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Reds’ Krall Further Downplays Chances Of Hunter Greene Trade

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Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall has already downplayed the idea of trading from his rotation this winter, but the fact that he didn’t expressly state he will not trade ace Hunter Greene led to some fan bases, and surely some rival teams, clinging to the faint hope that Cincinnati’s top starter might be available. At this week’s GM Meetings, Krall again downplayed the idea of trading a starting pitcher and was a bit more forceful with regard to Greene in particular (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Krall still declined to speak in absolutes but came close when speaking about the possibility of trading Greene, specifically:

“…[T]hat’s a hard one to actually say, ’Hey, we’re going to trade the guy that has a chance to be the ace of your staff and top-of-the-rotation guy going into the postseason.’ We’re looking to figure out how to get better, but right now that’s not on the table.”

Greene, 26, is signed for another three seasons and owed a guaranteed $41MM in that time. His contract contains a club option that, if exercised, would bring his four-year earnings total to $60MM. He could slightly boost his 2028-29 salaries via All-Star nominations and Cy Young voting.

Cy Young consideration is hardly far-fetched for Greene. Early in the 2025 season, he looked squarely in the National League mix. A pair of groin strains wound up limiting him to 19 starts and dashing those hopes, but when he was healthy Greene turned in a 2.76 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate in 107 2/3 innings. A year prior, he gave the Reds 150 1/3 frames of 2.75 ERA ball.

Greene, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, is one of baseball’s hardest throwers and clearly one of the most talented overall pitchers in the NL — if not in all of MLB. Among the 78 pitchers who have tossed at least 250 innings since 2024, his 2.76 ERA ranks sixth, trailing only Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His 29.2% strikeout rate ranks eighth among that same set of pitchers, and the 21.1-point differential between his strikeout and walk percentages sits 11th in the sport.

The Reds could extract a king’s ransom for Greene, but it’s never seemed likely that they’d pull the trigger on moving a potential four years of control over a Cy Young-caliber arm who only just turned 26 — particularly coming off a late run to the postseason. The Reds need to add multiple bats to their lineup, and the front office isn’t expecting much of a payroll bump, but teams generally balk at trading this much affordable control over a player this talented.

The safe bet will be to expect Greene to again head up one of the game’s best rotations. He’ll be joined by Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer, with top prospect Chase Burns (another former No. 2 overall pick) the early favorite for the final spot. Top prospects Chase Petty and Rhett Lowder, both former first-rounders themselves, loom in the upper minors. Lefty Brandon Williamson and righty Julian Aguiar are on the mend from 2024 Tommy John surgery and should be options in 2026.

Given that wealth of pitching, other clubs will surely try to pry some arms loose. Singer has just one year of relatively pricey club control remaining (projected $11.9MM salary), making him the most prototypical trade candidate of the bunch. Lodolo has two years of arbitration control. Abbott has three. The potential return the Reds could extract from another club would improve with every additional year of control they’re willing to surrender, but as Krall has said in the past, dealing from the established group might simply necessitate signing a veteran to backfill those lost innings.

If the Reds are indeed loath to part with pitching talent, they could look into trading a controllable young position player for a more established hitter that’s closer to free agency. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz isn’t going anywhere, and the Reds only just traded for third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes at the deadline. But the Reds also have Matt McLain, Sal Stewart, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer on the roster and won’t find regular at-bats for the whole bunch. (Encarnacion-Strand’s stock is in the tank after two injury-marred, unproductive seasons.) Prospects Cam Collier and Edwin Arroyo aren’t too far from MLB readiness themselves.

There are ways to go about trading for an offensive upgrade without sacrificing much or any of the current rotation depth, and while the payroll isn’t set for a big increase, there’s still room to splash around some cash on the open market, too. The Reds currently have a payroll projection of about $97.5MM, per RosterResource. That’s before factoring in potential trades or non-tenders of arbitration-eligible names like Gavin Lux (projected $5MM salary), Will Benson ($1.7MM projection) and Sam Moll ($1.2MM projection). Cincinnati opened the 2025 season with a roughly $112MM payroll and finished close to $120MM. They could use a bullpen arm or two as well, but there should be space to sign at least one prominent bat in free agency.

