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The Best Fits For A Ketel Marte Trade

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Star Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte has dominated trade rumblings over the past month-plus. Despite frequently stating that he doesn't consider a trade likely, general manager Mike Hazen has been hammered by calls from opposing teams hoping to pry the All-Star slugger away from Arizona.

Marte is enough of a known commodity that we needn't run through an extensive breakdown of his résumé here, but it bears spelling out some of the basics. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger winner has steadily produced anywhere from above-average to elite offense dating back to 2018. He's a switch-hitter who touts a massive .283/.368/.519 slash (140 wRC+) over the past three seasons. Marte is a superstar talent who's signed to a contract more commensurate with a freshly extended arbitration player. He's owed $102.5MM over the next six seasons, with the final year of that being an $11.5MM player option. He'll be paid $15MM in 2026, $12MM in 2027, $20MM in 2028 and $22MM in 2029-30.

Arizona has reportedly been seeking multiple major league-ready starting pitchers to even consider parting with Marte. Specifically, they're targeting controllable arms who can be long-term cogs in the starting staff. They reportedly talked with the Rays about a deal including both Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz before the latter was traded to Baltimore, for instance.

Hazen has been relatively open about listening to offers and his reluctance to actually move Marte throughout the winter. He indicated last week that one way or another, he'd like to wrap up this situation soon. That was understandably viewed by many as something of a call for best and final offers.

With resolution on the situation seemingly nigh, one way or another, it feels worth running through the league to find the best fits for Marte, some viable dark-horse spots, and also lay out the clubs that don't feel like they'll be much of a factor at all. Let's run through it all.

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Astros, Christian Roa Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros reached a minor league agreement with right-hander Christian Roa, according to the MLB.com transaction tracker. It’s a homecoming for the Houston native and Texas A&M product.

Roa was a second-round pick of the Reds in 2020. Cincinnati added him to the 40-man roster three years later to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Roa struggled in Triple-A during the ’24 season. He sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in August without reaching the majors. The Reds tried to sneak him through waivers at year’s end, but the Marlins stepped in with a claim.

Miami succeeded in getting Roa through waivers a couple weeks later. The 26-year-old spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A Jacksonville. He had a nice year, working to a 2.60 earned run average while striking out 26.1% of batters faced. Miami called him up in the final few weeks. Roa got into his first two big league contests, tossing three scoreless innings. He struck out and walked three batters apiece. The Fish outrighted him again at the end of the season, leading him to elect minor league free agency.

Roa has a four-seam fastball and sinker that each sit around 96 MPH on average. He leans mostly on the heaters and a mid-80s slider, only sporadically mixing in a changeup. Roa had starting experience early in his minor league career but has been a full-time bullpen arm for the last two seasons. His command never developed to a passable level to start. Last year’s 11.4% walk percentage was still an issue but represented a step forward from his 14-17% marks of the previous three seasons.

Bregman Rumors: Red Sox, D-Backs, Tigers, Cubs

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Alex Bregman’s market appears more muddled after the Blue Jays signed NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Toronto had been tied to the three-time All-Star but no longer seems to have room for an infielder (barring a reunion with Bo Bichette).

The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Tigers have been the remaining most frequently speculated landing spots. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested last week that Boston has an offer on the table. In a column at ESPN this morning, Olney floated the possibility that the Red Sox might be willing to do something similar to the six-year, $171.5MM offer which the Tigers reportedly made to Bregman last winter. There’s no firm reporting about what the Red Sox have put on the table, to be clear, so the notion that the Red Sox could go long term seems mostly to be informed speculation on Olney’s part.

Boston landed Bregman on a three-year deal with opt-outs last winter. They juiced the average annual value to $40MM, albeit with significant deferrals that dropped the actual value closer to $30MM annually. Bregman is no longer attached to a qualifying offer and coming off a better season on a rate basis than he had in 2024. He’s also entering his age-32 season, so he may be more incentivized to secure the longest deal and maximum guarantee. The upside of taking short-term deals with opt-outs decreases as a player approaches his mid-30s.

ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com each wrote on Tuesday that many within the industry considered Arizona and Toronto the top threats to a Boston reunion before the Jays added Okamoto. That’d naturally point to the Diamondbacks as the strongest challengers now, yet most chatter on the Bregman/Arizona tie has been connected to a potential Ketel Marte trade. With D-Backs general manager Mike Hazen implying they could soon pull Marte from the market entirely, that could have a trickle-down impact on Bregman.

