The Red Sox are acquiring infielder Caleb Durbin from the Brewers, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Milwaukee receives a three-player package including lefties Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan as well as infielder David Hamilton, Passan adds. Boston is also picking up infielder Andruw Monasterio, catcher/infielder Anthony Seigler and a Competitive Balance Round B pick, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.
More to come.
8:05am: ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Ozuna will earn $10.5MM in 2026 salary, plus a $1.5MM buyout on a $16MM mutual option for the 2027 season. A mutual option hasn’t been exercised by both parties since 2014, so that option effectively just kicks a portion of the guarantee down the road by a year.
7:54am: The Pirates and slugger Marcell Ozuna are in agreement on a one-year, $12MM contract, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. The CAA client’s contract is pending a physical.
Ozuna turned 35 in November. The 2025 season was a down showing by his standards, but he was still a better-than-average offensive performer overall down in Atlanta. He batted .232/.355/.400 with a career-high 15.9% walk rate, a 24.3% strikeout rate, 21 homers and 19 doubles in 592 plate appearances. That overall line was weighed down by a brutal stretch in the middle of a roller-coaster season. Ozuna raced out to a scorching start in April and May, was one of the league’s worst hitters in June, and then settled in as a slightly above-average hitter for the season’s final three months.
The downturn in production dovetailed with a hip injury through which Ozuna continued to play at less than 100%. It’s impossible to say for certain whether that, age, or a combination of both was the driving factor in last season’s dip in bat speed, but Statcast measured his bat speed at 75 mph in 2023 (86th percentile of MLB hitters), 74 mph in 2024 (81st percentile) and 72.9 mph in 2025 (64th percentile). Accordingly, his typically elite exit velocity and hard-hit rate both fell. Ozuna averaged 89.9 mph off the bat and logged a 44.4% hard-hit rate in 2025. Both are still decent marks, but they’re down considerably from the 92.2 mph and 53.3% marks he posted as recently as 2024.
While Ozuna ought to be an upgrade to Pittsburgh’s lineup overall, the fit isn’t exactly perfect. Beyond the fact that PNC Park is perhaps the worst environment in MLB for right-handed power, the Buccos’ roster is a bit cluttered with corner bats who could use some of the DH time that Ozuna will now command on an everyday basis. Spencer Horwitz and Ryan O’Hearn had been lined up to share time at first base and designated hitter, with O’Hearn perhaps seeing some time in left. Horwitz, after a slow start to his season in 2025, finished the year out on a blistering .314/.402/.539 tear in his final two-plus months of play. He’s locked into an everyday role. O’Hearn can play in the outfield corners, but Bryan Reynolds has one of those two spots locked down.
Signing Ozuna, who has hasn’t played in the field at all in either of the past two seasons (and only logged 14 innings in 2023), likely pushes O’Hearn into an everyday role in the outfield. He has plenty of experience on the grass but rates as a sub-par defender there, whereas he’s an above-average defender at first base. Horwitz does have 604 professional innings in left field to his credit, so he could perhaps be on option in left as well, but all 604 of those frames have been in the minors — half of them back in 2019 and 2021. He’s played some second base, too, but that was a short experiment and the Pirates already acquired Brandon Lowe to man that position.
Presumably, the primary alignment moving forward will have O’Hearn in left field, Lowe at second, Horwitz at first base and Ozuna at designated hitter. It’s not Pittsburgh’s ideal setup from a defensive standpoint, but the Pirates will make that sacrifice in the name of getting some quality bats into the middle of what has typically been one of MLB’s weakest lineups over the past decade-plus. Newcomers O’Hearn, Lowe and Ozuna will join holdovers like Reynolds, Horwitz and Oneil Cruz, giving the Bucs a potentially strong top six in their order at the very least — and that’s before counting shortstop Konnor Griffin, who is the sport’s consensus No. 1 overall prospect and should debut in 2026.
