Rays Interested In Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Kyle Gibson
The Rays have already made one big pre-deadline splash in acquiring Nelson Cruz, and more major names seem to be on Tampa’s radar. According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, the Rays “have had preliminary discussions about” Max Scherzer and Kris Bryant, while FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the Rays are also one of the teams who have spoken to the Rangers about right-hander Kyle Gibson.
As always with Tampa Bay, payroll will be a critical factor in any acquisition, particularly since all of these players represent larger financial commitments than the Rays are usually willing to make. As Passan notes, however, the Rays’ deep farm system can act as a counterweight to those salaries — the Nationals, Cubs, or Rangers could possibly cover most or all of the remaining salaries for their trade chips if the Rays were willing to include some of their higher-tier minor leaguers. It can be reasonably assumed that Wander Franco is untouchable in trade talks, but beyond that, the Rays could be willing to budge on other noteworthy prospects if it meant landing a player that could help them win a World Series.
Scherzer presents a particularly interesting case, since the Nationals are solely responsible for the final $7.5MM installment of Scherzer’s original signing bonus, and the roughly $11.8MM remaining of his $35MM salary for 2021 is entirely deferred until 2028. Beyond just kicking the financial can down the road for much of the decade, the Rays might very well even be in a new city (and have new revenue streams) available by that point, since the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field is up in 2027.
Scherzer would have to okay the move to Tampa by waiving his no-trade clause, and recent reports suggest that he would be more open to playing for a team on the west coast. This doesn’t necessarily mean Scherzer would veto a proposed move to Tampa Bay, but it is possible the Rays might not get the nod if Scherzer was presented with multiple trade options, such as a potential move to one of the NL West powers.
As one executive recently described matters to Murray, Gibson is maybe the “most unpredictable element” of deadline season. While someone like Scherzer obviously has a more proven track record, Gibson has been very good in 2021 but has been much more up-and-down over the course of his eight MLB seasons. Whereas Scherzer and Bryant are free agents after the season, Gibson is controlled through 2022, at the cost of a $7MM salary. The Rays could see acquiring Gibson as a way of checking off one box for their offseason shopping needs….or, given how Tampa operates, they could flip Gibson themselves this winter to save payroll space.
The Cubs have already moved Joc Pederson and Andrew Chafin in trades, and several other players figure to be departing Wrigleyville prior to Friday’s 3pm CT deadline. Bryant is widely expected to be dealt, though the shape of the Cubs’ other trades might contribute to what exactly Chicago does in moving the former NL MVP. Should the Cubs move a significant amount of money off their books in other deals, the team could be more open to absorbing more of Bryant’s salary (around $6.8MM remaining) in order to obtain better prospects from the Rays.
Adding both Cruz and Bryant would represent a major boost to an already-solid Tampa Bay lineup, and Bryant also brings the versatility that a DH-only player like Cruz lacks. The Rays’ penchant for defensive flexibility could see Bryant used at either corner infield position or anywhere in the outfield, depending on matchups and situations. Any potential positional logjam could be alleviated by the trade itself, if the Rays sent a position player off their Major League roster back to the Cubs.
Mets More Focused On Rental Pitchers
The Mets are in the market for pitching, reports SNY’s Andy Martino, who notes that they’re more focused on rentals than players controlled beyond 2021. The Mets recently added ageless southpaw Rich Hill, who made his club debut yesterday with a five-inning start, but they remain in the market for pitching of all kinds. The Mets’ injured list for pitchers is extensive, with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Robert Stock, Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto, Robert Gsellman, Stephen Nogosek, Corey Oswalt, and Sean Reid-Foley. Dellin Betances and Joey Lucchesi are out for the season due to Tommy John surgery, but Carrasco is close to making his Mets debut.
According to Martino, the Mets “intend to check in” with the Nationals about ace Max Scherzer, though such a trade would be a tough pill to swallow for the Nats. Twins righty Jose Berrios is not a Mets target at this time, says Martino, in fitting with his point that New York prefers rentals so as not to deplete their farm system.
So what might the market for rental starting pitchers look like? Narrowing to teams with less than a 10% shot at the playoffs according to FanGraphs, Scherzer, Jon Gray, Zach Davies, Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Anderson, J.A. Happ, Andrew Heaney, Jose Urena, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Trevor Cahill fit the bill. Not all of those pitchers are necessarily healthy or effective, but we’re casting a wide net.
