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2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Mets Claim Heath Hembree, Transfer Jacob deGrom To 60-Day Injured List

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The Mets have claimed right-handed reliever Heath Hembree off waivers from the Reds, per a club announcement. Ace Jacob deGrom was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. The Mets have already been without deGrom for more than a month, and he wasn’t expected back until September anyhow. He’ll be eligible to return on Sept. 15.

Hembree, 32, was serving as the Reds’ closer earlier this summer before a rough few weeks caused his ERA to balloon up to a dismal 6.38 mark. Unsightly as that ERA is, Hembree was lights-out from late June through late July, pitching to a 1.42 ERA with a 19-to-5 K/BB ratio and racking up seven saves in a span of 12 2/3 innings. That hot streak obviously came in a very small sample, but it’s worth noting — and this is likely what drew the Mets to him — that Hembree has been among the game’s best in terms of missing bats all season.

Among the 321 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year, Hembree’s 38 percent strikeout rate is the game’s seventh-highest mark. He’s tied for 15th in that same set of pitchers with a 27.4 K-BB% and sits 18th with a 2.84 SIERA. He’s largely been done in by the long ball this season, serving up 10 dingers in 44 2/3 innings of work (2.13 HR/9). Seven of those home runs have come at the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, however, where Hembree’s ERA is north of 8.00. He’s been much better on the road, and a change of scenery could do him some good.

As for deGrom, the Mets said last week that he’d go at least another two weeks without throwing, so it’s unlikely he’d have been able to return much sooner than Sept. 15 anyhow. Once he starts throwing, he’ll need to build up sufficient arm strength to get back to the mound and hopefully make a few starts for the Mets down the stretch as they look to pull out of the spiral that has seen them fall from a comfortable lead in the NL East to a sub-.500 record and a five-game gap between the now-division-leading Braves.

Rangers, Assistant GM Shiraz Rehman Part Ways

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The Rangers and assistant general manager Shiraz Rehman have parted ways, the team announced. (Levi Weaver and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the news shortly before the announcement).

“After discussions with Shiraz, we mutually agreed that it is best to part ways at this time,” president of baseball operations Jon Daniels said in a statement. “Shiraz has expressed a desire to seek a new opportunity where he can utilize his experiences and take on a more significant role than we currently have available. Since joining the Rangers, Shiraz played an important role in our process to shape the future of the franchise and ensure on-field success for the years ahead. The Rangers want to thank Shiraz for his contributions and wish him the very best for the future.”

Rehman had been with Texas since October 2018, coming over after five seasons as an assistant GM with the Cubs. Rehman was one of three AGM’s in Texas, pairing with Josh Boyd and Mike Daly as the top lieutenants for Daniels and general manager Chris Young.

Young was hired as GM last December, which Rehman indicated likely played some role in today’s decision. “I’m extremely grateful to ownership — Ray Davis and Neil Leibman —  and baseball leadership – Jon Daniels, Chris Young and Chris Woodward — for the opportunity to work for the Rangers organization, and have enjoyed my 3 years with the team.  … Ultimately, the redistribution of front office responsibilities after (Young) came aboard this winter left me with a less fulfilling and impactful role, so we agreed to part ways at this time,” Rehman told Weaver, who hears from others in the organization that Rehman was dismissed as opposed to stepping away as part of a mutual decision. “I am looking forward to my next challenge and wish the entire front office, the coaches, the players, and Rangers fans all the best in the future.”

Interestingly, Weaver reports that the Rangers and Mets have spoken with Reds’ director of pitching Kyle Boddy about a potential position for next season, although he hears that those discussions are unrelated to the team’s parting ways with Rehman. Boddy’s contract with Cincinnati expires at the end of the year, according to Weaver.

Boddy rose to prominence as the founder of Driveline Baseball, an independent data-driven training facility that counts numerous MLB pitchers among its clients. Weaver notes that Young worked out at Driveline during his days as a player, and Boddy consulted with the Rangers on their 2018 amateur draft, so he’s surely familiar with the top decision-makers in the Texas front office.

Injury Notes: Winker, Lindor, Phillies, Brewers

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Jesse Winker’s return to the Reds lineup was short-lived, as the outfielder left today’s game prior to the bottom of the third inning.  Winker went 0-for-2 with two flyouts in his first two plate appearances before re-aggravating the mild intercostal strain that sidelined him for Cincinnati’s previous two games.  A previous MRI didn’t reveal any damage, though manager David Bell told reporters (including The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans) that Winker will be re-evaluated prior to tomorrow’s game against the Cubs.

