AL Notes: Scioscia, Angels, Orioles, Price
Reiterating what Angels manager Mike Scioscia recently said himself, club president John Carpino says that the skipper “will not be involved in the GM selection process,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. But he also acknowledged that a new hire won’t have full authority to chart the organization’s operating philosophies. Instead, per Carpino, that will be determined through a “collective effort,” which Shaikin says appears to be an implicit validation of the widely-held notion that the incoming GM will face some notable restrictions. Indeed, Scioscia expanded upon his recent comments regarding the need for philosophical harmony, which, he said, “encompasses, certainly, how you are going to recruit talent, the draft, free agents, international scouting, and the development process.”
- Answering some Angels fan questions, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez provides a look at some theoretical free agent targets. The Halos have rotation depth, but some within the organization believe a top-end arm would make sense, he says. If not, a significant corner outfielder — he addresses Yoenis Cespedes — could be under consideration.
- The collapse of the Orioles has been somewhat overshadowed by other divisional storylines, but has nevertheless been dramatic, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick explores. “It’s a snowball time of the year,” said manager Buck Showalter. “There’s so much positive and negative feeding frenzy this time of year, nothing is as good or bad as it seems.” There is immense uncertainty in Baltimore entering the offseason, and Crasnick sets the stage well for what figures to be an interesting winter.
- Blue Jays lefty David Price says he enjoyed his relationship with then-Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, but doesn’t envision being uniquely moved to sign with the Red Sox just because Dombrowski is now at the helm there, as John Tomase of WEEI.com reports. Price did note that he has found his time in Toronto thus far to be “pretty special.” While it’s not at all clear whether Boston will pursue the star lefty, Dombrowski is obviously a fan (having acquired him at last year’s trade deadline) and has indicated that the team intends to improve the top of its rotation.
Marcus Stroman To Start For Jays On Saturday
Marcus Stroman will make his return to the Blue Jays‘ rotation on Saturday, manager John Gibbons revealed today in an MLB Network appearance (h/t: FOX’s Jon Morosi, on Twitter). He’ll step into the rotation in place of Mark Buehrle, whom Gibbons described as “a little banged up.” Buehrle has returned to Toronto, where he’ll receive a cortisone injection in his left shoulder, tweets Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi.
Stroman’s return would’ve seemed impossible a few months ago, as the promising young right-hander tore his ACL just prior to the season. However, Stroman has healed far, far more quickly than anticipated and has already made a pair of minor league rehab starts. If healthy, he can provide a major boost to the Toronto rotation as the Blue Jays attempt to maintain their slim half-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Stroman will have the opportunity to immediately make a direct impact on that race, as he’ll take the mound at Yankee Stadium.
Stroman allowed four runs on eight hits and five walks with 12 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings in his pair of rehab outings. The former No. 22 overall pick emerged as a potential rotation cornerstone for the Blue Jays in 2014 when he pitched 130 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA ball, averaging 7.6 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. ERA estimators such as FIP (2.84), xFIP (3.17) and SIERA (3.18) all believed Stroman’s true talent level to exceed his ERA in 2014.
MLBTR Mailbag: KBO, Rangers, Reds, Dickey, Sano
Thanks for all of your questions this week. Remember that you can ask about whatever is on your mind in our Tuesday afternoon chats (~2pm central) or through the Mailbag email address: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.
Jung Ho Kang has surprised alot of people playing above the Pirates initial expectations. What other KBO players, besides Nexen’s Byung Ho Park, do you believe can make the transition from the KBO to MLB? — Art Y.
Lotte Giants third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang is one name I’ve been told to keep an eye out for. He’s 28 years old, won’t turn 29 until next July and is hitting .286/.343/.531 with 24 home runs this season. Those numbers aren’t as gaudy as Kang’s or those of Park, but I’d imagine that Hwang will garner some interest from Major League teams this offseason if his team posts him. Hwang won the KBO’s home run derby in 2015 and will be coming off a pair of impressive seasons in Korea.
