Ian Anderson Getting Shoulder Examined
The Braves don’t need any more injuries than they already have, but right-hander Ian Anderson told reporters after his latest start that he felt some tightness in his shoulder that he’s going to have checked out (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Manager Brian Snitker suggested to reporters that Anderson could land on the injured list after undergoing some tests tomorrow.
Anderson, 23, hasn’t matched his brilliant rookie season from 2020, but he’s still given the Braves 96 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate and a 9.7 percent walk rate. Those 96 frames rank second on the team behind Charlie Morton, the team’s only other starter who has not yet required an IL stint in 2021. Anderson walked a career-worst five batters in his most recent outing and has walked 15.2 percent of his opponents through three July starts — nearly double the 8.6 percent rate he’d recorded across 15 prior starts. He’s also tossed three wild pitches in July after throwing only two all season prior.
The rotation was expected to be a strength for the Braves heading into the season, but it’s been a more middle-of-the-pack unit, ranking 14th in ERA (4.05), 11th in innings pitched (461 2/3), 13th in strikeout percentage (23.9) and 19th in walk rate (8.4 percent). Injuries have been a major factor in those rankings and in the Braves’ lackluster showing overall. As with any team that is slowed by injury woes, health (or lack thereof) isn’t the sole factor, but it’s hard to overlook the Braves’ mounting number of issues.
Atlanta won’t get a single inning out of Mike Soroka in 2021 and recently lost superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to a torn ACL. Starting catcher Travis d’Arnaud went down early with a torn ligament in his thumb. Lefty Max Fried has twice landed on the IL (hamstring strain, blister), and many of the team’s promising young arms are banged up as well. Righty Huascar Ynoa looked to be on his way to a breakout — at least until he broke his hand after punching the dugout bench following a poor outing. Twenty-five-year-old hurlers Tucker Davidson (forearm) and Touki Toussaint (shoulder) are both on the 60-day IL, too.
The end result is a 44-45 record and a third-place standing in the division through the season’s first half. Thankfully for the Braves, the rest of the division is also floundering for various reasons, leaving them just four games back from the lead. That leaves the team a chance to fight back into the mix, although losing Soroka and Acuna for the season are potentially backbreaking injuries that’ll make it extra difficult to right the ship. And with the NL West being stacked up with three of the game’s best records, the Braves are seven back in the Wild Card race, which makes their cleanest path to the playoffs a divisional crown.
Mariners Designate Will Vest For Assignment
The Mariners announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Will Vest for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has been reinstated from the Covid-related injured list.
Vest, the Mariners’ pick in December’s Rule 5 Draft, was selected out of the Tigers organization and had a nice run with the Mariners early in the season. The 26-year-old pitched to a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings in April, albeit with shakier K-BB numbers, and kept his ERA at a respectable 4.03 through the end of May.
Since the calendar flipped to June, however, it’s been increasingly tough for the Mariners to trust Vest. He’s tallied 12 2/3 frames in that time and surrendered 14 runs on 18 hits and eight walks with 11 strikeouts. Overall, he’s tossed 35 innings for the Mariners and been roughed up to the tune of a 6.17 earned run average with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate and an 11.5 percent walk rate.
Were the Mariners playing the way that many onlookers expected, it might be easier for them to continue dedicating a roster spot to Vest for the balance of the season. Doing so would’ve given the Mariners his long-term contractual rights. However, Seattle is five games over .500 and is only three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. The seven-game gap they’re facing in the division is a bit tougher to surmount, but the Mariners are at least on the periphery of the postseason picture and will have a harder time finding opportunities for a pitcher who cannot be optioned and has looked increasingly overmatched.
Vest will now be placed on outright waivers and, if he clears, must be offered back to the Tigers organization. If a team does claim Vest, he’ll retain his Rule 5 status for the balance of the season.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Home Run Derby?
A busy week for Major League Baseball kicked off Sunday with the Futures Game during the day and the first 36 picks of the 2021 MLB Draft in the evening. It’ll continue with Day Two of the draft today and the annual Home Run Derby this evening.
Tonight’s eight-player field consists of top seed Shohei Ohtani, followed (in order of MLB’s seeding) by Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Trevor Story and Juan Soto. One half of the bracket will see Ohtani/Soto and Perez/Alonso in first-round matchups, while the other half will see Gallo/Story and Olson/Mancini. We’ll take a very brief look at each participating slugger’s season to date (sorted by their first-round matchup) before opening up polls on who fans are rooting for and who they expect to take home the trophy.
- Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels: Ohtani has been the talk of baseball in 2021, leading MLB with 33 home runs while also pitching to a 3.49 ERA with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate on the mound.
- .279/.364/.698, 33 home runs
- 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 119 mph max exit velo, 26 percent barrel rate
- Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: Soto hasn’t matched his 2019 power output, but he’s the youngest entrant in the field and has been one of baseball’s elite hitters from the moment he homered in his first big league at-bat back in 2018.
- .283/.407/.445, 11 home runs
- 92.6 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 10.8 percent barrel rate
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- Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: After a slow start, Gallo looks well on his way to another 40-homer season. He’s hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 home runs since June 4.
- .239/.402/.522, 24 home runs
- 92.4 mph average exit velo, 115.1 mph max, 19.6 percent barrel rate
- Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Story will take the field hoping for an upset win that could serve as something of a Coors Field farewell with the trade deadline and free agency looming.
- .249/.323/.442, 11 home runs
- 90.7 mph average exit velo, 110.2 mph max, 9.2 percent barrel rate
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- Salvador Perez, C, Royals: The seven-time All-Star gets better with age. He’s ripped 32 home runs in just 519 plate appearances dating back to the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
- .275/.300/.501, 21 home runs
- 93 mph average exit velo, 114.2 mph max, 14.3 percent barrel rate
- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso will defend his 2019 title — there was no 2020 Home Run Derby — in the midst of a hot streak. Eleven of the Polar Bear’s 17 big flies have come since Memorial Day weekend.
- .250/.328/.478, 17 home runs
- 92.7 mph average exit velo, 117.1 mph max, 15.7 percent barrel rate
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- Matt Olson, 1B, Athletics: Since 2017, the underrated Olson leads all full-time first basemen with 126 home runs, and he’s on pace to top his career-high mark of 36.
- .282/.371/.567, 23 home runs
- 92 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 14.4 percent barrel rate
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: That Mancini was able to return to the field at all after being diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer in early 2020 is remarkable; a derby win would be a feel-good story for baseball fans everywhere.
- .256/.331/.460, 16 home runs
- 88.5 mph average exit velo, 113.9 mph max, 12.9 percent barrel rate
Who do you want to see win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who do you WANT to win the Home Run Derby?
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Shohei Ohtani 29% (4,206)
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Pete Alonso 24% (3,503)
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Trey Mancini 15% (2,240)
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Joey Gallo 12% (1,815)
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Juan Soto 6% (807)
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Matt Olson 5% (788)
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Trevor Story 4% (634)
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Salvador Perez 4% (548)
Total votes: 14,541
Who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who do you think WILL win the Home Run Derby?
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Pete Alonso 31% (3,288)
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Shohei Ohtani 28% (3,019)
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Joey Gallo 20% (2,168)
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Matt Olson 6% (606)
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Juan Soto 5% (499)
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Trey Mancini 4% (458)
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Trevor Story 4% (406)
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Salvador Perez 2% (242)
Total votes: 10,686
White Sox Release Adam Eaton
The White Sox announced Monday morning that outfielder Adam Eaton has been granted his unconditional release. He’s now a free agent available to any other team for the prorated league minimum.
Eaton, 32, returned to Chicago on a one-year, $7MM contract this past winter after spending four years with the Nationals and winning a World Series there. He’d struggled through a tough showing during last summer’s shortened 60-game schedule, but Eaton was productive in his other three years with the Nats, hitting .288/.377/.425 in 1133 plate appearances from 2017-19. The Eaton reunion wasn’t the big outfield splash for which ChiSox fans were pining early in the offseason, but it was a reasonable enough roll of the dice at an affordable price considering Eaton’s generally strong track record.
Things (obviously) didn’t go according to plan for either Eaton or the White Sox, however. While he got out to a great start in the season’s first 15 games (.268/.379/.482 in 66 plate appearances), Eaton’s production cratered not long after. From April 20 through the time he was designated for assignment on July 7, he mustered only a .173/.262/.286 batting line with a sky-high (by his standards) 27.4 percent strikeout rate; entering the season, Eaton carried a career 16.8 percent punchout rate and had never fanned in more than 19 percent of his plate appearances during a single season.
