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Archives for January 2023

Royals Sign Johan Camargo To Minor League Deal

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The Royals signed Johan Camargo to a minor league, the team announced. Though the team hasn’t announced it, the deal presumably comes with an invite to big league spring training camp.

Camargo, 29, spent the past season with the Phillies, tallying 166 plate appearances over 52 games after initially joining on a minor league pact. He hit three home runs and put up a .237/.297/.316 line.

Camargo had a couple of productive seasons for the Braves after being called up for the first time in 2017. During 2017-18, he hit 23 home runs and put up a wRC+ of 110 over 780 plate appearances. Combined with some strong defense at third base, Camargo put up 4.6 fWAR in those first two seasons in Atlanta and looked to be establishing himself as a valuable contributor for the Braves.

His production fell off considerably from 2019, and since then he’s put up a well below-average wRC+ of just 66, 34 percent below the league average. Camargo was mostly used as a shortstop by the Phillies, and has appeared at other infield and outfield spots over his career, but generally grades out best at third.

 

Rockies Sign Harold Castro To Minor League Deal

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The Rockies have landed infielder Harold Castro on a minor league deal, MLBTR can confirm. The move was first reported by Efrain Zavarce of IVC Networks. The deal comes with an invite to major league spring training. Castro is represented by the MAS+ Agency.

Castro, 29, put up a .271/.300/.381 line with seven home runs over 443 plate appearances for the Tigers last year, good for a wRC+ of 94, or a bit below league average. Castro is a utility player in every sense of the word, and appeared at every position bar catcher and right field in 2022. The bulk of that work was logged in the infield, with a fairly even split around the four positions.

Originally signed by the Tigers back in 2011 out of Venezuela, Castro had spent his entire career with the organization. He debuted with a ten plate appearance cup of coffee in 2018, and went on to appear in 351 games for the Tigers over the next five seasons, putting up a combined .284/.309/.377 line with 15 home runs in that time.

Castro should compete for a bench spot in spring, and would seem to have a decent chance of making the roster. Elehuris Montero can cover the corner infield spots, but the Rockies don’t currently have a clear backup for rookie shortstop Ezequiel Tovar.

John Angelos Hopes Orioles’ Payroll Can Return To Top Half Of League

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The Orioles have been mired in a lengthy rebuild for a number of years now, but as the team shows signs of a return to competitiveness there come the inevitable questions about how far a team is willing to bump payroll to maximize their window.

In 2022, the team’s opening day payroll was the lowest in all of baseball, the fourth straight year it ranked in the bottom five in the league, according to Cot’s Baseball. Of course, Baltimore was deep in a rebuild during that time and not focused on adding significant contracts. Yet as the team returns to relevance on the heels of an 83-79 2022 season, O’s fans would rightfully hope the team would be prepared to bump payroll to supplement their exciting young core.

“I’d love to be sitting in New York with $300 million payrolls. You’ve got to build it like any small, medium or large business. It’s cyclical, and then you hope that you can continue to feed that cycle, and I think we will be able to [return to the top half of the league],” Orioles CEO and chairman John Angelos said on 105.7 The Fan (via the Baltimore Sun).

History would suggest that the Orioles will do just that. Between 2011-18 the team regularly sat in the middle-to-upper part of the league in terms of payroll, a period in which the team made three playoff appearances out of the competitive AL East. That saw Opening Day payroll rise as high as $164MM in 2017, around four times as high as their Opening Day figure last season.

The team certainly has room to add payroll, yet it’s been a largely quiet winter for Baltimore. They’ve signed veteran starter Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal, infielder Adam Frazier for $8MM and reliever Mychal Givens for $5MM. Those modest additions leave them on track for a 2023 payroll of $63MM, according to Fangraphs, that would have it on track to be the second lowest in baseball, per Cot’s.

Orioles fans would have every right to be a bit frustrated by that. GM Mike Elias says the team is still pursuing upgrades and would like to add another starter, according to the Baltimore Sun.

“We had some very close opportunities where it just went in a different direction,” Elias said. “We’ve been talking to everybody, there’s nothing imminent as of this afternoon, but that changes with sort of one text, one phone call sometimes. We really like our team. We see areas where we can get better, and we’re trying to pursue those players, but there’s competition out there.”

