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Free Agent Notes: Keuchel, Cards, Hudson, Nationals, Jays, Porcello, Rondon, Moose, Treinen

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The Cardinals haven’t checked in on Dallas Keuchel since initially showing interest in the veteran lefty near the start of the offseason, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (subscription required).  While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said told Saxon and other reporters that his team has been focused mostly on pitching during the Winter Meetings, “the Cardinals have chosen instead to slow-play their hand,” Saxon writes, perhaps to the chagrin of agents trying to get St. Louis involved in the fast-moving pitching market.  “For us, we’re OK being patient,” Mozeliak said of a rotation that currently consists of Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and the club’s biggest winter addition to date, the re-signed Adam Wainwright.  This decent group and multiple fifth-starter candidates on hand give the Cardinals the comfort in waiting until later in the offseason to add pitchers once asking prices from both free agents and trade partners could begin to drop.

More from the free agent market….

  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman) that he had begun talks with Daniel Hudson’s agent about a possible return to the World Series champs.  After being acquired in a trade deadline deal from the Blue Jays, Hudson had a huge role in stabilizing Washington’s season-long bullpen problems, posting a 1.44 ERA over 25 regular season innings and then a 3.72 ERA over 9 2/3 frames in the playoffs as the Nats’ closer.  This great showing down the stretch has Hudson asking for a multi-year deal in free agency, Zuckerman hears from a source, though Zuckerman isn’t sure the Nationals will make such a commitment to a pitcher whose overall performance over the last few years is far more inconsistent.  MLBTR did predict a multi-year contract for Hudson (two years, $12MM) while ranking him 28th on our list of the winter’s 50 best free agents.
  • In terms of other pitching needs, Rizzo expressed confidence in internal arms.  The general manager feels relievers Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland will be better than 2020 due to improved health, and Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Erick Fedde will seemingly provide all the competition necessary for the fifth starter’s job.  “I think we’re more than satisfied with our rotation,” Rizzo said, and with good cause, considering the Nationals’ starting four of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, and the re-signed Stephen Strasburg.
  • With multiple pitchers flying off the board, the rotation-needy Blue Jays “began to engage more aggressively with” Tanner Roark, Josh Lindblom, and Rick Porcello over the last two days, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  The result was one miss as Lindblom signed with the Brewers, one success in the form of a two-year, $24MM deal with Roark, and one result to be determined as Porcello continues to weigh his options.  Toronto is also looking towards relief pitchers, as Davidi reports that Hector Rondon has received some interest.
  • Davidi’s piece also contains some interesting details on two other Blue Jays targets who signed elsewhere.  The Jays met with Blake Treinen’s agent prior to Treinen’s one-year, $10MM pact with the Dodgers.  Perhaps more surprisingly, it seems the Blue Jays put significant effort into a pursuit of Mike Moustakas, as GM Ross Atkins and manager Charlie Montoyo both visited Moustakas at his home.  Toronto wasn’t known to be an ardent suitor for Moustakas, though his left-handed power bat and multi-positional infield ability would have made him a quality upgrade for the Jays’ lineup.  Moustakas wound up surpassing all expectations by landing four years and $64MM in a deal with the Reds.

Pitcher Rumors: Cole, LA, Porcello, Roark, Reds, Brewers, Jays, Fish

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The latest on several pitchers…

