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Archives for 2024

Chaim Bloom To Replace John Mozeliak As Cardinals President Of Baseball Operations After 2025

By Darragh McDonald | September 30, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

The Cardinals held a press conference today featuring chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., club president Bill DeWitt III, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and advisor Chaim Bloom. DeWitt Jr. announced at the press conference that Bloom would be taking over the Mozeliak’s POBO role after 2025 and has signed a five-year contract. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat was among those to relay the details (X links). That contract starts in 2026, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (X link). Mozeliak adds that he will make day-to-day decisions through 2025 but but long-term decisions will involve Bloom and ownership, per Jones (X link). Also, Michael Girsch is no longer the general manager, with his title now changed to vice president of special projects. Mozeliak says he expects player payroll to go down, per Goold (X link).

There had been a lot of smoke in recent days that significant changes were coming to the front office. A week ago, Jones reported that some notable developments would be announced at today’s press conference. Around that same time, Bob Nightengale of USA Today had reported that Bloom was likely ticketed for a larger role. A few days later, Katie Woo of The Athletic provided some more details, noting that Bloom would be overhauling the club’s player development. As part of that overhaul, the club planned to redirect resources away from the major league roster and towards improving their minor league pipeline. On the weekend, Nightengale reported further on the club, noting that the payroll reduction could lead to right-hander Sonny Gray winding up on the trading block. Meanwhile, a report from Goold aligned with Woo’s info, noting that the club planned to take a long-term focus on their player development. Woo herself added another report which noted that the club planned to move on from long-time first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

Today’s announcements all line up with that reporting, though also take it a step further. Though no one is using words like “rebuild” or “retool” or anything along those lines, it seems there is a general understanding that the club will be placing less of a focus on results in the immediate present with more of an eye on long-term and/or sustainable roster construction.

For most of this century, the Cardinals have had a strong track record in terms of finding and developing young talent. That allowed them to generally post strong on-field results despite never being one of the top spenders in the league. From the year 2000 to the present, they have only missed the playoffs nine times and only finished with a losing record twice.

That cutting edge has seemingly gone a bit dull in most recent years, however. From 2000 to 2015, they only once missed the playoffs twice in a row, which was in 2007 and 2008. But that was sandwiched in between two World Series titles in 2006 and 2011. From 2016 to 2024, the club has missed the playoffs five times. Of their four postseason appearances from 2019 to 2022, three of them ended with losses in the Wild Card round. While the club rebounded somewhat from a losing season in 2023, getting over .500 in 2024, they did so with a good chunk of the roster consisting of pricey veterans in their mid-30s. That includes Goldschmidt, Gray, Nolan Arenado, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas.

Per the recent reporting leading up to today’s conference, it seems the decision makers have come to the conclusion that they have been hampered by redirecting their focus to the major league roster, which has hurt the club’s player development pipeline. Recent years have seen players like Randy Arozarena, Adolis García, Zac Gallen and others thriving after departing the organization. Meanwhile, some of the club’s young prospects like Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and others have struggled to live up to expectations.

Every organization will have some of those misses, but it seems the club realizes that they need to change their hit rate in order to find success. As a mid-market club that doesn’t generally sign top free agents, good player development is fairly essential for running out winning ball clubs.

Bloom will be entrusted with making those changes, though he won’t be given carte blanche right away. As detailed by Mozeliak up top, it seems he will handle the basic running of the club for the next year as Bloom focuses on things under the hood. That presumably will involve tackling things away from the majors, from the minor league facilities, coaches, scouting departments and things of that nature. After a year of making changes in those capacities, he will eventually take over the baseball decisions in a more complete capacity.

During his tenure as the chief baseball officer for the Red Sox, Bloom had some hits and misses but the are good reasons why the Cardinals have picked him for this role. Bloom made some odds choices in Boston, such as selling at the 2022 deadline but staying narrowly above the competitive balance tax. The signings of Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida haven’t really worked out so far.

