NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Karsay, Mets, Braves
The latest from the NL East…
- As of last Tuesday, the Nationals had yet to speak with Ryan Zimmerman or his agents, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. Zimmerman is a free agent for the first time in his 15-year career, after the Nats spent $2MM to buy out their $18MM club option on the veteran first baseman for the 2020 season. Back in August, Zimmerman said that remaining in Washington was a priority, and he was willing to play on a series of less-pricey one-year contracts. Assuming he hasn’t changed that stance, Zimmerman could be viewed by the Nationals as something of a fallback, as the team may feel safe in first exploring other first base options.
- The Mets will interview Steve Karsay for their pitching coach opening, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Karsay is currently the Brewers‘ bullpen coach, after spending 2012-18 as a pitching coach in the Indians’ minor league system. Of course, most fans know Karsay best from his 11 seasons and 603 1/3 career MLB innings with five different teams (most notably the A’s, Indians, and Yankees) from 1993-2006. Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and University Of Michigan pitching coach Chris Fetter are the only other known candidates linked to the Mets’ job.
- Between Will Smith, Mark Melancon, and Shane Greene, the Braves could be committing roughly $33.5MM in salary to three relievers next season, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes. Greene’s salary is still up in the air, as the Braves could potentially non-tender the righty rather than pay him $6.5MM in projected arbitration salary. A non-tender or trade could be possible if the Braves are wary of overspending on their bullpen, since $33.5MM is rather a hefty sum for a trio that only featured one member (Smith) who posted really outstanding numbers in 2019. Tucker observes that the Braves already have around $100MM (barring any more non-tenders) on the books for player payroll for next season, which leaves them with quite a bit of spending capacity if the team is willing or able to match its season-ending $144MM payroll figure from last year.
Trea Turner Undergoes Surgery On Index Finger
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner underwent surgery this weekend on his index finger, according to an Instagram post from the player’s profile relayed by Todd Dybas of NBC Sports (link).
The shortstop originally suffered a fracture to the digit while trying to bunt in an Apr 2 game against the Phillies. Though the break required Turner to sit on the IL for roughly six weeks, the 26-year-old ultimately returned to action and gutted out another strong season. If Turner was hindered by only having full use of nine fingers, his .298/.353/.497 slash line over 569 PAs certainly indicated otherwise.
While the bad hand didn’t seem to dampen Turner’s output at the plate, his defense certainly may have suffered as a result; the NC State product logged a -10 DRS and -7 UZR at short in 2019 after recording slightly above-average fielding metrics in 2018. Still, Turner’s overall performance was good enough for 3.5 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR valuations on the year.
While D.C. may have to address the departure of key contributors like Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, and Howie Kendrick this offseason, the shortstop position projects to be a source of stability for the next several years. After avoiding his first trip through arbitration last year by agreeing to a $3.725MM salary figure with the Nats, Turner is projected to take home a $7.5MM arbitration award in his second trip through the system this offseason. Washington retains control of Turner through the 2022 season.
NL Notes: Nats, Cubs, Rox, Cards
In one of the winter’s most fascinating storylines, the Nationals face the potential loss of two more centerpiece players after bidding adieu to Bryce Harper last winter … and then winning a long-awaited crown. The D.C. organization would like to “get quick resolutions” on both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), rather than engaging in a protracted courtship. If it’s a fond farewell, in either situation, then the Nats would like to get on with sorting out a replacement plan. The offseason could take any number of different directions for the defending World Series champs.
More from the National League …
- The Cubs like Nicholas Castellanos and he likes the Cubs. So … why not bring him back? Sahadev Sharma breaks down the situation for The Athletic (subscription link), explaining the many barriers to a reunion. In part it’s simply a financial issue, but there is also a legitimate dilemma in the outfield. Kyle Schwarber‘s season went much like that of Castellanos, starting meekly and ending quite strong, so why replace the former with the latter? Both are bat-first players that probably shouldn’t be standing on the same outfield grass for too long. That leaves the focus on center field, per Sharma, which is where things get tricky. There are loads of other clubs facing similar situations and relatively few up-the-middle options available — particularly in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see how the Cubs sort things out, but Castellanos seems to be a bit of a mis-fitting puzzle piece — unless, perhaps, other developments intervene and his market doesn’t develop as he hopes.
