- Blue Jays right-hander Rafael Dolis will miss at least a week of action after having his appendix removed (MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson was among those to report the news). Dolis will be re-evaluated after that first week, and it is possible the righty might not be ready for Opening Day. After last pitching in the majors in 2013, Dolis revived his career with four impressive seasons in Japan, and signed a one-year, Major League contract with Toronto this winter.
Blue Jays Rumors
8 AL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years
In case you missed previous installments in this series, we looked at AL West hitters and pitchers seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. We’ll now turn our attention to the AL East and eight notable position players looking for better things this year…
Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:
Benintendi, then a premier prospect, made his debut in 2016. He has been fairly valuable since then, especially in 2018 (.290/.366/.465, 4.4 fWAR), but his production took a tumble last season. Despite a 10 percent jump in hard-hit rate (via FanGraphs), Benintendi managed a so-so .266/.343/.431 line with 13 homers and 10 steals in 615 plate appearances. A 6 percent spike in strikeout rate and a 4 percent jump in swinging-strike rate certainly didn’t help matters. Of course, Benintendi logged similar bottom-line production in 2017, so maybe this is just who he is. But the Red Sox are surely hoping for production along the lines of 2018 (or better than that), especially considering their offense has lost former centerpiece Mookie Betts.
Mike Zunino, C, Rays:
After an up-and-down tenure with the Mariners, the former No. 3 overall pick joined the Rays in a headline-grabbing trade in November 2018. But Year 1 as a Ray couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for Zunino, who batted a miserable .165/.232/.312 with nine home runs and a typically high strikeout percentage (33.9) over 289 plate appearances. Zunino did put up more encouraging Statcast numbers (.271 expected weighted on-base average, compared to a .235 real wOBA), but he didn’t exactly stand out in that regard. If there’s a saving grace, it’s that Zunino performed well behind the plate, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base thieves and finishing near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. Considering his defensive abilities, Zunino doesn’t have to thrive at the plate to provide value to his team, but he does have to be a lot better than he was last season.
Joey Wendle, INF/OF, Rays:
Wendle’s terrific first season with the Rays in 2018 seemed to fly under the radar, but he wasn’t able to build on it last year. With a .231/.293/.340 line over 263 PA, his OPS plummeted more than 150 points, while his hard-hit percentage fell 5 percent, per FanGraphs. In fairness to Wendle, though, his season got off to a terrible start because of injuries. He suffered a strained left hamstring and a broken right wrist in April.
Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Rays:
Following an offseason trade, Martinez is a Ray now after he spent the first four seasons of his MLB career in St. Louis. Martinez was typically an outstanding hitter with defensive defects as a Cardinal, but his effectiveness at the plate waned to a significant degree last season. In his final campaign with the Cards, the 31-year-old recorded a .269/.340/.410 line – good for a league-average wRC+ of 101 (down from 127 in ’18) – across 373 PA. Compared to the previous season, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and strikeout percentage each made noticeable changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the Rays are banking on Martinez’s strong track record winning out in 2020.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, Yankees:
Stanton’s on this list for injury – not performance – reasons. The former NL MVP continued to handle opposing pitchers last year (.288/.403/.492), but he took just 72 trips to the plate on account of various injuries. If healthy, there’s not much doubt Stanton will hit in 2020. Problem is that he’s dealing with yet another injury – a Grade 1 right calf strain – that could shelve him for the start of the season.
Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees:
Andujar joined Stanton as one of the many Yankees whom injuries cut down in 2019. Shoulder troubles held the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to 12 games in his sophomore season, during which Gio Urshela usurped his starting job at third base. The 25-year-old Andujar now figures to see time at third, first, outfield and DH, but considering his limitations as a fielder, his value will be tied to his bat. If Andujar can return to being the type of offensive player he was two years ago, when he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits in 606 PA, it’ll be a boon for the Yankees.
Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Blue Jays:
Shaw combined for 7.1 fWAR with the Brewers from 2017-18, but they non-tendered him after last season, leading him to take a one-year, $4MM offer from the Blue Jays. Despite his recent success, it was understandable that the Brewers bailed on Shaw, who endured an abysmal 2019. A 30-home run hitter in his two best campaigns, the 29-year-old totaled only seven in 270 PA last season and batted .157/.281/.270. He struck out 33 percent of the time along the way, representing nearly a 15 percent increase from the previous year, and saw his ISO drop more than 100 points. If you’re looking for at least a couple reasons for hope, Statcast indicates that the average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage Shaw recorded in 2019 weren’t much different than in previous years.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays showed their faith in Grichuk when they extended him on a four-year, $47MM guarantee last April, but they received little bang for their buck in 2019. Although he did mash 31 homers, Grichuk concluded with a below-average .232/.280/.457 line in 628 PA. At this point, it’s probably fair to expect inconsistency from the OBP-challenged Grichuk, who has thrice been a two- to three-WAR player but has also put up a couple disappointing seasons (including last year) since he debuted in 2014.
Camp Battles: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter
The Blue Jays finally made some rotation investments this winter. Most of the money went to Hyun-jin Ryu, but Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson (the latter acquired via trade) each also enjoy sizable guarantees that lock them into the starting staff. With a $4.2MM arbitration deal, Matt Shoemaker is also slated for a rotation spot.
So what of all the arms the Jays have been accumulating of late? The club has loaded its roster with options. They’re now engaged in a sort of battle royale in camp, all striving to impress the Toronto brain trust. The fifth rotation spot is certainly the top prize to be claimed. But the bullpen mix is anything but settled, offering additional paths to the majors. And the Jays will also be lining up their depth chart in the upper minors. 40-man roster pressures could force the club to drop a few players, so the competitors face downside scenarios as well.
Here’s the slate of candidates …
- Trent Thornton: The 26-year-old held down a rotation spot last year, ultimately throwing 154 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA ball in his debut campaign. He entered camp as the odds-on favorite and is probably the sturdiest candidate with a solid-but-not-exceptional minor-league track record, varied pitch mix, and full season of durable MLB work on his resume.
- Shun Yamaguchi: The long-time Japanese star will be on the MLB roster in some manner after signing a two-year deal. He was a highly effective starter in Nippon Professional Baseball just last year, but also has spent a lot of time working at the back of a bullpen.
- Anthony Kay: The well-regarded lefty had a nice showing at Triple-A last year after coming over via mid-season trade and was rewarded with a late-season promotion. His full 2019 totals from the upper minors — 133 2/3 innings, 2.96 ERA, 9.1 K/9 vs. 3.8 BB/9 — suggest that Kay is just about ready for a full big-league audition.
- Jacob Waguespack: Yet another recent acquisition who got his first shot in the majors last year with the Jays, Waguespack had to be pleased with his initial showing (4.38 ERA, 63:29 K/BB in 78 innings). His deep pitch mix and general track record present a profile roughly similar to that of Thornton.
- T.J. Zeuch: Yep, Zeuch also just saw his first MLB action last year, though he’s a homegrown product and only threw 22 2/3 frames in the majors. The sinkerballer spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he worked to a 3.69 ERA in 78 frames while generating a 57.1% groundball rate but just 4.5 K/9. Zeuch did show that he can get some swings and misses (9.9%) in the majors, it’s fair to note.
- Sean Reid-Foley: The former second-round draft pick has struck out 10.1 batters per nine in his minor-league career. Unfortunately, he has never really sorted out his walk issues, having dished out 86 free passes in 120 2/3 total innings last year. Reid-Foley spent most of 2019 at Triple-A, where he coughed up 6.47 earned runs per nine over 89 frames.
- Ryan Borucki: Still just 25 years of age, Borucki had a nice 2018 big-league debut. But after 17 starts of 3.87 ERA ball in his rookie campaign, the southpaw stumbled through an injury-limited 2019 season. Borucki surely would’ve been given every chance to make a run at a rotation job in camp but has unfortunately been halted by ongoing elbow issues. He’ll need to get healthy to put himself back on the map.
- Wilmer Font: Font is something of a grizzled journeyman already at 29 years of age. He has already appeared with seven MLB clubs, including five in the past two seasons. Font started 14 games last year for the Jays but threw only 39 1/3 innings in his 23 total appearances in Toronto. While he has plenty of experience in the minors as a true starter, Font likely factors as a possible opener or spot start candidate rather than a true competitor for the fifth rotation opening.
- Yennsy Diaz: Diaz was rewarded with one MLB appearance last year after a strong season at Double-A (144 1/3 innings, 3.74 ERA, 7.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9). The 23-year-old would need to wow in camp. He’s likelier to continue developing in the minors.
