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East Notes: Rogers Centre, Ocumarez, Vazquez, Nationals

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The Blue Jays are planning extensive renovations at Rogers Centre, as Venues Now’s Don Muret reports that the club will spend $200-$250MM in upgrades to the ballpark.  The specifics of the renovations aren’t known, though Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports that the work is “likely to include a redesign of the stadium’s lower bowl.”  Given the potential scale of the redesigns, Davidi speculates that the renovations may slowly take place over the next few years, with work restricted to the offseason so fans or team personnel won’t be impacted during regular-season games.

Rogers Centre (which opened in 1989) is the seventh-oldest of all active Major League ballparks, and while the Jays were known to be exploring their options for building a new stadium near the current property or perhaps elsewhere in Toronto, the pandemic seems to have changed the team’s plans.  Renovating Rogers Centre now seems like the preferred and simpler route for the Blue Jays, rather than spend years finding and developing a new site.

More from both the AL and NL East divisions…

  • The Marlins have hired Roman Ocumarez as the team’s new international director, according to ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Twitter link).  Ocumarez comes to Miami from the Astros, where he worked as a scout and most recently as an international scouting supervisor.  Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are just a few of the notable signings credited to Ocumarez, with that particular trio already providing a huge return on the Astros’ total investment of $40K in bonus money.  The Marlins will look for Ocumarez to continue that success at finding hidden gems, and carrying on the Marlins’ own history of finding and developing quality international prospects.
  • Christian Vazquez has begun playing winter ball in Puerto Rico, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that Vazquez feels the extra work will help him bounce back from a disappointing year at the plate.  The Red Sox catcher hit only .258/.308/.352 in 498 plate appearances, and he is now in the final year of his contract after Boston exercised its $7MM club option on Vazquez’s services for 2022.  Obviously, better numbers will help re-establish Vazquez as a reliable starting catcher and line him up for his next deal, whether that contract could come with the Sox or another team.  There has already been an indication that the Red Sox are looking beyond Vazquez, as the team was reportedly close to acquiring Jacob Stallings from the Pirates before Pittsburgh ultimately dealt the catcher to the Marlins.  Speier observes that Vazquez decided to play winter ball of his own volition, as the Red Sox aren’t allowed to be in contact with players due to the lockout, and might well have not permitted the veteran backstop to participate under normal circumstances.
  • Relief pitching has been an issue for the Nationals for years, and in looking ahead to next season, the Nats have already acquired Francisco Perez from the Guardians and added three relievers in the minor league Rule 5 Draft.  As The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty notes, this can help the Nationals augment a bullpen that has already parted ways with several members of its 2021 relief corps, and is lacking in homegrown minor league relievers who could provide immediate help.

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

Troy Tulowitzki Discusses Retirement, Future Plans

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It has now been over two years since Troy Tulowitzki announced his retirement from his playing days, and Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post recently caught up with the former superstar and discussed various topics, including how he’s been making use of his post-playing time.

Tulo retired at a relatively young age for a player of his caliber, as he was just 34 at the time. However, it wasn’t his heart or his soul that took him off the field. “I won’t say that I wanted to retire at that point because I still loved playing the game,” he told Saunders. “Unfortunately, my body didn’t let me keep playing.” This isn’t terribly surprising to hear from the man himself, as baseball fans could see the toll injuries were taking on him as his career progressed. After playing over 100 games for five straight seasons from 2007 to 2011, he was limited to 47 games in 2012 and just 91 in 2014. He played two nearly full seasons in 2015 and 2016, but then just 66 games in 2017 before missing the 2018 season entirely. He played five games for the Yanks in 2019 before deciding to hang up his spikes.

Despite the frustrating injuries, Tulowitzki has maintained his passion for the game and is now channeling it into coaching. “The day I announced my retirement, I had already decided I wanted to get started coaching at a major D-I school,” he said, before detailing how he viewed himself as having less natural talent than a phenom like Alex Rodriguez. “But because of all the work that I put in, and how focused I was on my craft, I made myself really good. I know how I got there, and that’s why I’ve always thought coaching was for me.”

Since his retirement, Tulowitzki has been been pursuing his coaching desires, spending time working with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team and Athlete Development Program, in addition to a position as volunteer assistant coach for the University of Texas. As noted by Saunders, Tulowitzki quickly became a mentor figure at a young age during his time with the Rockies, and for Nolan Arenado in particular, making the transition to coaching a natural one. “My favorite part is developing the young kids and showing them the ins and outs of the game,” Tulo says.

Does that mean Tulo could return to the big leagues someday? Saunders says that Tulowitzki “has had nibbles from major league teams about possible coaching or working in the front office,” but that Tulo and his wife are busy raising their seven-year-old son, meaning the current role with the University of Texas aligns well with his parenting duties. But he seems open-minded about whatever the future has in store for him, saying, “I just look at it like I did as a player. You just do your job every day and then if you have an opportunity that you like, then you think about it.”

Chris Gittens Signs With Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

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First baseman Chris Gittens has agreed to a contract with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per a team announcement. Gittens was released by the Yankees at the end of November, just prior to the beginning of the lockout. At that time, it was reported that the Yanks had granted him his release in order to allow him to pursue an opportunity with an NPB team.

Gittens has spent the entirety of his professional career thus far in the Yankees organization, having been drafted by them in 2014. Gittens has always hit well in the minors, but has limited roster versatility due to the fact that he’s only ever played first base. In 2021, he played 45 games at Triple-A and absolutely crushed, slashing .301/.440/.644, for an incredible wRC+ of 185. He couldn’t translate that production to the major league level, as he hit .111/.250/.194 in his first season of MLB action. However, due to bouncing between the two levels and sustaining a few injuries, that was a small sample of 44 plate appearances in 16 MLB games.

Gittens was potentially facing a similar situation in 2022, as he still has option years remaining and didn’t have a clear path to playing time in the Bronx. Luke Voit is currently pencilled in at first for the Yanks, and they have also been connected to other first basemen this offseason, such as Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson. There’s also the potential of the club adding to another infield position and pushing DJ Lemahieu into some first base duty.

For Gittens, who turns 28 in February, he will now have greater certainty about his job status and likely an increase in salary as well. If he is able to hit NPB pitching at a level anywhere close to the level he’s shown in the minors, he should be able to garner interest from MLB teams in bringing him back to North America, following the trajectory of other sluggers who returned after overseas success, such as Eric Thames or Darin Ruf.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays had a busy couple of weeks prior to the MLB lockout, but there’s still work to be done when transactions resume. Here’s a look at where things currently stand and what might be next in Tampa Bay.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wander Franco, SS: $182MM through 2032 (includes $2MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2033)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $19MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025; contract also contains $11.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $14.5MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brooks Raley, LHP: $10MM through 2023 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2024)
  • Corey Kluber, RHP: $8MM through 2022
  • Mike Zunino, C: $7MM through 2022
  • Ji-Man Choi, 1B/DH: $3.2MM through 2022 (arb-eligible through 2023 season)
  • Total 2022 guarantees: $41.95MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $243.7MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

The Rays got a huge portion of their offseason lifting done prior to the lockout, extending Wander Franco on a record-setting contract for a player with under a year of service time. By guaranteeing Franco $182MM through the 2032 season, Tampa Bay solidified him as the face of the franchise and locked in a burgeoning star who turned in one of the more memorable rookie performances we’ve seen in recent years.

