Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Archives for September 2023
Miguel Castro Has Reached Required Number Of Appearances For 2024 Option To Vest
Diamondbacks righty Miguel Castro signed a one-year deal that guaranteed him $3.25MM but also came with various incentives and a vesting option for the 2024 season. That $5MM salary was contingent on Castro reaching 60 appearances and passing an end-of-season physical, the former of which Castro quietly checked off late last month. The right-hander is now up to 65 appearances on the year, meaning that so long as he’s healthy for that end-of-year physical, he’ll be back in the fold for the D-backs next year at that $5MM price point. He’s also maxed out his appearance-based incentives for the 2023 season, adding an additional $900K to this year’s salary.
Already in his ninth Major League season despite not yet celebrating his 29th birthday, Castro was a solid member of the Arizona bullpen for the bulk of the year before a recent pair of nightmare outings sent his ERA north of 5.00. From Opening Day through Aug. 14, Castro logged a 3.86 ERA — albeit with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates (20.9%, 10.2%, 41%, respectively). Castro was rocked for four earned runs in each of his next two appearances and tagged for three runs less than two weeks later; more than one-third of the runs he’s yielded this season came in a span of just 10 days.
It’s an awful stretch, but Castro’s season otherwise more or less lines up with the broader track record he put together from 2017-22: 350 innings, 3.93 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 49.6% ground-ball rate. Both his ground-ball rate and average sinker velocity are down this season — he’s still averaging a hearty 96.8 mph on that two-seamer — but Castro is also walking batters at his lowest clip of any full big league season (9.8%).
Assuming Castro indeed passes his physical, he’ll return to a D-backs relief corps that’ll be fronted by deadline pickup Paul Sewald. Righty Kevin Ginkel and lefty Kyle Nelson have both cemented their places in the Arizona ’pen as well, and veteran Scott McGough is slated to return for the second season of his two-year deal. (Like Castro, McGough got out to a strong start but had his ERA blown up by a rough patch this summer.) Newcomer Ryan Thompson will also be looking to earn a role for the ’24 bullpen over the final few weeks of the current season.
If the D-backs want to go outside the organization to add to that group, there ought to be ample funds available to do so. Even after accounting for Castro’s $5MM salary next year, Arizona has just shy of $53MM on the books, per Roster Resource. That doesn’t include arbitration raises to notable names like Christian Walker, Zac Gallen, Sewald and Ginkel. Still, that bunch of raises will likely leave the Diamondbacks south of $90MM in guarantees, which is well shy of both this year’s $123MM payroll and their franchise-record $132MM payroll from the 2018 season.
As such, general manager Mike Hazen and his staff should have some money to work with this offseason — particularly with the organization’s regrettable commitment to Madison Bumgarner set to expire after the 2024 campaign. The D-backs owe Bumgarner $14MM for the 2024 season but are off the hook beginning in 2025. They have just $21MM on the books in 2025: a $5MM salary for Corbin Carroll and a $16MM salary for Ketel Marte.
Cardinals Designate Taylor Motter For Assignment
9:51am: The Cardinals have now formally announced the moves, specifying that Romero is hitting the injured list due to patellar tendinitis in his left knee.
9:25am: The Cardinals have designated infielder Taylor Motter for assignment, clearing an active roster spot for the recall of José Fermín from Triple-A Memphis. St. Louis also reinstated Matthew Liberatore from the 15-day injured list while placing JoJo Romero on the 15-day IL, retroactive to September 2. The team has yet to formally announce the moves via press release, but each is reflected on their transaction log at MLB.com. The Cards’ 40-man count drops to 39.
Motter has had three separate stints on the St. Louis roster. The 33-year-old has played in 29 games, his biggest MLB workload since 2017. Motter hasn’t produced much offensively, hitting .171/.232/.211 through 82 trips to the plate. As has been the case throughout his career, the bigger appeal has been in his defensive flexibility. Motter has gotten multiple starts at each of second base, third base and shortstop.
The Cards have waived him twice before. He’s gone unclaimed both times. If that’s the case yet again, he’d have the right to elect free agency. Motter would qualify for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason if he’s not on St. Louis’ major league roster in either case, so he could look to explore other opportunities a few weeks early.
Liberatore was only sidelined for a couple weeks by back tightness. The former first-round pick and top prospect is getting consistent rotation run as the Cards evaluate potential depth options for next year’s starting staff. Despite a slight velocity uptick and decent numbers in Triple-A, Liberatore has gotten hit hard in 50 MLB innings this season. He’s allowing 6.12 earned runs per nine with a well below-average 15.1% strikeout rate.
