Archives for September 2023

AL East Notes: Belt, Mountcastle, Adam, Arozarena

By Nick Deeds | September 24, 2023 at 8:27am CDT

Blue Jays slugger Brandon Belt has been on the shelf for the past two weeks with low back spasms, but could be nearing a return per MLB.com. The veteran has joined the club on their current road trip and has been progressing well. Toronto intends to “simulate game situations” today as a final step before his impending activation from the injured list.

It’s welcome news for the Blue Jays, as Belt’s 134 wRC+ this year is only bested by small-sample size efforts by Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement. In 382 trips to the plate this season, Belt has slashed a solid .251/.369/.470 in his shift to a part time role with Toronto. That production comes in spite of a career-high 35.1% strikeout rate, though his whiffs are offset somewhat by a 15.7% walk rate that’s excellent even by Belt’s own lofty standards. The return of Belt figures to push utility player Cavan Biggio back to the bench and could provide a spark for the Blue Jays as they find themselves in the second AL Wild Card spot with just seven games left in the regular season, one game up on the Astros and 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners.

More from around the AL East…

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde indicated to reporters (including MASN’s Roch Kubatko) yesterday that first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is progressing well in his rehab from a shoulder injury that sidelined him just over a week ago. Mountcastle hasn’t returned to hitting yet but stood in the batter’s box to track pitches during injured closer Felix Bautista’s most recent bullpen session. Though Bautista’s timetable for return still appears to be up in the air, Mountcastle is expected to be ready to come off the injured list in time for Wednesday’s game against the Nationals. Mountcastle is hitting a respectable .269/.327/.453 in 459 trips to the plate this season and has been covered for by Ryan O’Hearn at first base in recent days.
Rays reliever Jason Adam was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a strained oblique yesterday, just one day after returning from a three-week IL stint for a separate oblique strain. While Adam’s injury will sideline him into the postseason, the 31-year-old is nonetheless hopeful that he’ll be able to return this season if the Rays make a deep postseason run, as he told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he wants to return despite being “more sore this time than last time.” Adam’s 2023 regular season comes to a close with a 2.98 ERA, 4.00 FIP and 31.1% strikeout rate over 56 appearances.
Sticking with the Rays, outfielder Randy Arozarena is still day-to-day with tightness in his right quad. Despite manager Kevin Cash telling reporters (including MLB.com) that the 28-year-old could have been available off the bench during yesterday’s game against the Blue Jays, he didn’t make an appearance. Still, Arozarena told reporters through an interpreter that he was feeling “pretty good” and hoping to return in the near future. Arozarena’s return figures to provide a boost to the Rays lineup, as the first-time All Star has slashed .255/.363/.427 in 640 trips to the plate this year while acting as the club’s regular left fielder.

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Lefty Relievers

By Steve Adams | September 23, 2023 at 10:58pm CDT

We’ve been covering the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR. After covering the starters yesterday, we’re on to the relief group. We’ll begin with the southpaws.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Top of the Class

Josh Hader (30)

Long one of the game’s most dominant relievers, Hader now finds himself on the precipice of free agency, where he’ll be among the most sought-after talents on the market this winter. He’s no longer the premier strikeout arm in baseball but still sports the fifth-best strikeout rate of any qualified reliever in 2023 at 36.7%. The dip from his days of fanning around 45% of his opponents hasn’t made him any less effective, however. Hader boasts a sensational 1.21 ERA and has allowed all of three earned runs since Memorial Day.

There was some hand-wringing about the lefty’s struggles in the run-up to the 2022 trade deadline and about his early performance following a trade to the Padres. Hader quieted those concerns with a dominant showing both in September and in the postseason. Since being blown up for six runs on Aug. 28, 2022, Hader’s numbers look like this (postseason included): 68 2/3 innings, 1.05 ERA, 37.3% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, two home runs allowed (0.26 HR/9).

Hader has been a veritable bullpen cheat code this season and for much of his career. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, and he’ll reach free agency with his sights set on topping Edwin Diaz’s $102MM guarantee — the largest ever for any reliever — and should have a legitimate chance to do so.

High-Leverage Relievers

Aroldis Chapman (36)

It’s been a resurgent year for Chapman both in terms of velocity and overall results. His heater’s 99.1 mph average is at its highest point since the 2017 season, and Chapman has unsurprisingly seen notable improvement in his strikeout rate (42.9%) and swinging-strike rate (17.6%). Among 439 relievers who’ve pitched at least 10 innings this year, Chapman trails only Baltimore’s Felix Bautista in terms of strikeout rate.

