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Tanner Roark

Athletics Acquire Tanner Roark

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The Athletics have struck a deal to acquire righty Tanner Roark plus cash from the Reds, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Outfielder Jameson Hannah is headed to Cincinnati in return, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that the Reds will pick up $2.1MM of Roark’s remaining salary, which looks to be a bit more than $3MM.  The trade is now official.  As is commonplace, Roark learned of the trade in an Arby’s parking lot.

Roark is earning $10MM this year before hitting free agency at season’s end. He was a clear trade candidate for a Cincinnati organization that is largely looking ahead to the 2020 campaign. The club’s recent acquisition of Trevor Bauer, combined with the recent return of Alex Wood, left a bit of a rotation overload even with Tyler Mahle hitting the injured list.

The Athletics have scrambled all season long to keep their own rotation afloat. Anticipated arrivals of a variety of injured, younger hurlers just haven’t happened yet. With the club competing hard for a Wild Card slot — if not a late dash for the division — there was a clear need for more starters, even after the prior acquisition of Homer Bailey (who has struggled in Oakland).

Roark, who’s closing in on his 33rd birthday, has taken a step back after a strong opening to the season. He’s now sitting on a 4.24 ERA through 110 1/3 innings on the year, with 8.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9, and 36.7% groundball rate in 110 1/3 innings.  Roark, a 25th round pick by the Rangers in 2008, joined the Nationals in 2010 as part of the Cristian Guzman trade.  He greatly exceeded expectations with the Nationals, logging 935 innings of 3.59 ball across six seasons.  2016 was a particular high point, as Roark finished 10th in the NL Cy Young voting.  The Reds picked him up in a December trade.

Soon to turn 22, Hannah was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft. He has been playing at the High-A level, where he carries a .284/.341/.381 batting line in 414 plate appearances. It seems his power will need to come around a bit, but he’s regarded as possessing a quality hit tool with an advanced approach.  Prior to the season, Baseball America considered Hannah a 50 grade prospect, citing a “sweet left-handed swing paired with plus athleticism and double-plus speed.”  BA sees Hannah as a strong defensive center fielder and likely big leaguer, making him a nice score for two months of Roark.  It appears the Reds were able to pick up most of the tab on Roark’s salary and extract a better prospect as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Rumors: Garrett, Roark, Yankees

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The Reds had been clinging to the hope of buying this deadline season, but their recent skid could turn them into sellers prior to Wednesday. Now at 46-55, the National League’s third-worst record, the Reds sit a lofty 7 1/2 games out of wild-card position. We already know the club is willing to entertain offers for Raisel Iglesias as a result of its pre-deadline slide. Cincinnati also has at least a couple other pitchers generating interest in reliever Amir Garrett and starter Tanner Roark, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links).

“Many teams covet” the 27-year-old Garrett, Heyman writes, but the Reds are in the same boat. They’re actually more likely to trade Iglesias than Garrett, per Heyman. Garrett’s playing this season for a minimal salary and will do the same again in 2020 before potentially taking three trips through the arbitration process. Not only does Garrett bring four-plus years of team control to the table, but the left-hander has seemingly broken out this season.

Garrett fell flat as a starter in 2017, his rookie campaign, before faring far better as a reliever a year ago. The switch from the Reds’ rotation to their bullpen has led to a significant velocity increase for Garrett, who has averaged 95 mph on his fastball after clocking in just below 92 in his previous role.

During his debut as a reliever in 2018, Garrett registered a 4.29 ERA/3.89 FIP with 10.14 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 38 percent groundball rate in 63 innings. That’s useful production, but Garrett has found another gear in 2019. Across 39 frames, he has pitched to a 1.85 ERA/3.09 FIP, and though his walk rate has soared to 5.08 per nine, Garrett’s strikeout and grounder marks have skyrocketed with it. Garrett has fanned 13-plus per nine and induced worm burners at a 53.8 percent clip. He has also stymied same- and opposite-handed hitters alike, evidenced by the .260 weighted on-base average lefties have managed off him and the .285 wOBA righties have put up. They’ve combined for a .274 wOBA, but Statcast’s xwOBA metric (.256) suggests Garrett has been even more dominant.

