The Hot Start Of Trevor Williams Raises Interesting Questions
Coming into 2024, Trevor Williams was something of an afterthought on the Nationals’ roster. But six weeks into the 2024 season, he has emerged as one of the more interesting members of the club, thanks to his utter dominance so far this year.
Entering the campaign, most baseball fans outside of the D.C. area probably weren’t thinking of Williams at all. Fans of the Nats were probably more excited about young players like MacKenzie Gore, James Wood or Dylan Crews. Williams was a veteran stopgap who didn’t draw much attention. He had some serviceable years in the past but struggled over 2019 and 2020, getting bumped into a swing role in 2021 and 2022.
The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a two-year deal going into 2023 with a $13MM guarantee. They had traded away many of their most established players and needed a veteran innings eater. Patrick Corbin‘s contract was aging incredibly poorly while young guys like Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli had not yet been fully established at the big league level.
The first year of the Williams deal was quite unremarkable. He did take the ball 30 times and chew up 144 1/3 innings, but with a 5.55 earned run average. His 8% walk rate was around league average but he struck out just 16.8% of batters faced and allowed 34 home runs.
After that performance, he didn’t even seem to be guaranteed a rotation spot on the 2024 club. Back in December, manager Dave Martinez said that Williams “right now is our fourth or fifth starter,” per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That seemed to leave the door open to further additions bumping him out of the starting staff, but those never came. The Nats had a fairly quiet winter, which left Williams to open in the rotation alongside Gore, Gray, Corbin and Jake Irvin.
So far, that’s working out great for both Williams and the Nats. Through seven starts and 36 2/3 innings, he has just a 1.96 ERA. His 21.1% strikeout rate is still a bit below average but is a big jump from last year. He’s getting ground balls at a 49% rate and hasn’t yet allowed a home run this season.
There are some caveats to keep in mind here. Seven starts is obviously a small sample size and it’s incredibly unlikely he can continue posting results this strong. His .270 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate are both a bit on the fortunate side, as his his 0% home run per fly ball rate. His 2.50 FIP and 4.04 SIERA both suggest he hasn’t been quite as good as the 1.96 ERA might make you think.
Perhaps this is just a lucky stretch and regression is just around the corner. This kind of strong performance in a small sample isn’t unprecedented with Williams. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his most dominant stretch of seven starts came with the Pirates in 2018. He finished that season particularly strong, with a 2.33 ERA in July, 1.16 in August and then 2.20 in September/October.
But there are also reasons for optimism, particularly since Williams changed his pitch mix by adding a sweeper. According to Statcast, he first threw the pitch last year but only 73 times, 2.8% of his pitches thrown with five other offerings coming in more frequently. But he’s up to 101 sweepers this year, a 17.9% clip. His four-seamer is still his go-to at 205 thrown, but the changeup is second at 103, meaning the sweeper is neck-and-neck with the change for his primary offspeed offering.
The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off.
Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.
Again, regression is likely coming because he’s had a bit of luck so far. The league will also surely adjust to his new repertoire, which should lessen his ability to flummox batters with his arsenal. But even if he steps back from this ace-like performance a bit, it could still have impacts for him and the club.
Williams will be heading back out to free agency this winter and improved numbers will naturally lead to more interest and more earning power. His contract will be limited by his age, since he’ll be going into his age-33 season. But pitchers can still find decent money at that age or older, as shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker.
Williams won’t be able to get near established aces like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. But Seth Lugo‘s trajectory isn’t terribly dissimilar from that of Williams. Lugo was bumped from starting into a relief role for a while, spent a year with the Padres re-establishing himself as a legit starter and then secured a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals going into his age-34 season. Tyler Anderson got a three-year, $39MM pact after a breakout in his age-32 campaign while guys like Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb secured two-year deals between $20MM and $37MM.
Of that group, only Anderson and Eovaldi received qualifying offers. Stroman and Cobb received QOs earlier their careers and were no longer eligible, and Quintana wasn’t eligible prior to signing his Mets deal since he was traded in the prior season. But Lugo, Martinez, Stripling and Maeda were allowed to hit free agency without a QO. That perhaps suggests Williams is a long shot to get one himself, even if he continues putting up good numbers, but Anderson’s situation shows it’s at least something the Nats may consider. Anderson had a 4.62 career ERA before breaking out with the Dodgers in 2022. He posted a 2.57 ERA, got the QO and still found his aforementioned three-year deal from the Angels, netting the Dodgers an extra draft pick.
