- The Rays have taken plenty of heat for their offseason moves, though Travis Sawchick of Fangraphs observes one common thread among the hitters they’ve let go: a susceptibility to whiffs against four-seam fastballs. Corey Dickerson swung through more four-seamers than anyone in Major League Baseball last season by a wide margin, Sawchik notes, while Steven Souza was third on that list and Logan Morrison tied for seventh. Sawchik also notes that each of the three had declines in the season’s second half (though Morrison maintained above-average production). Replacements such as Carlos Gomez and especially C.J. Cron had fewer struggles against the fastball, he adds. Sawchik has written in the past about how the Tampa Bay organization emphasizes utilizing elevated fastballs as a weapon more than most other clubs, so perhaps that trend applies to both sides of the ball.
Rays Rumors
AL East Notes: Rays, Pedroia, JDM, Lee
Rays owner Stuart Sternberg weighed in on the MLBPA’s grievance against the Rays and three other clubs regarding concerns over the reallocation of revenue-sharing funds, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays, according to Sternberg, are “beyond” compliant with the rules. “We’re very judicious in how we spend our money, but it’s spent in a lot of forms, and payroll is one of them,” said Sternberg, going on to point out that the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2018 will be higher than it was in 2017. Of course, the Rays still rank near the bottom of the league in that regard, as they do every year. Chris Archer, the Rays’ union representative, also spoke with Topkin on the matter. “I have no clue what it costs to run the Dominican academy,” said Archer. “I know just from my perspective, not a whole lot has changed with the spring training facility, not a whole lot has changed at the Trop, and our payroll has not increased significantly.”
- Veteran Red Sox star Dustin Pedroia had a bit more done to his knee than had previous been known, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. In addition to cartilage restoration work, Pedroia underwent a microfracture procedure to his tibia. Regardless, it seems that the hard-nosed veteran is progressing well given that he has now advanced to taking batting practice. Meanwhile, fellow infielder Marco Hernandez is still six weeks away from resuming baseball activities, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. Hernandez underwent shoulder surgery last May and only just had screws removed, but at least he now seems to be in sight of returning to the field.
- In other Red Sox coverage, Bradford discusses new signee J.D. Martinez’s unique relationship with his personal hitting coach. As it turns out, new Boston hitting coach Tim Hyers is well acquainted with Martinez’s guru Robert Van Scoyoc, who’ll be allowed to continue consulting with Martinez even though he has been hired by the Diamondbacks. It’s a deep and interesting look at how Martinez’s unique approach will fit with the organization.
- Orioles hurler Chris Lee will miss at least a month with an oblique injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to tweet. The southpaw had been viewed as one of a variety of hurlers competing for one rotation spot, a long-relief role in the pen, and/or a place in the organizational depth chart. Instead, he’ll have to work back to health before he’s able to begin pressing for his first MLB opportunity. The 25-year-old reached Triple-A for the first time last year, pitching to a 5.11 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 over 116 1/3 innings.
Rays’ Brent Honeywell Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
FEBRUARY 27: Honeywell underwent surgery today, Topkin tweets.
FEBRUARY 23: Rays top pitching prospect Brent Honeywell has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tommy John surgery has been recommended for the promising 22-year-old.
The diagnosis represents a worst-case scenario for the Rays in the wake of yesterday’s ominous arm injury for Honeywell. The early diagnosis was a forearm strain, though that’s often a precursor to a UCL tear upon further testing. Topkin noted yesterday that the injury was of “major concern” to the Rays. Honeywell reportedly threw roughly 10 pitches in a batting practice session before loudly shouting after his final pitch and eventually walking off the mound with a trainer.
The likely loss of Honeywell for the season is a brutal hit to the Rays’ depth. Even though Tampa Bay is hardly lacking for rotation alternatives, Honeywell ranks as not just one of the best pitching prospects in baseball but one of the top overall prospects in the game. Each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN, Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus ranked Honeywell within the top 15 overall prospects on their respective top 100 lists heading into the 2018 season.
