain point. It’s difficult to see his market falling below even the three-year, $33-36MM range, as even if he doesn’t replicate his 2017 excellence at the plate, he could still be reasonably expected to more than justify that level of commitment.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • The Cubs need to replace 40 percent of their starting rotation in 2018, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score, adding that the team is “expected” to pursue an acquisition similar to its July pickup of Jose Quintana (i.e. a controllable arm on the trade market). Levine speculatively lists former Cub Jeff Samardzija (now the Giants and owed $58.5MM through 2020) and Rays right-hander Chris Archer (owed $34MM through 2021, with the final two years being club options) as possibilities. Of course, the Giants have shown no inclination that they’ll be selling off veteran pieces this winter, and the Rays have no pressure to move Archer, whose contract is one of the most affordable commitments to any established starter in the big leagues. Levine also notes Alex Cobb as a potential free-agent target, noting the righty’s connection to manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey — each of whom knows Cobb well from their days with the Rays.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has posted highlights from a lengthy, comprehensive chat on the Cardinals and their offseason plans. There are more than a dozen interesting scenarios covered within, including the team’s search for a closer, the need to add a known quantity to the middle of the lineup and the possibility (or lack thereof) various players currently on the roster will be moved. Goold notes that the Cardinals have had interest in Brandon Morrow on multiple occasions in the past and notes that he could well be a target if the Cardinals ultimately decide to pursue multiple arms and have a competition for the ninth inning next spring. He also adds that St. Louis will likely pursue top-end closers (e.g. Wade Davis, Greg Holland), though the Cards will have obvious competition on that front. Any who track the offseason closely, especially fans of the Cardinals or other clubs in the NL Central, will want to take a full look for some insight into the Redbirds’ upcoming plans.

Cardinals To Name Mike Maddux Pitching Coach

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The Cardinals are set to hire veteran pitching coach Mike Maddux to replace Derek Lilliquist, who was let go after the season, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (on Twitter). Maddux has spent the past two seasons as Dusty Baker’s pitching coach with the Nationals but was not renewed after his two-year contract with the Nationals expired.

Maddux, 56, has been a big league pitching coach dating back to the 2003 season. He spent six seasons in that role with the Brewers (2003-08) before moving on to occupy that position with the Rangers (2009-15) and Nationals (2016-17). The older brother of Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, Mike has developed a reputation as one of baseball’s best pitching minds after a successful 15-year playing career and now another 15 years as a big league pitching coach.

Cardinals Add Jose Oquendo, Willie McGee To Coaching Staff

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The Cardinals have announced some notable coaching-staff changes, with two familiar names slated to don the team’s uniform once more. Jose Oquendo will return to his former job as the third base coach, while McGee will take an as-yet unidentified role on manager Mike Matheny’s staff.

There are clearly some other moving pieces here, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers them all (see here and here). The Cards bumped Mike Shildt from third-base to bench coach. (Last season’s bench coach, David Bell, left for a player development job with the Giants.) The club is still looking for new coaches to handle the organization’s pitching staff.

Oquendo had been a key figure on the MLB staff, but left his post after requiring knee surgery. He had remained with the organization, though, and evidently now feels up to the task once again. Now 54, Oquendo played with the Cardinals for a decade. Primarily a middle infielder, he appeared at literally every position on the field during his career (including catching one frame and pitching six). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak obviously saw it as a priority to get Oquendo back into the team’s staff; as Goold explains, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker went with Matheny recently to engineer Oquendo’s return.

While McGee’s specific duties aren’t yet clear, the indication is that the Cards won’t build silos with the staff. No matter his formal title, the legendarily fleet-footed former big leaguer will “work with outfielders on their defense and all players with their baserunning,” Goold writes. McGee, who spent the bulk of his 18 MLB campaigns in St. Louis, has previously functioned as a special assistant with the organization. Those interested in reading more about McGee’s hiring should read this discussion and interview from the Dispatch’s Rick Hummel.

