Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson Re-Aggravates Groin Injury
3:37pm: Pearson is doing “better,” according to manager Charlie Montoyo, but it’s “unlikely” he’ll be ready for the start of the season (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet).
10:38am: Right-hander Nate Pearson suffered a “mild re-aggravation” of his strained right groin during a bullpen session on Tuesday, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told reporters (including Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi). Pearson will be monitored over the next few days, though considering that the young righty has missed almost all of March with the injury, it seems likely that Pearson will need to begin the season on the injured list while he heals and gets properly ramped up to pitch.
Pearson suffered a Grade 1 groin strain on March 1, during his first Grapefruit League outing. The injury wasn’t considered too serious, and Pearson’s recovery appeared to be going smoothly — for instance, he came out of another bullpen session last Saturday with no issues. However, the 24-year-old will now probably be facing a delay in the start of his first full Major League season.
One of the game’s most highly-touted young pitchers, Pearson made his MLB debut last season and posted a 6.00 ERA over 18 innings in the regular season, plus two scoreless frames during the Jays’ wild card series with the Rays. Pearson also spent a month on the IL due to elbow tightness.
Despite the difficulties of Pearson’s first season, the Blue Jays were counting on big things in 2021, hoping that Pearson would emerge as a solid No. 2 starter behind Hyun-Jin Ryu. It was something of a risky move even with Pearson healthy, and his absence (even if it ends up being a somewhat short stint on the IL) now underlines the questions surrounding Toronto’s pitching. Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton, the re-signed Robbie Ray, and new acquisition Steven Matz are all looking for bounce-back seasons, while younger arms like Anthony Kay and Thomas Hatch are still unproven at the MLB level.
If Pearson does miss time, Atkins intimated that Stripling was the favorite to step into the rotation, going from a swingman role to a starting role. As Davidi notes, this could put Kay, Hatch, Thornton, or T.J. Zeuch in line to take over Stripling’s long man job in the bullpen, which creates further juggling down the road about how to manage innings and whether younger pitchers are best deployed as relievers or kept stretched out as rotation depth.
Blue Jays Notes: Hatch, Liriano, Opt-Outs, Montoyo
Right-hander Thomas Hatch made a worrying exit from today’s Spring Training outing, as Hatch immediately signaled for the trainer after throwing a fastball to Aaron Judge. The Blue Jays’ official Twitter feed reported that Hatch left the game due to “right elbow/forearm discomfort.”
Acquired from the Cubs in a deadline trade for David Phelps in 2019, Hatch posted a 2.73 ERA over his first 26 1/3 Major League innings, though advanced metrics weren’t too keen on his performance. Hatch worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen last season, and for 2021 was being viewed by the Jays as a possible reliever or depth starter, or perhaps a bit of both in a swingman or long-relief gig. Unfortunately, those plans may now be up in the air given Hatch’s injury — while more will be known once Hatch is examined by trainers and doctors, it certainly looked like a potential long-term problem for the 26-year-old. [UPDATE: Hatch will undergo an MRI, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets.]
More from Toronto…
- A possible absence for Hatch adds another layer to an already-tricky set of forthcoming roster decisions for the Jays, as Nate Pearson is also looking at a season-opening IL stint due to a setback in his recovery from a groin strain. Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi looks at some of the Jays’ possible options in shaping their roster, and at least one 40-man move will be necessary since Francisco Liriano is looking like a solid bet to make the team. Liriano signed a minor league deal in February that will pay him $1.5MM in guaranteed salary if he makes the MLB roster, and a good Spring Training performance has the veteran in line to win a spot as left-handed depth in Toronto’s bullpen.
- Both Liriano and Joe Panik have March 25 opt-out dates in their minors contracts if they aren’t added to the big league team, while Tommy Milone‘s opt-out is on March 27 and A.J. Cole‘s opt-out isn’t until May 15. In terms of out-of-options players, Reese McGuire and Breyvic Valera can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers, which could give them some advantage in making the team. “The Blue Jays would ideally love to stash a few of their minor-league contracts on the taxi squad, with the carrot of a quick call up if needed,” Davidi writes.
- The Jays announced yesterday that they had exercised their club option on Charlie Montoyo for the 2022 season, giving the manager an additional guaranteed year on his contract. In terms of a longer-term extension, Montoyo told told Mitchell and other reporters that such negotiations had yet to take. Entering his third season as Toronto’s manager, Montoyo led the young Jays to a 32-28 record and a spot in the expanded 2020 postseason last year, and now more is expected of a team that made some big offseason investments.
Blue Jays Pick Up Charlie Montoyo’s 2022 Option
The Blue Jays have secured manager Charlie Montoyo for the 2022 season. GM Ross Atkins announced the move on a Zoom call today, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter) and others. Officially, Toronto picked up their option for the 2022 season. Through two seasons, Montoyo’s Blue Jays have a 99-123 record.