Kodai Senga Garnering Trade Interest

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Mets right-hander Kodai Senga has already garnered trade interest from multiple clubs, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. The Mets aren’t known to be outright shopping the 2023 Rookie of the Year runner-up, but they’ve at least held discussions as they’ve been approached by interested teams.

Those who don’t follow the Mets closely might raise an eyebrow at the idea of a win-now club like the Mets trading a pitcher who carries a flat 3.00 ERA in 285 innings across 52 MLB starts. That includes a tidy 3.02 ERA in 113 1/3 innings this past season. However, Senga’s standing in the organization fell in the second half of the 2025 campaign. After a shoulder injury limited him to just one start in 2024, Senga returned on a hot streak, posting a 1.74 ERA in his first 13 trips to the mound.

That superlative production never appeared fully sustainable. Senga’s 23.9% strikeout rate was good but not great, and his 10.6% walk rate was nearly two percentage points higher than average. His .251 average on balls in play and 88% strand rate both seemed ripe for regression. Still, metrics like FIP (3.24) and SIERA (4.28) felt he was still a quality or at least serviceable arm even if his ERA was bound to take some steps back.

Senga sustained a calf strain in mid-June that sent him to the injured list for nearly one month. It’s a fairly innocuous-sounding injury, but whether he rushed back too soon or simply developed some bad mechanical habits while compensating for the resulting discomfort, the rest of Senga’s season was a nightmare. From July 11 through Aug. 31, he took the ball nine times and turned in a 5.90 ERA with a diminished 20.6% strikeout rate and an even more problematic 12.7% walk rate. And after allowing just 0.59 homers per nine innings in his first 13 starts, Senga’s HR/9 mark more than tripled during that miserable nine-start stretch (1.82).

The Mets optioned Senga to Triple-A — a move to which the right-hander had to consent — in hopes of getting him back on track. Senga, however, didn’t return to the majors in the season’s final month. The Mets rode a contingent of rookies down the stretch, leaning heavily on Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat in the rotation as the eventually narrowly missed a return to postseason play.

The fact that Senga didn’t return to the majors leaves him as something of a question mark. He made two starts in Triple-A following his demotion: one very good (six innings, one run, eight strikeouts, no walks) and another very poor (3 2/3 innings, four runs, two walks, one hit batter, four strikeouts). It’s difficult to glean exactly which version of Senga will show up. Outstanding as he was during his rookie season, injuries and this year’s second-half struggles have limited him to a total of 146 innings (majors and minors combined) across the past two seasons.

If the Mets had four healthy, mostly established other options in the rotation, it’d be easier to simply hope for a Senga rebound. They lack that stability, however. New York’s rotation will surely include McLean, who dazzled as a rookie. Veteran David Peterson finished with a respectable 4.22 ERA but faceplanted down the stretch, pitching to an 8.42 ERA over his final nine starts. Reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes had a successful move to the rotation but only pitched beyond five innings four times in his final 18 appearances and posted ugly strikeout and walk rates in that time (15.8 K%, 10.6 BB%). Sean Manaea posted a 5.64 ERA in just 60 2/3 frames thanks to injuries. Frankie Montas and Tylor Megill both had UCL surgery. Tong and Sproat have sizable upside but remain unproven.

Given all that tumult in the starting staff, rotation help is a natural priority for the Mets this winter. That only makes uncertainty surrounding Senga all the more confounding. On the one hand, selling low on a pitcher who has often looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm and is at least ostensibly healthy seems like a risk the team can ill afford to take. On the other hand, Senga’s uneven 2025 season is a driving factor behind the Mets’ current rotation instability. If they’re not confident he can get back on track, moving him now would be prudent. It’d only become more difficult to deal Senga if he suffers an early injury or pitches poorly despite a clean bill of health.

The Mets owe Senga $14MM in both 2026 and 2027. If he suffers a major elbow injury that requires surgery, a conditional $15MM club option would be tacked onto the deal. A total guarantee of two years and $28MM is eminently affordable, although the Mets are effectively paying double that amount since they’re being hit with a 110% tax on all dollars spent over the top tier of the luxury tax threshold.