While the Reds are in the thick of the wild card race, the team will surely be careful with one of their top bats to prevent a longer-term injury.  Winker has hit .307/.395/.560 with 24 home runs over 481 plate appearances this season, and he entered today’s action as the NL leader in doubles (32) and total bases (235).  The Reds are in the midst of a grueling stretch of 29 games over 30 days, so there isn’t any built-in time for Winker to really get a break, and a trip to the injured list might be necessary to fully correct the issue.

More on other injury situations from around baseball…

  • Francisco Lindor participated in just about a full range of baseball activities prior to today’s game against the Dodgers, and Mets manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bill Ladson) that Lindor could potentially be activated off the injured list when New York begins its next homestand on August 24.  Lindor will travel with the Mets on their road trip and continue to work out, so the club will monitor his progress and then determine whether a minor league rehab assignment is necessary, or if Lindor could return to the active roster without the benefit of any minor league tuneup games.  A Grade 2 oblique strain sent Lindor to the IL on July 17, so even a return by that Mets homestand would be a pretty decent turn-around time for the shortstop, given how more severe oblique problems can sometimes linger.
  • Zach Eflin (right knee tendinitis) threw a live batting practice session today, while Vince Velasquez (right middle finger blister) and Sam Coonrod (forearm tendinitis) threw live BP sessions yesterday.  The Phillies pitchers are at different stages in their recoveries, and Velasquez and Coonrod will each begin minor league rehab assignments on Tuesday.  Eflin’s next step could be another simulated session before he starts his own rehab assignment, though the right-hander told NBC Sports’ Jim Salisbury and other reporters that he “felt great” during today’s 28-pitch session.
  • The Brewers are almost all the way out of a COVID-19 outbreak on their roster, and two of the remaining sidelined players (Adrian Houser and Jandel Gustave) are nearing returns.  As Brewers manager Craig Counsell told The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Gustave is working out with the team and Houser is expected to join the club when the Brew Crew begin a series with the Cardinals on Tuesday.

Mets Place Javier Baez On Injured List

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The Mets announced they’ve placed infielder Javier Báez on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 12, with back spasms. Travis Blankenhorn has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to take his place on the active roster.

New York acquired Báez from the Cubs in the hope that he could hold down shortstop while Francisco Lindor recovered from a right oblique strain. Unfortunately, Báez has appeared in just ten games as a Met before landing on the IL himself. There’s no indication he’s facing an especially long-term absence, but any missed time is an unwelcome development for a team that sits half a game behind the Phillies in a tight NL East race.

It’s been a confounding season for Báez, who is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. The 28-year-old has blasted 24 home runs over 398 plate appearances, posting a big .230 isolated power (slugging minus batting average). He’s continued to rate as a plus defensive shortstop and baserunner as well, again demonstrating his longstanding ability to impact the game in myriad ways.

The power output has come with a highly concerning approach, though. Báez has always been a free-swinger, but he’s chasing more often and making less contact than ever before. His 62.3% contact rate is the second-lowest (better only than Mike Zunino’s) among the 223 hitters with 250+ plate appearances this year. Báez’s 36.4% strikeout rate, meanwhile, is third-highest among that same group (trailing only Zunino and Bobby Dalbec). Overall, his .241/.285/.470 line split between Chicago and New York is exactly league average by measure of wRC+, although Báez has gotten to that production in anything but an average way.

Jacob deGrom Won’t Resume Throwing For At Least Two More Weeks

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Jacob deGrom hasn’t thrown since a July 30 setback in his recovery from elbow inflammation prompted a two-week shutdown. With that initial shutdown having passed, there’d been some hope deGrom could restart his throwing program in the coming days. That, however, won’t be the case.

Mets manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News) that deGrom’s shutdown will last at least another two weeks. Rojas stressed that deGrom isn’t dealing with structural damage and that the inflammation is improving. That said, it’s apparently not progressing quickly enough for him to begin throwing again before late August, at the earliest.

Hope remains that deGrom will be able to return to the majors at some point this year. That window of opportunity’s dwindling, though, with just seven weeks remaining in the regular season. In a best case scenario, deGrom begins a throwing program two weeks from now. He’ll need some time to build up arm strength before he can embark upon a minor league rehab assignment.

The Mets could expedite that rehab process by building deGrom up to work in shorter stints, just as they’re leaning towards brining Noah Syndergaard back as a relief weapon. In such a scenario, deGrom could still serve as a starting pitcher, but scheduling constraints make it unlikely New York will have the luxury of building deGrom up to work 100+ pitches with regularity for the stretch run.

