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Nationals Win Draft Lottery

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Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Nationals
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rockies
  5. Cardinals
  6. Pirates
  7. Marlins
  8. Blue Jays
  9. Reds
  10. White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Rangers
  13. Giants
  14. Rays
  15. Red Sox
  16. Twins
  17. Cubs
  18. Diamondbacks
  19. Astros
  20. Braves
  21. Orioles
  22. Brewers
  23. Royals
  24. Tigers
  25. Padres
  26. Phillies
  27. Mets
  28. Guardians
  29. Yankees
  30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.

Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.

Dick Allen, Dave Parker Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

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Dick Allen and Dave Parker were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, as revealed by the Classic Baseball Era committee tonight.  Parker (14 votes) and Allen (13) each received more than the minimum 12 of 16 votes necessary for induction.  Tommy John was the next-closest candidate with seven votes, and Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris and Luis Tiant each received fewer than five votes.

Allen and Parker will be officially inducted to Cooperstown on July 27, along with any players inducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.  The results of the writers’ ballot will be announced on January 21.

Known in the past as the “veterans committee,” the Era Committee is a rotating panel of former players, managers, executives, team owners, media members, and historians who meet annually to determine which (if any) candidates from the past deserve election to Cooperstown.  Candidates include former players who weren’t elected or considered on the normal BBWAA ballot, or non-playing personnel that aren’t part of the writers’ ballot.  This year’s ballot looked at candidates whose biggest contributions to the game came in the pre-1980 “Classic Baseball Era,” though obviously a few of the candidates also had significant moments in their careers after the 1980 season.

Today’s news is undoubtedly bittersweet for Allen’s family and supporters, as Allen passed away in 2020.  He twice fell just a single vote shy of induction in past appearances on Era Committee/Veterans Committee ballots, and Allen didn’t receive much attention on the writers’ ballots when he was eligible.  At long last, the slugger has now finally been recognized by Cooperstown for an outstanding 15-year career highlighted by the 1972 AL MVP Award.

Allen hit .292/.378/.534 with 351 homers and 1119 RBI over 7315 career plate appearances with the Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, White Sox, and Athletics from 1963-77.  He kicked his career off with a bang by winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 1964, while also finishing seventh in MVP voting that same year.  Allen was a seven-time All-Star who twice led the American League in home runs, and had an outstanding 155 wRC+ for his career.

No discussion of Allen is complete without mention of his outspoken personality.  To his detractors, Allen was viewed as a disruptive malcontent who clashed with some fans, sportswriters, teammates, managers, and front offices, which was part of the reason Allen frequently changed teams despite his success on the field.  To his supporters, however, Allen was a no-nonsense figure who was more than willing to fight back against perceived injustice, especially when faced with racism as a black player in the 1960s and ’70s.  While Allen was often perceived as a bad influence during his career, many of Allen’s past teammates and managers have spoken out to counter that reputation, describing Allen in glowing terms as a clubhouse leader.

Parker also dealt with controversy during his career, as he battled a cocaine addiction in the 1980s.  This well-publicized issue may have been the reason Parker also garnered relatively little support on the BBWAA ballot, and knee problems also cut short his prime years.  Still, “the Cobra” at his peak was one of the best all-around players in baseball, with a resume that includes seven All-Star nods, two NL batting titles, three Gold Gloves, the 1978 NL MVP Award, and two World Series rings during his 19 Major League seasons.

Parker played his first 11 of those seasons in Pittsburgh, joining Willie Stargell as the heroes of that era of Pirates baseball, including a starring role on the 1979 “We Are Family” championship team.  Injuries and drug problems hampered the tail end of Parker’s time in Pittsburgh, but he rebounded with a four-year run with the Reds that saw him bank top-five finishes in MVP balloting in 1985 and 1986.  The Cobra then earned a bit more postseason glory on the Athletics’ pennant-winning teams in 1988 and 1989, capturing another ring with the latter A’s club.  Over 2466 games and 10184 PA, Parker hit .290/339/.471 with 339 home runs, 1493 RBI, and had a 120 wRC+ for his career.

