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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates were 54-52 on August 3 before a ten-game losing streak tanked their hopes of contention, and the Bucs ultimately finished with the same 76-86 record as they had in 2023.  Amidst some larger questions about how well the rebuild is progressing, there will be a clear focus on upgrading the lineup this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $88MM through 2030 (includes $2M buyout of $20MM club option for 2031)
  • Mitch Keller, SP: $69.5MM through 2028
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $43MM through 2029 (includes $6MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2030)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa, IF: $7.5MM through 2025 (Blue Jays covering roughly $1.22MM as per the terms of their July 2024 trade)

2025 financial commitments: $41.5MM
Total future commitments: $208MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Paul Skenes lived up to the hype, wowing the baseball world with a 1.99 ERA over 133 innings and looking all the world like a franchise player.  Though he was somewhat overshadowed by Skenes and spent almost eight weeks on the injured list due to a lat strain, Jared Jones also had an impressive rookie season.  Behind these two star rookies, Mitch Keller was his usual solid self, Bailey Falter pitched well in his first full season as a Pirate, and Luis Ortiz had a lot of success after moving from the bullpen back into the rotation at midseason.

Since Marco Gonzales' club option won't be exercised, this group stands as the Pirates' provisional starting five heading into Spring Training.  However, Johan Oviedo will also be healthy after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Down on the farm, top-100 prospects Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft are all knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, and other pitching prospects like Mike Burrows (who did toss his first 3 1/3 big league innings in 2024), Hunter Barco, and Anthony Solometo aren't far behind.

In short, Pittsburgh might soon become Pitch-burgh, with all of these young, controllable, and (except for Keller) inexpensive arms either in the majors or coming up the pipeline.  Developing this much promising starting pitching is no small thing, and with Skenes leading the way, general manager Ben Cherington can certainly point to the Pirates' rotation as the key to the team's rebuilding efforts.

However, this rebuild has now resulted in six straight losing seasons, with the last five coming under Cherington's watch.  While nobody expected Rome to be built in a day, the last two years have shown just enough promise to leave Pittsburgh fans disappointed when things fizzled out, and left wondering when exactly the Bucs will be turning the corner towards real contention.

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Pirates Sign Yohan Ramírez To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed right-hander Yohan Ramírez to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He will presumably receive an invitation to major league spring training.

Ramírez, 29, returns to the Pirates, one of several teams he has pitched for in his career. The righty has logged 169 innings over the past five seasons with a 4.58 earned run average, suiting up for the Mariners, Guardians, White Sox, Mets, Orioles, Dodgers and Red Sox, in addition to his time as a Pirate.

When his career started, he was on the wild side. He has reined things in more recently, but has sacrificed a few strikeouts in the process. Over the 2020 and 2021 campaigns, he struck out 29.3% of batters faced but also gave out free passes at a 15.3% clip. Since then, he has only punched out 20.3% of opponents but reduced his walk rate to 9.8%.

Ramírez spent most of 2023 with the Bucs but went to the White Sox via waivers in September of that year. He was out of options going into 2024, which led a very nomadic season. He bounced to the Mets, O’s, back to the Mets, then to the Dodgers and Red Sox via small trades or waiver claims. Boston passed him through waivers in August and Ramírez elected free agency a few weeks ago.

Around all those transactions, he tossed 45 innings in 2024 with a 6.20 ERA but average-ish strikeout and walk rates of 21.6% and 8.2%. His .346 batting average on balls in play and 59.4% strand rate were both on the unlucky side, which is why ERA estimators such as his 4.26 FIP and 3.84 SIERA paint a rosier picture than his actual ERA.

The Bucs are about to lose Aroldis Chapman, Jalen Beeks and Ryan Borucki to free agency, so they’ll quickly add a bit of non-roster bullpen depth by bringing back a familiar face. Ramírez still has less than three years of service time and can theoretically be retained for multiple seasons, but his out-of-options status will make it hard for him to hang onto a roster spot if he gets one.

Central Notes: Ecker, White Sox, Lynn, Cardinals, Pirates

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Reports surfaced last week that the Rangers had given permission for Donnie Ecker to interview with the White Sox about their managerial opening, but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) wrote that Ecker is no longer under consideration for the job.  Ecker will instead return for what will presumably be his fourth season as the Rangers’ bench coach and offensive coordinator.