Overall, the former Reds, Yankees and Cubs closer has pitched to a 2.75 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. Chapman’s command is always going to be shaky, and this year has been no exception; he’s allowed a free pass to 14.2% of his opponents. His sky-high strikeout rate has offset that, however, as he’s found success working primarily in a setup role between Kansas City and Texas. Chapman signed a one-year, make-good deal with the Royals this past offseason that guaranteed him $3.75MM. He’ll be in line for a considerably heavier payday this time around — quite possibly on a multi-year deal. He should have closing opportunities available to him.

Matt Moore (35)

It’s been quite the career arc for Moore. A top prospect and burgeoning star with the Rays early in his career, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, returned looking more like a fourth starter and, after being traded two different times, eventually settled into journeyman status. Moore had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers in 2022, but he’s found new life as a bona fide late-inning reliever over the past two seasons.

Moore’s 2022 breakout in Texas (1.95 ERA in 74 innings) led to a one-year, $7.55MM deal with the Angels in 2023, and he’s continued to demonstrate his efficacy in leverage situations. In 48 2/3 frames between the Angels and Guardians, the southpaw has a 2.77 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He’s picked up 21 holds as well.

Claimed off waivers by the Marlins this week, he’ll spend the final week-plus of the season in Miami and hope to help push them to a postseason spot, even though he won’t be eligible for the playoff roster. Dating back to 2022, Moore has a 2.27 ERA and 35 holds in 122 2/3 innings with a well above-average strikeout rate. He’s shown that his 2022 season wasn’t a fluke, and there ought to be multi-year offers waiting for him in free agency.

Wandy Peralta (32)

Acquired in an April 2021 trade that sent 2019 cult hero Mike Tauchman to the Giants, Peralta wound up providing the Yankees with two and a half seasons of quality bullpen innings. In 153 innings with the Yankees dating back to that ’21 trade, Peralta has turned in a sharp 2.83 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. He’s overwhelmed left-handed opponents, held his own against righties, and kept the ball on the ground at a roughly 55% clip — all while sporting a heater that averages better than 95 mph.

Peralta isn’t a household name, but he’s been a quietly solid big league reliever dating back to his 2020 season with the Giants — evidenced by a 3.01 ERA over 188 2/3 innings in that time. He could find a two-year deal in free agency this winter.

Will Smith (34)

After an up-and-down tenure in Atlanta over the course of his prior three-year deal, Smith lingered on the free agent market into March this past offseason. He’d turned things around following a trade to the Astros but still seemed to be met with skepticism, as he commanded a modest one-year, $2MM deal in free agency.

Through late August, the deal looked to be a bargain. Smith pitched to a 2.96 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates, but he’s hit a rocky stretch in the 2023 campaign’s final two months. Over his past 18 1/3 innings, Smith has been charged with 17 earned runs on 22 hits (three homers) and eight walks with 15 strikeouts. It’s ballooned his ERA from 2.96 all the way to 4.55. The veteran lefty’s 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 13% swinging-strike rate and 35.4% chase rate are all strong marks, but this recent rough patch could result in him settling for another one-year deal in his return to the market this winter.

Middle Relievers

Scott Alexander (34)

A ground-ball machine with good command who doesn’t miss many bats, Alexander has tossed 48 1/3 innings of 4.66 ERA ball for the Giants this year. San Francisco has used him as an opener on eight occasions as well. From 2016-22, Alexander notched 216 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA and mammoth 70.1% ground-ball rate. This year’s results aren’t great, but he should get a big league deal this winter.

Jake Diekman (37)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the veteran Diekman struggled through rough showings with the White Sox in both 2022 and early 2023 before bouncing back upon signing with the Rays. In 42 1/3 innings, the Diekman has pitched to a 2.34 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate. Command has been a problem for Diekman throughout his career, but he still throws hard and still misses bats at a high level. Tampa Bay hasn’t used him in high-leverage spots, but he’s had success more often than not there and should be in line for another big league deal this winter.

Brent Suter (34)

A waiver claim out of the Brewers organization early in the 2022-23 offseason, Suter hasn’t been fazed by pitching at altitude. In 64 2/3 innings with the Rox, he’s pitched to a 3.48 ERA — a near mirror image of the career 3.51 mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. Suter’s 18% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 8.8% walk rate is a career-high. However, the soft-tossing lefty has long been one of the game’s best at avoiding hard contact, and that’s true again in 2023: 83.6 mph average exit velocity, 3% barrel rate, 25.9% hard-hit rate. Opponents just don’t square the ball up against Suter, and he’s made a fine career out of that knack for weak contact.