The Jays hired Montoyo from the Rays before the 2019 season to a three-year deal with an option for a fourth. With that option now executed, Montoyo heads into a fairly critical season. Expectations are sky high for the Blue Jays for the first time in Montoyo’s tenure. Montoyo helped Toronto end a three-year playoff drought last season. Speaking hypothetically, if the Jays under-perform in 2021 and finish, say, with 85 wins and outside of the money, the Jays would face a difficult decision on Montoyo heading into a lame duck season. If, on the other hand, the Jays are able to sneak past the Rays and Yankees to win the AL East, an extension could be in order for their 55-year-old manager.
Before taking over in Toronto, Montoyo spent 18 seasons managing in the Rays’ system. He spent three seasons with the Major League team as the third base coach before replacing Tom Foley as Kevin Cash’s bench coach for the 2018 season. Montoyo finished third in AL Manager of the Year award voting in 2020. Last April, Montoyo made history with Alex Cora of the Red Sox in the first-ever MLB match-up featuring two Puerto Rican managers.
Athletics Return Rule 5 Pick Dany Jimenez To Blue Jays
The Athletics announced that they have returned Rule 5 Draft pick Dany Jimenez to the Blue Jays. The A’s also reinstated fellow right-hander Frankie Montas from the COVID-19 injured list.
Jimenez, who turned 27 in December, was a Rule 5 pick in back-to-back offseasons (the Giants took him in 2019), but he has seen little major league action thus far. He pitched 1 1/3 innings with the Giants across two appearances last year. The Double-A level is the highest Jimenez has climbed in the minors, and he logged an excellent 1.87 ERA while averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine in 33 2/3 innings there in 2019.
Now that he’s back with the Jays, Jimenez will report to major league camp as a non-roster invitee, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets.
Quick Hits: Miley, Kirk, Giants, Posey, McGee
The Reds have gotten some unfortunate injury news over the last few days, but it appears as though southpaw Wade Miley won’t miss any time after a hamstring strain forced him out of his last Spring Training outing. As per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link), Miley threw close to 35 pitches in a bullpen session yesterday and is now slated to start for the Reds tomorrow. After signing a two-year, $15MM contract with the Reds in the 2019-20 offseason, Miley’s first season in Cincinnati was a veritable wash, as he posted a 5.65 ERA and was limited to only 14 1/3 innings due to groin and shoulder injuries. Miley and the Reds are certainly hoping for a return to form, as Miley is expected to eat innings and provide some veteran experience at the back of the rotation.
More from around the league…
- Between Alejandro Kirk‘s impressive 25-PA big league debut last season and his huge numbers this spring, the catcher is forcing the Blue Jays into a decision, The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm writes. Kirk looks to have more upside both in the present and future than incumbent backup Reese McGuire, but McGuire is out of minor league options, and thus can’t be sent down to the minors without being exposed to waivers. Chisholm makes the argument that adding Kirk to the MLB roster “seems like a no-brainer,” all things considered. The Jays have enough other minor league catching depth to arguably afford losing McGuire, and Kirk is a better fit for a win-now team like the Blue Jays, even to the point of sharing playing time with Danny Jansen rather than being just a backup catcher.
- A number of Giants-related topics are covered by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser as part of a reader mailbag, including a question about Buster Posey‘s future. This is the final guaranteed year of Posey’s contract, but Slusser doesn’t think Posey is considering retirement following the 2021 campaign. If anything, Posey “looks rejuvenated this spring after” opting out of the 2020 season, “and goodness knows, he’s very competitive. I don’t think he’s lost an ounce of that fire.” Whether 2021 could be Posey’s last season in San Francisco is another matter, as the Giants don’t seem likely to exercise their $22MM club option on Posey for 2022, but may look to re-sign him to a less-expensive short-term deal with an eye towards transitioning him into an eventual post-playing role within the organization.
- From that same piece, Slusser feels Jake McGee looks like the Giants‘ top choice for save situations, though the team probably won’t officially anoint McGee as the closer out of a preference to be as flexible as possible with reliever usage situations. The left-hander signed a two-year deal worth $5MM in guaranteed money back in February, and while McGee has closing experience in the past, he has mostly worked in a setup role over the last four seasons.