Ecker’s departure from the search could simply be due to a personal preference to remain in Texas, rather than necessarily a sign that the White Sox are getting any closer to hiring their new skipper.  SoxMachine’s James Fegan described the managerial search last week as still being short of any official list of finalists, even though the team had already eliminated some candidates while still aiming to speak to some other names working for teams still alive in the playoffs.  Dodgers coaches Clayton McCullough and Danny Lehmann are two names linked to the Sox that might fit this description, though a wide range of names are rumored to be on Chicago’s list.  Most of the rumored candidates (like Ecker) would be first-time managers at the big league level, though Skip Schumaker and Phil Nevin both have past experience running MLB clubs.

More from both the AL and NL Central…

  • A pair of IL stints due to right knee inflammation limited to Lance Lynn to just two starts over the last two months of the season, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Lynn is feeling better “and expects to have a normal offseason of preparation.”  This is good news for Lynn as he heads into his 14th Major League season, and despite the knee issues, Lynn still had a solid 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings for the Cardinals.  Since the Cards are planning to cut payroll in a rebuild year, it isn’t a guarantee that Lynn’s $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) will be exercised, though St. Louis is probably more likely to pick up the option and then shop Lynn on the trade market this winter.
  • In other Cardinals news, Goold reports that longtime front office staffer Matt Slater is leaving the organization.  Slater has been with the team since 2007 working as a scout, director of player personnel, and (for the last seven seasons) as a special assistant to the GM in a player procurement capacity.  These roles meant that Slater was directly involved in the acquisition of several notable Cards players, and Goold notes that Slater was particularly influential in the team’s international scouting practices.  This resume drew Slater some attention from the Tigers and Phillies in past GM searches, and he probably shouldn’t have much trouble landing a new gig with another team.
  • The Pirates have hired Kevin Tenenbaum to lead their analytics department as the club’s new VP of research and development, according to reporter John Dreker (X link).  The 32-year-old Tenenbaum has spent the last seven seasons in Cleveland’s R&D department, working as the director in 2022 and then VP of the Guardians’ analytics team this past season.  This experience with another lower-spending team is surely of interest to the Pirates, especially given the Guards have been a lot more consistently competitive than the Bucs have in recent years despite working with generally comparative payroll.

The David Bednar Question

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David Bednar has been the subject of trade speculation for the past few seasons. For the most part, that was a testament to his effectiveness. Bednar broke out as a leverage reliever with 60 2/3 innings of 2.23 ERA ball during his first season with the Pirates in 2021. He carried that into the ninth inning. Between 2022-23, the big righty combined for a 2.27 ERA while striking out more than 30% of batters faced over 111 appearances. He locked down 58 games, including an NL-leading 39 saves in 2023.

That production came on rebuilding teams. Pittsburgh was nowhere close to the postseason. Other teams no doubt tried to pry Bednar away, but the Bucs never seemed interested in moving him. He’s a Pittsburgh native who looked like a lockdown late-game weapon. The Bucs control him through 2026 and surely envisioned fielding a playoff team before then.

Bednar could resurface as a trade candidate in the coming weeks but under much different circumstances. He’s coming off by far the worst season of his career. The question now is not whether the Pirates should sell high on an affordable, breakout closer. It’s whether to move on in a cost-saving measure at a time when his trade value has hit a low ebb.

Even with the understanding that reliever performance can be volatile, Bednar’s 2024 season is confounding. After rattling off consecutive sub-3.00 performances in his first three full seasons, he allowed 5.77 earned runs per nine this year. That’s not a reflection of poor batted ball results that could be dismissed as luck. Bednar’s peripherals tanked across the board.

His strikeout rate had landed between 28% and 33% in each of his first three years. That fell to 22.1% this past season, slightly below the league average for relievers. Bednar’s walk percentage jumped from the 7-8% range to nearly 11%. He allowed more home runs (nine) in 57 2/3 innings this year than he’d given up (seven) across 119 frames in the previous two seasons combined. Bednar lost a lot of whiffs on both his four-seam fastball and curveball compared to prior seasons. Opponents teed off on the heater, in particular, hitting .256 and connecting on six longballs.

