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Blue Jays Announce Rogers Centre’s New Outfield Dimensions

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Reports surfaced last week that the Blue Jays’ renovations to Rogers Centre would involve some changes to the playing field, and those changes were confirmed yesterday when the team officially announced the dimensions of the newly-reconfigured outfield.  Rogers Centre had previously had uniform dimensions in terms of wall size and relative distances from home plate, but now many aspects of the outfield will play a bit differently in 2023.  (MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson has a visual aid of the new dimensions within his piece on the outfield changes.)

Formerly a standard size of 10 feet tall, the outfield wall’s size will now be staggered, ranging from eight feet in straightaway center field to 14 feet and four inches for the walls in right-center field and down the left field line.  The wall down the right field line will also grow to 12 feet and seven inches, and the wall in left-center will be 11 feet and two inches high.  The power alley walls will be heightened as well, but to differing heights — 10 feet and nine inches in right-center, and 12 feet and nine inches in left-center.

As for distances, no changes were made in center field or down the left field/right field line, as those will respectively remain at 400 feet and 328 feet.  However, in left-center, the wall will move in slightly to 368 feet (from 375 feet) and the power alley to 381 feet (from 383 feet).

In right-center, there is an even more drastic move to 359 feet (again down from 375) with power alley of 372 feet (from 383).  The changes in right field are due to two of the renovation’s most prominent new features — a large fan pavilion and dining area, providing spectators with a new views of both the field and a newly-designed visitors’ bullpen.

Last winter’s renovations at Camden Yards are a recent example of how a ballpark can be significantly altered by a dimension change, as one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly stadiums became a lot more pitcher-friendly once the left field wall was heightened and pushed back almost 30 feet.  Rogers Centre has also traditionally been somewhat more favorable to hitters, and in theory, the generally shorter dimensions might further help batters (particularly left-handed hitters), while fly-ball pitchers could see a few more home runs sail out of the yard on balls that would’ve previously been caught.  That said, the larger walls should also curb a true offensive explosion.

“It was critical to understand how any modifications would impact play, so where the walls come in, heights go up to offset significant changes,” Marnie Starkman, Blue Jays executive VP of business operations, said in a statement to media.  “Our team modelled these adjustments, and we anticipate they will create a similar neutral environment while providing a modernized experience for our fans.”

As Matheson notes, the Jays’ acquisitions of Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier this offseason were surely influenced by the outfield’s different look.  The Blue Jays already wanted to upgrade its glovework in general this winter, but having two excellent defensive outfielders in this newly-shaped outfield should help the club as it figures out exactly how these new dimensions will translate to on-field action.

Latest On Market For Left-Handed Relievers

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With less than three weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, most of the top free agents have already signed with clubs for the upcoming season. One segment of the market that’s been strangely quiet, however, is left-handed relief. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton are some of the noteworthy southpaws still unattached, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rangers, Angels, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs and Mets are interested in their services.

Those three relievers bring varying levels of appeal to the interested clubs. Britton, 35, was arguably the best reliever in the league for an extended stretch though he entered free agency on a down note after a couple of seasons lost to injury. Moore, 34 in June, is in effectively the opposite position of Britton, as he has a lengthy track record of disappointing results but hit the open market on the upswing. Chafin, 33 in June, has been fairly consistent in recent years, apart from a small-sample blip in the shortened 2020 season.

Britton posted an incredible 1.84 ERA over a seven-year stretch from 2014 to 2020, thanks to a bowling ball sinker that bordered on unhittable. He got grounders on a ludicrous 76.2% of balls in play over that time, almost double a typical league average of about 43%. He was limited to just 18 1/3 innings in 2021 before requiring surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. During that procedure, it was determined that he would also need Tommy John surgery, which put him out of action until late in 2022. He did make it back to the hill last year but his velocity was down and his control was all over the place. He finished the season on the injured list for shoulder fatigue. He would be a risky acquisition at this point given his uncertain health but he recently held a showcase for clubs and will surely entice one of them to take a gamble based on his previous excellence.

Moore was once one of the top prospects in the game and seemed like a rotation building block for the Rays a decade ago. However, Tommy John surgery in 2014 put him out of action for an extended stretch and he struggled once back on the mound. He bounced around to various different clubs for years, including a stint in Japan, but never really got things back on track. But a full-time move to the bullpen last year has seemingly given him a second act, as he posted a 1.95 ERA over 74 innings for the Rangers. His 12.5% walk rate was certainly concerning, but he also struck out 27.3% of batters faced and got grounders at a healthy 43.9% clip.