Club Options

Andrew Chafin (34)

Chafin posted big strikeout numbers with the D-backs but has struggled since being traded to the Brewers, for whom he has a 7.82 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. The veteran southpaw was sporting a 3.06 ERA and matching FIP at the All-Star break — a number that falls right in line with the collective 3.05 ERA he posted in 289 innings from 2017-22. The recent rough patch stems from a small-sample spike in homers (three) and walks (eight) in his short time with Milwaukee. The poor results seem like they’ll lead to the Brewers opting for a $725K buyout rather than Chafin’s $7.25MM option price, but he should get a big league deal again in free agency this winter.

Jarlin Garcia (31)

Garcia didn’t wind up pitching at all with the Pirates after signing a one-year deal, as a biceps injury incurred in spring training ended up shelving him for the season. The Bucs will surely buy out his $3.25MM option.

Brad Hand (34)

Hand’s $7MM club option actually converted to a mutual option when he was traded from the Rockies to the Braves, but that’s a moot point. The former All-Star has limped to a 6.00 ERA with Atlanta, and the team will likely pay a $500K buyout.

Aaron Loup (36)

Loup pitched decently in 2022 — the first season of a two-year, $17MM free agent contract. He’s been roughed up to tune of a 6.10 ERA in 2023, however. A bloated .373 average on balls in play has surely played a role in that, but his strikeout, walk and grounder rates have all also continued to trend in the wrong direction since his career year with the Mets in 2021 (0.95 ERA in 56 2/3 innings). The Halos figure to pay the $2MM buyout on his $7.5MM option.

Brooks Raley (36)

Raley parlayed a successful three-year KBO run into a big league return in 2020, and he’s since solidified himself as a quality reliever. He’s sporting a 2.94 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate this season, albeit against a questionable 10.3% walk rate. Given Raley’s 2.81 ERA, nine saves and 46 holds in his past 105 2/3 innings, his $6.5MM club option seems like a good value. That’s especially true given that it comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a net $5.25MM call. Even if the Mets don’t want to pay that price plus the associated luxury tax fees, he should have trade value.

Joely Rodriguez (32)

Injuries have limited Rodriguez to only 11 innings this year, during which time he has a 6.55 ERA. The Red Sox shut him down from throwing due to a hip injury back in August. They’re a virtual lock to pay the $500K buyout rather than pick up Rodriguez’s $4.25MM option.

Justin Wilson (36)

Wilson signed a big league deal last winter while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Brewers were likely intrigued by the new slider he’d unveiled with the Reds in a tiny sample of 3 2/3 innings during the 2022 season. Wilson whiffed seven of his 13 opponents with a mammoth 18.5% swinging-strike rate before hitting the injured list and requiring surgery. Wilson completed a 14-month rehab only to suffer a lat strain while warming up in the bullpen for his return to a big league mound. That injury ended his season, and it’s likely the Brewers will decline his $2.5MM option in favor of a $150K buyout.

Veteran Depth and Bounceback Hopefuls

Fernando Abad (37), Richard Bleier (37), Amir Garrett (32), T.J. McFarland (35), Daniel Norris (31), Drew Pomeranz (34), Chasen Shreve (33)

All of these 30-something hurlers have had big league experience in the past. Abad was a quality middle reliever from 2013-17 but has just 37 big league innings since (6 1/3 coming with the Rockies this year). The soft-tossing Bleier was rocked in Boston this year but had a 3.09 ERA with the O’s and Marlins from 2020-22. Garrett has a history of missing bats for the Reds, but his longstanding command issues worsened with the Royals over the past two seasons. McFarland is a ground-ball specialist with good command but one of the game’s lowest strikeout rates. Norris has missed bats in the past but also been quite homer-prone. Pomeranz was one of the game’s best lefty relievers but hasn’t pitched since 2021 due to injury. Shreve’s career 3.97 ERA is solid, but he’s been inconsistent on a year-to-year basis recently.

This group figures to draw plenty of interest in minor league free agency over the winter but might have a hard time finding a guaranteed deal due to recent struggles and/or health woes.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner outfield, center field, designated hitter, starting pitcher.

All stats through play Thursday.

Giants Notes: Alexander, Junis, Bailey

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 10:38pm CDT

Prior to tonight’s game against the Dodgers, the Giants announced that they had placed left-hander Scott Alexander on the 15-day injured list with a strained left hamstring, with MLB.com noting that the veteran reliever will be sidelined for the remainder of the 2023 season, not just the minimum 15 days that would allow Alexander to return in time for the NLDS should the Giants manage to sneak into a postseason spot. Replacing Alexander on the club’s active roster is outfielder Heliot Ramos, who has slashed .208/.269/.354 in 20 games with the Giants this year.