Romero has pitched his way into key innings for a St. Louis bullpen that subtracted a couple veterans at the deadline. While the 26-year-old has a solid but unspectacular 3.68 ERA over 36 2/3 frames, that run prevention mark belies excellent underlying numbers. Romero has fanned 28.6% of batters faced while generating grounders on nearly three-fifths of batted balls he allows. In the process, he has likely staked a claim to a high-leverage role in the 2024 relief corps.
As for the open spot on the 40-man roster, it could be ticketed for Rule 5 pick Wilking Rodriguez, who has missed the entire season thus far after undergoing shoulder surgery in early May. Rodriguez was given a timetable of four to six weeks to recover from that operation, and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports that the Cards are hopeful of taking a look at him down the stretch in 2023. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list but is on a minor league rehab stint in Triple-A Memphis, where he’s pitched 1 2/3 innings with four strikeouts, no walks and just one unearned run allowed.
Even if Rodriguez is activated and spends the final few weeks of the season on the Major League roster, he won’t meet the requirements to shed his Rule 5 status. A player needs to spend at least 90 days on the active roster during his Rule 5 season to fulfill those requirements, so Rodriguez’s Rule 5 designation would carry over into the 2024 season until he reaches that mark. As it stands, he’s hardly a sure bet to remain on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason, but a strong showing in the final three to four weeks could go a long way in changing that perception.
The Opener: Ohtani, Eovaldi, MLBTR Chat
We’ve already had one morning roster move, and here are three additional things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Ohtani to undergo testing:
On the heels of the two-way superstar’s agent discussing his client’s UCL injury with reporters, Shohei Ohtani exited yesterday’s game due to oblique discomfort. Manager Phil Nevin described Ohtani as “pretty sore” (as relayed by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) and while Sam Blum of The Athletic notes that the club did some preliminary testing last night, Nevin didn’t have enough information to share much of anything else.
With Ohtani already done pitching for the year and his agent indicating that some sort of elbow surgery is inevitable for him, even a relatively mild oblique strain could potentially see Ohtani’s season come to an end with so little time on the calendar remaining and an impending surgery looming. Even if Ohtani has suited up for the final time this season, he’s a strong candidate for the AL MVP award; in 599 trips to the plate this season, he’s slashed an incredible .304/.412/.654 — all while also posting a 3.14 ERA and 31.5% strikeout rate in 132 innings while on the mound.
2. Eovaldi to return:
Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is set to take the mound in Arlington for this evening’s game against the Astros. It will be Eovaldi’s first appearance in the big leagues since he went on the injured list with a forearm strain shortly after the All-Star break. The 33-year-old veteran’s return figures to be a massive boost to the Texas rotation, which added both lefty Jordan Montgomery and veteran ace Max Scherzer in his absence. In 19 starts prior to his injury this season, Eovaldi pitched like an ace in his own right, with a 2.69 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 123 2/3 innings of work. Eovaldi’s return could indicate the end of either right-hander Dane Dunning’s or lefty Andrew Heaney’s time in the rotation, though it’s also possible the Rangers could opt for a six-man rotation down the stretch in hopes of preserving the health of their veteran arms for a hopeful postseason run. Eovaldi himself could be on a pitch count early on; he’s been throwing bullpen sessions but is returning from a roughly six-week absence without making a minor league rehab appearance.
3. MLBTR Chat:
The end of the season is fast approaching, and the league’s 30 clubs are all pushing full steam ahead into the stretch run. While some teams are already looking ahead to 2024, many are focused on the current pennant chase, with more than half the league still boasting 20% or higher playoff odds, per Fangraphs. If you’re curious how your team will hold up over the season’s final month or what their plan for the future is, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is hosting a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
Balelo: “Inevitable” That Ohtani Will Undergo Some Kind Of Elbow Procedure
Two weeks ago, the Angels announced that Shohei Ohtani was done pitching for the season after imaging revealed a tear in the UCL of his throwing elbow. Ohtani has yet to address that injury with that media, but his agent, CAA’s Nez Balelo, met with reporters this evening.
Balelo called it “inevitable” that Ohtani will need to undergo some type of procedure (relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times). Whether that’ll be a full Tommy John surgery or something less invasive (e.g. an internal brace repair) is still to be determined.
According to Balelo, the tear is in a different area than the injury that necessitated Ohtani’s October 2018 Tommy John surgery. He called it a “best case scenario” given the situation (via Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times). Balelo made clear that Ohtani plans to be in the lineup as a designated hitter next season. He stressed that “there’s not a question in (Ohtani’s) mind” he’ll eventually be able to return to pitching as well, though that timetable remains uncertain pending their decision on the specific treatment necessary (relayed by Alden González of ESPN).
Shortly after the UCL tear was discovered, Halos’ general manager Perry Minasian told reporters that Ohtani and CAA declined the team’s offer to undergo imaging after the two-way star reported finger cramping in early August. While that could be interpreted as a shot at Ohtani or his representation, Balelo said they had no issue with the Angels going public with that information (via Sam Blum of the Athletic). He confirmed that Ohtani declined imaging at the time.