Bednar started the season terribly, allowing 14 runs in 10 innings through the end of May. He managed much better results over the next two months, albeit without the level of swing-and-miss to which he’d been accustomed. Bednar missed a couple weeks leading into the All-Star Break with an oblique strain. The wheels came completely off coming out of the Break, as he gave up 16 runs over his next 14 2/3 frames.

The Pirates, who had plummeted from contention, pulled Bednar from the ninth inning at the end of August. By that point in the year, the focus was on getting him right going into the offseason. Bednar’s run prevention in September was better, as he allowed a manageable five runs (four earned) over 10 2/3 frames. Yet he walked another 10 hitters with nine strikeouts in mostly low-leverage spots. It wasn’t a resounding finish.

It’d be easier to explain the dip in performance if Bednar’s velocity had tanked coming back from the oblique strain. That’s not the case. His fastball averaged north of 97 MPH from the start of May onward. His 97.2 MPH average heater for the season was the highest of his career. Bednar didn’t lose any life on his splitter or curveball. His stuff hasn’t dramatically deteriorated. His results never consistently turned the corner, though.

That leaves GM Ben Cherington and his front office in a difficult spot. Bednar’s early-career dominance earned him a solid $4.51MM salary during his first run through arbitration. He’ll be due a raise even on the heels of a down year. Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate as a player accrues service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bednar for a $6.6MM sum if tendered a contract for 2025. That’s the highest figure in Pittsburgh’s arbitration class and would make him the fourth-highest paid player on the roster as things stand.

A $6.6MM salary would be a bargain if Bednar pitched at anywhere near the level he showed from 2021-23. It’s clearly not the kind of money the Pirates (or any team) would want to devote for his ’24 results. The Pittsburgh front office annually works with a tight budget from ownership. That didn’t stop the Pirates from committing a $10.5MM salary to Aroldis Chapman last offseason, suggesting they’re willing to take some chances on talented but volatile relief pitching.

They’ll weigh the risk on Bednar alongside the need for multiple additions to a well below-average offense. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great bullpen, though someone like Colin Holderman or waiver find Dennis Santana could get a closing opportunity if the Pirates dealt the two-time All-Star.

It’s unlikely the Bucs would non-tender Bednar. He should be too talented to give up without getting anything in return. A sell-low trade is plausible. There are presumably teams that have more budgetary flexibility than the Pirates possess that would be happy to gamble something like $6.6MM on a return to form. That’d be a tough pill for a Pittsburgh front office that has surely declined much better offers over the years than the ones that’ll be on the table this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Eight Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.

Catchers

Infielders

Pitchers

Mark Melancon Joins San Diego State Coaching Staff

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San Diego State announced that longtime reliever Mark Melancon has joined the school’s baseball program as the pitching development coordinator.  Melancon hasn’t pitched since the 2022 season, so this new job implies that the 39-year-old has ended his playing career after 14 Major League seasons.

“It’s exciting to be part of a staff that has great experience and a clear vision on what needs to happen to be successful at the highest level.  I’m eager to help these players compete for a national championship and hopefully move on to the next level,” Melancon said.

Assuming that Melancon is indeed hanging up his glove, he’ll finish his career with 262 saves and an excellent 2.94 ERA, over 726 2/3 innings in the majors.  As opposed to most bullpen aces, Melancon didn’t bring heavy velocity or big strikeout numbers, instead relying on superb control and a knack for keeping the ball on the ground.  Melancon had a 55.3% groundball rate over his career, the seventh-highest grounder rate of any pitcher in baseball (minimum 700 innings) within the 2009-22 timeframe.

Selected by the Yankees in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, Melancon ended up pitching for nine different clubs at the MLB level after he made his debut in the Show in 2009.  The travels started early, as Melancon changed uniforms via three trades in as many years — from the Yankees to the Astros at the 2010 trade deadline, from Houston to Boston in December 2011, and then from Boston to Pittsburgh in December 2012.  Though Melancon had seemingly broken out with a nice 2011 season, the rebuilding Astros still dealt him, and he then struggled through a rough season with the Red Sox.

The move to Pittsburgh brought both some stability for Melancon, and set the stage for the best stretch of his career.  Melancon became a dominant set-up man and then closer over his three-plus seasons with the Pirates, delivering a sterling 1.80 ERA and 130 saves over 260 1/3 innings in a Bucs uniform.  The right-hander was named to three All-Star teams during this stretch, and finished eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2015 after posting a league-best 51 saves.