Needless to say, losing the best pitcher in baseball has dealt a tough blow to the Mets. deGrom looked to be coasting to his third career Cy Young Award (and potentially the NL MVP award) early in the season. Over fifteen starts, the 33-year-old tossed 92 innings of 1.08 ERA/1.74 SIERA ball.

Despite a series of injuries to key position players, the Mets remained in first place in the NL East for much of the early summer — thanks largely to deGrom’s absurd level of dominance. A bout of forearm tightness sent him to the injured list on July 18, though. The accompanying elbow inflammation is now set to cost him at least a significant chunk of the season’s second half.

The Mets have fallen on hard times in recent weeks. New York has gone 11-13 since placing deGrom on the IL, with the rotation posting a disappointing 5.71 ERA/4.74 SIERA over that time. The skid — coupled with the Phillies’ recent hot streak — has put the Mets a half game back of Philadelphia and a half game up on the Braves in a tightly-contested division race.

Obviously, there’s still plenty of opportunity for the Mets to take ahold of the division. They’ll have to go at least a majority of the stretch run without their ace, though, leaving New York relying on a starting staff including Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Tylor Megill, Taijuan Walker, Rich Hill and Trevor Williams.

That’s still a talented group, but there’s also a fair bit of uncertainty. Stroman has been excellent all year, and the unheralded Megill has stepped up with 45 innings of 3.20 ERA/3.80 SIERA ball over his first nine big league starts. (Tim Britton of the Athletic explored Megill’s rapid rise in the organization this morning in a piece that should be of interest to Mets fans). The veteran group at the back of the rotation comes with plenty of question marks, though.

Carrasco has only made three starts this year because of a hamstring tear. He’s a highly accomplished pitcher at his best, but it remains to be seen if the 34-year-old will be able to pitch at his peak level down the stretch. Walker began the year well but he’s been hit hard over his past five starts. Hill has pitched well overall but seen his swinging strike rate plummet recently, and Williams struggled with the Cubs and has only made a single MLB appearance for the Mets to date.

Mets To Sign Josh Reddick

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The Mets are signing veteran outfielder Josh Reddick to a minor league contract, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (Twitter link). Reddick was released by the Diamondbacks on Monday.

Reddick signed a minors deal with the D-Backs over the winter and was selected to the big league roster in mid-May. His stint in Arizona wasn’t especially productive, though, as the left-handed hitter posted a career-worst .258/.285/.371 line over 158 plate appearances. With the last place D-Backs wanting to give a longer look to younger players on the roster, they designated Reddick for assignment last week.

Disappointing 2021 showing aside, there’s no risk for the Mets in adding Reddick on a minor league deal. The veteran has generally been a productive hitter over the course of his career, and he was a league average bat as recently as last season with the Astros. The Mets’ starting outfielders — Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto — all hit left-handed, but New York’s bench is stocked with righty bats. Reddick joins Mark Payton and Khalil Lee as high minors options the Mets could call on if they’re looking to add a left-handed hitter to the outfield mix.

Because he signed before August 31, Reddick would be eligible for the Mets’ postseason roster if New York were to qualify. The Mets’ win over the Nationals — coupled with the Phillies’ likely loss to the Dodgers tonight — figures to pull them within a game of the Phils and Braves for the lead in the NL East.

Noah Syndergaard Likely To Work In Relief Upon Return From Injured List

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The Mets have been without Noah Syndergaard over the past two seasons as a result of his March 2020 Tommy John surgery. He’d embarked upon a minor league rehab assignment in May, but renewed elbow inflammation forced the club to shut him down for an additional six weeks.

Syndergaard is throwing again in hopes of a late-season return, but it seems the setback has cost him a chance at making it back as a starter. General manager Zack Scott suggested this evening the team is hoping to get the hard-throwing righty back as a reliever at some point next month (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).

Allowing Syndergaard to work in shorter stints upon his return would reduce the amount of time he’ll need to ramp up arm strength in preparation. The 28-year-old still hasn’t begun a rehab assignment, and he’ll surely need multiple weeks to build back up even if he’s working toward a bullpen workload. With a little less than eight weeks remaining in the season, it seems the club would rather shorten that process and get Syndergaard back in some capacity as quickly as possible.