Chafin has posted a 3.05 ERA from 2017 to the present, even with his rough 2020 campaign. He’s been even better recently, with a 2.29 ERA over the past couple of seasons, striking out 25.7% of batters faced, walking just 7.5% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.9% clip.

All three pitchers will surely interest clubs to some degree but Rosenthal hears from one executive that the Matt Strahm signing has slowed things down. The Phillies signed him to a two-year, $15MM deal back in December, despite a somewhat shaky track record. He got some good results in his first few seasons, working mostly in relief but with the occasional start. He had an unusual season with the Padres in 2019 as he attempted to become a starter. He made 16 starts that year but posted a 5.29 ERA in that role against a 3.27 mark in 30 relief appearances. Back in the bullpen in 2020, he registered a 2.61 ERA in the shortened season but only got into six games in 2021 due to various injuries. He bounced back with the Red Sox in 2022 with a 3.83 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 36.8% ground ball rate. Each of Moore and Chafin are coming off a stronger 2022 season than Strahm while Britton has a more impressive career overall. Strahm is younger than the rest of them but not by too much, having recently turned 31. Perhaps the free agents are trying to match or top the $15MM guarantee that Strahm secured and has yet to convince a team to pull the trigger on that.

Despite lingering on the market, it doesn’t seem like there’s any shortage of interest. Just about any team with designs on contending could fit another arm into their bullpen and it seems like they’re all keeping tabs here. The Rangers’ southpaw contingent took a blow recently as Brett Martin required shoulder surgery and will likely miss most of the upcoming campaign. They still have Brock Burke, Taylor Hearn and John King in the mix but it wouldn’t hurt to bolster that group. The Angels have Aaron Loup and José Quijada lined up as their primary southpaw relievers but Loup is now 35 and Quijada has control issues. The Astros are a fairly logical fit since their only lefty relievers on the 40-man are Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski, both of whom have fairly limited track records.

The Red Sox have Joely Rodríguez as their only obvious southpaw reliever, though Chris Sale or James Paxton could move from the rotation at some point since they have each hardly pitched in the past three years. Their various injuries have severely limited their innings recently and they might struggle to handle a starter’s workload for a full season. The Jays have Tim Mayza and Matt Gage as left-handed options in their relief corps, though Yusei Kikuchi spent some time there last year after getting bumped from the rotation, a situation that could play out again this year.

The Brewers have Hoby Milner as their most straightforward lefty reliever, though Wade Miley and Aason Ashby could spend some time there if they get nudged out of a crowded rotation. The Cardinals have Genesis Cabrera slated to be the go-to guy but their other choices are optionable and have limited experience, including Packy Naughton, JoJo Romero and Zack Thompson. The Cubs make a lot of sense for adding a lefty reliever, as they currently only have Brandon Hughes on the 40, who could be in line for a closer’s role as opposed to a situational lefty job.

The Yankees recently let Lucas Luetge go, designating him for assignment and flipping him to Atlanta. That has left Wandy Peralta as the club’s only option from the left side in their bullpen. Adding even a modest contract to their books might be an issue, however, as they are reportedly concerned about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.

The interest of the Mets might be complicated as well, as Rosenthal reports that they are hesitant to add another out-of-options pitcher to the mix and reduce their roster flexibility. All players with more than five years of service time cannot be optioned without their consent, meaning that all of these veterans are in that category. None of Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson or Brooks Raley can be optioned to the minors either.

For clubs that miss out on Chafin, Britton and Moore, some of the other lefties still available include Will Smith, Brad Hand and Justin Wilson.

Blue Jays, Wynton Bernard Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Blue Jays are signing outfielder Wynton Bernard to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The 32-year-old will be in big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

Bernard has spent over a decade in the professional ranks. Initially a 35th-round pick of the Padres in 2012, the Niagara product landed with the Tigers on a minor league deal a couple seasons later. He’s typically hit well enough in the minors to continue to find opportunities, landing subsequent depth roles with the Giants, Cubs and Rockies. He continued to bide his time in search of an MLB look.

At long last, he earned that desired call late last summer. Bernard had mashed at a .333/.387/.590 clip through 108 games with the Rox’s top affiliate in Albuquerque, connecting on 21 home runs and stealing 30 bases in 35 tries. The Rockies brought him up in mid-August, where he got some limited runtime in the outfield. He appeared in 12 MLB games, hitting .286/.286/.310 over his first 42 trips to the plate. Colorado ran him through outright waivers at the end of the year, sending him back to minor league free agency.