As is typical with the Rays, their early dealings involved plenty of tinkering with their arbitration class as well as what the team hopes will be some bargain additions on the pitching side. Gone are super-utility man Joey Wendle — traded to the Marlins for outfield prospect Kameron Misner — and lefty masher Jordan Luplow, who was sent to the D-backs for minor league infielder Ronny Simon. The Rays also parted ways with lefties Adam Conley (outrighted), Ryan Sherriff (claimed by the Phillies) and Dietrich Enns (granted his release to sign in Japan). Additionally, pre-arb righties Brent Honeywell (A’s) and Louis Head (Marlins) were swapped for cash.

Incoming arms include former Cy Young reclamation hopeful Corey Kluber, spin-rate standout Brooks Raley, bolstering the rotation and bullpen, respectively. There’s work to be done on both sides of the pitching staff still, however, particularly with ace Tyler Glasnow likely out for the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery. The Rays will also be without Yonny Chirinos early in the year after he fractured his elbow late in the 2021 season while rehabbing from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Lefty Brendan McKay, too, is a question mark after recently undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.

Among the potential members of the rotation — Kluber, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough, Shane Baz and Luis Patino — only Yarbrough and McClanahan topped 110 innings this past season. Kluber managed just 80 innings and didn’t pitch particularly well in six starts upon returning from the IL late in the season. Yarbrough, meanwhile, posted a career-high 155 innings but also a career-worst 5.11 ERA in that time. Baz dazzled at Double-A, Triple-A and in three big league starts late in the season, but the ballyhooed top prospect was also hit hard in his lone postseason outing. He could follow McClanahan’s lead as a late-season debut who carves out a concrete rotation role the following year — but there’s also still some uncertainty surrounding both him and Patino, another touted top pitching prospect.

Suffice it to say, with plenty of talent but just as many questions surrounding the young arms on the staff, the Rays figure to be on the lookout for some further pitching help. They’re not a likely fit for high-priced free agents still sitting on the market (e.g. Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw), but plenty of veterans who may command one-year deals remain unsigned (e.g. Matthew Boyd, Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards and old friend Drew Smyly). Similarly, it’d be a surprise to see the Rays trade for a relatively high-priced starter (e.g. Sean Manaea, Luis Castillo), but president of baseball ops Erik Neander, newly minted GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the Rays staff will be on the lookout for under-the-radar rotation adds (much like they found with Rasmussen during the 2021 season).

Of course, if the Rays were able to cull the current payroll a bit — projected at nearly $84MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez — perhaps there’d be a bit more room for an additional pitching splash. Tampa Bay reportedly discussed Kevin Kiermaier in trades at the same time Joey Wendle was being shopped, and it stands to reason that Kiermaier will again be made available post-lockout. While the Rays have explored Kiermaier trades for years now, the current market circumstances suggest a trade is now likelier than ever.

Kiermaier is entering the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $53.5MM contract extension and, at $12MM (plus a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 option) is the team’s most expensive player in 2022. Excellent as Kiermaier is with the glove, Tampa Bay could move him and still boast arguably the best defensive outfield in baseball, with Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips and center field prospect Josh Lowe (already on the 40-man roster) all possessing high-end defensive skills.

Beyond that, there are several teams who could be eyeing center field upgrades, including the Phillies, Marlins, Astros and Cubs, to name a few. The Rays might have to pay down a bit of Kiermaier’s salary in a deal, although speculatively speaking, they could alternatively look to swap him for a comparably priced player who better fits the team’s needs (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Jake Odorizzi).

While Kiermaier’s salary makes him a more obvious trade candidate, the Rays could also at least entertain interest in Margot instead, given that he’ll be a free agent next winter. A standout defender in his own right, Margot would hold similar or perhaps even broader appeal to teams with outfield vacancies and a preference for defensive upgrades.

Broadly speaking, when looking ahead for potential Rays moves, it’s always best to consider the possibility of them dealing from positions of great organizational depth. At the moment, that means outfield and perhaps middle infielders. Franco’s extension locks him into the lineup for more than a decade, and Brandon Lowe is signed through at least 2024 on a highly reasonably deal that includes a pair of team options. Meanwhile, the Rays still have well-regarded shortstop prospects like Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards. Both Walls and Brujan have made their big league debuts already. Dealing young prospects of that nature is never easy, and the Rays certainly wouldn’t mind keeping them as bench pieces or upper-level depth options, but they’ll surely receive interest in that perceived surplus. Teams that seek shortstop help in the long run but aren’t willing to pay one of Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, in particular, will be keenly intrigued.

Another general rule when looking for potential Rays moves is to follow the money. In this arbitration class, that means the aforementioned Margot and, perhaps more interestingly, Glasnow. The loss of Glasnow, who had Tommy John surgery Aug. 4, is a major blow to the Rays’ 2022 hopes. The team tendered him a contract knowing he’ll miss most or all of the season, which is only sensible given that he’s controllable through the 2023 campaign. That said, a projected $5.6MM salary for Glasnow amounts largely to dead money for the Rays in ’22, and Glasnow figures to earn that same sum (or a slight bit more, if he makes it back to the mound this year) in 2023 — his final year of team control.

Paying $11-12MM for what’s effectively one season of Glasnow (2023) is hardly burdensome, but for a low-payroll club like the Rays, it’s also not ideal. Tampa Bay surely wouldn’t make a salary-dump deal for a pitcher of this caliber; if the money were an issue he could’ve been non-tendered, so that’s clearly not the case. But, other teams with deeper pockets could also try to opportunistically bolster their 2023 hopes by giving the Rays some immediate help in 2022 at the cost of acquiring Glasnow for the 2023 season. It’s not necessarily a likely outcome, but larger-payroll clubs will undoubtedly inquire at the very least.

An underrated but nonetheless enviable aspect of the Rays is the team’s bench mix. Tampa Bay’s reserves figure to include a blend of versatile defenders (Walls, Brujan, Josh Lowe) and switch-hitters (Walls, Brujan, backup catcher Francisco Mejia) who currently or very recently ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. There’s room for third baseman Yandy Diaz and/or first baseman Ji-Man Choi to be pushed into a part-time role if either Brujan or Walls forces the team to adjust. And, with Franco able to handle third base, Brujan able to handle three infield spots, Brandon Lowe capable of playing second, first or in the outfield, Diaz capable of playing both corners — there’s a virtually limitless number of lineup permutations that could emerge from this grouping.

Whenever play resumes, the Rays will find themselves in a strong position. They already have a deep and talented MLB roster that’ll be anchored by a premium defense and one of the game’s most exciting young talents, Franco. The rotation has its share of question marks, but that’s true on a semi-regular basis and was perhaps never more true than in 2021, when Tampa Bay still went on to win 100 games.