The Mets got good work from the starting rotation early in the season, but that hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. Since July 18 — when New York placed Jacob deGrom on the injured list due to forearm inflammation — Mets starters have a 5.79 ERA that ranks 26th leaguewide. Marcus Stroman and Tylor Megill have pitched well lately, but Taijuan Walker has been bombed over his past five starts and Rich Hill hasn’t missed bats since being traded to New York.

deGrom was shut down from throwing for two weeks following his own setback on July 30. The two-time Cy Young award winner is still hoping to pitch this season, but he’s facing similar time pressures as Syndergaard. There’s no indication at this point that the Mets are considering bringing deGrom back as a reliever as well. That said, there’s still plenty of uncertainty regarding his projected timetable.

The Mets’ rotation woes have contributed to a disastrous few weeks that has seen them fall to third place in the NL East. New York is still only 2.5 games back of the Phillies (and a half game behind the Braves), so there’s plenty of opportunity to right the ship. Getting some sort of contributions from Syndergaard — even if it’s not in the role hoped for entering the season — would be a nice boon to their chances of climbing back atop the division.

The final two months of the year are also critical to Syndergaard personally. He’s slated to hit free agency at the end of the season. His late-season form will certainly have an effect on the market he’ll find. Before the injury woes, Syndergaard looked like one of the top starting pitchers in this year’s class thanks to a 3.73 ERA/3.25 FIP between 2018-19.

Javier Baez Leaves Game Due To Left Hip Tightness

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The Mets have now dropped seven of their last eight games following today’s 3-0 shutout loss to the Phillies, and the bad news continued beyond the box score for New York.  Javier Baez left the game due to left hip tightness, as the shortstop had to be removed following a painful at-bat in the top of the fifth inning.  After hitting a grounder, Baez remained in the batter’s box in obvious discomfort, and immediately left the field.

Baez is currently considered day-to-day with the injury, and manager Luis Rojas provided some hope in telling reporters (including The Athletic’s Tim Britton) that “we’re more optimistic now” postgame than at the time Baez left the game.  Rojas initially feared an oblique injury, similar to the one that has sidelined Francisco Lindor and may have provided the impetus for the Mets to acquire Baez at the trade deadline in the first place.

While Baez has gotten off to a slow start with his new team, the last thing the reeling Mets need is to lose another player to the injured list.  Jonathan Villar is the likeliest candidate to take over at shortstop should Baez need a day or two to get better, but if an IL stint is indeed required, the Mets are suddenly quite thin at shortstop since Lindor, Luis Guillorme, and Jose Peraza are all still recovering from injuries.

NL Health Notes: Freeman, Rodgers, Lindor

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Freddie Freeman left Saturday’s game with “an upper respiratory infection”, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman also points out that Freeman tested negative for COVID-19 and that he may have caught an unspecified “bug” that his kids have at the moment. The Braves’ superstar first baseman is having yet another excellent season, with a wRC+ of 136. If he can maintain that level of production for the remainder of the campaign, it would mark an amazing ninth straight season with a wRC+ of 132 or higher. Freeman is out of the lineup today but hasn’t been placed on the IL, which suggests the Braves expect a short absence. In fact, Bowman says he could have played today, though the team will play it cautious and let him rest a bit longer. The club is in the midst of a three-team pennant race, sitting two games behind the Phillies and just half a game behind the Mets.

More notes from the National League…

  • Brendan Rodgers was removed from last night’s game after being hit on the hand but seems to have avoided significant injury. Rockies Manager Bud Black says that the x-rays came back negative, per Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The infielder is finally getting a good run of playing time from the club and making good on his prospect pedigree. He’s been on Baseball America’s Top 100 every year since 2016. Through 227 plate appearances this season, he’s slashing .286/.348/.485, for a wRC+ of 110. The club has no need to rush him back, as they are well out of contention, 12 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.
  • Francisco Lindor’s return timeline is still murky, even to himself. “I don’t know when I’ll be back,” Lindor said, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. “I would love to sit here and say, I’ll be back at home. Or I would love to say, I’ll be playing rehab [games] next week. I don’t know. I honestly don’t know.” Before going on the IL with an oblique strain in mid-July, the star shortstop was mired in his worst season to date, slashing .228/.326/.376 for a wRC+ of 97, although that was mostly caused by an ice-cold start to the year. Since May 29th, his wRC+ has been an excellent 133. The Mets acquired Javier Baez at the deadline to try and cover for Lindor’s absence but have nonetheless slid out of the top spot in their division. They will surely be hoping for Lindor to recover as soon as possible, as the NL East pennant race seems destined to go down to the wire.
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