Bringing Ozuna into the fold also seems to formally put an end to Andrew McCutchen’s second act in Pittsburgh. He could feasibly be a right-handed bench bat who takes some occasional corner outfield reps, but McCutchen played 120 games at designated hitter in 2025. Signing Ozuna clearly displaces him from that role, and it’s hard to see the two fitting together on the same roster. McCutchen recently met with Pirates owner Bob Nutting, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last week — a meeting that came on the heels of the franchise icon voicing some frustration with the manner in which the team had handled offseason talks.
Adding Ozuna pushes the Pirates’ payroll to $105MM, per RosterResource, which will somewhat remarkably establish a new franchise-record for Opening Day payroll. It’s still a very modest total relative to the rest of the league, but the Bucs have spent more than $50MM in free agency overall and also taken on Lowe’s $11.5MM salary in a trade with the Rays. It’s possible there are additional moves to come. The Pirates have been in the market for third base upgrades as well. That market has been largely picked over, but there are still surely some creative options they can pursue on the trade market.
It’s not clear exactly how much more ownership is willing to boost the payroll, but the team’s reported four-year, $120-125MM offer to Kyle Schwarber and the flurry of subsequent additions pretty clearly indicates that Nutting is willing to spend at levels he has not considered approaching in the past. The Bucs currently have a plus defender at the hot corner in Jared Triolo, but he’s a well below-average hitter who’s capable of fielding multiple spots around the infield, so he could fit nicely in a utility/bench role if GM Ben Cherington can find a third base acquisition to his liking on the trade market.
The Pirates and Red Sox are two of “at least five teams” discussing Isaac Paredes in trade talks with the Astros, according to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal. This is the first time Pittsburgh has been linked to Paredes, though the two-time All-Star has been known to be a Red Sox target for much of the winter.
Boston’s quest for infield help has been one of their primary offseason storylines, with such names as Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Nico Hoerner, Brendan Donovan and many others reportedly considered as free agent or trade targets. In Donovan’s case, Rome and Rosenthal report that the Sox had some negotiations with the Astros and Cardinals about a three-team trade that would’ve sent Paredes to Boston, Donovan to Houston, and presumably a multi-player prospect package to the rebuilding Cardinals.
Instead, St. Louis opted for another three-team trade with the Mariners and Rays, with Donovan landing in Seattle. The breakdown of what the Cardinals might’ve gotten from the Astros or Red Sox isn’t known, but the Donovan deal with Tampa and the M’s netted St. Louis a recent first-round pitching prospect (Jurrangelo Cijntje), two other prospects (Tai Peete, Colton Ledbetter) and two 2026 draft picks from Competitive Balance Round B. The CBR picks are the only types of draft picks that can be traded, so the fact that the Rays and Mariners had such available selections and the Sox and Astros didn’t could have quite possibly been a factor in the Cards’ decision to accept that deal over the other three-team proposal.
Had the Cardinals been amenable to what the Red Sox and Astros offered, the deal would’ve checked off a couple of major boxes for the two AL teams. Paredes would’ve stepped right in as Boston’s everyday third baseman, adding right-handed balance to the Sox lineup and moving Marcelo Mayer into the unsettled second base mix. Donovan is known for his multi-positional versatility, but he would’ve likely been Houston’s everyday left fielder, with the Astros starting infield then settling as Carlos Correa at third base, Jeremy Pena at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base, and Christian Walker at first base. Yordan Alvarez is set for regular DH at-bats and neither Alvarez or Altuve are well-suited to left field work, so having Paredes in the fold creates something of a logjam for playing time if everyone is healthy.
Houston GM Dana Brown has repeatedly said that the Astros are fine with their infield situation, though this could be some gamesmanship at play, as recent reports suggested that the Astros may indeed still be looking to deal from their infield surplus. Rome and Rosenthal write that Paredes and Walker are both being floated in trade discussions, and “Paredes is more likely to be dealt than Walker, whose cumbersome contract and limited no-trade clause make it more difficult to move him.”
