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MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Ross Atkins Discusses Current State Of Blue Jays’ Roster

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Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke to the media today as the club introduced recent signees Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Those comments were relayed by reporters including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportnet (X links), Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link) and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X links).

“We feel really good about the team that we have,” Atkins said, while acknowledging that further moves could still be forthcoming. “I don’t think we’ll add three players. I think, most likely, that it’s closer to one.” The forthcoming addition would “most likely be in the outfield or DH category, but we’re not limited to that.” When asked if their third baseman was already on the roster, he said that “We feel really good about the team that we have. Between [Santiago] Espinal, [Cavan] Biggio and Kiner-Falefa, we have opportunities to deploy different lineups and different players playing third base potentially.” Further moves could change the role for Kiner-Falefa but “There could be a pathway for him to get a lot of third base at-bats the way we’re currently constructed.”

All of this would seem to suggest that their likelihood of re-signing Matt Chapman is currently low, though some caveats apply. While Atkins suggested they are more focused on an outfield/DH addition, he did at least leave the door open by saying they are “not limited to that.” It’s also possible that this is a negotiating tactic, downplaying their interest in order to improve their leverage in contract talks.

If it does come to pass that Kiner-Falefa replaces Chapman in getting the bulk of the playing time at the hot corner, that would count as a notable downgrade for the club. Both are excellent defenders but IKF has a career batting line of just .261/.314/.346, which translates to a wRC+ of 81. Chapman, meanwhile, has hit .240/.329/.461 in his career for a wRC+ of 118. Kiner-Falefa could make up for that gap somewhat with his speed, having stolen 56 bases over the past three years, but Chapman is obviously the superior player overall. Kiner-Falefa has a career tally of 3.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, a figure that Chapman has topped in a single season on four occasions.

It seems the club is focused on run prevention, as both Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier are defensive specialists, while hoping for greater offense from their incumbent players. “We feel like last year was just a blip in terms of run-scoring,” Atkins said today, per Matheson. Lineup regulars like George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk all had relative down years at the plate in 2023 and it seems like the club is expecting that group bouncing back to make up for the loss of Chapman’s bat.

If this is an honest assessment of the club’s current makeup and not mere posturing, it’s a bold gambit for the club to take. The offense was a bit underwhelming in 2023 and the lineup has since lost Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield. The club seemed focused on upgrading the lineup all winter, having been connected to big bats like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger and others. While Ohtani and Soto are off the board, Bellinger is still available, as are some other known targets. The club has been connected to DH-type players like Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto and Justin Turner. It seems at least one addition is still forthcoming but the Jays could be placing a lot of faith in a return to form from the aforementioned quartet.

It’s also possible that some internal improvements could come from elsewhere. Davis Schneider had a red hot debut in 2023 but cooled later in the year. He still finished with a batting line of .276/.404/.603 in his first 141 major league plate appearances, translating to a wRC+ of 176. He surely won’t be able to maintain that, but even some regression could perhaps see him bolster the lineup over a full season.

The club also got encouraging minor league performances, to varying degrees, from players like Spencer Horwitz, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement, Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes. All of those players have either made their major league debut already or have reached Triple-A, making them plausible contributors to the 2024 club. A strong step forward from one or two guys in that group could quickly cut into IKF’s playing time. “I know the off-season isn’t done,” Kiner-Falefa said today, per Davidi. “I know are still going to be moves. I’m just ready to play everywhere.”

The club is clearly not done and it’s perhaps best to reserve judgement until later in the offseason, but it currently looks a bit odd. The Jays clearly set their sights high and it seemed as recently as a few weeks ago that they were committed to making a big splash to upgrade the lineup but now appear to have made a significant shift in how they are approaching their 2024 roster construction.

On another note, Atkins relayed that the Jays have added Matt Hague to their big league coaching staff as assistant hitting coach, per Nicholson-Smith. Hague played in 43 big league games between the Pirates and Blue Jays. He last appeared in the majors in 2015 but continued toiling away in the minors through 2018. For the past four years, he has been serving as a hitting coach in the minor leagues of the Jays’ system but will now get a chance to join a major league staff.

Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson

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After missing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite finishing as finalists for both stars, the Blue Jays have recently pivoted to smaller moves than the blockbusters they were contemplating earlier in the offseason. They’ve re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and added utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to their infield mix over the past week and a recent report regarded the club as the leaders for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the club has also continued to be active in the positional market since signing Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa, showing strong interest in free agent slugger Joc Pederson.

Pederson, who MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern profiled just this morning, is coming off something of a down season with the Giants in 2023. The 31-year-old got off to a scorching hot start this past season with a .281/.394/.518 (150 wRC+) slash line through June 17, though that stretch accounted for just 137 plate appearances as the slugger battled wrist and hand injuries early in the season. While Pederson managed to avoid the injured list throughout the remainder of the season, his performance declined significantly throughout the remainder of the campaign. In 288 trips to the plate from June 18 onward, Pederson hit a meager .213/.326/.369 (92 wRC+), a performance that dragged his overall season line down to .235/.348/.416 (111 wRC+). While Pederson’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate were more or less in line with his earlier production, Pederson’s BABIP shrunk from .317 to just .247 while his power production suffered a simultaneously dip.

After crushing seven home runs in just 36 games early in the season, Pederson’s final 85 appearances saw him hit just eight round-trippers. Interestingly, the disparity in production came with similar peripheral numbers; Pederson had the same groundball percentage of 39.5% both before and after the aforementioned June 17 cutoff, and his soft contact rate actually went down from 12.8% to 10.8% the rest of the way. Given the minimal change in Pederson’s peripherals regarding batted balls and plate discipline, it’s seemingly fair to expect improved performance in 2024, particularly if he moves to a more homer-friendly park outside of San Francisco. That conclusion is further supported by Pederson’s excellent .368 xwOBA, which outstrips his wOBA by 37 points and is a mirror image of the .367 xwOBA he posted during his dominant 2022 campaign.

If Pederson can even come close to replicating his 2022 season, where he slashed an excellent .271/.353/.521 (146 wRC+) en route to his second career All Star campaign, he’d be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays roster short on left-handed bats following the departure of Brandon Belt, who posted a 138 wRC+ in 103 games this year as the club’s primary DH. Though Pederson primarily played DH in 2023 due to an outfield logjam in San Francisco, the slugger could also help to take some pressure off of Daulton Varsho in left field after a difficult 2023 season. The addition of Pederson would go along way to improving a Toronto offense that underperformed somewhat in 2023 and has since lost both Belt and Matt Chapman to free agency.

Of course, it’s important to note that Nicholson-Smith suggests that things are far from a done deal between the two sides, with the Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, and Cubs all standing as other potential suitors (though the Cubs, Nicholson-Smith notes, may only have interest should they fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger). Likewise, the Blue Jays are interested in plenty of potential bat-first options beyond Pederson, with Nicholson-Smith name-checking each of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, and Justin Turner. Nicholson-Smith goes on to suggest that a deal with Pederson wouldn’t preclude the Jays from adding a second player from that mold, though it’s worth noting that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base only Justin Turner has recent experience elsewhere on the diamond, meaning Pederson would likely need to play the outfield on a regular basis in that scenario.

Blue Jays Interested In Gio Urshela

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The Blue Jays had interest in signing Gio Urshela this offseason, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  It isn’t known if Urshela is still on the Jays’ radar, as Nicholson-Smith notes that Toronto’s recent deal with Isiah Kiner-Falefa might’ve already addressed the club’s apparent need in the utility infield market.

There hasn’t been much buzz about Urshela this winter, which isn’t surprising given the injury-shortened nature of the infielder’s season.  Urshela didn’t play after suffering a pelvic fracture in June, ending his 2023 campaign after 62 games with the Angels.  Based on the initial timeline given for Urshela’s recovery, he should be ready by the start of Spring Training, though there wasn’t enough time remaining for him to both rehab his injury and ramp up prior to the end of the Angels’ regular-season schedule.