Arizona could certainly fit Marte and Bregman on the roster. The latter would step in as the everyday third baseman. The bigger question is whether ownership would sign off on another nine-figure infield investment after extending Marte for $102.5MM last spring. The long-term payroll would be a bigger stumbling block than this year’s outlook. Marte agreed to defer $6MM of his $15MM salary in 2026, so trading him would only free up a fraction of the first-year salary that Bregman would command.

Meanwhile, two of last year’s finalists appear to be less involved this time around. Detroit has reportedly thus far shied away from making another long-term offer. Top shortstop prospect Kevin McGonigle is on the doorstep of the majors. Bregman would be a significant upgrade over the current third base grouping of Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry and potentially Javier Báez once McGonigle arrives.

Manager A.J. Hinch gave a vote of confidence to McKinstry in response to speculation about a third base acquisition. “I get asked about third base all the time. I’m like, ’Our guy made the All-Star team,'” Detroit’s skipper told Audacy’s 97.1 The Ticket (h/t to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press).

McKinstry was indeed an All-Star behind an excellent first half, but he has been a career utility player and hit .213/.278/.378 after the Break. It’s hard to believe he’s truly standing in the way of the Tigers signing Bregman — though it’s understandable that Hinch would publicly defend his player. Detroit’s $165MM payroll projection is already more than $20MM above where they opened the 2025 season, which seems a bigger obstacle to a significant free agent move.

The Cubs proposed a four-year, $115MM deal last winter. They’ve been positioned on the periphery of the market this time around. Matt Shaw had an encouraging second half of his rookie season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins spoke at the Winter Meetings about their confidence in the 24-year-old infielder. It doesn’t appear that much has changed in the past month on that end. Feinsand reports that while the Cubs continue to have some level of interest in Bregman, they’re not expected to make the highest offer.

Tigers, Dugan Darnell Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers agreed to a minor league contract with reliever Dugan Darnell, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press reports that Darnell will receive a non-roster invite to MLB camp. He’d make a little more than the $780K league minimum if he cracks the big league roster.

Although Darnell will be with the club in camp, he’s not going to see any game action. The 28-year-old underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his left hip at the end of September. That came with an eight-month recovery timetable that’ll sideline him into May. He’ll presumably head to Triple-A Toledo at that point and look to pitch his way onto the MLB roster.

Darnell is a native of Northville, Michigan, who played collegiately in the state at Division III Adrian College. He went undrafted and pitched in the independent ranks before getting a professional look with the Rockies. Darnell pitched to a 3.74 earned run average across 200 minor league appearances in the Colorado organization. That included 53 2/3 frames of 3.19 ERA ball in a very difficult environment at Triple-A Albuquerque last season. Darnell earned his first MLB call as a result, allowing five runs over 11 2/3 innings until suffering the injury.

The righty has a three-pitch mix led by a 93-94 MPH fastball. He uses a splitter as his top secondary offering against left-handed hitters while relying more evenly on the split and a slider against righties. Darnell didn’t show enough in his limited MLB look to hold an offseason 40-man spot with Colorado. He bounced to Pittsburgh and Detroit on waiver claims. The Tigers non-tendered him shortly after but succeeded in bringing him back in a non-roster capacity. They did the same with non-tendered receivers Jack Little, Tyler Mattison, Tanner Rainey and Sean Guenther.

Meanwhile, Petzold reported yesterday that Detroit reached minor league deals with each of Dylan File, Woo-suk Go and Wandisson Charles. None of that trio received an invite to Spring Training, however. That indicates they’re viewed purely as organizational depth arms. All three of those pitchers have had stints on a team’s 40-man roster in the past, but none has gotten to the MLB level.

File is coming off a 4.70 ERA between the top two minor league levels in the Seattle farm system. He’s a starter who owns a 4.33 ERA over seven seasons in the minors. Go was a closer in his native South Korea. He signed a two-year, $4.5MM contract with the Padres over the 2023-24 offseason. Go failed to break camp and was quickly traded to the Marlins as a salary offset in the Luis Arraez deal. He has kicked around the upper minors over the past two years, including 20 appearances in the Detroit system a year ago. Charles is a 29-year-old reliever with a 98 MPH fastball who has never been able to find the strike zone. He has pitched in the A’s and Baltimore systems and spent the 2025 campaign in Mexico.