Senga’s contract included a full no-trade clause covering the first three seasons of the five-year pact. That’s now shrunk to a limited 10-team no-trade list for the final two years of the deal. The list of teams to which he can block a move isn’t clear at present, but the Mets have more latitude to trade him than in the past.

New York certainly isn’t going to just dump the remainder of Senga’s contract for no return. There’s far too much upside, particularly relative to his modest salary. Any team looking to pry Senga loose will have to offer up some actual talent, though clearly not as much as Senga would command were he coming off a healthy, successful season. Then again, if Senga were coming off that type of season, the very idea of trading him would be a nonstarter for the Mets. Questions about his health, mechanics and results have at least nudged Senga onto the periphery of the trade market, but those same factors also make him an incredibly tricky asset on which to find common ground with another club.

Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz Indicted On Gambling Charges

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November 11: Ken Rosenthal and Zack Meisel of The Athletic report that MLB is hopeful of imposing discipline by the beginning of Spring Training. The pitchers remain on paid administrative leave, though obviously they’re not collecting salary during the offseason. If there’s no change to their status by the time games resume, the Guardians would need to continue paying them until discipline is formally imposed.

That doesn’t matter much for the Guardians with Ortiz, who had yet to reach arbitration. Clase had been slated to earn $6MM next year, though, and the Guardians would prefer not to pay that if the pitcher is unavailable. A suspension would get them off the hook for that money. Players found to have bet on games in which their team has been involved are given a lifetime ban. Attorneys for Clase and Ortiz released statements denying their involvement in the wake of the criminal charges.

November 9: Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz have been indicted by prosecutors in Brooklyn on charges involving sports betting, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN, among others. Ortiz was arrested earlier today. Clase is not currently in custody.

Clase and Ortiz are charged with “wire fraud conspiracy, honest services wire fraud conspiracy, conspiracy to influence sporting contests by bribery, and money laundering conspiracy, for their alleged roles in a scheme to rig bets on pitches thrown” according to the Department of Justice, relayed by Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The indictment details an alleged scheme that involves the pitchers purposely throwing balls so gamblers could bet on pitches being balls or strikes.

The allegations from prosecutors in the indictment include a specific incident on June 15, when Ortiz was paid $5K for throwing an intentional ball, and Clase received $5K for facilitating it. Co-conspirators won at least $400K on fraudulent wagers relating to Clase and at least $60K on fraudulent wagers relating to Ortiz, prosecutors allege in the indictment. (Meisel explored some of the incidents detailed in the indictment in a longer piece for The Athletic.) Clase and Ortiz face up to 65 years in prison if convicted on all charges.

“MLB contacted federal law enforcement at the outset of its investigation and has fully cooperated throughout the process. We are aware of the indictment and today’s arrest, and our investigation is ongoing,” the league said in a statement to ESPN.

Ortiz was placed on non-disciplinary paid leave in early July, and Clase followed later in the month. The pitchers had their absences extended “until further notice” at the end of August as the league continued its gambling investigation.

Photo courtesy of David Richard, Imagn Images

Cherington: Paul Skenes “Is Going To Be A Pirate In 2026”

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Every offseason there are at least a handful of high-profile players other clubs and their fans dream upon as the trade market begins to ramp up. Pirates ace and likely NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes may be coveted by every other team and fan base in the league, but general manager Ben Cherington was quick to stomp out any trade chatter before it even picked up. Speaking with FanSided’s Robert Murray, Cherington plainly stated that he will not trade his ace this offseason. Skenes “is going to be a Pirate in 2026,” Cherington said.

There’s little reason to think the Pirates would move Skenes at this juncture anyhow, save for owner Bob Nutting’s typically frugal habits. Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick from the 2023 draft, burst onto the scene early in the 2024 season, started the All-Star Game just a couple months later, won ’24 NL Rookie of the Year honors and is now poised to win the first of what could very well be multiple Cy Young Awards in his career.