Honeywell, the No. 72 overall draft pick in the 2014 draft, enjoyed a terrific season in Triple-A against older competition in 2017, tossing 123 2/3 innings with 11.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 3.64 ERA, a 2.84 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP.
Topkin had previously reported that Honeywell was likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season, as the Rays are prepared to open the year with a four-man rotation of Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Faria and Blake Snell. Matt Andriese will begin the season as a multi-inning reliever, but the extra off-days early in the 2018 schedule mean the Rays won’t need a fifth starter for several weeks. Andriese seems likely to eventually step into that role. Honeywell could’ve been called up early this summer to avoid Super Two status or, at the very least, called up at some point in May once the team had secured another year of club control over the highly touted righty.
That, of course, won’t be the case at all now at any point in the 2018 season. The Rays have alternatives to eventually step into the rotation as needed, though none comes with an upside that matches Honeywell. Nonetheless, the Rays have an enviable stock of young pitching in the upper minors and already on the 40-man roster, led by Anthony Banda, Jose De Leon, Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos.
MLBPA Files Grievance Against Four Teams Over Revenue Sharing Funds
The Major League Baseball Player’s Association has initiated a grievance proceeding against the Athletics, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays regarding those teams’ spending of revenue sharing dollars, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
This general issue has been percolating for some time, even as additional concerns have arisen as to the pace of free-agent signings over the 2017-18 offseason. The MLBPA reportedly engaged with the league office over the Miami and Pittsburgh organizations’ spending earlier this year.
At the time, MLB and the teams at issue rejected the idea that there was any issue worth exploring further. Clearly, the union disagrees and also feels that two other organizations’ practices merit examination. Per Topkin, the complaint relates to spending both last year and over the present offseason.
Revenue-sharing dollars — which will be phased out for the A’s under the current Basic Agreement — are required to be spent for improving the MLB performance of recipient clubs. That doesn’t necessarily mean it all must go to player salaries, but though teams are required to report on how they use the money. And as JJ Cooper of Baseball America notes on Twitter, successive collective bargaining agreements have tightened the permissible uses.
Enforcing the provisions relating to these funds falls in the domain of commissioner Rob Manfred. He can issue penalties, require the submission of a two-year plan, and even order changes with that plan (“after consultation with the Players Association”).
As Topkin notes, it is not immediately clear what the MLBPA is seeking in relief. The collectively bargained provisions do seem to give the union an interest in ensuring the provisions are followed, though, and perhaps the situation is seen as drastic enough to merit a test of their meaning before an arbitrator.
In a statement to the Times, the league confirmed receipt of the grievance but stated that MLB “believe[s] it has no merit.” Pirates president Frank Coonelly responded with a combative tone, issuing a statement labeling the action “patently baseless” (via MLB.com’s Adam Berry, on Twitter). Rays owner Stuart Sternberg defended his own organization in less strident terms (via Topkin, on Twitter).
Rays Negotiating New Television Contract
The Rays are discussing a new long-term television contract with FOX Sports Net that would run through the 2033 season, John Ourand and Daniel Kaplan of Sports Business Journal report. According to Ourand and Kaplan, the contract still has some “hurdles the two sides have to overcome” but could come with an annual payout “around” $82MM per year.
It’s important to note that that’s an average payout and wouldn’t kick in immediately; as is typically the case with newly structured television contracts, annual revenue increases are gradual in nature. Ourand and Kaplan note that the Rays are receiving “close to” $35MM from FOX Sports Sun in 2018, which is the final year of their current contract. The contract presently being negotiated would up that sum to somewhere in the neighborhood of $50MM in 2019, per the report. Yearly revenues would then escalate over the remaining 14 years of the contract.