Ohtani has continued hitting since the injury, raking at a .300/.500/.500 clip in 43 plate appearances. It seems he’ll continue as the DH, at least until the plan to address his elbow is finalized. The AL MVP favorite is up to an astounding .304/.412/.654 batting line and is tied with Matt Olson for the major league lead with 44 home runs.
Even with uncertainty about his short-term outlook on the mound, Ohtani stands as the clear top player in the upcoming free agent class. If he prioritizes the overall guarantee, the 29-year-old seems likely to eclipse the $360MM record which Aaron Judge established last winter. Teams will obviously closely monitor his arm health to assess the likelihood he’ll be able to recapture his top-of-the-rotation form whenever he’s healthy enough to again begin throwing.
Reds Outright Alan Busenitz
The Reds have sent reliever Alan Busenitz outright to Triple-A Louisville, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment on Friday when Cincinnati activated Tejay Antone from the injured list.
Busenitz has gotten into five games for the Reds this year. He has tossed five innings of two-run ball with three strikeouts and one unintentional walk. That brief look marked Busneitz’s first MLB action in five years. The right-hander worked to a 4.58 ERA through 57 innings for the 2017-18 Twins. Beginning in 2019, he pitched in Japan with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, posting a 2.83 ERA through 155 2/3 NPB innings.
The Reds brought Busenitz back to the affiliated ranks this season on a minor league pact. He has spent the bulk of the year in Louisville, throwing 43 2/3 innings over 40 outings. He owns a 4.53 ERA with a below-average 20.9% strikeout percentage and elevated 10.7% walk rate for the Bats.
Busenitz will try to pitch his way back into consideration for Cincinnati down the stretch. He’ll be a minor league free agent this offseason if the Reds don’t add him back onto the 40-man roster.
Chris Paddack Expected To Begin Rehab Assignment This Week
Twins right-hander Chris Paddack is in line to begin a rehab stint on Wednesday, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. He’ll go three innings in his first game action in 16 months.
Paddack underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career last May. He began working off a mound 13 months later and has gradually built his throwing program since that point. The Twins have maintained throughout that process that they hoped to get him back for the stretch run.
Last week, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune wrote that Paddack was targeting a bullpen return. That’s not surprising, as a relief role would reduce the amount of time Paddack needs to spend rehabbing as he builds toward a less demanding job. It’s also arguably more beneficial for the Twins generally. Minnesota’s rotation has been among the league’s best, while the bullpen is roughly league average.
Acquired from the Padres on Opening Day 2022, Paddack was limited to five starts during his first season with Minnesota. He has 66 MLB appearances (65 starts) over parts of four campaigns, pitching to a 4.20 ERA through 330 1/3 innings. His production dipped over his three years in San Diego, but he’d run an impressive 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his limited time with the Twins before the elbow procedure.
In other injury news, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Byron Buxton was staying with the team for treatment on his right knee (relayed by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Buxton had started a rehab stint last Wednesday as he works back from a hamstring strain. Knee concerns have bothered him all year, with the Twins keeping him at designated hitter as a result.
Buxton saw his first game action in center field during a brief rehab stint with Triple-A St. Paul before reporting the renewed knee soreness. Baldelli left open the possibility of again trying Buxton in center field once he’s ready to get back to game action.
Luis Robert Jr. Is Delivering In His First True Full Season
Luis Robert Jr. has seemed like a staple of the White Sox for a long time now, having debuted back in 2020. However, he wasn’t able to have a full, healthy season in any of his first three campaigns. He avoided the injured list in 2020, but played only 56 games that year due to the schedule being shortened by the pandemic to just 60 contests. He would then miss significant time due to a right hip flexor strain in 2021, getting into just 68 games that year. That was followed by a 98-game season last year, with IL trips due to COVID-19, blurred vision and a wrist sprain.
By the end of 2022, he had certainly been able to showcase his talent. He came into this year with 36 home runs in 222 games and a batting line of .289/.334/.474, which translated to a wRC+ of 122, indicating he was 22% better than league average in that time. He had also stolen 26 bases and been given strong grades for his center field defense. FanGraphs calculated him as being worth 6.7 wins above replacement in that time, a strong tally on a per-game basis but a limited output in terms of volume.
The 2023 campaign has finally allowed us to see what Robert can do over a full, healthy season. He dealt with some quad cramping over the weekend and is still out of the lineup today, but hasn’t been placed on the injured list at any point this year. He’s appeared in 128 games with almost a month still remaining on the schedule. His 5.3% walk rate and 28.4% strikeout rate are both worse than league average, but he’s doing significant damage when he connects, with 35 home runs and 33 doubles. His .272/.324/.560 batting line amounts to a 135 wRC+.
