Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras’ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.
Blue Jays Rumors
Blue Jays “Remain Engaged” On Justin Verlander’s Market
Justin Verlander strongly considered joining the Blue Jays last winter, to the point that the Jays may have been the runner-up to the Astros in the race to sign the future Hall-of-Famer. Toronto’s interest is still active a year later, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes that the Jays “remain engaged with” Verlander in the right-hander’s latest trip to the open market.
After a Cy Young Award-winning season, Verlander’s price tag has naturally gone up. Verlander landed a two-year, $50MM deal from the Astros last offseason despite missing virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and even though 2022 was Verlander’s age-39 season. Still, Verlander was more than worth the investment, as he posted one of the finest years of his incredible career and helped lead Houston to a World Series championship.
With his 40th birthday approaching in February, Verlander is reportedly looking for a three-year deal worth roughly $130MM, akin to the deal Max Scherzer received from the Mets when Scherzer was entering his age-37 campaign (Scherzer turned 38 last July). The Scherzer deal represents the highest annual average value for any contract in baseball history, so speculatively, it would seem likely that Verlander and his representatives would want to top that AAV even if by just a bit, in order to set a new benchmark.
It’s a steep asking price for any team to meet, even if Verlander is a unique case as an all-time great who is still pitching at an elite level this late into his career. Such a large AAV is a risk for a player who will be in action only once every five days, and if Verlander gets hurt or has any kind of performance dropoff, the contract could quickly start to look like an albatross.
Spending that much on Verlander would also set a new standard for the Blue Jays, whose payroll is already at a record high for the franchise. Adding a $43MM-ish salary to the ledger would also put the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in club history — Roster Resource projects Toronto’s current tax number at slightly over $201MM, so a big AAV for Verlander would send the Blue Jays well over the initial $233MM tax threshold.
As Davidi puts it, signing Verlander “may very well cut [the Jays] off from other significant moves.” That is no small matter for a team that several other needs to be addressed beyond the rotation, even if starting pitching is Toronto’s top need. The Jays could use some more outfield depth after trading Teoscar Hernandez, second base is a somewhat unsettled area, and the bullpen could use some more reinforcement even after the addition of Erik Swanson from the Mariners in the Hernandez swap. If ownership did allow the front office to spend up to the tax threshold, it can be argued that the extra money would be better served being spent on multiple players, rather than a single superstar in Verlander.
All this to be said, signing Verlander would still make some baseball sense for the obvious boost he’d bring to the pitching staff. Verlander, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman would become arguably the top rotation trio in the sport, Jose Berrios would be an overqualified fourth starter if he can regain his form after a mediocre 2022 season, and the Jays might feel better about Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White battling over one starting spot than entrusting two spots in the rotation to question marks. If payroll or roster needs are a concern, the Jays could look to cut some salary in other areas, plus Toronto could still trade from its catching depth to acquire more talent.
Fred McGriff Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame
Longtime first baseman Fred McGriff was inducted to the Baseball Hall of Fame, the only player elected out of the eight nominees under consideration by the 16-person Era Committee. McGriff was a unanimous vote, getting votes from all 16 members.
Twelve votes were required for selection, and of the other seven players on the ballot, Don Mattingly came closest with eight votes. Curt Schilling received seven votes, Dale Murphy six votes, and the other candidates (Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro) each got fewer than four votes.
McGriff hit .284/.377/.509 with 493 home runs over his career, which spanned 19 seasons (1986-2004) with the Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Rays, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Crime Dog’s impressive resume included a World Series ring with the 1995 Braves, as well as the individual honors of five All-Star appearances, three Silver Slugger awards, and six top-10 finishes in MVP voting. McGriff’s highest finish in the MVP race was fourth, during a 1993 season split between San Diego and Atlanta.
The Yankees actually drafted McGriff in the ninth round in 1981, but he was dealt to the Blue Jays in 1982 as part of a trade that longtime Bronx fans still remember with regret — ironically, Mattingly’s presence as the Yankees’ first baseman of the future was one of the reasons New York was comfortable in dealing McGriff. Blossoming as a star in Toronto, McGriff nevertheless found himself dealt to the Padres almost exactly 32 years ago to the day, in one of baseball’s most memorable blockbuster trades. The Jays moved McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter, in a swap that set the table for Toronto’s World Series titles in 1992 and 1993.