The Rays could take the current iteration of their roster, as-is, into the 2022 season and likely be competitive in the American League East. The front office, however, could also elect to explore trades from the considerable outfield and middle-infield depth, perhaps dropping payroll a bit and then using that combination of trades and increased resources to further supplement the pitching staff. The Rays always have a fairly broad outlook, and that won’t change after the lockout. Whichever path Neander, Bendix & Co. choose to walk, the result figures to be a roster that may lack in name value but will make up for it in talent. In other words: business as usual for the Rays.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins sprinted through much of their offseason dealings in the week prior to the MLB lockout, making their biggest free-agent signing under the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group, swinging a pair of trades and extending their top arm. What’s left when the transaction freeze lifts?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $56MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout of $21MM club option in 2027)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $53MM through 2025 (including $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10MM through 2023
  • Anthony Bass, RHP: $4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
  • $3MM owed annually to Yankees, through 2027, as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
  • Total 2022 salary commitments: $26.5MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $142MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Miami’s four-year, $53MM contract with Avisail Garcia crossed one of the team’s top items off the wishlist, adding a power-hitting corner outfielder to a lineup that ranked 28th in the Majors in home runs this past season. The four-year term was a surprisingly big bet on a player who does most of his damage against left-handed pitching and has, in two of the past seasons, seen his end-of-year results at the plate clock in well below average. Garcia has hit well in the other three of those five campaigns, and the cumulative result is a solid .278/.335/.464 slash (113 wRC+).

Joining him as newcomers in the lineup will be former Rays infielder Joey Wendle and former Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings. Neither will add much in the way of pop, but Wendle gives the Fish a true super utility option who’s posted a .271/.326/.425 slash over his past 685 plate appearances. Wendle can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base quite well, and the Marlins could give him some outfield reps as well. He’ll be in the lineup more often than not, even if he won’t have a set everyday position.

Stallings, meanwhile, gives the Marlins one of the best defensive backstops in the game and a high-end framer to work with their young pitching staff. He’s hit .246/.333/.371 across the past two seasons and will serve as a major upgrade, on both sides of the ball, over the since-traded Jorge Alfaro (dealt to the Padres on Dec. 1).

Acquiring three new bats obviously represents a pretty sizable chunk of the Marlins’ offseason lifting, but they’re not done shopping just yet. General manager Kim Ng has already made clear that she hopes to add another outfielder to the bunch. Center field is still somewhat up in the air, though Ng said after signing Garcia that the Marlins believe he can play center if needed. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, that’d open the possibility of the Marlins pursuing another corner-outfield option, although playing Garcia in center seems suboptimal from a defensive standpoint. Miami has been tied to Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario, but Castellanos and Schwarber are likely beyond their price range.

Adding another corner option and playing Garcia in center would be something of a surprise, but the free-agent market lacks a true, everyday option in center at this point. There are some center fielders available (e.g. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, Albert Almora Jr.), but none who profile as everyday options offensively. Meanwhile, there are plenty of corner bats who have some experience in center (e.g. Rosario, Joc Pederson), but none who’d profile as a regular in center from a defensive perspective.

If there’s one corner outfielder in particular who makes sense in Miami, it’s perhaps NPB star Seiya Suzuki, whose posting window will resume once the transaction freeze lifts. A star with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp, Suzuki will sign with a big league team in advance of his age-27 season. For a team that’s looking to continue improving but won’t be a division favorite in 2022, Suzuki is an ideal add. He’ll still be in his prime several years down the road, perhaps when Miami’s prospect core has further bolstered the MLB roster. There’s risk in signing a star player who is yet untested against MLB pitching, but that uncertainty also helps to tamp down the price point. Since 2018, Suzuki has batted .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He just won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in right field this past season. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, Suzuki becomes a much more interesting name to ponder.

However, the most straightforward path for the Marlins finish off their outfield would be to add a center fielder via the trade market, though the few available options would be tough to pry from their current teams. The Orioles and Pirates will at least listen to offers for Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds, for instance, but both players are controlled four more years and would come with through-the-roof asking prices. It’s a similar story with Arizona’s Ketel Marte, who’s guaranteed $8MM in 2022 before the team has a $10MM club option for 2023 and a $12MM club option for 2024. He’s a bit more expensive and has one fewer year of control, but Marte is the most established player of that trio.

The Marlins do have a wealth of young pitching and managed to acquire Wendle and Stallings without dealing from their very best young arms, but any of Mullins, Marte or Reynolds would require parting with several young talents, likely headlined by a pair of legitimate top prospects.

There could be other, less-talked-about options to pursue. Oakland’s Ramon Laureano will miss the first month-plus of the season while finishing out an 80-game PED ban, but that could perhaps drop the price on him a bit. He’s controlled another three seasons. Kevin Kiermaier will surely be available once again, and while he wouldn’t provide the offense the Fish are hoping to add, he’d follow the Stallings mold in providing one of the most notable defensive upgrades possible.

Speculating further, Miami could try to effectively purchase a prospect or two by bailing the Yankees out of the remainder of their Aaron Hicks deal — they’ve certainly acquired plenty of other former Yankees. Or, perhaps they could go in the other direction and buy low on a former top prospect like Seattle’s Taylor Trammell, who has yet to establish himself and may already be squeezed out of the long-term outlook with the Mariners. There’s a match to be made between the pitching-rich Marlins and the Twins, too, if Miami is comfortable playing Max Kepler in center field regularly.

Whatever route the Marlins go in the outfield, they’ll surely want to keep some playing time free for 24-year-old Jesus Sanchez, who hit 14 home runs in just 251 plate appearances as a rookie this past season. Sanchez’s 31.1% strikeout rate will need to come down, but he slashed .251/.319/.489 (116 wRC+), securing himself a lengthier look moving forward. Also in line for a larger look is 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz, who hit .296/.356/.427 (albeit with a rather fortunate .380 average on balls in play) after coming over from the Astros in the Yimi Garcia trade. Former top prospect Monte Harrison is out of minor league options and could soon be out of opportunities if and when Miami adds another outfielder, given the options in line ahead of him.

That’s a lot of focus on one outfield spot for Miami, but that’s due largely to the fact that the lineup is otherwise mostly set. Stallings is locked in at catcher, and the Marlins have Jesus Aguilar (first base), Jazz Chisholm (second base), Miguel Rojas (shortstop) and Brian Anderson (third base) rounding out the infield. The aforementioned Wendle and fellow infielder/outfielder Jon Berti provide backup all around the field, while underrated slugger Garrett Cooper and prospect Lewin Diaz provide backups at first base.

In the event the DH is added to the National League, Aguilar could spend more time there in deference to the defensively superior Diaz. If Diaz needs more time in Triple-A, the Marlins could simply let Aguilar and Cooper share first base/DH duties. There’s perhaps room for another addition here to deepen the lineup, but don’t expect the Marlins to break the bank and sign Castellanos, Schwarber or another bat of that magnitude.