Putting over $20MM on the table for a guy they just signed to $13MM over two years, a deal they undoubtedly regretted halfway through, would be a big risk for the Nats. But they also have almost nothing on the books thanks to their ongoing rebuild. Corbin’s ill-fated deal is finally done after 2024 and Strasburg’s retirement allowed the club to pay out the remainder of his deal with deferred payments. Joey Gallo‘s deal has a buyout on a mutual option. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension with a low average annual value, and that’s it in terms of future commitments.
Of course, the qualifying offer decision will only have to be made if he lasts all year with Washington. The club is currently 18-18 and still in the thick of the National League Wild Card standings, but the Nats have a -8 run differential and are just 5-9 against teams that are above .500. Based on their poor results in past seasons and the fact that they weren’t really expected to compete this year, it’s entirely possible that they slip back in the coming months.
If that happens, then it’s far more likely that the Nats simply trade Williams for whatever he can fetch at the deadline. The return likely wouldn’t be huge for a 32-year-old rental, but pitching is always in demand and he will find interest if he continues pitching well. That scenario would be good for Williams, allowing him to pitch for a team in contention while also taking the QO off the table.
There are still many ways this could play out and many factors that will play a role in the path forward. Can Williams keep this up or will the league adjust? Will the warm summer air simply allow more balls to cruise over the fence? Will the Nats hover around the Wild Card race or will they fall out of it? Time will provide the answers to those questions, but the fact that Williams is even this interesting is quite remarkable, considering where things stood about six months ago.
Matt Barnes Elects Free Agency
10:44am: The Nationals announced that Barnes has rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
May 9, 10:17am: Barnes cleared outright waivers and has been assigned outright to the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He has enough service time to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, if he chooses.
May 7: The Nationals announced Tuesday they’ve designated right-hander Matt Barnes for assignment. His spot on the active roster will go to lefty Robert Garcia, who’s been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. The Nats’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Barnes, 33, inked a minor league deal with Washington in the early portion of Spring Training. He made the Opening Day roster after throwing five scoreless innings in camp. The veteran reliever hasn’t carried that success into the regular season. Barnes has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over 13 1/3 frames while working in low-leverage situations. His 8% swinging strike rate is well below both the league average and his career 12.3% mark.
It’s the second straight season in which Barnes has struggled to miss bats. He managed whiffs on a career-low 7.8% of his offerings en route to a 5.48 ERA in 21 1/3 innings with the Marlins last year. That season was cut short before the All-Star Break by a left hip injury that required surgery. Barnes’ velocity has yet to return to pre-surgery levels. His 91.4 MPH average fastball speed and 81.5 MPH curveball velocity are each down two ticks from where they sat in 2023.
Barnes was averaging around 95-96 MPH on his heater and in the mid-80s with his breaking ball during his best seasons with the Red Sox. That included four seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball over a five-year stretch from 2017-21. Barnes routinely punched out more than 30% of opposing hitters during that run and held the closer role in Boston in 2021. He earned an All-Star nod that season and secured a two-year, $18.75MM extension that July.
A shoulder injury in 2022 and the aforementioned hip issue have prevented Barnes from recapturing that form in the two-plus years since then. The Nats will technically have five days to trade him, but it’s likelier he’ll be released. Barnes locked in a $2MM base salary when he made the Washington roster. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, the Nationals will be responsible for the bulk of that contract. Another team that subsequently signs him would owe the prorated portion of the $740K minimum for any time he spends on their MLB roster.
NL East Notes: Robles, Bohm, Murphy
Nationals center fielder Victor Robles has played just four games this season due to a hamstring strain he suffered in early April, and manager Dave Martinez told reporters (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) on Friday that he’s “running really well” in his rehab assignment, indicating he remains on track for a return at some point this month.
Perhaps more notably, Martinez indicated that Robles isn’t likely to take back the starting job in center field upon his return. 24-year-old youngster Jacob Young has made a strong impression as a regular in Robles’s absence, with a .311/.354/.378 slash line in 81 trips to the plate. That production is good for a 113 wRC+, and Young has also gone 12-for-13 on the basepaths. That type of offensive production would be hard for the club to part with, but its nonetheless surprising that the Nationals don’t plan to return Robles, a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport who has patrolled the position for eight seasons, to his usual spot in the lineup.