This year’s 16-person Classic Baseball Era committee was comprised of HOF members Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Tony Perez, Lee Smith, Ozzie Smith, and Joe Torre; MLB owners and executives Sandy Alderson, Terry McGuirk, Dayton Moore, Arte Moreno and Brian Sabean; media members/historians Bob Elliott, Leslie Heaphy, Steve Hirdt, Dick Kaegel and Larry Lester.

Pirates Sign Tanner Rainey, Hunter Stratton To Minor League Contracts

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The Pirates have signed right-handers Tanner Rainey and Hunter Stratton to minors deals, as respectively reported by Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton (X link) and Stratton’s MLB.com profile page.  Rainey’s contract contains an invitation to the Pirates’ big league spring camp, and it can be assumed that Stratton’s deal also has an invite, though Stratton’s uncertain health situation in the wake of knee surgery could limit his participation in Spring Training.

Rainey heads to Pittsburgh after a topsy-turvy six-year run with the Nationals, highlighted by a World Series ring in his first year with the club.  Rainey delivered a 3.91 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate in 48 1/3 relief innings for that 2019 championship team, but also had an ugly 17.8% walk rate.  These control issues plagued Rainey for most of his time in Washington, and he also missed virtually all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

After Rainey posted a 4.76 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate over 51 innings in 2024, the Nationals unsurprisingly decided to non-tender the righty, even though Rainey was projected for a modest $1.9MM arbitration salary.  Now entering his age-32 season, Rainey will look to rebuild himself in the Bucs’ spring camp, and hopefully regain some of the form and velocity that made him a valuable bullpen asset for the Nats in 2020 and 2022.

Stratton was also non-tendered by the Pirates in November, but there was an expectation that Pittsburgh would (just as they did last offseason) re-sign the righty to a new minor league deal.  Stratton has an impressive 3.26 ERA and 4.9% walk rate across 49 2/3 career Major League innings, all with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons.  Despite a lack of big strikeout totals, Stratton’s ability to induce soft contact has made him an interesting relief option out of the Pirates’ bullpen.

Unfortunately for Stratton, his 2024 season was cut short by a flukish injury on August 24 that left him with a ruptured patellar tendon.  Stratton was behind home plate at PNC Park and pursuing a loose ball when he stumbled into the stone wall, causing the injury and putting his career on hold for an estimated 7-10 months.  This fluid timeline means that Stratton would return anywhere from Opening Day to late June, but the minor league contract gives him plenty of time to fully get himself right during Spring Training or in the Pirates’ farm system.

Pirates Re-Sign Isaac Mattson To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed right-hander Isaac Mattson to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com and relayed by the player himself on his Instagram page. He has been assigned to Triple-A Indianapolis for now but will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training.

Mattson, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Bucs for the 2024 season as well. He was selected to the roster in September and was able to throw 5 1/3 innings over three appearances, allowing three earned runs. He also got into four games with the Orioles in 2021, giving him a 5.59 ERA in seven major league games at this point in his career. He was outrighted off the roster at the start of the offseason.

That’s obviously not much of a sample size to make conclusions from, but the Bucs just got an up-close look at Mattson in Triple-A for most of the 2024 season. He tossed 60 innings over 29 appearances at that level with a 3.15 ERA. His 12.9% walk rate there was on the high side but his 29.8% strikeout rate was quite strong. That’s generally been the case for him at the upper levels of the minors. He has thrown 138 1/3 minor league innings over the past four years with a 4.10 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 14.5% walk rate.

There’s no harm in a minor league deal, so the Bucs will bring him back in a non-roster capacity. If he can take a step forward in terms of control, that would obviously improve his utility. If he earns his way back onto the roster, he is still has two option years and has very little service time, meaning he can potentially be cheaply retained in a depth role for quite some time.

MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
  • Why is Cody Bellinger’s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Brown, Cardinals

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The Pirates are making some changes to their front office, per a report from MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf. Stumpf notes that director of coaching and player development John Baker is moving into a new role with the club that will see him oversee the club’s performance team. While the move has not been announced by the club to this point, Stumpf adds that the search for a new farm director is already underway as Baker vacates the position.

A former player who spent parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, Baker retired from his playing career in 2015 and caught on with the Cubs in their front office that offseason as a special assistant. Baker eventually stepped into the role of mental skills coordinator with Chicago and remained in that role with the club until he departed for Pittsburgh during the 2020-21 offseason to take on his aforementioned role as director of coaching and player development. As Stumpf notes, the Pirates began implementing more individualized development plans for their players under Baker’s leadership.

With Baker now changing roles, the Pirates will need to fill both the farm director role. As Stumpf notes, that’s not the only high-level role that’s as of yet unfilled in Pittsburgh as the club will also need to hire a new director of pro scouting after moving him to a different, unspecified role within baseball operations. Those yet-to-be-named farm and pro scouting directors will join a wave of personnel hires by the Pirates this winter that already includes international scouting director Max Kwan, VP of research and development Kevin Tenenbaum, hitting coach Matt Hague, and assistant pitching coach Brent Strom.

More notes from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs fans received some good news yesterday when Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported that right-hander Ben Brown has been cleared for a normal throwing program this offseason. The 25-year-old was acquired by the club at the 2022 trade deadline in the deal that sent right-hander David Robertson to Philadelphia but didn’t make his big league debut until this year. The youngster looked quite good for the Cubs early in the season with a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work while swinging between the rotation and bullpen. He struck out 28.8% of opponents faced against a walk rate of 8.6% but saw is time in the majors cut short by a stress reaction in his neck that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Chicago reportedly plans to add a starting pitcher to the rotation alongside Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon this winter, which could leave Brown to either compete with Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring or else spend the year in the bullpen.
  • The Cardinals are hiring Matt Pierpont as their director of pitching, as Pierpoint himself noted on X (h/t to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times). Pierpont, 33, pitched in the minor leagues for seven seasons before catching on with the Mariners as a coach prior to the 2021 season. Since then, he’s risen within the organization to the role of pitching coordinator. Now, he’s been promoted again as he moves on to St. Louis, where he’ll be tasked with working to improve the club’s internal pitching options. Andre Pallante and Sem Robberse are among the young pitchers at or near the major leagues, while top prospect Tink Hence dominated the Double-A level and could also look to make his big league debut at some point in 2025.

Casey Sadler Announces Retirement

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Right-hander Casey Sadler announced his retirement from baseball today on X. In his statement, he thanks many people, including baseball fans, young players, his parents, his coaches and his agent.

Sadler, now 34, was selected by the Pirates in the 25th round of the 2010 draft out of Western Oklahoma State College. He worked his way up the minor league ladder, mostly as a starter, getting some brief big league looks in 2014 and 2015. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in October of 2015 and had to miss the entire 2016 season. In 2017 and 2018, he was back on the hill and pitching in relief a bit more but mostly in the minors, only getting into two big league games in 2018.

He was no longer on Pittsburgh’s roster at the end of 2018 and was able to become a free agent. He ended up having a bit of a breakout in 2019, split between the Rays and Dodgers. He signed a minor league deal with Tampa for that year and eventually tossed 19 1/3 innings for them, with a 1.86 earned run average. He was designated for assignment and flipped to the Dodgers in July, then posting a 2.33 ERA in 27 innings for his new club after the swap. He finished the year with a combined 46 1/3 innings with a 2.14 ERA. His 16% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.7% clip and got grounders on 51.8% of balls in play.

In 2020, he wasn’t able to build off that performance in the pandemic-shortened season. He was flipped to the Cubs and later to the Mariners, finishing the year with a 5.12 ERA in 19 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate jumped to 24.4% but he also gave free passes to 14% of opponents.

But an even better breakout than 2019 followed in 2021. He tossed 40 1/3 innings for the Mariners that year with a miniscule ERA of 0.67. He had a 25.5% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 62.9% ground ball rate. He moved up the bullpen pecking order, eventually earning 15 holds that year.

