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Rios For Cain Or Lincecum?

UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 6:16pm: Jeff Blair says the Jays' offer on the table is Rios for Lincecum, straight up.

UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 12:34pm: Brian Sabean wants more than just Rios for Lincecum (yes, the Jays prefer Lincecum based on service time).  The Giants want an improved proposal from the Jays, and Toronto could add Robinzon Diaz, Curtis Thigpen, or Brett Cecil.  Cecil would have to be a player to be named later since he was drafted in 2007.  He signed on June 22nd, so he can't even be named as a PTBNL until December 22nd. 

UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 10:56am: Peter Gammons via Amy Nelson is saying it's Lincecum for Rios currently rather than Cain.

UPDATE, 12-5-07 at 10:10am: Ken Rosenthal has some more details on these talks.  He says the Jays won't add pitching to their side of the deal.  Additionally, they don't want to move A.J. Burnett.  The Jays have a potentially elite rotation for 2008 if they can get Lincecum for Rios. 

FROM 12-4-07 at 10:46pm:

The San Francisco Chronicle's John Shea verifies that the interesting proposal Brian Sabean referred to involved the Jays' Alex Rios.  The Jays want to swap him for Matt Cain. The Jays prefer Cain to Tim Lincecum, as they worry Lincecum might have durability issues.

It almost sounds like Lincecum alone wouldn't get the Giants Rios, which is surprising.  Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is serious about trading Rios; he laid out to reporters what the Jays' outfield would look like without him.  By the way, the Giants have no interest in taking Troy Glaus in a deal.  For their third base vacancy, the Giants are looking at Brandon Inge.

Meanwhile MLB.com's Chris Haft believes the Jays want Lincecum for Rios.  John, Chris - just talk to each other and sort this thing out.


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This would be a trade that would benefit both team. In Rios, the Giants would be acquire a young hitter for the middle of their lineup. In Cain, The BlueJays would have the second best rotation in the division behind the Sox should they acquire Johan.

Jeebus.

Are you alive CASHMAN?!?

Cano + Horne for Lincecum + Durham. Pull the trigger damnit.

No thanks I'd rather keep Cain. Pass.

Well, if the giants are intent on trading one of the two, i think that rios is a pretty get bounty to get back straightup. However, I would first see what i could get for lowry, but if the jays were to get cain or lincecum, they may have the best young pitching core in the AL.

rios for cain straight up? even sabean isn't dumb enough to take that

San Fran had good pitching depth but basically zero offense. Rios is very underrated, if he was in NY or Boston he would considered UNTOUCHABLE. He also came up as a centerfielder, he could be a very adequate defensive CF. Rios is still young and can still develop into a 300 - 40hr- 120 rbi type of hitter. He's already a 2 time all-star. Remember the Home Run Derby, he showed his power there. Rios for Cain is a solid solid deal for the Giants.

The Jays are trading an established all-star who made $2.5 mil last year, he's the type of young player San Fran needs. It should be Rios for Cain + prospects. Brian Sabian should pull the trigger on this in a heartbeat

rios for cain straight up? even sabean isn't dumb enough to take that

Rios for Cain + Prospects?

Maybe I'm undervaluing Cano then.

Cano for Cain/Lincecum + Prospects.

Cano is 2 years younger, has posted same OPS+ numbers as Rios and plays at a scarce position in 2B.

I don't think they'll trade either of these guys for just one player. They would have to get a return of a few young players that they could develop into an offensive core.

ok so Cano's OPS and Rios are the same they should get the same return...man u stupid Yank fans think all their players are better then everyone else or Rios is better then Cano yea i said it...now im going to hear it from these stupid ol yank fans for years to come but i dont care

Yea Larsen:

Just because Cano and Rios put up the same exact numbers in nearly every category doesn't meant they should get the same return at all.

Rios steals more bases.

Cano is younger and cheaper.

And which is harder to find? A good hitting 2B or a good hitting corner OF?

Yea thought so. If you some random argument as to why Rios is so much more valuable than Cano feel free to explain.

Cain for Rios looks even to me. I saw someone already mentioned it, but I was at the HR Derby in SF and Rios looks like he could hit a ton there. Apparently the Giants just figured out that RH hitters have more power potential in that park.

you guys want a guy to take over for Bonds...Rios is ur guy..hell of bat.can play amazing D and has a hell of an arm too

If we HAVE to trade either Cain or Lincecum I'll trade Cain. But Cain for Rios straight up? No thanks. Cain for maybe Rios and a prospect, or Cain and a minor leaguer for Rios and another Jay would make more sense.