  • The Yankees won the bidding for right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, when the two sides agreed to a history-making deal worth $324MM over nine years. But the runners-up, the Angels and Dodgers, made mighty competitive offers in their own right. Both clubs were willing to go to eight years, with the Dodgers’ bid at exactly $300MM and the Angels’ just below that line, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Both teams’ offers included deferrals, whereas the Yankees’ didn’t.
  • Free-agent righty-hander Rick Porcello has a three-year offer in hand, but he’s more inclined to accept a one-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. By taking a short-term pact, Porcello would be betting on himself and pinning his hopes on bouncing back next year after a tough 2019. In possibly his last season as a member of the Red Sox, the former AL Cy Young winner struggled to a below-average 5.52 ERA/4.76 FIP, though the durable 30-year-old did pile up at least 170 innings (174 1/3) for the 10th time in his career.
  • Righty Tanner Roark came off the market Wednesday when he reached a two-year, $24MM agreement with Toronto, but a couple NL Central teams were also in the race for him. The Reds, with whom Roark spent the first half of 2019, and the Brewers pursued him, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far this offseason, Cincinnati hasn’t yet added to an already formidable rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. On the other hand, the Brewers made a low-risk, possibly high-reward signing Wednesday in grabbing former KBO star Josh Lindblom.
  • Speaking of Lindblom, the Blue Jays put a “significant” offer on the table for him before he headed to Milwaukee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.  The details of that proposal aren’t known. Lindblom would up agreeing to a three-year deal worth $9.125MM.
  • The Marlins are drawing some interest in righty Jose Urena, Craig Mish of MLB Network reports on Twitter. The Blue Jays are said to be one of the clubs to have called on the hard-throwing 28-year-old, who’s under arbitration control for two more seasons. Fellow Marlins starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez have also gotten clubs’ attention, as upward of half the league’s teams have inquired about them, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. However, Frisaro writes that it’s “extremely unlikely” the Marlins will trade anyone from that trio.

Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

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Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.

Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Roark, Gibson, Gausman

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Free agent left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu “is emerging as one of the Blue Jays’ prime targets” in the team’s wide-ranging search for pitching, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  With other major pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler already off the board, however, the Jays will face a lot of competition to land Ryu, particularly from teams that come up short on signing Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner.  Should the Dodgers fail to sign Cole, Davidi notes, Los Angeles would seem like a prime candidate to pursue re-signing a known quantity in Ryu — indeed, we’ve already heard reports that the Dodgers have Ryu in their sights.

“Right now, the Blue Jays seem determined to not block themselves out of a possible run at Ryu by doing something else,” Davidi writes in a separate piece.  Aside from the acquisition of Chase Anderson from the Brewers, however, the Jays haven’t done much to upgrade a rotation that was the team’s chief offseason priority.  It could be that the Jays’ deliberate methods of pursuing and evaluating every possible arm on the market are leaving them behind other teams who make a more direct push for a specific pitcher at the top of their list.  In the view of one agent, talks with the Blue Jays “are 90 per cent due diligence that doesn’t go anywhere.”

To this end, Davidi wonders if the Jays are really willing to spend “outside their comfort zone” to sign Ryu if he is their top choice, since if not, missing out on Ryu could also in Toronto missing out on several other pitchers who could sign elsewhere in the interim.  For instance, Davidi notes that “one path the Blue Jays are particularly keen on” would see Ryu and Tanner Roark both sign with the Jays, after the Dodgers leave the Ryu sweepstakes due to a Cole signing.  If this is the case, I’d argue there’s no reason the Jays couldn’t go out of their way to sign Roark now, as he wouldn’t require nearly the price tag of the top pitchers on the free agent market.  (MLBTR projected Roark for a two-year, $18MM deal, and in fact predicted he’d end up signing with the Jays.)  Toronto is nowhere near any kind of payroll crunch, given the team’s lack of financial commitments both in 2020 and in future seasons.

That said, the Blue Jays have done more than just talk, as the club made multiple contract offers to Kyle Gibson, as manager Charlie Montoyo told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters.  The right-hander ended up going to the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal.  “You hate to lose guys like Gibson.  I was there when we made the offers and they were pretty good offers, just somebody else made a better offer,” Montoyo said.

Kevin Gausman is another free agent hurler who doesn’t appear to be coming to Toronto.  Davidi reports that the Jays had interest in the recently non-tendered righty, but Gausman is likely going to sign elsewhere this week.