In the rotation, the Marlins are largely set, unless they want to bring in a veteran on a minor league deal just for additional depth purposes. Sandy Alcantara, who signed a five-year, $56MM extension that set a record for pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service time, will anchor the staff after ranking fourth in the Majors with 205 2/3 innings pitched this past season. He’ll be followed by breakout lefty Trevor Rogers, who notched a 2.64 ERA through 25 starts as a rookie in 2021. Righties Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez have spots largely assured, health permitting. Lefty Jesus Luzardo may have the inside edge on the fifth spot, but flamethrowing top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera will get their opportunities in 2022 as well.

Even beyond that top seven, the Marlins have enviable depth. Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett, Cody Poteet, Paul Campbell and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man roster and all have some big league time under their belts already. The Fish also still have 2020 No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer rising through the ranks. Fellow top prospect Jake Eder will miss 2022 due to Tommy John surgery but is highly touted in his own regard. Right-hander Eury Perez elevated his profile with a huge 2021 season in A-ball, and lefty Dax Fulton is also well-regarded.

Some of those arms — particularly those already on the 40-man — could end up in the bullpen, which is the other area the Marlins could look to upgrade. Dylan Floro, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass and Richard Bleier are all locks for the ’pen. Lefty Steven Okert may have earned a 2022 spot as well. Still, there’s no shortage of relief arms available on the market — and the Marlins have spent on some veteran arms at the back of the relief corps in recent offseasons. Sergio Romo, Brandon Kintzler and Bass were all signed as free agents. It’s doubtful Miami would spend at the top of the remaining market (i.e. Kenley Jansen), but another modest one- or two-year deal for an underappreciated veteran seems plenty possible.

Whenever offseason activity finally resumes, the Marlins will still have some work to do — even if they’re not as active as they were in the days leading up to the shutdown. Look for Miami to cast a wide net as they seek one final outfield piece, and don’t be surprised if teams come calling on some of their starting pitchers, given that arguably unrivaled level of depth.

The NL East features the reigning World Series champs, the reigning NL MVP (Bryce Harper) and perhaps the most aggressive owner in the sport right now (the Mets’ Steve Cohen), making it a tough time for the Marlins to be looking to turn the corner. They’ll face a tough road, but with another savvy addition or two and some strides from the young arms on the roster, a playoff push in 2022 isn’t completely out of the question.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers were once again a tier-one baseball club in 2021, but their streak of eight consecutive division titles came to an end, and their efforts to repeat were quashed in the NLCS.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $12MM option for RHP Joe Kelly, opting instead to pay a $4MM buyout
  • Bauer declined an option to trigger an opt-out clause

Free Agents

The career talent present on the Dodgers’ list of departing free agents is somewhat remarkable. It’s also somewhat misleading, as Pujols, Kershaw, Duffy, Hamels, et al, aren’t exactly in their prime, nor were they inner circle contributors to the club in 2021. Kershaw did his part, contributing 22 starts with a solid, if not Kershawian 3.55 ERA/3.00 FIP across 121 2/3 innings. That places him third on the team in innings, so he did his par. That said, by the time the playoffs rolled around, his year was done.

Bottom line: there are significant losses represented on that list, most notably thus far, Seager, Scherzer, and to a lesser extent, Knebel. Seager seemed destined to walk after the acquisition of Trea Turner at the trade deadline, though without him they’ll be pressured to pony up for the speedy ex-National, who is a free agent after next season. President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman values flexibility in his roster construction, and that’s evident in his handling of Seager. We could see a similar saga play itself out next winter, as the Dodgers could turn to Gavin Lux and/or Jacob Amaya rather than commit to a mega-contract for Turner.

But that’s tomorrow’s problem. For now, Trea Turner, Lux, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy make up a star-studded, if injury-prone starting infield. The health and age questions surrounding this group made the re-signing of Chris Taylor all the more crucial. With Taylor back in the fold for a reasonable $15MM per, the Dodgers can feel relatively stable with their infield group. Matt Beaty and Zach McKinstry are bench options on the Major League roster, while Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts give manager Dave Roberts extended flexibility because of their ability and willingness to move to the dirt on occasion.

All that said, there’s still room for another bat. Assuming there will be a designated hitter in the National League, the Dodgers could add a third baseman while allowing J. Turner to age gracefully into a bat-only role. Barring the addition of one of the star level bats remaining in free agency (think Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman), the Dodgers could still make a play for a veteran utility man, who wouldn’t have to play every day, but could capably pinch-hit and fill-in at multiple positions around the diamond. To their benefit, having T. Turner, Taylor, and Lux means they’re probably covered at shortstop, which frees Friedman to lean more liberally in the direction of a bench bat. Speculatively speaking, someone like Asdrubal Cabrera could be a fit, but they could also bring back Albert Pujols or look at other veteran minimum types while waiting for youngsters like Amaya, Michael Busch, or Miguel Vargas to play themselves into a role.

In the outfield, Betts, Bellinger, and AJ Pollock line up as the opening day starters, but they could absolutely look to add another bat here as well. Taylor and Lux can play the outfield, as can Beaty and others on the roster, but Friedman is more likely to have too many options than not enough. Don’t be surprised if there’s another name added to this mix after the lockout.

The big picture of the position player side of things is that they aren’t as deep as in years past, but they’re still in better shape than most. And yet, if they’re looking to grow the overall depth on this club, there are arguably more bats available in free agency than arms,  so we could see the Dodgers overindulge on this side of the ball to compensate for the losses on the pitching side.

Because for the first time in years really, there are reasons to wonder about the overall quality of the Dodgers’ pitching staff.

The rotation is the biggest area of concern right now. After all, the two most surprising decisions from the Dodgers so far this winter both relate to the rotation. Not issuing a qualifying offer to Kershaw definitely zagged from expectations, as did their not making a bigger push to retain Scherzer. Kershaw could still return, but if not, the Dodgers’ rotation is thinner than it’s been in years. Losing Kershaw would be a bigger blow than it’s being perceived right now, in part because Kershaw’s “legacy value” took a big hit by not being anywhere near the mound during the playoffs, and even in the regular season, he fell from the divine heights of prior seasons. But let’s not diminish the man: He posted 2.1 rWAR/3.4 fWAR and finished 11th overall by FIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings. In fact, by FIP alone, the Dodgers would be losing the 10th (Scherzer) and 11th (Kershaw) starters in the Majors. Sure, they got just 33 starts from the pair, so we can almost count them as a single starter, but they make a darn good one that the Dodgers will miss.

Also on the positive side of the ledger, the Dodgers still have Walker Buehler and Julio Urias as a tremendous, in-their-prime duo. In fact, those two finished just behind Scherzer/Kershaw as 14th and 15th in the Majors by FIP. But the Dodgers had a front-row seat to the Padres’ horror-show second half.  Two starters – even stars – is not enough to helm a postseason rotation.