With the free agent market largely thinned out, it does appear that the trade market would be Baltimore’s avenue to any upgrades. The Orioles have one of the top farm systems in all of baseball, including eight players on Baseball America’s recently released Top 100 list, so do have a number of prospects that could be used to get a deal done. Of course, a number of those players will be viewed as long term building blocks in Baltimore, but the team could tap into their prospect wealth to put themselves in a better position to compete in 2023.

Twins, Marlins Swap Luis Arraez For Pablo Lopez In Four-Player Trade

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Months of rumors about the Marlins’ rotation have finally resulted in some action, as the Marlins have traded right-hander Pablo Lopez, top infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Twins in exchange for reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, per announcements from both clubs.

The core of the trade, for immediate purposes, will see the Twins swap out three years of Arraez for two seasons of Lopez, who’ll immediately be an upgrade to their rotation. The 26-year-old Lopez has come into his own as a quality big league starter over the past three seasons, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate and a 47.4% ground-ball rate in 340 innings.

Lopez has dealt with some injury issues in his career, thrice landing on the injured list due to shoulder strains. The most recent of those three injuries came in the summer of 2021 and wiped out more than two months of Lopez’s season, but he was injury-free in 2022 when pitching to a career-high 180 innings over the life of 32 starts. Last year’s performance netted Lopez a still eminently affordable $5.45MM salary. He’ll be due one more raise in arbitration in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency following the 2024 campaign — barring an extension, of course.

The newly acquired Lopez will step into a Twins rotation that also includes Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. Though it was easy to wonder whether Lopez could push Kenta Maeda into a bullpen role after he missed the entire 2022 season on the heels of internal brace surgery on his right elbow in Sept. 2021, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that Maeda will remain a starter.

The likeliest odd man out of conventional five-man rotation is 27-year-old Bailey Ober, but the towering righty has pitched to a sharp 3.82 ERA in 31 starts to begin his big league career — including a 3.21 mark in 56 innings last season. (Ober missed more than three months due to a severe groin strain.) Alternatively, the Twins could look to deploy a six-man rotation that would help them manage Maeda’s workload and hopefully lead to better health among a starting staff that was generally hampered by injury throughout the 2022 season.

Meanwhile, with Arraez now subtracted from the Twins’ lineup, they’ll lose their leadoff man, one of their best hitters and one of their primary options at first base and designated hitter. His departure likely opens the door for 25-year-old Alex Kirilloff to slot in as the primary first baseman. Kirilloff, a former first-round pick, ranked as one of the sport’s 10 to 15 best prospects prior to his big league debut, but he’s now undergone wrist surgery in each of the past two seasons, derailing the start to his career. There’s quite a bit of upside there, but quite a bit of risk as well. It’s always possible the Twins look to add another established hitter to help soften the blow of losing Arraez, but the first base and DH markets in free agency have been largely picked over, so if that’s the route they choose, it’ll likely have to come via another trade.

On the other side of the swap, the Marlins will get a left-handed bat to help balance out a heavily right-handed lineup. Arraez brings to Miami perhaps the most impeccable bat-to-ball skills in Major League Baseball, having fanned in just 8.3% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 22-year-old back in 2019. He doesn’t walk at an especially high clip, but Arraez’s mark of 8.7% is still higher than both his strikeout rate and this past season’s league-average 8.2% walk rate.

Arraez, 26 in April, hit .316/.375/.420 with a career-high eight home runs in 2022 and is a lifetime .314/.374/.410 hitter in the Major Leagues. His contact skills are second to none and will likely always allow him to hit for a high average, but the rest of his game is rather limited. Arraez is lacking in power, evidenced by a career .096 ISO (slugging minus batting average), and his average sprint speed is below average, per Statcast.

While he debuted as a second baseman, defensive struggles have left Arraez as something of a position-less nomad. He’s bounced between second base, first base, third base and left field, delivering lackluster defensive grades at each of those spots other than first base. He’ll primarily play second base in Miami, with general manager Kim Ng subsequently announcing that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is moving to center field.

Like Lopez, Arraez has some worrying injury issues on his resume. A torn ACL during his prospect days torched his 2017 season, and he’s been on the injured list three times since Opening Day 2020 due to knee troubles as well. Arraez also spent a week on the 7-day concussion IL in 2021 and missed nearly three weeks of that season due to a shoulder strain.