Blue Jays Continuing To Pursue Kyle Tucker

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The Blue Jays had already been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams before signing NPB star Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60MM contract over the weekend. Okamoto joins Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers as significant free agent acquisitions. They’ve also been one of the clubs most frequently tied to the top two free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette.

There has been plenty of speculation that the Jays could be Tucker’s eventual landing spot. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote yesterday that two of his sources pegged Toronto as the favorite for the market’s top player. Meanwhile, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports this evening that the Jays are making a stronger push for Tucker than they had earlier in the winter. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet adds that the sides have had recent conversations, though he suggests the door remains open to Tucker or Bichette. Toronto’s interest in Tucker stretches back to the beginning of the offseason; he visited the club’s Spring Training facility in Dunedin on December 3.

RosterResource calculates the Jays’ payroll around $280MM, which is already $40MM above where they opened the 2025 season. Their luxury tax estimate sits at $308MM, more than $20MM north of last year’s season-ending tax number. They’re above the $304MM mark that represents the top tier of penalization. That already has them on track to pay around $30MM in luxury taxes, more than all but four teams (the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies) paid last season. Any future spending is taxed at a 90% clip on the average annual value. A hypothetical $35MM AAV for Tucker would come with a $31.5MM tax on top of it.

[Related Poll: Will Jays Add Another Bat?]

It’s unclear how much of a deterrent the tax obligations are for the Jays. They’re already into uncharted financial waters after coming a few inches away from their first World Series in three decades. The Rogers ownership group and the front office are clearly committed to a win-now posture. George Springer, Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho will all be free agents next offseason. That’s a lot of money coming off the books but also four key contributors whom they’re not guaranteed to have back in 2027, which should only increase the motivation to make another run this year.

Tucker, a career .273/.358/.507 hitter, is the best offensive player available. He’d step into an everyday right field role, pushing Anthony Santander to left. The Jays would have Springer as their primary designated hitter. Okamoto and Addison Barger could play either third base or factor into the corner outfield. It wouldn’t leave much playing time for Nathan Lukes, who’d be a speculative trade candidate. Lukes is coming off a solid season (.255/.323/.407 with 12 homers) but isn’t the kind of player who’ll prevent teams from making a run at a star.

General manager Ross Atkins spoke in generalities this morning about the team’s diligence in looking for continued ways to improve (link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Atkins noted that any “additions at this point start to cut away playing time from players that we feel are very good major league pieces.” While it’s not a given that they’ll make any moves, that’d seemingly point toward them only strongly pursuing impact talent rather than targeting marginal upgrades over role players.

If the Jays were to land Tucker, that’d almost certainly close the door on a reunion with Bichette. One team signing the top three free agents in an offseason is essentially without precedent, and adding both players would push Toronto’s luxury tax number well above $350MM. Bannon indeed suggests that while the Jays aren’t out of the running for Bichette, a new deal with their longtime shortstop looks less likely after the Okamoto signing.

Playing Okamoto and/or Barger regularly at third base pushes Ernie Clement to second, where Bichette would probably be penciled in if he heads back to Rogers Centre. The bigger deterrent may simply be a reluctance on the team’s part to make a long-term commitment to Bichette. Bannon writes that a reunion could be more likely if the infielder settles for a shorter deal that allows him to opt out after the first season.

Angels Sign Kirby Yates

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January 6: Los Angeles officially announced the signing on Tuesday evening. Their 40-man roster count climbs to 38.

December 30: The Angels have reportedly agreed to a one-year, $5MM contract with free agent reliever Kirby Yates. The veteran right-hander is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Yates gives the Angels yet another veteran reliever with some closing experience who’s in need of a rebound — in his case, ahead of what’ll be his age-39 season. The Halos will hope to finally get a full workload out of Robert Stephenson in the final season of his three-year, $33MM contract. They’ve also signed former Jays closer Jordan Romano and veteran reliever Drew Pomeranz to low-cost, one-year contracts this offseason as well.

If healthy — a major caveat, given the injury history in question here — Yates could be the best of the bunch. The two-time All-Star led the NL with 41 saves back in 2019 and has twice posted full seasons with an ERA shy of 1.20, including as recently as the 2024 season with Texas.