But a lot of Boston’s future is made up of players acquired during Bloom’s time, either through the draft, international free agency or trades. Though the 2022 deadline was odd at the time, getting Enmanuel Valdéz and Wilyer Abreu for a few months of Christian Vázquez now looks like a big win. Plucking Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in the in the 2020 Rule 5 draft was a nice pull. Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Miguel Bleis and Kristian Campbell are all on top 100 prospect lists and were acquired during Bloom’s time.

As he ramps up to take over, Mozeliak will be preparing to wind things down. Though the recent results have stirred up the anger of many fans in the St. Louis area, Mozeliak is connected to much of the clubs’ aforementioned success earlier this century. He joined the club’s scouting department in 1995, just a few years before they kicked off that strong run of success. He worked his way up to eventually take over the general manager role going into the 2008 season.

The club has largely been a mainstay of the postseason in that time, including winning the World Series in 2011. There has been an apparent tapering off of the club’s momentum in recent years, though even before that, it seemed like Mozeliak was leaning towards transitioning away from his current role. Back in February of 2023, before the club’s disappointing results in the two most recent campaigns, Mozeliak gave some hints that he was heading out the door eventually.

“I know there is going to be some change coming over the next few years,” he said at that time. “We certainly want to give individuals within the organization opportunities to grow and expand some of their roles, and over the course of the next year or so we’ll work through that.”

At that point, it seemed fair to conclude that he was talking about Girsch, who had been in the organization since 2006. He had been promoted to general manager in 2017, working as Mozeliak’s top lieutenant since then. Girsch had been signed to a multi-year extension in October 2022, just a few months prior to Mozeliak’s comments.

But Bloom was fired by the Red Sox in September of 2023 and then landed an advisory role with the Cards in January of 2024. It seems that Bloom has surpassed Girsch at some point, either based on his track record with Boston or something he has shown them since taking on that advisory role.

Girsch has now been given a new title, which is perhaps a favor to him in a sense. With Bloom now blocking his path to a promotion with the Cards, this sends a signal to other clubs. If any front office positions open up elsewhere and another team is interested in Girsch, he will now seem more available than he did a few weeks ago. Clubs generally allow their personnel to interview with other clubs if a promotion is involved, so the Cards could be open to Girsch pursuing a role somewhere else if the opportunity arises. Per Woo on X, the club doesn’t plan to hire another GM in the short term, likely waiting until Bloom takes over next year. Woo also relays in a column at The Athletic that Girsch is under contract for one more year.

As the weeks and months roll along, more specifics should emerge about the organization and their plans. But from the news today and in recent weeks, it’s clear that the main idea is change, a new direction that should have significant ramifications for years to come.

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Newsstand St. Louis Cardinals Chaim Bloom John Mozeliak Mike Girsch

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Pirates Parting Ways With Hitting Coach Andy Haines

By Anthony Franco | September 30, 2024 at 10:51pm CDT

The Pirates are parting ways with hitting coach Andy Haines and bullpen coach Justin Meccage, report Andrew Destin and Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It’s not clear whether there’ll be other changes to Derek Shelton’s staff.

Pittsburgh hired Haines to replace Rick Eckstein over the 2021-22 offseason. The 47-year-old had spent the previous three seasons as hitting coach in Milwaukee and logged one year as an assistant with the Cubs. The Bucs ranked 26th in scoring over the past three seasons. They were 24th with 665 runs this year, while their .234/.301/.371 batting line placed them in the bottom third of MLB in all three slash stats.

As is the case with any coach, it’s difficult to judge their work based on the results alone. PNC Park isn’t an easy venue for hitters and the Bucs are light on proven offensive contributors beyond Bryan Reynolds and an aging Andrew McCutchen. Pittsburgh simply hasn’t gotten enough development from their young hitters in recent seasons, though. By measure of wRC+, only four of the 13 Pirates hitters with at least 200 plate appearances had above-average offensive performances. Reynolds and McCutchen were joined in that regard by Joey Bart and Oneil Cruz.

