The Padres have re-signed Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2027 season, per a team announcement. The terms of the contract are not yet known.
More to come.
Yankees To Sign Ryan Yarbrough
The Yankees and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough are nearing an agreement on a one-year, major league contract per a report from Robert Murray of Fansided. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the deal is pending a physical. The specifics of the contract are not yet known.
Assuming the deal makes it over the finish line, it’ll be a starkly different offseason experience than Yarbrough had last year, when he lingered on the market until February before catching on with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal. He opted out of that deal just before Opening Day, which led him to a major league contract with the Yankees for the 2025 campaign. It was a decent enough year for the lefty in the Bronx, as he pitched to a 4.36 ERA across 64 innings of work split between eight starts and 11 relief appearances.
That’s roughly league average (94 ERA+) production on the surface, and more advanced metrics are something of a mixed bag but generally support that sentiment. His 5.06 FIP is well below par, but much of that has to do with an inflated home run rate. Yarbrough allowed 13 homers in just 64 innings of work despite an entirely manageable 6.9% barrel rate that was largely in line with his career norms. Yarbrough’s work in New York actually tied a career high (20.8%) for strikeout rate and saw him limit walks to a decent 7.2% clip. His 4.14 SIERA clocks in right around league average, as does his 4.30 xFIP.
While the specifics of the contract aren’t yet clear, re-upping for another year certainly seems to make sense for both sides. Signing this early in the offseason offers Yarbrough a level of certainty he wasn’t afforded last year while allowing the Yankees to build some depth into their rotation mix that will surely prove valuable headed into 2026. While the Yankees have a deep group of starting options with Gerrit Cole expected back from Tommy John surgery early next year plus Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Cam Schlittler, it’s not hard to see why the team could use some additional depth.
Cole and Rodon both won’t be ready for Opening Day, while Clarke Schmidt is unlikely to be a factor until late in the year after his own Tommy John surgery. Gil appears to be healthy but has a lengthy injury history that could make relying on him for 30 starts a tall order as well. With so much uncertainty among that group, the addition of Yarbrough offers a steady veteran to offer roughly average production when filling those gaps. Yarbrough is more than comfortable bouncing between the rotation and bullpen after doing so throughout virtually his entire career, and having him available as a long relief arm could be valuable for a bullpen that figures to be searching for innings help after losing Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.
Whatever the cost of Yarbrough’s contract ends up being, it should serve as no impediment to the Yankees as they look to fill out the rest of their roster. The club has its work cut out for it this winter, as they’ll need to replace Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, and Amed Rosario (along with Williams and Weaver) as they head into free agency on top of whatever other upgrades the club is interested in making to its roster. Given Schmidt’s injury, perhaps even the addition of another starter could be on the table if the team wants to have young pitching to dangle in trade talks or have the luxury of being patient with Cole as he gets his elbow ready for game action next year.
Nick Sandlin Elects Free Agency
November 17: Sandlin has indeed rejected his outright assignment and elected free agency, according to an announcement from the Blue Jays.
November 15: The Blue Jays outrighted Nick Sandlin off the 40-man roster, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Sandlin has over three years of service time and will surely elect free agency in the coming days.
It’s effectively an early non-tender of the righty reliever. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Sandlin for a $2MM salary if he were tendered an arbitration contract. That’s not a huge amount, but the Jays soured on his future enough that they didn’t want to lock him into a middle relief role going into next season.
This drops their roster count from 38 to 37. Teams need to decide which eligible prospects they want to keep out of the Rule 5 draft by Tuesday evening. The Jays have an extra spot available than they would have had if they’d waited until Friday’s non-tender deadline to make the cut.
Toronto acquired Sandlin as a secondary piece of last winter’s Andrés Giménez trade. The Southern Mississippi product had pitched to a 3.27 earned run average over parts of four seasons in Cleveland. Sandlin never had great control, but he missed a good number of bats behind a plus slider and a promising splitter. The Jays hoped he could take on a higher-leverage role after being more of a sixth/seventh inning type in a loaded Cleveland bullpen.