While Eaton’s contract contained an $8.5MM club option for the 2022 campaign (which carries a $1MM buyout), that option buyout is now the responsibility of the White Sox, along with the remaining $3.1MM on Eaton’s contract. He’ll again be a free agent at season’s end. A new team that signs him will owe him the prorated league minimum — about $252K from now to season’s end. That sum would be subtracted from the roughly $4.1MM the Sox still owe him.
As for the White Sox, they’ll continue leaning on an outfield mix that currently features Brian Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, Adam Engel, Gavin Sheets, Andrew Vaughn and Leury Garcia. Slugger Eloy Jimenez, however, will have his minor league rehab assignment transferred to Triple-A Charlotte tomorrow, according to the team, further signaling that his return isn’t too far off.
Jimenez began his rehab assignment with Class-A Advanced on Friday and can be on rehab for up to 30 days — or until the Sox deem him ready for a big league return. He’s been out for the entire season so far after rupturing a pectoral tendon during Spring Training and undergoing subsequent surgery. Center fielder Luis Robert, meanwhile, is still expected back later this summer after suffering a Grade 3 strain of his hip flexor at the end of April. The Sox could still pursue outfield upgrades in the 18 days leading up to the trade deadline, but the positive progress of Jimenez can only make them feel a bit better about their internal outlook.
Padres Appear Set For (Another) Active Trade Deadline
The Padres, by most measures, are a solid offensive club. San Diego ranks tenth among MLB teams in total runs scored (428) and in wRC+ (101). They’re 13th in team batting average, eighth in team on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage. Throw out the pitching staff to focus only on position players, and they jump to 11th in average, sixth in OBP, 11th in slugging and sixth in wRC+. There’s room for improvement, but the lineup isn’t some kind of fatal flaw for this club.
Despite a mostly solid offense, however, general manager A.J. Preller suggested he’ll be looking for areas to bolster the lineup in the coming weeks (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Preller, while noting that some players on his club have enjoyed “real good performances” so far in 2021, noted that the group as a whole has yet to “click” in the same manner it did in 2020. “Those will be the things we’ll be talking about over the next couple weeks,” Preller told the Padres beat this weekend.
It’s certainly not an impassioned declaration that major changes are coming, but it’s notable this time of year when any top decision-maker publicly cites potential areas of improvement. Preller didn’t list a specific position of focus, but looking up and down the lineup, there are a few spots that are obviously of greater need than others.
Chief among them is at first base, where Eric Hosmer is again in the midst of an underwhelming showing at the plate. The 31-year-old is hitting .266/.323/.375, which isn’t egregiously poor but is still below league average (95 wRC+). In right field, Wil Myers is hitting .253/.330/.428, which is solidly above-average, but his bat faded after a monster showing during the season’s first month.
Meanwhile, Austin Nola has missed most of the season on the injured list, which has contributed to the Padres having one of baseball’s least-productive catching units in the game. The bench is also thin. Offseason multi-year deals for Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar have yet to pay dividends, and the Friars continue to dedicate a roster spot to the out-of-options Jorge Mateo despite the fact that he’s only tallied 88 plate appearances in 52 games (with a .195/.241/.280 batting line). Nola recently embarked on a rehab assignment, so the Padres may have some hope for reinforcements behind the plate sooner than later.
The rest of the Padres’ lineup has been excellent. Tommy Pham has shaken off a slow start and rebounded with a .301/.402/.526 showing in his past couple hundred plate appearances. Trent Grisham has continued his 2020 breakout, as has Jake Cronenworth. Manny Machado is hitting .267/.345/.479 with 15 home runs, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has clubbed 28 home runs while slashing .286/.364/.686. None are going to be displaced by a trade acquisition, barring some sort of injury.
It’s worth noting that Myers has been swinging a better bat over the past couple weeks as well, but inconsistent production has been a recurring theme throughout the life of his contract extension in San Diego. A player capable of splitting time between the outfield corners and first base would make plenty of sense for San Diego, as would a utility option that could at least be expected to provide something resembling average production.
This morning, Dennis Lin of The Athletic once again links the Padres to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, noting that Gallo’s ability to play first base is part of his appeal for San Diego. The Rangers’ asking price on Gallo, however, is characterized as “daunting” and can only have increased after Gallo has become the poster boy for offense in the post-Spider Tack crackdown; since June 4, Gallo is hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 long balls in 121 plate appearances.
