Blue Jays Looking At Encarnacion, Smoak, Tsutsugo
The Blue Jays are weighing a pair of familiar names for their first base/DH vacancy, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link) reports that Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Smoak are “getting consideration” from the club. The Jays also continue to be “intrigued” by Japanese free agent Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, though it “certainly doesn’t seem like they’re close on anything” with the slugger.
A fractured right wrist and a strained oblique limited Encarnacion to only 109 games and 486 plate appearances in 2019, his lowest totals in either category since the 2010 season. When Encarnacion was healthy, however, he still wielded a formidable bat, hitting .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers for the Mariners and Yankees. Encarnacion turns 37 in January and would likely be used mostly as a DH in Toronto, owing to both his age, the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface, and the Jays’ desire to see what they have in first baseman Rowdy Tellez.
With a market likely limited to American League teams and a relative lack of DH openings among those teams, Encarnacion could likely be had on a one-year deal, which is surely attractive to a rebuilding Jays team. Bringing Encarnacion back would also undoubtedly be well-received by Toronto’s fans, as Encarnacion was a very popular figure while hitting 239 homers (the third-highest total in club history) for the Jays from 2009-16.
Smoak was another fan favorite for his five solid seasons with the Jays, most notably his 38-homer outburst in 2017. Despite being perhaps the unluckiest hitter in baseball in 2019, Smoak still managed a slightly above-average (101 wRC+ and OPS+) offensive showing of .208/.342/.406 with 22 homers over 500 PA. We haven’t heard much news on the 33-year-old Smoak this winter, though there was some indication after the season that the Blue Jays were thinking about a potential reunion as they weighed their first base options.
What could hurt both Encarnacion and Smoak, however, is that they are only first basemen, whereas GM Ross Atkins has a stated preference for first base “alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well.” Tsutsugo has an advantage in this regard, as he has primarily played outfield for the last several seasons for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars while also having some first base and third base experience in his past. While Tsutsugo isn’t considered to be particularly adept defensively at any position, the Blue Jays might not mind since he’d be slated for a good chunk of DH time anyway.
The 28-year-old Tsutsugo has an impressive .285/.382/.528 slash line and 205 home runs over exactly 4000 PA during his 10 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. Major League teams have until December 19 to negotiate a contract with Tsutsugo, and clubs will then have to pay an additional posting fee (as determined by the size of the contract) to the BayStars under the MLB/NPB posting system.
Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Roark, Gibson, Gausman
Free agent left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu “is emerging as one of the Blue Jays’ prime targets” in the team’s wide-ranging search for pitching, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. With other major pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler already off the board, however, the Jays will face a lot of competition to land Ryu, particularly from teams that come up short on signing Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner. Should the Dodgers fail to sign Cole, Davidi notes, Los Angeles would seem like a prime candidate to pursue re-signing a known quantity in Ryu — indeed, we’ve already heard reports that the Dodgers have Ryu in their sights.
“Right now, the Blue Jays seem determined to not block themselves out of a possible run at Ryu by doing something else,” Davidi writes in a separate piece. Aside from the acquisition of Chase Anderson from the Brewers, however, the Jays haven’t done much to upgrade a rotation that was the team’s chief offseason priority. It could be that the Jays’ deliberate methods of pursuing and evaluating every possible arm on the market are leaving them behind other teams who make a more direct push for a specific pitcher at the top of their list. In the view of one agent, talks with the Blue Jays “are 90 per cent due diligence that doesn’t go anywhere.”
To this end, Davidi wonders if the Jays are really willing to spend “outside their comfort zone” to sign Ryu if he is their top choice, since if not, missing out on Ryu could also in Toronto missing out on several other pitchers who could sign elsewhere in the interim. For instance, Davidi notes that “one path the Blue Jays are particularly keen on” would see Ryu and Tanner Roark both sign with the Jays, after the Dodgers leave the Ryu sweepstakes due to a Cole signing. If this is the case, I’d argue there’s no reason the Jays couldn’t go out of their way to sign Roark now, as he wouldn’t require nearly the price tag of the top pitchers on the free agent market. (MLBTR projected Roark for a two-year, $18MM deal, and in fact predicted he’d end up signing with the Jays.) Toronto is nowhere near any kind of payroll crunch, given the team’s lack of financial commitments both in 2020 and in future seasons.
That said, the Blue Jays have done more than just talk, as the club made multiple contract offers to Kyle Gibson, as manager Charlie Montoyo told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters. The right-hander ended up going to the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal. “You hate to lose guys like Gibson. I was there when we made the offers and they were pretty good offers, just somebody else made a better offer,” Montoyo said.
Kevin Gausman is another free agent hurler who doesn’t appear to be coming to Toronto. Davidi reports that the Jays had interest in the recently non-tendered righty, but Gausman is likely going to sign elsewhere this week.