Potential rental relievers include Raisel Iglesias, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Dan Winkler, Steve Cishek, Hansel Robles, Brad Hand, Josh Tomlin, Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland, Yimi Garcia, Alex Colome, Daniel Norris, Tony Watson, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens, Ross Detwiler, Joakim Soria, Chasen Shreve, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Derek Holland, Blake Parker, Shane Greene, and Erasmo Ramirez.
Latest From The Nationals
The Nationals’ will to compete is being tested this trade deadline. After back-to-back losses to the Orioles, the Nats don’t look at all like a contender. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and two cornerstone players in Trea Turner and Juan Soto whom they’ll want to sign long-term in the coming season. Restocking the farm system could go a long way to providing Turner and Soto with the future competitive security they may need to ink long-term deals, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
The most significant deadline question, of course, revolves around Max Scherzer. Mad Max missed his start yesterday with triceps discomfort, but it’s a minor injury and nothing that should derail a potential trade, if there were to be one. A decision has not yet been made about making his next start, per Dougherty.
Joe Ross will come off the injured list without a rehab assignment to start tomorrow’s game against the Phillies, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Ross hasn’t been talked about much in terms of the trade market, but he’s put up a solid season — 4.02 ERA/4.51 FIP in 87 1/3 innings — as he finally looks to be rounding back into form as the guy who debuted with the Nats back in 2015. He’s making just $1.5MM, and he has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Scherzer is obviously the big fish in Washington, but for teams looking for cheap, controllable help in the rotation, Ross has mid-rotation upside.
Whether Ross would be available or not is unclear. If indeed the Nats decide to sell, Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand would presumably be the two names of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Hudson has been excellent once again this year and could solidify a contender’s pen as he did for the Nats in 2019. The Blue Jays are among the teams to ask about the Nats’ pair of back-end arms, per Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter).
Tanner Rainey is beginning a rehab assignment today, tweets Dougherty. Rainey’s had a tough season to date — 6.93 ERA in 24 2/3 innings — and he’s less likely to be dealt than the names above. That said, if Hudson and/or Hand are moved, Rainey would be a prime contender to take on some high leverage duties.
If Scherzer and/or Ross do get moved, the Nats would have to dig deep to find enough starters to fill out their rotation. Stephen Strasburg does not seem any closer to making his return from a neck strain and other various ailments. He will see another specialist this week, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.
Draft Signings: 7/24/21
Here are the latest Day Two draft picks to sign with their teams. For more on the 2021 draft class, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
All signings were reported by MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, unless specified otherwise.
- The Angels signed St. Mary’s College left-hander Ky Bush for a $1.75MM bonus, spending slightly beyond the 45th overall pick’s assigned value of $1,650,200.
- The Nationals signed Daylen Lile for $1.75MM, going a bit overslot ($1,580,200) for the 47th overall pick to get the high school outfielder to forego his commitment to Louisville.
- The White Sox went overslot to sign second-round pick Wes Kath, signing the high school third baseman for a $1.8MM bonus. The 57th overall selection has an assigned price of $1,243,600, but the Sox had some money to spare after going well underslot to sign college players picked within their first 10 selections.
- The Athletics signed University of Virginia third baseman Zack Gelof for $1,157,400, matching the slot price for the 60th overall pick. Oakland has now signed all of its picks from the first 10 rounds of the draft.
- The Royals signed 66th overall pick Peyton Wilson for an at-slot ($1,003,300) bonus. Wilson is listed as a second baseman, but Callis notes that the University Of Alabama product can also play catcher and center fielder.
- The Indians signed Florida right-hander Tommy Mace for $1.1MM, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo. Mace’s bonus is above the $929.8K slot price for the 69th overall pick.
- The Orioles have reached agreements with 20 of their 21 picks, with some notable overslot bonuses among the signings Eighth-rounder Creed Willems had the most eye-opening number, as the high school catcher landed a $1MM bonus that went way over the $187.7K assigned slot price for the 227th pick. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports that the Orioles also went well above the $818.2K slot price for 76th overall pick John Rhodes, who signed for $1.375MM.
Latest On Max Scherzer
3:41PM: In another wrinkle to the situation, Scherzer was scratched from his scheduled start tonight against the Orioles due to what the Nationals described as “mild discomfort” in the veteran ace’s right tricep. (Jon Lester will instead take the ball for Washington.) The injury doesn’t appear to be serious, as Scherzer told MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato and other reporters that he expects to make his next start, and his triceps issue stemmed from a recent batting practice session rather than anything pitching-related.