The three-year, $60MM free agent deal Walker signed last winter contains a six-team no-trade clause. Beyond the money and the no-trade protection, Walker is also entering his age-35 season, and he hit only .238/.297/.421 over 640 plate appearances (translating to a 99 wRC+) in his first season in Houston. Paredes missed almost two months of the 2025 season due to a hamstring injury but was terrific when he did play, batting .254/.352/.458 across 438 PA.
It isn’t an ideal situation for the Astros that one of their better and less-expensive players might be their most logical trade candidate. However, because Houston’s other infielders seem less likely to be moved for a variety of reasons, dealing Paredes might be the best way for Houston to both alleviate the infield surplus, and add a much-needed left-handed bat to the outfield.
As Rome and Rosenthal note, the most obvious way for the Astros and Red Sox to address their twin needs would simply be to make a deal with each other, since Boston has a plethora of left-handed hitting outfielders. Jarren Duran has been viewed as the outfielder the Sox may be most willing to move, though Rome/Rosenthal write that the Astros prefer Wilyer Abreu over Duran, in part because of price. Abreu doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility under next winter, while Duran is making $7.7MM in 2026 and his salaries will continue to rise over his remaining two arb years.
It remains to be seen if the Astros and Red Sox could finally line up on a deal themselves, or if perhaps another third party could get involved to help facilitate a trade. There’s also the possibility that Houston could move Paredes elsewhere entirely, given the widespread interest in his services.
The Pirates and Astros already joined forces on a prominent trade back in December, when the two clubs and the Rays engaged in a three-team swap. The Buccos traded from their rotation depth in moving Mike Burrows to Houston in that deal, while Pittsburgh bolstered its lineup by acquiring Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum. Between that trade, the Ryan O’Hearn signing, and the deal with the Red Sox that brought Jhostynxon Garcia into the outfield picture, the Pirates have made a priority of adding some much-needed hitting help to the roster.
Landing Paredes would arguably be the biggest move of all for the Pirates’ offense, and it would fill a hole at third base. Jared Triolo is Pittsburgh’s projected starter at the hot corner, and while Triolo is a plus defender, he has hit only .221/.303/.334 over his last 822 PA in 2024-25. In terms of how the Bucs could meet Houston’s needs, the Pirates have multiple outfielders who are either lefty swingers or switch-hitters, yet none seem like exactly a fit. Oneil Cruz likely isn’t going anywhere, Bryan Reynolds is probably too pricey for the Astros, and neither Mangum or Jack Suwinski would provide clear offensive help.
What other teams could speculatively be in on Paredes? Many contenders are already set at the corner infield slots, though if Paredes is viewed as an upgrade over an incumbent, a deal could be swung with a third team involved. On paper, the Brewers, Tigers, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Athletics stand out as contenders or would-be contenders who could stand to improve at at least one of the first or third base positions.
The Rays have hired Joe Hudson and Beau Sulser to the team’s player development ranks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The hirings presumably indicate that Hudson and Sulser have ended their playing careers.
Hudson began his pro career as a sixth-round pick for the Reds in the 2012 draft, and his MLB career consisted of 19 games over parts of four seasons. The catcher suited up for the Angels, Cardinals, and Mariners during the 2018-20 seasons, and after three full years in the minors, Hudson returned to the Show for a single appearance with the Mets during the 2024 campaign. Over Hudson’s 33 plate appearances, he hit .167/.219/.200 with one double and one RBI.
Beyond the four teams Hudson played with at the Major League level, he played for several other organizations in the minors, including the 2022 season spent with the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate in Durham. It is fair to assume Hudson made a good impression on Rays officials during that season, resulting in this new role now that Hudson has decided to hang up the cleats at age 34.
Sulser never played for Tampa during his 12 pro seasons, though there is a family connection by way of his older brother Cole, who is in his second stint in a Rays uniform. Beau was a 10th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2017 draft, and the right-hander spent the majority of his career with Pittsburgh over four different stints with the organization.