It’s no surprise the Reds want to keep Garrett, but there’s a strong argument it would make sense to trade Roark – a pending free agent who’s not a qualifying offer candidate. Along with the previously reported Phillies, the Yankees “have checked in on” Roark, according to Heyman. As Heyman notes, that may have been due diligence on the part of a Yankees team searching high and low for starting help.

Regardless of whether it’s the Yankees or someone else, it’s unlikely Cincinnati would have trouble finding a team for Roark. He is making a somewhat expensive $10MM salary, but Roark has justified the price tag this season. Since joining the Reds in a trade last winter, the 32-year-old ex-National has notched a 3.95 ERA/4.15 FIP with 8.92 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9 in 107 innings. There isn’t much difference between Roark’s bottom-line production in 2019 and the output that enabled him to total four seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR over the prior half-decade. He’s already at 1.8 in that category this year.

Phillies Showing Interest In Tanner Roark

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The Phillies are showing some interest in Reds righty Tanner Roark, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It sounds as if a few other organizations are also looking into the veteran starter, whose trade availability is not really clear.

It wasn’t long ago that the Reds were putting out word that they intended to function as a buyer at the trade deadline. But the club’s position is increasingly grim, with eight games and three teams separating it from the NL Central lead.

If the Cincinnati organization does decide to sell a few players, Roark would be one of the clear pieces to move. He’s among the pending free agents who’d be of interest to contenders. Other rental candidates include Alex Wood, David Hernandez, Jared Hughes, Yasiel Puig, Scooter Gennett, and Jose Iglesias.

As for the Phillies, we’ve continued to see them connected to most of the available arms. The club is obviously looking far and wide for possible arms to buttress its rotation and pen. While the preference remains to acquire with control, as Heyman notes and the front office has made clear, there’s surely also room for rental pieces at the right price.

[RELATED: Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark]

Roark has been as solid as the Reds could have hoped for when they acquired him from the Nationals over the winter. He’s through 107 innings of 3.95 ERA pitching over twenty starts, with 8.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In terms of peripherals and pitch quality, it has been much of the same sturdy work that Roark has provided over the past several campaigns. He’s hardly an ace, but is about as dependable as any back-of-the-rotation starter and would surely represent a nice upgrade for the right contender.

Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark

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Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.

Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.

The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.

An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.

Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.

Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.

Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs.  Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).

Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL West Rumors: Lynn, Roark, Giants, Cervelli, Dodgers, Reds, Greinke, Padres

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A busy day of pitching transactions included Tanner Roark being traded from the Nationals to the Reds, and free agent Lance Lynn nearing an apparent agreement with the Rangers.  Those moves take two potential Giants targets off the board, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported that San Francisco had interest in its own Roark deal, while The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly noted that the Giants had interest in Lynn before his reported price tag (three years and $30MM from Texas) rose too high for their liking.  The Giants are known to be exploring reinforcements for a rotation that has still has Madison Bumgarner as the ace, but a lot of inexperience and question marks in the rest of the starting five.