11:12AM: The Nationals have long been one of the more stubborn teams in terms of maintaining the opportunity for contention, and that’s no less true this season. But with the Nationals playoff odds currently at 2.2 percent per Fangraphs, Max Scherzer is “being discussed in potential trades,” per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).
Heyman makes no specific mention of the Nats’ decision-makers, however, and even if GM Mike Rizzo were open to moving the future Hall of Famer, he’d still need to get the okay from owner Mark Lerner. Historically, trading off pieces of any kind has been a tough sell to Lerner, let alone Scherzer, whom the club has long envisioned as the centerpiece of the organization.
Heyman is no doubt right that Scherzer’s availability would re-shape the trade market. He would be far and away the most impactful pitcher available. The 36-year-old shows no signs of slowing down with a 2.83 ERA through 105 innings this season.
Nationals Call Up Carter Kieboom
Carter Kieboom is on his way to join the Nationals in Baltimore, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, who first suggested (via Twitter) that he’d be added to the roster in place of Jordy Mercer. As expected, the Nationals announced the move, with Mercer landing back on the 10-day injured list with a left calf strain, retroactive to July 21st, and Kieboom on his way to the Major League roster.
Regardless of the cause, it’s an interesting time for the Nationals to make a move with Kieboom, once a top prospect in baseball and still one of Washington’s top trade chips. With less than a week before the trade deadline, there’s not much time for a showcase of any kind, whether it be for the Nats to show him off to other clubs, or even just to get a look at him themselves.
It’s looking less and less like the Nationals are readying to make a push for contention, so perhaps this is just the beginning of a season-long showcase for Kieboom to prove himself at the hot corner. He’s had opportunity before, but never on ideal terms. He was rushed to the Majors in 2019 because of a Trea Turner injury, then took over for departed franchise icon Anthony Rendon for a shortened season during a global pandemic. Though he hasn’t performed as expected in the Majors, the book is hardly closed on Kieboom.
Nationals Backing Down Stephen Strasburg’s Throwing Program
July 23: The Nats are now backing down Strasburg’s throwing program after continued discomfort in his neck, Martinez announced to reporters (Twitter link via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman). It’s possible he’ll see another specialist before the team determines next steps.
July 17: Stephen Strasburg has encountered a setback in his recovery from nerve irritation in his neck, as the Nationals righty continued to feel discomfort in his neck while pitching a simulated game on July 9. As manager Davey Martinez told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty and other reporters, Strasburg threw on flat ground prior to tonight’s game, and also threw on Friday.
The fact that Strasburg is still throwing is a good sign, and perhaps indicative that this latest issue could ultimately end up being pretty minor. That said, Strasburg was placed on the injured list on June 2, and it doesn’t bode well that he is still feeling soreness after over six weeks. It isn’t clear when Strasburg’s recovery might kick back into higher gear (such as a minor league rehab assignment), as Martinez made it clear that the team wants to fully correct the injury problem. “When Stephen comes back, I want him to come back and finish the season on the mound and not have this recurrence again,” Martinez said.
Between this absence and an earlier IL stint due to shoulder inflammation, Strasburg has tossed only 21 2/3 innings this season. Due to Strasburg being sidelined by carpal tunnel syndrome for much of the 2020 season, he has pitched only 26 2/3 total frames since the start of the 2020 campaign, and since the right-hander inked a seven-year, $245MM free agent contract to return to Washington.
While Strasburg is far from the only Nats player to be waylaid by injuries over the last two seasons, his contract and his importance to the starting rotation make him stand out as a particular reason why the Nats have had trouble stringing wins together since their 2019 World Series victory. A five-game losing streak has now dropped the D.C. squad to 42-48 for the season, and while things remain close in the NL East, more losses could potentially send the Nationals pivoting towards selling some veterans at the trade deadline.
Nationals’ GM: Upcoming Week Of Play To Determine Trade Deadline Plans
No team from the NL East has yet separated themselves from the pack. The Phillies, Braves and Nationals are all within five games of the division-leading Mets, with much of the division hovering within the realm of .500.
It’s almost certainly division title or bust for all those teams, with the top three in the NL West all ahead of the Mets in the National League playoff picture. There’s likely only one path to the postseason for each of New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Washington, but the division’s overall underwhelming play has left the door open for each.