NO!

Cain straight up?? This guy is a Cy Young winner in the making. Rios is a great player, but there are other options without breaking up the core Cain/Lincecum.

Lincecum AND a prospect...wow, the Blue Jays are on CRACK!!!!!

I'd rather sign Fukudome or Andruw Jones and keep our pitchers. Trade Lowry or Sanchez if anything.

We already have a log jam in the OF...Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, Rajai Davis, Nate Schierholtz, Fred Lewis.

Rios and a prospect or reliever, maybe Jesse Litsch, would still be a good, more even deal.

The article says they won't give any MAJOR LEAGUE pitching.

Why can't the sox get in on rios? kenny is an idiot, we have plenty we can give to the jays, i wouldn't mind giving them any combination of sweeney, anderson and some pitchers, 2 or 3 is fine with me

I think that Lincecum for Rios straight up is fair. He's less tested, and could be an injury risk... Despite being electric.

Cain on the other hand, I think that Rios straight up would not be as fair. He's a proven work-horse.

I personally doubt JP isn't aware of this. It's better to bid low and then raise your offer gradually. You can't negotiate effectively if you offer the farm right off the bat. Negotiations would have no where to go.

If this gets done (which is still a serious "if", in my opinion), I think it will either be Lincecum straight up or Rios + minor leaguer for Cain.

Not that Rios isn't talented; he's fast, he hits for average, he hits for power, and he's arguably one of the best defensive right fielders in the league, but it's a lot harder to acquire good pitching than it is to acquire a good OF.

what has Lincecum proven? he was just drafted in 2006. had 8 starts in the minors in the 2006 season. he only has 1 season plus of professional baseball.. 37 starts total in the minors and majors.
he has walk issues. 65 BB in 146.1 IP for 4.00 BB/9.
maybe he will be awesome in the future, but right now he hasnt proven that much in professional baseball, majors and minors combined.

Rios might not be this big time HR hitter, but with that ballpark in SF i dont think the Giants should be looking for that type of hitter. Rios might not hit 35-40 HR a season, but i fully expect him to have 25-30.
over the last 2 seasons Rios have averaged..
.300 AVG/ .352 OBP/ .507 SLG/ .859 OPS
hes still only 26 years old, just entering his prime.. and getting better each season. if anyone wants to argue hes not a star right now, he will be very soon!

personally i really dont see how Lincecum is even in value to Rios.

I actually think that Rios for Cain is a very good deal for both teams. Rios is pretty much what you hope your best prospects look like at 26 years old, and he is awesome defensively. Cain is young and good, not great, but maybe even very good. I really think it makes sense for both teams.

Actually, Nelson said the talk is about Lincecum for Rios, whereas Gammons is saying it is Cain for Rios. Yet the impression you get from reading various sources is that the Giants are considering Lincecum in the move, but not Cain, so Nelson seems to be correct here. It still all gets down to whether or not it makes sense to trade a potential 200-strikeout pitcher straight up for a RF with decent but not great numbers.

I can't see the Bluejays holding a deal like this up over a prospect. Only the Yankees do that.

Why would the Jays do this ??? They already have the second best pitching staff in the league.

Do people think it is because they are assuming Burnett will opt out of his contract next year, and were looking for a new #2 behind halliday ??

Side note -- Do you think the Angels would be interested in Glaus as their power third baseman ? All theyd have to give up is Figgins

if your going to throw out the "potential" of Lincecum you have to do the same thing for Rios. if your saying Lincecum could have great "potential" then do the same thing with Rios. he could very well have great potential within the next 2 season if not next season.

its also not like Rios is just another RF.. he has one of the best RF arms in baseball.

Lincecum is under contract control until 2012.

Rios is a FA in 3 yrs.

This trade is not worth it from Giants end.

BaseBallz:

The reason why they would do this is that the best pitching staff in the league is in their division. That could mean the difference between the division and the wild card. Consider the fact that the Yankees have the best (or one of the best) offenses in baseball, and then you see that any chance the Jays have to make the team better, they have to take it.

I heard on Sportsnet that no one has won more games in recent years without earning a playoff spot than the Toronto Blue Jays. There are four teams in the AL that haven't made it in recent years. Three of them are in the AL East.