Some more from around the NL West…

  • The Dodgers have been in touch with the Pirates about catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports.  Coming off a solid 2018 season, Cervelli has received trade interest from several teams.  The 32-year-old is only under contract through 2019 (at $11.5MM in salary), so that type of short-term fit could appeal to a Dodgers team that has top catching prospects Keibert Ruiz and Will D. Smith getting closer to cracking the MLB roster.  In addition to starters like Cervelli, Gurnick notes that L.A. is also looking at “fallback options” like veteran catcher Nick Hundley.
  • The Dodgers have been heavily linked to the Reds in trade talks, and while Yasiel Puig has prominently featured in these rumors, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links) hears that Puig hasn’t been involved in one of the latest proposals.  This version of a deal would see Matt Kemp and Alex Wood go to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, which would shave roughly $13MM off of the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll calculations since Kemp’s contract has a higher average annual value than Bailey’s deal.  Given Bailey’s struggles and injury problems over the last few seasons, one would imagine L.A. might pursue something more substantial back (i.e. a prospect or two) rather than pure salary relief, though it’s worth noting that the Dodgers acquired Kemp last offseason in a deal that certainly appeared at the time to be simply a bad contract swap.  Clearing some luxury tax room would likely also allow the Dodgers to make another big-ticket addition.
  • Zack Greinke might not be dealt until the trade deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, as the Diamondbacks feel they could get more for the ace right-hander in July than they could now, with so many other starters available on the market.  Those other pitchers also don’t come with Greinke’s hefty $95.5MM contract attached, making it difficult for the D’Backs to find a trade partner at the moment.
  • With the Padres hunting for a utility infielder, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) suggests a few options with ties to the organization.  The Rangers’ Jurickson Profar or the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed would make sense as trade targets, as GM A.J. Preller is very familiar with Profar from their time together with the Rangers, and Ahmed was a “favorite” of manager Andy Green when Green was on Arizona’s coaching staff.  Veteran free agent Daniel Descalso could also be a fit.

Reds Acquire Tanner Roark

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The Reds have announced the acquisition of veteran righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals. Reliever Tanner Rainey goes to Washington in the swap.

There have been indications over recent months that the Nats were inclined to move on from Roark, who projects to earn $9.8MM in his final trip through arbitration. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the D.C. organization has its eyes on another upgrade to its staff, with an obvious need for one or two additional rotation pieces.

Meanwhile, Roark will help to shore up a Cincinnati starting unit that the club has long targeted for improvement. The 32-year-old has thrown at least 180 frames in each of the past three seasons, even if the results haven’t always been there. Adding him to the staff likely won’t take the Reds out of the market for starters, though the club surely values the lack of a long-term commitment given the price for open-market pitching we’re seeing so far this winter.

Roark has, to be sure, turned in some eye-popping earned run averages over full seasons, but it’s tough to see him as much of an upside play. He has only once topped a ten percent swinging-strike rate, during his otherwise poor 2017 season, and has consistently graded out as a low-4 ERA type hurler in the eyes of ERA estimators.

That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Roark’s profile — there is. But it seems likelier that the Reds should anticipate a quality, durable rotation piece than the front-line starter Roark produced like in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, in which he spun 2.85 and 2.83 ERAs, respectively, in ~200-frame samples. The varying highs and lows over the years have seemingly correlated more with variations in opponents’ batting averages on balls in play than with significant differences in the underlying quality of Roark’s work on the mound.

If there’s an area of concern, it could be in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. Roark has never had particularly pressing issues with the long ball, but he has coughed up quite a few more in his lesser seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) than in his good ones. And after turning in approximately 48% groundball rates over the prior three years, Roark dropped to 40.7% in 2018 even as his flyball rate rose to 37.6% after sitting at or below 32% in that same three-year span.

As for the other Tanner R. in this swap, the 25-year-old Rainey is perhaps a more intriguing asset than his forgettable MLB debut effort would suggest. He scuffled badly in an eight-appearance showing last year, but did show a blazing fastball that touched 100 and averaged out at a healthy 98.3 mph.

Promising, Rainey also produced 52 innings of 2.60 ERA ball at the Triple-A level in 2018. Of course, that comes with a massive caveat: he also surrendered more than six free passes per nine innings, continuing his longstanding control difficulties. The Nats have taken some other notable risks on high-octane, command-challenged hurlers this winter. It seems likely that Rainey will open his time with the organization at Triple-A, unless he shows a major spark or a clear need arises during camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Rumors: Santana, Rockies, Reds, Puig, Ender, Rangers, Mets, Nats