Since taking a major league mound for the first time, Skenes has started 55 games and posted a comical 1.96 earned run average (1.96 ERA in 2024, 1.97 in 2025). He’s punched out 31% of his opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate and has only allowed 21 home runs in 320 2/3 innings (0.59 HR/9). Forty-seven percent of his batted balls have been grounders, and opponents have averaged a paltry 87.7 mph off the bat against him. He’s already staked a defensible claim to being the best pitcher in the National League, and were it not for the fact that Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is poised to win his second straight Cy Young Award in the AL, Skenes might well be the consensus top pitcher in the sport.

Trading Skenes somewhere down the road feels almost inevitable. If he continues this trajectory, he’ll have the opportunity to shatter contract precedents for starting pitchers. He already has two full years of big league service and won’t turn 24 until next May. He’ll reach free agency heading into his age-28 season. The thrifty Pirates almost certainly aren’t going to put forth a record-breaking extension offer, which is presumably already what it’d take to extend Skenes.

That said, Skenes is still under club control for four more seasons, and he won’t even reach arbitration until after the 2026 season. At least the first of his arb years will be affordable even by Pirates standards, and for a pitcher of this caliber it wouldn’t be surprising to see them hold Skenes later than some of the prior pitchers they’ve traded away with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Gerrit Cole, Joe Musgrove).

There was never really any expectation that Skenes would be traded this offseason — we didn’t include him on our list of the offseason’s top 40 trade candidates — but it’s nevertheless notable to hear the team’s baseball operations leader so definitively say a trade won’t happen. Most front office leaders tend to avoid speaking in absolutes of this nature, after all.

Beyond that, Cherington’s comment comes at a time when the Pirates are widely expected to make a bit more of a push for a return to contention. The 2026 season will be year six of Cherington’s GM tenure, and the team hasn’t topped 76 wins during his time running the club. Pittsburgh already dismissed manager Derek Shelton back in May — he’s since been hired as the Twins’ new skipper — and the baseball ops leader tends to be next on the chopping block after a manager is shown the door.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal said earlier today in an appearance on Fair Territory that agents he’s spoken to have already received signals from the Pirates that they’re planning to be more active on the open market this winter (video link). That doesn’t mean the Bucs are going to play at the top of the market, of course, but the 2025-26 offseason could see them step out of the bottom tiers of free agency where they tend to reside. Cherington himself told Murray that he has “more flexibility than we’ve had in [any] other offseasons I’ve been in Pittsburgh.”

As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, it’s been nearly a decade since the Pirates have signed a free agent to a multi-year contract. That’s not an indication that they haven’t made any multi-year offers, but the Pirates certainly haven’t been aggressive during Nutting’s ownership, whether under Cherington or predecessor Neal Huntington.

In an appearance on the MLB Trade Rumors podcast late in the season, Cherington acknowledged that he’s made multi-year offers to free agents — specifically free agent position players. Obviously, those offers have been rebuffed. Still, the sixth-year Pittsburgh GM made clear that he plans to continue those efforts, and there are now multiple indicators that he might have the financial latitude to be a bit more aggressive as he looks to line up on such a deal to add some offense to the lineup.

The Bucs could still trade some pitching to add a big league bat(s), but veteran Mitch Keller or 26-year-old Mike Burrows seem like more plausible candidates than Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft or Jared Jones (on whom they’d be selling low as he finishes off his rehab from UCL surgery).

Pat Murphy, Stephen Vogt Win Manager Of The Year

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For the second consecutive season, Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt have been named the Managers of the Year. Murphy received 27 of 30 first-place votes in the National League. The American League tally was closer, but Vogt picked up 17 first-place nods to keep his title.

Both skippers have won the award in their first two seasons on the job. They’ve each led a small-market franchise to a Central division title in consecutive seasons. Milwaukee won 97 games and played .500 or better ball in every month after starting the season 0-4 in the final few days of March. The Brewers coasted to another division title and held off the Phillies for the top seed in the Senior Circuit.

