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AL Central Notes: Lugo, Royals, Twins, Vazquez, Kelly

By Mark Polishuk | November 25, 2023 at 9:54am CDT

Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes.  That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.

The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around.  After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023.  This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services.  Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers.  Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins’ roster is broken down by The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes, including some talk of potential offseason moves and target areas.  With Christian Vazquez’s name recently surfacing in trade rumors, Gleeman and Hayes agree that a deal is possible, but Gleeman notes that Minnesota would likely have to eat a good portion of the $20MM remaining on Vazquez’s contract to facilitate a deal, and thus “trading him may not even save that much money, in which case there’s really no reason to do it.”  Hayes thinks a Vazquez trade might be more likely to come closer to midseason, theoretically after Vazquez has rebuilt some of his value with a solid performance in the first few months of the 2024 campaign.
  • Sticking with the Twins, their plan to cut payroll has been the big headline of the Minnesota offseason.  In a mailbag piece with readers, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune hears from a player agent that the Twins will be much more likely to pursue upgrades via trades before they “seriously” look at free agent signings.  Offering backloaded contracts to free agents also doesn’t make much sense, either for the free agents themselves or for the Twins, as Nightengale notes that Minnesota will want to save future money for its own players (i.e. for arbitration raises or contractually-manded raises).
  • It has been a tough few years for Carson Kelly, as injuries and a lack of performance have sidetracked the career of the former top prospect and seeming breakout catcher during his days with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks.  Kelly signed with the Tigers after being released by the D’Backs in August, and the catcher will be staying in Motown as Jake Rogers’ backup after the Tigers exercised their $3.5MM club option on his services for 2024.  With his immediate future now secure, Kelly tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press that the next step is to spend the offseason fixing his swing mechanics, as well as working on catching from a one-knee stance as opposed to a traditional crouch.  “It’s for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone, and I’m already in a better position to block….It just puts me in a better position to react to wherever the ball is,” Kelly said.
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Twins Interested In Kenta Maeda Reunion

By Darragh McDonald | November 25, 2023 at 7:38am CDT

TODAY: Negotiations between Maeda and the Tigers “have intensified in recent days,” according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).

NOVEMBER 24: Free agent right-hander Kenta Maeda reportedly has “serious” interest from the Tigers but a reunion with the Twins is still possible. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that both the Tigers and Twins are interested in Maeda, though there’s nothing to indicate his market his limited to just those two clubs.

Maeda, 36 in April, has a long track record of being an effective major leaguer, with an earned run average of 3.92 in 190 games dating back to 2016. The last few years have been fairly inconsistent, with high highs and low lows. In 2020, he posted an ERA of 2.70 in 11 starts during the shortened season, finishing second to Shane Bieber in Cy Young voting. But his ERA jumped to 4.66 the next year and he ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John, on his throwing elbow.

He was able to get back on the mound in 2023 and finished the year with a 4.23 ERA, though that figure disguises how good he actually was. In his fourth outing of the year, he was pummelled for 10 earned runs in three innings against the Yankees and went on the injured list due to a triceps strain right after. He returned in June and put up an ERA of 3.36 the rest of the way, striking out 29% of opponents while walking just 7%. Any pitcher will look better if you ignore their worst start but it seems fair to conclude that Maeda wasn’t 100% healthy in that nightmare outing against the Yanks. Despite his age and recent inconsistency, MLBTR predicted he could get a two-year, $36MM contract based on his strong second half and previous track record.

That the Twins are interested in a reunion makes sense on a couple of fronts. At the end of the 2023 campaign, they lost not only Maeda but also Sonny Gray to free agency, subtracting two key pieces from the rotation. Chris Paddack returned from his own Tommy John rehab and could perhaps soften the blow of those departures, but the starting rotation is clearly weaker than it was not too long ago. Paddack should slot in somewhere with Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, giving the club four solid options. Louie Varland had some home run troubles in the majors last year but showed enough potential there and in Triple-A that he could be considered a reasonable fifth starter. But he still has a couple of options and just 94 innings of big league experience to his name, making it sensible to bump him down to the sixth spot.

The club has also generally avoided long-term contracts for free agent pitchers since Derek Falvey took over as the club’s primary baseball decision maker after the 2016 season. They did give a four-year extension to López but the largest contract they’ve given to a pitcher apart from that was the two-year, $20MM deal for Michael Pineda back in 2019. Multiple reports in recent weeks have suggested that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high, but Maeda’s age will prevent his market from going too crazy, which would suit the M.O. of the Twins.

