Archives for January 2012

Padres Notes: Quentin, Maybin, Zumaya, Venable

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2012 at 4:28pm CDT

The Padres have already pulled off two major offseason trades under GM Josh Byrnes, sending Mat Latos to Cincinnati and obtaining Carlos Quentin from the White Sox. “We’re not in total go-for-it mode, but we can make some choices,” Byrnes said, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Here are details from Center’s recent look ahead to the rest of the San Diego’s offseason:

The Padres acquired Quentin from the White Sox with the notion that they could extend him, Byrnes said.
The Padres have already discussed signing Cameron Maybin to a deal that would buy out one or two of his free agent years, according to Center. We heard late in December that the Padres were set to re-start contract talks with the center fielder, who’s on track to hit free agency after 2015.
No payroll model would have allowed the Padres to re-sign Adrian Gonzalez for $20-25MM per season, according to Byrnes. Former Padres GM Jed Hoyer dealt Gonzalez to Boston for prospects Casey Kelly, Reymond Fuentes and Anthony Rizzo last offseason.
The Padres were reluctant to offer Heath Bell a third year this offseason, Center writes.
The Padres could sign a pitcher or two before Spring Training and San Diego native Joel Zumaya is high on Byrnes’ wish list, Center notes.
Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner would like to see the Mariners pursue Will Venable, "probably one of the more underrated players in the sport."
The Padres figured prominently on Tim Dierkes' list of the offseason's most surprising trades so far.

Mariners, Orioles In On Hisashi Iwakuma

By Tim Dierkes | January 2, 2012 at 2:28pm CDT

2:28pm: The Orioles are in on Iwakuma, MLBTR has learned. New GM Dan Duquette has been active internationally, signing Tsuyoshi Wada and showing interest in Wei-Yin Chen, Yoenis Cespedes, and Chong Tae-Hyon.

2:03pm: The Mariners and two other American League teams are in the hunt for free agent starter Hisashi Iwakuma, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

The Mariners rumor has been kicking around in Japanese reports since Friday. A week ago, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that four teams inquired on Iwakuma, with the Athletics in that mix but with "lukewarm" interest. Iwakuma may have been on the Twins' radar, though they added Jason Marquis in late December. Both teams bid on him in 2010 via the posting process. The A's won with a $19.1MM bid, but could not work out a contract with Iwakuma.

Iwakuma, a member of the Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2011, posted a 2.42 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.45 HR/9 in 119 innings, battling a shoulder injury.

International Notes: Hanley, Marmol, Padilla

By Nick Collias | January 2, 2012 at 1:51pm CDT

Links are in Spanish…

Hanley Ramirez gave his clearest statement yet on a possible position change, telling the AP's Dionisio Soldevila on Friday, "I've talked with [Ozzie] Guillen, and what we both want is to win with the Marlins. When January arrives, we'll see what happens with the position change and everything else. If it's at third, fine. Wherever they put me, I'll do it in order to win." As for his surgically repaired shoulder, Ramirez described it as responsive and 95 percent healed.
Cubs closer Carlos Marmol has heard the rumors of his availability, and he told Julio E. Castro C. at Multimedios del Caribe that he's resigned to whatever the team decides to do with him. "It's their business," he said. "For good or bad, I have to accept it. My job is to pitch, not to handle team business. If I stay with the Cubs, great for me, and the same if not. I repeat: This is a business."
Vicente Padilla has been dominating hitters in his native Nicaraguan league over the last month, and the 34-year-old pitcher told Osman Rosales Cruz at El Nuevo Diario that he wants to sign as a starter with a Major League team. Yesterday, Cruz reported that the Marlins were eyeing Padilla, and in today's piece he describes asking the pitcher about the rumor: "'Truthfully, I can't talk about that,' Vicente insisted at first, but later he came up to me without the recorder and told me, 'Maybe.'"