NL Notes: Callaway, Marlins, Peralta, Hickey

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While the Mets had intended to conduct a second round, the team jumped at the chance to hire Mickey Callaway as manager after his first interview, Marc Carig of Newsday writes. He stressed a need to engage the team’s players as “human beings and individuals,” while GM Sandy Alderson cited a need to establish “rapport [and] empathy.” In other news relating to the hiring situation, Carig also notes (Twitter link) that the club interviewed Mark DeRosa before reaching its decision. The long-time big leaguer currently works for MLB Network; his candidacy had not previously been reported.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Trimming payroll down to a reported $90MM obviously represents a big challenge for the Marlins. The challenge is made all the more difficult, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes, by the state of the team’s rotation. With some paring of veteran assets seemingly all but inevitable, it seems likely that the team will look to bring back some new arms if at all possible. Of course, the organization will surely still be looking to rely on internal options to fill out the staff. A team source had some rather harsh words for two such candidates, telling Jackson that promising youngster Dillon Peters “needs to lose weight” and charging that the struggling Adam Conley fails to accept instruction and “thinks he has all the answers.” Neither of those two southpaws produced appealing results in 2017, though the former drew a ton of groundballs in his first 31 1/3 MLB frames (and was also quite good at Double-A) while the latter had quite a lot of success in the prior two seasons.
  • The Reds’ pitching staff has easily been the worst in baseball over the past two seasons, but there are certainly some useful pieces in place. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon takes a look at one such pitcher, southpaw reliever Wandy Peralta. The 26-year-old was a pleasant surprise in his rookie campaign, working to a 3.76 ERA in 64 2/3 frames with 7.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 to go with a 54.2% groundball rate. Peralta has a diverse slate of pitch offerings — a pair of big fastballs along with a slider and change — that he utilized nearly equally in 2017. Given the number of questions marks among Cincinnati hurlers, hopes are obviously high that Peralta will continue to cement his status as a solid bullpen asset.
  • The pitching coach carousel seems to be a particular area to watch in the coaching ranks this offseason, with Jim Hickey among the notable names on the market. Per MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, via Twitter, the former Rays pitching coach held a chat with the Cubs today. He has also already engaged with the Giants and Cardinals, she notes.

Coaching/Managerial Notes: Nats, Cards, BoSox, Cubs, Tribe

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With the Nationals searching for a manager to replace the ousted Dusty Baker, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post weighs the pros and cons of the position. While Baker’s successor will inherit an elite collection of talent, it’s still going to be difficult for the Nats to find an ideal candidate, Janes opines, considering the high expectations and lack of stability that come with the role. Further, the roster may take a significant hit a year from now with both Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy scheduled to become free agents. General manager Mike Rizzo isn’t signed beyond 2018, either, which means Washington’s next skipper could have a different boss in 2019.

  • Former Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey has already interviewed for jobs with the Cardinals and Red Sox, and he’ll meet with the Cubs on Monday, according to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link). The Cubs are in need of a pitching coach after firing Chris Bosio on Saturday. If Hickey takes over for Bosio, he’ll reunite with Cubs manager and former Rays skipper Joe Maddon, who was Hickey’s boss in Tampa Bay from 2007-14. Hickey and Maddon remain close, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com.
  • Along with Hickey, the Cardinals have identified their Triple-A pitching coach, Bryan Eversgerd, and Royals assistant to the general manager Cal Eldred as potential candidates for their major league opening, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Eversgerd could become the Redbirds’ bullpen coach if he doesn’t end up as their pitching coach, Goold writes. The Cardinals have been on the lookout for pitching and bullpen coaches since letting go of Derek Lilliquist and Blaise Ilsley, respectively, after the season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is looking for “a more modern approach”  than before and plans to hire a pitching coach or coordinator who’s fluent in advanced analytics, Goold relays. Notably, Mozeliak has spoken with former Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter about taking a job, but he’s only interested in a part-time position with the organization, Goold relays.
  • Curt Young is a candidate to succeed soon-to-be Mets manager Mickey Callaway as the Indians’ pitching coach, according to Robert Murray of FanRag. Young, who spent the past six years as the A’s pitching coach, worked under Indians manager Terry Francona when they were in Boston in 2011. The two are still “very good” friends, Murray notes.