The Padres’ own hopes of contention faded, and McGriff was one of many notables dealt during a fire sale in 1993. The first baseman became one of the stalwarts of the Braves’ success throughout the 1990’s, and enjoyed some championship success himself with Atlanta’s 1995 title. Over his career in the postseason, McGriff continued to swing a mighty bat, hitting .303/.385/.532 with 10 homers over 218 PA in the playoffs.
McGriff then joined the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 1998, with the Tampa native getting a chance to play in his hometown. Over five seasons with the Devil Rays and then in brief stints with the Cubs and Dodgers, McGriff was still at least an above-average hitter until well into his late 30’s, before finally starting to slow down with L.A. in 2003 and then a final season with Tampa Bay in 2004.
Though McGriff was a staple of any “professional hitter” discussion, he was also somewhat underrated during his career, perhaps owing to the fact that he played for several teams during his career rather than becoming an iconic figure for one particular franchise. The 1994-95 players’ strike was also often cited as a reason for McGriff’s lack of Cooperstown recognition, as those lost games surely cost McGriff the chance of surpassing the 500-homer threshold, leaving him with “only” 493 big flies.
These may have been reasons why McGriff never came close to the 75% voting threshold required for induction via the writers. It also didn’t help that McGriff had the bad luck of being up for election amidst a crowded era for candidates, including several players dogged by PED suspicions or other off-the-field issues — including Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, and Schilling.
The “veterans committee” is the catch-all name for an annual panel of rotating membership, organized by the Hall Of Fame every year to gauge the cases of players who weren’t elected or considered by the writers, or non-playing personnel who aren’t a part of the writers’ ballot. Candidates are considered from the “Contemporary Baseball” (1980-present) and “Classic Baseball” (1980 and earlier) time periods, and broken down into a three-year rotation…
- Contemporary Baseball, players: 2022, 2025, 2028, etc.
- Contemporary Baseball, managers/executives/umpires: 2023, 2026, 2029, etc.
- Classic Baseball, all candidates: 2024, 2027, 2030, etc.
As such, the seven players who weren’t voted in on this year’s ballot will have to wait until December 2025 to receive another look, and it isn’t necessarily a guarantee that any of those seven will even make the 2025 shortlist. However, since several of the names on the veterans committee change every year, it is quite possible that a HOF candidate who missed out this time might be regarded more favorably by a future committee.
That being said, the rather drastic lack of support for Bonds and Clemens on this ballot might be a strong hint that it will be some time before the hard feelings dissipate over the two superstars’ alleged use of PEDs. While Bonds and Clemens weren’t inducted by the writers, their final year on the ballot saw them each obtain at least 65% of the vote, falling respectably close to that 75% threshold. Likewise, Palmeiro (who was suspended for PED usage in 2005) lasted only four years on the writers’ ballot before falling off, and was perhaps even a surprise candidate for inclusion on this year’s Contemporary Baseball shortlist. Schilling’s history of inflammatory and controversial public statements and tweets also stalled his support from the writers, and his first appearance on an Era Committee also saw him fall well short of induction.
It also seems possible that the overwhelming show of support for McGriff was also something of a repudiation of the PED era. McGriff, Mattingly, and Murphy were seen as the most controversy-free candidates on this particular eight-player ballot, with no ties to PEDs or other off-the-field issues. Though McGriff’s power numbers were impressive in their own right, the overwhelming homer totals posted by some of McGriff’s peers in the late 90’s and early 2000’s had the effect of making his numbers look lesser in comparison, which may have been another reason why McGriff never quite got his full due either during his career or on the writers’ ballot.
McGriff will be inducted into Cooperstown on July 23. He will be joined by any players elected via the writers’ ballot, and those results will be announced on January 24.