The Brewers seamlessly integrated a few quality rookies along the way. Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins, Chad Patrick and Jacob Misiorowski all made strong contributions in their debut campaigns. Milwaukee also weathered a series of early-season rotation injuries behind Freddy Peralta. A mid-April trade for Quinn Priester paid massive dividends. The offense, meanwhile, trailed only the Yankees and Dodgers in scoring despite the free agent departure of Willy Adames.

Milwaukee knocked off the Cubs in a five-game Division Series. They were swept by the Dodgers in the NLCS and are still searching for their first trip to the Fall Classic since 1982. Awards voting takes place at the end of the regular season, so the postseason performance is irrelevant.

While the Brewers were well positioned to make the playoffs by the end of June, the Guardians got in via a late-season run that surely surprised even the Cleveland front office. The Guards were deadline sellers and seemed more or less finished once Emmanuel Clase was placed on administrative leave. A ten-game losing streak dropped them as low as eight games under .500 shortly before the All-Star Break, and they trailed Detroit by as much as 15.5 games in the division.

The Guards went 14-13 in August before reeling off a 20-7 record in September to steal a division title. They never led the AL Central by more than one game but had the edge when it mattered, finishing the season at 88-74. That included a 5-1 showing against the Tigers in the final two weeks of the regular season. Detroit wound up getting the last laugh in October, though, going into Cleveland and bouncing the Guards in the Wild Card Series.

Murphy appeared first or second on all but one ballot in the NL. Cincinnati’s Terry Francona and Philadelphia’s Rob Thomson also received at least one-first place vote. They finished second and third, respectively. Craig Counsell, Clayton McCullough, Torey Lovullo and Mike Shildt all received votes. Toronto’s John Schneider was a close-runner up in the Junior Circuit. He received 10 first-place votes. Seattle’s Dan Wilson (the other finalist) and Boston’s Alex Cora also had at least one first-place nod. A.J. Hinch and Joe Espada received votes.

Full vote tallies courtesy of the BBWAA. Images via Imagn Images.

Nick Kurtz Wins American League Rookie Of The Year, Earns Full Year Of Service Time

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Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has been named the 2025 American League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. His teammate Jacob Wilson finished second and Roman Anthony of the Red Sox finished third in the voting. Kurtz, who was the unanimous choice for the award, will be retroactively awarded a full year of service time by finishing in the top two of the voting. The full voting results can be found here.

Kurtz was the fourth overall pick of the 2024 draft and came into 2025 as one of the top prospects in the league. He didn’t break camp with the club but was called up on April 23rd. Almost immediately, he started showing his talent for crushing the ball. Due to his late call-up and a brief injured list stint for a strained left hip flexor, he only got into 117 games, but that was still enough time for him to put the ball over the fence 36 times.

It wasn’t a perfect season, as Kurtz struck out at a high 30.9% rate. However, his 12.9% walk rate was quite strong. When combined with his aforementioned power, it was a very productive season. His .290/.383/.619 slash line translated to a wRC+ of 170. Among hitters with at least 20 plate appearances this year, only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani topped that wRC+ number.

It’s impressive that Kurtz did so much despite not even playing a full season. His late call-up also has notable implications for him and the club. The most recent collective bargaining agreement included measures to discourage service time manipulation. If a team promotes a top prospect early enough in a season for him to earn a full service year, the team can earn an extra draft pick if the player meets certain awards voting criteria, via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. On the flip side, if a player is not promoted early enough for a full service year and then goes on to finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting in his league, then he is retroactively credited with a full service year.

Kurtz came into the year as a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball, meaning he would have been PPI-eligible this year if the A’s had called him up earlier. He only got 159 days of service, 13 shy of the 172 needed for a full season. If he were PPI-eligible, this award win would have netted them an extra draft pick in 2026. Since they did not call him up early enough and Kurtz finished in the top two of the voting, he will get a full year of service anyway. That reduces the club’s window of control over Kurtz from six years to five, meaning he’s now on pace to reach free agency after 2030 instead of 2031.