Since an age-30 breakout with the Padres, the late-blooming Yates has pitched 355 innings with a 2.84 earned run average, 97 saves, 65 holds and only 13 blown save opportunities. He’s fanned a whopping 35.1% of his opponents along the way (backed by a huge 15.7% swinging-strike rate) and walked 9.6% of the batters he’s faced. Coincidentally enough, the Angels were the team from which the Padres claimed Yates off waivers. They’d picked Yates up themselves via waivers the prior October. He pitched only one inning as an Angel and was tagged for two runs.

Yates now returns for a second stint with the Angels. The signing reunites him with veteran pitching coach Mike Maddux, who was Yates’ pitching coach with the ’24 Rangers. Yates saved 33 games and posted an immaculate 1.17 ERA with a 36% strikeout rate that season.

That performance was enough to land him a hearty $13MM guarantee on a one-year deal with the Dodgers. But while Yates landed the first World Series ring of his career, the marriage didn’t go particularly well. He was thrice placed on the injured list — twice for hamstring strains and once due to a lower back injury — and pitched only 41 1/3 innings. The veteran righty’s 5.23 earned run average was one of the worst marks of his career, and his 92.8 mph average four-seam velocity was his lowest since 2013. Yates still punched out an excellent 29.6% of his opponents, but he was doomed by home runs, yielding an average of 1.96 round-trippers per nine frames.

While Yates has typically been excellent when healthy, he’s had his share of injuries. He pitched only 4 1/3 innings in 2020 due to bone spurs in his elbow. He signed with the Blue Jays in free agency that offseason but never pitched an inning for Toronto. He required Tommy John surgery at the end of spring training. From 2020-22, Yates pitched only 11 1/3 innings in the majors.

The Angels will bet on Yates’ track record and hope for better help. Between Yates, Stephenson, Romano and Pomeranz, they certainly aren’t lacking talent at the back end of the bullpen — but there’s a clear lack of consistency and durability. They’ll hope to add flamethrower Ben Joyce to that mix at some point this season, though his timetable for a return from last May’s surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder remains murky.

It’s not entirely clear where the Yates signing takes the Angels’ payroll. RosterResource projected them for a payroll around $172MM this morning, but that was before the Angels and Anthony Rendon agreed to defer the payment of the final year and $38MM on his contract for a reported three to five seasons. Details surrounding that still-fresh arrangement have yet to surface in full, but it’s clear that the Angels are quite a bit south of the roughly $206MM payroll figure at which they ended the 2025 campaign.

Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News first reported that Yates was signing a one-year deal with the Angels. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $5MM guarantee.

Phillies To Sign Tucker Davidson To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies and left-hander Tucker Davidson have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon doesn’t mention whether or not the ISE Baseball client will be in big league camp in spring training.

Davidson, 30 in March, pitched in the majors from 2020 to 2024. He logged 129 2/3 innings for the Braves, Angels, Royals and Orioles, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine. He had better minor league numbers in that span, tossing 219 Triple-A frames with a 3.86 ERA, striking out 24.5% of batters faced against an 8% walk rate while also getting grounders on about half the balls in play he allowed.

With the lack of big league success, he exhausted his option seasons in that span. Instead of sticking around in North America for minor league opportunities, he took an offer to go overseas. Going into 2025, he signed with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization. That stint in the KBO seemed to go well, based on the numbers. He made 22 starts for the Giants with a 3.65 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate.

Despite those decent results, the Giants decided to make a switch in August. They signed Vince Velasquez and bumped Davidson off their roster. Davidson then landed a minor league deal with the Brewers. He made six starts for their Triple-A club with a 4.68 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. His fastball averaged under 90 miles per hour but he also featured a splitter, sinker, slider and curveball.

The Phillies have a bit of rotation uncertainty going into the season. They will have Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker in four spots. Zack Wheeler will certainly be in there if he’s healthy but he’s recovering from surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and may not be ready by Opening Day.

If Wheeler is on the shelf or anyone else gets hurt, Andrew Painter could step up. However, he still has no major league experience and posted a 5.40 ERA in Triple-A last year. Other inexperienced depth options on the roster include Yoniel Curet, Jean Cabrera and Alan Rangel. Davidson gives the Phils some more depth without taking up a roster spot.

Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images

Giants Designate Justin Dean For Assignment

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The Giants have designated outfielder Justin Dean for assignment, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. That’s the corresponding 40-man roster move for their signing of right-hander Tyler Mahle.