Urshela hit .299/.329/.374 over 228 PA with Los Angeles while bouncing around the diamond at all four infield positions.  Most of Urshela’s action came at third base in place of the injured Anthony Rendon, and the vast majority of Urshela’s playing time in his eight MLB seasons has been as a third baseman.  The Outs Above Average metric hasn’t been a fan of Urshela’s third base glovework while the Defensive Runs Saved (+10) and UZR/150 (+3.9) metrics have given positive grades to 4620 1/3 big league innings at the hot corner.

Urshela has also shown some quality at the plate, particularly when he hit .310/.359/.523 over 650 PA for the Yankees during the 2019-20 seasons.  This rather unexpected breakout earned Urshela a regular spot in New York’s infield mix, though a somewhat injury-marred down year made him expendable, and the Yankees dealt Urshela to the Twins as part of their big five-player swap in March 2022.

While Urshela didn’t quite reach his offensive heights from his time with the Yankees, he still had a solid bounce-back year, hitting .285/.338/.429 in 551 PA in Minnesota.  Despite these good numbers, the Twins dealt Urshela to L.A. last offseason, in part due to Minnesota’s crowded infield picture and in part due to Urshela’s escalating arbitration salary (a projected $9.2MM, which ended up being $8.4MM after he lost his arb hearing in search of a $10MM salary).

If healthy, the 32-year-old Urshela could be at least a decent signing for a team in need of infield help, with some higher-ceiling potential if Urshela can even replicate his 2022 numbers, let alone his two big Yankees years.  It makes sense that the Blue Jays would’ve had him on their target list given their infield needs this winter, plus Toronto is quite familiar with Urshela due to his past time in their organization — he briefly played for the Jays in 2018, appearing in 19 games at the Major League level.

The Blue Jays’ plans at third base may hinge on whether or not the team can re-sign Matt Chapman, but if Chapman departs, it isn’t out of the question that the Jays could still pursue Urshela even with Kiner-Falefa already in the fold.  IKF’s lack of offensive pop makes him an imperfect answer as a starting third baseman, so if Kiner-Falefa is viewed more as a utility piece, Urshela’s higher-caliber bat and still-solid glove could make him a better option for a regular third base role.

Blue Jays Have Reportedly “Taken The Lead” In Yariel Rodriguez Sweepstakes

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After missing out on top free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto earlier this month, the Blue Jays have ramped up activity at the lower levels of the market of late by re-signing center fielder Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year pact and landing utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal in recent days. It appears the club isn’t stopping there, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reported Friday afternoon that the club has “taken the lead” in the sweepstakes for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, who Rojas adds is “close” to making a decision in free agency. It’s hardly a surprise that the Blue Jays have interest in Rodriguez, as a recent report indicated that Toronto was among several teams with interest in the righty.

Rodriguez, 27 in March, is among the most intriguing free agents available on the market this offseason. The right-hander was granted free agency by MLB back in early November after being released from his deal with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez’s professional career began in Cuba during the 2015-16 season, and he spent six seasons pitching primarily as a starter to solid results in his home country before joining the Dragons ahead of the 2020 campaign. Upon arriving in Japan, Rodriguez was moved to the bullpen and broke out in a big way during the 2022 campaign, where he posted a dominant 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate.

Rodriguez participated in the World Baseball Classic in early 2023 as a member of Team Cuba and began to stretch back out as a starter in that series, throwing 7 1/3 innings across two appearances. After the event, Rodriguez declined to report back to the Dragons and sat out the 2023 season before securing his release after the season. Since then, Rodriguez has hosted workouts for a host of MLB clubs in the Dominican Republic, allowing scouts an opportunity to see the right-hander up close.