Free agency loomed for Melancon after the 2016 season, however, and the Pirates weren’t going to pay top dollar for a star closer.  The result was yet another trade, as Melancon was dealt to the Nationals at the 2016 trade deadline, and he continued to pitch well for Washington throughout the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.

The big free agent payday then came that winter when Melancon inked a four-year, $62MM deal with the Giants, which briefly stood as the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  While Melancon had a respectable 3.67 ERA over 115 1/3 innings with San Francisco, it wasn’t the kind of elite performance that was expected from the hefty contract, and injuries also hampered Melancon’s effectiveness.

As the Giants entered a partial rebuild and looked to cut payroll, Melancon was moved to the Braves at the 2019 trade deadline, and had an uptick in results (2.78 ERA in 22 2/3 IP) during the shortened 2020 season.  A one-year, $3MM deal with the Padres followed that offseason, and Melancon enjoyed one final All-Star campaign by posting a 2.23 ERA and 39 saves for San Diego.  This led to a two-year, $14MM contract with the Diamondbacks in December 2021, but Melancon struggled in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 due to a shoulder strain.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Melancon on a terrific playing career, and we wish him the best as he moves into the collegiate coaching ranks.

Pirates Notes: Skenes, Bednar, Hayes

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After a difficult season that saw the Pirates flash signs of life in the first half with a 48-48 record before crashing to a 28-38 record after the All-Star break, Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington discussed a few of the club’s key players as they team now looks ahead toward the 2025 campaign and the coming offseason.

Chief among those was like NL Rookie of the Year favorite Paul Skenes. For all of the club’s faults this year, Skenes was the most obvious bright spot as he was nothing short of dominant practically from the moment he made his big league debut back in May. In 23 starts from then on, Skenes posted an eye-popping 1.96 ERA with an excellent 2.45 FIP. With a 33.1% strikeout rate across his 133 innings of work, Skenes was perhaps the most dominant pitcher in all of MLB this year. The one flaw in is otherwise dominant rookie campaign was volume, as Skenes threw just 160 1/3 innings of work in total this year between the major and minor leagues. That includes eight starts where Skenes failed to pass 80 pitches in his outing.

Fortunately, that seeming unwillingness to have Skenes pitch deep into games faded as his season continued, with the right-hander ultimately throwing more than 100 pitches in six of his 23 big league outings. What’s more, Cherington told reporters (including Alex Stumpf of MLB.com) that the hard-throwing righty could find himself unleashed completely next year. Cherington indicated that the Pirates do not currently plan on “any sort of hard limits” on Skenes’s innings or pitch counts headed into 2025, leaving the door open for Skenes to post an even stronger season next year should he be able to post something close to this season’s results over a full slate of 30 starts. The righty figures to headline Pittsburgh’s rotation next year, followed by Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. There’s some uncertainty at the back of the club’s rotation behind those three, but Johan Oviedo, Luis L. Ortiz, and Bailey Falter could all be in the mix for starts as well.

Looking beyond the rotation, Cherington notably also offered a vote of confidence in longtime closer David Bednar, who struggled badly throughout the 2024 campaign and was eventually removed from the closer role in late August. Bednar’s results improved over the month of September but his peripheral numbers remained shaky, as he posted a solid 3.38 ERA but walked (ten) more batters than he struck out (nine) across 10 2/3 innings of work. That left Bednar with an overall ERA of 5.77 on the year, and while his 4.80 FIP offered some reason for optimism even that figure was still worse than average as it was held back by a 10.7% walk rate.

Given Bednar’s brutal performance and a fairly considerable $6.6MM salary projection for next season courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club explore moving on from Bednar this winter. If that possibility is on the table, however, Cherington did not acknowledge it. On the contrary, Stumpf notes that Cherington suggested Bednar could even recapture the closer’s role in time for 2025. Even in spite of Bednar’s poor performance, such an outcome would hardly be a shock. After all, the club has few proven relievers under team control besides Colin Holderman and Bednar dominated to the tune of a 2.25 ERA with a 2.56 FIP over the 2021-23 seasons. If Bednar can even come close to that sort of production next year, he’d be well worth the $6.6MM investment via arbitration.