Obviously, a substantial increase in television revenue for any team is of note. But it’s particularly worth monitoring with regard to the Rays, who were recently under an ownership directive to cut payroll and drew the ire of fans and their own player. Cost-cutting moves that sent Jake Odorizzi to the Twins and Corey Dickerson to the Pirates didn’t bring much in the way of long-term value to the organization.
The Rays also traded longtime face of the franchise Evan Longoria to the Giants in a move that saved them at least $60MM, though in doing so they added a largely MLB-ready infield replacement in the form of Christian Arroyo and also avoided losing leverage with Longoria, who is set to earn 10-and-5 rights (i.e. full no-trade protection) shortly after Opening Day 2018. Steven Souza, too, was traded to the D-backs last week, though that swap brought the Rays more prospect value, and the team quickly signed Carlos Gomez for a sum that was actually slightly greater than Souza’s salary to fill the void.
That the Rays mandated even a moderate level of payroll-slashing with a $50MM BAMTech payout (received by all 30 teams) coming their way this offseason as well as an expected increase of ~$15MM in television revenue next winter won’t do anything to cushion the blow for those who were disheartened by the team’s slate of offseason moves. But television rights, at present, are a decidedly lesser source of revenue for the Rays than much of the league. Paired with some recent promising, albeit preliminary developments in the team’s quest to build a new stadium in the Ybor City neighborhood of Tampa, Rays fans have some reason for cautious optimism when it comes to the team’s long-term payroll outlook. (Or, at least, they have more cause for optimism than they have in quite some time.)
A 15-year deal covering the 2019-33 seasons at an average annual value of roughly $82MM would place the total value of the new television contract at more than $1.2 billion. Certainly, given that the two sides haven’t yet pushed negotiations across the finish line and reportedly still face some “hurdles,” it’s worth keeping in mind that those numbers are not set in stone. Negotiations should continue in March, Ourand and Kaplan report, adding that one complicating factor is 21st Century Fox’s sale of its regional sports network group to Disney — a transaction believed to be valued at a whopping $52.4 billion.
Jose Bautista Interested In Signing With Rays
Although the Rays have picked up a pair of right-handed hitters in Carlos Gomez and C.J. Cron since last weekend, they could add another outfield-capable righty-swinger, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. One free agent who might draw their attention is Jose Bautista, who’s “keenly interested in playing for the Rays, presumably knowing it would be for a low salary,” Topkin writes. The 37-year-old Tampa Bay resident has long been a rival of the Rays, having played with the Blue Jays from 2009-17. While Bautista was a terror for opposing pitchers for the majority of that run, he’s now coming off his worst year in nearly a decade, which helps explain why he remains on the market. Bautista took 686 trips to the plate in 2017 and batted a subpar .203/.308/.366, albeit with 23 home runs.
- The Rays have recently parted with several notable veterans, including Evan Longoria, Steven Souza Jr., Corey Dickerson and Jake Odorizzi, but their front office insists they’re not tanking and never have, as Topkin details in a separate piece. Rather, according to general manager Erik Neander: “This is a season, as things stand now, where on paper we’re somewhere in that middle territory yet again. But what’s been building underneath is getting awfully close to colliding with what’s a middle-of-the-pack team. And when those things come together, you’ve got a chance for something special.” And even though the Rays finished under .500 in each season from 2014-17, Neander believes there was serious progress behind the scenes. “As our teams have been kind of treading water, there’s been that wave that’s really building, really coming together, probably even better than I think we expect it,” Neander said. “It’s about there.”
Neander On Decision To DFA Dickerson
- Rays GM Erik Neander admitted to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that the decision to designate Corey Dickerson for assignment was “very difficult and something he didn’t deserve in that way.” However, the presence of so many corner options on the market were dragging out the Rays’ efforts to trade him, and the DFA served as a means of putting a clock on the process for interested trade parties, which ultimately accelerated the process. “With the market and how many guys were out there, we felt that the best way to try to accomplish something was to put a timer on it and expedite the process,” said Neander.