Defensively, Robert has continued to shine as well. He as 7 Defensive Runs Saved this year, a figure bested by just five center fielders around the league. Outs Above Average is even more enthused, with Robert’s tally of 12 in that category tops at his position, tied with Brenton Doyle of the Rockies. Robert also has 17 steals in 21 tries, helping him put up 5.2 fWAR on the year already. If it weren’t for the amazing two-way exploits of Shohei Ohtani, Robert would be in the American League Most Valuable Player conversation alongside players like Corey Seager, Julio Rodríguez and Bobby Witt.
It’s been a dismal season for the White Sox overall, with the club sporting a record of 53-84. Those poor results promoted a deadline selloff, with players like Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and others getting sent out of town for prospects. That was followed by a front office shakeup that saw both president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn relieved of their duties last month.
But the shining star of Robert has been a bright spot in the otherwise-gloomy season and perhaps a key reason why the club is hopeful of a quick return to contention. Assistant general manager Chris Getz was recently promoted to general manager, with owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying that part of the reason for staying in-house was that Getz is already familiar with the organization and will perhaps be able to deliver a quick turnaround, as opposed to an outsider who might take time before making bold moves.
Though the Sox sold some players at the deadline, they were mostly limited to those nearing free agency, holding onto more controllable pieces like Robert, Dylan Cease, Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Vaughn. There are still plenty of holes to fill on the roster and it will be a challenge to patch them all in one winter, but the club has a couple of things in its favor. One of them is the incredibly weak division, where the 66-71 Guardians are still in the playoff hunt in September this year, meaning the path back to contention isn’t quite as steep as it would be elsewhere. The second thing is that core of solid players, headlined by Robert.
Robert has two more guaranteed years on his contract, followed by a pair of $20MM club options that each come with $2MM buyouts. Those look bargains right now and will certainly be triggered, even if Robert were to drop back slightly from his MVP-caliber performance.
That puts something of a long-term target in front of the Sox, who should be able to bank on Robert being on the team through 2027 at least. Jiménez and Vaughn can be controlled through 2026 and Cease through 2025. That gives them at least two more years with that core four, three years with the Robert-Jiménez-Vaughn triumvirate and another year of Robert after that. Time will tell whether or not they can build on that in the years to come, but Robert has shown that they have a strong foundation to work with.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Astros To Seek Fourth Option Season For Forrest Whitley
It has been another injury-wrecked season for former top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley. The right-hander was diagnosed with a lat strain at the start of June, an injury that initially came with a three-plus month recovery timetable.
Over the weekend, general manager Dana Brown indicated that Whitley was unlikely to return this season (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). Brown pushed back against the notion that the 25-year-old hurler had suffered a setback but conceded he hasn’t been able to “get over the hump” in his rehab.
Initially added to the 40-man roster before the 2021 season, Whitley has yet to get to the big leagues. He has spent the past three years on optional assignment to the minors, where he’d spent an unfortunate amount of time on the injured list. Most players can be optioned to the minors in a maximum of three separate seasons. After that, the team is required to keep the player on the major league roster or take him off the 40-man entirely (thereby making him available to other teams via trade or waivers). This is Whitley’s third option year.
However, Brown said the Astros will petition MLB for a fourth option season on Whitley (via Rome). That’s available in the case of players who have exhausted their options before logging five full professional seasons — defined as 90+ days on a minor league or MLB active roster. That’s a rare occurrence but sometimes applies to players who have missed extended time with injuries and/or suspension.
Whitley has missed chunks of minor league action for both reasons. He was suspended for a violation of the minor league drug program in 2018, keeping him to eight starts that year. He battled shoulder issues the next season, then was kept out of game action by the pandemic cancelation of the minors in 2020. Whitley underwent Tommy John surgery in Spring Training 2021 and only returned towards the tail end of last season. It appears as though he won’t log any more game action this year, with his final appearance coming on May 25.
That’d seem to give the Astros a good shot of being granted an additional option, though the team won’t know for certain until the offseason. It’s not guaranteed he’ll be on the Houston roster next March regardless, as the Astros would have to keep him on the 40-man roster all offseason. Whitley’s prospect stock has plummeted thanks to the various injury concerns and performance questions during his intermittent game action. He was hit hard in 30 Triple-A innings this season, allowing a 5.70 ERA. He posted a solid 23.7% strikeout rate but walked almost 13% of opposing batters.
Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Merrill, Jobe, Chourio, Crow-Armstrong
Big Jackson Prospects is back with another edition starring members of the new Jackson Four.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517
Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.
To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454
Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.
Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA
Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.
Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471
One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499
Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.
Three More
Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.
Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.
Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