East Rumors: Jays, Yanks, Andujar, Mets, Thor

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The Blue Jays had interest in right-hander Jake Odorizzi before he came off the market by accepting the Twins’ qualifying offer Thursday. Now that Odorizzi’s out of the picture for Toronto, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet lists several free-agent starters who remain on the team’s radar. They have some level of interest in Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Tanner Roark, Michael Pineda, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Dallas Keuchel, according to Davidi. Of course, some of those names are more realistic than others for the rebuilding Blue Jays, whose inability to pry Odorizzi from Minnesota “shows their restraint from previous winters remains strong and steady,” Davidi argues. On the other hand, though, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet has heard from multiple agents who, in discussing their clients with the Jays early this offseason, “have noticed a change in tone compared to years past.” One thing appears certain: The team’s casting a wide net as it seeks much-needed rotation help.

  • Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar was an offensive standout as a rookie in 2018, but a shoulder injury dragged down his production this year and ended his season in mid-May. However, according to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, Andujar’s adverse 2019 hasn’t diminished teams’ enthusiasm for the 24-year-old. “I’m definitely getting a lot of interest in Miguel Andujar,” Cashman revealed to Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York (audio link). That doesn’t mean the Yankees will trade Andujar, though the defensively challenged slugger has at least temporarily lost his hold on third. Cashman suggested Gio Urshela, who posted an out-of-nowhere breakout season as Andujar’s replacement, is the favorite to continue as the Yankees’ top option at the hot corner. With that in mind, the Yankees are at least considering trying to make Andujar a multi-positional player – someone who can also line up at first and/or in the outfield. Whether or not that comes to fruition, Cashman continues to regard Andujar as “an exciting young talent.”
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said at the beginning of October that the club’s not going to trade right-hander Noah Syndergaard this offseason. A month and a half later, Van Wagenen hasn’t changed his mind. Teams have called about Syndergaard, but Van Wagenen has rebuffed them, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. The Mets, if they plan to contend in 2020, don’t seem to be in position to trade Syndergaard. After all, they’re already likely to lose one of their best starters in Zack Wheeler. And Syndergaard’s projected to make an affordable salary ($9.9MM) next year, which is crucial for a New York team that appears to lack financial flexibility.
  • Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier has been popular in trade speculation for years, though the club has held on to him despite a logjam in the grass. Could the Yankees finally part with Frazier this winter? Ken Davidoff of the New York Post discusses Frazier’s trade value with multiple anonymous executives, who unsurprisingly opine that the 25-year-old’s appeal has dipped somewhat. Defense has been a problem for Frazier, who spent a good portion of 2019 in the minors working to improve in that area. He did, however, collect a career-high 246 MLB plate appearances in 2019 and bat an adequate .267/.317/.489 with 12 home runs. Cashman admitted Frazier “took a step backwards” in 2019, though the exec’s encouraged that Frazier has “already proven he can play in New York.”

A’s Rumors: Treinen, Profar, Pending FAs

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We’ve seen quite a bit of news on the Athletics since their season ended with Wednesday’s wild-card loss to the Rays. Here’s even more on the A’s, courtesy of Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (links here):