Arraez is arbitration-eligible for the second time this offseason and, as a Super Two player, still has two years of arbitration remaining beyond the current campaign. He and the Twins couldn’t come to terms on an agreement prior to last week’s deadline to exchange arbitration figures; the Twins filed at a $5MM mark, while Arraez’s camp countered with a $6.1MM submission. Now that he’s with a new team, it’s possible Arraez could agree to a one-year deal somewhere between those points, or perhaps even discuss a lengthier pact. If not, his subsequent arbitration raises will take his salary north of $10MM by his final year of club control, in 2025.

For the Marlins, dropping Lopez from the rotation positions them to deploy a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, with several intriguing arms still waiting in the wings behind that quintet. Arraez will deepen and strengthen what’s been a lackluster Miami lineup, and the organization’s rotation depth is strong enough to withstand the loss of Lopez.

There’s little doubting, however, that the defense will suffer from both the acquisition of Arraez and last week’s trade of Miguel Rojas. The Marlins now look set to play Joey Wendle at shortstop, while Chisholm will have to learn a brand new center field position on the fly. Overall, the gambit of dropping Rojas and adding Arraez in the name of balancing and improving the lineup could have the unfortunate side effect of dropping Miami from a middle-of-the-pack defensive club to one of the worst in the National League.

The prospects in the deal are both long-term plays for the Twins, making them somewhat curious secondary pieces for a team that’s clearly bidding for immediate contention in the wake of their stunning deal to re-sign Carlos Correa. That said, recent trades for Mahle, Gray and others have thinned out the Twins’ system in considerable fashion, so backfilling with some youthful talent helps straddle the line of building for both the short- and long-term.

Salas is particularly well regarded, originally signing for a $2.8MM bonus and currently ranking fourth in Miami’s system at Baseball America. He’s a shortstop for the time being, though BA’s scouting report suggests a move to third base is possible, depending on the extent to which his still-lean frame grows. The switch-hitting Salas batted .250/.339/.384 against vastly older competition in 2022, splitting the year between Class-A and Class-A Advanced despite only turning 19 this past April.

Salas connected on nine homers and swiped 33 bases in 109 games. Scouting reports on Salas tout his work ethic, his feel for contact and the potential for at least average power. He’ll immediately become one of the Twins’ top overall prospects, but he won’t add any value to their 2023 club (aside from perhaps giving them more flexibility when it comes to negotiating additional trades).

Chourio is even younger, having just signed as an amateur out of Venezuela one year and five days ago. Despite playing the season at just 17 years old, the switch-hitting outfielder took the Dominican Summer League by storm, raking at a .344/.429/.410 clip with a homer, nine doubles, 19 steals and nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27) in 217 plate appearances.

Chourio won’t even turn 18 until May, so even wildly optimistic projections would have him three years away from being a legitimate big league possibility, and it’s quite likely that he’s even further off than that. Still, there’s plenty to like about him despite the lack of proximity to the Majors. In addition to his eye-catching pro debut, Baseball America’s Ben Badler touted Chourio’s physical projection, strong throwing arm, center field instincts and balanced swing when reviewing the Marlins’ international signing class last year.

Today’s trade puts an end to months of speculation and rumors regarding Lopez, who finally knows where he’ll spend at least the next two seasons of his career. It remains possible, given Miami’s depth and the needs they have elsewhere on the roster, that they could further tap into that group in an effort to bolster the lineup and reshape an increasingly questionable defense. On the Twins’ end of things, Lopez isn’t clearly better than any of their in-house options, but they’ll add another mid-rotation arm to a starting staff deep in comparable talents, helping to safeguard against injury and adding some stability beyond the current season, when each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become free agents. They’ll also restock a farm system that’s been taxed by recent trades, but the swap feels more like a next step than the final piece of an offseason puzzle.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the two teams were progressing toward a deal involving Arraez and Lopez. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the deal was done. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reported the names of the two prospects going back to Minnesota (Twitter links).

Rockies Not Anticipating Significant Roster Move For Remainder Of Offseason

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It has been a quiet offseason in Denver. The Rockies have made a few depth acquisitions, primarily on the pitching staff. They re-signed José Ureña to a $3.5MM deal and brought in reliever Pierce Johnson on a $5MM contract. Brent Suter, Connor Seabold and Nick Mears were added via minor trade or waiver claims. The most significant move of the offseason was the surprising acquisition of young left-handed power hitter Nolan Jones for infield prospect Juan Brito back in November.