While it was a brief first MLB call, it no doubt served as some vindication for the San Diego native. Bernard’s 2022 showing was aided to some extent by the Pacific Coast League’s extremely hitter-friendly environment, but he’s typically performed at an above-average level throughout his time in the minors. He’s a career .289/.350/.424 minor league hitter, sporting a .273/.328/.435 mark through parts of six Triple-A campaigns.

Bernard is an excellent runner who’s capable of covering all three outfield spots. He’ll slot in behind Nathan Lukes — who was added to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason — as a speed/defense depth outfielder. Bernard figures to open the season with Triple-A Buffalo. He still has two option years remaining, so the Jays would be able to shuttle him between Toronto and Buffalo if he claims a 40-man spot at any point.

Scott Rolen Elected Into Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that third baseman Scott Rolen has been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. He is the only player inducted by the BBWAA in this year’s election cycle. He will be inducted alongside first baseman Fred McGriff, who was previously elected by the Era Committee.

Rolen received 76.3% of the vote, just above the 75% required for induction. A few players just under that line were Todd Helton at 72.2%, Billy Wagner at 68.1% and Andruw Jones at 58.1%. Here are the full results, per the BBWAA.

A native of Indiana, Rolen was selected by the Phillies in the second round of the 1993 draft. He made his way up to the majors and debuted in 1996 when he was just 21 years old. He hit at a below-average rate in that 37-game debut but he truly broke out the next year. In 1997, he hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases en route to a batting line of .283/.377/.469. That production was 21% better than the league average hitter that year, as evidenced by his 121 wRC+. He was crowned the National League Rookie of the Year for that campaign.

Rolen would go on to contribute in similar fashion for the Phillies over the next few seasons. He hit between 25 and 34 homers in each season from 1998 to 2004 while also swiping at least eight bases in all but the last season of that stretch. His excellent third base defense started to be recognized during this period as well, as he won a Gold Glove award in 1998. That was the first of eight such awards he would eventually win.

That period included a trade to the Cardinals in 2002, a team for whom he would have some of his best seasons. The standout season of his career was 2004, where Rolen went deep 34 times and produced a batting line of .314/.409/.598. His wRC+ was 159 and his stellar defense led to him racking up 9.0 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations at FanGraphs. Only Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were able to best him in terms of fWAR that year. Bonds took home the National League Most Valuable Player award that year with Rolen in fourth place in the voting, also trailing Beltre and Albert Pujols.

In 2005, he played just 56 games before injuring his shoulder and eventually requiring season-ending surgery. He got back on track in 2006 with another strong season, hitting 22 home runs and producing at an above-average level. The Cards won the National League Central division and eventually went on to win the World Series over the Tigers. Rolen played one more season in St. Louis but was traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2008 season. He spent a season and a half in Toronto before getting dealt to the Reds, where he played out the remainder of his career. Over 17 MLB seasons, he hit 316 home runs, scored 1,211 runs, drove in 1,287, and stole 118 bases. He made seven All-Star teams, won eight Gold Gloves, a Rookie of the Year award and a World Series.

In 2018, he appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. He garnered 10.2% of the vote, well below the 75% threshold for admittance but well above the 5% minimum required to stay on the ballot. His vote share grew to 17.2%, 35.3%, 52.9% and 63.2% in the subsequent years, finally getting over the hump here in 2023. MLBTR congratulates him on his induction.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: No "Conversations Yet" With Blue Jays About Extension

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays “haven’t had the conversations yet” this winter about a multi-year extension, the slugger tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters.  Guerrero didn’t sound overly concerned about the lack of talks, saying “I’m going to stay focused on working hard and let my team take care of that.”  The idea of a long-term deal between Guerrero and the Jays has been a topic essentially since Guerrero arrived in the majors as baseball’s top prospect, and though the first baseman is heading into his fifth MLB season, the clock isn’t yet ticking too loudly on Guerrero’s team control.  Toronto still has arbitration control over Guerrero through the 2025 season, and the two sides already worked out a contract for Guerrero for 2023, as he’ll earn $14.5MM for the coming year.