It might also work with their specific financial concerns, as uncertainty around their broadcast rights is seemingly going to cause a reduction in payroll. They had an Opening Day payroll of $154MM in 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but could potentially wind up in the $125-140MM range in 2024. Roster Resource estimates that they are already at $125MM, which perhaps doesn’t leave a ton of room for an estimated $18MM salary for Maeda. But they also have a potential surplus of position players and could perhaps free up some extra cash that way.

Jorge Polanco is making $10.5MM in 2024, with a $750K buyout on a 2025 club option. Max Kepler is making $10MM and is slated for free agency after. Christian Vázquez has two years and $20MM left on his deal. Kyle Farmer is projected for a salary of $6.6MM in his final arbitration season. Those players have all either been in trade rumors or speculated as candidates, with the club having enough position player talent to theoretically move someone and still have a strong core. If the club ends up flipping one or more of these guys, it becomes easier to see them fitting Maeda into the budget.

Ultimately, Maeda is probably just one of many options the Twins are considering. Similarly, while the Tigers and Twins have been specifically connected to Maeda, it seems fair to expect that there are far more clubs at the table. The fierce competition for rotation help has led to roughly half the league reportedly checking in on pitchers from Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Seth Lugo, while even Noah Syndergaard is drawing interest despite a nightmare season in 2023.

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MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | November 22, 2023 at 11:58pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
  • The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
  • The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
  • Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
  • Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
  • ..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
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How Aggressive Will The Tigers Be This Winter?

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2023 at 4:35pm CDT

The ill-fated Miguel Cabrera extension is off the books in Detroit, leading to the most payroll flexibility the team has had in quite some time. As it stands, the only three players on guaranteed contracts for the 2024 season are Javier Baez, Mark Canha and Carson Kelly. That trio combines for $40MM in guaranteed salary. Only Baez is signed beyond the 2024 season. Detroit also has a small arbitration class. Left-hander Tarik Skubal, righty Casey Mize, catcher Jake Rogers and outfielder Akil Baddoo project to earn a combined $7.5MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample payroll space available in the Motor City. Detroit trotted out a payroll as high as $200MM back in 2017, albeit under the ownership of the late Mike Ilitch. Since his son, Chris, took over as the team’s control person, the Tigers haven’t fielded an Opening Day payroll north of $135MM. Then again, the Tigers have been rebuilding for much of Chris’ time in charge of the club, so aggressive spending hasn’t typically on the radar.

Many Tigers fans entered the current offseason expecting some degree of change in that regard, however. The AL Central is perhaps the sport’s weakest division, and the Tigers have some interesting young players emerging to form a core group. Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene both took big steps forward in 2023. Skubal returned from flexor surgery and pitched like a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm. Reese Olson looks like a mid-rotation piece. Kerry Carpenter has swatted 26 homers and hit .277/.334/.473 in his first 149 big league games. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize will come back from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Jason Foley, Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Alex Lange all had nice years in the bullpen (Lange’s command issues notwithstanding). It’s easy to see the reasons for optimism.

At the same time, that doesn’t necessarily portend a return to the Tigers’ former status as one of the league’s most aggressive offseason spenders. For one thing, the now-former front office regime helmed by Al Avila attempted to reestablish the Tigers as just that when signing Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The former hasn’t worked out at all and now stands as one of baseball’s most immovable/undesirable contracts. The latter performed well enough to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM after an uneven tenure in Detroit.

New president of baseball operations Scott Harris will surely be wary of further saddling the team with unwanted contracts. His most recent organization — the Giants, where he was GM — has a recent track record of clearly preferring shorter-term, manageable commitments in free agency. They haven’t inked a free agent for more than three years under Farhan Zaidi’s watch as president of baseball operations. That doesn’t mean Harris will operate from the exact same playbook, but it’s notable context nonetheless.

To that end, the general expectation surrounding the Tigers this winter has been that the team will at least one, if not two arms in free agency. Adding a bat to the middle of the lineup also seems like a sensible enough fit. The question is: to what extent are the Tigers willing to spend?

Recent reports have indicated that the Tigers have interest in both Seth Lugo and Kenta Maeda, for instance, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press wrote this morning that the Tigers prefer Lugo on a one-year deal. He’s understandably seeking a three-year pact after a breakout 2023 campaign. Petzold also reports that rebound candidate Luis Severino is on the Tigers’ radar. He’s likely to sign a one-year deal this winter. Maeda is generally expected to sign for no more than two years. Between those three targets, a preference for shorter-term additions seems to be on the table for the Tigers.

Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic frames things similarly in his latest mailbag, writing that the Tigers seem likelier to dish out multiple short-term deals — similar to last year’s one-year pact with Michael Lorenzen — than they are to ink a notable arm on a heftier deal. The Tigers reportedly checked in on Lance Lynn before he signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Cardinals. Stavenhagen suggests that contracts of that nature (and the Cardinals’ one-year, $12MM deal with Kyle Gibson) are roughly what one could expect the Tigers to offer in free agency. Similarly, he writes that Canha could be the team’s most significant position-player acquisition this winter.

There’s no firm indication that the Tigers won’t be a bit more aggressive in free agency and pursue some notable names on multi-year deals. Unexpected market circumstances can always emerge, perhaps leading a team to land a major free agent they never expected early in the winter. The Twins surely didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason expecting to sign Carlos Correa, for instance, and the Tigers’ ample flexibility leaves them open for opportunistic adds of that nature, should they arise.

The trade market also can’t be discounted as a means of adding some notable talent. Harris and his staff proved over the past year that they’re plenty willing to make deals with other clubs. Since the beginning of last offseason, Detroit has traded Joe Jimenez to Atlanta and Gregory Soto and Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia (in separate swaps). The Tigers picked up Zach McKinstry in a spring trade with the Cubs earlier this year and added Canha in a deal with Milwaukee just a few weeks ago. It’s perfectly reasonable to think they might be more active in trades than in free agency; some combination of both avenues is likely at the end of the day.

However, those hoping for a bigger splash may want to look back to Harris’ comments earlier this month when asked about having sufficient resources to sign a premier free agent (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News): “If we feel like we are close enough to where a big free agent pushes us over the edge, sure, we have an ownership that’s going to support us to be able to do that. But, as this game has taught us time and time again, sometimes, teams over-estimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs, and they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back. We have to be really careful.”

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Tigers Interested In Seth Lugo

By Darragh McDonald | November 22, 2023 at 10:25am CDT

Nov. 22: Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that while Lugo is indeed of interest to the Tigers, they prefer him on a one-year deal. Lugo is seeking a three-year guarantee this winter, per the report.

Nov. 20: The Tigers are interested in starting pitchers, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. They reportedly checked in with right-hander Lance Lynn before he got his new deal with the Cardinals and Morosi adds that free agent righty Seth Lugo is of interest to the club.

Lugo, now 34, shifted to a starting gig in 2023 after many years of working as a reliever. He took to the switch with aplomb, throwing 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts with a 3.57 earned run average. He struck out 23.2% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6% clip and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. He declined a $7.5MM player option to stick with the Padres for 2024 and MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal worth $42MM this offseason.

It’s plenty sensible that the Tigers are looking for rotation additions to make up for recent subtractions. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his deal while righty Spencer Turnbull was non-tendered, resulting in both of those players now being free agents. The remaining rotation definitely has some talent but it comes with question marks.

Lefty Tarik Skubal looked great in 2023, returning from flexor tendon surgery to put up an ERA of 2.80, but he made just 15 starts and tossed only 80 1/3 innings. Even if he can stay healthy next year, he may push himself into workload concerns, having set career high of 149 1/3 frames in 2021. Matt Manning suffered a couple of foot fractures and was also limited to 15 starts in the most recent season. His 3.58 ERA looks fine at first glance but his 15.8% strikeout rate is way below league average and he benefited from an unsustainable .214 batting average on balls in play. He tossed 133 2/3 innings in the minors in 2019 but hasn’t reached that level since. Casey Mize missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Reese Olson had a solid debut but still has barely 100 innings of major league experience. Sawyer Gipson-Long has just four big league starts. Joey Wentz, Alex Faedo and Mason Englert are on the roster but had uninspiring results in 2023. Wilmer Flores and Keider Montero recently got added to the roster but haven’t debuted in the big leagues yet. Considering all of the variability here, it makes sense for the club to consider bringing in a stabilizing force.

The club was recently connected to Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that seems like more a long shot considering he will surely require a nine-figure deal of some kind. President of baseball operations Scott Harris has been fairly cautious since taking over and there’s been little to indicate he’s planning to break from that right now. Lynn ultimately only required a one-year deal and Lugo’s next contract will be somewhat capped by his age.