After posting a dominant 1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 innings of work during his first season in San Francisco last year, the 33-year-old lefty returned to less impressive results, with a 4.66 ERA in 48 1/3 innings this year. That being said, his 3.26 FIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA, indicating that there may be some bad luck baked into his below average (92 ERA+) run prevention numbers. Overall, Alexander sports a 3.70 ERA and 3.16 FIP in 72 career appearances with the Giants. A free agent at the end of the season, Alexander figures to be one of the more reliable left-handed relief options on the open market this offseason.

Alexander isn’t the only Giants arm dealing with injury woes of late, however, as right-hander Jakob Junis exited tonight’s game due to what the club has described as neck tightness, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado. After an uneven first season in San Francisco last year during which he posted a 4.42 ERA with a 3.65 FIP over 112 innings of work, Junis has settled into a versatile relief role where he mixes between long relief and single-inning appearances. In this role, he’s posted a 3.93 ERA across 84 2/3 innings with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.8%. Like Alexander, Junis figures to hit the open market this offseason, and could receive interest as both a starter and a reliever.

As discussed by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, injury situations aren’t the only issues plaguing the Giants this late in the season. Catcher Patrick Bailey, who has caught more games this season than ever before in his career, told Slusser that at this point in the season that he is “experiencing more fatigue than [he’s] ever felt before,” a situation that’s surely factoring into the 24-year-old rookie’s downturn in performance in recent weeks. Dating back to the middle of August, Bailey has slashed a meager .174/.245/.244 with a 34% strikeout rate in his last 94 trips to the plate. Slusser adds that Bailey’s typically strong defense has also taken a hit recently, as he’s committed three errors and allowed four passed balls in the month of September.

Looking ahead to 2024, the backup catcher position figures to be something of a question mark for the Giants, with Bailey having caught 82% of the club’s games since being called up back in May. Former top prospect Joey Bart and Rule 5 draft pick Blake Sabol both figure to be internal options available to San Francisco, though it would hardly be a surprise to see the club pursue a more established back-up option like Victor Caratini or Tom Murphy in free agency to help ease Bailey into the workload of a wire-to-wire big league season.

Kyle Hendricks’s Return To Form

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

When thinking about bounceback seasons on the 2023 Chicago Cubs, you’d be forgiven for seeing the excellent season Cody Bellinger is putting together giving it your full attention. After all, the former NL MVP was one of the worst regulars in baseball over the past two seasons and has bounced back to not only be an above-average regular but the best hitter set to hit the free agent market this side of Shohei Ohtani. If you look a little further down the club’s WAR leaderboard, however, you’ll find there’s another player on the team who received award voting recognition early in his career for whom things seemingly started to come apart at the seams over the past two seasons, only for him to rebound in a big way in 2023 with a unexpectedly strong season. That player is right-handed veteran Kyle Hendricks.

The lone remaining player of Chicago’s 2016 World Series core, Hendricks was once one of the best starters in the majors in terms of sheer run prevention. Between the years of 2016 and 2020, only five pitchers with at least 500 innings of work posted a lower ERA than Hendricks: Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber. Unlike the five multi-time Cy Young winners ahead of him, Hendricks has never been looked at as on the shortlist of the best pitchers in the league. While Hendricks finished third in Cy Young award voting in 2016 behind Scherzer and teammate Jon Lester, he’s only received votes one other time in his career and has never made an All Star game.

The main culprit for that is his lack of strikeouts. Even during his 2016-20 peak he ranked among the league’s bottom 20 hurlers in terms of strikeout rate, and his fastball hasn’t average 90 mph since his sophomore season as a big league regular back in 2016. Hendricks made up for that during his peak years with pinpoint control (5.3% walk rate), a strong 46.6% groundball rate, and a penchant for suppressing the long ball (11.5% HR/FB). Still, those positive traits couldn’t completely outweigh his lack of strikeouts and left him with a 3.60 FIP that, while strong, was more in the realm of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell than Kershaw and deGrom.