Whether Rodriguez will be able to stick in the majors as a starter or not has been a point of division among clubs throughout his free agency, though the Blue Jays reportedly fall into the camp that views him as a starting pitcher alongside teams such as the Pirates and Red Sox. While Rodriguez has also received recent interest from the Reds, Padres, and Yankees, each reportedly prefers the right-hander as a reliever. Due in part to that division on whether his future is in the rotation or the bullpen, Rodriguez’s position as the #28 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a deal worth $32MM over four years, is less concrete than other free agents of a similar caliber.

In spite of the uncertainty involved in Rodriguez’s free agency, the Blue Jays are a solid fit for the right-hander’s services. While Toronto has a full rotation on paper with a stable quartet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi, the uncertainty surrounding right-hander Alek Manoah creates a major question mark at the back of the club’s starting staff. Manoah was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award in 2022 with a dominant 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work, but his performance fell off a cliff in 2023 as he managed an ERA of just 5.87 in 19 starts for Toronto as he spent much of the summer in the minor leagues.

By adding Rodriguez to the club’s mix, the Blue Jays add additional starting depth to the club’s mix while also giving Manoah significant competition for the fifth starter role entering the season. If Rodriguez were to either struggle in the rotation or simply be pushed out by the re-emergence of Manoah or a strong debut from top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, he could then be utilized to bolster a bullpen that lost Jordan Hicks to free agency last month. Hicks’s departure leaves open a vacancy at the back of Toronto’s bullpen alongside closer Jordan Romano and set-up man Erik Swanson, where Rodriguez would be an excellent fit if he wound up outside of the club’s preferred rotation mix.

Blue Jays Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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The Blue Jays have signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa, per a club announcement. It’s a two-year, $15MM deal, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (X link), with another $1MM available in incentives. Kiner-Falefa is represented by ALIGND.

Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove as the Rangers’ regular third baseman in 2020, but he hasn’t since played much time at the hot corner, since Texas used him primarily at shortstop in 2021 and the Yankees did the same in 2022.  This past season saw New York shift IKF all around the diamond since Anthony Volpe took over as the everyday shortstop, with Kiner-Falefa racking up a lot of playing time in center field (278 1/3 innings), left field (248 innings), back at third base (240 1/3 innings), right field (40 innings), shortstop (eight innings) and a lone inning as a second baseman.  The public defensive metrics were mixed on his outfield work, but Kiner-Falefa graded pretty well as an infielder, particularly in his return to third base.

With Matt Chapman a free agent, it would seem like the Blue Jays could install Kiner-Falefa as their regular third base option for the time being, giving the club at least a glove-first starter if either Chapman signs elsewhere or if a more clear-cut starter can’t be found.  That said, IKF is probably less of a Chapman replacement than he is a replacement for Whit Merrifield, another right-handed hitter who was deployed regularly as a second base and in the outfield.  Kiner-Falefa adds even more versatility since Merrifield played very little third base and no shortstop.

IKF is also a better defensive fit at third base than any of Toronto’s incumbent crop of infielders, such as Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, or Ernie Clement.  Biggio is the only left-handed bat in that group, so it stands to reason the Jays might trade one of the righty-swingers now that Kiner-Falefa is on board.  Adding a more experienced Major Leaguer also gives the Blue Jays more flexibility in giving more minor league evaluation time to top prospects Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger, who should both be in the Show at some point in 2024 and could factor into the infield picture (particularly at third base).

While Kiner-Falefa may work from a depth and glovework perspective, however, he doesn’t represent much or any help to the Blue Jays’ larger need for offense.  Kiner-Falefa hit .242/.306/.340 over 361 plate appearances with the Yankees last season, essentially matching his .261/.314/.346 slash line over 2415 career PA at the big league level.  This translates to an 81 wRC+ — tied for the fourth-lowest total of any player with more than 2000 PA since the start of the 2018 season.

The lack of offense has limited Kiner-Falefa to 3.8 fWAR over his six Major League seasons, despite his defensive contributions.  He rarely strikes out, yet this contact-hitting approach rarely yields hard contact, and he has little power to speak of with only 26 career home runs.