Bart, a reclamation flier from the Giants, dramatically cut his strikeouts and hit .265/.337/.462 in 80 games. The toolsy Cruz had his first 20-20 season, though he still struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. While this was a successful year for Bart and Cruz, the Pirates had a handful of disappointments.

Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski were expected to be key contributors but had terrible seasons. Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo didn’t make much of an impact. Former first overall pick Henry Davis has hit .191/.283/.307 in 99 games over the past two seasons. Buy-low free agent pickups of Rowdy Tellez and Michael A. Taylor didn’t pan out, nor did bringing in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Bryan De La Cruz provide a jolt at the deadline. That’s certainly not all on the hitting coach, yet there’s no question the offense has held the Pirates back from breaking out of a rebuild that’ll be entering year six under Shelton and GM Ben Cherington.

Pittsburgh added Meccage to the staff in 2018 as an assistant pitching coach. He moved to bullpen coach going into 2020 and has held the position for five seasons. Pittsburgh’s bullpen had the fourth-highest ERA in the majors this season, allowing 4.49 earned runs per nine. They ranked 20th in strikeout percentage (22.9%) while posting the seventh-worst walk rate (10%).

Pittsburgh coaxed a breakout year from waiver claim Dennis Santana and got decent production out of Carmen Mlodzinski, Colin Holderman, Luis Ortiz and $10.5MM free agent pickup Aroldis Chapman. None of those players are lockdown late-game weapons, though. David Bednar was expected to anchor the group out of the ninth inning. He had a very poor season, struggling to a 5.77 ERA with a dip in strikeouts and a spike in home runs to lose the closing job. Bednar had broken out as one of the game’s best relievers under Meccage’s tutelage between 2021-23.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Andy Haines

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By Darragh McDonald | September 30, 2024 at 10:14pm CDT

The Rockies just wrapped up their sixth straight losing season and second straight with over 100 losses. There are some internal reasons for optimism but they have a difficult path out of the National League West basement.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Colorado Rockies Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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Brewers, Vinny Nittoli Agree To Minor League Deal For 2025

By Anthony Franco | September 30, 2024 at 9:45pm CDT

The Brewers have agreed to terms with reliever Vinny Nittoli on a minor league contract for next season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). He’ll get an invitation to big league Spring Training.

Nittoli, 34 in November, had an eventful 2024 campaign. While he only made nine appearances at the major league level, he was a part of four organizations. He began the season with the A’s on a minor league deal. They selected his contract and he pitched seven times, allowing two runs through eight innings. Nittoli cleared waivers after being designated for assignment and successively signed with the Cubs and Orioles. He didn’t pitch in the majors for Chicago and made two appearances with Baltimore, tossing four scoreless frames. He finished his season on a minor league deal with the Mets. He opted out of his deal with New York at the end of August and has been a free agent for a month.

The Xavier product has pitched in the majors in four consecutive seasons. This year’s 12 innings are a personal high. Nittoli has tossed 18 2/3 frames overall, allowing five runs. He has a 4.80 earned run average over parts of five years in Triple-A. Nittoli fared better at that level this season, working to a 3.60 ERA while punching out more than a third of his opponents across 30 innings.

Milwaukee has shown a knack for getting good work out of low-cost bullpen pickups. Nittoli’s big swing-and-miss numbers made him an early target for the Brew Crew, who add to next spring’s bullpen competition even as they prepare for their upcoming Wild Card series against New York.

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Milwaukee Brewers Transactions Vinny Nittoli

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Mets Select Joey Lucchesi

By Darragh McDonald | September 30, 2024 at 4:35pm CDT

The Mets selected left-hander Joey Lucchesi between games of today’s double-header. He is the starter for the second game of the twin bill against Atlanta with left-hander Alex Young optioned in a corresponding active roster move. Tim Britton of The Athletic was among those to relay the news on X. The Mets transferred right-hander Christian Scott to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot, per Mike Puma of The New York Post on X.

