Reds Acquire Kyle Holder
The Reds are acquiring shortstop Kyle Holder in a trade with the Phillies, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Both teams have officially announced the trade, with cash considerations heading to the Phillies in return. The move will free up a space on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster, so the Phils’ signing of Didi Gregorius could soon be officially announced.
The Yankees selected Holder with the 30th overall pick of the 2015 draft, and he proceeded to hit .264/.317/.350 over 1744 PA in New York’s farm system. Holder then moved to the Phillies as a selection in December’s Rule 5 Draft, and as per Rule 5 stipulations, Holder will now have to remain on Cincinnati’s active roster for the entire season, or else the Reds will have to offer him back to the Yankees.
With Gregorius back in the fold, Holder was an expendable part in Philadelphia, but he could potentially play a larger role for the Reds. Given Cincinnati’s lack of shortstop depth, in fact, Holder might even be in line for some action in the starting lineup, unless the Reds add a more established infielder between now and Opening Day. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Reds are still hoping to acquire Amed Rosario from the Indians, after reports linked Cincinnati to Rosario earlier this week.
While Holder hasn’t hit much in the minors and he has yet to play even Triple-A ball, he is a well-regarded defender whose glove may already be big league-caliber. Holder has played mostly shortstop in the minors but has also seen time at second and third base, so he could serve as a valuable utility asset on the Reds’ bench.
Rangers To Sign Sam Gaviglio
The Rangers are in agreement with Sam Gaviglio on a minor-league contract, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to major league spring training.
Gaviglio has seen big league action in each of the past four seasons, mostly as a member of the Blue Jays. Primarily a starting pitcher early in his MLB career, the right-hander has worked exclusively out of the bullpen the past two seasons. Gaviglio has never been much of a strikeout arm but he throws strikes and has induced ground balls at a decent clip. Altogether, the 30-year-old has tossed 296.2 innings of 4.88 ERA/4.37 SIERA ball at the highest level.
There’s plenty of room for Gaviglio to earn his way onto the Rangers’ active roster with a strong showing in spring training, especially if the club sees him as a potential starting option. Kolby Allard, the current favorite for the final spot in the rotation, was knocked around for an 8.80 ERA last year. Texas’ bullpen composition is also uncertain beyond the top four of Jonathan Hernández, Joely Rodríguez, José Leclerc and Taylor Hearn.
Athletics Acquire Cole Irvin From Phillies
1:17 pm: Both teams have announced the trade. Oakland’s 40-man roster is now full.
11:00 am: The Athletics are picking up left-hander Cole Irvin in exchange for cash considerations in a deal with the Phillies, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Irvin’s departure will clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Matt Moore, who agreed to terms on a one-year deal earlier this week. Another move will need to be made to accommodate Didi Gregorius‘ addition to the roster once his two-year deal is finalized.
Irvin, 27 tomorrow, has picked up nineteen MLB appearances (three starts) over the past two seasons. Across 45.2 innings, he has a 6.75 ERA/4.87 SIERA. He doesn’t miss many bats; his 17.2% strikeout rate is well below the league average of 23.4%. However, Irvin compiled a long track record of throwing strikes in the minors and has continued to do so at the highest level, walking only 6.9% of opposing hitters as a big leaguer.
The southpaw twice ranked among Baseball America’s top thirty prospects in the Phillies’ system. He still has a minor-league option remaining, meaning the A’s can shuffle him between the majors and Triple-A Las Vegas if he survives the offseason on the 40-man roster.
Mets Sign Aaron Loup
JANUARY 30: Loup’s deal, which the Mets have now made official, also includes $250K in potential incentives based on appearances, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The Mets’ 40-man roster is now full.
JANUARY 28: Loup’s contract would guarantee him around $3MM once finalized, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).
JANUARY 27: The Mets and left-handed reliever Aaron Loup are in agreement on a deal, pending the completion of a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal for Loup, Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported earlier this afternoon that the Mets were “zeroing in” on Loup after missing out on Brad Hand, who signed with the division-rival Nationals. Loup is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.