A two-year, $15MM contract seems like a pretty nice score for Kiner-Falefa with this lack of offense in mind, yet there was still quite a bit of interest in the utilityman on the open market.  The Brewers, Dodgers, Marlins, and Yankees were all linked to Kiner-Falefa on the rumor mill, and Toronto’s own interest in IKF was first cited by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi earlier this month.

Between Kiner-Falefa today and yesterday’s agreement with Kevin Kiermaier, the Blue Jays have sprung into action after a rather quiet offseason caused by the team’s focus on chasing Shohei Ohtani.  The Jays remained at least speculatively linked to a number of other players besides Ohtani, of course, as GM Ross Atkins’ front office routinely checks in on basically every available free agent or trade target as a matter of due diligence.  While Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier should help preserve the Jays’ excellent defense from 2023, some offensive pop seems necessary, whether at DH or to further bolster the infield or outfield picture.

As per Roster Resource, the Jays’ 2024 payroll projects to be just shy of the $230MM mark with Kiner-Falefa now on the books.  This leaves a bit of space remaining before Toronto hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold, though that isn’t really a barrier considering that the Blue Jays exceeded the tax line (for the first time in franchise history) last season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jays Re-Sign Kevin Kiermaier To One-Year Deal

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The Blue Jays announced that the club has re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year deal Thursday evening. The Equity Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $10.5MM, while the deal contains additional incentives.

Kiermaier, 34 in April, was a 31st-round pick by the Rays in the 2010 draft and quickly proved to be one of the savvier late-round picks in recent memory. After making his big league debut in a one-game cup of coffee during the 2013 season, Kiermaier stepped into the club’s everyday center field role in early 2014 and remained in that role for nine seasons where he established himself as a generational defender while slashing a respectable .248/.308/.408 during his time with the Rays. He departed the club to join the Blue Jays on a one-year deal last offseason that went very well for both sides. The veteran posted a 104 wRC+ while playing in 129 games, just the third time in his career he eclipsed 120 games in a season.

As a superlative defender in center who bats left-handed and slashed a respectable .260/.321/.431 against right-handed pitching last year, Kiermaier still makes some sense for a Jays club that sports few left-handed bats and had a vacancy in the outfield. That being said, the club has been frequently tied to Cody Bellinger to this point in the offseason and, with a strong center field defender in Daulton Varsho still on the roster, had generally been expected to pursue a more offensively oriented addition to their lineup this winter. That makes the club’s reunion with Kiermaier something of a surprise.

With that said, Kiermaier is certainly a quality player in his own right; his decent offense and strong defense earned him the #31 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $26MM deal. That projection ended up coming in high by a year and more than $15MM. If the Blue Jays evaluated Kiermaier similarly, they may have felt that reuniting with the veteran at a relative discount was valuable enough to outweigh concerns about the club’s overall offensive production in the outfield, which combined to post a 99 wRC+ last year good for just 20th in the majors. Only the Marlins received less production from their outfield unit than Toronto among playoff teams in 2023.

It must also be noted that the return of Kiermaier needn’t necessarily preclude the club from adding Bellinger or another impact bat to the outfield mix. Talented as Varsho is, the 27-year-old is coming off an abysmal season at the plate where he slashed just .220/.285/.389 in 158 games, and even his strongest season with Arizona saw him post a wRC+ of just 107. That sort of production falls short of the typical everyday left fielder, and it would certainly be defensible for the Blue Jays to move Varsho into a part-time role backing up veterans Kiermaier and George Springer if it meant the addition of an impact bat to the club’s lineup. If the club chooses to go that route, the addition of a bat-first player such as Jorge Soler to the outfield mix could still make plenty of sense.