Quick Hits: C. Seager, Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is optimistic shortstop Corey Seager will be able to return for the World Series, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com was among those to report (Twitter link). “Corey doesn’t want to be denied,” Roberts said of Seager, who missed the Dodgers’ five-game National League Championship Series triumph over the Cubs with a lower back sprain. Reserve Charlie Culberson provided surprisingly excellent production at shortstop against the Cubs, hitting .455/.417/.818 in 13 plate appearances, but he’s obviously not in Seager’s stratosphere. Seager has opened his career with two superstar-caliber seasons and is arguably the Dodgers’ top position player.

More from around the game:

  • The Cubs’ firing of pitching coach Chris Bosio on Saturday was manager Joe Maddon’s decision, Paul Sullivan and Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune report. Maddon’s relationship with Bosio deteriorated as the season progressed, per Sullivan and Gonzales, who add that Mike Maddux and the previously reported Jim Hickey are candidates to serve as the Cubs’ next pitching coach. Maddux was the Nationals’ pitching coach over the past two years, but his time with the club ended with manager Dusty Baker’s exit. Hickey, meanwhile, is also on the Cardinals’ radar, according to Sullivan and Gonzales.
  • Rangers general manager Jon Daniels will enter a contract year in 2018, but he told Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram and other reporters on Friday that he has “no desire to go anywhere.” Daniels’ hope is to land an extension, though neither he nor members of the Rangers’ ownership group commented on whether a new deal is in the works. The 40-year-old has been in his post since October 2005, making him the second-longest tenured GM in the game behind the Yankees’ Brian Cashman, and has helped construct five playoff teams and two pennant winners (2010 and ’11). The 2017 season wasn’t a success for the Daniels-led Rangers, however, as they finished 78-84. Daniels is still optimistic, though, saying: “This was not a fun year, just the variety of things that we dealt with, but what it illuminated was getting back to the things that are fun. Being creative, finding new ways to compete, finding different competitive advantages, circling the wagons and building with our people.”
  • The Red Sox are an “obvious” fit for Tony La Russa, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe observes. La Russa, who’s set to exit the Diamondbacks’ front office at the end of the month, has a longstanding relationship with Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, Cafardo points out. La Russa spoke glowingly of Boston’s front office leader, telling Cafardo, “There’s nobody in baseball I respect more than Dave Dombrowski.” Both La Russa’s friendship with Dombrowski and his vast experience in baseball could make him a candidate for an advisory role with the Sox. When asked about the possibility, Dombrowski said, “We’ll see.”

NL Notes: Baker, Kelley, Lynn, Bell

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The Nationals sparked some backlash today with the surprising decision not to retain manager Dusty Baker. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was particularly incensed, slamming the organization not only for the substance of the move, but also for leaving Baker dangling in the wind for the past week-and-a-half. Baker tells Nightengale that he’s “surprised and disappointed” after leading the team to two-straight NL East titles but also failing to advance past the NLDS. It’s worth keeping some perspective here: after all, Baker is a highly-compensated professional and this is a results-oriented business. But the move does seem somewhat confusing from the outside and certainly fits the ever-growing record of questionable interactions between ownership and managers in D.C. Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post also examined the risk the club is taking with the switch.

More from the National League:

  • Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley has received a stem-cell injection in his troublesome right elbow, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. The hope is that the treatment, combined with a full offseason of rest, will allow Kelley to return at full health next year. He is not expected to require any surgery at this time. Kelley, who is slated to earn another $5.5MM in the final season of his contract, somehow allowed a dozen home runs in just 26 innings in 2017 while also maintaining a 13.5% swinging-strike rate. Given his history of quality relief work, perhaps there’s still hope that he can contribute once again in 2018.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tackled a host of interesting Cardinals questions in his latest chat, some highlights of which are available here. Of particular note, he says it’s no secret that righty Lance Lynn is going to seek a big contract — something on the order of Jordan Zimmermann’s $110MM guarantee — in free agency. While St. Louis has interest in retaining Lynn, there doesn’t seem to be much chance of it entering that stratosphere to do so. (Whether any other teams will do so seems questionable, too.)
  • Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost bench coach David Bell to the Giants, where he’ll serve as the VP of player development. That could kick off some other changes for these two organizations, both of which are looking to bounce back from postseason misses in 2017 (and a much more serious collapse in the case of San Francisco). Bell had worked in the St. Louis dugout since 2014. The twelve-year MLB veteran spent time with both organizations during his playing career.