The 6 Most Surprising Trades Of The Offseason

By Tim Dierkes | January 2, 2012 at 12:22pm CDT

Every offseason has a few trades most people didn't see coming. Here are my picks so far:

Reds acquire Mat Latos from Padres for Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger. The Reds have clearly been in the hunt for a front-of-the-rotation starter since last summer, but Latos' availability was surprising. Latos is a 24-year-old with a 3.37 career ERA and 93 mile per hour fastball, and he's under team control for four more seasons. He's the type of pitcher even non-contending teams are usually looking to acquire. As with the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez, perhaps Padres GM Josh Byrnes believed Latos was at peak value. Or maybe he just couldn't resist a chance to acquire the team's future first baseman, catcher, and closer, an intriguing wild card in Volquez, and the depth to move Anthony Rizzo to fill another need.
Blue Jays acquire Sergio Santos from White Sox for Nestor Molina. Most assumed the White Sox would move some players close to free agency, but Santos recently signed a contract that allows team control through 2017. He won't see his first $4MM+ salary until 2015, and only then if the first of three club options is exercised. The arguments for trading Santos: relievers have short shelf lives, the White Sox had good bullpen depth, and a top closer is a luxury on a potentially rebuilding club. Still, it's surprising Molina was the sole return. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein believes Molina projects as "a future No. 4 starter with some chances of being a three." The White Sox are banking on the righty to buck the industry opinion.
Padres acquire Huston Street from Rockies for Nick Schmidt at $1MM, Padres acquire Carlos Quentin from White Sox for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez. These two deals sandwiched the Padres' Latos trade and suggest a win-now mentality that doesn't mix with moving an ace. However, the commitments in prospects was minor for the Padres and both players are only under contract for one more year. Street and Quentin likely created surplus trade value for Byrnes, and the price for Quentin was surprisingly low. Plus, we can't say for sure the Latos trade worsened the 2012 Padres until we see how Byrnes sorts out his current logjams.
Red Sox acquire Mark Melancon from Astros for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland. Melancon, the former Astros' closer, is under team control for five more seasons and therefore was generally assumed unavailable. The Santos and Melancon trades suggest a newfound willingness to move relievers in their prime, which makes you wonder what a Kenley Jansen or Greg Holland could fetch.
Diamondbacks acquire Trevor Cahill, Craig Breslow, and cash from Athletics for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook. Most people assumed Gio Gonzalez would be moved rather Cahill, and instead A's GM Billy Beane traded both. The Santos and Cahill trades remind us that long-term extensions don't take players off the trade market. It was also surprising that the D'Backs targeted Cahill and were willing to surrender Parker. GMs are less attached to top prospects they didn't acquire, though — Parker wasn't a Kevin Towers draft pick, and Rizzo wasn't a Byrnes acquisition.
Angels acquire Chris Iannetta from Rockies for Tyler Chatwood. Here's another example: Jerry Dipoto didn't draft Chatwood. Dipoto was willing to move six years of the 22-year-old righty for the more immediate impact brought by one year of Iannetta. The Rockies, meanwhile, may feel there's little difference between Iannetta and new catcher Ramon Hernandez for 2012.

Remaining One-Year Deal Starters

By Tim Dierkes | January 2, 2012 at 9:15am CDT

So far this offseason, starting pitchers Erik Bedard, Freddy Garcia, Chien-Ming Wang, and Jason Marquis have signed one-year deals. On average, they're guaranteed just under $4MM apiece. This type of starter can return great value, as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently explained. Who are the remaining free agent starters expected to sign one-year deals?

As our free agent tracker shows, the starting pitching market is rife with one-year deal candidates. Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Hisashi Iwakuma, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Paul Maholm, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, and Joe Saunders should all be in line for Major League deals. Jackson is a lock for a multiyear deal, while Chen, Maholm, and Saunders have good shots. Kuroda and Oswalt seem to prefer one year, and are popular targets. Guys like Colon and Francis are coming off solid seasons and have cases for multiyear deals, since Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Bruce Chen were able to get two years. Francis has a better chance than Colon, but those two-year offers are going to dry up shortly.

Starters such as Aaron Cook, Kyle Davies, Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Ross Ohlendorf, Tim Wakefield, and Chris Young are also on the market. Hernandez and Millwood have the best arguments for big league deals. In January, 40-man rosters generally have some room, but not so much once we hit February.

Extension Candidate: Justin Masterson

By Tim Dierkes | January 2, 2012 at 8:16am CDT

The Indians have extended starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and Fausto Carmona in the last decade, in most cases getting cost savings and extra free agent years in the process. Fresh off a breakout season, could 26-year-old Indians righty Justin Masterson be next?

Masterson's 2011 season featured career-bests in innings (216), ERA (3.21), walk rate (2.7 per nine), home run rate (0.46 per nine) and wins (12). His always-strong groundball rate held up, and his 6.6 K/9 was acceptable. The knock on Masterson has always been his difficulty retiring left-handed batters. Though he wasn't able to put them away with strikeouts, Masterson limited his walks against left-handed batters and posted a 3.88 xFIP against them. In general, he might not be able to maintain 2011's 6.3% home run per flyball rate, but Masterson still remains capable of a sub-4.00 ERA.