How is the Rangers’ starting rotation shaping up for 2016? Are there any big name prospects that could be inserted next year? And who do you think the staff ace will be, Darvish or Hamels? — Kenny K.
The Rangers traded a number of their top prospects — including Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, and Alec Asher — to the Phillies in the Cole Hamels trade. The team still has Chi Chi Gonzalez, a former first-round pick, as an option in the farm system, but I think they’ll look to add at least one more proven arm this winter. Yu Darvish is a better pitcher than Hamels, for my money, but how he recovers from Tommy John remains to be seen. I don’t think the Rangers are concerned about putting an “ace” label on either one of them, nor should they be.
I’d expect next season’s rotation to include Darvish, Hamels, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and either Gonzalez or a starter that isn’t currently in the organization. Nick Martinez and Nick Tepesch are serviceable stopgaps, but the Hamels acquisition was made primarily to help this team contend in 2016 and beyond. Whether they look to re-sign Yovani Gallardo or add a similarly established mid-rotation arm like Ian Kennedy or Mike Leake, adding some certainty makes sense given the injury troubles they’ve had in recent seasons.
With the Reds being heavily invested in Votto/Bruce/Bailey and seemingly committed to Hamilton, what are best steps to get back into contention? Of course Winker and Stephenson are pieces; what else might be explored? — Tony R.
Getting “back into contention” seems to imply that the team can do so in 2016, and I don’t believe that to be the case. The Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs, as currently constituted, make the NL Central the toughest division in baseball. The Reds’ best bet, in my eyes, is to spend another season trying to bolster their crop of young talent. There are too many questions — Billy Hamilton‘s OBP, the health of Homer Bailey, Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco, a disastrous bullpen beyond Aroldis Chapman — to make a run at the division realistic.
Moving Brandon Phillips‘ contract to clear an everyday spot for Eugenio Suarez at second base would be a good start to things for the Reds this winter. He can still play a solid second base, and 2015 has been a nice rebound for Phillips, but shedding a nice chunk of the $27MM he’s owed would be highly beneficial.
Chapman, Jay Bruce and even Todd Frazier are all names the Reds should be willing to listen on, as they’re a small market club that probably can’t afford to meet the long-term asking price of Frazier or Chapman. Spend another year stockpiling pitching to pair with Raisel Iglesias, a hopefully revitalized Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani (though DeSclafani’s platoon woes — 4.85 FIP/4.76 xFIP vs. left-handed hitters — are troublesome).
Should Toronto exercise Dickey’s $12 million option or can they acquire a superior, or equal, SP in the FA market at the same price? — Pete T.
Dickey’s poor start and still-underwhelming season numbers lead me to believe most people think this answer’s a flat no, but for me, it’s a yes. The Blue Jays hold a $12MM option with a $1MM buyout on Dickey’s age-41 season, making it an $11MM decision.
R.A. Dickey has been incredibly durable, and the relative certainty of 200+ innings carries extra value for a club that has so many question marks throughout the rest of its rotation. Also at play is the fact that Dickey has quietly had a very strong few months. After a poor start to the year, he’s sporting a 3.19 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. FIP (3.98) and xFIP (4.65) are less optimistic in that time, but Dickey has maintained a well-below-average BABIP over the past six seasons, making the .279 mark he’s posted in this recent stretch seem more sustainable.
The Blue Jays didn’t get the ace they’d hoped when they acquired Dickey, and the price they paid (Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud) looks poor in hindsight. But Dickey doesn’t need to be an ace by any stretch of the means to justify an additional $11MM of spending on a one-year deal. That’s mid-rotation starter money, and he still fits that bill.
Why does it seem that every news outlet says Carlos Correa is going to win AL ROY when Miguel Sano has played better than him? — Jackson L.