With Young seemingly taking over as the regular center fielder long term, Martinez noted that Robles will still play center field on occasion but “could play some right field as well.” The club has relied on Eddie Rosario and Alex Call in right field as of late, with the veteran Rosario struggling badly to an eye-popping -10 wRC+ to this point in the season that indicates he’s been 110% worse than league average at the plate. Call has impressed with five hits and three walks in 21 trips to the plate this season, but that production has come across just seven games at the big league level.
More from around the NL East…
- The Phillies suffered a major injury scare last night when third baseman Alec Bohm exited the club’s win over the Giants with right hip tightness. The move was labeled precautionary by manager Rob Thomson (as noted by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) in the aftermath of yesterday’s game and Bohm himself indicated to reporters (including Coffey) that he isn’t particularly concerned about the issue. That Bohm seemingly won’t require a trip to the injured list is surely a massive relief for Phillies fans, as the club lost Trea Turner to the shelf yesterday and he had been the club’s second best hitter behind Bohm this year. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a look at Bohm’s hot start this season, during which he’s hit a whopping .364/.435/.579 in 138 trips to the plate.
- Braves backstop Sean Murphy has been ramping up baseball activities as he rehabs an oblique injury that sidelined him during the first game of the season back in March. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Murphy had already been ramping up his throwing from behind the plate and caught a few bullpen sessions but has now progressed to swinging the bat, starting with him hitting off a tee during the club’s road trip to Seattle last week. The return of Murphy would surely be a major boost to Atlanta, as the 29-year-old has emerged as one of the best catchers in the sport in recent seasons. That said, veteran Travis d’Arnaud has done exceptionally well in Murphy’s absence, slashing an incredible .269/.341/.564 with a whopping five home runs in just 88 trips to the plate this season.
Nationals Outright Jake Alu
The Nationals announced this afternoon that infielder/outfielder Jake Alu has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Rochester.
Alu, 27, was selected by the Nats in the 24th round of the 2019 draft and made his big league debut with the club last season. He struggled in 51 games last year, hitting just .226/.282/.289 with five extra-base hits in 175 trips to the plate. While Alu contributed minimal value with the bat last year, he was nonetheless an interesting bench piece for the club thanks to his versatility. Alu played left field as well as both second and third base for the Nationals last year at the major league level and has even received brief cameos at shortstop and first base in the minor leagues.
That versatility wasn’t enough to earn Alu a spot on the Nationals bench entering the season, however, and the utilityman was sent to Triple-A Rochester to open the 2024 campaign. He thrived at the level in 74 games last year, slashing a solid .298/.360/.428 in 330 trips to the plate, but struggled in a return to the level this year as he posted a tepid .190/.262/.276 slash line in 65 trips to the plate. Those struggles were enough for Washington to decide to risk losing Alu on waivers last week, when the club designated him for assignment to open up a roster spot for right-hander Jacob Barnes.
Fortunately for the Nationals, Alu cleared waivers and will instead report to Rochester as a non-roster depth option for the club going forward. As an optionable hitter with plenty of defensive versatility, Alu could be a useful piece to have on hand in the event of an injury that compromises the depth of the big league club. At Triple-A, Alu figures to compete with the likes of Juan Yepez, Carter Kieboom, and Stone Garrett as potential depth options for the Nationals going forward.
Nationals Place Joey Gallo On 10-Day Injured List
The Nationals have placed Joey Gallo on the 10-day injured list, as the first baseman/outfielder is dealing with an AC sprain in his left shoulder. Outfielder Alex Call was promoted from Triple-A to take Gallo’s spot on the active roster. (The Talk Nats blog reported earlier today that Call was headed to the majors, but the corresponding move wasn’t known at the time.)
Gallo signed a one-year, $5MM free agent deal over the offseason, and has worked mostly as Washington’s everyday first baseman with a few appearances as a corner outfielder and DH. Gallo had seen more work in the outfield since Lane Thomas went to the 10-day IL earlier this week, but with Gallo, Thomas, and Victor Robles all now out of action, Call figures to get a good chunk of playing time in the interim.