This year’s 16-person Contemporary Baseball committee was comprised of Angels owner Arte Moreno, former Blue Jays president Paul Beeston, Twins president/CEO Dave St. Peter, Diamondbacks president/CEO Derrick Hall, White Sox executive VP Ken Williams, Marlins GM Kim Ng, former Red Sox/Cubs front office boss Theo Epstein, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, longtime statistician and broadcaster Steve Hirdt, and Hall-of-Fame players Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas and Alan Trammell. Chipper Jones was initially supposed to be part of the committee, but couldn’t participate due to illness and was replaced by Hall.
Blue Jays Are Taking Patient Approach To Catching Trade Market
Sean Murphy stands at the center of the offseason trade market for catchers, and the Oakland star is drawing plenty of interest. The Guardians, White Sox, Rays, Red Sox, Cardinals and even the Braves have all been linked to him recently, but the A’s are just one of two teams widely expected to trade a catcher this winter. The Blue Jays, who have a trio of Major League-caliber catchers on the roster — Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno — are also pondering the possibility of trading from that depth to address areas of need on the roster.
A trade involving one of the Toronto backstops, however, might not come together particularly quickly. In writing about the Twins’ desire to add to their catching corps, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported this week the Jays appear to be intent on waiting until some of the top names on the free-agent market have signed before they begin more earnestly engaging in talks with teams that miss out on their top targets. Jansen, with two years of club control remaining (as opposed to Kirk’s four and Moreno’s six), is the most logical trade option of the trio, but all three should draw considerable interest and prompt offers of some extent.
It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that one offer could accelerate the Jays’ willingness to make a deal, so even if their current preference is to let the market play out, that’s not a guarantee they’ll wait until Willson Contreras, Christian Vazquez and perhaps Murphy all have new teams before making a swap.
Cardinals, Braves Among Teams That Have Spoken To A’s About Sean Murphy
A’s catcher Sean Murphy stands as one of the likeliest trade candidates of the offseason, and Oakland is unsurprisingly receiving a fairly wide array of interest in the former Gold Glover. The Cardinals have spoken to the A’s about Murphy, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. They’ve also spoken to the Blue Jays about their catching surplus (Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno), per the report.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that even the Braves — a team ostensibly set behind the plate — have checked in with the A’s about the potential asking price. Murphy has also been linked to the Guardians, White Sox, Rays and Red Sox since the offseason began, and there are assuredly others reaching out to the A’s to throw their hat into the mix.
The Cardinals stand as arguably the most obvious on-paper suitor for Murphy. Franchise icon Yadier Molina has formally retired after a 19-year career, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been candid about his team’s interest in acquiring a new starting catcher. Backup Andrew Knizner is a .204/.292/.288 hitter in parts of four seasons and thus not likely to step into the starter’s role, and while the Cardinals have a promising young prospect in Ivan Herrera, they’re also a win-now club looking to make the most of the remaining prime years of MVP Paul Goldschmidt and third-place finisher Nolan Arenado.
Much of the same logic would apply to a Cardinals pursuit of a Toronto backstop. Jansen is the most heavily speculated target of the bunch, given that he’s “only” controllable for another two seasons, compared to four for Kirk and six for Moreno, but any catching-hungry team would have varying levels of interest in the whole trio. Goold notes that the Jays have been looking for a young, left-handed-hitting outfielder, which the Cards do possess in Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson. To this point, there’s no indication that talks with either Oakland or Toronto have meaningfully advanced.
Turning to the Braves and Murphy, it’s not as clean a fit, nor is it a surprise to see Rosenthal characterize the chances of an actual deal manifesting as “slim.” That said, it’s easy enough to see how Murphy, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.5MM in his first arbitration season and is controlled through 2025, would still appeal to Atlanta.
William Contreras’ breakout season at the plate (.278/.354/.506, 20 homers in 376 plate appearances) clearly put him on the map as a potential long-term option, but Contreras’ defensive contributions were far more suspect. He posted negative framing marks according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and his 14% caught-stealing rate was among the worst in the league. In 955 big league innings behind the plate, Contreras has posted a rather unsightly -11 Defensive Runs Saved.