AL Rumors: Yanks, Gardner, Dellin, Rays, A’s, Hill, Shaw, Jays, BoSox
Multiple teams are showing interest in free-agent outfielder Brett Gardner on a multiyear contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. However, Gardner continues to prefer re-signing with the Yankees, according to Heyman, who adds that the two sides are “still talking.” Indeed, as of a few days, Gardner and the Yankees were continuing to negotiate a new contract. Should they reach an agreement, the 36-year-old Gardner would continue as the longest-tenured player on the Yankees’ roster. Until then, he’ll remain as arguably the most appealing center field-capable player on a market which is weak in that regard.
- Sticking with the Yankees, they’ve “engaged” with another of their longtime contributors, free-agent reliever Dellin Betances, Jack Curry of the YES Network tweets. But so have one of their division rivals, the Rays. Wherever Betances ends up, it’s “likely” he’ll sign a one-year contract in an effort to rebuild his value, per Curry. Although the 31-year-old Betances is one of the game’s most successful relievers in recent memory, injuries to the right-hander’s shoulder, lat and Achilles prevented him from making any meaningful contributions in 2019. Nevertheless, MLBTR expects Betances to land a $7MM payday over one year (with the Rays).
- The Athletics are showing interest in Royals southpaw Tim Hill, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. This isn’t the first trade chatter we’ve heard on the 29-year-old, who turned in 39 2/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball last year. Why the interest from AL contenders in a player that most fans have never heard of? Hill didn’t carry overwhelming overall K/BB numbers (39:13), but did generate a healthy 29.2% K rate against righties while delivering an excellent 57.3% groundball rate. That combination of tools is all the more interesting given the soon-to-be-minted three-batter minimum rule.
- Free-agent infielder Travis Shaw, on the market since the Brewers let him go at the non-tender deadline a week ago, has garnered interest from the Blue Jays, Jon Morosi of MLB.com relays. Additionally, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays that the third baseman/second baseman has expressed a willingness to return to the Red Sox, his first MLB team, though it’s unclear if they’re open to a reunion. Shaw, whom the Red Sox traded to the Brewers in December 2017, had a pair of highly productive years in Milwaukee before his numbers fell off a cliff this past season. That caused the Brewers to move on from Shaw, leaving the 29-year-old as a buy-low candidate this winter.
White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Twins Among Runners-Up For Jordan Lyles
Before Jordan Lyles signed his two-year, $16MM deal to join the Texas Rangers rotation, there was no shortage of interest in the big righty. Though we don’t know which (if any) of these teams made official offers, we do know that the White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers and Twins were among the teams with interest, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Without financial specifics, it’s presumptuous to assume much in regards to the interest level of these four clubs, but the size of the contract inked by Lyles at least hints at a low-scale bidding war for the back-end rotation arm.
The Brewers interest is not surprising, given they acquired Lyles around the deadline in each of the past two seasons and he pitched to a 2.45 ERA (4.42 FIP) to close out 2019. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out that the Brewers have now lost the bidding on each of their free agent targets thus far (except Justin Grimm!), suggesting either limited payroll flexibility or disciplined judiciousness on the part of GM David Stearns. Of course, Lyles signed for more than most would have guessed, and Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas signed for a combined 8-years, $137MM, a stratum the Brewers were hardly expected to reach. On the plus side, should the Rangers scuffle and Brewers stay in the race, we could see the rare baseball trade turkey, when a team successfully strikes for the same player at the deadline for three consecutive seasons.
The Twins and White Sox are two of the more eager starting pitching hunters this offseason, so their inclusion on this list is no surprise either. Both teams are likely to sign a couple of veteran free agents before the winter is out. As for the Blue Jays, they have less urgency given their timeline, though Lyles certainly fits the mold of the type of free agent they are likely to target.
Atkins On Blue Jays’ Offseason Approach
Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins chatted with reporters yesterday about his club’s place in the offseason transactional carousel, as Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic (subscription link) was among those to cover.
Atkins emphasized that the organization has been “aggressive” on the free agent market, especially with regard to starting pitching. While there isn’t a deal to show for it just yet, there’s obviously ample time remaining and a slew of appealing options still on the market.
What of the top options available? “There’s not a free agent that we haven’t touched base with,” he said. It’s tough to see the Toronto organization as a serious player for any of this winter’s super-premium free agents, but Atkins certainly suggested that the front office has at least seen cause to check in on all the possibilities. Whether or not it’ll happen is far from clear — the guess here is it won’t — -but Atkins says the Blue Jays have the capacity to go into nine-figure territory for the right player.
It’s still anyone’s guess which arms the Jays will come away with. But Atkins did strongly suggest the team is likelier to make significant moves via free agency than trade. He expressed a disinclination to part with youthful “players that we’re really excited about” in order to acquire a compelling new MLB hurler.
One possibility: Hyun-Jin Ryu. We haven’t heard much about where the market is headed for the standout southpaw, but Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that the Jays are “in” on him. Just how to interpret that isn’t clear, particularly in light of the Atkins declaration that the team has cast an exceedingly wide net, but it sounds as if there’s at least some real interest on the part of the Toronto organization.