Despite their lack of free agent activity, it seems the club is mostly content to carry the roster as it stands into Spring Training. General manager Bill Schmidt told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post this afternoon the group was mostly set (Twitter link). Schmidt added the club would continue to explore potential pitching acquisitions and ways to bolster the depth more broadly, but it seems any further moves will be fairly minor.

That might be disheartening for the Colorado fanbase with the club coming off a 68-94 season, though it wasn’t unforeseeable. Last offseason’s Kris Bryant deal and the club’s series of recent extensions for players like Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Ryan McMahon and Elias Díaz added significant money to the payroll. Colorado entered the offseason with a player payroll at franchise-record levels after accounting for the additional $21MM they”ll owe the Cardinals as part of the Nolan Arenado trade.

With that financial situation, it’s not too surprising the organization mostly sat out free agency. The Rox showed some interest in adding to the starting five and/or bringing in a lefty-hitting outfielder (particularly a center fielder) but seemed eventually priced out of both markets. Perhaps the front office will eventually add a depth arm for the back of the rotation — particularly with Senzatela starting the season on the injured list after tearing his ACL late last summer — but the notable outfield pickup no longer seems to be in the cards.

At the same time, the franchise has again steadfastly refused to entertain any kind of rebuild. For the past few years, Colorado ownership and the front office have maintained faith they have the nucleus of a viable contender and have shown no interest in tearing things down. Reports last month suggested the Rockies were in touch with the Marlins about potentially swapping out second baseman Brendan Rodgers for an immediate MLB starter in Edward Cabrera. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last night that Colorado eventually backed away from that framework.

Without any kind of notable overhaul, it’s difficult to imagine the Rockies finishing any higher than fourth in the NL West during the upcoming season. Colorado has seen some positive developments in the farm system though. The Rockies had four players place on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects this week. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar got a cup of coffee in the majors last fall and looks likely to be the primary shortstop this year. Outfielder Zac Veen, catcher Drew Romo and middle infielder Adael Amador are each further away but could at least be in the mix in the upper minors.

Red Sox Notes: Middle Infield, Hernandez, Arroyo, Sale, Whitlock, Houck

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Red Sox’s brass met with reporters and fans at their Winter Weekend convention this evening. Manager Alex Cora and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom each addressed the roster status with roughly two months remaining in the offseason.

The middle infield is among the biggest questions. With Xander Bogaerts in San Diego and Trevor Story set to miss at least a notable portion of the upcoming season, Boston has very little certainty up the middle. Adam Duvall agreed to a one-year deal earlier this week to man center field, likely kicking Enrique Hernández back to the infield.

Manager Alex Cora suggested that was currently the team’s plan, implying that Hernández was the in-house favorite to play shortstop (via Ian Browne of MLB.com). That leaves Christian Arroyo as the likeliest option to man second base. Bloom indicated the team remained open to adding help from outside the organization (relayed by Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe) but the Hernández – Arroyo pairing seemingly has the inside track among internal candidates.

Hernández has experience at every non-catching position on the diamond. He’s primarily played center field or second base, logging just 618 shortstop innings through parts of nine MLB seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has looked favorably upon his limited work there, rating him as nine runs better than average overall. Hernández has typically graded out as a solid or better second baseman and a particularly strong center fielder, where he spent the bulk of his time in 2022.

Arroyo has been in the Boston second base mix for the past couple seasons. He’s hit at a roughly league average level in both years, making plenty of contact to compensate for low walk rates. Arroyo has logged just under 900 major league innings at the keystone. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him an excellent 10 runs better than the average defender there, while Statcast has rated him as an exactly average gloveman.

There aren’t many middle infield options remaining in free agency. Elvis Andrus and Josh Harrison are probably the top players still available. The Sox have been loosely tied to both in recent days. Donovan Solano, César Hernández and José Iglesias are among the depth types remaining as well.

There’s also a fair amount of uncertainty on the pitching side of things in Fenway, largely thanks to injury. Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock each ended the 2022 season on the injured list. Whitlock is returning from hip surgery, while Houck underwent a back procedure. Sale had myriad health concerns that culminated in surgery to repair a fracture in his right wrist sustained in a bicycle accident.