An Early Look At The Cardinals’ Search For A Closer

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As the Cardinals made a late push at a postseason spot this year, it seemed the club had finally sorted things out in the ninth inning — and done so for 2018 as well. Trevor Rosenthal, once the team’s lock-down closer, had rediscovered and even improved upon his former form.

The sense of certainty did not lost long. The grim UCL reaper came for the powerful righty in late August, knocking him out for most or all of the 2018 campaign. Whatever hope Rosenthal may have of returning late in the season to come, it likely won’t be sufficient for the team to tender him a contract at the projected rate of $7.9MM.

Seung-hwan Oh had taken over closing duties for Rosenthal when he faltered in 2016, but Oh himself stumbled last year and is in any event now a free agent. Brett Cecil rebounded from an ugly start to his time in St. Louis, especially in the peripherals, but was never really given a look in that role. Tyler Lyons turned in an exciting season but made way for Juan Nicasio, who was acquired despite the fact that he was not eligible for the postseason. And young flamethrower Sandy Alcantara continues to show eye-popping talent, but likely won’t be entrusted with such a key role early in 2018 after exhibiting some walk issues during his first MLB stint last year.

All said, it’s rather clear that the Cardinals will be looking for an outside acquisition to secure late-inning victories. The team’s leadership largely acknowledges as much, as Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Looking around the rest of baseball, it’s hard to identify any other team with such an evident need in the 9th. Among hopeful contenders, there are a few other clubs with potential openings — the Cubs, Twins, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Angels, especially — though some of those organizations may well look to internal options. Other organizations will consider adding high-leverage relievers, even if they already have ninth-inning options penciled in, so there is other competition. But the need for an established closer is more acute in St. Louis than anywhere else.

As the Cards begin mapping out an offseason strategy, here are some of the names they might be weighing:

Free Agents

Despite expressing a general aversion to “pay[ing] retail for closers,” GM Mike Girsch acknowledges a need to “evaluate the brand-name closers in the market.”

  • Wade Davis has emerged as the top target, as he carried a 2.30 ERA through the regular season and has come up big thus far in the postseason. Davis is still pumping mid-nineties heat, even if it isn’t quite at his peak, and set a career high with a 15.4% swinging-strike rate.
  • Greg Holland did not quite hold his edge for the entirety of a bounceback season, though surely his extensive absence also played a role. Holland also drew swings and misses on more than 15% of the pitches he threw despite a more significant velocity drop than Davis has experienced to this point. Though he got he job done for most of the year at altitude, Holland did end with a less-than-dominant 3.61 ERA.
  • Addison Reed stepped into the closer’s role for the Mets before his mid-season trade to the Red Sox and has plenty of high-leverage experience in his career. He has yet to reach 29 years of age and, unlike the prior two names on this list, brings elite control to the table and also set a personal best with a 13.7% swinging-strike rate. There’s certainly a case to be made that Reed represents a more palatable long-term investment and can be trusted to handle the ninth.
  • Juan Nicasio, as noted, ended up taking a surprising route to Cards late in the season. He ended up saving four games in 11 strong innings. Over the course of the year, Nicasio led the National League with 76 appearances and carried a 2.61 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While the converted starter has relatively minimal experience in the late innings, he might represent a more budget-friendly possibility.

There are other free agents with ample late-inning experience, including Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Koji Uehara, and Sergio Romo. Those and others could obviously be considered by the Cards, but likely wouldn’t be added with closing duties in mind.

One-Year Rentals

The Cards will surely also look into trade possibilities. With Alcantara and other good arms on the rise, though, perhaps the focus will be on shoring things up for 2018 rather than securing a longer-term piece (at a much higher price, no doubt).