Sano has out-hit Correa by a wide margin, but he’s done so in 100 fewer plate appearances while spending nearly all of his time at DH. Correa’s played a respectable shortstop while hitting about 35 percent better than the league-average bat this season. The average shortstop, in comparison, has been about 15 percent worse than the league-average bat in 2015. Sano’s been absolutely outstanding, but he lacks the playing time Correa has amassed, and more importantly, defense matters. If anyone were going to steal it from Correa, my vote would go to Francisco Lindor. Sano is in the mix, to be sure, but he’d need a poor finish from Correa and continued dominance at the plate to pass him up.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Marco Estrada
It took only a month for the Blue Jays to elevate Marco Estrada from rotation depth to full-time starter. After Daniel Norris‘ early struggles got him demoted in early May, Estrada stepped into the open rotation spot and has quietly delivered some quality numbers. Estrada has a 3.18 ERA, 6.78 K/9, 2.93 K/BB rate over 147 1/3 innings, highlighted by no-hit bids in consecutive June starts. This solid season couldn’t have come at a better time for Estrada as he prepares to hit the open market this winter.
It was a little under 14 months ago that Estrada was losing a starting job, as the Brewers demoted him to the bullpen after he posted a 4.96 ERA and a whopping 27 home runs over his first 107 innings of the 2014 season. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes saw Estrada as a borderline non-tender candidate last winter, but the Jays agreed to a one-year, $3.9MM deal after acquiring him from Milwaukee in exchange for Adam Lind. Despite moving to a hitter-friendly AL ballpark in the wake of a season that saw him devastated by the long ball, Estrada has posted a career-low 8.1% homer rate in 2015, well below his 12.1% mark he posted from 2008-14.
Advanced metrics, however, don’t paint nearly as flattering a picture of Estrada’s performance this season. The low strikeout rate, only a 32.2% grounder rate, a .225 BABIP and 77% strand rate all add up to an unimpressive trio of ERA indicators — 4.28 FIP, 4.89 xFIP, 4.58 SIERA. Estrada’s K/9 has steadily dropped in each of the last four seasons and his current 6.78 mark would be the lowest of his career.
Estrada’s success might go beyond just some batted-ball luck. For starters, he is widely regarded as possessing one of the game’s best changeups. Estrada throws his signature pitch 28.5% of the time and at an average speed (78.7 mph) over 10 mph slower than his 89.3 mph fastball, an unusually large velocity drop that creates all sorts of difficulty for batters. Since the start of the 2011 season, Estrada has the lowest line drive rate (18.1%) of any pitcher in baseball with at least 600 innings pitched, so his low BABIP number both this season and over his career (.276 prior to 2015) can partially be explained by the fact that hitters simply have trouble making solid contact with Estrada’s arsenal.
It’s worth noting that, going into 2014, Estrada was considered by some to be a possible breakout star following two strong seasons for Milwaukee. Estrada’s agents at TWC Sports will likely point to 2014 as the outlier of the righty’s four most recent seasons due to the spike in home runs. If Estrada can hold his own (2014 excepted) in the likes of Miller Park and Rogers Centre, it could be argued that he could be even more effective in a less-notorious hitters’ park given how he limits hard contact.
This winter’s free agent class is heavy with top- and front-of-the-rotation arms, and Estrada’s market will further diminish due to the fact that he turns 33 in July 2016. A three-year contract is probably stretching it for a pitcher that old, though it could be argued that Estrada has the type of pitching style that will age well.
I can see Estrada landing a two-year deal in the $20MM range, perhaps with an option added. It’s hard to find comparable contracts given Estrada’s somewhat unique career history, though he could be seen as something of a blend of Carlos Villanueva (a swingman) and Scott Feldman (a non-strikeout pitcher coming to free agency fairly late), with Estrada falling between Villanueva and Feldman in terms of being an established starter. Villanueva signed a two-year, $10MM free agent deal with the Cubs after the 2012 season and Feldman inked a three-year, $30MM deal with the Astros after 2013, so a two-year/$20MM projection for Estrada splits that difference exactly.