It's not good enough to have the second best rotation in the league, unfortunately. I'm all for any improvements.

Also, just for the record... I've been told that the FAN590 is reporting that the Jays are talking to Kenny Lofton. They're planning for a Rios trade.

no alex rios has a lot of upside to him if the jays trade him they r retarded

rotoworld is saying the Jays have acquired OF Buck Coats from the Reds.
Peter Gammons also says that JP is planning on going home today

Don't know anything about Diaz or Cecil, but Thigpen could be nice.

I have to look into these prospects...

Any of them 3B??

I like Thigpen but if I'm J.P., I give him to the Giants if that's what it takes. Definitely wouldn't move Cecil.

Diaz and Thigpen are catchers. Good offense, questionable defense. At least, that's my take.

Not Cecil. He's a pitcher with a lot of upside. It would be a big mistake for the Jays, I think. As amazing as Lincecum is, I think it would be overpaying.

If I'd deal any of them, it would be Thigpen. Both are decent catching prospects, though.

Josh Hamilton would be a better offer than Alex Rios.

There must be serious concerns about Lincecum's durability if the best he can bring is Rios + a prospect. Rios has about 4 years of service time.

Rios is a five tool player, I'd trade either Cain or Lincecum for him str8 up.

The giants have the money to extend Rios though, so I am pretty sure they are not too concerned about service time.

Why Sabean would want another catcher in Diaz is beyond me, when he already has two serviceable ones with MLB experience on his roster under Molina. Thigpen is a seemingly unremarkable 1B/Catcher as well. The steal here would be Brett Cecil, an intimidating lefthanded reliever from the University of Maryland who nearly averaged a K per inning as a sophomore in 2006. He can apparently also start, and has at least two solid pitches and unlike Lincecum is 6'2".

Diaz is a great defensive catcher who just got his offense going last season, where as Thigpen is more the offensive type with limited defense.

Giants want to move Bengie to save payroll.

Guillermo Rodriguez is a career minor leaguer. Not a replacement...

Not really to save payroll, but he's pretty much useless in a team thats not going anywhere over the life of his contract so why not get some prospects? And I would only trade Lincecum for Rios + Prospects, Lincecum is a horse who throws heat all day with some more games under his belt he could be better then Jake Peavy.

both of the Giants' catchers under Molina are career minor leaguers..as much as I'd hate to say it, I would do Lincecum for Rios + Cecil...but they STILL would have holes at 3b and 1b and too many outfielders

I agree Norcal...

We SERIOUSLY need to dump Dave Roberts and possibly Randy Winn..

I think Giant fans have got to realize that their offense is in shambles. They have no cornerstone guy. They need the young stud to build around.

I'd still like to get more for Lincecum if we have to give him up. After thinking about it since yesterday, I'd much rather lose Lincecum than Cain though, as Cain is more proven. But Rios is very tempting, I was at the ASG & HR Derby and Rios displayed his power very well at AT&T. I'd love to lock him up and build our outfield around him. But I still don't think he's the answer. We have a hole in the roatation (Sanchez isn't equal) and holes at 3B & 1B.

They need to dump outfielders, but not Randy Winn. No RF in baseball can play the brick wall at AT&T like Winn can, and he's underrated on offense and defense. If you're talking about dumpin OF's, they need to dump Roberts most imo.

Have the Giants tempted Toronto's waters with a Noah Lowry package instead?

That would be much easier on us fans, but I know Lowry alone can't bring Rios to SF...

The jays just wouldn't be interested, we have alot of starting pitching. This is looking to upgrade from waht we already have.

Giants have been shopping Lowry but haven't received any realistic offers.

GMs are really trying to lowball this season...

This trade would be horrendous for the Giants organization. The Blue Jays are not even the right fit for Lincecum.

Offer him to a team that is begging for pitching (i.e. the Reds or Mariners), and do what is right for the organization by obtaining 3 quality prospects in return.

If you can't get that return, DO NOT TRADE HIM

Yeah I don't see how trading Lincecum now would be a good idea. And especially for Alex Rios. Couldn't Sabean find someone younger than that? They would be better off going to the Mariners and seeing if they could get a Lincecum for Jones/Clement package

If the Jays are sticking to a Rios-for-Lincecum deal straight up with nothing else for the Giants, pass. Forget it.