Financially, there’s nothing stopping the Tigers from making whatever addition they decide upon. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll at just $74MM. The figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts had Detroit at $122MM on Opening Day in 2023 and $135MM the year before. Javier Báez is the only player under contract beyond 2024. It’s unknown exactly how much the club plans to spend this offseason but they have enough room to do a few things before they even come close to recent spending levels. If not Lugo, other pitchers that will likely sign short-term deals include Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha and many more.

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Tigers Showing “Serious” Interest In Kenta Maeda

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2023 at 3:49pm CDT

The Tigers have “serious” interest in free agent righty Kenta Maeda, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The club views him as a possible veteran stabilizer for a young rotation and also hopes a potential Maeda deal would help to “establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market” in the future, Petzold writes.

Following Eduardo Rodriguez’s decision to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract, Detroit’s starting staff currently projects to include Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Reese Olson. Righty Sawyer Gipson-Long, 26 next month, posted solid results in his first four MLB starts last year but struggled in Triple-A as well. Relievers Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske and Alex Faedo have all made starts in the majors but struggled in a rotation role. Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Mason Englert, survived the season on the 40-man roster but could head to Triple-A to begin the year. No one else on the Tigers’ 40-man roster has meaningful experience as a starter in the Majors.

Some form of veteran pickup is needed, and Maeda somewhat quietly had a stronger season than many realize in 2023. This past season was the veteran righty’s first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and he gave the Twins 104 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball with strong strikeout and walk rates  of 27.3% and 6.5%, respectively.

However, Maeda’s end-of-season numbers are perhaps disproportionately impacted by one catastrophic start. On April 26, with the Twins playing host to the Red Sox, Maeda was shelled for 10 runs in just three innings. He landed on the injured list immediately after that outing and wound up missing nearly two months due to a triceps strain. That day’s 89 mph average fastball was his lowest of the entire season. It seems fair to presume that he was not pitching at close to full strength that afternoon.

Maeda’s return from the injured list included five shutout frames against the same Tigers who are now showing interest in him, and from that point forth he was one of the league’s more effective starters. In his final 88 1/3 innings, Maeda turned in a sharp 3.36 earned run average while fanning a hefty 29% of his opponents against a 7% walk rate. He’s still a soft-tosser by today’s standards, but the 91.2 mph he averaged on his heater following his return from the injured list is still 2.2 mph faster than the 89 he averaged in that meltdown against the Yankees. Maeda also averaged 5 2/3 innings per start down the stretch, showing a bit more ability to work through a lineup than many of the five-inning arms that populate today’s rotations.

It’s been generally quiet thus far on the Maeda front, with few teams prominently linked to the 35-year-old righty. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said after the season that he wouldn’t rule out reunions with any of his team’s free agents, Maeda included, but Minnesota is also expected to trim payroll by $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding the team’s future television rights. Trades of Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and/or Christian Vazquez could create some extra leeway for Minnesota to pursue a reunion with Maeda, but there’s no indication it’s a serious consideration at this time.

Despite the lack of chatter surrounding Maeda to this point, however, he figures to draw wide-reaching interest. Beyond the excellent run following his triceps injury this season, the righty was the runner-up finisher in 2020 American League Cy Young voting and has long since established himself as a viable mid-rotation presence. In 866 1/3 career big league innings between the Dodgers and Twins, Maeda sports a 3.92 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. His postseason resume includes another 41 2/3 frames of 3.24 ERA ball.

As for the Tigers, there’s virtually no free agent they can’t pursue from a purely financial standpoint. Javier Baez is the only player on a guaranteed contract beyond the 2024 season, and next year’s payroll currently projects at $74MM. That’s nowhere near 2017’s franchise-record $200MM Opening Day payroll, and while that outlay was committed under the late Mike Ilitch, even under his successor and son Chris, the Tigers have trotted out a payroll as high as $135MM (2021).

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Willie Hernandez Passes Away

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2023 at 10:26am CDT

Three-time All-Star and 1984 World Series champion Willie Hernandez has passed away at the age of 69 after a yearslong battle with a heart condition, per a report from La Primera Hora — a newspaper in Hernandez’s native Puerto Rico. The former American League MVP and Cy Young winner (both in a standout ’84 campaign) had been dealing with heart troubles for around 15 years, his wife tells La Primera Hora. Hernandez himself told Matt Schoh of the Detroit News back in 2019, after throwing out the first pitch during the Tigers’ season opener, that he nearly died in 2007 while having a pacemaker installed in his heart.