  • It’s “likely” the Athletics will non-tender or trade right-handed reliever Blake Treinen, according to Slusser, who also names second baseman Jurickson Profar as someone who’s in danger of winding up on the outs. Just a year ago at this time, Treinen was coming off perhaps one of the greatest seasons a reliever has ever posted. It would have unthinkable then that the A’s would be considering cutting the cord on him 12 months later, but it’s now understandable in light of his rough 2019. Injuries limited Treinen to 58 2/3 innings, and his numbers declined across the board when he was able to take the mound. Treinen recorded a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP with 9.05 K/9 and 5.68 BB/9 before his season ended in mid-September because of a stress reaction in his back. Although Treinen lost his job as the A’s closer this year, the saves he has amassed will help him in the arbitration process, where he’d be in line to collect a raise over the $6.4MM he earned in 2019. But the low-budget A’s could simply choose to walk away from the 31-year-old after his nightmarish campaign.
  • Profar, like Treinen, entered the season as a player the A’s were counting on to successfully fill a big role. After acquiring the switch-hitter from the Rangers last winter, Oakland gave Profar ample opportunity to build on a career-best 2018 this season. Instead, Profar stumbled to an uninspiring .218/.301/.410 batting line in 518 plate appearances and earned negative grades at the keystone (minus-10 DRS, minus-1 UZR). The 26-year-old, who made $3.6MM in ’19, has one more season of arbitration eligibility remaining.
  • The Athletics may have too many starters lined up for 2020 to justify re-signing pending free-agent left-hander Brett Anderson. The same likely goes for fellow soon-to-be FA starters Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark, Slusser suggests. The A’s acquired both righties over the summer, and the team ended up receiving surprisingly decent production from Bailey after years of struggles with multiple franchises. The 33-year-old Bailey, who told Slusser he “really enjoyed” his stint as an Athletic, pitched to a 4.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 across 73 1/3 innings in their uniform. Roark managed similar numbers in his 55 frames as a member of the club, with which he notched a 4.58 ERA and put up 8.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.
  • Lefty reliever Jake Diekman, yet another in-season trade pickup, could also depart in the next several weeks. However, the A’s at least figure to discuss retaining him, Slusser relays. He has a $5.75MM mutual option (or a $500K buyout) for next season. Diekman struggled mightily with his control as an Athletic this year, though, as he issued 16 walks, allowed 16 hits and yielded 10 earned runs in a 20 1/3-inning sample.
  • This was a stunningly poor season for designated hitter Khris Davis, whom the team signed to a two-year, $33.5MM extension in April. At that point, Davis was coming off three consecutive 40-home run seasons and a remarkable four straight in which he batted .247. Both streaks came to an end this year, in which Davis hit .220/.293/.387 with 23 HRs in 533 trips to the plate as he dealt with injuries. But Davis “wasn’t injured at the end of the year,” said manager Bob Melvin, who expects a bounce-back performance from the slugger in 2020. Executive vice president Billy Beane shares Melvin’s optimism, saying he looks for a return to Davis’ “annual 40 homers, .247” next year.

Athletics Acquire Tanner Roark

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The Athletics have struck a deal to acquire righty Tanner Roark plus cash from the Reds, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Outfielder Jameson Hannah is headed to Cincinnati in return, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that the Reds will pick up $2.1MM of Roark’s remaining salary, which looks to be a bit more than $3MM.  The trade is now official.  As is commonplace, Roark learned of the trade in an Arby’s parking lot.

Roark is earning $10MM this year before hitting free agency at season’s end. He was a clear trade candidate for a Cincinnati organization that is largely looking ahead to the 2020 campaign. The club’s recent acquisition of Trevor Bauer, combined with the recent return of Alex Wood, left a bit of a rotation overload even with Tyler Mahle hitting the injured list.

The Athletics have scrambled all season long to keep their own rotation afloat. Anticipated arrivals of a variety of injured, younger hurlers just haven’t happened yet. With the club competing hard for a Wild Card slot — if not a late dash for the division — there was a clear need for more starters, even after the prior acquisition of Homer Bailey (who has struggled in Oakland).

Roark, who’s closing in on his 33rd birthday, has taken a step back after a strong opening to the season. He’s now sitting on a 4.24 ERA through 110 1/3 innings on the year, with 8.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9, and 36.7% groundball rate in 110 1/3 innings.  Roark, a 25th round pick by the Rangers in 2008, joined the Nationals in 2010 as part of the Cristian Guzman trade.  He greatly exceeded expectations with the Nationals, logging 935 innings of 3.59 ball across six seasons.  2016 was a particular high point, as Roark finished 10th in the NL Cy Young voting.  The Reds picked him up in a December trade.

Soon to turn 22, Hannah was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft. He has been playing at the High-A level, where he carries a .284/.341/.381 batting line in 414 plate appearances. It seems his power will need to come around a bit, but he’s regarded as possessing a quality hit tool with an advanced approach.  Prior to the season, Baseball America considered Hannah a 50 grade prospect, citing a “sweet left-handed swing paired with plus athleticism and double-plus speed.”  BA sees Hannah as a strong defensive center fielder and likely big leaguer, making him a nice score for two months of Roark.  It appears the Reds were able to pick up most of the tab on Roark’s salary and extract a better prospect as a result.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Rumors: Garrett, Roark, Yankees

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The Reds had been clinging to the hope of buying this deadline season, but their recent skid could turn them into sellers prior to Wednesday. Now at 46-55, the National League’s third-worst record, the Reds sit a lofty 7 1/2 games out of wild-card position. We already know the club is willing to entertain offers for Raisel Iglesias as a result of its pre-deadline slide. Cincinnati also has at least a couple other pitchers generating interest in reliever Amir Garrett and starter Tanner Roark, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links).