None of that group can really afford a slump over the next couple weeks — especially not the fourth-place Nats, who sit at 45-49. Speaking with reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Maria Torres of the Athletic) before yesterday’s game, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged that the team’s performance over the next week and a half will go a long way towards determining their course of action before the July 30 trade deadline.
Rizzo suggested the front office would look to add to the roster if the team plays well over the coming days. He didn’t tip his hand as to exactly what that calculus looks like or how close to the top of the division the club would need to stay in order for the Nationals to serve as buyers. Washington beat the Marlins last night and will go for a sweep of Miami this evening. After an off day tomorrow, the Nats head to Baltimore for three games before a four-game set in Philadelphia that’ll take them up to the deadline.
Under Rizzo’s watch, the Nationals traditionally haven’t been shy about making midseason upgrades when they see the opportunity. The GM didn’t specify where the club would looking to upgrade if they wound up buying, but a few places on the roster stand out as logical fits. The Nationals could use help at the back of the rotation, and the bullpen has again had its share of issues.
On the position player side, either of second or third base could be easily upgraded upon. Alcides Escobar has played well since being acquired a few weeks ago, but he hadn’t appeared in the big leagues in either of the past two seasons and hasn’t had an above-average campaign since 2014. (Escobar was also diagnosed with a right wrist contusion after being hit by a pitch in last night’s game).
Starlin Castro didn’t play especially well at third base and was placed on administrative leave last week after being accused of domestic violence. (While not a disciplinary action, administrative leave gives MLB time to investigate alleged violations of the domestic violence policy while keeping the accused player away from the team). Rizzo told reporters yesterday (including Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic) he doesn’t expect Castro to return, saying the organization “failed” in their vetting process of the player’s makeup and stating that Castro’s alleged behavior is “not something that (manager) Davey Martinez’s and Mike Rizzo’s Washington Nationals are going to have on this team.”
If things go in the other direction and the Nationals do wind up selling, no player on the roster would draw more attention than ace Max Scherzer. Rizzo said he expects Scherzer to remain in Washington beyond the trade deadline, although he stopped short of calling him untouchable. Asked if there was any scenario in which Scherzer might be made available, Rizzo replied “if we turn into definite sellers, everything would be on the table, I would think. Which I don’t foresee.”
The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against a Scherzer trade, although it’s at least a little notable that Rizzo wouldn’t completely rule that situation out. It’d seemingly take a poor week of play for the Nationals to even consider a Scherzer trade, though, and there are numerous obstacles that could stand in the way even if Washington made him available. While he’s slated to hit free agency at the end of the year, the eight-time All-Star is due $15MM in annual deferrals through the end of 2028. He also has full no-trade rights, and agent Scott Boras suggested last month Scherzer might not waive those unless given some other form of contractual inducement to do so.
It’d be more straightforward for the Nationals to move a few of their other impending free agents. Utilityman Josh Harrison and relievers Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson would all generate calls from interested clubs. Jon Lester isn’t having a great year, but he could still upgrade some teams’ fifth starter spots and would be a respected veteran addition to a clubhouse.
The opportunity is there for the team to quell any of that speculation by playing well over the next week. The division still seems winnable for any of the top four teams, and Rizzo’s track record backs up his assertion he’d be willing to supplement the roster if the club shows enough life leading up to the deadline.
Padres/Nationals Game Suspended Due To Shooting Outside Nationals Park
11:14PM: The police have released an update saying that three people were injured, rather than four. All three received wounds that aren’t thought to be life-threatening. (Details from Jesse Dougherty, Andrew Golden, and Clarence Williams of The Washington Post.)
9:50PM: Tonight’s game between the Padres and Nationals was suspended in the bottom of the sixth inning due to a shooting that took place near Nationals Park. Gunshots from outside the park (near the third base gates) could be heard inside the ballpark, and stadium employees told The Washington Post’s Sam Fortier that the incident was a drive-by shooting. According to the Washington D.C. Police Department (Twitter links), two people were shot, and “two additional victims associated with this incident walked into area hospitals for treatment of gunshot wounds.”
The sound of the gunshots brought play inside Nationals Park to a halt, and players and fans took shelter inside the dugouts and on the stadium concourses, while other fans rushed to exit the stadium. Announcements were made over the public address system informing fans of the situation and asking everyone to remain in the park; after several minutes, fans were instructed to make an orderly exit out of the ballpark’s center field and right field gates.