Unfortunately, he was never able to build on that incredible campaign. He and the M’s avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $1.025MM salary for 2022 but Sadler required season-ending surgery in March, before the campaign even began. He spent the entire season on the injured list and was outrighted off the roster in November. He re-signed with the Mariners on a minor league deal for 2023 but spent much of that year on the minor league injured list and struggled when on the mound.

Per Sadler’s retirement announcement, he recently thought he would require another Tommy John surgery but then found out the problem was mental. His wife had started a pitching lesson business, which she asked him to get involved in. Sadler says that working with the younger pitchers gave him a renewed sense of purpose and improved his mental health, but also reduced his own desire to play.

Injuries prevented him from being on the big stage for long, but he performed exceptionally well when under the lights. Sadler retires with 101 major league games under his belt and a 2.86 ERA in that time. He struck out 104 opponents, recording one save, 22 holds and six wins. We at MLBTR congratulate him on a fine career and wish him the best in all his future endeavors.

Free Agent Notes: Stratton, Martin, Hill, De Jesus

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The Pirates have non-tendered Hunter Stratton in each of the last two offseasons, and after re-signing him to a minor league contract last winter, a team source tells Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the Bucs want to do the same this time around.  Stratton suffered a ruptured patellar tendon in late August after a freak injury that saw the right-hander stumble into the stone wall behind home plate at PNC Park while pursuing a loose ball.

A subsequent knee surgery ended Stratton’s season, and he was given a recovery timeline of 7-10 months.  In the very best-case scenario, Stratton would be able to return on Opening Day, but the longer end of that timeline would keep him out until the end of June.  A clearer return date might emerge once Stratton gets deeper into his rehab, which also might impact when the Pirates or any other team might ink him to a new contract.  Stratton has a 3.26 ERA over 49 2/3 career bullpen innings over the last two seasons with Pittsburgh, with an impressive 4.9% walk rate and excellent soft-contact numbers.

More notes on some other players on the open market….

  • Chris Martin has suggested that 2025 will almost certainly be the final season of his career, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam believes Martin “likely looking to pitch closer to his Texas home.”  The 38-year-old Martin has spoken about his desire to spend more time with his growing family, so this could factor more into his decision-making process than necessarily chasing the biggest offers available.  Martin was born in Arlington and already pitched with his hometown Rangers during the 2017-18 seasons, and naturally the Astros would also be a logical destination if geography is Martin’s chief concern.  Martin figures to draw a lot of attention from teams all over the map, as he posted a 3.45 ERA and an elite 1.7% walk rate in 44 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2024.
  • Speaking of pitching close to home, Rich Hill told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) that he is open to pitching anywhere as he weighs whether or not to return for a 21st Major League season.  Hill lives in the greater Boston area and he pitched for the Red Sox in 2024, though the locale didn’t directly factor into Hill’s decision to join the Sox for the fourth different time in his career.  Hill’s desire to coach his son’s Little League team did impact his strategy of waiting until the second half of the 2024 season to sign, as he only landed a minors deal with the Sox in August.  When discussing his future plans earlier this month, Hill hinted that he would likely pursue a full-season schedule this time, though he hadn’t yet decided if he was going to pitch into his age-45 campaign.
  • Also from Morosi in another X entry, left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus is drawing interest from two unnamed Major League teams.  De Jesus posted a 3.68 ERA, 24.45% strikeout rate, and 6.04% walk rate over 171 1/3 innings with the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes in 2024, but the Heroes won’t be offering him a new contract for the coming KBO season.  The southpaw has a 4.01 ERA across 749 1/3 career innings and nine seasons in the affiliated minors, mostly with the Red Sox before pitching in the Giants organization in 2022 and the Marlins organization in 2023.  De Jesus’ only MLB experience came with Miami during that 2023 season, as he pitched 6 1/3 innings over two appearances and was hit hard for an 11.57 ERA.  While De Jesus worked more as a swingman in 2021-22, he has largely pitched as a starter throughout his career, including starting all 30 of his games with the Heroes.  A return to the KBO League with another team might be in the cards if De Jesus strictly wanted to start, or he could be open to a variety of roles if he is pursuing a path back to North American baseball.