Dean, 29, has never played for the Giants. He was only just claimed off waivers from the Dodgers in early November, shortly after he won the World Series with Los Angeles. The Dodgers mostly used him as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. He played in 18 games last year, making his major league debut, but only made two plate appearances. He then appeared in 13 postseason games without a plate appearance.

In the minors, Dean has been good for double-digit steals in each season of his career going back to 2018, with the exception of the canceled 2020 season. However, he’s never reached double digits in the home run department. He has 2,038 minor league plate appearances from 2021 to 2025 with a solid 12.1% walk rate but a high strikeout rate of 28.6%.

There was some recent improvement in terms of the punchouts, as he only struck out in 23.6% of his minor league plate appearances in 2025, a noticeable improvement compared to prior years. That helped him slash .289/.378/.431 for a 110 wRC+ in Triple-A last year while stealing 27 bases in just 90 games.

It’s the profile of a decent bench outfielder, as a floor. The Giants were intrigued enough to grab him off the wire a couple of months ago but he’s now been squeezed off their roster. Perhaps they are hoping he can be passed through waivers this time around, which would allow them to keep him as non-roster depth. He doesn’t have three years of big league service time nor a previous career outright, so he wouldn’t have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.

He does have a full slate of options, so perhaps he will appeal to other organizations looking for a depth piece of the speed-and-defense variety. He’ll be in DFA limbo for a week at most. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so the Giants could take five days to field trade interest.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Rockies Interested In Veteran Rotation Additions

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The Rockies are looking for a few veterans to eat innings in their rotation, general manager Josh Byrnes tells Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “We’ve played out scenarios where we would attempt to bring in two guys who can stabilize that area — who can not only pitch well but know how to give us some bulk innings, which any team needs,” Byrnes said. “That’s probably how we’re trying to map it out. There is a lot of unknown with what pops up in trades or free agency, but we need to add in that area.”

It’s a sensible target for the club. The Colorado rotation was historically bad in 2025. The club’s starters had a combined earned run average of 6.65. According to a post from Harding back in October, that was the highest rotation ERA of any club since the stat became official in 1913. Coors Field obviously plays a role in the struggles but the numbers were bad even compared to previous Colorado clubs. The group was further thinned out at season’s end when Germán Márquez became a free agent. In short, there’s nowhere to go but up.

Right now, the club projects to have a couple of experienced arms in the mix. Kyle Freeland is going into his tenth big league season and is still under contract through 2026, with a conditional player option for 2027. Ryan Feltner has 339 2/3 innings under his belt. Those two have experience but don’t provide much in terms of optimism. Feltner has a career 5.19 ERA with average ground ball and walk rates but subpar strikeout numbers. Freeland’s ERA has been around 5.00 for three straight years now.

Antonio Senzatela was moved to the bullpen in August. Manager Warren Schaeffer said in September that the club planned to keep him there going forward, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Senzatela is signed through 2026 with a $14MM club option for 2027. Given his 6.65 ERA last year and the fact that there’s no buyout on that option, it will surely be declined.

Beyond Freeland and Feltner, the other rotation options are lacking in experience. Chase Dollander came into 2025 as one of the top pitching prospects in the league but he posted a 6.52 ERA in 98 innings in his rookie season. The 40-man roster also features Tanner Gordon, McCade Brown, Carson Palmquist, Gabriel Hughes and Bradley Blalock but everyone in that group has fewer than 110 big league innings pitched. Hughes hasn’t yet pitched in the big leagues. The other four names in that cluster have ERAs north of 7.00.

Given that context, adding a few veterans would make plenty of sense. They could stabilize the group and give the decision-makers some freedom in keeping the younger guys in the minors until they’re ready.

Getting those veterans to Colorado has usually been a challenge. Given the hitter-friendly environment up at altitude, free agent pitchers generally don’t want to sign with the Rockies. Looking at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, which has data going back to 2006, the club has only thrice signed a free agent pitcher to a deal with an eight-figure average annual value in that span. They signed Jorge De La Rosa to a three-year, $32MM deal back in 2010, then a one-year, $15MM deal with Jeff Francis in 2012, followed by a three-year, $52MM deal for Wade Davis in 2017.

Byrnes provided a hint of optimism, for what it’s worth. “There are different tiers of free agency,” the GM said. “It’s kind of interesting, without naming names. But with guys on shorter deals, I think there’s some intrigue. Everyone around the game knows it’s harder to pitch in Colorado, but I think a couple of guys want to take on that challenge, and we’ve brought in a pitching group that will turn over every rock to get at it and solve this thing.”