That’s not to say Atlanta should or would (in the event of a long-shot Murphy acquisition) move on from Contreras, of course. He has more than enough bat to spend considerable time at designated hitter, and the Braves have experimented with getting him some work in the outfield corners. Speculatively speaking, there’d be room to carry Contreras, Murphy and a third catcher, allowing Murphy to take the bulk of the work and Contreras to rotate between DH, catcher and perhaps some corner outfield work.
The Braves have both Travis d’Arnaud and Manny Pina signed through the 2023 season, and they hold a 2024 option on d’Arnaud. Pina played in just five games after signing a two-year, $8MM contract, however, as a wrist injury required season-ending surgery early in the year. Rosenthal suggests that the Braves have gotten some trade interest in Pina this offseason, despite that injury. The 35-year-old has long been a light hitter, but his glovework is well regarded. A team looking for a glove-first backup could certainly consider Pina an intriguing option.
A trade of Murphy to Atlanta feels like far more of a long shot than a conventional fit like the ones in St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa Bay or Boston, but the mere fact that the Braves are even pondering the possibility underscores the manner in which Murphy is regarded throughout the league. The 28-year-old hit .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs last season despite playing his home games at the Athletics’ cavernous home park. He slashed .271/.343/.465 on the road. After a so-so start to his 2022 season, Murphy mashed at a .278/.363/.458 slash in his final 409 plate appearances.
By measure of wRC+, Murphy was 22% better than a league-average hitter. Catchers, however, are notoriously below-average hitters on the whole, making Murphy’s contributions all the more impressive. In 2022, the average catcher was 12% worse than the league-average hitter; the gap between Murphy’s bat and that of a garden-variety catcher is enormous.
Adding to the offensive side of his game, Murphy is regarded as a strong defensive backstop. He won a Gold Glove in 2021, has been a plus framer by any publicly available metric, and has nabbed 28% of potential base thieves in his career (including 31% in 2022). That skill set, combined with an affordable 2023 salary and three more seasons of club control, should make him appealing to all but a select few teams with stars entrenched behind the plate. The A’s, squarely in the midst of a rebuild and with prospect Shea Langeliers perhaps ready for a full audition in the Majors, will likely be able command a sizable return for Murphy in the coming weeks or months.
Blue Jays Hire Don Mattingly As Bench Coach
Nov. 30: The Blue Jays announced that Mattingly has been hired as their new bench coach. Candaele will return to his prior role managing the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate.
Nov. 29: The Blue Jays are closing in on a deal to bring in Don Mattingly as their bench coach, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman and Jon Heyman first reported earlier this evening that Mattingly and the Jays were in discussions about a coaching position, which Shi Davidi of Sportsnet specified was for the bench coach vacancy.
Assuming the deal is completed, Mattingly will step right back onto an MLB staff. He’s spent the past 12 years managing, leading the Dodgers from 2011-15 and the Marlins from 2016-22. Towards the end of this past season, Miami and Mattingly announced they’d part ways at the end of the year. The 61-year-old suggested he was open to continued coaching, managerial or front office work at the time, and he’ll indeed jump into another key role.
The Marlins only once qualified for the postseason during Mattingly’s seven-year tenure as manager. Miami was rebuilding for the early portion of that stretch, and it looked as if they’d taken a step forward with a 31-29 showing during the shortened 2020 season to secure a Wild Card berth. Their efforts to build around a developing rotation didn’t lead to continued progress, though, and Miami and Mattingly went their separate ways after 2021-22 seasons with 93 and 95 losses, respectively. The Fish subsequently hired Skip Schumaker away from the Cardinals as manager.
Mattingly will bring a wealth of high-level experience to the bench coach position. That’s surely welcome for 42-year-old John Schneider, who was named Toronto’s manager just prior to the start of the offseason. He’d served in that role in an interim capacity for the final couple months, taking over when the Jays dismissed Charlie Montoyo in July. This’ll be his first full season as a big league manager, though, so it’s sensible to bring in a veteran voice like Mattingly to assist in those decisions.