Personnel Notes: Nakken, Giants, Guardians, Pirates

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Major league coach Alyssa Nakken has departed the Giants and taken a new role with the Guardians in player development, as noted by Maria Guardado of MLB.com.

Nakken, perhaps best known for being the first woman to serve as a full-time coach in MLB history, was hired as an assistant coach by then-Giants manager Gabe Kapler prior to the 2020 season. She remained with the club for five years in that role, even interviewing to replace Kapler during the 2023-24 offseason after he was fired just before the end of the 2023 regular season. The Giants ultimately decided to go with Bob Melvin in that role, but she remained on staff for the 2024 season in the same position she held under Kapler.

Now that the sides have parted ways, she’ll be joining former Giants coaches Craig Albernaz and Kai Correa in Cleveland under sophomore manager Stephen Vogt for the 2025 season. As noted by the Associated Press, Nakken will be an assistant director of player development with the Guardians, though her exact duties have yet to be determined. That could include determining whether or not she’ll travel with the team; after traveling with the Giants on road trips under Kapler, Nakken stayed in San Francisco during most road trips under Melvin after giving birth to her first child, Austyn, back in January.

Nakken’s departure is the latest among a number of coaching departures in San Francisco this winter. Pitching coach Bryan Price stepped down earlier this winter, while hitting coaches Pedro Guerrero and Justin Viele both departed the club to take jobs with other organizations. Price’s role has been filled by the promotion of assistant pitching coach J.P. Martinez, but the Giants remain in the market for a hitting coach to partner with Pat Burrell and may now be in the market for a replacement for Nakken as well.

More personnel notes from around the majors…

  • Sticking with the Guardians, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the club has hired Bobby Kinne to serve as director of baseball operations in the club’s front office. Cleveland hired Kinne away from the Rays, for whom he served as the club’s major league pitching strategist. Kinne got his start in baseball with Tampa as an intern back in 2018 and worked his way up the organizational ladder over six years with the club, serving as a scout and a coordinator of major league operations before landing in the pitching strategist role he held for the 2024 season. Now, Kinne will get the opportunity to work with one of the better pitching staffs in the big leagues as Guardians pitchers ranked third in the majors with a 3.61 ERA this year, behind only the Braves and Mariners.
  • The Pirates are promoting bullpen catcher Jordan Comadena to the role of major league catching coach, according to Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. Comadena joined the Pirates back in 2016 and Stumpf notes that he’s worked closely with former first overall pick Henry Davis on his defense behind the plate over the past year and a half. Davis, 25, has struggled in the majors at the plate and has moved back behind the plate after coming up as a catcher but getting his first MLB experience as an outfielder in 2023. He’ll likely be a potential option for the Pirates at catcher next year alongside Joey Bart, Endy Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.

Pirates Acquire Peter Strzelecki

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The Pirates acquired reliever Peter Strzelecki from the Guardians for cash, the team announced. Cleveland had designated the righty for assignment on Tuesday when they set their 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft.

Strzelecki, 30, spent one season in Cleveland. The Guardians acquired him from the Diamondbacks in a DFA trade just after Opening Day. He only made 10 big league appearances, allowing three runs over 11 2/3 frames. Strzelecki fanned nine while issuing a trio of walks. He spent the bulk of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Columbus, where he allowed a 5.01 earned run average across 46 2/3 innings. The ERA isn’t especially impressive, but he struck out 27.1% of batters faced against a 7.9% walk rate.

Cleveland’s bullpen was deep enough that the Guardians never had room to give Strzelecki a consistent look. He has fared reasonably well over parts of three MLB seasons between Milwaukee, Arizona and Cleveland. Strzelecki carries a career 3.44 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate in 83 2/3 frames. He’s out of minor league options, so there’s a decent chance he breaks camp in Derek Shelton’s middle relief group.

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