Pirates Acquire Corey Dickerson From Rays
1:17pm: The Pirates are sending the Rays $1MM as part of the trade, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (Twitter link). In essence, then, they’ll spend an additional $1.45MM to turn Hudson into Dickerson, while the Rays will add a reliever to their ’pen, a prospect to the lower levels of their farm system, and trim $1.45MM from their 2018 payroll.
12:24pm: The Pirates announced that they’ve acquired outfielder Corey Dickerson from the Rays in exchange for reliever Daniel Hudson, minor league infielder Tristan Gray and cash.
Tampa Bay recently designated Dickerson, 28, for assignment in a move that came as a surprise to many. Dickerson posted solid overall numbers in 2017, hitting .282/.325/.490 with 27 homers in 629 trips to the plate. Dickerson, though, faded badly after a strong start to the season.
Though Dickerson hit .326/.369/.570 with 17 homers through the season’s first three months, that production was supported by a .374 BABIP that he didn’t seem especially likely to maintain. That number came back down to earth from July through season’s end as Dickerson’s strikeout rate rose to nearly 29 percent, and he batted just .232/.273/.397 with 10 homers and an 82-to-16 K/BB ratio in the final three months of the season.
That said, Dickerson still has an overall track record as a quality bat, as evidenced by a lifetime .280/.325/.504 slash and 119 OPS+. He’ll earn $5.95MM in 2018 and is controllable for one more year via arbitration before he can reach free agency.
The Pirates desperately needed some outfield help following this offseason’s trade of former face of the franchise Andrew McCutchen, and Dickerson should slot into the organization as the team’s new everyday left fielder. Defensive metrics aren’t exactly bullish on his glovework in the outfield, though he’s graded out as generally average or slightly above-average in left field over the past two seasons after drawing poor marks early in his career with the Rockies. He’ll be joined in the outfield by Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, each of whom is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2017 season.
[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart]
Though Dickerson isn’t likely to recreate the massive performance he rode to his first career All-Star appearance in the first half last season, he should nonetheless serve as an offensive upgrade over the Pirates’ internal options in left field. Adam Frazier and Jordan Luplow were two of the main candidates for that gig on the 40-man roster, while veterans Michael Saunders and Daniel Nava are in camp as non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Certainly, the Dickerson pickup places a significant roadblock to either veteran making the roster, and it’s fair to wonder if they’ll ultimately be allowed to seek other opportunities.
In Hudson, the Rays will pick up a hard-throwing veteran reliever looking for a rebound season of his own. Hudson’s contract calls for him to earn $5.5MM this season, so the two contracts nearly cancel each other out. However, the Pirates are also sending cash to the Rays in the deal, so it appears that Tampa Bay will come out ahead, financially speaking, in the swap.
Hudson, 31 early next month, posted a 4.38 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9 and a 43.3 percent ground-ball rate while averaging 95.6 mph on his fastball through 61 2/3 innings last year. A converted starter that has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career, Hudson has a 4.59 ERA in the ’pen over the past three-plus seasons since making the switch, but secondary metrics have been considerably more optimistic based on his strikeout rates and, outside of last season, his control. In 192 1/3 frames as a reliever, Hudson has a 3.84 FIP and 3.78 SIERA.
Tampa Bay executives Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom recently downplayed the possibility of the Rays trading closer Alex Colome before the season begins, so it seems that Hudson will pair with recently re-signed Sergio Romo to give the Rays another experienced arm in their setup corps.
The addition of that pair of veteran arms will allow the Rays to lean less heavily on what had looked to be a largely inexperienced group of relievers outside of Colome and southpaw Dan Jennings. Andrew Kittredge, Chaz Roe, Austin Pruitt, Ryne Stanek, Jose Alvarado and Chih-Wei Hu wiill be among the names vying for the remaining bullpen spots with the Rays this spring now that Hudson is on board.