Cora said this evening that all three pitchers have been throwing off a mound (relayed by Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). All three could factor into the rotation. Sale’s a lock for the starting five if healthy. The Sox have already announced they plan to give Whitlock a rotation opportunity. Houck’s role seems more fluid, as he could crack the starting five or remain in a high-leverage relief capacity. The former first-round pick has been the subject of some recent trade speculation, though there’s no indication a deal is on the horizon or especially likely to transpire.

Big Hype Prospects: Wood, Holliday, Williams, Rodriguez, Crow-Armstrong

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The international signing market is well underway. We can think of these mostly 16-year-old boys as transplanted seeds. Some of them will grow big and strong over the next half-decade. Others will sprout then later wither during a drought or cold spell. Many won’t take to the new soil in which they’re planted. Perhaps the soil is too base or acidic. Or maybe a team thought they were buying one type of seed and actually got another. The wrong type of nurturing can ruin a plant. As outside observers, we can check back in a year or three once these youngsters have taken to their new soil.

Plant metaphor aside, we have a honking update from Baseball America to chew upon this week. They’ve released their initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list. I’m pleased to point out that Big Hype Prospects has correctly anticipated several notable surges up the prospect ranks, most notably number one overall Gunnar Henderson, number three Jackson Chourio, and number five Andrew Painter. Today, I’ll focus on a few names who have shot up the ranks.

For those of you who have been frustrated by the lack of “Big Hype” in our offseason prospects coverage, this is the episode for you.

Five BHPs In The News

James Wood, 20, OF, WSH (A)
(R/A) 348 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .313/.420/.536

Wood drew attention as the principal return in the Juan Soto trade. While he was joined by several promising young players, Wood is now seen as the “big get” in the deal. One concern from professional evaluators is the lack of successes from the Nationals development pipeline. While they’ve had a few big stars over the years (i.e. Soto), they’ve also seen a number of top prospects vastly underperform expectations (i.e. Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom).

If we assume the club doesn’t find some way to spoil Wood, there’s considerable upside here. Wood is built like a young Oneil Cruz. He’s a lean, physical giant with above-average speed, light tower raw power, a surprising feel for contact, and natural plate discipline. Like many young players, his contact profile is still geared toward ground balls. He also has an all-fields approach which has helped with his BABIPs at the expense of home runs. These will be the areas of his game likeliest to differentiate between a core performer or superstar future. Wood ranks 11th on the new Top 100 list.

Jackson Holliday, 19, 2B/SS, BAL (A)
(R/A) 90 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .297/.489/.422

The first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday checks in as the 15th prospect per Baseball America. In limited exposure, he demonstrated pristine plate discipline and only rarely whiffed. The Orioles have recently garnered a sterling reputation when it comes to developing middle infielders. Holliday is still built like a typical 19-year-old athlete. He’s expected to add weight in the coming years. Scouts believe he’ll grow into 60-grade power. “Grow” is the operative word. Holliday and the Orioles will want to be careful. Too much growth could lead to a future as a second baseman with average or worse speed. Too little growth could leave his bat lacking thump.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AA)
(A+/AA) 115 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.96 ERA

Williams looks the part of a future ace, combining an effective upper-90s heater with a plus slider and curve. Like many power pitchers, his changeup flashes as usable but lags behind the other offerings enough that it’ll play fourth fiddle. A fly-ball pitcher with average command, Williams should be ready to contribute in Cleveland this season – health allowing. Williams is rated 20th by Baseball America. Between him and fast-rising Daniel Espino (19th-ranked), the Cleveland rotation could feature two lethal aces by the start of 2024.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 531 PA, 25 HR, 2 SB, .323/.407/.590

Back in September, my sources were talking about bumping Rodriguez onto their Top 100 lists. I said the following:

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Rodriguez now ranks 23rd. Victory lap complete, Rodriguez is on the cusp of reaching the Majors. The Pirates have quietly given their roster a chance to “surprise contend.” One position they’ve done little to solve is catcher. They’re currently set to roll out a duo of defensive specialist Austin Hedges and perennial third-catcher Tyler Heineman.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHI (MLB)
(A/A+) 423 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .312/.376/.520

Crow-Armstrong is spoken of as a Kiermaierian defender, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire minor leagues. On this strength, Baseball America has ranked him 25th. Concerns about his hit tool have been alleviated following a successful 2022 campaign. It’s now believed he’ll settle in as an above-average hitter in addition to being the best defensive outfielder in the league. While that sounds like the profile of an easy Top 10 prospect, there are still enough ways for his bat to stumble to merit caution. The next hurdle for him is to see how his bat reacts to higher-quality breaking balls in the upper minors.