- It is still tough to gauge whether the Rockies will end up pulling off some major roster moves or simply make a few tweaks. GM Jeff Bridich and owner Dick Monfort have suggested the club will need to improve largely from within, while also expressing optimism that it can do so. But we’ve heard persistent chatter regarding possible trade scenarios involving top Colorado players — much of it speculative, to be fair. Odds are, the Rox will simply be looking for affordable, marginal improvements this winter. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post provides a transcript of Bridich’s most recent comments. Bolstering the pitching and finding a second catcher are the two goals, though it still seems those will be of modest expense. So what of the idea of trading Jon Gray? Saunders tweets that the Rockies could be open to it … if they can secure a major package involving significant prospects as well as “an established pitcher” to replace Gray. That feels unlikely to come to fruition.
- The Cardinals have traded away a huge volume of outfield talent in recent years and have plenty of internal options at or near the majors. Yet the teams still enters the winter with a possible need in that area, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription link). He reasons that the team needs to add a left-handed-hitting piece and looks at a few theoretical trade possibilities. The trick is that the Cards don’t appear interested in raising payroll and all the veterans cited will not be particularly cheap. Joc Pederson ($8.5MM), David Peralta ($8.8MM), and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) probably wouldn’t require major prospect hauls to acquire, but could bust the self-imposed St. Louis budget. We actually predicted that this year’s top two left-handed-hitting free agent corner outfielders, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun, would secure less annually than each of those players.
7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers
The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down. An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.
Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….
- Madison Bumgarner (Giants)
- Gerrit Cole (Astros)
- Josh Donaldson (Braves)
- Marcell Ozuna (Cardinals)
- Anthony Rendon (Nationals)
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals)
- Zack Wheeler (Mets)
There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment. There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.
If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020. Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension. It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.
Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation. (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent). The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick. Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.
A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact. Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.
Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.
As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.
In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.
The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.
Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.
Nationals Interested In Josh Donaldson
At least six teams are showing early interest in star free agent Josh Donaldson, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays. The World Series champion Nationals are among the clubs eyeing the third baseman, as are the previously reported Rangers, Phillies and Braves, according to Feinsand.
As those who follow the game know, the Nationals have an even higher-profile free-agent third baseman in Anthony Rendon – hands down the best position player on the market. MLBTR forecasts Rendon will land a $235MM guarantee, which trounces Donaldson’s $75MM projection. Thanks in part to the age difference between the two, the soon-to-be 34-year-old Donaldson lacks the appeal of Rendon, 29, though the former nonetheless remains one of baseball’s most valuable players.
Donaldson, a onetime AL MVP, is coming off a 4.9-fWAR season in which he batted .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs across 659 plate appearances. Atlanta signed the ex-Athletic and Blue Jay to a $23MM guarantee last winter after back-to-back injury-limited campaigns, and it proved to be a brilliant short-term gamble by the Braves. Of course, considering the Braves are one of Washington’s division rivals, the Nationals got plenty of up-close looks at Donaldson in 2019. Unsurprisingly, it seems the Nats came away impressed.
While the Nationals may view Donaldson as a legitimate possibility for their hot corner vacancy, odds are they’d prefer to re-sign Rendon. The big-market, high-spending club has two elite free agents in Rendon and right-hander Stephen Strasburg, and after a championship-winning season, it would be a surprise to see both exit. But if Rendon goes, the Nationals may well turn to the highly accomplished Donaldson as a much less expensive fallback option. Meantime, Donaldson has until Thursday to accept or reject the Braves’ $17.8MM qualifying offer. Turning it down looks like a formality.