Schneider entered the 2022 season as Toronto’s bench coach under Montoyo. When he vacated the position to take the lead role, the Jays promoted Triple-A manager Casey Candaele to interim bench coach for the second half. It’s not clear whether Candaele will remain on the MLB staff or is set to head back to the minor leagues in 2023.
The forthcoming bench coach hiring is just one part of what could be a very eventful week for Mattingly. He’s one of eight former players under Hall of Fame consideration by the Era Committee. The six-time All-Star will find out on Sunday whether he’ll be enshrined in Cooperstown in 2023.
Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K – 2022-23 Edition
Last offseason, I tried to find under-the-radar minor league prospects by looking at how much a hitter walked and struck out. Sometimes, these stats can indicate a hitter has a keen eye at the plate which will help them succeed as they move up the minor league ladder. I used Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez as examples of young players who had strong BB/K rates in the minors who then went on to have greater MLB success than many prospect evaluators had projected.
Looking at 2021 stats, I highlighted players who had 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A and a BB/K rate of 1.00 or higher. Did this help us find hidden gems? Let’s look at the results before moving on to this year’s crop. The names on the list were Alejo Lopez, Isaac Paredes, Steven Kwan, Tyler White, Cooper Hummel and Jonah Bride.
Two of these players had breakout years in 2022. Kwan made his MLB debut and had a tremendous season on both sides of the ball. He provided excellent outfield defense and continued his great work at the plate, walking more than he struck out at the major league level. He had a season strong enough he could have won Rookie of the Year honors in another year, but he had to settle for third this year due to an incredible batch of rookie campaigns that also included Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman. The other breakout was Paredes, who was traded to the Rays in April as part of the Austin Meadows deal. He hit 20 home runs in 111 games while posting walk and strikeout rates that were both better than league average. Paredes is less of a hidden gem since he snuck onto the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 in 2019 and 2020, though he had fallen off in the two subsequent seasons. Kwan never made it onto the top 100 and only made the top 30 among Cleveland farmhands for the first time going into 2022, coming in at #27. FanGraphs, it’s worth noting, was far more bullish, slotting Kwan third in the Guardians system and 57th overall heading into the year.
Most of the rest of the group is TBD, as they only got limited MLB appearances. Lopez was frequently optioned and got into 61 games in the majors, still proving very tough to strike out but not doing much damage when he did connect. Hummel struggled in his first 66 games but still hit very well in the minors, walking in 15.4% of his plate appearances and slashing .310/.423/.527. The Mariners must be intrigued by him, since they just traded Kyle Lewis to get him from the Diamondbacks. Bride made his MLB debut and scuffled in 58 games but hit .342/.453/.568 in the minors while still walking more than he struck out. As for White, he was 31 last year and only really plays first base, making it hard for him to carve out a role on a major league team. He started the year in the Brewers’ system but was acquired by the Braves in a midseason trade. Between the Triple-A teams of the two organizations, he had another decent season at the plate, walking in 16% of his appearances while striking out just 20.1% of the time.
Out of six guys highlighted last year, two became MLB regulars, two didn’t immediately hit the ground running but still hit well in the minors and another two were sort of mediocre. It’s not a perfect system but not a bad shorthand, in my opinion. A common theme you will see with the players below is their strike zone discipline often comes with a lack of power. In order to turn this profile into a breakout, that usually means the hitter needs to get stronger or change their approach slightly. In the case of Paredes, he seems to have started selling out more in 2022, as his strikeout rate climbed but so did his isolated power. Kwan didn’t add power, only going deep six times, but his on-base skills were combined with speed and defense to help him be an all-around producer.
If we look at the 2022 numbers, can we find next year’s Kwan or Paredes? Even if that’s setting our sights too high, some of these guys are Rule 5 eligible and could be candidates to be nabbed in next month’s draft. Let’s take a look at the players with a BB/K rate at 1.00 or above with 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2022.