Without Byrnes providing any details, it can only be guessed what kind of free agents he’s talking about. It would make some sense for a pitcher towards the end of his career to be more game for the experiment, since he wouldn’t have to worry so much about a poor performance tanking his future earning power. That could align with the kind of short-term deal Byrnes alluded to.

Given the state of the club, the Rockies aren’t going to target the top available free agents like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen. But veterans like Wade Miley, Miles Mikolas, Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, Patrick Corbin or Martín Pérez make speculative sense. They’re all 35 or older and will be looking at one-year offers in free agency.

The Rockies could also try to bring in starters via trade, though they don’t have a ton to offer other clubs. Any guys on their roster with trade value would ideally be flipped for prospects or controllable players. Perhaps they could take on an undesirable contract from another club, though that path also comes with challenges. The Blue Jays and Mets may be looking to move on from José Berríos and Kodai Senga, respectively, but grabbing someone like that would require the Rockies to take on a notable salary during rebuilding years. Berríos is slated to make $66MM over the next three years and Senga $28MM over the next two. Perhaps those clubs would be willing to eat some money to facilitate a deal but Berríos has an eight-team no-trade clause and Senga can block trades to ten teams. Given the state of the Rockies and the challenges of pitching there, it seems fair to assume that the Rockies would be blocked by both guys.

Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images

Astros Notes: Valdez, CBT, Infield, Brown

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The Astros came into the offseason clearly needing rotation upgrades, due to a variety of injuries and the departure of Framber Valdez to free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it always seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That’s seems even more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss to their starting pitching group. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez in an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez is still available but also spoke about him as though he’s already gone.

“Well, look, Framber’s still out there,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know that we had to get some starting pitching. So, we’ve been able to acquire three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. Us getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, that was also big. So, we added those three guys. When you’re losing Framber — he’s still on the market, he’s out there — but if you don’t get him, of course, you’re losing those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors as well.”

It’s not especially surprising that things are playing out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents of this winter’s class. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a $150MM guarantee over five years, $30MM in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend huge money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85MM extension for Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.

Beyond their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly came into this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had enough wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a decent number but well below the projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year deal. Houston had to give up a couple of notable prospects to get Burrows but he’s still making the league minimum.

RosterResource currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of about $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s base CBT threshold of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the line without going over, though they ended up surging over the line in each of the past two years.

Going into 2024, they were a bit under the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Suddenly feeling the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season but then jumped at the chance to pick up Carlos Correa, going into CBT territory in the process.

Once again, they have positioned themselves just under the tax, though final status isn’t calculated until the end of the season. That means that they could decide to pay the tax once again for the right opportunity.

“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams but you’ve seen over the years we’ll spend the money when we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive when we have to be.”

Taking the comments of Brown and Crane together, it seems possible that the Astros may have already made their most significant moves of the winter. A few depth transactions would still be likely but the roster might be mostly set. It’s theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would open up a bit of a playing time logjam and also potentially some payroll space, but Brown also downplayed that.

“I think there’s a chance where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You have guys that may play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you when you want to give guys rest. So, we’re looking at this in many ways. But, you know, we still are listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players. We’ll still listen.”

The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes potentially splitting time at the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025 but didn’t grade out well there. Yordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo.

Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded infield picture and the tight budget, there’s an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the whole group and portioning out playing time with some off-days to keep everyone fresh.

Perhaps a trade will come together, given Brown’s admission that they will listen when other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to again shoot over the CBT line. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter Brown, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier with guys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, McCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix for starts.

Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will broach the subject at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to heat up again. Look, he’s got Boras, so it won’t be easy. But at the end of the day, we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”

It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension prior to the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he lated hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras clients do sometimes sign extensions but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.

What also complicates matters is that Brown has taken his performance up quite a bit since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the bigs. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

Hunter is now three years from free agency, meaning his earning power could be pushing towards the upper levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension going into 2023, when he was between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could be reasonably in that range and would only get higher as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would surely be wise to get something doon sooner rather than later.

A big extension for Brown has the potential for increasing the club’s CBT number. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value. Perhaps the Astros would like to first sign Hunter to a one-year deal for 2026, where he’s projected for a $5.7MM salary. They could then have the extension start in 2027 so that it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some future CBT room.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

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