NL Notes: Contreras, Banks, Hefner
We already checked in on some notes from the American League today. Now let’s take a look at the National League.
- A Willson Contreras trade won’t do the Cubs any favors in 2020, but it’s more preferable than moving any of the team’s other star players, opines Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic. Some rival organizations believe Chicago will indeed make that move this offseason, and there would surely be ample interest in the 27-year-old catcher if the Cubs put him on the market. Contreras is one of baseball’s best offensive catchers, and the Cubs maintain that he’ll improve as a pitch framer, although as Sharma notes, he continues to rate near the bottom of the league in that category. Parting ways with a franchise catcher isn’t ideal, but the Cubs do at least have a strong internal replacement available in Víctor Caratini. The same can’t be said for shortstop, third base, or first base, so a trade of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, or Anthony Rizzo is tougher to envision. The Cubs don’t have to trade any of those players, Sharma points out, although ownership seems unlikely to green-light a major payroll increase and the MLB pitching staff and minor-league system both need augmenting.
- Nationals outfield prospect Nick Banks put together a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League. He credits some of that success to Ken Joyce, a hitting coach in the Yankees organization, with whom Banks worked in the AFL, reports Byron Kerr of MASN. A fourth-round draft choice by Washington out of Texas A&M in 2016, Banks hit well across two levels, reaching Double-A Harrisburg this season. He’s never been regarded as a top prospect (topping out as Washington’s #31 prospect after 2016, per Baseball America), although perhaps his solid 2019 season and postseason mechanical work with Joyce will turn some heads in the organization. The 24-year-old will be Rule V eligible if he’s not added to Washington’s 40-man roster by November 20.
- The Mets are set to interview Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner for their top pitching coach position. Their interest in bringing him on staff isn’t new, as SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter) reports that New York offered him an interview for bullpen coach last offseason. The former Mets’ pitcher was then already locked into his position with Minnesota, but he’ll sit down with New York brass this time around for an opportunity to lead the entire pitching staff.
MLBTR Poll: Nats’ Top Two Free Agents
Just under a week after knocking off the Astros in a seven-game World Series, the Nationals are undoubtedly still reveling over their first championship. But now that the offseason has arrived, they’re at risk of losing a few key contributors to free agency.
Two of the many faces of the Nationals’ improbable playoff run were right-hander Stephen Strasburg and third baseman Anthony Rendon, who each seemed to come up with one heroic moment after another throughout the postseason. Strasburg deservedly earned World Series MVP honors after going on a particularly jaw-dropping run. It’s no surprise he and Rendon, who have consistently been among the Nationals’ top players and the majors’ most impressive performers throughout their careers, were among the main catalysts for the club’s championship. And now that they’re unsigned heading into 2020, they’re about to be paid rather handsomely for their years-long shows of brilliance. The question is whether they’ll continue with the Nationals going forward.
MLBTR regards the Nationals as the favorites to sign both Strasburg and Rendon, though doing so will require the team to put its enviable financial might on full display. We project the 31-year-old Strasburg (six years, $180MM) and the 29-year-old Rendon (seven years, $235MM) to combine for $415MM on their next contracts. That type of commitment may be especially risky in the case of Strasburg – not only owing to the fact that he’s a pitcher, but because injuries have been somewhat common throughout his career. Although Strasburg did just toss a career-high 209 regular-season innings in 2019, he’s only a year removed from a 130-frame showing – which was the latest of a handful of abbreviated campaigns in his career.
Of course, the point of this exercise isn’t to list the few flaws Strasburg and Rendon may have. It’s to ask whether the Nationals will re-sign one, both or either of the superstar Scott Boras clients. Fresh off a fairytale few months, there’s surely motivation for both sides to work something out. Rendon has indicated in the past he’d like to continue his career with the only organization he has known since it selected him in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. Strasburg, meanwhile, first joined the franchise as an extremely hyped No. 1 pick in 2009. While Strasburg did just opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM left on his contract, that common sense business decision doesn’t necessarily mean he’s champing at the bit to leave D.C. What do you think the future holds for him and Rendon?