Sulser’s only taste of the majors came in 2022, when he tossed 22 1/3 innings across 10 appearances with the Pirates and Orioles. Sulser had a 3.63 ERA over that cup of coffee in the Show, as well as a 4.47 ERA across 485 1/3 innings in the affiliated minor leagues. The 31-year-old’s career also includes three stops overseas, as Sulser pitched in the Australian Baseball League (in 2020), the KBO League (in 2023), and the Chinese Professional Baseball League (last season).
Rays fans have been waiting two years to see Shane McClanahan on a big-league mound. The electric lefty missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, then lost another season to a nerve issue in his triceps. McClanahan is on track to be ready for the 2026 campaign, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, though the southpaw will likely have his workload capped in some fashion.
McClanahan was solid in his 2021 debut, then morphed into an AL Cy Young candidate the following season. He put together 28 starts of a 2.54 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning in 2022. McClanahan capped off the year with a strong start against the Guardians in the Wild Card round. He tossed seven innings of two-run ball, but was outdueled by Shane Bieber.
Even if he faces some sort of innings limit, adding McClanahan back to the rotation will be a welcome sight for a depleted Rays staff. Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot sit atop the group, but the certainties end there. Shane Baz tied for the team lead with 31 starts last season, but he is now pitching in Baltimore. Veterans Zack Littell and Adrian Houser are no longer in the organization. Taj Bradley was sent to Minnesota at the trade deadline. Joe Boyle, free agent signee Steven Matz, and trade acquisition Yoendrys Gomez are candidates to fill out the rotation, and Littell could also potentially come back in free agency.
Griffin Canning is recovering from his own major injury. The free agent right-hander is working his way back from a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered with the Mets last season. Canning threw for interested teams on Friday and hit 93 mph on the radar gun, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
The Cardinals, White Sox, and Mets have been mentioned as possible destinations for Canning. The veteran was putting together a strong campaign before going down in June. Canning had a career-best 3.77 ERA through 16 starts after signing a modest one-year, $4.25MM deal with New York. He ramped up his slider usage while tweaking the characteristics of the pitch with his new team, and Canning added more than three inches of vertical drop and 1.5 inches of horizontal movement to his primary breaking ball. He also made adjustments to his changeup. The tweaks helped Canning regain some of the strikeout ability he lost in his final season with the Angels.
On the position player side, utilityman Otto Kemp is expected to be a full go for the upcoming season. Kemp fractured his kneecap less than two weeks after getting called up last year. He played through the injury for the rest of the campaign. Kemp underwent offseason surgery to fix the issue and also had a cleanup procedure done on his shoulder. He told NBC Sports Philadelphia in an interview that he’s bouncing back well from the operations.
“Feeling back to 100%, which is awesome,” Kemp said. “It’s refreshing to feel that way after playing a lot of baseball banged up.”
The now 26-year-old provided some pop in his first taste of the big leagues, hitting eight home runs in 62 games. He finished with a .411 SLG, though it came with a strikeout rate above 30%. Kemp is among the internal options to compete for platoon work alongside Brandon Marsh in the outfield.
T.R. Sullivan was a legend on the Rangers beat. He retired in December 2020 after 32 years writing for the Denison Herald, Fort Worth Star-Telegram and MLB.com. T.R. is also a friend to MLBTR. A couple of months ago, he kindly offered up a retrospective on the Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas trade. “I just felt like writing it,” T.R. explained. More recently, Texas got shut down by a snowstorm, which T.R. took as an opportunity to explore the 1989 trade involving Harold Baines, Sammy Sosa and others. We’re proud to publish it!
Texas Gov. George W. Bush was in the middle of an ultimately successful run for the White House in 2000 when he made a guest appearance on Late Night with David Letterman.
At one point, they started talking about Bush’s biggest mistakes, the ones he really regretted.
“Well,” Bush said with a sly smile. “I once traded away Sammy Sosa.”
The line got big laughs from the audience – coming at the height of Sosa’s career as a power-hitting outfielder – but probably not as much from Rangers fans watching at home in Texas. Bush’s twin daughters Jenna and Barbara probably weren’t amused either considering the same trade also involved Rangers shortstop Scott Fletcher.