[Related: Updated Tampa Bay Rays depth chart]
Gray, meanwhile, was Pittsburgh’s 13th-round pick in last year’s draft and posted a .269/.329/.486 slash with seven homers and five steals in 53 games for the Pirates’ short-season Class-A affiliate last year. The second baseman was an honorable mention on Fangraphs’ list of the Pirates’ Top 25 prospects, with Eric Longenhagen pointing to a long track record of production as an amateur but also labeling his overall offensive profile as “middling.”
All told, it’s a fairly underwhelming return for Dickerson, though that’s largely indicative of the manner in which bat-first corner outfielders have been devalued in the current economic climate of baseball. The Rays surely tried to trade Dickerson for much of the winter but seemingly found no takers before designating him for assignment, and even in this swap it seems that Tampa Bay had to agree to take on some salary to work out a deal. Jay Bruce managed to score a three-year, $39MM pact with a similar, albeit superior overall profile at the plate, but both the trade and free-agent markets for good-not-great corner outfielders have been rather tepid over the past couple of seasons.
It seems plausible that the Rays simply felt they could utilize a full season of Mallex Smith in a corner outfield spot without losing much in the way of overall value, and elected to turn Dickerson into an alternative Major League asset. The surprising trade of Steven Souza that followed Dickerson’s DFA, as the Rays’ front office told it recently, was more or less a function of an unexpected and aggressive pursuit of Souza by the Diamondbacks, who promised a prospect package the Rays felt they could not afford to turn away. The Rays were then able to capitalize on a weak free-agent market and bring in Carlos Gomez at a bargain rate — a move that further reflects the dwindling value of above-average offensive outfielders that aren’t premium defensive assets.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rays’ Top Prospect Brent Honeywell Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, Undergoing Further Tests
Rays top pitching prospect Brent Honeywell exited today’s workout with an arm injury that is of “potential major concern” to the team, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (all Twitter links). Per Topkin, Honeywell threw eight to 10 pitches before cursing loudly and walking off the mound with a trainer. Manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the early diagnosis is a forearm strain, and Honeywell is set to undergo further evaluations.
Honeywell, 22, is considered among the game’s elite minor leaguers, ranking among baseball’s top 20 or so overall prospects on virtually every major publication. The former No. 72 overall draft pick enjoyed a terrific season in Triple-A against older competition in 2017, tossing 123 2/3 innings with 11.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 3.64 ERA, a 2.84 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP.
While most consider Honeywell to be ready for Major League action, or at least very close to MLB readiness, Tampa Bay wasn’t expected to break camp with Honeywell in the rotation. Rather, he figured to open the season in Triple-A — both to finish off his development and also to buy the Rays an additional year of club control by delaying his service clock, as many teams tend to do with their top young talent. The forearm issue could well delay his start to the season and, of course, could be a portent to a more severe injury.
Tampa Bay recently thinned out its rotation mix by trading Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, though they quickly replenished the lost depth by picking up Anthony Banda — another largely MLB-ready young starter — in the Steven Souza trade with the D-backs and Yankees. Any lengthy absence for Honeywell would deprive the organization of its highest-upside minor league arm, but the Rays do possess a considerably deep stock of big-league-ready starters, even if many of them are lacking in Major League experience.
[Related: Tampa Bay Rays depth chart]
The Rays are set to open the season with Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria and Nathan Eovaldi in a four-man rotation, Topkin recently reported, with Matt Andriese beginning the year as a multi-inning reliever and eventually sliding into the fifth spot in the rotation. Looming in the upper minors are Banda, Jose De Leon, Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, each of whom has had a full season of Triple-A work under his belt at this point. Both Yarbrough and Chirinos enjoyed particularly strong years in the rotation for the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate last year, and each of that group is already on the 40-man roster. Righties Jose Mujica and Hunter Wood have less experience and success in the upper levels, but each is on the 40-man roster and could plausibly see MLB time in 2018.