It’s possible Toronto could look to bring him back since David Price may leave in free agency and Mark Buehrle may retire, though the team hopes to have a healthy Marcus Stroman and a more seasoned Aaron Sanchez in the 2016 rotation. It’s probably unlikely the Jays make Estrada a qualifying offer since they wouldn’t be keen on paying him roughly $15.7-$16MM on a one-year deal if he accepts. While Estrada is probably looking for multi-year security for his first dip into free agency, it’s not out of the question that he would be the first player to accept a qualifying offer if the Blue Jays did offer one. If Estrada and his agents felt having draft pick compensation attached would severely harm his market (a likely scenario), he could take the QO, still score a nice one-year payday and stay in a familiar situation with a strong lineup and defense.
Presuming he doesn’t have the qualifying offer hanging over him, Estrada could get a lot of interest as an under-the-radar choice for a team that misses out on the big names in the first or second tier of free agent arms. His price tag should be reasonable enough that small or mid-market teams could get into the mix, as well as larger-market teams looking for help at the back of their rotations.
Photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images
Blue Jays Claim Matt Dominguez, Designate Danny Dorn
The Blue Jays have claimed third baseman Matt Dominguez off waivers from the Brewers, the team announced (h/t to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, on Twitter). Toronto has designated first baseman/outfielder Danny Dorn to clear roster space for the move.
Still just 26 years of age, and once a top prospect, Dominguez was unable to lock down a big league job despite a long look from the Astros. He was claimed off waivers by Milwaukee earlier in the year, in hopes that he’d provide a near-term option with some upside, but apparently has not shown enough to warrant a call-up from the Brewers.
Dorn, 31, has had an eventful year after nine seasons exclusively in the minors. After seeing a brief debut with the Daimondbacks, he was claimed by Toronto and will presumably now find another new organization. Dorn owns a lifetime .280/.355/.485 slash with 106 home runs over 2,847 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
AL Notes: Jays, Giavotella, Kelly
The Blue Jays‘ July additions of Troy Tulowitzki, David Price and others fundamentally changed the team, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes. Prior to yesterday’s 10-2 loss to the Orioles, the Jays had scored 200 runs and allowed just 97 in 32 games since acquiring Tulowitzki. Both those marks were the best in baseball in that time frame. Of course, Tulowitzki himself has a modest .696 OPS since joining the Jays, but GM Alex Anthopoulos suggests that pure numbers are only part of the picture. Earlier in his tenure as GM, Anthopoulos says, “I was mostly focused on production.” But merely acquiring productive players didn’t work if those players weren’t the right fits for the team. “So I’m probably a little more balanced now, between production and fit,” he says. Here are more quick notes from the American League.
- Angels infielder Johnny Giavotella has been out the past two weeks, and he said yesterday that he has fourth nerve palsy, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes. The condition causes Giavotella to have double vision when he looks down or to the left. Giavotella says that the symptoms have improved, however, and that the condition will not be permanent. He hopes to return this season.
- Red Sox starter Joe Kelly has had a frustrating season that’s included a demotion to Triple-A, but he’s fared much better lately and could be pitching his way into Dave Dombrowski’s plans for the 2016 Sox, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Kelly has made adjustments lately — via Brooks Baseball, he increased his total usage of breaking balls and changeups from about 28% of pitches in June to about 42% in August. He’s only allowed 14 runs spanning 43 innings in his last seven starts. “It’s something that I’ve learned that you can’t just throw fastballs, especially in this division with hitters we see all the time and are very good hitting ballclubs,” he says. “You’ve got to throw hitters offspeed throughout the whole entire game. It’s something that, hopefully going into next year, realizing what I’m doing, I just have to keep pitching like that.” Lauber notes that the team is likely to try to add a top starter this offseason, and Eduardo Rodriguez could join Clay Buchholz (whose option the Red Sox will likely pick up as long as he doesn’t have any trouble in his recovery from an elbow strain) and Rick Porcello in the 2016 rotation. Kelly could then potentially compete with Wade Miley and Henry Owens for a starting job. Of course, much remains to be determined — Dombrowski’s plans to remake the Red Sox in his first offseason on the job might turn out to be more extensive than the blueprint above suggests.