Michael Stefanic, infielder, Angels, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 2.18
Stefanic got 346 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, walking in 13.9% of them while striking out just 6.4% of the time. He didn’t provide much power, however, hitting only four home runs in that time despite playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His final batting line there was .314/.422/.425 for a wRC+ of 122. He also got into 25 major league games without finding much success. It’s a somewhat similar profile to another Angels infielder in David Fletcher. Stefanic was an undrafted free agent, has never been on BA’s top 100 and only cracked the Angels’ top 30 for the first time a year ago. He’ll turn 27 in February.
Nick Dunn, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.50
The Cardinals seem to have a knack for turning their lesser draft picks into solid major leaguers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a couple of them on this list. Dunn was selected in the fifth round in 2018 and has never cracked a BA list of top prospects in the system, though he was mentioned at FanGraphs, where Eric Longenhagen called him “a free-swinging Brendan Donovan — same hair and everything.” In 2022, Dunn got 472 plate appearances and walked 13.3% of the time while striking out at just a 8.9% clip. Similar to Stefanic, it hasn’t resulted in much power, with Dunn only hitting seven long balls on the year, which was a career high. He’ll be 26 in January. He’s eligible to be selected in next month’s Rule 5 draft.
John Nogowski, first base/outfielder, free agent, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.08
Nogowski got some brief MLB looks in 2020 and 2021 and couldn’t do much with them. He split 2022 between Atlanta’s and Washington’s system, getting 483 plate appearances while walking more than he struck out. Similar to the players above him, it didn’t result in much power, as he went deep eight times and produced a batting line of .248/.366/.362. A 34th-round draft pick from 2014, he’s never been on a team prospect list at BA or FanGraphs. He’ll turn 30 in January.
Willians Astudillo, utility player, free agent, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.06
It’s likely that you’re already familiar with “La Tortuga” since he’s appeared in the majors for the past five years and has become a fan favorite. He hardly ever strikes out but also hardly ever walks or goes deep, which is why he’s had trouble sticking in the majors despite incredible bat-to-ball skills. He spent most of this year in Triple-A for the Marlins, hitting very well down there. However, he’s now 31 and hasn’t produced much over 588 career plate appearances in the majors.
Vinnie Pasquantino, first base, Royals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.03
This one is the hardest to call a hidden gem since Pasquantino is already on display. That being said, the 11th round draft pick from 2019 wasn’t a highly-touted prospect until a strong 2021 campaign got him onto the list of top farmhands in the Royals’ system from both BA and FanGraphs going into 2022. He got called up in late June and acclimated to big league pitching immediately. He had already walked more than he struck out at Triple-A in the first half of the year and then did the same in the show. He also went deep 18 times in Triple-A and 10 times in the majors. He only has 298 MLB plate appearances but the signs are pointing to him being the real deal. He just turned 25 last month.
Evan Mendoza, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.00
Another Cardinal, Mendoza was an 11th round draft pick in 2017. In 421 plate appearances this year, his strikeouts and walks came out even at 56. Unfortunately, like some others on this list, his contact wasn’t terribly productive, resulting in a slash line of .247/.348/.325. He did add a speed element to his game recently, though, swiping 15 bags last year and 17 this year. With the new rules coming into play that encourage more baserunning, perhaps his on-base skills will help him prove valuable. He’s never cracked the top 30 prospects in the system at either BA or FanGraphs, though FG did put him at #34 back in 2018. He’s eligible to be selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.
Tanner Morris, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.00
Morris began his year in Double-A, getting 186 plate appearances with matching 16.1% walk and strikeout rates. He hit five homers in that sample while slashing an excellent .312/.430/.468. He got bumped to Triple-A but couldn’t keep things rolling, perhaps due to a .233 BABIP, as he hit .173/.352/.173 in 126 plate appearances there. However, he again posted matching walk and strikeout rates of 19.8%, meaning he finished the year with rates of 17.6% over 312 plate appearances between the two levels. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and got into 15 games, walking 15 times against nine Ks for a batting line of .279/.466/.372. A fifth round pick from 2019, he’s been on the back end of Toronto prospect lists over the past few years. He recently turned 25 and is Rule 5 eligible.