- Tom Hatch, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Julian Merryweather: These four righties all hold 40-man roster spots and have yet to debut in the majors. The first three haven’t yet reached Triple-A, while Merryweather is coming off of an injury riddled 2019 season.
- Nate Pearson: Soon enough. Other non-roster players in camp include MLB veterans Phillippe Aumont and A.J. Cole, though neither seems likely to have a realistic shot at a rotation job out of the gates.
MLBTR Poll: Vlad Jr.’s Second Season
Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. debuted in the major leagues to great fanfare in 2019. The son of a Hall of Famer, Guerrero earned his first promotion toward the end of April – only one month after his 20th birthday. He joined the Blue Jays despite limited experience in Triple-A Buffalo, where he garnered just 162 plate appearances from 2018-19. The sample size may have been small, but Guerrero nonetheless ran roughshod over the highest level of the minors, thereby convincing the Blue Jays he was ready for prime time.
Thanks in part to his stellar production at lower levels, Guerrero was considered an all-world prospect at the time of his promotion. Indeed, four different outlets (Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus) ranked him as the game’s premier farmhand at the time. Guerrero ultimately didn’t make an enormous impact as a rookie, hitting .272/.339/.433 with 15 home runs in 514 trips to the plate, but that production’s still nothing to scoff at for a first-year man who was among the youngest players in the league last season.
Set to turn 21 on March 16, Guerrero figures to be one of the sport’s most fascinating sophomores in 2020, and the revamped Jays are no doubt hoping he’ll help key a resurgence for the club. For what it’s worth, the big-bodied Guerrero has come to camp in better shape this spring, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet wrote last month. The slimmer Guerrero’s now aiming to increase his launch angle, Andrew Stoeten of The Athletic recently relayed.
Guerrero’s mean launch angle checked in at just 6.7 degrees last year, while his expected weighted on-base average (.330, compared to a .329 real wOBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage all hung around the league’s 50th percentile, per Statcast. However, heading into Year 2, projection systems are bullish. ZiPS, for instance, calls for a .285/.349/.497 line (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 571 trips to the plate. Those aren’t superstar-level numbers, but they would represent a nice step forward for such a young hitter.
All that said, let’s hear from you on how you expect Vlad Jr. to perform at the plate this season. Where will his OPS land? How many homers will he hit? (Poll links for app users)
Blue Jays Focused On “Development” Of Nate Pearson
It’s never wise to get too excited over a few spring outings. But already hyped Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson has been awfully impressive, racking up six strikeouts in three hitless innings while pumping triple-digit heat. Suppose he keeps this up?
Toronto GM Ross Atkins faced the question today: is there any chance that Pearson shows so much that he cracks the Opening Day roster? As Arden Zwelling of the Sportsnet.ca tweets, Atkins didn’t exactly offer a direct answer to that question … though his words certainly suggested that the club is not likely to deviate from its pre-spring plan.
Per Atkins, the Jays “are entirely focused on [Pearson’s] development. And a big part of his development is ensuring he has ever chance to increase that workload in a logical and smart way.”
That’s a nod to the fact that Pearson, one of the game’s very best pitching prospects, has still not thrown more than 101 2/3 innings in a professional campaign owing to an injury-busted 2018 season. And he only made it to Triple-A for three starts.
The Atkins comment may be oblique, but it seems there’s only one reasonable interpretation. If Pearson still requires “development” and a planned-out workload expansion, he’s not going to be considered for an Opening Day gig. As Zwelling wrote recently, the original plan was for Pearson to open at Triple-A. Nothing about what Atkins said today suggests any other outcome.
We have seen teams take differing approaches to situations such as this. Quite a few organizations have declined to change their plans even after watching a breakout Spring Training from a top prospect, resisting the allure in favor of service-time and other considerations. See, e.g., the Cubs and Kris Bryant. But that’s not an inevitable outcome. Last season, the Padres decided to carry Fernando Tatis Jr. north out of camp. Seven years ago, the dearly departed Jose Fernandez forced the Marlins’ hands.
In this case, fans that pine for a bold decision from the Blue Jays front office are almost certain to be disappointed — at least in the short run. The Jays did make some long-awaited rotation additions over the winter, so it’s not as if there’s a glaring hole in the staff at the moment. If circumstances warrant, it stands to reason that Pearson could push into the MLB picture later this year. In the meantime, Toronto fans will have to hope that the patience pays off — all while enjoying some of the other intriguing young players on the roster.