If Kershaw does ultimately re-sign, I’ll give a ’hear-hear’ – but if he doesn’t, they did, at least, strike quickly to add former Angels’ southpaw Andrew Heaney to the starting mix. Heaney struggled mightily after a deadline trade to the Yankees, but the Dodgers believe in his upside. Said Friedman, “He’s got really strong ingredients in place, and there are a few different levers we feel like we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and is eager to dive in on.” Despite his long-time reputation as a potential quality starter, Heaney’s 1.9 rWAR back in 2015 marked a career-high. Entering his age-31 season, it’s not impossible to imagine a re-brand in the mold of Wade Miley or, sure, dream big, Charlie Morton, but that’s a pipe dream – until it’s not.

Dustin May has a bright future, but he’s not due to return from Tommy John surgery until the second half of the season at the earliest. Tony Gonsolin slots in as the number four behind Heaney right now, but the 27-year-old hasn’t been trusted to hold down a regular rotation spot before, and solid as he’s been, the Dodgers clearly like him in a swing role. Fangraphs lists David Price as the fifth starter right now, and though the 36-year-old may very well end up in that role, it would be surprising if both Price and Gonsolin are among their starting five on opening day.

Rotation depth is more important now than ever, and though the Dodgers seem to have lost ground in the star power department, they did make a couple of low-key pickups during the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft that deepens their pool of potential arms. Carson Fulmer was once the eighth overall pick of the draft, and though it’s been a while since his mound work merited national attention, he is definitely worth a minor league contract. The same can be said for Jon Duplantier, who even more recently graced top prospect lists while coming up through the Diamondbacks’ system. Both are entering their age-28 season, an age at which Jake Arrieta still had a 5.23 career ERA. Neither Fulmer nor Duplantier has been even that good, but there’s no risk here for the Dodgers, and they need the depth.

They expressed some interest in the Reds’ available starters, but nothing came together before the lockout. That could still happen, or they could explore a deal for one or more of Oakland’s arms: Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, et al. Frankly, it was surprising that they didn’t make more of a push to bring back Scherzer. Still, even without a major addition, it’s worth remembering that the goal isn’t to build out a starting five – the goal is to build an organization capable of competing for 162 games.

It’s worth wondering if Scherzer’s contract just became too rich for Friedman’s tastes. On the one hand, that’s absurd, nothing and nobody should be too rich for the Dodgers. But practically speaking, the Dodgers ran out the highest payroll in baseball in 2021, and they might want to see how the now collective bargaining agreement changes luxury tax rules before barreling ahead into repeater tax territory. Fangraphs has their current 2022 payroll at ~$232MM, so their bed may already be made, but it’s only sensible to want the exact terms of the arrangement.  Aside from the aforementioned Kershaw, most of the free agent starting pitching talent signed prior to the lockout.  The Dodgers could still consider Carlos Rodon, whose health history is likely to lead to the type of shorter-term requirement the Dodgers prefer.  Indeed, when the MLBTR staff was debating Rodon’s potential contract, they kicked around some kind of Bauer-lite high-dollar three-year arrangement.

Speaking of Bauer, last we saw of the divisive right-hander, he had been on extended administrative leave due to unresolved sexual assault allegations. As of now, it’s entirely unclear if he will be available to pitch in 2022 (or even if the Dodgers would welcome him back). MLB’s recent ruling on Marcell Ozuna’s violation of the MLB – MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy suggests the league office is not yet ready to levy significant penalties for players whose criminal court cases are dropped.

Still, Bauer’s case is more public than perhaps any prior violation, and one would expect greater backlash upon his return to the field. So long as the Dodgers remain responsible for paying the $70MM+ still owed the right-hander, they would be hard-pressed not to allow him to suit up, especially given their need on the hill. If, however, they are somehow let out of their contractual obligation to Bauer, they could allocate that money elsewhere – though any replacement would most likely be a downgrade from Bauer’s significant on-field potential. Needless to say, the cloud of these proceedings will hang over the Dodgers for some time.

In the bullpen, Joe Kelly and Corey Knebel have been replaced by Daniel Hudson, while long-time closer Kenley Jansen remains a free agent. Blake Treinen was amazing last season (1.99 ERA/2.88 FIP across 72 1/3 innings), Hudson has plenty of high-leverage experience, and it’s easy to dream on Brusdar Graterol’s potential, but the relief corps is very much a work-in-progress.  After 12 years at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, the club may finally allow Jansen to walk away.

Whether they add starters, relievers, or the modern type of arm that can move between roles, they’re going to need more pitchers. They had 11 pitchers post more than half a win by fWAR in 2021, six of whom are either already gone or current free agents (Kershaw, Scherzer, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, Jansen) and a seventh is Bauer. No need to panic: that’s a backward-looking approach, they can afford to print new jerseys, and the offseason isn’t over. But there’s work to be done.

In terms of the free agents available, Kershaw may be the best starter available, with Rodon and his checkered past also in the running. Other lesser names are available as well, perhaps led by Yusei Kikuchi. Many of the available free agent starters aren’t likely to ignite the fanbase, but the Dodgers have spun straw into gold before.

The relief market has a bit more juice with Jansen only one name among many that can be first division arms: Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, Kelly, Nelson, and Adam Ottavino, to name a few. There’s still a chess move or two that the Dodgers could make without horribly overburdening their payroll.

Internally, Mitch White could find himself in a bigger role, Tommy Kahnle is coming back from Tommy John, and prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove aren’t far from seeing daylight (Grove is on the 40-man roster). There is some growth potential, but if nothing else, Buehler and Urias need to take over as the faces of Dodger pitching. Then again, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that they already are.

All told, while they await resolution on the Bauer and CBA fronts, the Dodgers had to charge ahead, thought they did so with a relatively quiet first half of the offseason. They made some minor additions, adding outfielder Jason Martin and right-hander Beau Burrows on minor league deals to build out their depth. But they also dealt away outfielders Billy McKinney and Zach Reks for cash considerations. Both had been designated for assignment as a means of being removed from the 40-man roster. Sheldon Neuse seemed like a classic Dodger project when he was acquired from the A’s, but he’s now in DFA purgatory until the lockout ends.

The Dodgers will be one of the more interesting teams to watch coming out of the lockout. Given their status as the top paying luxury tax team, the particulars of the new CBA could affect them more than any other club. Add in Bauer’s situation and Kershaw’s free agency, and the Dodgers are facing more uncertainty than they’ve seen in years. That said, their financial might is as great as ever, and even depleted by their free agent losses, they have one of the most talented rosters in the game. They also play in one of the most competitive divisions in the sport. With the Giants and Padres as formidable as ever, there’s no room to take a step back. After all, even with Betts, Buehler, Urias, the Turners, Taylor, Muncy, Bellinger, Will Smith, and more, the fact is, the Dodgers aren’t the champs anymore.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros are coming off their third pennant in the past five years, but they came up a couple games shy of a World Series title. As they set their sights on returning to the Fall Classic in 2022, they’ve retained their skipper and a future Hall of Fame starter. Looming over the entire winter, though: the potential departure of their franchise shortstop.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2022 commitments: $151.85MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Astros came up a couple games short of a World Series title, but they kicked off their offseason by trying to preserve continuity. Within the first few days, Houston signed manager Dusty Baker to a one-year extension. The accomplished skipper will be back for a third year at the helm, although he’ll be without highly-regarded pitching coach Brent Strom, who left the organization to take the same role with the Diamondbacks.