“Many teams covet” the 27-year-old Garrett, Heyman writes, but the Reds are in the same boat. They’re actually more likely to trade Iglesias than Garrett, per Heyman. Garrett’s playing this season for a minimal salary and will do the same again in 2020 before potentially taking three trips through the arbitration process. Not only does Garrett bring four-plus years of team control to the table, but the left-hander has seemingly broken out this season.

Garrett fell flat as a starter in 2017, his rookie campaign, before faring far better as a reliever a year ago. The switch from the Reds’ rotation to their bullpen has led to a significant velocity increase for Garrett, who has averaged 95 mph on his fastball after clocking in just below 92 in his previous role.

During his debut as a reliever in 2018, Garrett registered a 4.29 ERA/3.89 FIP with 10.14 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 38 percent groundball rate in 63 innings. That’s useful production, but Garrett has found another gear in 2019. Across 39 frames, he has pitched to a 1.85 ERA/3.09 FIP, and though his walk rate has soared to 5.08 per nine, Garrett’s strikeout and grounder marks have skyrocketed with it. Garrett has fanned 13-plus per nine and induced worm burners at a 53.8 percent clip. He has also stymied same- and opposite-handed hitters alike, evidenced by the .260 weighted on-base average lefties have managed off him and the .285 wOBA righties have put up. They’ve combined for a .274 wOBA, but Statcast’s xwOBA metric (.256) suggests Garrett has been even more dominant.

It’s no surprise the Reds want to keep Garrett, but there’s a strong argument it would make sense to trade Roark – a pending free agent who’s not a qualifying offer candidate. Along with the previously reported Phillies, the Yankees “have checked in on” Roark, according to Heyman. As Heyman notes, that may have been due diligence on the part of a Yankees team searching high and low for starting help.

Regardless of whether it’s the Yankees or someone else, it’s unlikely Cincinnati would have trouble finding a team for Roark. He is making a somewhat expensive $10MM salary, but Roark has justified the price tag this season. Since joining the Reds in a trade last winter, the 32-year-old ex-National has notched a 3.95 ERA/4.15 FIP with 8.92 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9 in 107 innings. There isn’t much difference between Roark’s bottom-line production in 2019 and the output that enabled him to total four seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR over the prior half-decade. He’s already at 1.8 in that category this year.

Phillies Showing Interest In Tanner Roark

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The Phillies are showing some interest in Reds righty Tanner Roark, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It sounds as if a few other organizations are also looking into the veteran starter, whose trade availability is not really clear.

It wasn’t long ago that the Reds were putting out word that they intended to function as a buyer at the trade deadline. But the club’s position is increasingly grim, with eight games and three teams separating it from the NL Central lead.

If the Cincinnati organization does decide to sell a few players, Roark would be one of the clear pieces to move. He’s among the pending free agents who’d be of interest to contenders. Other rental candidates include Alex Wood, David Hernandez, Jared Hughes, Yasiel Puig, Scooter Gennett, and Jose Iglesias.

As for the Phillies, we’ve continued to see them connected to most of the available arms. The club is obviously looking far and wide for possible arms to buttress its rotation and pen. While the preference remains to acquire with control, as Heyman notes and the front office has made clear, there’s surely also room for rental pieces at the right price.

[RELATED: Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark]

Roark has been as solid as the Reds could have hoped for when they acquired him from the Nationals over the winter. He’s through 107 innings of 3.95 ERA pitching over twenty starts, with 8.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In terms of peripherals and pitch quality, it has been much of the same sturdy work that Roark has provided over the past several campaigns. He’s hardly an ace, but is about as dependable as any back-of-the-rotation starter and would surely represent a nice upgrade for the right contender.