When discussing Bellinger specifically, the 28-year-old’s experience at first base both in 2023 and throughout his career could also help the Blue Jays fit him into their positional mix if they choose to do so. It’s at least reasonable to imagine a scenario where the club adds Bellinger and utilizes him both in the outfield and also at first base, where he could spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and allow the club’s franchise first baseman to spend more time at DH. Roster Resource projects the Blue Jays for a payroll of $213MM in 2024 following the addition of Kiermaier, a figure that’s essentially identical to their $214MM payroll last season. With that being said, the club surely has room for further additions given their reported pursuits of pricey superstars such as Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency as well as Juan Soto via trade.

While that remaining space in the budget could certainly be used to further shore up the outfield, it’s possible the club would prefer to turn its attention toward the infield. The departures of Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield in free agency leave the Blue Jays without established, surefire starters at either second or third base. While youngster Davis Schneider has shown promise and the likes of Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal provide depth at both positions, adding at least one infielder to the mix appears to be a likely top priority for the club going forward this offseason.

In the meantime, the Blue Jays have shored up an area of weakness on the roster by bringing back a four-time Gold Glover at a premium defensive position. Kiermaier’s quality work in 2023 played a major role in Toronto’s 3.8 fWAR in center field tying with Boston for the eight-most production in baseball at the position, and he should provide the club with similar production next season if he can remain healthy headed into his age-34 campaign.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Blue Jays and Kiermiaer were nearing agreement on a one-year deal in the $10MM range. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that the sides had an agreement on a $10.5MM guarantee with incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Clubs’ Interest In Yariel Rodriguez

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December 28: ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (on X) that Boston, Pittsburgh and Toronto have all shown interest in Rodriguez as a starter. Cincinnati, San Diego and the Yankees prefer the right-hander in a relief role. Rojas indicates that Rodriguez prefers to start, although there’s no indication he has officially ruled out any teams targeting him in a bullpen capacity.

December 27: The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams still showing interest in free agent right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, tweets Francys Romero. Last week, Romero reported that the Pirates, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees were also in the running.

Cincinnati hasn’t been frequently tied to Rodriguez throughout the offseason. The Reds were among roughly half the league that sent scouts to evaluate the righty’s throwing session in the Dominican Republic on October 10, a few days after he’d been granted his release from the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. There hasn’t been much to connect the sides since that point, although it’s not especially surprising that Cincinnati is involved on one of free agency’s younger pitchers.

The Reds have made two major league additions to the pitching staff. Swingman Nick Martinez signed for two years and $26MM, while reliever Emilio Pagán inked a two-year, $16MM deal. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated that Martinez will compete for a rotation spot but stopped short of calling him a lock for the season-opening five.

Rodriguez falls into a similar category, as there’s some question about whether he’ll stick in an MLB rotation. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen with the Dragons in his final NPB season in 2022. He turned in a stellar 1.15 ERA while striking out 27.5% of opponents over 54 2/3 innings. His 8.3% walk percentage was right in line with the MLB average.

Despite the strong results in relief, it’s likely whichever MLB team signs Rodriguez will give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He had started in Cuba’s top league before his stint in Japan, and he worked out of the rotation for the Cuban national team during last spring’s World Baseball Classic. Clubs that feel Rodriguez has mid-rotation upside could entertain a noteworthy contract. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke before the beginning of the offseason suggested Rodriguez could land a guarantee between $30MM and $50MM.

The Reds have a projected rotation of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Left-hander Brandon Williamson and Martinez stand as the top competitors for the #5 job. Aside from Martinez, it’s a generally young group. They’ve all shown promise at the MLB level, but each of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft battled injuries last season. None of Abbott, Williamson nor Martinez have ever pitched a full season out of an MLB rotation. That’s also true of Rodriguez, of course, but the Reds could view his youth and ability to work multiple innings as a strong fit as they move firmly into win-now mode after their 2022 retool.

Boston has been linked to Rodriguez more frequently throughout the winter. The 6’1″ hurler held a workout in front of Sox’s and Padres’ evaluators last month. Boston is casting a wide net on the rotation front. While they’ve been tied to top-of-the-market hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recently wrote they appeared more focused on the middle tiers of the free agent class.