Unfortunately for Hendricks, his dominance in terms of run prevention wouldn’t last. The 2021 and 2022 seasons proved to be brutal ones for Hendricks, as he not only was a below average starting pitcher for the first time in his career but dealt with a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder during 2022 that left him shut down partway through the year. Across his 265 1/3 innings of work those two seasons, the results were nothing short of ugly: his 4.78 ERA with a 4.87 FIP in that time were 16% and 18% worse than the league average, respectively. Meanwhile, his peripheral numbers declined across the board his strikeout rate dipped from the 21.1% of his peak years to just 17.3%, his walk rate climbed to 6%, his groundball rate dropped to 41%, and he began to allow home runs on 14.8% of his fly balls.

Heading into the 2023 season, it was fair to wonder if the tightrope act of Hendricks’s early career, where he managed to get elite results despite a fastball that would’ve been slower than average 20 years ago thanks to excellent command and quality of contact numbers, was over. After all, he was pairing a bottom ten strikeout rate in the majors with a 8.8% barrel rate that was lower than only 26 other players with at least 200 innings of work between those years, figures that put him in the same conversation as Zach Plesac and Dallas Keuchel. Chicago’s $14.5MM decision on Hendricks’s $16MM club option for 2024 figured to be declined without as much as a second thought.

Ever since making his season debut in May, however, Hendricks appears to have climbed right back up on the tightrope. The now 33-year-old righty has posted a 3.66 ERA that’s 24% better than league average with a 3.80 FIP across 23 starts (132 2/3 innings of work) this season. Those top level numbers put him in the same conversation as quality mid-rotation arms like Charlie Morton, Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez. A look at his peripheral numbers mostly backs up the veteran’s return to form, as well: his 4.3% walk rate this season is the best of his career in a 162-game season, and his 45.2% groundball rate is a top-25 figure in the majors that appears in the same conversation as players like Ohtani and Corbin Burnes.

That said, there are still some potential red flags. Most obviously, Hendricks is striking out less batters than ever before this year, even by his own standards. His strikeout rate is ninth-worst among pitchers with at least 130 innings this year, and no other pitcher in the bottom ten is above average by both ERA- and FIP-. Meanwhile, his 8.7% HR/FB rate is the lowest of his career, indicating that some regression should be expected in that regard. His barrel rate has dropped from the 8.8% figure he posted the last two years, which is a positive sign, but 6.4% figure is still a far cry from the 4.3% he posted in his prime.

Between Hendricks’s quality mid-rotation production in 2023, his track record as something of a unicorn in the modern game, and these potential red flags when digging into his profile, that aforementioned $14.5MM decision the Cubs face on his 2024 option figures to be one of the more interesting decisions a club will be faced with this offseason. Should his option be declined, the veteran righty figures to add another intriguing arm to what’s already an unusually deep free agent class when it comes to starting pitching. Regardless of what the future holds for Hendricks, though, his rebound has been one of the biggest surprises for a Cubs team that has surpassed expectations across the board this season.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Taylor

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 7:41pm CDT

Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that outfielder Harrison Bader won’t return to the field this year, and that the odds of right-hander Tejay Antone making it back before 2024 are “remote.” While both players were already known to be out for the remainder of the regular season due to their recent placements on the injured list, Bell’s comments pour cold water on hopes of either player making an impact for Cincinnati this postseason in the event the Reds are able to claim one of the NL Wild Card spots. Pending the end of tonight’s game against Pittsburgh, the Reds currently sit two games behind the Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot. The club is also one game back of the Marlins, the top NL club currently outside the postseason picture.

Antone made just five appearances out of the bullpen for the Reds this year due to injuries, but was dominant in that limited action with a 1.59 ERA and a 33.3% strikeout rate in 5 2/3 innings of work. Given the right-hander’s strong track record in Cincinnati when healthy, he figures to feature prominently in the club’s plans next year even in the event he doesn’t return this season.

The same can’t be said for Bader, a pending free agent who joined the Reds after being placed on waivers by the Yankees at the end of August. Bader had struggled with the bat in New York, slashing just .240/.278/.365 in 84 games with the club, but more than made up for it with his superlative glovework in center field. Unfortunately, his time in Cincinnati saw his work with the bat deteriorate even more as he posted a brutal .161/.235/.194 slash line in 14 games that was good for a wRC+ of just 15. That said, between his strong defense in center field and a much more promising career wRC+ of 92, Bader figures to hit free agency after the season with a chance to land a healthy contract.

Today’s injury news for the Reds isn’t all bad, however. Rookie infielder Matt McLain, who went on the injured list with an oblique strain nearly a month ago, is on the verge of returning per MLB.com. As discussed by Bell, McLain is headed for a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level and figures to play two games there before returning to the major league club, with Tuesday’s game against the Guardians standing as the club’s current target for McLain’s return. Assuming he’s fully healthy, McLain should bolster the club’s lineup in a big way given his .290/.357/.507 slash line in 403 trips to the plate this year.