Bryce Windham, catcher, Cubs, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.00
A 32nd round pick of the 2019 draft, Windham got 304 plate appearances at Double-A this year, finishing with walk and strikeout totals of 44, a 14.5% rate for each. It was quite tepid production overall, leading to a batting line of just .202/.322/.289, though his .227 BABIP was well below his previous seasons. He’s never been listed as a top prospect in the system by either BA or FanGraphs. He recently turned 26 and is Rule 5 eligible.
Bellinger Likely To Sign One-Year Deal; Blue Jays Have Expressed Interest
In the months leading up to last week’s non-tender deadline, Cody Bellinger’s status with the Dodgers stood out as perhaps the most fascinating decision among the group, serving as the basis for plenty of spirited debate about whether the former NL MVP would be traded, non-tendered or brought back for one more chance to right the ship in Los Angeles. The Dodgers ultimately made the decision to cut Bellinger loose, making him one of the most intriguing boom-or-bust options on this year’s market — particularly given the scarcity of center fielders.
Agent Scott Boras tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he’s already received multi-year offers for Bellinger — presumably from teams hoping for the chance to secure a player with star potential at what would be a bargain annual value if they’re successfully able to rehabilitate him. However, pointing to Bellinger’s age (27), Boras suggested that he and Bellinger “most likely… don’t want a multi-year [contract].” MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are among the teams to have expressed early interest in Bellinger, adding that they held some trade discussions surrounding Bellinger prior to his non-tender.
There’s good sense to pursuing only contracts that would allow Bellinger to return to the market a year from now. He won’t turn 28 years old until around the 2023 All-Star break, making him the youngest free agent of note this offseason. And although Bellinger has managed just a .193/.256/.355 slash with a 27.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate since Opening Day 2021 — due in no small part to a series of shoulder injuries that culminated in surgery — he’s also a former NL Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player. From 2017-20, he appeared in 506 games and tallied 2083 plate appearances while batting .273/.364/.547 with 123 home runs, a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 12.4% walk rate.
Even amid his recent offensive freefall, Bellinger has remained at least an average center fielder by virtue of any defensive metric, with Statcast offering particularly bullish reviews of his glovework. Statcast pegs Bellinger at eight Outs Above Average over the past two seasons and placed him in the 63rd percentile or better in arm strength, outfielder jump and sprint speed in both 2021 and 2022. Bellinger swiped 14 bags in 17 tries this past season and is 62-for-76 (81.5%) in his big league career.
Boras represents a pair of former All-Star rebound hopefuls under the age of 30 — Bellinger and Michael Conforto — but he’s publicly declared different contractual targets for the pair of outfielders. With regard to Conforto, Boras has spoken about the goal and purported likelihood that he’ll sign a two-year deal with the opportunity to opt out of the contract after one season — similar in concept (although perhaps not in magnitude) to the one fellow client Carlos Rodon inked with the Giants last winter.
That the ostensible preference or goal for Bellinger is to ink a straight one-year deal doesn’t necessarily indicate that no team is willing to put forth a multi-year deal and an opt-out, but it’s nevertheless a notable discrepancy for a pair of rebound candidates with All-Star ceilings. A straight one-year deal would quite likely be more appealing for teams, as any two-year pact with an opt-out carries considerably more downside for the signing club. (The second year on such contracts is typically only in play if the player gets hurt or performs poorly.)
A straight one-year deal for Bellinger gives him the best path to max out his current earning power, relatively limited as it may be, though it also creates the possibility that even if things break right for him, he’ll be saddled with a qualifying offer a year from now. If Bellinger rebounds strongly enough, that’s not likely to be a major detriment to his market as a 28-year-old, but it’s surely something that’s in the back of his mind as he weighs interest. While it’s doubtful he’d necessarily prioritize signing with a club that feels like a playoff long shot, Bellinger might also be more open to doing so, knowing that if he plays well and emerges as a trade candidate, a midseason move could help him dodge that QO entirely. Of course, a lot needs to go right for him to even be in that position.