The veteran infielder just happened to be their favorite player. They named their dog “Spot” in his honor.
The reality is Bush did not make that trade. True, he was the Rangers co-managing general partner in 1989 when Sosa, Fletcher and pitcher Wilson Álvarez were traded to the White Sox for outfielder Harold Baines and infielder Fred Manrique.
But the guy who made the trade was general manager Tom Grieve, who many years later would confess, “The minute I made that trade I knew it was a mistake. We made the deal for all the wrong reasons.”
The guy on the other end of the deal was White Sox GM Larry Himes, who would later hold the same position with the Cubs. In both jobs, Himes pulled off a trade that involved acquiring Sosa for a veteran All-Star designated hitter.
The first trade was not a popular one with White Sox fans at the time.
“It’s an unpopular decision as far as the fans are concerned…it doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good decision,” Himes said in the Chicago Tribune.
The Rangers-White Sox trade came down on July 29, 1989. At the time, the Rangers were trying to stay alive in the A.L West race and the White Sox were in a rebuilding mode. It was a classic mid-season trade, just like hundreds of others that are made or at least talked about at the trade deadline down through the years.
But this trade turned out different. This is the trade that wouldn’t go away. Instead, as the years passed, it really did take on a life of its own with a bewildering number of twists and turns involving implications felt from the White House and halls of Congress to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
In short, the trade involved a future member of the Hall of Fame, but not the one everybody expected, the one who ended up having to testify in front of Congress on national television at the height of baseball’s steroids scandal.
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4:25PM: The deal is a split contract that will pay Melendez a lesser salary for time spent in the minors, as per Will Sammon and Tim Britton of The Athletic. The Mets view Melendez as primarily an outfielder, but with the potential to chip in at first base, and act as an emergency catcher.
2:47PM: The Mets have agreed to a one-year deal with MJ Melendez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It’s a $1.5MM pact that includes $500K in incentives. Melendez is a Boras Corporation client.
Melendez broke camp with the Royals last season, but was sent to Triple-A midway through April. He spent another week with the big-league club in July, and finished his 2025 season with just five hits in 65 MLB plate appearances. Kansas City non-tendered Melendez after the season rather than pay him a projected $2.65MM in arbitration, and he wraps up his time in the organization with an 88 wRC+ over 1652 PA across parts of four seasons — a disappointment for a player once considered one of the Royals’ top prospects.
The 27-year-old Melendez did well to garner a guaranteed deal after the rough showing in not just 2025, but for the bulk of his big league career. The Mets are likely intrigued by his numbers at Omaha last season (.261/.323/.490 with 20 homers and 20 steals over 480 plate appearances) and his past top-100 prospect pedigree. Melendez is also arbitration-controlled through the 2029 season, due to Super Two status.
While the Royals were ready to part ways with Melendez, there is some change-of-scenery potential as he heads to Queens. For a relatively inexpensive one-year deal, it’s a risk the Mets are willing to take, though it should be noted that Melendez’s overall price tag is boosted by New York’s luxury tax overages. Because the Mets have exceeded the top tax threshold in each of the last four seasons, Melendez will really cost the team $3.15MM, between Melendez’s salary and then the 110% tax bill.
On paper, Melendez provides some outfield depth for a team planning to give star prospect Carson Benge a full shot at the everyday left field job. Benge has yet to make his Major League debut, so having another experienced outfielder like Melendez on hand gives the Mets some coverage if Benge isn’t yet ready for the Show. That said, Melendez (a converted catcher) has been a subpar defender as a left fielder, so he remains a question mark with both his glove and his bat.
The White Sox acquired right-hander Jordan Hicks as little more than a financial chip, allowing the Red Sox to trim payroll for the price of an intriguing prospect. Boston escaped from $16MM of the $24MM they owed the veteran through 2027. To facilitate the maneuver, the Red Sox sent over right-hander David Sandlin, who immediately slotted in as a top 10 prospect in Chicago’s system, per FanGraphs.