More from the NL Central…

Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman made his first start since July this afternoon, taking the ball against the Rockies at Wrigley Field. Stroman was activated from the injured list earlier this month to join the club’s bullpen and did well in that role, striking out four while allowing only an unearned run on two hits and a walk in three innings of work. Stroman’s return to the rotation left right-hander Javier Assad as the odd man out in the club’s starting plans. That being said, with Stroman not yet fully built up to a starter’s workload, Assad took the ball in relief of the veteran for four scoreless innings today, lowering the youngster’s ERA to 2.88 on the season. With Stroman back in the rotation, Assad figures to be a valuable multi-inning weapon for the Cubs out of the bullpen down the stretch. Chicago has plenty of high leverage opportunities available with Adbert Alzolay, Michael Fulmer, and Brad Boxberger all currently on the injured list.
Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor hasn’t played since Wednesday and was once again held out of the lineup today, with manager Craig Counsell indicating to MLB.com that the 29-year-old was dealing with some hamstring tightness. The club has decided to act cautiously rather than risk losing Taylor to an injury that could keep him out of the postseason, though Counsell added that he hopes Taylor will be able to return to the lineup for tomorrow’s game against the Marlins. Taylor was ice cold to start the year, resulting in a lackluster season slash line of just .233/.270/.408 in 210 plate appearances, but he’s been one of Milwaukee’s strongest offensive contributors since the start of August with a scorching hot .291/.341/.581 slash line including 11 doubles, a triple, and seven homers in 126 trips to the plate. Blake Perkins has gotten additional reps in the outfield in recent days with Taylor temporarily shelved.

AL Central Notes: Keller, Paddack, Allen

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 6:21pm CDT

Royals right-hander Brad Keller spent most of the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, and though he was activated briefly early this month, he quickly found himself back on the shelf due to what the club described as “symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.” His placement back on the IL had already ended his 2023 season, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star) that Keller has indeed been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Quatraro added that Keller has not yet decided a course of action regarding his injury and figures to decide in the coming days about his path forward.

It’s brutal news for Keller, who is poised to depart the Royals for free agency once the 2023 season comes to a close. Keller looked to be a quality mid-rotation starter in the early seasons of his career, posting a 3.50 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 360 1/3 innings of work between 2018 and 2020. Unfortunately, he’s suffered a significant downturn in production since then, with a 5.14 ERA and 4.80 FIP across 314 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. In that time, Keller’s walk rate crept up to 11.5%, well above the 9.1% figure he posted in the first three seasons of his career. While Keller was striking out more batters as well, it wasn’t enough to compensate for the additional walks, to say nothing of a sustained spike in the percentage of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs in recent years. After posting an HR/FB of just 8% in the first three years of his career, that number spiked to 13% the last three seasons.

With less than two months until free agency figures to open, Keller faces a significant degree of uncertainty about the future of his career after spending his entire major league career to this point with the Royals. Surgery to correct TOS has rarely seen players return to the majors and enjoy success, with Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer among the arms who have seen their careers impacted by the procedure in recent years. One example of a player who has returned effectively is Arizona right-hander Merrill Kelly, who stands as a prime example of the fact that not all types of TOS have the same long-term outlook.

More from around the AL Central…

The Twins could welcome right-hander Chris Paddack back to the major league roster as soon as tomorrow, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Paddack, 27, has been on the IL since last spring after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but has long been been considered a possible late-season option for Minnesota’s pitching staff. It seems that possibility is on the verge of coming to fruition, with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that Paddack is expected to contribute as a reliever out of the bullpen rather than a member of the rotation upon being activated. Paddack looked impressive in his most recent rehab outing at Triple-A, where the righty struck out five on two hits and a walk across three scoreless innings of work.
The Guardians have placed left-hander Logan Allen on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation, per MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. The move brings an end to Allen’s rookie season. It was an impressive start to the young southpaw’s career, as he posted a solid 3.81 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 4.20 FIP across 24 starts with the Guardians this year. Allen and fellow rookies Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are the latest young arms to slide into the club’s rotation from their farm system, and figure to join more established arms like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie as quality rotation options as Cleveland looks ahead to the 2024 campaign.

AL West Notes: Astros, Anderson, Rendon, Murphy

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 5:19pm CDT

The Astros have been without outfielder Michael Brantley for most of the past week due to soreness, which according to manager Dusty Baker (as relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) is “mostly” in his surgically repaired shoulder. That’s troublesome news for Houston, as the veteran outfielder has played in just 12 games since he was shut down for shoulder surgery last summer. That Brantley’s been forced off the field by his ailing shoulder once again raises questions as the Astros gear up to defend their title as the reigning World Series champions this fall, though it’s at least somewhat encouraging that the club hasn’t yet elected to place him on the injured list.