Hernandez is one of just 10 pitchers to ever capture both a Cy Young Award and an MVP in the same season — and one of just three relievers to accomplish that feat (joining Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersley). The lefty’s 1984 campaign was indeed sensational; Hernandez led the Majors in both appearances (80) and games finished (68) while piling up a hefty 140 1/3 innings of relief. He saved 32 games that season and pitched to a pristine 1.92 ERA. He’d go on to add another 9 1/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball in the postseason, including a pair of saves during a World Series that the Tigers won over the Padres.

That ’84 season kicked off a run of three consecutive All-Star appearances for Hernandez and was just one of many brilliant seasons over the life of a 13-year big league career. Hernandez made his MLB debut with the Cubs as a 22-year-old back in 1977, pitching to a terrific 3.03 ERA in 110 innings. He’d ultimately spend six-plus season in a Cubs uniform, pitching to a collective 3.81 ERA in that time.

Chicago traded Hernandez to the Phillies in May of 1983, and Hernandez delivered 95 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball for the Phils en route to a World Series appearance. Philadelphia fell short to the Orioles in the ’83 Fall Classic, but that wasn’t due to any fault of Hernandez, who fired four shutout frames with four strikeouts during the series.

The Phillies traded Hernandez to the Tigers the following spring, and he went on to spend six seasons in Detroit, where he worked to a collective 2.98 ERA thanks in large part to his often unhittable screwball. His time with the Tigers included the vast majority of his career highlights: all three All-Star appearances, the Cy Young and MVP nods, and of course, the 1984 World Series championship. Elbow troubles in his age-34 season ultimately put an end to Hernandez’s pitching career.

All in all, Hernandez appeared in 744 Major League games, pitching to a lifetime 3.38 ERA with a 70-63 record, 147 saves and 788 strikeouts in 1044 2/3 innings. His postseason work tacks on another 13 2/3 frames of 1.32 ERA ball and three more saves. We at MLBTR express our condolences to Hernandez’s family, friends, former teammates and fans.

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Spencer Turnbull Awarded Full Year Of Service For 2023

By Darragh McDonald | November 20, 2023 at 2:45pm CDT

Free agent right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been retroactively awarded a full year of service in 2023 despite being on optional assignment from mid-August until the end of the season. The MLB Players Association released a statement from Turnbull on the matter, relayed by Evan Drellich of The Athletic, explaining the issue. “At the time I was optioned in August 2023,” the statement reads, “I was dealing with a foot injury. I raised this with the Club. After further review of my medical condition, the Club has now agreed to reverse the option and I am receiving full major league service for the 2023 season.”

Turnbull, now 31, seemingly butted heads with the Tigers a couple of times in the past year. He was initially optioned to the minors in May but that option was rescinded less than a week later, with Turnbull instead being placed on the major league injured list due to neck discomfort. “After Spencer left the room I got a call from him directly in which he disclosed some neck discomfort,” president of baseball operations Scott Harris said at that time. “As soon as we heard that, we set up an appointment for him with our doctor. We also had him see a specialist out of state. We had those doctors discuss what’s going on with his neck. They confirmed the injury and we placed him on the injured list as of Sunday.”

He was later transferred to the 60-day IL and wasn’t reinstated until the third week of August, when he was promptly optioned to the minors again. Shortly thereafter, reports emerged that the relationship between the pitcher and the club was fraught, with Turnbull referencing a cracked toenail at that time. Turnbull was just non-tendered by the club last week and reports emerged that he had asked to be traded prior to the deadline in early August. But no deal came together and he stayed on the roster until the non-tender last week.

There are multiple issues at play here. Injured players at the big league level are supposed to be placed on the major league injured list and cannot be optioned to the minors when they are hurt. While on the IL, they continue to collect major league service time and pay. With Turnbull optioned for the final month-plus of the season, he finished just shy of five years of service. By now getting that extra option reversed, his service time will go beyond the five-year plateau.

That is important for Turnbull on a couple of fronts. For one, players with more than five years of service can’t be optioned to the minors without their consent. Prior to this ruling, Turnbull was still going to have an option year remaining in 2024, allowing a club to sign him but keep him as depth in the minors in they wanted. That will no longer be on the table. Secondly, if Turnbull eventually spends all of 2024 in the majors or on the IL, he will get beyond six years of service and qualify for free agency again. Prior to today’s change, a club could have theoretically signed him for 2024 and then retained him via arbitration for 2025, since Turnbull would have been just shy of six years in that scenario. All in all, Turnbull has gained some more control over his future than he would have otherwise had.