With Guerrero set to become a free agent prior to his age-27 season, this relatively early entry into the market likely means a particularly large payday is awaiting the first baseman — whether from another team, or in the form of an extension from the Blue Jays to lock Guerrero up as the face of the franchise.  As Davidi notes, the massive longer-term contracts handed out this winter undoubtedly caught the attention of both the Jays and Guerrero’s representatives, and now both sides may have a better view of what it might cost the Blue Jays to retain Guerrero’s services.  Since most extension talks usually don’t begin until deeper into Spring Training, it will be interesting to watch if Guerrero and the Jays have any substantive negotiations, or if any real progress is made towards an extension.

David Phelps Announces Retirement

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Right-hander David Phelps is retiring, he announced this evening through his agents at Wasserman (Twitter link). Phelps thanked his former teammates, coaches, medical staff, agency and family as well as all the organizations for which he played in a lengthy statement.

A Notre Dame product, Phelps cracked the professional ranks a 14th-round selection of the Yankees in 2008. A few seasons of strong minor league performance garnered him some prospect attention as a potential back-end starter. He reached the big leagues for the first time in April 2012, kicking off a rookie season in which he’d post a 3.34 ERA through 99 2/3 innings. Phelps also pitched three times for New York that postseason, logging 3 1/3 innings in what would prove his only career playoff action.

Phelps started 11 of 33 outings for New York that year and held a similar swing role for the next couple seasons. For the first three seasons of his career, he’d toss 299 1/3 innings with the Yankees over 87 appearances (40 starts). He posted a cumulative 4.21 ERA while holding opponents to a .251/.330/.399 slash. Over the 2014-15 offseason, New York dealt Phelps and infielder Martín Prado to the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Jones and then Low-A pitcher Domingo Germán, who’s still a Yankee more than eight years later.

During his first season with the Fish, Phelps remained primarily a rotation member. He started 19 of 23 outings, working to a 4.50 ERA. By his second season in South Florida, he’d moved almost exclusively to relief. That kicked off a second act as a generally reliable bullpen arm. Phelps posted a 2.28 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout percentage over 86 2/3 innings in 2016. After throwing another 47 frames with a 3.45 ERA in the next season’s first half, he changed organizations for a second time.

The Mariners acquired Phelps in a deadline deal that sent four prospects to Miami. Three of those players never reached the big leagues, but the Marlins’ acquisition of then High-A righty Pablo López turned out exceptionally well. The trade wasn’t especially successful for the Mariners, as Phelps pitched just 10 times before suffering an injury to his throwing elbow. He first underwent surgery to remove bone chips from the joint, then unfortunately required a Tommy John reconstruction that cost him the entire 2018 campaign.

Phelps hit free agency for the first time that offseason, landing with the Blue Jays on a buy-low $2.5MM pact. Once he returned to health, he proved a single middle-innings option for Toronto. Phelps performed well in 17 appearances before being traded to the Cubs at the deadline for Tom Hatch. He had a fine second half before again hitting free agency when Chicago declined a club option for 2020.

The past three seasons have seen the Missouri native continue to bounce around the league. He signed a one-year guarantee with Milwaukee going into 2020 and was dealt to the Phillies for a trio of minor league pitchers at the deadline. Phelps was hit hard in his limited time with Philadelphia, leading the club to decline an option. He returned to Toronto on a one-year deal over the offseason and got off to a brilliant start through mid-May.

Injuries again intervened, though, as Phelps suffered a rupture of his right lat. That required season-ending surgery, one which Phelps acknowledged he initially believed would end his career. He was fortunately able to rehab and got another shot on a minor league deal with Toronto last offseason. He cracked the MLB roster out of camp for what’d be his third season as a Blue Jay.

Phelps would conclude his career with a flourish. He stayed healthy all year, a significant accomplishment in its own right given the injury he’d suffered the season before. Phelps posted his best numbers since his Miami days, providing the Jays 63 2/3 innings of 2.83 ERA ball through 65 appearances. That’d quite likely have earned him another MLB contract this winter if he wanted to return for an 11th season. Phelps indicated he’d known by the end of last season he was finished playing, however.

He spent a decade and a half in the professional ranks, including the past 10 years at the MLB level. Over 682 2/3 career frames, he posted a 3.80 ERA while striking out 22.9% of opposing hitters. In addition to his 67 starts, he finished out 45 games (including seven saves). Phelps held 78 leads as a middle reliever or setup option, suiting up for seven organizations. Baseball Reference calculated his career earnings a hair above $15MM. MLBTR congratulates Phelps on a long and accomplished career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Blue Jays Outright Junior Fernandez

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The Blue Jays announced that reliever Junior Fernández has gone unclaimed on waivers. He’s been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo. He’d been designated for assignment last week after Toronto finalized the acquisition of starter Zach Thompson from Pittsburgh.