The Mets and Atlanta came into today’s double-header effectively in a three-way tie with the Diamondbacks. Each of the two clubs playing today only needed to win one game in order to clinch a playoff spot. The Mets won a thriller in the first game, emerging victorious 8-7. They had planned to start Luis Severino in the second game if they still needed to win but will instead hold him back for the Wild Card round tomorrow.

Lucchesi, 31, will get the ball instead. The lefty has been with the Mets since January of 2021, coming over from the Padres in the three-team mega trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego, David Bednar to Pittsburgh and more. The southpaw required Tommy John surgery that summer, which resulted in him missing most of 2022. He has largely been used as optionable depth since then.

This year, his big league results prior to today consisted of just one spot start. He tossed 4 1/3 innings against the Phillies on May 15, allowing five earned runs. He was optioned back to the minors after that outing and later designated for assignment when the Mets acquired Phil Maton in July.

Lucchesi cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse. As a player with more than three years of service time, he could have rejected that outright assignment in favor of free agency. However, since he has less than five years of service, heading to the open market would have involved walking away from what remained of his $1.65MM salary.

Naturally, he accepted that outright assignment and gets his roster spot back today. The Mets likely plan on just using Lucchesi for this one outing, as they have Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, David Peterson and Tylor Megill as starting options for the postseason.

If Lucchesi survives on the 40-man all winter, he could be retained for 2025 via arbitration. However, he will be out of options next year and will therefore have less appeal to the club as a depth option, which should make him a candidate to be bumped from the roster at some point. He has a 4.70 earned run average in 115 Triple-A innings this year.

As for Scott, he underwent a Tommy John and internal brace hybrid procedure recently, so he will miss the remainder of this year and likely all of 2025 as well. He will spend most of that time on the 60-day IL, though there’s no injured list during the offseason, so he will need to retake a roster spot for at least a few months.

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New York Mets Transactions Alex Young Christian Scott Joey Lucchesi

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Twins Outright Cole Irvin

By Anthony Franco | September 30, 2024 at 12:00pm CDT

September 30: Irvin has been outrighted to Triple-A St. Paul, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com.

September 25: The Twins made a handful of moves before tonight’s games against the Marlins. Minnesota designated left-hander Cole Irvin for assignment, optioned southpaw Brent Headrick and placed outfielder Matt Wallner on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain. They’re replaced on the active roster by Justin Topa, Jorge Alcala and Austin Martin. Minnesota recalled Alcala and Martin from Triple-A St. Paul while activating Topa from the 60-day injured list.

Minnesota brought Irvin in on a waiver claim from the Orioles last week. The 30-year-old southpaw made four appearances out of Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen. He allowed five runs across 3 2/3 innings with four walks and only two strikeouts. Irvin made it through a scoreless inning yesterday against Miami but needed to work around a pair of free passes.

This has been a generally tough season for Irvin, whom the O’s had DFA twice as well. He bounced between Baltimore’s rotation and long relief work, combining for a 4.86 ERA across 107 1/3 innings. Irvin had been a durable source of roughly league average innings for the A’s between 2021-22, but he allowed 4.68 earned runs per nine over a season and a half in Baltimore.

The Twins will put Irvin on waivers in the next few days. He’ll almost certainly clear and would likely elect free agency at that point. Minnesota acquired Irvin after the calendar flipped to September. Even if they make the postseason — which now looks to be a long shot as they’ve fallen two games back of the Royals and Tigers with five to play — Irvin would have been ineligible to participate. It’s possible he’ll need to take a minor league deal this offseason.

Topa, 33, steps right into must-win games for his team debut. The Twins acquired him from the Mariners as part of the Jorge Polanco deal. They no doubt envisioned him as a high-leverage bullpen piece after he’d thrown 69 innings of 2.61 ERA ball in a breakout year for Seattle. A lengthy injury history had prevented Topa from emerging until his age-32 campaign, though, and that unfortunately resurfaced with his new organization.