Trade Candidate: Tanner Roark

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Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler will garner most of the headlines when it comes to rental starters who could move by the July 31 trade deadline. But for teams that aren’t able to win the bidding for either of them, Reds righty Tanner Roark is seemingly shaping up as a decent consolation price. That is, if the Reds – just 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot despite being five games under .500 – decide to sell Roark. Even if they keep the 32-year-old through the season, he’ll land on several teams’ radars in free agency during the winter.

Roark has been a mostly solid starting option since his career began in 2013 with the Nationals. He made 141 starts in D.C. from 2013-18, during which he posted a 3.61 ERA/3.94 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 2.55 BB/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate. Although Roark was a quality complement to front-end starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in recent years, the Nationals moved on from him last offseason in favor of new acquisitions Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez.

The Reds, seeking to revamp their rotation and make a playoff push in 2019, sent reliever Tanner Rainey to the Nationals for a year of control over Roark. Since then, Roark has held up his end of the bargain for a Cincinnati team whose rotation has indeed taken enormous steps ahead this season. Roark has pitched to a 3.51 ERA/3.86 FIP in 92 1/3 innings and 17 starts, putting him on the cusp of his fourth consecutive season with at least 2.0 fWAR.

An increase in strikeouts has played an important role in Roark’s above-average run prevention in 2019. While he has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, Roark has impressively fanned just under a batter per inning this year. At the same time, he has walked a bit fewer than three per nine, giving him a 3.07 K/BB ratio which sits well above the league mean of 2.65.

Even though Roark has transferred to a home park which is more conducive to HRs, he hasn’t felt the sting thus far. Roark’s groundball percentage has decreased 5 percent since last year and sits at a paltry 35.7 percent, yet his home run-to-fly ball rate has actually dropped a little since 2018 (from 11.7 to 10.8). That has enabled Roark to manage decent numbers at home and on the road. It helps that Roark has generated more infield fly balls, aka automatic outs. At 12.9 percent, he ranks 14th among starters in that category.

Roark has also experienced somewhat of an uptick in velocity since last year. He’s still not going to blow anyone away with his average fastball (92.3 mph), slider (86.2), changeup (84.3) and curveball (76.1), but each pitch has risen around 1 mph compared to 2018. Roark has also mixed those pitches differently than he did a year ago. His sinker’s still his primary offering, but usage of it has plummeted 10 percent, per Statcast, which indicates Roark has turned to his slider about 10 percent more and his fastball at a 5 percent greater rate. According to FanGraphs’ linear weights, Roark’s fastball has been one of the best among starters in 2019.

Now for the bad news: FanGraphs shows the rest of Roark’s offerings all rate in the negatives this year. Although Roark has stifled righty batters, he flat-out hasn’t had an answer for lefties, who have slashed .290/.388/.531 against him. In essence, Roark has turned the typical lefty into Rafael Devers in 2019, in part because he’s yielding more damaging contact than he did in prior years. Roark’s hard-hit rate against is up more than 11 percent relative to his career, while he has surrendered soft contact about 4 percent less, according to FanGraphs.  Statcast doesn’t provide any hope in that regard either, noting Roark ranks in the league’s 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage. He’s also far below average in terms of expected batting average (28th percentile), exit velocity (29th), expected weighted on-base average (34th) and expected slugging percentage (39th).

Teams with interest in Roark are no doubt aware of his blemishes, though those issues shouldn’t deter the Reds from finding a taker for him if they try to before the deadline. Roark’s near the top of the league when it comes to curve spin rate (80th percentile), so he could land with an organization which encourages him to utilize that pitch more. Regardless, for clubs that aren’t in position to win bidding wars for more hyped trade candidates such as Bumgarner, Wheeler, Matthew Boyd and Marcus Stroman, among others, Roark will hold appeal. Whether he finishes the season in Cincinnati or elsewhere, Roark will continue attempting to make a case for a raise over his $10MM salary as he prepares for an upcoming trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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