No matter Gallo’s position, the offensive production hasn’t been there. The veteran has struggled to a .122/.286/.311 slash line over 91 plate appearances, with three homers and a Major League-leading 43 strikeouts. This 47.3% strikeout rate is high even by Gallo’s career standards, and while his 16.5% walk rate is very strong, Gallo simply isn’t making enough contact. The rebuilding Nationals were hoping Gallo would hit well enough to be a trade chip at the deadline, yet for now, Gallo will first have to focus just on getting healthy before he can look to turn things around at the plate.
NL East Notes: Ozuna, Turnbull, Mets, Senga, Megill, Cavalli
“There’s no way you want to go explore somewhere else when you feel comfortable, when you’ve got your teammates and you’ve got your organization’s love. There’s no doubt in my decision. I don’t want to go anywhere else,” Marcell Ozuna told The Athletic’s David O’Brien about his desire to sign a contract extension with the Braves. Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal is up at season’s end, though the Braves hold a $16MM club option for 2025 that looks like a sure bet to be exercised give how well Ozuna is performing at the plate. Coming off a 40-homer campaign in 2023, Ozuna has stayed hot by hitting .344/.419/.677 over his first 105 plate appearances in 2024, leading the National League with nine homers.
The idea of Ozuna remaining in Atlanta over the long term would’ve seemed far-fetched a year ago. The veteran struggled badly over the first two seasons of his contract, and that two-year stint also included an arrest on a DUI charge, and a 20-game suspension under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Since the Braves reportedly never considered parting ways with Ozuna in the wake of these issues or his lack of production on the field, it would stand to reason that the team would be open to some kind of longer-term commitment beyond just the club option year. Some obvious obstacles exist — Ozuna will be 35 in November 2025 and is essentially a DH-only player at this point in his career, plus Atlanta’s payroll is already at team-record heights in both pure dollars and in luxury tax value.
More from the NL East…
- Taijuan Walker is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list on Sunday to start the Phillies‘ game against the Padres. A shoulder impingement delayed Walker’s 2024 debut, and it also created an opportunity for Spencer Turnbull to open some eyes as the fill-in starter in Philadelphia’s rotation. With an outstanding 1.33 ERA over 27 innings and five starts, Turnbull has certainly pitched well enough to remain in the starting mix, but Rob Thomson told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (X link) and other reporters that a decision will be held off on Turnbull’s next step until after Walker throws on Sunday. Turnbull could get a proper start on Tuesday, or be part of a piggyback start with Cristopher Sanchez in Monday’s game. With Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Sanchez, and Turnbull all looking great thus far in the season, Walker’s return gives the Phillies a rare pitching surplus at the moment, and creates a nice problem for the team to navigate.
- In some Mets injury updates, Kodai Senga will throw a live batting practice session on Monday, and Tylor Megill will begin a minor league rehab assignment today with high-A Brooklyn. (The Athletic’s Tim Britton was among those to report the news.) Senga has yet to pitch this season due to a moderate posterior capsule strain suffered during Spring Training, and because of his placement on the 60-day injured list, won’t be eligible to join the Mets until May 27 at the earliest. Megill pitched in one game before a shoulder strain sent him to the 15-day IL. Megill and Senga could each potentially be part of a six-man rotation over the next six weeks, as Britton writes that New York is considering using an extra starter to keep everyone fresh through a busy stretch of the schedule.
- Cade Cavalli is set for a live batting practice session on Monday, his first time facing real hitters since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2023. Cavalli updated reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Bobby Blanco) about his rehab progress, as the plan is for the right-hander to start a minor league rehab assignment in the middle of May. Nationals manager Davey Martinez then views Cavalli’s return to the majors for “sometime at the end of June, maybe July.” The 22nd overall pick of the 2020 draft pitched in exactly one MLB game before his career was put on pause by the TJ procedure, and assuming all goes well health-wise, Cavalli should now be in line for his extended stint in a big league rotation.
Nationals Place Lane Thomas On Injured List With Grade 2 MCL Sprain
3:12pm: It’s a Grade 2 sprain, manager Davey Martinez announced to the Nationals beat (X link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). While not a worst-case scenario, that points to an absence of some note for the Nats’ everyday right fielder.