It’s a solid piece of business for an organization with ample payroll flexibility. Even after adding Hicks, Austin Hays, and Seranthony Dominguez, the White Sox project to have the fourth-lowest payroll in the league. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the club at $86MM, right in line with the $85MM it spent last season.
So where does that leave Hicks? He struggled with the Giants last season and was even worse when he came to the Red Sox as part of the Rafael Devers trade. The starter experience went well with San Francisco early in 2024, but has since looked like an ill-advised path. Hicks is now two years and three franchises removed from being a dominant reliever. He joins a Chicago roster with little in the way of talent and experience in the bullpen.
Hicks debuted with the Cardinals in 2018. He quickly gained notoriety for a 100-mph sinker that generated just as many cool GIFs as it did broken bats. Harnessing the pitch was an issue, as Hicks recorded a bloated 13.3% walk rate in his first MLB stint. He opened the 2019 campaign as the primary closer, but a UCL tear ended his season in June. The injury would kick off a lengthy stretch marred by health concerns. Hicks missed time over the next four years with elbow, forearm, neck, and arm fatigue issues.
St. Louis got a healthy first half out of Hicks in 2023 and used the opportunity to deal him to Toronto. He was solid with the Blue Jays, mostly setting up for incumbent closer Jordan Romano. Hicks landed a decent four-year, $44MM commitment from the Giants that offseason. He earned a spot in the rotation, and the transition initially went swimmingly. Hicks allowed two earned runs or fewer in his first seven starts with San Francisco. He expanded the usage of his secondaries while trimming his velocity to a more sustainable level.
Hicks trended down after the solid first month as a starter. His fastball steadily lost ticks as the innings piled up. After allowing 12 runs across 13 innings to open July, Hicks was booted from the rotation. He was given another shot as a starter this past season, but it went even worse. Hicks was strictly a reliever once he joined the Red Sox.
It seems pretty clear from the past two years of results that Hicks’ lone path to big-league viability is as a reliever. That’s where the Chicago front office landed after bringing him in.
“At its floor, we have a guy who can really help us in the bullpen, get him back on track, being that he’s been kind of back and forth on different roles, a couple of different stops along the way,” general manager Chris Getz told reporters, including Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “I think the White Sox are at [their] best if he’s at his best in the bullpen.”
The run prevention results were bad (8.20 ERA), but Hicks posted a strong 111 Stuff+ in 18 2/3 innings out of the Boston bullpen. His sinker and slider were at 115 and 117, respectively. Hicks’ four-seamer and splitter graded out poorly, though he used them infrequently.
“Our stuff grades, both metrically and our scouting evaluations, are still really strong,” Getz said. “There’s likely some tweaking that can go with his arsenal … It sounds like it’s in a really good spot … We think he’s a guy that is not too far off from being the guy he once was.”
Chicago has gone three straight seasons without a reliever securing double-digit saves. Liam Hendriks was the last to do it, with 37 in 2022. Jordan Leasure paced the team with seven saves in 2025. Grant Taylor and Mike Vasil combined to close out 10 games. Leasure, Taylor, and Vasil should remain in the late-inning mix. Dominguez will likely be the closer to start the year, but he’s a candidate to get moved at the trade deadline if he performs well.
Hicks should get the chance to work his way into high-leverage spots. A Dominguez trade would open the door for a two-month trial as the closer. Hicks will be under contract for $12MM in 2027. He could serve as an affordable stopper next season. There are several “ifs” and “coulds” in that scenario, but for his part, Hicks sounds ready to return to a prominent role. He told reporters that he hit 99.5 mph in a recent bullpen session. The reliever added that he wasn’t sore the next day after sitting in the upper 90s during the outing.
“That’s telling me that my body’s in a good place,” Hicks said.
Much has been made of the Yankees’ apparent offseason strategy of “running it back.” While retaining Trent Grisham and especially Cody Bellinger surely count as successes, some fans were hoping for more tangible improvements. Aaron Judge will be 34 in April, and there are only so many years left in his prime (at least as a perennial MVP candidate). The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox have all upgraded their rosters, meaning the Yankees will have their work cut out for them in 2026.