  • Kelvin Herrera could represent an interesting target. The Royals dealt Davis away last year for a talented player (Jorge Soler) who had fallen out of favor with his contending team. St. Louis has quite a few intriguing assets (Aledmys Diaz, first and foremost) that could fit a similar description. Herrera is just 27 years old but will be entering his final season of arb control at a projected $8.3MM. He’s also coming off of a tepid 2017 season in which he managed only a 4.25 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 while permitting a sudden jump in home runs (1.37 per nine on a 14.5% HR/FB rate). Herrera is still throwing pure heat but did slip to an 11.5% swinging-strike rate. And some late-season forearm issues are a bit concerning from the perspective of an acquiring organization.
  • Zach Britton might also be a one-year bounceback target, though he could be in line for a $12.2MM payday and had some fairly worrying health and performance issues in 2017. Plus, the O’s presently insist they aren’t interested in dealing him. There’s still time for that stance to change, however, and the Cards would be one of many teams that could dream on a revived Britton. Teammate Brad Brach is also a quality late-inning arm and is set to earn just $5.2MM, though as with Britton it remains unclear whether he’ll truly be available at any kind of reasonable price.

Multi-Year Assets

While price tags figure to remain high for sought-after young relievers, there are quite a few interesting names to consider.

  • Brad Hand is earning a reasonable $3.8MM in his second-to-last season of arb control. Though the  Padres’ 27-year-old only just stepped into the closer’s role in the middle of 2017, that change didn’t seem to bother the breakout reliever, who worked to a 2.16 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over a healthy 79 1/3 frames. Hand can work deep and deliver top-line results, though his status as one of the game’s best southpaws will no doubt also lead to broad interest.
  • Raisel Iglesias continues to dominate and is still 27 years old. The Reds hurler will earn $4.5MM this year, as his contract calls for, and will likely opt into arbitration beginning in 2018 — when his salary figures to ramp up quite a bit. Still, with control through 2021, Iglesias has huge value. Plus, he may yet be on the come, as he boosted both his average fastball velo and swinging-strike rate in 2017.
  • Alex Colome will take home a projected $5.5MM from the Rays with two more years of control remaining. It’s still not clear what kind of course Tampa Bay will take this winter; though it seems more likely than not that the team will keep trying to contend, it’s still possible that Colome will be shopped around a bit. The 28-year-old failed to sustain his 2016 breakout, though, tallying a 3.24 ERA with a pedestrian 7.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 66 2/3 innings.
  • Arodys Vizcaino has had plenty of ups and downs for the Braves, who may prefer simply to hold onto him rather than trying to secure what may not be an exciting return. But Vizcaino did manage a 2.83 ERA last year while closing 14 games, so could hold appeal. He is slated to earn something in the realm of $3.7MM and can also be tendered arbitration for 2019, so there’s also somewhat less contractual upside than with some of the other pitchers discussed here — perhaps lowering the ask on Viz. In his favor? A blistering 98 mph heater and career-best 14.7% swinging-strike rate. Beyond questions about his ability to reliably handle closing duties for a full season, we’ll also need to wait to see what course the Braves take once their current front-office mess is resolved.
  • Dellin Betances could be an intriguing buy-low target if the Yankees decide to move on. While he has often been absurdly dominant, Betances showed a concerning loss of the strike zone down the stretch and into the postseason. But his overwhelming stuff and upside are undeniable. With a projected $4.4MM arb salary and another year of control, he’d draw big interest despite the struggles. Of course, there’s also good reason for New York to hold and hope for a rebound, and the risk may be too great for a team like the Cards to trust the ninth to Betances coming out of camp.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has also reported that the Cards have some interest in right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano — the longtime closer for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes. It seems unlikely that a big league club would sign the free agent and immediately hand him the keys to the ninth inning, though if he impresses early in his MLB tenure he could emerge as a closing option, as Oh did in his 2016 debut campaign.

There are a few other young names that could conceivably enter the mix here — most notably Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays, Edwin Diaz of the Mariners, and perhaps the Phillies’ Hector Neris. But all indications are that there’s no significant likelihood of these players being moved; Toronto and Seattle insist they will try again to contend, while the Phils probably won’t have much motivation to part with a pre-arb relief talent as their competitive window begins to re-open.

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