Fernández has bounced around a bit over the past few months. Initially an amateur signee of the Cardinals in 2014, he’d spent his entire career in the St. Louis organization until being designated for assignment last September. Fernández landed with the division-rival Pirates on waivers and finished the 2022 season there, making three appearances down the stretch. At season’s end, Pittsburgh designated him for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for prospects they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft.

The 25-year-old then landed with the Yankees and Blue Jays on successive waiver claims. His stay on the Toronto 40-man lasted less than a week, with Fernández claimed on January 5 and DFA five days later. Now that Toronto has succeeded in running him through waivers, he’ll remain in the organization as upper minors depth. Fernández has never previously been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service time, meaning he doesn’t have the ability to elect minor league free agency.

Fernández has appeared at the MLB level in parts of the last four seasons. The righty has thrown 54 innings across 50 outings, compiling a 5.17 ERA. He’s induced grounders on nearly half the batted balls he’s allowed but paired that with a mediocre 18.7% strikeout percentage and lofty 13.9% walk rate.

While he’s yet to find much consistent success, it’s easy to see why multiple teams have given Fernández a look over the past few months. He averaged 98.7 MPH on his sinker and 88.9 MPH on his slider during his 16 big league outings last year. That velocity hasn’t translated into many strikeouts but has gotten a decent number of swings and misses; opponents have whiffed at 13.5% of the pitches he’s thrown throughout his MLB career, a rate that’s roughly two points higher than average.

Fernández figures to get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training. Assuming he doesn’t break camp with the big league team, he’ll report to Buffalo. Owner of a 4.12 ERA and quality 27% strikeout rate through 83 career Triple-A innings, he’ll be an interesting bullpen depth flier for the Jays. He is out of minor league option years, however. That means if the Jays promote him to the majors at any point, they’ll either have to keep him in the big leagues or again make him available to other teams via trade or waivers.

Cubs Claim Julian Merryweather, Designate Manuel Rodríguez

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The Cubs have claimed right-hander Julian Merryweather off waivers from the Blue Jays, reports Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Merryweather had been designated for assignment by the Jays last week. In a corresponding move, fellow righty Manuel Rodríguez has been designated for assignment.

Merryweather, 31, was drafted by Cleveland but went to the Blue Jays in the 2018 trade that saw Josh Donaldson go the other way. He has pitched in each of the past three MLB seasons, flashing elite velocity on his fastball, which has averaged in the 96-98 mph range in each of those campaigns.

Despite that blazing speed, Merryweather hasn’t had good results so far. He struck out 27.3% of batters faced in 2020 but saw that number drop to 21.8% and 19.3% in the past two seasons. That coincided with an increase in his ERA, going from 4.15 to 4.85 and 6.75 in the most recent season. In addition to those struggles, health is an ongoing concern. Though he pitched over 40 innings in 2022, the previous four years each saw him fall short of 20 frames.

Merryweather’s been much better in the minors, such as pitching 14 1/3 scoreless innings at Triple-A last year with a 32.7% strikeout rate. However, he’s now out of options and the Cubs will have to keep him on their active roster or else send him into DFA limbo again. If they can help him turn his huge velocity into better results, they can keep him around for many seasons via arbitration since Merryweather has just over two years of MLB service time.

In adding one flamethrower, the Cubs are risking losing another. Rodríguez, 26, averaged 97.2 mph on his sinker in 2021 and 95.9 mph last year. But like Merryweather, he hasn’t turned that into punchouts, striking out just 17.1% of batters faced in 31 1/3 major league innings thus far. He has gotten ground balls at a solid 53.2% clip but has also given free passes to 15% of batters faced.

The Cubs will now have a week to trade Rodríguez or pass him through waivers. He still has one option year remaining and just over a year of service time. Given his youth and potent velocity, he could find interest from other clubs that are looking for some pitching depth.

Boras: Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins “Were Really After” Xander Bogaerts

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Xander Bogaerts’ first visit to free agency resulted in an 11-year, $280MM deal with the Padres that greatly exceeded projections, even for a player who was expected to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.  Agent Scott Boras discussed some of the twists and turns of Bogaerts’ free agent trip with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Boras identified that Bogaerts was San Diego’s second choice, once Trea Turner rejected a reported $342MM offer from the Padres.