Five More

Kodai Senga, NYM (29): This column typically avoids international free agents. Technically, Senga is a prospect and ranks 16th. From the perspective of immediate contribution, only Henderson and Corbin Carroll are in the same stratosphere. Of course, Senga’s advanced age reduces his “value” as a prospect.

Evan Carter (20): Carter, another guy whose rise was anticipated by this column, is frequently comped to Brandon Nimmo. The left-handed hitter is carried by plate discipline and a feel for contact. His power isn’t a total zero, but it lags behind his other hitting traits. He might top out as a 20-homer threat, or he might not climb that far. Even so, he’s a high-probability future core performer. He’s ranked 26th. Teams value these sorts of players – just look at what Nimmo earned in free agency.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): There’s disagreement about which of the Diamondbacks young pitchers will turn out as the best performer. Baseball America has hitched its stakes to Pfaadt after his breakout 2022 campaign. He ranks 27th. We discussed him last week.

Marco Luciano, SFG (21): At one point, Luciano was trending toward top overall prospect status – much the way Chourio is now. Some of Luciano’s skills haven’t developed as expected, and his meteoric rise has stalled to a more gradual approach to the Majors. Luciano, 37th-ranked, still projects as a prodigious power hitter, one with flaws and a future move down the defensive spectrum.

Kevin Parada, NYM (21): At 50th on the list, Parada’s was the first name to catch me entirely by surprise. The 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Parada ranks where he does due to promising offensive traits and roughly average defense. Parada was taken with the compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker in 2021. Rocker, you might note, does not rank in the Top 100.

Yankees Reportedly Reluctant To Surpass Fourth Luxury Tax Tier

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The Yankees have had an aggressive offseason, retaining Aaron Judge on a record free agent deal while bringing in Carlos Rodón on a six-year contract. Those additions, plus a new two-year deal for Anthony Rizzo, accomplished most of the club’s heavy lifting.

It also positioned the organization to top last year’s franchise-record spending level. New York has roughly $272MM in player payroll commitments, per Roster Resource, handily above last year’s $254.7MM figure. The club’s luxury tax number is right up against the $293MM line that marks the highest tier of CBT penalization. Roster Resource projects the organization at $292.3MM at present.

That latter number seems particularly important to the organization. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Yankees don’t want to exceed the $293MM threshold. Considering where their payroll stands, rigidly sticking to that goal would rule out any other notable addition unless the club finds a way to shed some money.

The Yankee roster looks strong, with Rodón replacing Jameson Taillon in the rotation for a team that won 99 regular season games and made it to the AL Championship Series. Left field seems their biggest question mark, as last summer’s deadline acquisition Andrew Benintendi departed on a five-year free agent deal with the White Sox. The Yankees currently have veteran Aaron Hicks and youngster Oswaldo Cabrera as their top left field options. Hicks has posted below-average offensive numbers for the past two seasons. Cabrera showed well as a rookie but has only 44 games of MLB experience under his belt.

Heyman reiterates the Yankees’ previously reported interest in free agent left fielder Jurickson Profar but casts doubt on their chances of actually landing him in light of the club’s payroll stance. Heyman reports that veteran utilityman Josh Harrison is also of interest — presumably as a depth infield target who could also factor into the left field mix — but even a low base salary for Harrison would figure to push them past the $293MM CBT mark.

The fourth tax tier was introduced during the most recent round of collective bargaining. Set $60MM above the season’s base figure ($233MM this year), it involves at least an 80% tax on every dollar spent past the fourth tier. Teams paying the luxury tax for a second consecutive year — as the Yankees will be — are taxed at a 90% clip on additional expenditures.

One can argue whether it’s prudent for the Yankees to treat the $293MM figure as a strict cutoff as they look to repeat as division winners in another competitive AL East. As thing stand, the club is set to pay around $29MM in CBT fees. They’re already slated to see their top selection in the 2024 draft moved back ten spots for surpassing the $273MM mark. There’d be no additional draft penalties for surpassing the fourth threshold, though the financial disincentives are even higher. The Yankees certainly haven’t been frugal this winter, guaranteeing upwards of $570MM overall and pushing to second in 2023 spending. The crosstown Mets have proven thoroughly undeterred by the final tax tier, running a CBT payroll north of $360MM that’s easily the league’s highest.