Rays Unlikely To Further Tear Down Roster
The recent string of subtractions by the Rays — Jake Odorizzi, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza have all been moved in the past five days — has fans of other clubs hoping for a full rebuild and, thus, trades of Chris Archer, Alex Colome and/or Kevin Kiermaier. However, Tampa Bay GM Erik Neander and senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom both strongly suggested that such moves are unlikely tonight in separate interviews. (Neander spoke with with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, while Bloom’s chat with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM can be heard on Twitter.)
Tonight’s trade of Souza was a tough one for Rays faithful to absorb, given the amount of payroll that previous moves involving Evan Longoria, Odorizzi and Dickerson had already saved and given Souza’s modest $3.55MM salary. However, Bloom suggested that the trade of Souza had far less to do with cutting payroll than it did with the fact that the D-backs aggressively pursued Souza as a fallback after losing J.D. Martinez to the Red Sox. (Tampa Bay received MLB-ready left-hander Anthony Banda, second base prospect Nick Solak and a pair of players to be named later who, according to ESPN’s Keith Law, are “more than just throw-ins,” though their identities are not yet known.)
“We feel this move, just the way the Diamondbacks came after Steven, that it was something that we couldn’t walk past,” said Bloom before going on to suggest that the Rays may now add some pieces. “And knowing that it does take a chunk out of our lineup, we still feel good about the talent we have on hand. … We want to spend the rest of the spring looking for ways we can support this group, knowing that we’re going to be young, we’re going to be interesting and we want to give this group as much of a chance as possible to succeed.”
Neander had similar sentiments, calling the Souza trade a “pure baseball decision” based on a package “we felt we couldn’t pass up.” Bloom, in his interview, repeatedly speaks about supporting the group of core pieces already on the roster (e.g. Archer, Kiermaier) as well as the emerging wave of talent that is on the cusp of the Majors. (While Bloom doesn’t specify names, the Rays could very well see right-hander Brent Honeywell join a largely homegrown rotation this season and also have position players such as Willy Adames and Jake Bauers on the cusp of the Majors.) To that end, he flatly denied any plans of moving further core pieces.
“As far as Archer and Colome, that’s not our plan,” said Bloom when asked by Bowden about that pair specifically. “…We recognize, again, that we’re in a little bit of a transition phase as we focus on building up that young core, but we don’t want to ignore that we have a pretty dynamic group.” Neander’s message was the same.
“I would say extremely unlikely,” said the GM when asked about further tearing down the club (via Topkin). “Our focus at this point is we’d like to add a little bit. We’re not looking to pull this thing back.”
Neander went on to state that there’s “work to do” when it comes to finding a replacement from Souza, which seems likely to come from outside the organization. As Topkin points out, the Rays currently project to have an all-left-handed-hitting outfield of Denard Span, Kiermaier and Mallex Smith. Generally speaking, the team has a fairly obvious need for right-handed offense after trading Longoria and Souza and, thus far, adding only C.J. Cron as a right-handed bat this offseason.
As always, there are multiple avenues for the Rays to explore when determining how to address that need. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with options, though Carlos Gomez remains available and is still capable of holding down a regular role in the outfield. A roll of the dice on a veteran like Jose Bautista may not excite many fans, though it’d come at a minimal cost given his recent struggles. The trade market would present further options, with Milwaukee’s Domingo Santana standing out as a particularly logical name to pursue given Milwaukee’s outfield surplus and desire for controllable starters. (To be clear, all of those names are merely speculative to this point.)
More broadly, while neither Neander nor Bloom proclaimed themselves definitive contenders for the division, both expressed a belief that the Rays, with some (presumably modestly priced) additions around the periphery of the roster can be a largely competitive unit in 2018. Bloom acknowledged that the Rays aren’t yet among the “upper-echelon” teams in the American League but voiced a desire to get there and optimism about being able to do so with a number of the young pieces that’re already in the organization.
“With respect to the quality of our pitching and the quality of our defense, we’re going to be competitive,” Neander added.