While a World Series title continues to elude the highly respected Baker, there’s little question he’s been an important stabilizing force over his first two years. The veteran skipper was hired to replace A.J. Hinch over the 2019-20 offseason amidst the self-inflicted organizational tumult due to the sign-stealing scandal. Yet Baker has stepped in and guided the Astros as far as the AL Championship Series in both seasons, and agreeing to an extension seemed like a fairly easy call for general manager James Click and the front office.

Equally obvious was the decision to bring back Yuli Gurriel via an $8MM club option. He’s coming off a batting title and will reprise his role as the regular first baseman. Not long after exercising Gurriel’s option, Houston made a bolder strike. Within an hour of rejecting the team’s $18.4MM qualifying offer, Justin Verlander agreed to re-sign on a $25MM guarantee that contains a matching player option for the following season, conditional on reaching 130 innings pitched next season.

It’s a heavy investment for a pitcher coming off two seasons lost to Tommy John surgery, yet it goes without saying that Verlander’s a unique case. He was a Cy Young award winner during his last healthy season, and there aren’t more than a handful of pitchers teams would rather run out in the first game of a postseason series than peak Verlander. Whether he can regain that form in his age-39 campaign remains to be seen, but he’ll slot into the top of the starting staff.

Even sans Verlander, Houston had an impressive rotation. Yet it now looks like one of the game’s best, as he’ll be followed by Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, Jake Odorizzi and perhaps Cristian Javier. That’s an enviable combination of young talent and depth, one that could result in a trade coming out of the transactions freeze. Rival clubs would surely jump at the opportunity to acquire a controllable young starter like Garcia or Valdez, yet it’d be a surprise if the Astros entertained that kind of arrangement.

An Odorizzi deal, on the other hand, seems very possible. The veteran hurler publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the team’s seeming reluctance to let him work through opposing lineups three times during his starts. Odorizzi, Baker and Click all downplayed the possibility of that affecting the parties’ long-term relationship, but a deal arguably makes sense even independent of personal considerations. After all, there’s a case that Odorizzi should slot sixth or seventh among the Astros’ deep starting mix, but he’d be a definitive upgrade to plenty of other clubs’ rotations.

Trading the veteran righty should clear most or all of his $8MM salary for 2022 off the books, which could give the Astros flexibility to bolster other parts of the roster. There aren’t many weak points, but adding to a bullpen that was middle-of-the-pack in 2021 could be a target area. Houston’s already taken one step in that regard this winter, signing former Phillies closer Héctor Neris to a two-year guarantee. Yet they’ve also seen Kendall Graveman, Yimi García and Brooks Raley walk in free agency, and solidifying the bridge to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly could be of interest.

A southpaw to pair with Blake Taylor could be particularly helpful. The free agent crop of lefty relievers is thin, but Andrew Chafin and Tony Watson are among the generally reliable veterans coming off good years who remain on the market. On the trade front, perhaps the Twins would be willing to make Taylor Rogers available.

The Astros’ early offseason activity has primarily revolved around the pitching staff, yet nothing hangs over the offseason more than the shortstop situation. Carlos Correa is the top free agent on the market, and the possibility of the Astros losing one of their franchise players looms large. Houston owner Jim Crane is reportedly disinclined to go beyond a six-year guarantee in the Correa pursuit. With the two-time All-Star having a strong case for a deal that runs into the next decade, it seems increasingly likely he’ll wind up elsewhere in the weeks following the lockout.

If Correa does walk, how does Houston approach the position? They could pivot to the other star free agent shortstop available, Trevor Story. The former Rockie might land a contract in the five-year or six-year range with which Crane seems to be more comfortable, and the Astros expressed some interest in Story before the transactions freeze. Yet Story’s coming off his worst offensive showing in four years, and it remains to be seen if the Astros want to commit a nine-figure investment to another infielder with José Altuve and Alex Bregman each slated to earn at least $29MM annually between 2023-24.

That’s particularly true given the presence of top prospect Jeremy Peña. A highly-regarded defensive shortstop, Peña missed most of the 2021 campaign recovering from wrist surgery. He returned late in the year and hit well over two months at Triple-A before being added to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft. Turning shortstop over to Peña right out of the gate might be too risky for a win-now club, but it’s possible the organization is counting on him to seize the job by the middle of the year.

If that’s the case, then a stopgap option might be preferable. Utilityman Aledmys Díaz could be in consideration for such a role, although he’s not an ideal fit at the position defensively. A run at a glove-first shortstop to split time with Díaz could make some sense. In such a scenario, the superior defender could get the bulk of the playing time behind ground-ball specialists like Valdez and McCullers while Díaz plays behind a fly-ball oriented pitcher in the Urquidy or Garcia mold. Andrelton Simmons, probably the best defensive shortstop of this generation, is available in free agency and could likely be had for a low-cost, one-year deal. On the trade market, players like Nick Ahmed, Paul DeJong and Isiah Kiner-Falefa might all be made available.

The rest of the starting lineup is pretty well set. Gurriel, Altuve and Bregman will have the remainder of the infield locked down. Martín Maldonado and Jason Castro are back to share the catching duties. Michael Brantley will play left field regularly, so long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker is established in the other corner. Yordan Álvarez is the designated hitter, and he’s capable of spelling Brantley in left on occasion to give the 34-year-old a breather.

There’s an outside chance of Houston making a splash in center field. They’ve been linked to stars there in trade over the past few months, and it’s possible they inquire about players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds coming out of the lockout. It seems unlikely either the Orioles or Pirates wind up pulling the trigger on that kind of deal, though, and the free agent center field market is completely barren.

Barring a surprise trade strike for a star, José Siri and Chas McCormick seem likely to hold down center, with Jake Meyers also in the mix whenever he’s fully recovered from shoulder surgery. None of those players are locks to provide above-average production, but they all played well as rookies in 2021. Relying on that group shouldn’t be all that problematic, and the Astros can reevaluate midseason if all three players regress.

Aside from shortstop, the Astros’ position player group might be the most stable around the league. There’s virtually no other uncertainty other than how to replace (or retain) Correa. Perhaps a right-handed hitting corner outfielder/DH could be of interest, as each of Brantley, Tucker and Álvarez hit left-handed. Yet all three players are going to be in the lineup on most days anyhow, so that’d be more of a luxury buy than anything else.

Even facing the possibility of Correa walking, the Astros will go into 2022 with a quality roster. They’re returning the bulk of a lineup that was the league’s most productive by measure of wRC+ this past season. The starting staff is strong enough they could consider trading from the depth. The bullpen may be the comparative weak point on the roster, but one more addition — particularly from the left side — could tie that group together nicely.