Wilson is Kurtz’s teammate but the two are polar opposites when it comes to their offensive profiles. While Kurtz strikes out a lot but also draws walks and has huge power, Wilson has modest power and rarely walks but almost never strikes out. His 7.5% strikeout rate this year was the second-lowest among qualified hitters, trailing only Luis Arráez. Wilson only hit 13 home runs and drew a walk in just 5.2% of his plate appearances, but he still managed to hit .311/.355/.444 for a 121 wRC+ while playing the premium position of shortstop, even if his defense wasn’t highly rated.

The shortstop actually got promoted in July of 2024 but he landed on the injured list and missed enough time to still have rookie status coming into 2025. Despite having rookie status, he would not have earned the A’s a PPI pick even if he had finished first in the voting. Players are ineligible for the PPI bonus if they have at least 60 days of service time. Wilson earned 73 days of service in 2024, much of it on the injured list, meaning he was in a weird twilight zone of being rookie eligible but not PPI eligible.

Anthony came into the year not only as a top 100 prospect but most rankings had him first or second in the league. However, the Red Sox had a crowded outfield mix that was difficult for him to break into. Eventually, injuries opened a path and he finally got the call in June. By August, he had impressed the Sox enough that they signed him to an eight-year, $130MM extension.

Though he only got into 71 games, Anthony slashed .292/.396/.463 for a 140 wRC+ and stole four bases. He was credited with seven Defensive Runs Saved and six Outs Above Average. FanGraphs credited him with 2.7 wins above replacement in less than half a season. He would have pushed those numbers even further if not for an oblique injury sending him to the IL in early September.

Anthony only got 112 service days this year. He would have earned a full year if he had cracked second place in the voting, though that is largely a moot point with his extension. However, the result does impact him financially when looking at the details of his pact. The deal contains a number of escalators which Anthony can unlock via awards voting. Some extra money could have been tacked on with a top two finish but this third-place finish isn’t enough for him to add anything to the $130MM total. He can still push that up in the future by getting MVP votes.

Several other players received some recognition from the voters. Noah Cameron of the Royals finished fourth in the voting, followed by Colson Montgomery of the White Sox, Carlos Narváez of the Red Sox, Jack Leiter of the Rangers, Will Warren of the Yankees, Luke Keaschall of the Twins, Braydon Fisher of the Blue Jays, Shane Smith of the White Sox, Cam Smith of the Astros, Chandler Simpson of the Rays, Luis Morales of the A’s and Jasson Domínguez of the Yankees.

Photos courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Daniel Kucin Jr., David Richard, Imagn Images

Drake Baldwin Wins National League Rookie Of The Year, Earns Braves PPI Pick

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Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is the 2025 National League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Cade Horton of the Cubs and Caleb Durbin of the Brewers finished second and third in the voting, respectively. Baldwin’s win will net Atlanta a bonus draft pick after the first round in 2026, via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Horton earns a full year of service time from his top two finish. The full voting results can be found here.

Baldwin came into the year as one of the top prospects in baseball. Since he finished the 2024 season at Triple-A, he had a shot at a big league job to start 2025. However, Atlanta was set to open the season with Sean Murphy as the primary backstop. Rather than be a backup at the major league level, there was an argument for Baldwin to stick at Triple-A and get regular reps.

In early March, Murphy suffered a rib fracture, an injury with a timeline of four to six weeks. That opened the door for Baldwin to get an Opening Day job. He hit well in the spring and Atlanta added him to the roster prior to Opening Day. Though Murphy got healthy by early April, Baldwin had already started producing and he never really stopped. The two shared the catching duties fairly evenly for a few months, though Murphy returned to the injured list in September due to a right hip labral tear.

Baldwin finished the year with 446 plate appearances over 124 games. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .274/.341/.469 for a wRC+ of 125. That means he was 25% better than the league average hitter, though that’s even further above par for a catcher. Most outlets considered his defense to be a bit below average, but not by much. FanGraphs credited him with 3.1 wins above replacement on the year.

While Baldwin’s win is surely gratifying for him personally, it also benefits the team. The current collective bargaining agreement introduced measures to combat service time manipulation. If a team promotes a top prospect early enough for him to earn a full service year, then that player meets certain awards criteria, the team is awarded with an extra pick just after the first round in the next draft. Since Baldwin was a consensus top prospect who was up all year, his Rookie of the Year win gives Atlanta a PPI bonus pick in 2026.