Prior to the odyssey of being optioned and then landing on the IL and then the second option, Turnbull’s 2023 season began terribly. He made seven starts to begin the campaign and had an ERA of 7.26. That was on the heels of missing the entire 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he had a good run prior to that. From 2019 to 2021, he threw 255 innings with a 4.13 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 50.3% ground ball rate.

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Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals

By Nick Deeds | November 19, 2023 at 2:30pm CDT

The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.

Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
  • While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola’s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.
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Detroit Tigers Milwaukee Brewers Notes St. Louis Cardinals Aaron Nola Brandon Woodruff Spencer Turnbull

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Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Baez

By Nick Deeds | November 18, 2023 at 7:40pm CDT

The Reds enjoyed a 2023 season in which they exceeded expectations, spending the summer in the mix for a playoff spot despite ultimately falling just short with an 82-80 record. With a bevy of young infielders led by Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, the club appears poised to potentially take another step forward in 2023. One key area in need of improvement, however, is the pitching staff: Cincinnati’s team ERA of 4.83 was the sixth-worst figure in the majors, and only the A’s and Rockies saw their rotation post a worse ERA than the Reds’ 5.43 figure. That rotation ERA is made all the more glaring by the fact that Reds starters combined for just 787 innings of work this year, 23rd in the majors.

Of course, that body of work from the rotation ignores the injury woes of promising young arms like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who could combine with fellow youngsters Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips can fill out a rotation that, at least on paper, looks better than this year’s bottom-three production would imply. While it’s certainly feasible that steps forward from young arms and health from Greene and Lodolo could provide Cincinnati with a serviceable rotation in 2024, Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed comments from president of baseball operations Nick Krall today that indicate the Reds will look to add to their rotation this winter, taking advantage of an unusually deep free agent class for pitching.

Per Goldsmith, Krall told reporters that the Reds will look to add “some sort of blend of quality and quantity” to their pitching staff this winter, while noting that the club’s young arms can already provide the club with upside. Krall’s comments particularly seemed to indicate that the club is interested in pitchers who can both pitch out of the rotation and the bullpen as needed. That sort of swing arm is certainly in supply this offseason, with former Reds Michael Lorenzen and Alex Wood joined by the likes of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, and Jakob Junis among the arms who fit that description. Signing a swing arm could make plenty of sense for a Reds club that has several interesting young arms who figure to get looks in the rotation next year but is nonetheless clearly in need of a veteran presence who can provide reliable innings in the event of injury or under performance from the club’s youngsters.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • The Cubs’ coaching staff has largely been in flux since the club brought in Craig Counsell to take over for David Ross as manager, but Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times reports that at least two of Ross’s coaches will be retaining their positions under Counsell: hitting coach Dustin Kelly and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy. Kelly is the latest in a long line of Cubs hitting coaches in recent years; he became the eighth person to hold the role over the past twelve seasons upon taking the role for the 2023 campaign. Hottovy, meanwhile, is a much longer-tenured part of the Cubs organization. He first joined the organization back in 2014 before being elevated to the role of pitching coach in 2018. Counsell will be the third manager Hottovy serves under, joining both Ross and Joe Maddon.
  • Tigers shortstop Javier Baez is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career in 2023, having slashed a brutal .222/.267/.325 in 547 trips to the plate this year. That was the second-worst offensive performance from a qualified regular in baseball last year by measure of wRC+; Baez’s 61 figure, which was 39% worse than league average, clocked in just barely ahead of former White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson’s 60 wRC+. Brutal as the 2023 season was for Baez, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press relays that Baez is planning to spend much of his offseason stateside this winter rather than return to his home in Puerto Rico, as he typically does after the season comes to an end. During his time stateside, Petzold indicates that Baez plans to focus on strengthening his back and core muscles to recapture the athleticism that allowed him to connect for 86 home runs from 2017-2019, the fourth highest figure among qualified shortstops during that time span. If Baez, 31 next month, can successfully combat father time and recapture the power that carried his offensive profile in his youth, that would provide a massive boost to a Tigers team that finished bottom four in the majors with a team-wide wRC+ of just 89 in 2023.
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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Detroit Tigers Notes Dustin Kelly Javier Baez Nick Krall Tommy Hottovy

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