Now turning to the positional side, Cherington also provided a small update (as relayed by Stumpf) on third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. A former top-of-the-line infield prospect who enjoyed something of a breakout campaign in 2023 where he paired excellent defense with a roughly league average at, Hayes appeared sure to join Skenes, Jones, and Oneil Cruz among the club’s core this season. Instead, injuries derailed Hayes’s year completely. He was limited to just 96 games by a disc problem in his back that sent him to the injured list twice this year and left him playing through pain for the majority of the year when he was on the field. The injury marred campaign led to disastrous results, as Hayes hit just .233/.283/.290 in 396 trips to the plate alongside defensive numbers that were a far cry from previous seasons.

Difficult as 2024 was for Hayes, however, Cherington expressed optimism about the infielder’s status as he looked ahead to 2025. The GM acknowledged that there’s “always some level of concern” regarding an injured player until he’s once again on the field, but added that he believes the club is better informed about Hayes’s injury situation and that the third baseman is “excited” to return to action in 2025. When Hayes was unable to take the field this year, Jared Triolo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa were the club’s primary options at the hot corner this year. Both players are in line to return to the club next year and could continue backing up the position in the event Hayes struggles to stay on the field in 2025 as well.

11 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

34 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Designated Hitter

Pitchers

Pirates Parting Ways With Hitting Coach Andy Haines

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The Pirates are parting ways with hitting coach Andy Haines and bullpen coach Justin Meccage, report Andrew Destin and Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It’s not clear whether there’ll be other changes to Derek Shelton’s staff.

Pittsburgh hired Haines to replace Rick Eckstein over the 2021-22 offseason. The 47-year-old had spent the previous three seasons as hitting coach in Milwaukee and logged one year as an assistant with the Cubs. The Bucs ranked 26th in scoring over the past three seasons. They were 24th with 665 runs this year, while their .234/.301/.371 batting line placed them in the bottom third of MLB in all three slash stats.

As is the case with any coach, it’s difficult to judge their work based on the results alone. PNC Park isn’t an easy venue for hitters and the Bucs are light on proven offensive contributors beyond Bryan Reynolds and an aging Andrew McCutchen. Pittsburgh simply hasn’t gotten enough development from their young hitters in recent seasons, though. By measure of wRC+, only four of the 13 Pirates hitters with at least 200 plate appearances had above-average offensive performances. Reynolds and McCutchen were joined in that regard by Joey Bart and Oneil Cruz.

Bart, a reclamation flier from the Giants, dramatically cut his strikeouts and hit .265/.337/.462 in 80 games. The toolsy Cruz had his first 20-20 season, though he still struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. While this was a successful year for Bart and Cruz, the Pirates had a handful of disappointments.

Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski were expected to be key contributors but had terrible seasons. Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo didn’t make much of an impact. Former first overall pick Henry Davis has hit .191/.283/.307 in 99 games over the past two seasons. Buy-low free agent pickups of Rowdy Tellez and Michael A. Taylor didn’t pan out, nor did bringing in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Bryan De La Cruz provide a jolt at the deadline. That’s certainly not all on the hitting coach, yet there’s no question the offense has held the Pirates back from breaking out of a rebuild that’ll be entering year six under Shelton and GM Ben Cherington.

Pittsburgh added Meccage to the staff in 2018 as an assistant pitching coach. He moved to bullpen coach going into 2020 and has held the position for five seasons. Pittsburgh’s bullpen had the fourth-highest ERA in the majors this season, allowing 4.49 earned runs per nine. They ranked 20th in strikeout percentage (22.9%) while posting the seventh-worst walk rate (10%).

Pittsburgh coaxed a breakout year from waiver claim Dennis Santana and got decent production out of Carmen Mlodzinski, Colin Holderman, Luis Ortiz and $10.5MM free agent pickup Aroldis Chapman. None of those players are lockdown late-game weapons, though. David Bednar was expected to anchor the group out of the ninth inning. He had a very poor season, struggling to a 5.77 ERA with a dip in strikeouts and a spike in home runs to lose the closing job. Bednar had broken out as one of the game’s best relievers under Meccage’s tutelage between 2021-23.

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