Notable September Call-Ups
Today’s flurry of transactions has been driven by September call-ups as teams look to expand their flexibility with expanded rosters. Only players who are on the 40-man roster can be activated, of course, meaning that several organizations have had to designate or outright players to clear roster space. On the activation side of the equation, we always see big name prospects reach the bigs in early September, though many of the game’s best big-league ready youngsters have already been elevated this year.
We already noted Hector Olivera‘s promotion earlier today, and you can see all of the day’s promotions at the MLB.com Transactions page. Here are some more of the notable call-ups (for various reasons)…
- Zach Davies, Brewers — Acquired in the Gerardo Parra deal, Davies is heading into the Milwaukee rotation for his first big league action. The rebuilding Brewers figure to have multiple rotation spots open in the long-term, making Davies’ late audition one to keep an eye on. Be sure to check out the MLBTR Podcast episode featuring the young righty.
- Miguel Castro, Rockies — Another recent trade acquisition, Castro was one of the two main pieces (along with fellow righty Jeff Hoffman) who went to Colorado in exchange for Troy Tulowitzki. It’s not clear what role the Rockies have in mind in the near-term, but they’ll get an early look to see whether he will be a part of their plans for 2016.
- Dalton Pompey, Blue Jays — Pompey opened the season with a chance to solidify himself as Toronto’s everyday center fielder, but offensive struggles saw him slide all the way to Double-A. Pompey nonetheless rates as one of baseball’s best prospects, and he’ll again have the opportunity to show the Blue Jays that he can be a long-term piece.
- Javier Baez, Cubs — It’s been a difficult season for Baez, who has dealt with the tragic death of his younger sister and then a broken finger but hit well late in the year at Triple-A. Baez’s light-tower power and exceptional bat speed make him one of the game’s most intriguing power prospects, and a huge September could lead the Cubs to pencil him in as their second baseman in 2016.
- Joey Gallo, Rangers — Speaking of the game’s top power prospects, Gallo wowed the baseball world when he .260/.362/.580 with five homers through his first 14 big league games earlier this year. But, he went 6-for-37 with 22 strikeouts over his next 11 games and was optioned to Triple-A, where his struggles continued. Gallo posted a very three-true-outcomes batting line in 53 games there: .195/.289/.450 with a 39.5 percent strikeout rate in 228 plate appearances. He has as much power as anyone in baseball, but the strikeouts are a concern.
- Marco Gonzales, Cardinals — The 19th overall pick back in 2013, Gonzales debuted with the Cardinals in 2014 and tossed 34 2/3 respectable, if unspectacular innings. He’s dealt with injuries in 2015 and hadn’t pitched in the Majors this season prior to September. The Cards threw him right into the fire tonight, and things didn’t go well (four runs in 2 2/3 innings). Gonzales could be in line for a rotation spot next season, although with Adam Wainwright returning and Jaime Garcia’s option likely to be picked up, he could begin 2016 in Triple-A again.
- Rob Refsnyder, Yankees — Refsnyder had a nice season at Triple-A (albeit a bit light in the power department), and Yankee fans have been clamoring for him to inherit the everyday second base job for quite some time. A platoon with Stephen Drew may be more likely, but Refsnyder will get his first extended run on a big league roster this month and hope to impress the team as Drew heads into free agency.
- Trevor Cahill — Cahill joins the Cubs on a mission to show some semblance of the form he displayed from 2010-13 with the A’s and D-Backs, when he very much looked the part of a mid-rotation starter. Since that four-year stretch (when he notched a 3.72 ERA in 751 innings), Cahill has an ERA just under 6.00 and has been released by the Braves and opted out of a deal with the Dodgers after floundering in Triple-A as well. He’s still only 27.