Loup, 33, gives the Mets an established left-handed bullpen option that the roster previous lacked. Waiver claim Stephen Tarpley and former 40th-round pick Daniel Zamora were the only two southpaws on the Mets’ 40-man roster prior to their forthcoming agreement with Loup. Veteran southpaw Jerry Blevins will be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee as well, though he didn’t pitch at all last season.
Outside of a forearm strain that wiped out a good chunk of his 2019 season in San Diego, Loup has been a largely durable and reasonably effective bullpen piece since breaking into the Majors with the Blue Jays back in 2012. He’s had some ups and downs along the way, but the end result is a 3.38 ERA and 3.24 SIERA with career strikeout and walk rates of 21.9 percent and 7.0 percent. Loup has upped his strikeout numbers over the past few years, however, and in 2020 with the Rays delivered one of his best stretches: a 2.52 ERA and 3.62 SIERA with a 22.9 percent punchout rate and a 4.2 percent walk rate that ranked among the game’s lowest. He also tossed 5 1/3 innings in the playoffs, allowing just two runs with seven strikeouts against two walks.
Loup has been better against lefties throughout his big league career but has held his own against righties and was quite good against them in 2020’s shortened slate of games. He’s held opposing lefties to a career .232/.301/.319 batting line while righties have managed a .264/.333/.428 output.
Loup will join right-hander Trevor May as a new member of the Mets’ setup core, effectively replacing fellow free-agent lefty Justin Wilson in the process. The Mets could perhaps still use another lefty, but with a relief corps featuring May, Loup, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Castro and Brad Brach, they’re certainly not light on talent. Some of those veterans — Betances and Familia in particular — are in search of rebound efforts, but everyone in that veteran group has enjoyed a good bit of big league success.
White Sox Re-Sign Carlos Rodon
The White Sox are in agreement with free agent left-hander Carlos Rodón, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical. It’s a major league contract worth a guaranteed $3MM, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
Rodón has spent his entire pro career in the organization, after the Sox selected him with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft out of North Carolina State. Early on, he looked well on his way to fulfilling that promise. Rodón was a fixture in the big league rotation by 2015 and looked the part of a solid mid-rotation starter over his first two seasons in MLB.
Things have gone off the rails since then, however. Rodón dealt with a series of arm injuries and struggled between stints on the injured list from 2017-19, culminating in a May 2019 Tommy John surgery. He returned to Chicago’s rotation to start the 2020 season but was shut back down after just two starts due to soreness in his throwing shoulder. Fortunately, Rodón did make it back to the mound for a pair of relief appearances at the end of last season. Working in short stints, he averaged nearly 96MPH on his fastball, a significant uptick from his typical low-90’s velocity as a starter.
In spite of that end-of-season flash of peak form, Chicago non-tendered Rodón rather than bring him back for a projected arbitration salary in the $4-5MM range. After a few months in free agency, he’ll return to the organization at a slightly cheaper price.
The 28-year-old will compete with Reynaldo López and Dylan Cease for a season-opening rotation spot behind Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel, hears Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. (Top prospect Michael Kopech is expected to start the season in the minors, per Rosenthal). Even if Rodón doesn’t win a rotation job, it’s easy to imagine him serving as a valuable, power lefty relief piece for new manager Tony La Russa.
Blue Jays Sign Marcus Semien
JANUARY 30: The Blue Jays have announced the deal.
JANUARY 26: The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.
Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself headed to Oakland as part of the December 2014 Jeff Samardzija deal. For the next three seasons, Semien produced like a second-division starter, averaging 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that hike in value, however, came on the defensive end.
His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether another hulk-out season is coming. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a high-floor player with potential for more.
Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: 
subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive scores (at least since 2018) by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. For that matter, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays. They can now continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more to likely start most games at first. That foursome – Guerrero, Semien, Bichette, and Biggio – has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.
This isn’t the first firework Toronto has lit this winter. Their lineup now features a well-fed George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood will help the bullpen, and don’t forget that the offseason began with the Jays keeping Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is projected around $146MM. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent a spending increase, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payroll has jumped from approximately $118MM to $132MM.