Gallo surely isn’t the only potential trade target who could contribute at first base and in the outfield corners, of course. The Cubs are widely expected to shop Kris Bryant now that they’ve shifted to a deadline seller, and Baltimore’s Trey Mancini has been a possible trade candidate all season. The Marlins’ Adam Duvall is primarily an outfielder but has a few hundred innings of first base experience.
The list of potential offensive needs on its own would position the Padres as a potential feature team at this year’s deadline, but that’s only the beginning of their needs. Starting pitching was expected to be a strength for this club, but Padres starters are a more middle-of-the-pack unit than the dominant one expected after a series of flashy offseason pickups.
Blake Snell hasn’t pitched up to expectations, and Joe Musgrove has tailed off a bit after a dominant start. Yu Darvish is skipping a well-deserved All-Star nod to nurse a back injury that recently landed him on the injured list. Young Ryan Weathers just departed the team’s first-half finale with a leg/foot injury. Adrian Morejon had Tommy John surgery earlier in the year. And as Lin points out, top prospect MacKenzie Gore is back at the team’s Spring Training complex for further work on his mechanics after a rough start to the season in Triple-A.
While Weathers hasn’t technically been placed on the IL yet, the only healthy starters on the Padres’ roster at the moment are Musgrove, Chris Paddack and the recently promoted Reiss Knehr. Considering the veritable embarrassment of riches with which the Padres entered the season, from a rotation standpoint, it’s a bit remarkable to suggest they’ll be in the market for more starters at the deadline — but that indeed appears to be the case.
Preller indicated to Lin and others that the first steps in patching the rotation would be internal promotions (e.g. Knehr), but the GM also acknowledged that he and his staff will “keep talking to clubs” to see what’s out there in terms of upgrades. There’s no indication that payroll or the luxury tax would be any sort of issue, but it’s at least worth noting that after so many gaudy acquisitions in recent years, the Friars are sitting about $6MM shy of the $210MM threshold.
A year ago, the Padres were baseball’s most active deadline team, striking deals for Mike Clevinger, Austin Nola, Austin Adams, Mitch Moreland and Jason Castro. Preller followed that up with a trade-happy offseason as well, scooping up Darvish, Snell and Musgrove in an effort to create a dominant rotation that could pair with a deep lineup.
Given all that activity, it probably wouldn’t be a surprise to see yet another whirlwind trade season from Preller even with a healthy rotation and a fully operational lineup. However, the broad slate of setbacks on the starting staff and some uneven performances at first base, in right field and off the bench leave the Padres with a wide variety of paths to improve this club. And history tells us that Preller isn’t likely to sit back and hope his organizational depth will save the day.
Pirates Select Henry Davis With First Overall Pick Of 2021 Draft
The Pirates have taken Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft. The 21-year-old Davis joins Jeff King (1986), Kris Benson (1996), Bryan Bullington (2002) and Gerrit Cole (2011) as players drafted by the Pirates with the first overall selection, and Davis is the first Louisville player to be taken 1-1.
The pick ends weeks of speculation about Pittsburgh’s intentions with the top pick, and Davis’ selection counts as a bit of a surprise considering that high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer was seen as the favorite. However, Davis was also mentioned as a candidate on the Bucs’ radar, and in recent days, there seemed to be an increasing possibility that the Pirates might opt for Davis or one of two other well-regarded high school shortstops in Jordan Lawlar and Kahlil Watson. This is Pittsburgh’s second draft under general manager Ben Cherington, and the team also went with a college player early last year, taking New Mexico State shortstop Nick Gonzales with the seventh overall pick.
Considering Davis’ pedigree, the Pirates aren’t exactly reaching by taking the backstop with the 1-1 selection. However, since multiple reports have indicated the Pirates plan to spread out their bonus pool money, it’s fair to assume their choice of Davis may be tied to a willingness on his part to agree to a bonus south of the $8,415,300 assigned slot value for the first overall pick. Any money saved in signing Davis will allow Pittsburgh to allocate more of its $14,394,000 draft bonus pool to its other picks within the first 10 rounds, theoretically allowing the Pirates to select and then sign any blue chip talents that may have fallen down the draft board due to signability concerns.