Tom Koehler Retires
Right-hander Tom Koehler, in camp with the Pirates as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, announced his retirement from baseball on Instagram this morning. The 33-year-old Koehler says he’s looking forward to “starting [his] next chapter in the game,” whenever and whatever that may hold. For now, it seems as though he’ll take some time with his family.
From 2013-16, Koehler was a solid and durable constant at the back of the Marlins’ rotation, averaging 30 starts per season while pitching to a 4.14 ERA with averages of 6.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 1.0 home runs per nine innings pitched. He struggled early in the 2017 season and found himself traded to the Blue Jays, with whom he posted an intriguing 15-game relief stint (2.65 ERA, 18-to-6 K/BB ratio in 17 innings). That showing prompted the Dodgers to take a look at Koehler in the offseason with the hope that he could transform his career as a late-inning bullpen piece.
Instead, Koehler was beset by shoulder injuries in 2018. After spending more than half the season trying to rehab an anterior capsule strain and make his Dodgers debut, Koehler underwent surgery that ended his 2018 season. He never threw a pitch at the MLB level for the Dodgers. He signed with the Pirates both last offseason and earlier this winter but wasn’t able to get back onto the hill.
It’s a tough way to end a playing career, although as an 18th-round senior sign back in 2008, Koehler exceeded any and all expectations. The Stony Brook alum pitched in 161 Major League games, totaling 784 1/3 innings of 4.39 ERA ball along the way. Koehler’s 36-55 record is more an indictment on the sub-par Marlins rosters surrounding him for much of his career than on his own abilities on the mound. He was generally a serviceable option, twice leading the club in games started and once leading them in innings pitched. Koehler was never a household name but pitched into his arbitration years, helping him to secure more than $12MM in total salary. Best wishes to Koehler in whatever path he next pursues.
Blue Jays Planning For Biggio To Be Second Baseman
- Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoya says Cavan Biggio is the Blue Jays second baseman. Still, given how spring training takes shape, Biggio will be keeping his outfielder glove within reach. The particularly contingency to track, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (via Twitter), is Joe Panik. Outside of those two, it’s not a deep field of second base contenders. Santiago Espinal, 25, hit .317/.360/.433 in his first taste of Triple-A in 2019, certainly showing enough to get a look this spring. Brandon Drury and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also have experience at the keystone. Gurriel is ticketed as the everyday starter in left field, which is a position of equal or greater need for the Blue Jays unless something clicks for a youngster like Billy McKinney or Forrest Wall. Travis Shaw, theoretically, could also see time at second base, but he’s more likely to get his at-bats at first, third, or the designated hitter spot. Ruben Tejada, 30, and Kevin Smith, 23, are also both in camp as non-roster invitees.
Collin McHugh Cleared To Begin Throwing
10:06PM: The Blue Jays are one of the teams with some interest in McHugh, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell (Twitter link) reports that the right-hander “has been discussed internally” within Toronto’s front office.
11:03AM: Free-agent righty Collin McHugh has recently been cleared to begin a throwing program after undergoing a (non-surgical) tenex procedure on his right elbow, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. A wide range of clubs have recently checked in on his status.
The latest update on McHugh — and really the first of the offseason — indicates that he’s a ways behind pitchers who are currently in camp, so he’s not likely to be plugged into a team’s pitching staff from the outset of the season. McHugh missed about a third of the 2019 season due to ongoing discomfort in his right elbow and didn’t look like himself when he was healthy enough to take the mound. In 74 2/3 innings of work, he was hammered for a 4.70 ERA and a 4.43 FIP with 9.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9 and a 38 percent grounder rate. The 32-year-old’s average fastball sat at 92.1 mph in 2018 but dipped to 90.8 mph in 2019. His swinging-strike rate, opponents’ exit velocity and opponents’ hard-hit rate all went in the wrong direction.
That said, McHugh was lights out in a bullpen setting in 2018, spinning a pristine 1.99 ERA through 72 1/3 innings with averages of 11.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.75 HR/9. And from 2014-17, McHugh was a quality rotation piece in Houston: 606 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 8.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. He was one of the first spin-rate darlings in MLB, as the huge spin on his curve is reportedly what prompted the ’Stros to pluck him out of the Rockies organization via a 2013 waiver claim.