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Mariners first baseman Carlos Santana is drawing a fair amount of interest just over a week into his tenure with Seattle. The Rays, Indians, Rockies and Marlins have all reached out to the Mariners regarding the 32-year-old switch-hitter, per reports from Corey Brock of The Athletic and colleague Ken Rosenthal. The Indians and Marlins jump out as particularly interesting clubs on the four-team list. Santana played in Cleveland from 2010-17, but the team wasn’t willing to match the Phillies’ three-year, $60MM winning bid for the then-free agent last offseason. He now has $40MM left on that deal, which looks high for an Indians team trying to reduce payroll and get younger this winter. The Marlins certainly aren’t big spenders, meanwhile, and unlike the Indians, they don’t figure to contend during the two remaining years of Santana’s contract. In any case, it seems like a solid bet that the rebuilding, payroll-slashing Mariners will flip Santana, whom they acquired largely to help balance out money in a swap with Philly that was headlined by pricey shortstop Jean Segura.

  • Along with Santana, the first base-needy Rockies have interest in the Indians’ Edwin Encarnacion, the White Sox’s Jose Abreu and the Padres’ Wil Myers, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets.
  • The Dodgers and Reds have had “multiple” trade discussions involving outfielder Yasiel Puig and other players, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Puig’s “in play,” as are other Dodgers outfielders and some of their pitchers, per Rosenthal, who notes that they’d like to clear payroll in order to make room for other potential acquisitions. Interestingly, Rosenthal reports there’s a possibility of the Dodgers taking on Reds righty Homer Bailey’s $28MM to essentially buy prospects from Cincinnati. Bailey would count $17.5MM against the competitive balance tax, making his money easier to deal with for LA than his salary. But there’s no trade close as of now, Rosenthal adds.
  • More on the Reds, who have expressed interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. However, no trade is imminent, and it’s not clear what the Braves asked for in return, Sheldon writes. Inciarte would be an upgrade over ex-Red Billy Hamilton, whom they non-tendered last month. For the Braves, trading Inciarte would free up center field for Ronald Acuna Jr. Although, as a 28-year-old with up to four affordable seasons left on his contract, it would likely take a significant return for Atlanta to move Inciarte.
  • The Rangers have engaged in trade discussions with both the Braves and Mets, TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Unsurprisingly, pitching-starved Texas is seeking young and controllable arms, according to Sullivan, who notes that the Braves and Mets are looking for outfield help. However, New York’s seeking a right-handed outfielder, as Sullivan points out, and the Rangers’ most notable outfielders (Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo) are lefty-swingers.
  • The Nationals are reportedly willing to trade righty Tanner Roark, whom general manager Mike Rizzo spoke about Tuesday. Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters that the Nationals will only move Roark if they add another starter first. As of now, there’s nothing imminent, Zuckerman relays.

Player Rumors: Realmuto, Gonzalez, Roark

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The Marlins are downplaying rumors of a potential 3-team swap that would send catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Mets, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). The Yankees would also be included in this hypothetical blockbuster, but the Marlins aren’t lending much credence to the idea. They do plan to move Realmuto, it seems, and with only three teams reportedly in the mix, the Marlins could be narrowing in on the market. Still, the rumor mill shifts every few moments when it comes to Realmuto, and it would seem prudent to temper expectations of a deal until word comes from Marlins camp directly. Elsewhere in player rumors…