One area with a range of potential outcomes is the rotation. The group performed quite well in 2025, placing eighth in the league with a combined 13.5 fWAR. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón were the biggest reasons for that success. Fried excelled in a career-high 195 1/3 innings, showcasing his signature control and groundball tendencies en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Rodón matched Fried’s innings total in his best season as a Yankee, posting a 3.09 ERA with an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate and cutting down on home runs. Rookie Will Warren made 33 starts and showed promise, as did Cam Schlittler in a second-half callup.
The ceiling is clearly high, especially if Warren and Schlittler do well in their sophomore campaigns. Still, there are downside risks related to injuries, underperformance, and depth. Starting with injuries, Gerrit Cole will be back at some point after missing last year due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, he only pitched half a season in 2024 due to elbow inflammation. He is now 35 years old with his last full-season workload coming in 2023, when he won the AL Cy Young award.
Manager Aaron Boone said last week that Cole has “had a good rehab” with “no hiccups” (link via Manny Randhawa of MLB.com). It’s not a matter of whether he will perform well when he returns. The question is whether he will sustain his ace-level, pre-injury performance now that he is in his mid-30s and coming off of injury. There is also the matter of volume, as even a June return from Cole would leave several months’ worth of innings for other starters to cover.
Rodón is in a similar spot after undergoing surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He is more likely to avoid starting 2026 on the 60-day injured list than Cole, with Rodón aiming to return in late April or early May. He is two years younger than Cole, so he’s less of a risk to suddenly decline. The question with Rodón is whether he can repeat his 2025 performance. A look at his Statcast page offers reason for optimism, with his fastball, breaking, and offspeed run values all grading in the 91st percentile or better. That said, he was more of a mid-rotation starter in 2024, when he posted a 3.95 ERA and allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings. Both he and Cole are under contract through 2028.
As for the younger arms, a lot of the rotation’s success depends on improvement from Warren and Schlittler maintaining his performance over a larger sample. For Warren, that comes down to improving his secondary offerings. While his fastball graded out in the 95th percentile by run value, his breaking and offspeed pitches were points of struggle. His slider was his main breaking pitch, but Statcast considered it 10.6 runs below average. His curveball and changeup were both at least 4.6 runs below average. His 24.1% strikeout rate was impressive, but he’ll need to sharpen his secondary offerings and cut back on hard contact if he wants to become a true mid-rotation starter.
Schlittler was a revelation in 14 starts last year. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate in 73 innings during the regular season and turned in an all-time rookie performance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox. His ceiling is arguably higher than Warren’s, although there are similar questions regarding his secondary offerings and control. Statcast took a negative view of his curveball and slider, which he only used a combined 17.3% of the time. Meanwhile, his 10.2% walk rate could use some improvement. None of that diminishes the value of his plus fastball, of course. Still, he’ll need to make adjustments in order to sustain last year’s performance.
Outside of those arms, the club has Luis Gil and newly-acquired Ryan Weathers on hand. Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2024 but only threw 57 innings over 11 starts last year due to a right lat strain. His 3.32 ERA was good on the surface, but his peripheral numbers – 4.94 xERA and 4.63 FIP – painted him about a run and a half higher. His struggles with control are well-known at this point, and he also suffered a 10.0% drop in strikeout rate in 2025.
Weathers has 86th-percentile fastball velocity, but he has only thrown 281 big-league innings since debuting in 2021. Last year, he was limited to eight starts and 38 1/3 innings due to left flexor and lat strains. The Yankees shelled out four prospects to acquire him, so they’ll give him a chance to harness his fastball while betting on better health. Otherwise, the team has Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn as depth options. Yarbrough did well enough last year, but neither option inspires much confidence if they need to cover significant innings. Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt underwent UCL surgery in July, so he won’t be an option until the second half, if at all.
How do you think the Yankees’ rotation will fare in 2026? Be sure to let us know in the poll.
Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images
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