There should be opportunity for Click and his staff to add, even if dropping $300MM+ on Correa may not be in the cards. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects the club’s 2022 payroll at $170MM, around $15MM – $20MM below where it sat heading into 2021. Houston narrowly ducked below the luxury tax threshold this year as well, so it’s possible they’ll be willing to exceed that figure (wherever it lands in the next CBA) after resetting their tax bracket to avoid escalating penalties.

The Astros aren’t operating in a vacuum. While the A’s look likely to take a step back, the other three teams in the AL West have been among the most active this offseason. The Rangers probably aren’t yet serious threats, but the Mariners and Angels could push towards the top of the division if everything goes well.

Those clubs will have their work cut out for them knocking the Astros from their perch, though, even after accounting for the potential loss of Correa. His departure would certainly make them worse, but there’s so much talent on the roster that the window’s in no danger of closing completely. Regardless of what they do over the coming months, Houston should enter 2022 as one of the top contenders in the American League.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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With a burgeoning payroll, can the White Sox find a strong replacement for Carlos Rodon and upgrade at second base and/or right field?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $36.5MM through 2023
  • Dallas Keuchel, SP: $19.5MM through 2022.  Includes $20MM club option for 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $18MM through 2022
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: $16MM through 2022
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $42MM through 2024 (technically through ’23 but the option and buyout prices are the same)
  • Lance Lynn, SP: $38MM through 2023.  Includes $18MM club option for 2024
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $10.5MM through 2022.  Includes $12.5MM club option for ’23 and $14MM club option for ’24
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $59MM through 2024.  Includes $25MM club option for ’25
  • Kendall Graveman, RP: $24MM through 2024
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: $32MM through 2024.  Includes $16.5MM club option for ’25 and $18.5MM club option for ’26
  • Luis Robert, CF: $45MM through 2025.  Includes $20MM club options for ’26 and ’27
  • Leury Garcia, IF: $16.5MM through 2024.
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $13MM through 2024.  Includes $7.25MM club option for ’25 and $7.5MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $6MM club option on 2B Cesar Hernandez
  • Exercised $16MM club option on RP Craig Kimbrel

Free Agents

The White Sox won the AL Central this year, marking back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in the club’s storied 121-year history.  Prior to 2020, the team hadn’t even put together a winning record since 2012.  The White Sox are here to stay as a perennial contender, even if they went quietly to the Astros in the ALDS this year.  As you can see in the contracts section above, the team has already locked up core pieces and should have relatively strong continuity for the next several years.

Several significant moves and non-moves took place prior to the December 2nd lockout.  The White Sox made a pair of unsurprising option decisions, cutting second baseman Cesar Hernandez loose and retaining reliever Craig Kimbrel.  I wonder if the Kimbrel decision represents something of a sunk cost fallacy, with the Sox having surrendered former first rounder Nick Madrigal plus reliever Codi Heuer to acquire Kimbrel from the Cubs at the July deadline.  Who the White Sox gave up, of course, should have had no bearing on Kimbrel’s option decision.  The team only had 25 innings in which to evaluate Kimbrel, during which his extreme home run tendencies returned.

Since 2019, Kimbrel has been an effective pitcher for only the 36 2/3 innings at the beginning of the ’21 season.  But in those 39 games, Kimbrel was utterly dominant, allowing only two earned runs.  Even heading into his age-34 season, Kimbrel is undoubtedly one of the top strikeout relievers in the game, ranking third in that metric since 2020.  The question is whether home run and walk proclivities will be an issue in 2022, and I don’t think anyone really knows the answer.  The White Sox, who appear to be bumping up against their payroll limit, gambled $16MM that Good Kimbrel will show up over the next 60 innings or at least that they can unload him to positive effect.

White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.”  Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.”  That’s not a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.

The White Sox struck a pre-lockout deal with one of the top free agent relivers in Kendall Graveman, seemingly only increasing the chances of a Kimbrel trade.  Possible matches for Kimbrel could include the Tigers and Royals, but intra-division trades among contenders can be tough.  The Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Phillies make some theoretical sense, but it will not be easy for Hahn to find a team willing to take on a $16MM closer and give up a player of value.  Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.

The White Sox also made the curious choice not to issue the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Carlos Rodon.  Rodon was a surprise Cy Young contender through mid-July, but wore down thereafter and experienced a velocity dip.  Soon after the Rodon decision, Noah Syndergaard, with two innings under his belt from 2020-21, snagged a one-year, $21MM deal from the Angels.  Hahn offered little insight into the team’s decision, saying, “We made the assessment based on everything we know, which includes our needs and our other targets, that that wasn’t an offer we were comfortable making at this time.”

The implication is that the White Sox felt that A) there was a real chance of Rodon accepting the QO and B) that would have been a bad thing for the team.  On both fronts, the team has more information than we do.  We don’t know exactly how Scott Boras played it and if maybe he bluffed his way out of the QO by intimating they might accept.  Afterward, of course, Boras acted as if there was never a chance Rodon would accept.  Additionally, no one knows Rodon’s health better than the White Sox.  Health concerns are one potential justification for not offering the QO to Rodon.  If the club thought Rodon is likely to provide even 100 innings of 3.50 ball in 2022, the QO is an easy yes.

There’s also the chance that the White Sox budgeted $20MM+ for a potential frontline starter, and they wanted to keep their options open and attempt to acquire someone they feel is better than Rodon.  Case in point Justin Verlander, in whom the Sox “showed strong interest” prior to his re-upping with the Astros, according to Bob Nightengale.  The White Sox already have a projected rotation of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, and Michael Kopech.  Allowing that they could attempt to dump Keuchel’s salary, there’s generally room for only one addition.  Save for perhaps Clayton Kershaw, who’s unlikely to sign in Chicago, free agency doesn’t offer anyone of Rodon’s caliber.  The post-lockout trade market, however, could be robust.  If Hahn were to come up with, say, Frankie Montas, the Rodon decision would look reasonable.

Second base remains a clear area of need for the White Sox.  Nick Madrigal is now across town, and the club declined Cesar Hernandez’s option after he posted a 70 wRC+ for them.  The White Sox have Leury Garcia back in the fold as a fallback, but they could consider acquiring Jean Segura, Ketel Marte, Josh Harrison, DJ LeMahieu, Jeff McNeil, or Jed Lowrie.  Also consider the summer report that the White Sox were interested in acquiring Trevor Story and playing him at second base back in July.  If multiyear offers are not to Story’s liking, he could land in Chicago on a one-year deal and attempt to pull a Marcus Semien.  I don’t think a Semien reunion was ever a consideration for the White Sox, but they have seen a few more affordable second base options come off the board in Chris Taylor and Eduardo Escobar.