The game will resume tomorrow at 12:05pm CT, with the Padres and Nationals finishing the final three innings before a break. Sunday’s originally scheduled game (which had been set to start at 12:05PMCT) will then get underway.
Nationals Have Interest In Kris Bryant
The Nationals are among the teams with interest in Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). There will certainly be plenty of other suitors for the former NL MVP, who might wind up being the top player traded over the next two weeks.
Indeed, the Nats aren’t the only team in the NL East reportedly looking into a Bryant acquisition. The division-leading Mets were linked to the four-time All-Star last night. On the surface, New York looks to be a more obvious deadline buyer than Washington, who enters tonight’s game with a 42-47 record. In fact, Bryant’s current club is actually a game and a half above the Nats in the Wild Card race.
That said, the Nationals haven’t been shy about trying to make a playoff push when the opportunity presents itself under general manager Mike Rizzo. They’re six games back of the Mets (albeit with the Phillies and Braves also ahead of them) in a division where no teams have separated themselves from the pack. Washington has a difficult three-game series against the Padres this weekend, but that’s followed by dates with the Marlins and Orioles next week, which could give them an opportunity to make up some ground in the standings.
If the Nationals do look to add to the big league roster in the coming weeks, third base is an obvious area to upgrade. Washington has gotten below-average production (.280/.333/.369) at the hot corner over the course of the year, where nearly all of the playing time has gone to Starlin Castro. Castro was placed on administrative leave this afternoon as Major League Baseball investigates domestic violence allegations made against him. Jordy Mercer started at third base tonight in Washington’s first game out of the All-Star Break.
Bryant, of course, would be an upgrade over most teams’ third base situations. The 29-year-old has bounced back from a poor 2020 campaign to hit at an excellent .271/.353/.502 level with sixteen home runs over 329 plate appearances. He’s tailed off after a scorching start to the year, but Bryant’s overall body of work is one of the better ones in the sport.
Of the 231 hitters to accrue 200+ plate appearances in 2021, Bryant is tied for 40th with a 132 wRC+. Relative to last season, he’s drawing more walks, striking out less often and making a higher rate of hard contact. Bryant hasn’t regained the MVP-caliber form he showed early in his career, but his All-Star selection in 2021 was certainly deserved.
The general expectation is that Bryant will wind up on the move between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Cubs president Jed Hoyer suggested last week the team would listen to offers for players on their big league roster on the heels of an 11-game losing streak. They traded outfielder Joc Pederson to the Braves — a team with which the Cubs are ostensibly in competition for a Wild Card berth — for first base prospect Bryce Ball last night. And while Chicago’s reportedly planning to engage in extension talks with first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Báez before the trade deadline, there’s no indication that’s the case with Bryant.
One potential obstacle to a Bryant trade is salary. He signed a $19.5MM deal to avoid arbitration over the winter, approximately $8.3MM of which remains to be paid. The Nationals typically run higher than average payrolls, and their $183MM estimated figure (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) for this season is about $14MM shy of the franchise’s 2019 outlay. That could suggest there’s room on the books for Bryant, although it remains to be seen if ownership’s keen on making such an investment in a team that entered play tonight with a meager 2.8% chance of making the playoffs, in FanGraphs’ estimation.
The other important potential roadblock to a deal that sends Bryant to the nation’s capital is the Nationals’ thin farm system. Certainly, every team in the league could put together a prospect package sufficient to land Bryant, who’ll be a free agent at season’s end. But Heyman hears that the Nats don’t want to trade their top two prospects, right-handed pitchers Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge.
If that’s the case, it could be difficult for the Nationals to beat the market for Bryant. Infielder Yasel Antuna is the only other player in the system who garners a 45 FV ranking or better from Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs, and he’s hitting .191/.269/.347 in High-A this year. First-round pick Brady House will certainly vault near the top of the organizational rankings once he signs a professional contract, but 2021 draftees can’t be traded until next offseason. Perhaps the Cubs would have interest in former top prospect Carter Kieboom, but his stock has dimmed amidst some struggles at the big league level and he’s currently on the minor league injured list with a knee issue.
It stands to reason more teams will join the Nationals and Mets as having reported interest in Bryant in the coming weeks. The Cubs look primed to be one of the deadline’s most active sellers, and Bryant’s production and laundry list of accolades will make him perhaps the highest-profile player on the trade market.