12:56pm: The Nationals announced Wednesday that they’ve placed outfielder Lane Thomas on the 10-day injured list due to an MCL sprain in his left knee. Infielder Trey Lipscomb has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester in his place. Andrew Golden of the Washington Post first reported that Lipscomb would be called up if Thomas required a trip to the injured list after departing last night’s game with the injury.
Thomas sustained the injury last night on a steal of second base (video link). After a somewhat awkward feet-first slide into the bag, he rolled to his side in obvious discomfort. He tried to stand and was initially unable to put weight on the leg, though he eventually was able to stand and walk off the field with the team’s training staff. The Nats haven’t yet provided a timetable for Thomas’ recovery, nor have they specified the extent of the sprain.
The 28-year-old Thomas has had a rough start to his season at the plate, hitting just .184/.250/.253 in 96 trips to the plate — a far cry from last year’s career-high 28 home runs and breakout .268/.315/.468 showing. He’s actually cut his strikeout rate from 25.8% to 20.8% and upped his walk rate from 5.3% to 8.3% thus far. Much of Thomas’ struggle seems related to a .212 average on balls in play that sits 91 points shy of the career .303 mark he carried into the season, though it can’t all be chalked up to bad luck. He’s already hit seven infield flies this season, nearly halfway to last year’s total of 16. Those virtually automatic outs are naturally going to suppress his BABIP.
When Thomas has managed to reach base, he’s been exceptional. His 11 stolen bases (in 12 attempts) rank second in the majors, trailing only Milwaukee’s Brice Turang and Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz (both at 12). It’s an unexpected development from a player who has always had good speed but had never stolen more than 20 bags in a season, which he did just last season.
The injury to Thomas opens the door for more outfield reps for veterans Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario. They’ll likely flank center fielder Jacob Young on a regular basis while Thomas is on the mend for a yet-to-be-determined period of time. Of course, all eyes will be on top prospect James Wood, who has crushed Triple-A pitching at a .303/.418/.474 clip through his first 91 plate appearances this season.
It’s feasible that the 21-year-old Wood — widely considered to be among the sport’s 10 to 20 best overall prospects — could get a look in the big leagues sooner than later. That’ll be all the more tempting for the Nats if Thomas is slated to miss significant time. If he’s only expected to be on the shelf for a couple weeks, however, the Nats could give Wood everyday at-bats in Triple-A for a bit longer. Winker has been excellent in left field, although if the Nats wanted to free up playing time for Wood on the big league roster, it wouldn’t be that difficult. Rosario, Joey Gallo and designated hitter Joey Meneses have all struggled greatly at the plate thus far. Moving Winker to DH to clear a corner outfield spot could happen at some point even if Thomas is back in the fold in relatively short order.
Nationals Select Jacob Barnes, Designate Jake Alu
The Nationals announced today that they have select the contract of right-hander Jacob Barnes. He will take the active roster spot of left-hander Robert Garcia, who has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to influenza, retroactive to April 21. To open a 40-man spot for Barnes, infielder/outfielder Jake Alu has been designated for assignment. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com noted that Barnes was in the clubhouse prior to the official announcement.
It would appear that an influenza virus is spreading around the Nats’ clubhouse. Catcher Keibert Ruiz came down with the illness and also landed on the IL, last appearing in a game back on April 8. Over the weekend, he told Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post that he was feeling better but had lost 18 to 20 pounds because of his illness. Garcia last appeared on Saturday and it seems he is unwell, so the club will let him rest up for the next little while.
To take his spot in the bullpen, they have tapped a veteran journeyman in Barnes. They 34-year-old has appeared in the past eight major league seasons and will make in nine in a row once the Nats send him out to the mound. He has suited up for the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees and Cardinals in that time, and will now add the Nationals to that list.
He has a 4.76 earned run average over his 265 appearances, but with much better numbers earlier in his career. He tossed 147 1/3 innings with the Brewers from 2016 to 2018 with a 3.54 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. Since then, he has a 6.32 ERA while punching out just 20.8% of hitters, corresponding with the nomadic phase of his career.
He finished last season with the Cardinals but they outrighted him off the roster in October, allowing him to elect free agency. He signed a minor league deal with the Nats and has been in good form of late, having tossed eight scoreless innings for their Triple-A club, striking out ten opponents while giving out just two walks. He’s out of options so the club won’t be able to send him back down to the minors at a future date. Even if they were to pass him through waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.