Blue Jays Interested In Amed Rosario

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The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Amed Rosario, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that the veteran infielder is “on the team’s radar,” and that “under the right circumstances” Rosario could be a fit for Toronto’s roster.  These conditionals seem to imply that multi-positional players like Rosario or Isiah Kiner-Falefa (another known player of interest for the Jays) could perhaps be fallback options if the Blue Jays can’t land one of their primary targets for their vacancies at second and third base.

Rosario was one of baseball’s top minor leaguers during his time in the Mets’ farm system, universally seen as a top-10 prospect heading into the 2017 season.  A lack of inconsistency over his first four MLB seasons ultimately made the Mets willing to part ways, though Rosario held enough value that he was still one of the key pieces of the four-player trade package New York sent to Cleveland for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco in January 2021.

The change of scenery seemed to work out, as Rosario hit .282/.316/.406 with 22 home runs and 31 steals (in 35 attempts) over 1258 plate appearances during the 2021-22 seasons.  Between this above-average (103 wRC+) offensive production and some passable defense, Rosario generated 5.2 fWAR for the Guardians over those two seasons as their regular shortstop.

2023 was much more of a struggle, as Rosario hit only .263/.305/.378 over 545 total PA with the Guardians and Dodgers.  A deadline trade to Los Angeles didn’t get Rosario’s bat on track, though his new role as a second baseman showed some promising results in a small sample size.  Rosario had +3 Defensive Runs Saved and a +18.2 UZR/150 over 190 innings at second base in L.A., which marked the first time he had played the position in his big league career.

Public defensive metrics had generally been down on Rosario’s shortstop glovework throughout his career, and last season represented a nadir of -16 DRS, -4.4 UZR/150, and -14 Outs Above Average.  It was a disappointing setback after Rosario had very impressive DRS and UZR/150 numbers as a shortstop in 2022, and it could hint that Rosario’s defensive future is ultimately at the keystone.  Rosario has also gotten some limited playing time in left and center field, so he could be more of a utility player even if he isn’t a defensive standout as an outfielder.

MLBTR ranked Rosario 39th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting a two-year, $18MM deal even in the wake of his lackluster 2023 season.  The combination of Rosario’s age (28), his past top-prospect pedigree, and the overall thin middle infield market factored into the prediction of a multi-year contract, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him land just a one-year “prove it” type of contract.  Such a deal might appeal to Rosario and his reps at Octagon as well, as a bounce-back in 2024 could then line Rosario up for a more lucrative multi-year contract as a free agent next winter.

In Toronto, Rosario would essentially be a replacement for Whit Merrifield — a right-handed hitter mostly slotted for second base but who could also fill in for Daulton Varsho or Kevin Kiermaier in left or center field when a southpaw starter is on the mound.  Rosario also brings a lot of speed and good contact numbers, as evidenced by a solid 22.1% strikeout rate.

However, as Nicholson-Smith’s report hinted, there are some reasons why the Blue Jays might not necessarily have Rosario at the top of their wishlist.  His subpar numbers in 2023 don’t represent much of an upgrade for a Toronto team whose offense struggled last year, and it can be argued that the Jays already have comparable internal options at second base.  The group of Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, and Ernie Clement are still on the roster, and prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, or Leo Jimenez could all make their MLB debuts perhaps rather early in the 2024 campaign.  Most players in this group are better suited for second base than third base, so signing Rosario for at least a semi-regular keystone role would create a bit of a logjam for the Jays.

The Blue Jays’ pursuit of Shohei Ohtani dominated the headlines and seemingly much of the team’s attention for the first portion of the offseason, but the Jays made their first big move of the winter just yesterday as news broke of the club’s reunion with Kiermaier on a one-year deal.  Beyond Rosario and Kiner-Falefa, such infielders as Jonathan India, Jake Cronenworth, Justin Turner, Rhys Hoskins, and Isaac Paredes have been linked to the Blue Jays on the rumor mill, plus re-signing third baseman Matt Chapman remains a possibility.  With Kiermaier’s return helping solidify the outfield picture, Toronto’s focus may now shift to addressing their needs in the infield and at DH.

Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, Yankees Continue To Be Interested In Yariel Rodriguez

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Yariel Rodriguez’s market continues to percolate, as the Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Yankees “are still in the bidding for” the right-hander’s services, according to reporter Francys Romero (X link) earlier this week.  Romero’s post came prior to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s deal with the Dodgers, as Romero suggested that Rodriguez’s suitors were first waiting for Yamamoto to sign.

This would seemingly refer to the Yankees and Blue Jays in particular, who were known to be in the running for Yamamoto’s services.  Toronto was a bit more on the periphery of the hunt while the Yankees were seemingly one of three or four finalists, joining the Mets and Giants in falling short of the Dodgers in the bidding for the Japanese ace.  Presumably neither the Yankees or Jays would’ve been in on Rodriguez if they had signed Yamamoto, so the presence of two big spenders still in the market is good news for Rodriguez and his reps at WME Baseball.

It should be noted that Romero didn’t state that these four teams were finalists for Rodriguez, or that any other known suitors were out of the running.  The Astros, Jays, Pirates, and Yankees were all listed among the 10 interested teams in Romero’s initial report about Rodriguez in early November, and that group (which also included the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, and White Sox) has grown to include the Rays, Red Sox, and Padres in subsequent reports.

Rodriguez is something of a wild card in the free agent pitching market, given that he has spent most of his career pitching in Cuba, he worked mostly out of the bullpen with the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2020-22, and he didn’t pitch at all in 2023 (apart from the World Baseball Classic) since he sat out the NPB season trying to get released from his contract with the Dragons.  However, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 27 until March, and there is enough intrigue in his upside as a starter that MLBTR ranked him 28th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $32MM contract.

This price point would put Rodriguez in range for even lower-payroll teams, even if such clubs are taking more of a risk in such a financial commitment for a pitcher with no Major League track record.  For the Pirates specifically, $32MM for Rodriguez would rank as one of the eight most expensive contracts in the franchise’s history, so it would seem rather aggressive for a Bucs team just coming out of a rebuild to suddenly splurge on an unproven arm.  That said, the Pirates are known to be looking for more rotation help, and they could have enough faith in Rodriguez’s upside that they could view something like a $32MM investment as a potential bargain.

International signings have been the backbone of the Astros’ run of success over the last decade, in the form of inexpensive deals for future stars like Jose Altuve or Framber Valdez, or Houston’s more significant investment in a five-year, $47.5MM deal for Yuli Gurriel when he came to the big leagues from Cuba during the 2016 season.  Current Astros general manger Dana Brown naturally wasn’t in change of the front office back in 2016, though he did suggest that his team was looking to add “a legit third starter or better” this offseason, while acknowledging that the Astros were working with a somewhat limited amount of spending space.  Roster Resource projects Houston’s 2024 payroll to sit almost exactly at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which is notable since the Astros have only once (in 2020) exceeded the tax line in their history.

Signing Rodriguez would be an interesting fallback position from Yamamoto for either New York or Toronto.  Rodriguez’s lack of track record wouldn’t necessarily solidify a rotation that already has a couple of injury-related question marks in Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, as well as the unproven Clarke Schmidt as the projected fourth starter.  However, the Yankees might view Rodriguez as an upside play as a de facto fifth starter, or perhaps even a bullpen addition if he doesn’t work out as a starter.

The same could be said about Rodriguez’s possible usage on the Blue Jays’ staff, even if Toronto’s rotation is a little more defined.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi project as the top four, with Alek Manoah penciled in as the fifth starter for now despite all of the uncertainty in the wake of Manoah’s rough 2023 season.  Adding Rodriguez would give the Blue Jays more depth if Manoah can’t bounce back, or perhaps the Jays would then feel more emboldened to trade Manoah or even Kikuchi to address other needs in the lineup.

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