A club’s competitive balance tax figure isn’t calculated until the end of a season. The Yankees could go above $293MM during the offseason while subsequently dipping below that threshold before year’s end. Alternatively, they could stick below the marker for now but reconsider going over at the summer trade deadline if they’re in contention as expected.

If that threshold is truly the line in the sand, trades would be the primary means of clearing additional breathing room. New York would surely welcome the opportunity to reallocate some of the $25MM CBT hit on the Josh Donaldson deal or the $10MM number of Hicks’ contract, but they’ve seemingly found little interest around the league. Players like Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa would draw more interest if New York wanted to make them available, though doing so would obviously deal a hit to their infield depth. Starter Frankie Montas is making $7.5MM and may have been a potential trade target after the club added Rodón; that’d be tougher to do now that Montas is a couple months behind schedule because of continued shoulder troubles.

Dodgers To Hire Chris Woodward As Special Assistant In Front Office

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The Dodgers are hiring former Rangers manager Chris Woodward as a special assistant in their front office, reports Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). He returns to the Los Angeles organization, where he spent three years as a member of Dave Roberts’ coaching staff before landing the top dugout job in Arlington.

Woodward, 46, played parts of 12 MLB seasons as a depth infielder. After retiring in 2012, he transitioned into his post-playing career. Woodward joined the Mariners as a minor league infield coordinator and was promoted to the big league coaching staff the next season. He spent two years on staff in Seattle before joining the Dodgers as third base coach over the 2015-16 offseason.

That experience set the stage for Woodward to receive a fair bit of managerial attention. He was mentioned as part of the Yankees’ search that went to Aaron Boone and the Blue Jays’ process that eventually led to Charlie Montoyo. Woodward landed the top gig for the first time during the 2018-19 offseason, tabbed to lead a rebuilding Rangers club on a three-year contract.

Texas signed him to an extension after two seasons, guaranteeing his contract through 2023. That was the opening move of an active offseason for the Rangers, one they hoped would result in a notable step forward in the on-field results. Full-fledged contention in 2022 wasn’t likely, but Texas brass surely anticipated laying the foundation for a postseason-caliber team by 2023.

That didn’t pan out. With the club carrying a 51-63 record in the middle of August, the Rangers fired Woodward. President of baseball operations Jon Daniels was himself dismissed not long thereafter. Texas turned to Tony Beasley as skipper on an interim basis for the stretch run and hired Bruce Bochy to permanently lead the charge this offseason. The Rangers went 211-287 over Woodward’s tenure, though they anticipated a fair number of losses early on.

Padres Outright Sean Poppen

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The Padres announced Friday evening that reliever Sean Poppen has gone unclaimed on waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A El Paso. There’d been no previous indication Poppen was designated for assignment, so the move clears a spot on the San Diego 40-man roster. That count drops to 39.

Poppen landed in San Diego last month on a waiver claim from Arizona. The right-hander has pitched in the majors in each of the last four seasons, with the majority of that work coming since the start of 2021. Poppen has played for four different clubs, spending the past year-plus with the Diamondbacks.

In 67 1/3 career innings, the Harvard product has a 5.08 ERA. He’s posted a slightly below-average 22.3% strikeout rate and 10% walk percentage. It was a similar story in 2022, as Poppen worked to a 4.40 ERA across 28 2/3 frames. He struck out 18.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes at a 10% clip. He averaged a solid 94.6 MPH on his sinker but only generated swinging strikes on 6.3% of his total pitches.

Poppen has had more success in the minor leagues. He’s logged 121 innings over parts of three Triple-A seasons, working to a cumulative 3.50 ERA. The former 19th-round pick has fanned around 24% of opponents at the highest minor league level. He worked to a 4.62 ERA over 25 1/3 frames with Arizona’s top affiliate last year. That was his final option season, so the Friars couldn’t send him back to the minors without first passing him through waivers.

Despite appearing in parts of four MLB seasons, the 28-year-old has yet to reach two full years of big league service time. This is the first time in his career he’s been outrighted, so he won’t have the right to test minor league free agency. Poppen will presumably head to big league camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. If he doesn’t reclaim a 40-man roster spot before Opening Day, he’ll start the season in the El Paso bullpen.

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