Pitching Notes: Gallen, Greene, Braves, Pearson, H. Harvey
The Diamondbacks renewed right-hander Zac Gallen‘s contract on Thursday, meaning he’ll earn roughly the major league minimum of $570.5K this season. That’s standard operating procedure for most teams when it comes to players who aren’t yet eligible for arbitration, though Gallen said it “wasn’t fair based on my performance last year,” Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets. While Gallen acknowledged there’s “a business side to this game,” he would like to see the pre-arb salary situation addressed in the next collective bargaining agreement because the system’s “not necessarily in the favor of younger players.” Whether or not you agree with Gallen, there is no doubt the 25-year-old has vastly outperformed his salaries since he debuted with the Marlins in 2019. So far, the 25-year-old has logged a 2.78 ERA across 152 big league innings. Gallen is not on track to reach arbitration until after 2022. There will be a new CBA in place by then, but it remains to be seen whether it will address Gallen’s concerns on this subject.
- Righty reliever Shane Greene spent the previous year-plus as a member of the Braves, with whom he held his own, but he remains a free agent as the regular season nears. Greene could prove to be a late-spring bargain for someone, but it doesn’t appear the Braves will re-sign him for anything other than “a really cheap offer” in the $1MM range, David O’Brien of The Athletic writes. Unless Greene elects to settle for that type of deal, the Braves will be content to start the year with Will Smith, Chris Martin, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek as their main end-of-game options, according to O’Brien.
- A groin strain has slowed Blue Jays right-hander Nate Pearson this spring, but manager Charlie Montoyo said Friday (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) that he’ll throw a bullpen Saturday. Pearson will not have enough time to build up for a five-inning role by Opening Day, though the Blue Jays aren’t ruling him out for the start of the season, according to Montoyo. A healthy version of Pearson could play a major role in a Toronto starting staff that has little in the way of surefire answers after ace Hyun Jin Ryu.
- Orioles righty Hunter Harvey exited his outing Friday with a left oblique issue. The severity isn’t known yet, but Harvey – who had been in line for a bullpen spot – is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, per Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com. It’s the latest injury-related setback for Harvey, a 2013 first-round pick who has dealt with multiple health issues (including Tommy John surgery) during his professional career. The 26-year-old has totaled 15 innings out of the O’s bullpen dating back to his 2019 debut.
Blue Jays Outright Jacob Waguespack
The Blue Jays have outrighted hurler Jacob Waguespack to Triple-A Buffalo, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. The club previously designated the right-hander for assignment, but he’ll remain part of the organization after clearing waivers.
Waguespack, who turned 27 over the winter, joined the Blue Jays when they acquired him from the Phillies in exchange for left-handed reliever Aaron Loup at the 2018 trade deadline. He made his big league debut a year later with 78 innings of 4.38 ERA/5.05 SIERA ball and below-average strikeout and walk rates of 18.8 and 8.7 percent, respectively.
While Waguespack was mostly a starter during his initial action with Toronto, he came out of the club’s bullpen in all 11 of his 2020 appearances. Waguespack struggled in that role, though, as he posted an 8.15 ERA (with a much more palatable 4.89 SIERA) across 17 2/3 frames.
MLBTR Poll: Projecting The 2021 Blue Jays
The Blue Jays were one of the more active teams in baseball this offseason. Rumored to be interested in virtually every high-profile player on the free agent or trade markets, Toronto eventually made a handful of key additions, none bigger than George Springer. The former Astros star was followed by Marcus Semien, who rounds out a potentially star-studded infield of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio. An outfield of Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernández has the potential to be similarly impressive, at least offensively.
Toronto was also active in adding to the pitching staff, but there’s a lot less certainty in that area. The Jays brought back Robbie Ray and acquired Steven Matz in a trade with the Mets. Those players are coming off down years, though, as are fellow projected rotation members Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling. Only Hyun-jin Ryu looks like a sure bet to provide quality production as a starter.
It’s something of a similar story in the bullpen. Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps bring varying degrees of upside as offseason acquisitions. However, due to either injury or poor performance, none of that trio got good results in 2020 (although in Phelps’ case, that seems to be a product of unsustainably dreadful home run luck). Is that enough to make up for a relief corps that, despite strong performances from Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano, was well below-average by both ERA (4.71) and K% – BB% (10.7 points) in 2020?
Let’s turn to the 2021 projections. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects the Jays for a typical season in the 85-win range. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts system is more bullish, pegging Toronto as an 88-win team. We’ll split the difference: over or under 86.5 wins for the Blue Jays in 2021?
(poll link for app users)
Will The Blue Jays Exceed 86.5 Wins In 2021?