Brantley’s absence would normally be expected to allow Yordan Alvarez to move into left field, freeing up the DH spot for a bat like rookie catcher Yainer Diaz. Things aren’t quite that simple, however, as Alvarez is dealing with injury issues of his own. The slugger told reporters, including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, recently that he hasn’t been able to play the field recently after “feeling something” in his elbow earlier in the month while swinging the bat. The incident has left the Astros acting cautiously with their superstar slugger, who has slashed .293/.410/.578 in 106 games with the club this year. While Rome notes that Alvarez was taking fly balls and throwing in the outfield before today’s game, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle relayed yesterday that Baker is still trying to avoid using Alvarez in the outfield during games.

With Brantley unavailable and Alvarez seemingly restricted to DH, the club figures to rely on the services of Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon in the outfield for the time being. With Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field on an everyday bases and both Meyers and Dubon grading out as solid center fielders defensively, the unfortunate injury situation with Brantley and Alvarez has nonetheless allowed the Astros to improve their outfield defense by moving Chas McCormick into left field rather than utilizing him in center.

More from the AL West…

Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson saw his season come to an end today, as the club placed him on the 15-day IL with left knee soreness (as noted by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) following today’s game against the Twins. Anderson was poised to start tomorrow’s game for Anaheim, though no replacement starter has been announced to this point. Anderson’s first year with the Angels was a difficult one, as the lefty posted a 5.43 ERA and 4.93 FIP in 141 innings of work. Anderson signed a three-year, $39MM deal with the club early last offseason after posting a fantastic season in 2022 with the Dodgers.
Sticking with the Angels, Bollinger also relays that third baseman Anthony Rendon isn’t expected to return from the injured list this season, according to club manager Phil Nevin. 2023 will go down as yet another injury-marred campaign for the veteran third baseman, who has been on the shelf since early July with a shin injury and has played just 148 games since the start of the 2021 campaign. Rendon, who slashed .236/.361/.318 with a wRC+ of 95 in 183 trips to the plate this year, has three years and roughly $116MM left on his contract with the club headed into 2024.
The Mariners have been without catcher Tom Murphy for over a month due to a thumb fracture and was shut down from baseball activity earlier in September due to the issue. While that diagnosis put the remainder of his 2023 in doubt, it’s possible that there’s reason for optimism regarding Murphy’s ability to return this year, at least in the event that Seattle makes it to the postseason. MLB.com notes that Murphy was poised to undergo an MRI yesterday to determine whether he could resume baseball activities, though no update has been provided regarding the catcher’s status at this point. Murphy’s hit exceptionally well in a back-up role this year behind Cal Raleigh, with a .290/.335/.538 slash line in 159 trips to the plate this year. The club has recently been relying on Luis Torrens as their second catcher in Murphy’s absence.

Marlins Place Eury Perez On 15-Day Injured List, Select Jeff Lindgren

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 3:48pm CDT

The Marlins have selected the contract of right-hander Jeff Lindgren, per a club announcement. In a corresponding move, right-hander Eury Perez has been placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 21) with left SI joint inflammation. The move to the IL brings an end to Perez’s regular season, at the very least. He’ll also be unavailable for the Wild Card series of a potential playoff run, though it’s not currently clear if he could return later in the postseason, should Miami make it that far.

Perez, 20, made his MLB debut for the Marlins earlier this year. He was considered one of the sport’s top pitching prospects at the time and made an immediate impression upon reaching the majors with a 1.34 ERA and 3.03 FIP in addition to a 29.2% strikeout rate across his first nine starts. Miami made the decision to option Perez to the minors in early July with the hope of managing his innings total in 2023 while also keeping him available for the stretch run and a potential postseason push.

Things didn’t go according to plan, however. In addition to Perez landing on the injured list for the final week of the season, the rookie’s results have been far less impressive since returning to the majors in early August. In his last 38 innings (eight starts), he’s posted just a 4.26 ERA and 4.71 FIP. That late-season downturn in performance culminated in a three-inning outing against the Mets this past Wednesday where Perez allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits and three walks while stirking out just two. Overall, Perez will finish his first regular season as a big leaguer with a 3.15 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 91 1/3 innings of work.