There’s still ample opportunity left for the Jays on the market. And the team is offering notable opportunity for free agents — a selling point in and of itself for certain hurlers. Atkins said that the Jays don’t feel fully committed to any starters other than Chase Anderson for 2020. That’s not to say that four more additions will be forthcoming, but it speaks to the team’s internal uncertainty and willingness to compete jobs.
Blue Jays Checked In On Michael Pineda
The Blue Jays have at least checked in on right-hander Michael Pineda, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN (Twitter link). The precise level of interest isn’t known.
If the Blue Jays are indeed taking an aggressive stance on open-market arms, Pineda would be a good place to start. He’s not expected to secure anything like the big money destined for the very top options, so inking him shouldn’t be overly committing. At the same time, Pineda comes with a blend of recent durability, relative youth, and perhaps some remaining upside that would make good sense for the still-building Jays. That combination will also hold appeal to many other organizations.
We haven’t heard much in the way of early development in the Pineda market. Perhaps some teams will write him off due to his recent PED-related suspension. But it’s otherwise possible to imagine rather broad interest, so a dedicated early pursuit might help the Toronto organization pull off the sometimes-difficult task of luring the hurler north of the border. The Jays are surely still interested in adding multiple rotation pieces even after landing Chase Anderson, so the club is also involved in the markets of quite a few other established starters.
Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays
There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.
Here’s more from other areas of the market:
- Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
- The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
- We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
- The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.
Blue Jays Interested In Josh Lindblom
The Blue Jays have already added one starting pitcher this offseason in ex-Brewer Chase Anderson, but he probably won’t be the last new member of their rotation in 2020. They’ve since been connected to a variety of free-agent starters, and you can add right-hander Josh Lindblom to the group. Lindblom’s on Toronto’s radar, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports.
Lindblom isn’t anywhere close to the top of the starter market – MLBTR projects him to earn $8MM over two years on his next contract – but the 32-year-old does look like an intriguing choice after thriving in Korea from 2017-19. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently highlighted the excellence Lindblom displayed overseas after bouncing around among several destinations, including the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, Athletics and Pirates, from 2011-17.
Now, odds are that Lindblom will return to the majors this offseason, and the team that signs him will surely hope he can come close to enjoying the type of success the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has since he left Japan to join the Cardinals in December 2017. Mikolas hadn’t shown he was capable of sticking in the bigs before he went to Asia in 2015, but he has been a high-quality starter since returning.
Even after picking up Anderson, Toronto’s rotation still looks extremely thin, as Matt Shoemaker (off yet another injury-shortened season) and the relatively unproven trio of Ryan Borucki, Jacob Waguespack and Trent Thornton make up its staff on paper. Signing Lindblom, given what he has done in the majors to this point, wouldn’t necessarily inspire much more confidence. Nevertheless, whether he chooses the Blue Jays or someone else, Lindblom plans to pick his next team by the end of the Winter Meetings on Dec. 12, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).
Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures
3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.
11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.
MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.
Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.
It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.
So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.
In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/3/19
In the course of yesterday’s arbitration whirlwind, we covered quite a few players who reached agreements in advance of the non-tender deadline. But several others also struck deals last night (all projected salaries from MLBTR & contributor Matt Swartz) …
- Righty Anthony Bass has agreed with the Blue Jays at $1.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Recently plucked from the waiver wire, Bass had projected to earn $1.7MM. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he threw 48 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with 8.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. It was his most extensive MLB action since 2015.
- Ben Gamel‘s deal with the Brewers includes a $1.4MM salary as well as a $2.55MM club option for the 2021 season, also per Nightengale (Twitter link). The option functions as an earning ceiling for the outfielder. Gamel had projected at $1.6MM, so he’ll come in under that amount while giving up some upside in the event of a breakout. But the priority is surely to gain another opportunity at playing time. Gamel has hovered in range of league-average with the bat over the past several years but slipped to a .248/.337/.373 slash in 356 plate appearances last year in Milwaukee.
- The Twins have agreed to a deal with righty Matt Wisler, the club announced. The salary isn’t yet known, but it’ll be guaranteed. Given that Wisler is out of options, he’s now rather clearly in line to take a spot in the Minnesota bullpen. The recent waiver claimee projected at $1.0MM. Anything in that range could be a bargain rate for a player that carried a sparkling 63:16 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 relief innings last year. Of course, Wisler was also tagged for 32 earned runs and ten homers, so he’ll have to figure out how to avoid the long ball.
- Infielder Donovan Solano has a $1.375MM deal with the Giants, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). That tops his $1.2MM projection, so obviously the club felt there was some risk that he’d be able to command a greater salary in the course of the arb process. Soon to turn 32 years of age, Solano produced one of the game’s least-expected breakouts in 2019. Long a light-hitting utilityman who struggled to establish himself fully in the bigs, Solano turned in 228 plate appearances of .330/.360/.456 hitting last year in San Francisco.