A potential fit with the Blue Jays is easy enough to see — particularly after the team traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. Signing Bellinger would allow the Jays to slide George Springer from center field to right field while simultaneously adding a left-handed bat to help balance out an extremely right-handed lineup. The 2021-22 version of Bellinger is a major step down from Hernandez offensively, but the Jays would be a better defensive club with this alignment, and the obvious hope would be that a change of scenery would help bring Bellinger’s offense back up closer to its prior heights — even if a full rebound is probably too optimistic.
Vinny Capra Re-Signs With Blue Jays
Infielder Vinny Capra is re-signing with the Blue Jays on a Minor League deal, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. Capra had been non-tendered by the Jays on Friday and had received “strong interest elsewhere” before opting to remain with Toronto, per Murray.
Capra, a 20th-round pick in the 2018 draft, made his MLB debut in early May. He had one hit, two walks, and a strikeout in seven plate appearances before being sent down to Triple-A Buffalo near the end of the month. He had three separate stints on the 7-day IL before undergoing left middle finger tendon surgery in early October and being placed on the 60-day IL.
Despite several injuries, Capra had a productive season at Buffalo, hitting .283/.378/.403 with five homers and six doubles. Perhaps most impressive was his low strikeout rate (13.1%) and high walk rate (13.1%). Capra will likely receive an invite to Spring Training and attempt to earn a spot on the Blue Jays’ bench for the 2023 season.
American League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month. Onto the transactions…
Latest Transactions
- The Mariners announced that they have non-tendered three players: catchers Brian O’Keefe and Luis Torrens, as well as righty Luke Weaver. Weaver was just claimed off waivers from the Royals a few weeks ago but will now become a free agent.
- The White Sox announced three non-tenders: outfielders Adam Engel and Mark Payton, as well as infielder Danny Mendick. Engel is generally considered a strong defensive outfielder but he struggled at the plate in 2022. Mendick played all over the diamond while hitting .289/.343/.443 for a wRC+ of 125.
- The Guardians announced they have non-tendered lefty Anthony Gose and catcher Luke Maile. Gose was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Maile got into 76 games hit at a below-average level with roughly average defensive marks.
- The Angels announced four non-tenders: lefties Jhonathan Diaz and Rob Zastryzny, as well as righties Touki Toussaint and Nash Walters. The latter three names were designated for assignment a few days ago.
- The Rays have non-tendered Ryan Yarbrough, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa designated him for assignment earlier in the week.
- The Blue Jays announced that they have non-tendered outfielders Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer, as well as infielder Vinny Capra. The two former names were designated for assignment a few days ago.
Earlier Moves
- The Athletics announced that they did not tender contracts to three players: right-hander Deolis Guerra, left-hander Jared Koenig and infielder David MacKinnon. Guerra is the most seasoned of the trio, having made his MLB debut back in 2015 and made 136 appearances. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in April, missing the entire 2022 campaign and possibly some of 2023 as well.
- The Red Sox are non-tendering outfielder/first-baseman Franchy Cordero, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Cordero appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox this past season, but hit just .219/.300/.397 with eight home runs while grading out very poorly on defense. The Sox have also non-tendered infielder Yu Chang, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The versatile infielder began the year with the Guardians but subsequently went to the Pirates in a trade, then went to the Rays and Red Sox on waiver claims. Across those four teams, he hit .208/.289/.315 for a wRC+ of 78.
- The Astros will part ways with reliever Josh James, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports they’re expected to non-tender him tonight. He spent the entire 2022 campaign in the minors, and underwent flexor tendon surgery in October and is without a timetable to return.
- The Rangers announced that right-hander Nick Snyder has not been tendered a contract. He only has 4 2/3 innings of MLB experience over the past couple of seasons. He spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, posting a 4.97 ERA over 38 innings, though with a 30.9% strikeout rate.
- The Royals opted to non-tender lefty Jake Brentz and right-hander Nate Webb, the team announced. That’s no surprise, as both players were designated for assignment earlier this week. They lost their 40-man roster spots as a result, but the non-tender means Kansas City won’t need to run them through waivers before sending them directly to free agency. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Kansas City is tendering contracts to the rest of their arbitration class, including Brad Keller and Amir Garrett — each of whom seemed to have a small chance of being cut loose after tough seasons.