Horton also came into the season as one of the top prospects. He had finished 2024 at Triple-A but with just five appearances at that level. He was sent back to Triple-A to start 2025 but the Cubs needed rotation help fairly early on, as Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga were both on the injured list by early May.

Horton was called up on May 10th. He stayed up with the club the rest of the way, though a rib fracture put him on the injured list late in September. He finished the season with 118 innings pitched, having allowed 2.67 earned runs per nine.

There was probably some luck in there. Horton’s 20.4% strikeout rate was subpar, though his 6.9% walk rate was good and his 42.3% ground ball rate right around average. His .258 batting average on balls in play and 78.3% strand rate were both to the fortunate side. ERA estimators like his 3.58 FIP and 4.26 SIERA feel his ERA should have been around a run higher, though the performance was still good enough for a second-place finish in the voting.

That is significant for Horton, as there’s a flipside to the aforementioned PPI bonuses for teams. If a top prospect is not promoted early enough in the season to get a full service year, he can earn one retroactively with a top-two finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. Horton only earned 142 service days this year, 30 shy of the 172 needed for a full season, but this vote result will get him bumped up to the one-year mark. That means he will be on pace to become a free agent after 2030 instead of 2031.

Durbin was not a top prospect to open the year, meaning PPI wasn’t a factor for him, but he had a good season regardless. Acquired from the Yankees last offseason, he was called up in April and took over the third base job in Milwaukee. He appeared in 136 games and stepped to the plate 506 times. He hit just 11 home runs and didn’t walk much but rarely struck out, leading to a .256/.334/.387 line and 105 wRC+. He also stole 18 bases and was credited with five Defensive Runs Saved and two Outs Above Average at the hot corner.

Several other players also received some recognition from the voters. Isaac Collins of the Brewers finished fourth, followed by Daylen Lile of the Nationals, Agustín Ramírez of the Marlins, Chad Patrick of the Brewers, Jakob Marsee of the Marlins, Jack Dreyer of the Dodgers, Matt Shaw of the Cubs, Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers, Nolan McLean of the Mets and Heriberto Hernández of the Marlins.

Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke, Jordan Godfree, Isaiah J. Downing, Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images

Kyle Hendricks To Retire

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Veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks is calling it a career. The longtime Cubs hurler, who spent the 2025 season with the Angels, is retiring, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Hendricks, now 35, will be forever associated with the curse-breaking Cubs but was originally drafted by the Rangers. Texas grabbed him with an eighth-round pick back in 2011. A year later, while in High-A, he was flipped to the Cubs as part of the July 2012 trade which sent Ryan Dempster to Texas.

He continued to climb the minor league ladder and debuted with the Cubs in 2014. He made 13 starts that year, logging 80 1/3 innings, allowing 2.46 earned runs per nine. His velocity was barely above 90 miles per hour but he showed strong command of a five-pitch mix, relying more on disrupting hitters’ timing than missing bats. He would eventually earn the nickname “The Professor” on account of both his cerebral approach to pitching and the fact that he went to Dartmouth College, an Ivy League school.

At that time of his debut, the Cubs were still looking for their first World Series since 1908 and were also rebuilding. Despite a strong debut from Hendricks in 2014, the Cubs finished fifth in the National League Central for a fifth straight year.

But the light at the end of the tunnel was getting brighter. Guys like Hendricks, Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta and Javier Báez were already on the roster. Kris Bryant hadn’t yet debuted but was the top prospect in baseball going into 2015. The Cubs made a big splash to signal a new era by signing Jon Lester to a six-year, $155MM deal.

In 2015, Hendricks got to pitch his first full big league season. He logged 180 innings over 32 starts with a 3.95 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.3% ground ball rate. The Cubs emerged from their rebuild, winning 97 games and nabbing a playoff spot. At that time, the Wild Card round was just a one-game playoff between two clubs. The Cubs got by the Pirates and then beat the Cardinals in the NLDS, felling two division rivals, but were swept out of the NLCS by the Mets.