Shame on you front office of the Giants if you actually do this deal. Rios will hit free-agency before you can even surround him with talent. Lincecum is poised to succeed NOW. Terrible move for a franchise looking to rebuild.

one more time sabe's, DON'T DO IT!!!

why do u guys want more then just Rios for Lincecum....do u guys not know how good this guy is ?

Larsen, when you have a pitcher who is mentioned in the same breath as Sandy Koufax by guys at ESPN, you get very hesitant to send him away.

If you watched Lincecum pitch, you could tell that he's got the stuff to dominate for years. He puts up huge strikeout numbers as well. And even though I think Alex Rios is an incredibly good player, you never trade a good 26 year old RF for a 21 year old ace. That just seems simple.

"why do u guys want more then just Rios for Lincecum....do u guys not know how good this guy is ?"

For the same reason you ask this, I ask it right back...

It's not the point of how good rios is. It has everything to do with what Lincecum represents to the giants, the organization, and most importantly the fans. With the post Barry era looming, we got our first taste of the future in Cain, then again with the electric Lincecum, and are ready for a complete rebuilding of the entire organization. Starting with them.
I think most of us are willing to wait it out, knowing we have these 2, along with zito, for 4, 5, 6 years. Building up our farm system and developing the very young and very good talent, like Villona, Burriss, and Fairly

jimmie brings up a good point. This team probably should target winning around 2010-2011, when Angel Villalona gets close to major league ready. That kid could end up being one of the games next big stars. I love thinking about what guys ilke him, Carlos Triunfel and Elvis Andrus, will be in a few years.

It has been since the years of will clark, matt williams, robby thompson since we developed and promoted our own talent to be the face of the franchise. 20 years! I think i'm in the majority when I say I'm ready to do it again. Looking through our farm system, I'm excited for what 2009, 2010 and for years to come look like. We are still reeling from the Nathan/Liriano/Bonser trade for A.J.. As well as the subsequent Accardo trade along with a few other minor ones. We cannot revisit this again with lincecum,(and i'm not comparing Rios to A.J.) even for a stud like rios. lets keep our talent, and face the fact that next years a wash, probably the next after that as well

As a Jays fan, I enjoy what you wrote, jimmie. I commend your down-to-earth views and takes on your team. You acknowledge that your prospects aren't better than everyone elses. Very nice post.

How could jimmie think that his farm system is better than most? The Giants farm system has almost nothing in it with the exception of a few quite good talents like Villalona, Sanchez and Schierholtz. I would definately say San Francisco has one of the worst farm systems in baseball though. What jimmie said shouldn't surprise anyone, what he was saying was essentially what he should say.

I think a lot of sense is being made, personally. The way I see it, both players are pretty close talent-wise. The only thing Rios has working against him that Lincecum does not, is that he is proven. Lincecum is not.

On the other hand, Lincecum will be cheap for longer, and let's face it... Pitching is gold. With the time Lincecum has before free agency, paired with the fact that pitching is more of a hot commodity... He does have an edge over Rios.

That's not even factoring in the emotional attachment that seems to be going on with Giants fans. Then again, I suppose I would feel the same way if Ricciardi were shopping McGowan.

And I think that it's going to take additional moves for this trade to be truly beneficial to both teams. The Jays had awesome pitching last year, and underperformed offensively. It's reasonable to believe they'll bounce back, but that's definitely not a given. Even with Lincecum, it's very possible they'll struggle. Then consider it from the Giants' side. Who would protect Rios in that line-up? He'd be pitched around, IMO.

As excited as I was at first about this as a Jays fan, it's sort of died off. I'd love to see Lincecum here, but I don't think it would work for either team unless everything falls into place. Basically SF picks up some more offense and the Jays trade for someone to add a little bit to the outfield to compensate for Rios.

I personally think this one is dead anyway, but you never know. Sabean still has not officially refused the offer and Ricciardi has not taken it off the table as far as I know.

Tim Lincecum was the reason Giants fans came to the games this year. I think fans enjoyed him more than Barry's HR record. He is an honest, humble kid who loves the game.

Pitching is the premium these days with less than potential aces making 13-15 million a season and aces making 18+...

Currently we have TWO potential aces under our control until 2011 and 2012 very cheaply. It makes ZERO sense to trade one.

Keep "Franchise" keep Fans

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