- Matt Moore, Rays — Moore’s return from Tommy John was dreadful, but he flat out dominated Triple-A hitters following a demotion to get his control back in check. Moore had a 3.30 ERA in Triple-A but held hitters to a .207/.273/.333 batting line with a 43-to-8 K/BB ratio in 30 innings, including an Aug. 22 start in which 16 of the 18 outs he recorded came via strikeout.
- Andrew Bailey, Yankees — The right-hander was a young, ace closer for the Athletics but saw his career fall apart due to injuries after being traded to the Red Sox. He’s thrown well at Triple-A this year after joining the Yankees on a minor league deal, and he’ll now get his first chance at the big league level since way back in 2013.
- Allen Craig, Red Sox — Craig has fallen off the radar after three outstanding seasons with the Cardinals from 2011-13. He’s probably not in Boston’s long-term plans, but a nice September could make it a bit easier for the Sox to generate a little trade interest. Craig batted .274/.368/.350 in Triple-A this season, and while the average/OBP are nice, he had just 18 extra-base hits (14 doubles, four homers) in 399 PAs there.
- Rex Brothers, Wilin Rosario, Rockies — Formerly two key contributors for the Rockies, both have wilted recently, and both could be viewed as change-of-scenery candidates this offseason. Their September performances, for that reason, are worth keeping an eye on.
Blue Jays Designate Colt Hynes
The Blue Jays have designated lefty Colt Hynes for assignment, the club announced. He loses his 40-man spot to help clear space for the team’s September call-ups, which include the previously non-rostered Jeff Francis.
Hynes, 30, earned a brief call-up with Toronto for his second taste of big league action, but threw only three innings. He has enjoyed a solid season at Triple-A, though, throwing 44 2/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with 7.3 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9.
Dodgers Acquire Chris Heisey
The Dodgers have acquired outfielder Chris Heisey from the Blue Jays, Toronto has announced (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, on Twitter). A player to be named later or cash will make up the return in the deal.
While we’re just hearing about the deal today, Heisey was actually acquired last night and will be post-season eligible, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). With rosters now expanded, he’ll join the just-acquired Justin Ruggiano in expanding the team’s right-handed outfield options while the organization waits out some injuries.
Heisey, of course, has spent much of the season with the Dodgers organization after being added in an offseason trade. But he mostly played at Triple-A, and lost his 40-man spot earlier this summer after struggling in limited and scattered big league opportunities.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/31/15
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league, all of which are reported by Baseball America’s Matt Eddy, unless otherwise noted…
- The Nationals and Scott Sizemore have agreed to a minor league contract. Now 30 years old, Sizemore was once a prospect of great intrigue in the Tigers’ system — a potential long-term answer for Detroit. However, after a trade to Oakland, Sizemore wound up missing consecutive seasons when he tore his ACL in 2012 and tragically did so once again after just two games in 2013. Sizemore spent most of the 2015 campaign with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate and didn’t hit much, though he’s been great in six games with the Nats’ Triple-A club since signing: .375/.412/.563. Sizemore can play both second base and third base.
- The Blue Jays have released right-hander Phillippe Aumont, whom they’d previously inked to a minor league pact back in July. Formerly the No. 11 pick in the draft (2007, Mariners), Aumont was one of the key pieces sent to Philadelphia in Seattle’s acquisition of Cliff Lee. However, Aumont’s big league career has never panned out; he’s 26 years old and has a 6.80 ERA in 43 2/3 innings in the Majors. The former Top 100 prospect has battled his control all season long, working to a solid 3.14 ERA in 83 Triple-A innings with 8.8 K/9 but a very troubling 6.8 BB/9 rate in that time. His control worsened upon joining the Jays organization, as he walked 22 batters in 18 innings (he did whiff 23 in that time as well, though).