Since the White Sox non-tendered Avisail Garcia three years ago, they’ve been searching for a solution in right field.  In the three years that followed, Ryan Cordell, Nomar Mazara, and Adam Eaton were their innings leaders at the position.  Aside from Leury Garcia, the club has solid internal options for ’22 in Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Engel.  Vaughn, the most promising hitter of the bunch, spent most of ’21 filling in at the other outfield corner with Eloy Jimenez out.  The club is not in desperation mode here, but they figure to monitor the market.  What the White Sox do with right field might depend on the caliber of player they add for the rotation and second base.  Available right field-capable players could include Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Wil Myers, Max Kepler, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Jorge Soler, Andrew McCutchen, and Manuel Margot, though not all of those would be upgrades over internal options.

Along with all these permutations, the team’s payroll must be considered.  The White Sox’ 2021 Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM was an all-time high, just a hair above where they peaked a decade prior.  The team currently has 13 players under contract for 2022 at a total of $152.75MM, plus a projected $12.9MM for their arbitration eligible trio.  That brings the total to around $165MM for 15 players, with an MLB-wide expected minimum salary increase on the way.  It’s unclear how far owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to go and how much of Kimbrel and perhaps Keuchel’s salary can be cleared.  Abreu, Keuchel, and Kimbrel are off the books after ’22, though the club figures to attempt to extend Abreu.  Plus, the club has scheduled or expected raises to Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, Robert, Jimenez, and Bummer in ’23.

Rodon was the top White Sox pitcher by WAR in 2021 in just 132 2/3 innings, so replacing his production will not be easy.  Though the team’s four division-mates didn’t put up much of a fight in ’21, the Tigers have already made major additions.  All five clubs now fancy themselves contenders.  While the White Sox are still the AL Central favorite currently, there’s work to be done once the lockout ends.

Ballparking A Corbin Burnes Extension

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Coming off a 2021 season that saw them run away with the NL Central behind a stable of controllable arms that put up high-end numbers for salaries that fell well below market value, the Brewers’ pitching staff is among the great envies of Major League Baseball. While many of their salaries will rise through arbitration in 2022 – Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader are each slated for hefty raises – no decision facing Brewers GM Matt Arnold will have a greater bearing on the club’s future than his approach to reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner Corbin Burnes.

After pitching last season for a relatively piddly $608K, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz has Burnes slated for an even $4MM salary in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility, should he and the Brewers choose to go that route. While it clearly won’t come cheap, Arnold and the Brewers will at least want to kick the tires on a possible extension with their ace. With dollars flying around at an unprecedented rate before the lockout, though, what such an extension might look like remains an open question. Should the Brewers follow the arbitration path for the duration of Burnes’ eligibility, he’d become a free agent following his age-29 season in 2024.

While pinpointing a length or dollar-figure would be pure guesswork, we can safely say that a Burnes extension won’t come cheap. Burnes’ stellar 2021 didn’t come out of nowhere, exactly, but few would have predicted the dominance he displayed, particularly given that he had cracked top-prospect lists only shortly before his 2018 debut and entered 2021 with just 13 lifetime big-league starts. He’d also fallen on his face in a rotation stint to open the 2019 season, allowing 11 homers across three outings, and performed only marginally better out of the bullpen (7.76 ERA in 28 relief appearances, 10.70 in four starts).

Burnes’ huge step forward in 2020 came largely as the result of a plummeting home run rate (from 7.2% in 2019 to a miniscule 0.8% in 2020). In 2021, he nearly maintained the same low home run rate (1.1%) while cutting his walk rate almost in half to the lowest mark in the NL (from 10% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021), while his home-run rate, K-rate (35.6%), K/BB ratio (6.88), and FIP (1.63) all led the majors among qualified starters. He also won the big-league ERA title with a 2.43 mark in 167 innings.

Given the relative scarcity of pitchers of Burnes’ caliber at this point in their careers, comparisons are scant. The White Sox gave Chris Sale $32MM over five years ahead of the 2013 season, but he was still a year from arbitration and only had one year as a starter—and no Cy Youngs—under his belt at the time. The seven years and $175MM the Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg in May 2016—which also included an opt-out clause he wound up using—came only a few months ahead of Strasburg reaching free agency (albeit with a Tommy John surgery on file). Similarly, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $137.5MM whopper came just ahead of his final arb-year. (On one hand, deGrom was 31 in 2019, significantly older than Burnes, but is also in a class of his own.)

Perhaps a better comp is Aaron Nola’s four year, $45MM pact (also with a club option) with the Phillies in 2019, which came at the same point in his arbitration cycle, though the comparison is far from perfect. While Nola was at the time a year younger than Burnes is now and had a longer track record as an effective big-league starter, he’d never reached (and hasn’t since) quite the heights Burnes has over the last two seasons. The closest comparison, then, is likely the $50MM over five years the Rays gave to Blake Snell following his dominant 2018 Cy Young season. That backloaded deal, which came a year ahead of Snell’s arbitration eligibility, followed a breakout campaign on the heels of strong but not spectacular performances in the two years prior.

The Brewers will likely be more than willing to give Burnes (and his dominant cutter) quite a bit more in the ways of both years and dollars than the Phillies gave Nola or the Rays gave Snell, perhaps inching him a bit closer to Strasburg and deGrom. They should also have money to spend; the eight-figure salaries of Avisail Garcia (signed with the Marlins) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (traded to the Red Sox) have both come off their books, while Lorenzo Cain’s will do the same after he plays out his $18MM guarantee in 2022. They’ll remain on the hook for $26MM/year to Christian Yelich through 2028, but they otherwise have no salary commitments in 2023 beyond $3.735MM to starter Freddy Peralta and a $2MM buyout to second baseman Kolten Wong.

They will, of course, also want to augment a lineup that lagged well behind the rotation in overall production, but figuring out the plan with their rotation anchor is certain to be their first priority. Something in the neighborhood of a five- or six-year guarantee that pushes the nine-figure mark – perhaps also including performance escalators and/or a high-dollar club option or two – might be enough to satisfy club and player, guaranteeing the Brewers cost certainty and control of their franchise player beyond his arbitration years and Burnes significant financial security.

With the small-market Brewers in the middle of a contention window and Burnes’ rotation-mates Woodruff and Peralta under club control through 2024 and 2026, respectively, Brewers fans can likely count on the same sort of high-end starting pitching that propelled the 2021 club for at least a few more years regardless of Burnes’ contract status. Lefty Eric Lauer and late-bloomer Adrian Houser will likely return to round out the rotation in 2022, each in his first of arb-eligibility, granting the club an enviable expectation of consistency in the rotation. Graduating prospect Aaron Ashby, who pitched to a 4.55 ERA in 31 2/3 innings in 2021, may also push for a spot in rotation, though Craig Counsell may choose to keep him in the bullpen (or stash him in AAA) until his services as a starter are required.

While the small-market Brewers will likely have to dole out a bit more in the way of years and dollars than they’d like to keep their ace around in the long term, it may just be a risk they have to take. If Burnes can stay healthy and duplicate his recent dominance into his early 30s, the club would at minimum have the sort of top-of-the-rotation workhorse that perennial playoff teams rely on to reach the tournament year after year. And if Burnes preserves anything like his form over the last two seasons over the long haul, it would be a risk they’re glad they took.

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