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Yes. 71% (8,158)
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No. 29% (3,389)
Total votes: 11,547
Pitching Notes: Payamps, Mata, Osuna
The Red Sox and Blue Jays continue their divisional tug-of-war over right-hander Joel Payamps. The Blue Jays claimed Payamps from Boston today, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Payamps began the winter as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he made four appearances totaling seven innings over the past two seasons. The Red Sox claimed the 26-year-old at the end of November, but since early February he’s been passed back and forth between Boston and Toronto every two weeks. The Blue Jays claimed him on February 10th. The Red Sox claimed him back on February 22nd. Today the Blue Jays have claimed him again, designating Jacob Waguespack for assignment to make room, adds Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). This isn’t perhaps the stakes that we’ve come to expect out of AL East rivalries, but it’s about as good as it gets this time of year. Let’s see what other news is fit to print…
- Red Sox prospect Bryan Mata has a slight tear in his UCL, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). Mata will avoid surgery for now, though there’s no timetable for his return. Mata is the 4th-ranked prospect in Boston’s system per Baseball America. He’s ranked third in their system by Fangraphs. Obviously, if rest and rehab don’t do the trick, a long road to recovery may await the 21-year-old right-hander. For now, however, Mata and the Red Sox remain optimistic. He made it as high as Double-A in 2019 with 11 starts, a 5.03 ERA/3.99 FIP and promising 52.1 percent groundball rate.
- Roberto Osuna will hold a showcase for teams in the Dominican Republic on March 12th, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Osuna is still just 26-years-old, but he made only four appearances with the Astros in 2020. After initially being diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, Osuna sought a second opinion and chose to rehab the injury instead. Osuna, of course, was already a fairly high-risk signing – at least from an optics perspective – even before the injury because of a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy back in 2018. That said, when healthy, he’s been an incredibly productive bullpen arm, most recently leading the American League with 38 saves in 2019. He owns a 2.74 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 315 innings for his career.
Latest On Jake Odorizzi
7:05pm: The Blue Jays, who were reportedly interested in Odorizzi during the offseason, remain in the mix, Heyman tweets. Other teams besides Houston and Toronto are also involved, per Heyman.
1:09pm: The Astros are among the teams “looking at” free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Houston recently lost Framber Valdéz to a broken finger. There’s been no definitive word on how long Valdéz will be out, but Heyman reported yesterday the initial evaluation suggested he’ll require surgery, which could prove to be season-ending.
Odorizzi is the top starter remaining in free agency, so it’s natural the Astros would check in with his representatives. Adding him would undoubtedly help the current roster; as Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explored yesterday, Houston’s projected rotation now consists of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Cristian Javier and Luis García. That’s a talented group but one light on major league track record at the back end. Beyond that quintet, Brandon Bielak and Forrest Whitley look like the top depth options. (Justin Verlander likely won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September).
Teams are often forced to rely on seven or eight starters over the course of a typical season. This year, they’ll be faced with unprecedented challenges managing workloads coming off a shortened campaign. Greinke’s 67 innings in 2020 led the current projected rotation, so it’d be difficult to count on all (or perhaps any) of the group to go 160-plus innings in 2021.
Odorizzi himself is coming off an injury-ruined year. Three injured list stints (for an intercostal strain, a chest contusion, and blisters, respectively) kept him to just 13.2 innings across four starts for the Twins. That diminished workload probably limits Odorizzi’s innings total this year as well, but he’d add a usually-durable, productive starter to the mix. The 30-year-old averaged 165-plus innings per season from 2014-19 with a cumulative 3.88 ERA and solid strikeout (23%) and walk (8.2%) rates. A few of those years were spent with the Rays, where current Astros general manager James Click worked in the Tampa Bay front office.
That all makes for a logical match on paper, but it’s questionable whether the organization is willing to meet his asking price. Odorizzi was reportedly seeking a three-year deal in the $13MM – $15MM range annually earlier this offseason; he apparently remains content to wait out the market rather than move off that price point. That’s not an outlandish ask for a mid-rotation starter, but concerns about the luxury tax could keep the Astros from spending at that level.
Houston’s current $181MM payroll, as projected by Roster Resource, seems more than manageable for an organization that was set to spend over $210MM on players last season before prorating salaries. However, Heyman notes the Astros’ luxury tax ledger, which uses contracts’ average annual values rather than current year salaries, sits about $13MM shy of the first threshold ($210MM). It’s possible Houston could look into a longer-term deal with Odorizzi that lowers the AAV for tax purposes. Even that type of arrangement, though, would likely push the Astros right up to or over the tax barrier, perhaps necessitating other payroll-shedding moves to stay beneath the threshold and leave room for any in-season acquisitions.
It’s arguable the win-now Astros should be willing to pay the marginal taxes in order to take their best shot at a World Series in 2021. That doesn’t seem likely, though. Houston reportedly wasn’t particularly active in the bidding for free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., another obvious roster fit, because of luxury tax concerns. As Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last month, exceeding the threshold would reduce the draft pick compensation Houston could receive for their slate of potential qualifying offer recipients (Carlos Correa and McCullers among them) next winter. Houston management apparently found that a deterrent, particularly with the organization being dealt significant draft penalties in 2020-21 due to the sign-stealing scandal. An Odorizzi signing would likely raise the same concerns.