  • First baseman Adrian Gonzalez hopes to continue his playing career in 2019, and he’s improved his conditioning to do so, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). It’s an unforgiving market for inflexible corner infield types, however, and Gonzalez has not seen a lot of traction since he last saw the playing field with the Mets early in 2018. Still, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets the Diamondbacks could have interest in signing the veteran bat. Gonzalez, 36, has played for the Rangers, Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers and Mets across a long and storied career, but his opportunity to see significant playing time would seem to have passed. The Diamondbacks are a curious fit, if only because Gonzalez is unlikely to develop into much of a trade chip, given the current market interest, and playing time at first base is likely committed to restoring the value of Jake Lamb, a much higher-upside potential asset. Still, adding Gonzalez as a clubhouse veteran and lefty bat off the bench isn’t wholly unreasonable for a transitioning team like Arizona, especially given the exodus of so many veteran leaders. Speculatively speaking, Gonzalez could fit the mold of a been-there, seen-that veteran leader the Cubs are reportedly seeking, and their recent trade of Tommy La Stella did open a roster spot that’s been held by a lefty bat used more-or-less exclusively as a pinch-hitter. At this stage of his career, however, with his slugging numbers cratering in his last two campaigns, Gonzalez is unlikely to be a primary target anywhere, and he may have to earn a spot on a major league team as a non-roster invitee. 
  • Tanner Roark’s name is being floated in trade circles as someone the Nationals would be willing to surrender, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). This jives with earlier reports that the Nationals continue to seek rotation reinforcements, even after the signing of Patrick Corbin. Roark, 32, has been a steady rotation presence for the past three seasons, though he has yet to recapture the magic of a 2016 that saw him post a 16-10 record with a 2.83 ERA over 210 innings. The last two seasons seem more in line with expectations moving forward, as Roark has averaged 30 starts, 181 innings, and a 4.50 ERA (4.20 FIP) over that span. His 2019 salary is projected around $9.8MM, making him a relatively affordable one-year option as he enters his last year of arbitration, though depending on the assets being asked in return, a free agent flyer, in the ilk of Tyson Ross’s recent $5.75MM deal with Detroit, may be just as (if not more) attractive to teams looking to fill out the back end of their rotation. For the Nationals, it’s a little surprising to see them shopping Roark given their lack of established depth in the upper levels of the minors. It’s not surprising that they’d want to upgrade the rotation behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Corbin, but to do so at the cost of Roark feels unnecessarily Sisyphean. After dealing Jefry Rodriguez to the Indians in the Yan Gomes deal, top in-house rotation candidates beyond Roark include Joe Ross, 25, Erick Fedde, 25, and Kyle McGowin, 27 – none of whom would necessarily be considered “established” rotation pieces.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Roark, Braves

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The Phillies are hiring away Astros minor league field coordinator Josh Bonifay as their new farm director, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link). The 40-year-old Bonifay is the son of former Pirates general manager Cam Bonifay (1993-2001) and has spent nearly a decade working as a manager or coach in the Astros’ system with the exception of a 2017 stint as the Rangers’ minor league field coordinator. The Phillies parted ways with previous farm director Joe Jordan and several minor league hitting coaches in September, and Bonifay will be tasked with helping to implement a systemic change in the manner in which data is presented to minor league coaching staffs.

Here’s more from the NL East…

  • Tanner Roark heads into a contract season with the Nationals in severe need of a rebound campaign, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. As Zuckerman explores, Roark has now posted an ERA north of 4.30 in three of the past four seasons, making what previously looked like outlier campaigns perhaps the new norm. There’s no mention of a possible non-tender or trade in Zuckerman’s piece, though it’s fair to wonder if the Nationals will feel comfortable committing a hefty salary to the 32-year-old Roark given his run of largely pedestrian results; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs him for a $9.8MM payday in 2019 — his final season of arbitration eligibility. While the Nats have a clear need for starters behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Roark is becoming a relatively pricey option, although to his credit, he’s been a durable rotation cog (30+ starts in three straight seasons).
  • Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution looks at the Braves’ need for some help atop the rotation and the means by which they could acquire said help, though he notes that recent comments by GM Alex Anthopoulos caution against the possibility of an expensive splash. “If there’s a deal that makes sense for us, and it’s a good asset to have, we’ll do it,” said Anthopoulos. “I think the one where you scratch and really push, and you want to call it overpay in years or dollars, you feel like that’s the one final piece. … I don’t think we’re there yet right now.” Atlanta does have plenty of intriguing arms in the upper minors, some of whom have already debuted in the Majors. It’s possible that a few prominent contributors could yet emerge from within or that those pieces could be packaged for some high-end, cost-controlled help. A free-agent splash for someone like Patrick Corbin, however, seems decidedly less likely.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

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