Fangraphs and The Athletic’s Keith Law each ranked Davis as the second-best overall prospect of this year’s draft class, behind Mayer. Baseball America and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel each had Davis fourth in their rankings, while MLB Pipeline ranked him fifth. Whether Davis will stick as a catcher is a matter of some debate, as his blocking and receiving still needs some polish, but both McDaniel and Fangraphs note that Davis’ issues with framing won’t be an issue if and when Major League Baseball implements a robotic strike zone. Additionally, Davis has a very powerful throwing arm, with BA and Pipeline each giving him a 70-grade arm on the 20-80 scouting scale. (McDaniel even goes so far as to call it a “70-or-80-grade arm.”)
It’s possible Davis will eventually have to move to a corner infield or corner outfield slot. No matter his position, however, Davis’ bat will seem to play anywhere — Fangraphs even called him “arguably the safest prospect in the draft because he plays a premium position, has impact raw power, and has no contact red flags.” Perhaps the most highly-regarded college bat of the draft class, Davis has something of an unusual swing, but also (as per Baseball America) “standout zone recognition, pure bat-to-ball skills and plus power to his pull side to make everything work.”
MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis was the first to report that the Pirates were drafting Davis.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results
The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced. The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.
Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon. This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.
For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
The selections…
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
- Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
- Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
- Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
- Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
- Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
- Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
- Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
- New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
- Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
- Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
- San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
- Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
- Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
- Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
- St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
- Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
- New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
- Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
- Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
- Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
- Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
- Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
- Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
- San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
- Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
- Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
- Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
- Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
- Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
- Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
- Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
- Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
Padres Place Yu Darvish On 10-Day Injured List
The Padres announced that right-hander Yu Darvish has been placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 9) due to left hip inflammation. Righty Nabil Crismatt was called up from Triple-A El Paso to take Darvish’s spot on the active roster.
It was already known that Darvish wouldn’t be pitching in the All-Star Game, after he was named to the team for the fifth time in his MLB career. Assuming his IL stint is a minimum 10 days, Darvish won’t miss a start, factoring in both the two days of retroactive placement already banked and the four-day All-Star break. The righty is currently lined up to start San Diego’s fourth game of the second half, a road game against the Braves on July 19.
Of course, it shouldn’t be assumed that Darvish will be immediately ready for that start, considering that he left his last outing on Thursday due to back and hip tightness. Darvish was touched for six runs in three innings in that start against the Nationals, easily the worst start of what has been an impressive debut season in San Diego for the veteran hurler. Darvish has a 3.09 ERA/3.36 SIERA over 105 innings for the Padres, with a strong 29.8% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. There is a lot of red ink in general on Darvish’s Statcast card, but his elite 99th-percentile fastball spin rate stands out as particularly noteworthy.
Darvish isn’t a pitcher the Padres can afford to be without for too long, especially considering that Blake Snell and Dinelson Lamet are also still on the 10-day IL (though tentatively expected to return after the All-Star break). Starting pitching was already thought to be a priority for the Padres heading into the trade deadline, and that need will only increase if there is any uncertainty about Darvish’s readiness.
Indians’ Recent Struggles Lead To Difficult Deadline Decisions
A couple weeks ago, the Indians season seemed to hit a crossroads. The team was in a good place in the standings. As recently as June 26, Cleveland was sporting a 41-32 record, sitting only a game and a half behind the AL Central-leading White Sox. They were the only real threat to Chicago in an otherwise bad division.
The state of the roster, though, told a different story. Cleveland’s offense has underwhelmed all year, with the team’s strong run prevention keeping them in the race. The Indians were dealt a series of injuries to their top three starters — Zach Plesac, Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale — in fairly rapid succession, though. That left an unproven, inexperienced group taking the bump without the benefit of a high-powered lineup to back them up.
Not surprisingly, it’s been tough sledding for Cleveland in recent weeks. The Indians have gone just 4-10 over their last fourteen games, falling 7.5 back of the White Sox. They’re a more manageable four games back in the Wild Card race, but their skid has raised some questions about the team’s ability to stay in contention. Plesac returned from the IL this week, but the Indians are still without Bieber and Civale and continue to have questions about the lineup. FanGraphs gives the Indians just a 7.1% chance of reaching the postseason at this point, with their odds of winning the division down to 3.5%.
The front office is no doubt aware of those dwindling playoff odds. Indeed, Jon Heyman of MLB Network hears from rival executives that Cleveland has made some players on the big league roster available to other clubs in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.
It’s not clear specifically which players are on the market, but there’s no indication the Indians are planning any sort of full-on teardown. Bieber and José Ramírez would be the top two players on the trade market were they made available, but it seems highly unlikely the Indians would market those kinds of controllable stars in response to two weeks of poor play. The Cleveland front office would probably figure to listen to offers on players with less club control. There aren’t many players on the Indians roster who stand out as obvious trade chips at first glance, though.