Masterson has three years and 108 days of Major League service, so he's arbitration eligible for the first time this winter. Matt Swartz's projections call for a $3.6MM salary in 2012. Masterson's arbitration case may be tied to the fates of other first-time starters such as Jeff Niemann, Max Scherzer, and Matt Harrison this year, among others.

In recent times, extensions for pitchers with three to four years of service have been rare. Perhaps once a player is on the cusp of his first big payday through arbitration, he prefers to see that through for at least one year. If an extension is preferable to Masterson, his agent Randy Rowley could look to Johnny Cueto's contract, signed a year ago with the Reds. At an even three years, Cueto had less service time than Masterson, one reason Masterson bests Cueto by 82 2/3 innings. Cueto still managed four more wins, but they're otherwise comparable, with the career and platform year ERA edge going to Masterson. The numbers converge further if we only look at Masterson's 87 career starts.

Cueto signed a four-year, $27MM deal. He received $16.2MM for his three arbitration years and $10MM for his first free agent year, with a club option at the same price for another. The same contract would be a reasonable target for Masterson, perhaps with a few hundred thousand tacked on so he could top Cueto.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Extension Candidate: Sean Marshall

By Dan Mennella | January 1, 2012 at 10:46pm CDT

While Cubs closer Carlos Marmol grabbed attention the past couple years for his staggering strikeout rate and spectacularly excruciating blown saves, North Siders fans and fantasy owners in holds leagues alike will tell you that left-hander Sean Marshall was something of an underappreciated gem in Chicago's bullpen.

Indeed, after struggling as a starter early in his career, Marshall, 29, has settled in nicely as a reliever, serving as a dominant setup man in his two seasons spent exclusively in the bullpen. Last year was his finest, as the southpaw posted a 2.26 ERA, 9.40 K/9, 2.02 BB/9, 57.5% groundball rate and compiled 2.8 WAR. Apparently, the Cubs' division rivals took note, as Marshall changed uniforms within the NL Central in December, joining the Reds in a seemingly out-of-nowhere trade that sent Travis Wood back to the Cubs.

Marshall is set to earn $3.1MM in 2012 and is scheduled to hit free agency after the season, although Reds GM Walt Jocketty indicated that Marshall's foray into the open market may never come to fruition: "No guarantees, but we're going to try to sign him." Interestingly, Jocketty also said the Reds have not yet deterimed Marshall's role and left open the possibility of the left-hander closing, contingent upon whether they sign someone else to handle the ninth.

While we could debate the merits of strict bullpen distinctions such as "setup men" and "closers," the fact is that pitchers in those respective groups are usually compensated differently. So the uncertainty regarding Marshall's role and the Reds' interest in, or ability to, procure a so-called closer may be more than a minor footnote to the trade, at least with respect to Marshall's next contract.

If Marshall and his representatives at Meister Sports Management are amenable to signing an extension now – and reading the tea leaves from Jocketty's comments, they might be – they'll likely use the three-year, $15MM deal lefty Scott Downs signed with the Angels last offseason as a starting point in negotiations. And in light of the big contracts relievers have been securing this offseason, an annual average salary of $5MM is probably modest, so it could be bumped up from there.

The bird-in-hand philosophy could probably make Marshall a wealthy man before he even throws a pitch in 2012, but if he wants to leave open the possibility of getting paid like a closer, he could opt to play out his contract year. This would be an especially risky tack for a reliever, who are notoriously volatile from year to year, but could prove lucrative if Marshall is thrust into closing, approximates his 2011 numbers and hits free agency as a 30-year-old coming off a season in which he sewed up 35 or 40 saves.

While there are a few conditions that have to fall into place in that scenario for Marshall before we get ahead of ourselves, it's worth noting that Ryan Madson basically followed a similar arc and positioned himself for a windfall heading into this offseason.

No Leader In Garza Trade Talks

By Dan Mennella | January 1, 2012 at 9:22pm CDT

Matt Garza trade discussions have heated up over the past few days, but there's not yet any favorite to obtain the Cubs right-hander, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who adds that the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Red Sox and Marlins are all in the mix.

With the Cubs thought to be seeking young pitchers to replenish their farm system, the Yankees, Blue Jays and Tigers may ultimately hold an edge in pursuing Garza, Heyman speculates, as those clubs have pitching prospects and may be willing to spare them.