The Cubs and Hendricks found another gear the following year. Hendricks led the majors in ERA with a 2.13 figure over 190 innings. He finished third in Cy Young voting behind Max Scherzer and Lester. The Cubs won 103 games and finished atop the Central. They beat the Giants in the NLDS and the Dodgers in the NLCS. The latter series was clinched by Hendricks throwing 7 1/3 shutout innings in Game Six. That set up a matchup against Cleveland in the World Series, which would eventually go to seven games. Hendricks got the ball in the final game and went 4 2/3 innings, allowing one earned run. The Cubs would eventually win the game 8-7 in ten innings. Hendricks had a 1.42 ERA over five starts in that postseason.

That ultimately proved to be a peak for the franchise and for Hendricks himself, though the team had a few more winning seasons and Hendricks continued to be a solid piece of the rotation. In March of 2019, he and the Cubs agreed to a four-year, $55.5MM extension. That deal was set to keep him at Wrigley through 2023, though the Cubs would eventually pick up a club option for 2024 as well.

By that time, Hendricks had seen his results slip. As mentioned, he was never a huge velocity or strikeout guy but those attributes had fallen further from par as he aged. That led to him posting a 5.92 ERA in 2024. After that season, he and the Cubs finally parted ways. Early in the 2024-25 offseason, he signed a one-year, $2.5MM deal with the Angels. He grew up in Southern California, so this allowed him to pitch for a team close to his roots for the first time. He made 31 starts for the Halos with a 4.76 ERA.

Overall, Hendricks pitched in 307 games and logged 1,745 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 105 wins and 91 losses. He made 146 quality starts, including six complete games and four shutouts. He struck out 1,373 opponents. Baseball Reference estimates he earned just over $86MM in his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate The Professor on a fine career and wish him the best on whatever comes next.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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The MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest is now open!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry is Thursday, November 13th at 11pm central time.  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that player will be excluded from the contest.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving  one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office for everyone who finishes in the top 15.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • The winners of this contest will be declared on March 25th, 2026, and any unsigned players will be excluded from the competition.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Kyle Tucker (#1 ranking) and Robert Suarez (#21 ranking) for a total of 22 points.  Steve gets Framber Valdez (#6) and Michael King (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

Tatsuya Imai To Be Posted For MLB Teams This Offseason

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The Saitama Seibu Lions announced (Japanese language link) on their official team website that they have accepted Tatsuya Imai’s request to be posted to Major League teams.  Once Imai is officially posted, he’ll have 45 days to work out a contract with a big league team, or else he’ll return to the Lions for the 2026 Nippon Professional Baseball season.

It has been over two months since reports first surfaced about the likelihood of Imai’s availability this winter, and today’s news officially confirms the three-time NPB All-Star as one of the most intriguing arms of the 2025-26 free agent class.  Imai has a 3.15 ERA over 963 2/3 career innings with the Lions, with a 22.31% strikeout rate and a 11.52% walk rate.  While that career walk rate is on the high side, Imai has reduced that number in each of his last four seasons, and he had a very solid 7.02% walk rate over 163 2/3 innings in 2025.

Imai is only 27, and doesn’t turn 28 until May.  Between his age and an intriguing four-pitch arsenal (headlined by a fastball in the 95-99mph range and a plus slider), there’s a lot to like in terms of how Imai’s success in NPB might translate against Major League hitters.  This upside led MLBTR to place Imai seventh on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and we’re predicting a six-year, $150MM deal even though some evaluators feel Imai projects as a back-end starter or even as a reliever in the majors.

Imai qualifies for full free agency next offseason, so the Lions may feel that they can at least earn some money back via a posting fee by letting Imai go now rather than 12 months from now.  As per the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system, any Major League team that reaches an agreement with Imai will owe the Lions a staggered fee depending on the size of the deal, and on any future earnings (i.e. options, bonuses, etc.) attached to that initial contract.

The Lions will get 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark.  So if Imai were to sign a deal matching MLBTR’s $150MM projection, his new team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee on top of Imai’s $150MM salary.

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