Second baseman César Hernández looks like the team’s most plausible trade candidate. He’s hitting .226/.305/.413 and has already tied his career high in home runs (15) this season. It’s a nontraditional shape of production for Hernández, who typically hits for strong averages and reaches base at a high clip without hitting for much power. While Hernández’s profile has changed in 2021, he’s been similarly valuable as before. His 95 wRC+ this year isn’t far off his career mark (99) and is essentially unchanged from his 2019-20 production (97). Hernández is making an affordable $5MM this season and comes with a $6MM club option (no buyout) for 2022.
Cleveland would figure to welcome interest in corner outfielder Eddie Rosario. He’s making $8MM, though, and wasn’t having a particularly good year even before landing on the 10-day injured list with an abdominal strain this week. The Indians have a handful of young relievers (James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Sandlin) who would figure to draw plenty of attention, but it’s not clear the team would consider moving any of them. Veteran relievers Nick Wittgren and Bryan Shaw would probably be more attainable but wouldn’t bring back franchise-altering returns.
More broadly, the Indians are facing an interesting few months as an organization. The controllable core of Ramírez, Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Franmil Reyes looks good enough to anchor a contender. They would obviously love for Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario to produce enough to supplement that group. The farm system is regarded as one of the league’s best. It’s not inconceivable to see the Indians as a threat in the division in the coming years, even if the front office moves a couple veterans before the deadline in an acknowledgment of their increasingly slim playoff chances in 2021.
As the past few weeks have shown, though, there’s still plenty of work to be done to make the current roster a legitimate contender. The rotation is very strong at the top but the recent injury woes have exposed its lack of depth. The outfield has been a weak point for years. The catching duo of Roberto Pérez and Austin Hedges is a well-regarded defensive grouping but has offered virtually nothing at the plate, and the team’s first basemen have been the worst offensively in MLB this year. Giménez also struggled in his first crack at locking down shortstop.
There’s still a few weeks for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and the rest of the front office to settle on a pre-deadline plan. Even if they stand pat or serve as minor sellers, the upcoming offseason will be a pivotal one to determining the franchise’s long-term direction.
Mariners Promote Cal Raleigh
The Mariners announced they’re selecting the contract of catching prospect Cal Raleigh. All-Star southpaw Yusei Kikuchi was placed on the COVID-19 injured list to create active and 40-man roster space. Additionally, utilityman Donovan Walton has been recalled from Triple-A Tacoma, while outfielder Taylor Trammell was optioned to Tacoma after last night’s game.
Raleigh is now set to make his major league debut. A third-round pick out of Florida State in 2018, the switch-hitting backstop has developed into one of the game’s more promising young catchers. After a pair of quality seasons in the low minors, Raleigh entered 2021 as one of the Mariners top prospects. Each of Baseball America, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs and Keith Law of the Athletic slotted him among the top ten farmhands in a strong system this year.
All three outlets laud Raleigh’s combination of power potential and solid receiving skills, with Longenhagen noting that he’s rated as a strong pitch framer throughout his amateur and minor league career. The general expectation among evaluators is that he’ll develop into an average or better regular behind the plate.
The M’s would have had to add Raleigh to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft at the end of the season, but he forced his way to the big leagues a bit early by performing well at Triple-A. Assigned to Tacoma for the first time this year, he’s hit .324/.377/.608 with nine home runs across 199 trips to the plate. Raleigh has slashed his strikeout rate to a personal-best 12.6% this year, swinging and missing at a lower-than-average 10.9% clip.
With the 48-42 Mariners hanging in the postseason picture, Raleigh will get an immediate opportunity to contribute to a playoff race. The Mariners catching trio of Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and José Godoy has offered slightly below-average production on the season, although Torrens has been better lately after a bad start. It’s not a given that Raleigh will stick on the active roster from here on out, but his selection clears the way for him to contribute at the big league level down the stretch.
As for Kikuchi, there doesn’t seem to be much cause for concern. The 30-year-old has been feeling virus-like symptoms recently, but he’s fully vaccinated and has already tested negative for COVID-19, relays Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Assuming a follow-up test today comes back negative, he’ll be cleared to participate in the All-Star Game and return to the Mariners next week.