It’d be easy to make the case for how McHugh could help virtually any club in baseball. The price tag on him shouldn’t be too high at this point — if he requires a big league deal at all — so it’ll be more a question of where McHugh feels comfortable and feels he’s presented with the best opportunity. That could mean signing on with a rebuilding club that’ll give him rotation innings or suiting up for a win-now club with fewer innings to offer but greater promise of a return to the postseason. Those preferences will be for McHugh and agent Mike Moye to sort out, but interest in the right-hander should be robust now that he’s able to get on a throwing program and give prospective new teams a clearer timeline for his return.
Mark Shapiro On Blue Jays’ Outlook
Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro discussed the state of his organization with Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic (subscription link). You’ll obviously want to read the full transcript for all the details, but we’ll cover a few key points here.
One of the more interesting observations from Shapiro relates to the hot stove more broadly. The precise course of the market every winter is never a given. If you went back and replayed the offseason you’d likely end up with quite different results.
Shapiro spoke of the Blue Jays’ surprise at the early free agent market development, saying that “some of the signs that happened were pretty far outside what our expectations were.” That forced the club to “adjust to what the market’s doing and still keep our values, but look at measuring what the level of inflation is, and then adjust our values for that inflation.”
One wonders whether the opposite has been true for various teams in the prior two offseasons, which were notably quiet for free agents. It remains quite the curiosity that we saw such a marked dive in spending activity for two-straight years before the market suddenly perked back up this time around.
Certainly, the Jays could’ve just shrugged and decided not to keep pace in the market bidding. Instead, it re-worked its expectations and kept after the best remaining players, ultimately walking away with quality southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu. But stretching to land Ryu doesn’t necessarily mean the front office anticipates a postseason surge.
In terms of timing and expectation, Shapiro walked a line and avoided setting firm expectations. On the one hand, he says that upper management has “started to listen to our young players and just the power of their belief in each other … and the belief in their potential.” That’s part of the reason the club pushed for improvements this winter. At the same time, the team’s top executive isn’t setting runaway dreams. He didn’t want to cap the possibilities but also said that “.500 would be a big step forward in wins.”
So … what happens if the team does surprise and puts itself in contention in 2020? Adding more to the roster “would be spending outside of our budget, for sure,” says Shapiro — an evident nod to the fact that the club has plotted out some lower-spending years after ramping down from a 2016-18 cost inflection. But he also said that he’s “confident that we’ll get the support” from ownership when the time is right. The club is obviously dedicating attention and funds to broader building efforts; Shapiro spoke at length about the improved Dunedin facilities that he believes will help “lead to wins” in a multitude of subtle ways over the long haul.
In discussing the eventual need to ramp up the dedication of assets to the current MLB roster, Shapiro made another observation of broader interest. As he put it: “Usually, the dollars you spend at the trade deadline are not too significant because it’s part-season, partial season of salary.” It’s obviously also important that such investments are made with much greater knowledge of team need and likelihood of postseason qualification. Based upon Shapiro’s characterization, Jays fans can justifiably expect the club to push the pedal down when the young talent comes into its own and the competitive situation warrants further supplementation.
Blue Jays To Sign Marc Rzepczynski
The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran left-hander Marc Rzepczynski, manager Charlie Montoyo revealed when meeting with reporters Monday morning (Twitter link via Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling). Rzepczynski still needs to complete his physical, but once he does, the JBA Sports client will head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.
Rzepczynski, 34, didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2019 — the first time since 2008 that he didn’t pitch at least 10 innings in a big league season. Instead, the southpaw spent the year with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate, where he pitched to a 5.04 ERA with 36 strikeouts against 28 walks in 44 innings of relief. Suffice it to say, the 2019 campaign wasn’t one of the southpaw’s best.
That said, Rzepczynski has a generally solid track record at the big league level. He’s compiled a 3.89 ERA and near-identical 3.88 FIP in 434 2/3 MLB frames — including a quality run from 2011-17 that saw him log a 3.61 earned run average (3.59 FIP) in 299 1/3 innings. It’s been two years since his last effective campaign at the MLB level, but there’s little harm in taking a speculative spring look to see a rebound appears possible.
Major League Baseball’s recent rule changes — the three-batter minimum for pitches, specifically — won’t do any favors for the man perhaps more commonly known as “Scrabble.” Rzepczynski has generally been used in a specialized left-on-left role throughout his career. Lefty hitters have mustered only a dismal .227/.296/.305 slash against him in 857 trips to the plate, but righties have had far less difficulty, as evidenced by a .280/.385/.437 output in 1035 plate appearances.