In terms of value, the Jays did well to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14MM contract for Semien, so he’ll make slightly more in total dollars than we expected. Seeing Andrelton Simmons sign for $7.5MM less might feel disheartening at first, but Semien has the higher ceiling, and if nothing else, Toronto maintains the long-term integrity of the plan to keep Bichette at short by adding Semien over Simmons. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, and Bichette has as good a chance as any of them to stick at short.
At second, Semien should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore and Simmons in Minnesota, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Didi Gregorius is now the top option still available in free agency, with Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto behind him.
For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9MM qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first broke news of the deal, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the terms of the deal (via Twitter), and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chimed in with Toronto’s defensive plans for Semien. Many have also noted that former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke this news earlier today on instagram. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels To Sign Junior Guerra To Minor-League Deal
The Angels are signing right-hander Junior Guerra to a minor-league contract, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Presumably, the deal will include an invitation to MLB spring training.
After four seasons as a highly-utilized swingman in Milwaukee, Guerra signed with the Diamondbacks before the 2020 season. He pitched 23.2 innings of 3.04 ERA ball with Arizona, but his underlying numbers suggest he was rather fortunate to manage that level of run prevention. Guerra struck out just 20.4% of opposing hitters, significantly below the league average mark (24.1%) for relievers. He also walked a career-high 14.6% of batters faced, the thirteenth-highest rate among the 323 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched last year. Wary of those mediocre peripherals, Arizona released Guerra rather than pay him an arbitration salary projected in the $2.8MM range.
There’s no harm for the Angels in bringing Guerra in on a non-roster deal to bolster the pitching depth. To his credit, the 36-year-old did induce plenty of ground balls last season. He also has ample experience working multiple innings out of the pen (and starting, although he’s exclusively been a reliever the past two seasons). Over his big league career, Guerra owns a 3.77 ERA/4.55 SIERA.
Astros To Sign Steven Souza To Minor-League Deal
The Astros are in agreement on a deal with outfielder Steven Souza Jr., reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). It’s a minor-league deal, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Souza’s deal comes with an invitation to major league spring training, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.
Souza once looked like a potential core piece on the heels of a strong three-year run with the Rays, culminating in a .239/.351/.459 (121 wRC+), 30-homer season in 2017. After that campaign, the Diamondbacks acquired Souza in a three-team trade involving Tampa Bay and the Yankees.
Unfortunately, the move didn’t pan out. Souza struggled with both injuries and underperformance in 2018, then suffered a devastating knee injury near the end of the following spring training. That ended his 2019 season before it began; the Diamondbacks non-tendered him that winter. Souza did manage to return to the big leagues in 2020 after signing a one-year deal with the Cubs. His stay in Chicago lasted only eleven games, though, thanks in part to another stint on the injured list (this time for a hamstring strain).
It has now been three years since Souza’s managed a full, healthy season. Nevertheless, there’s no risk for the Astros in bringing the 31-year-old in on a non-roster deal and giving him an opportunity to compete for a job in spring training. It looks to be a decent landing spot for Souza, as there’s little depth in the Astros’ corner outfield behind projected starters Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker.
Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado
10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.
8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.
Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.
This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.
While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.
Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.
The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.” But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.
The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.
With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.
Braves, Carl Edwards Jr. Agree To Minor League Deal
The Braves have reached a minor league agreement with right-handed reliever Carl Edwards Jr., Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
Edwards is best known as a member of the Cubs, with whom he spent 2015-19 and won a World Series in 2016. He was a highly effective reliever for most of that period, though Edwards’ production fell off in his last season as a Cub and they traded him to the Padres that summer. Edwards didn’t last long as a Padre, throwing 1 2/3 innings of six-run ball before they let him go.
Edwards became a Mariner before last season when he signed a major league deal with the team, though forearm problems limited him to just 4 2/3 innings. However, the 29-year-old did yield a meager one run during that time and post better strikeout and walk percentages than usual (35.3 and 5.9).
In all, Edwards has recorded a 3.54 ERA/3.52 SIERA, averaged about 95 mph on his fastball, and registered a 32.9 percent strikeout rate against a 13.7 walk rate in 180 2/3 major league innings. Based on his track record, it’s easy to see why a team would take a chance on him in free agency. The Braves are an especially logical fit with Mark Melancon and Shane Greene on the free-agent market.