The right-hander suffered a left knee injury in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a partially torn patellar tendon. A rehab stint in July proved unsuccessful. Topa began a new rehab stint last week, pitching two innings in as many Triple-A appearances. With the minor league season finished and time running low for the MLB club, he’ll head to Target Field.

Minnesota’s bullpen has played a role in their second half collapse. Only the Red Sox have a higher bullpen ERA since the All-Star Break. They haven’t blown many leads but have had a tough time keeping games from getting out of hand. Baldelli might be reluctant to plug Topa into leverage spots after a six-month layoff. He’ll at least be a high-upside option in the middle innings.

The Twins will need to mount their playoff push without one of their more productive offensive players. Wallner is hitting .259/.372/.523 with 13 homers across 261 plate appearances. He’s done for the rest of the regular season and would miss at least the Wild Card series if the Twins qualify. Oblique strains usually cost a player multiple weeks, so there’s a good chance his season is over.

Max Kepler told reporters yesterday that he also won’t make it back during the regular season (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). Kepler has missed most of September with a left knee injury. The Twins are going with an outfield of Willi Castro, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach tonight against Miami righty Edward Cabrera.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Cole Irvin Justin Topa Matt Wallner Max Kepler

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Contract Notes: Kiner-Falefa, Heaney, Flexen

By Steve Adams | September 30, 2024 at 11:50am CDT

The Pirates drew plenty of scrutiny for designating first baseman Rowdy Tellez for assignment when he was four plate appearances shy of reaching a $200K bonus in his contract, though management has publicly disputed that the bonus had anything to do with the decision. Another Pittsburgh veteran ultimately landed in a similar spot, but infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa tells Alex Stumpf of MLB.com that he declined an opportunity to enter the lineup and collect a $250K bonus. The infielder finished the season at 496 plate appearances, when his contract would’ve afforded him a $250K bonus for reaching 500 trips to the plate. Manager Derek Shelton initially omitted Kiner-Falefa from the Pirates’ Sunday lineup but, upon learning of the looming bonus, attempted to plug the infielder back into the lineup.

“I didn’t think it was fair to take a spot from [Liover Peguero], or one of the young guys, an opportunity to play at Yankee Stadium away from them,” says Kiner-Falefa, whom the Pirates acquired from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. “I got hurt this year. I missed a month. If that doesn’t happen, or if we’re actually in a real race, I crush those incentives by a long shot. So, at the end of the day, I feel like I didn’t deserve it from that aspect. It’s nothing the team did. They tried to make it right at the end. That meant a lot to me right there. I’m thankful to [Shelton] and the organization to give me that opportunity.”

A couple more interesting contract notes from the final weekend of the season…

  • Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney began his final start of the season Sunday at 156 innings, just four frames away from unlocking a $1.5MM bonus in his two-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that although he was hit hard through the first three innings of the game (seven runs allowed), Heaney was allowed to complete the fourth inning as a reward for the selflessness he’s shown in his two seasons with the club and for the value he’s provided as a teammate in the clubhouse. “[General manager Chris Young] said we are going to do the right things by people, by players and by fans,” Heaney tells Grant. “Chris and [manager] Bruce Bochy are baseball lifers and they understand what it means. I believed everything Chris told me when I signed here. It has been everything he presented and more.” The 33-year-old Heaney finished out the 2024 season with a 4.28 ERA in his 160 frames and logged an overall 4.22 ERA in 307 1/3 innings over his two years in Texas. He’s a free agent this winter.
  • Right-hander Chris Flexen has eaten innings at the back of the White Sox’ rotation amid the team’s historically feeble season, and the club made sure in his final start of the season that Flexen was able to reach the final incentive milestone in his one-year, $1.75MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale points out. Flexen’s deal called for $250K bonuses at each of 75, 100, 125 and 160 innings. The right-hander entered Sunday’s start with 153 2/3 innings under his belt. Flexen made the decision pretty easy for the Sox, as he tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Angels. Still, few would’ve questioned the decision to pull Flexen after six scoreless innings, 88 pitches and a 7-0 lead. But the Sox made sure to send Flexen back out for the seventh and only lifted him after he’d recorded that first out to get him to that 160-inning threshold. He finished out the season with a 4.95 ERA, leading the team in innings and ranking second to Garrett Crochet with 30 starts. Flexen will head back to free agency this winter.
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Chicago White Sox Notes Pittsburgh Pirates Texas Rangers Andrew Heaney Chris Flexen Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast

By Darragh McDonald | September 30, 2024 at 9:54am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 season is moving into the postseason, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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The Opener: NL Wild Card, Cardinals, Red Sox

By Nick Deeds | September 30, 2024 at 8:47am CDT

With the regular season now over for 28 of the league’s 30 clubs, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. NL Wild Card race reaches finish line:

MLB was forced to postpone the final two games of a three-game set between the Braves and Mets last week due to the impact of Hurricane Helene, but with the final two NL Wild Card spots still up in the air after the scheduled end of the regular season, those games will be made up as part of a doubleheader today. If either Atlanta or New York get swept in today’s doubleheader, they’ll miss the playoffs as the winner moves on to face the Padres in San Diego during the Wild Card Series, while the Diamondbacks head to Milwaukee for a match up against the Brewers. If the two teams split the series, the Braves will head to San Diego while the Mets head to Milwaukee, leaving Arizona out of the playoffs and unable to defend their status as the reigning champs of the NL.

Game 1 of today’s doubleheader is scheduled to begin at 1:10pm local time in Atlanta. Rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach (3.47 ERA in 20 starts) will be on the mound for the Braves in Game 1, and The Athletic’s David O’Brien was among those to note that veteran southpaw Chris Sale (2.38 ERA in 29 starts) will take the mound in Game 2 if the Braves are facing elimination. In the event that Braves win Game 1 today, however, Atlanta appears poised to push Sale back to tomorrow so he can face San Diego in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. As for the Mets, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com notes that right-hander Tylor Megill (3.98 ERA in 14 starts) is set to face Schwellenbach in Game 1 while Luis Severino (3.91 ERA in 31 starts) will start Game 2 if the Mets are facing elimination. Like Sale, Severino would be held back for the start of the Wild Card Series should New York emerge victorious in Game 1.

2. Cardinals to hold presser amid organizational changes:

As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, the Cardinals are set to hold a press conference at 2pm local time in St. Louis this afternoon on the heels of a disappointing 83-79 season where the club missed the playoffs for the second year in a row. The presser comes on the heels of plenty of news in the rumor mill regarding the Cardinals’ future over the weekend. That includes a report that the club will part ways with longtime first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and look to deal veteran players over the winter in an effort to cut payroll, with veteran right-hander Sonny Gray among those who could be shopped. While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and manager Oli Marmol are both set to remain in their roles with the club in 2025, former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom figures to take a much larger role in the club’s front office going forward.

3. Red Sox to hold end of season press conference:

The Red Sox announced last week that manager Alex Cora, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, and team president Sam Kennedy are scheduled to hold a press conference together later today to discuss the club’s plans for the offseason as they look ahead to 2025. Boston finished the year with an 81-81 record and missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season, though they did enjoy breakouts from young members of their core like Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu. Veteran starter Nick Pivetta, closer Kenley Jansen, set-up man Chris Martin, and slugger Tyler O’Neill are among the club’s outgoing free agents this winter.

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The Opener

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Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

By Nick Deeds | September 29, 2024 at 11:35pm CDT

The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

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Newsstand St. Louis Cardinals Andrew Kittredge Keynan Middleton Nolan Arenado Paul Goldschmidt Ryan Helsley Sonny Gray Willson Contreras

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