The Red Sox previously cited Garza as a compensation target for losing former GM Theo Epstein to the Cubs, according to Heyman, although it's not known whether they would pursue Garza as part of that compensation deal or separately.

MLBTR Originals: 12/25/11 – 12/31/11

By Dan Mennella | January 1, 2012 at 8:30pm CDT

There was no shortage of insightful original work published here at MLBTR during a slow news week. Here's a refresher in case you missed any of it the first time around …

The Cubs closed in on a deal with free agent catcher Jason Jaramillo, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes learned.
The Blue Jays signed left-hander Aaron Laffey to a split contract, Tim learned.
Luke Adams looked at Giants righty Matt Cain as an extension candidate.
Tim broke down the combined payrolls of MLB's teams by division. Yes, the AL East is in the front of the pack.
Tim listed the 10 best remaining free agents and their possible destinations.
Which agencies and GMs are most prone to hammering out extensions? Tim had a look.
Tim compiled a list of arbitration eligible players who are candidates to sign extensions.
Is your team searching for some pop in its lineup? Mike Axisa rounded up a list of a dozen power hitters who are still on the free-agent market.
The Rays are known for extending their young players and could buy out Matt Joyce's years of arbitration eligibility, explained Mike.
While the Giants may be focused on extending Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, Tim explored Madison Bumgarner's candidacy for an extension.
Ben Nicholson-Smith checked in on the seven clubs that finished between 80-89 wins in 2011.
With Phillies lefty Cole Hamels only a year away from a potential trip to free agency, Ben had a look at the southpaw's prospects for an extension.
Ben examined what John Danks' extension could mean for Matt Garza, who is under team control for two more seasons.
Tim held the weekly MLBTR chat. Here's the transcript.
What have the teams with the lowest-scoring offenses in 2011 done so far this offseason? Ben checked in.
Yu Darvish, Andrew Bailey and Michael Pineda were among the many topics covered in this week's batch of links from Baseball Blogs Weigh In, as rounded up by Mike.
In an interesting thinkpiece, GMs from both the NBA and MLB spoke to Ben about what each sport can learn from the other.
Mike compiled a list of remaining free agent relievers who have the ability to rack up strikeouts.
Tyler Clippard has emerged as one of baseball's best relievers the past couple seasons, and he may be in line for an extension, as Mike explained.

Week In Review: 12/25/11 – 12/31/11

By Dan Mennella | January 1, 2012 at 7:15pm CDT

A pair of notable trades were the highlights of a relatively quiet final week of 2011. Here's a look back at what went down …

The Red Sox acquired closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney from the Athletics in exchange for outfielder Josh Reddick and minor leaguers Miles Head and Raul Alcantara.
The Padres acquired outfielder Carlos Quentin from the White Sox in exchange for minor league pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.
The Giants and ace Tim Lincecum remained far apart on a potential contract extension.
The Cubs intensified trade talks regarding right-hander Matt Garza. The Tigers are in the mix, as are the Marlins.
The Blue Jays agreed to sign reliever Darren Oliver to a one-year contract with a club option for 2013.
The Yankees agreed to sign reserve outfielder Andruw Jones.
The Mariners signed lefty reliever George Sherrill.
The Tigers made it be known that they'd be willing to trade right-hander Jacob Turner.
Lastings Milledge signed a one-year deal with a club option for 2013 with the Yakult Swallows of NPB.
Prince Fielder's agent insisted that the free agent first baseman does not prefer a short-term contract to a long-term deal.
The Nationals officially announced the signing of utility man Mark DeRosa.
The Yankees may have dropped out of the bidding for free agent starter Hiroki Kuroda.
The Cubs signed right-hander Andy Sonnanstine to a split contract.
The Yankees signed left-handed reliever Hideki Okajima to a minor league contract.
The Giants signed right-hander Boof Bonser to a minor league contract.
Melvin Mora called it a career.
The Athletics expressed strong interest in Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler.
The Orioles continued conversations with the representatives for free agent lefty Joe Saunders.
Two teams expressed "viable" interest in free agent Japanese right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma.
The Mariners expressed interest in signing free agent right-hander Kevin Millwood.
The Diamondbacks signed Cuban left-hander Alexander Carreras.
The Cubs signed a pair of Cuban prospects.
The Astros interviewed ESPN analyst Keith Law for several front office positions.

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