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Nats re-sign Strasburg or Rendon?
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Yes to both 30% (3,419)
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Strasburg 28% (3,202)
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Rendon 26% (2,891)
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They won't keep either 16% (1,797)
Total votes: 11,309
10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.
This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.
This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).
Here are the ten players:
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
- Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
- Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
- Will Smith, RP, Giants
- Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.
Padres Plan To Pursue Stephen Strasburg
With Nationals co-ace and World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg opting out of his contract and preparing to hit free agency, the Padres are gearing up to make a push for the right-hander’s services. According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, “multiple people in the [Padres] organization indicated over the past few days that the team will be in position to make a run at Stephen Strasburg.”
The connection is clear: Strasburg, 31, was born and raised in and around San Diego, attending college at San Diego State University, where he was coached by Padres legend Tony Gwynn. That alone has instantly forced the Padres into the conversation as a suitor for the former first overall draft choice. Everybody loves a good homecoming story, but one not need look further than Strasburg’s own teammate, Patrick Corbin, as an example of a free agent who was widely regarded as a near-lock to join his hometown Yankees, only to sign on with the Nats. That’s not to say the Strasburg-Padres link doesn’t hold any salt, but there will certainly be more variables that factor into Strasburg’s final decision, and it would behoove the Padres to refrain from relying too much on the hometown trope in recruiting Strasburg.
As Acee notes, the prevailing view around the industry is that the Nationals, who according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman are poised to immediately enter talks with Strasburg, remain the favorites to retain their franchise icon. After opting out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his current deal, the Scott Boras client will be seeking a nice raise on the heels of arguably his best season. He struck out a career-high 251 batters while pitching his most innings since 2014—not including the stellar 36 1/3 innings he logged during the Nats’ title run. Regardless, the Friars’ interest is notable in that it represents a logical progression of the franchise rebuild, which looks to be entering its final stages.
To be sure, location isn’t the only thing that makes Strasburg and the Padres compatible—there’s a fit on paper, as well. Still without a top-flight starter, Strasburg would greatly bolster the Padres’ chances in the coming season. Rookie Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet were the most impressive cogs in the starting rotation, but the depth beyond that pair is troubling. Garrett Richards is healthy and will be back in 2020, and top prospects like Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and Cal Quantrill have graduated to the big leagues. Each of those youngsters could take a second-year leap and contribute to the 2020 rotation, but banking on that would put a lot on the shoulders of an inexperienced group that hasn’t yet shown that they can stick on a Major League staff.
The Padres have long been regarded as a team on the rise, with a healthy stable of prospects that has led many to pronounce the Friars as the next coming of the Cubs or Astros. But potential can only get you so far, and many are itching for the front office to show a sense of urgency and capitalize on the depth of young talent in the organization. Indeed, the front office’s recent actions indicate that the organization feels its window for contention is opening: signing Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer firmly declared the team’s desire to transition into a win-now mode. They were rumored to be in talks for top-flight trade targets like Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, and Marcus Stroman, ultimately coming up empty-handed.
Of course, adding a pitcher of Strasburg’s caliber would require the Padres to ratchet up the 2020 payroll. Roster Resource pegs San Diego’s current obligations at roughly $120MM, a number that includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. Of course, some of those players may be non-tendered, and Wil Myers, owner of a hefty $22.5MM salary, is a candidate to be traded. Such moves could partially offset the cost of adding Strasburg, which could come in at a bill exceeding $30MM annually. While San Diego’s deep farm system has made the trade market its primary recourse for acquiring Major League talent, it’s not every day that a pitcher like Strasburg could be had where money is the only cost.