To add that veteran arm to their pen, the Nats are risking losing Alu. A 24th-round pick in 2019, Alu overcame that modest draft selection to get onto Washington’s 40-man roster in November of 2022, as the club hoped to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had hit .299/.365/.506 in the minors that year for a wRC+ of 131.
Since Alu already offered a bit of speed and some defensive versatility, the Nats were hoping that the improved offense was a good sign of things to come. Unfortunately, he’s hit just .226/.282/.289 in the majors thus far and just .277/.341/.397 in the minors since the start of 2023, the latter line translating to a wRC+ of 88.
The Nats will now have a week to trade Alu or pass him through waivers. The lack of offense will tamp down the interest somewhat but he still has a couple of options and has played all four infield positions, as well as left field.
NL East Notes: Martinez, Ruiz, Strider
The Mets are hoping that veteran slugger J.D. Martinez can join the big league club to make his debut on Friday, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). In the meantime, DiComo adds that Martinez will move his rehab assignment up to Triple-A Syracuse while he works toward being ready to return to the big leagues. Martinez, 36, signed with the Mets on a one-year deal just before Opening Day. Thanks to the slugger missing the entirety of Spring Training, he began the season in the minor leagues in order to build up for his debut with the big league Mets.
That process hit almost an immediate snag after Martinez found himself sidelined by “general body soreness” just two games into his rehab process. It was initially expected that Martinez would only need a few days off, but he hasn’t appeared in any games during the two weeks since then. That’s now set to change, however, with Martinez scheduled to get his final reps in at the Triple-A level before finally making his debut in Queens against the Cardinals, assuming things go smoothly from here. Should Martinez indeed be ready to come up on Friday, it would provide a boost to a Mets club that has already won six straight and ten of their last twelve to place themselves just 2.5 games back of Atlanta for the lead in the NL East.
The addition of Martinez, a six-time All Star and three-time Silver Slugger award winner, to the club’s lineup should help to further bolster a lineup that has already delivered a solid 109 wRC+ that ranks ninth among all MLB clubs this season. He’ll be particularly valuable for his power output; while the Mets currently rank middle of the pack with an ISO of just .141 and 22 home runs as a team, Martinez sports an incredible .237 ISO for his career and crushed 33 homers in just 113 games with the Dodgers last year.
More from around the NL East…
- When Nationals backstop Keibert Ruiz was placed on the 10-day injured list because of the flu last week, it was a bit of an unusual diagnosis as illnesses rarely keep players out for more than a couple of days. Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post reported this afternoon that Ruiz’s case was severe enough that he’s lost between 18 and 20 pounds due to the illness, which has sidelined him since April 9. Fortunately, the young catcher seems to be doing better at this point, as Nusbaum adds that Ruiz is expected to head out for a rehab assignment in the coming days. Ruiz got off to a tough start at the plate with a slash line of just .194/.265/.290 in 34 plate appearances this year but nonetheless figures to take over regular catching duties for the Nats upon his return, where Riley Adams and Drew Millas have split time in Ruiz’s absence.
- Braves right-hander Spencer Strider won’t pitch again this season after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his UCL earlier this month, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) earlier this week that he hadn’t actually torn his UCL. Instead, Strider noted that imaging revealed that a bone fragment had formed inside his UCL in the years since he first underwent surgery on the elbow back in 2019. Strider also revealed that he had been nursing discomfort in his elbow dating back to Spring Training, though at the time he attempted to pitch through it as it hadn’t impacted his velocity. The 25-year-old has emerged as one of the league’s most talented starters in recent years, posting a 3.36 ERA and 2.43 FIP in 318 1/3 innings of work between the 2022 and ’23 seasons. Atlanta has turned to right-hander Darius Vines to fill Strider’s spot in the rotation for the time being, though it’s possible another arm such as Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver could enter the mix for Strider’s starts at some point this season.
2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition
We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.
For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.
A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.
Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.
It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.
On a Major League Roster
Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)
Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.
Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ‘pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.
Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)
Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.
Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.
Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)
The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.
Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)
The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.
It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.
Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)
Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.
Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)
While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.
Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)
Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.
On the Major League Injured List
Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.
Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.
Returned to Original Organization
Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.