The news comes on the heels of today’s announcement that ace right-hander Sandy Alcantara won’t pitch again this year. The news combines for a devastating pair of blows to the Marlins rotation as they’re in the midst of a late-season playoff. The club sat just one game back of the Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot entering play today, but will now have to lean on a rotation group headlined by left-handers Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett. With veteran Johnny Cueto long since demoted to relief work, righty Edward Cabrera and potential depth options like David Smeltzer and Ryan Weathers will have to help carry the load in the absence of Perez and Alcantara going forward.

Lindgren is another such option. He’s spent the season riding the waiver wire with Miami, as this is the fourth time the Marlins have selected his contract this season. The right-hander’s stints with the big league club have been brief, but he’s posted a 5.14 ERA that’s only slightly below league average by measure of ERA+ (91) with a 4.69 FIP in his seven innings of work with the club. With a 4.88 ERA in a swing role at the Triple-A level this season, Lindgren could be a valuable source of innings for a rapidly thinning Marlins pitching staff over the season’s final stretch.

Red Sox Notes: Imanaga, Breslow, Turner, Jansen, Rafaela

By Mark Polishuk | September 23, 2023 at 2:25pm CDT

NPB standout Shota Imanaga will be posted for Major League teams this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Red Sox have “heavily scouted” the Japanese left-hander. Imanaga has a 3.17 ERA over eight seasons and 990 2/3 innings with the Yokohama DeNa Baystars, though North American fans might know him best from his work with Japan’s national team in this year’s World Baseball Classic. Imanaga had a 3.00 ERA over six innings and three appearances, and was the starting pitcher (earning the win) in Japan’s gold-medal game victory over the United States.

MLB Trade Rumors readers are also familiar with Imanaga from our NPB Players To Watch series, as Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly written about the southpaw as Imanaga looks to be on the verge of heading to the majors. Imanaga will draw plenty of attention from pitching-needy teams, and the Sox certainly figure to make rotation upgrades a major part of their offseason plan under their next head of baseball operations. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top name available among NPB pitchers this winter, but with at least ten MLB clubs (including the Red Sox) interested in Yamamoto’s services, it is possible Imanaga might be something of a solid backup plan for teams that either can’t land Yamamoto or can’t afford his big price tag.

Sandy Alcantara Shut Down For Rest Of 2023 Season

By Anthony Franco | September 23, 2023 at 1:47pm CDT

TODAY: Unsurprisingly, Alcantara confirmed today that he won’t pitch again in 2023. “That’s the thing that broke my heart. I won’t be able to go out there with my teammates and compete….Hopefully we make it to the playoffs without me. [I’ve] just gotta be here and support them,” Alcantara told Jordan McPherson and Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald.

The Cy Young Award winner said that he and his agent haven’t yet met with Marlins management to discuss what’s next, whether that’s more rehab or whether or not Alcantara might require some kind of surgery.

SEPTEMBER 22: Defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has been on the injured list since September 6. He was diagnosed with a sprain in the UCL of his throwing elbow last week but had still been attempting to make it back for the team’s playoff push.

Alcantara made a rehab outing with Triple-A Jacksonville last night. He got through four scoreless innings but informed the team after the game that he’d experienced renewed forearm tightness (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). He’ll likely be pulled off his rehab stint and rejoin the team this weekend while remaining on the IL.

The club hasn’t announced a timetable or the next steps in Alcantara’s recovery. They’ll surely proceed with caution with the star right-hander, which raises the question of whether they could decide to shut him down for the season. While Alcantara and the team clearly hoped he’d be able to pitch through the injury, the diagnosis of a UCL sprain inherently means there’s some degree of stretching or tearing in that ligament.

Alcantara hasn’t replicated last year’s success, when he threw an MLB-high 228 2/3 innings with a sterling 2.28 ERA. He has still been an effective rotation member for the Fish, allowing 4.14 earned runs per nine across 184 2/3 frames. Alcantara owns a 3.20 ERA since the All-Star Break while averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start.

Miami has been without Trevor Rogers for the majority of the season. They’re relying on Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, highly-touted rookie Eury Pérez and Edward Cabrera in the rotation. They turned to a bullpen game for the final spot in today’s series opener with the Brewers. That hasn’t worked, with Steven Okert and Bryan Hoeing tagged for a combined 12 runs before getting out of the second inning.

A loss tonight will drop the Fish a game behind the Cubs for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds could jump a half-game ahead of Miami if they beat the Pirates. Miami will turn to Luzardo and Cabrera for the final two games against the Brew Crew. They’re off on Monday before finishing their season with road games in six consecutive days against the Mets and Pirates.

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