Once Turner turned down the Padres’ offer to sign with the Phillies, “we kind of knew the Padres’ guy was Bogaerts,” Boras said.  “They wanted that personality, that leadership in that locker room.”  Left unspoken by Boras was the fact that the Padres were clearly itching to land a big target of some kind, even to the point of considering a $400MM bid for Aaron Judge.  With Judge and Turner off the board, the Padres may have been more willing to go above and beyond to sign Bogaerts, and ensure that their offseason endeavors would include at least one superstar name.

The Red Sox reportedly made a last-ditch effort to sign Bogaerts in the hours preceding his deal with San Diego, though Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom later downplayed the chances that a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox was becoming a possibility.  There were mixed signals from Boston’s ownership and front office all season long about the franchise’s willingness to retain Bogaerts, and from Boras’ perspective, the Red Sox weren’t ever a major bidder.

“It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was,” Boras said.  “They probably made a decision they were going to sign [Rafael] Devers, and were going to pay only one of them.  So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston.”

Sure enough, the Red Sox indeed ended up extending Devers, while Bogaerts landed in San Diego.  As for other teams in the hunt, such teams as the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants were all linked to Bogaerts at various points in the offseason, even if some of these pursuits were perhaps more cursory than others.  Boras implied that three teams in particular (beyond the Padres) separated themselves from the pack, saying that “Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after” Bogaerts’ services.

The Cubs and Twins were already known to be Bogaerts’ suitors, and as both clubs were monitoring the high-end shortstop market and eventually came away with two of the winter’s top options at the position — Chicago signed Dansby Swanson, while Minnesota (eventually) reunited with Carlos Correa.  The Twins’ interest in Bogaerts was framed as a backup plan if Correa signed elsewhere, though Bogaerts ended up signing with the Padres before Correa agreed to his initial deal with the Giants.  As for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote that the team gave some consideration to the idea of signing both Bogaerts and Swanson, with Bogaerts playing third base in that blockbuster scenario.

It makes for some fascinating “what-if” material, since neither the Twins or the Cubs were previously considered top candidates to sign Bogaerts.  However, the Blue Jays’ involvement is perhaps the most interesting, as Toronto hadn’t previously been linked to Bogaerts or any of the top shortstops whatsoever.  While the aggressive Jays are known to be a team that routinely checks in on most free agents as a matter of due diligence, Toronto’s focus was known to be on the club’s greater needs in the outfield and in the rotation.  Such names as Justin Verlander, Brandon Nimmo, and Kodai Senga were among the many players linked to the Blue Jays, and Toronto has thus far signed Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt, while Daulton Varsho and Erik Swanson were respectively acquired in major trades with the Diamondbacks and Mariners that saw Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernandez change uniforms.

These moves have sent the Jays’ payroll to franchise-record heights, and set the team up to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the first time.  So in that sense, making a splash to sign Bogaerts wouldn’t have been out of line with the Blue Jays’ spending habits, even if obviously landing Bogaerts would have entirely changed the scope of Toronto’s offseason.

First and foremost, the Blue Jays already have a star shortstop in Bo Bichette, who is only entering his age-25 season and already amassed two top-12 finishes in AL MVP voting, an All-Star nod, and 9.6 fWAR in 2021-22.  (For comparison, Bogaerts had 10.4 fWAR in 2021-22.)  Bichette’s success at the plate, however, was tempered by a rather drastic defensive decline in 2022, as public metrics placed Bichette among the league’s worst defensive players.  Ironically, Bogaerts’ glovework had long been a source of controversy, but he quelled some doubts over his viability as a shortstop by delivering the best defensive season of his career in 2022.

Had the Jays signed Bogaerts, they could’ve installed him at shortstop and moved Bichette to second base, and then used the current collection of second-base options (i.e. Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Whit Merrifield) either purely as depth options or as trade chips.  Since Matt Chapman is a free agent after the 2023 season, the Blue Jays might’ve considered moving Bogaerts to third base at that point and returning Bichette to shortstop, if Chapman wasn’t retained.  Or, if signing Bogaerts would’ve taken up much or all of Toronto’s payroll space, the Blue Jays might have been considered trading Bichette in order to address other needs.  If the Jays hadn’t had the money to sign a Bassitt-level starter, for instance, Bichette could have been shopped to land a front-of-the-rotation arm.

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