Injuries kept that from happening. Sandlin went down three weeks into the season with a lat strain. He returned in mid-June but was shut back down after nine appearances by elbow inflammation. The latter injury ended his year. Sandlin tossed 16 1/3 innings overall. He gave up seven runs (four earned) with 16 strikeouts and eight walks. He recorded five holds and a save but also surrendered three leads.
Sandlin’s stuff was diminished. He averaged career lows on both his slider (78.4 MPH) and four-seam fastball (91.4). While he has never been a flamethrower, his heater was in the 94-95 MPH range during his rookie season and sat between 92-93 last year. Other teams evidently share the Jays’ concerns about the diminished velocity. Sandlin cleared waivers, suggesting no club wanted to take a flier and tender him at that projected $2MM price.
The Opener: Naylor, Mariners, Nationals
As the first major piece of the offseason puzzle shakes loose, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Naylor nearing deal:
The big news from this weekend was the Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor getting together on what’s expected to be a five-year deal in the range of $90MM-$100MM. That Naylor re-upped in Seattle is hardly a surprise given that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto had made it extremely clear that retaining Naylor was a “priority” for his front office headed into the winter. Naylor himself was candid about enjoying his stay in town as well, as well. Even if it was an expected outcome, however, a deal coming together so quickly and at a level that seems likely to meet or slightly exceed MLBTR’s five-year $90MM prediction for his eventual contract seems like a good sign for the players on the market this winter. The deal figures to be made official at some point in the near future, and a more specific breakdown of the contract structure is likely to be revealed in the coming days as well.
2. What’s next for Seattle?
Now that Seattle has landed their top priority of the winter, it’s fair to wonder what a team that came just one game from the World Series this season will do moving forward. It would make sense for them to continue looking for ways to bolster their infield, given that Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez both hit free agency alongside Naylor to open up holes at second and third base. The Mariners are also known to be looking into the high leverage relief market this winter. One other question would be about the future of Harry Ford, who showed himself to be ready for the big leagues but is blocked from everyday playing time by Cal Raleigh behind the plate. Perhaps Ford could be tabbed as the team’s backup catcher and get semi-regular starts elsewhere in the lineup, though it also seems as though a trade may not be off the table.
3. Nationals to introduce Blake Butera:
As noted by Bobby Blanco of MASN, newly-minted Nationals manager Blake Butera will be available to the media later today in an introductory press conference scheduled for 1:30pm local time. Butera, 33, is the youngest manager in MLB as he steps into his new role and is arguably among the most unorthodox in a sea of unusual managerial hires this winter. President of baseball operations Paul Toboni will presumably be in attendance as well and has spoken effusively of his new skipper in previous comments to the media. Prior to being hired by Toboni, Butera had served as the Rays’ senior director of player development and was a manager in the minor leagues for four seasons.
Mariners To Re-Sign Josh Naylor
The Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor are in the final stages of working out a five-year contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The deal will become official when Naylor passes a physical, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. WHDH’s Ari Alexander reports that the contract is in the range of $90MM-$100MM. Naylor is represented by ISE Baseball.
Assuming the deal crosses the finish line, Naylor becomes the first headline name of the 2025-26 free agent class to land a new contract, just two weeks after the World Series concluded. It counts as a surprise to see any major free agent sign their next contract this quickly, even before the players who received qualifying offers have made their decisions. (Naylor was notably not eligible for a QO, since he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners during the season.)
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Naylor 12th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and the five-year term matches our projection that Naylor would receive a five-year, $90MM deal. The five-year length of Naylor’s contract also matches the longest free agent deal the Mariners have given out during Jerry Dipoto’s decade in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations department. The M’s inked Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM pact during the 2021-22 offseason, and Ray’s contract and Yusei Kikuchi’s four-year, $56MM deal in January 2019 were the only free agent deals of the Dipoto era to exceed even two years.
There are multiple reasons behind the lack of big free agent strikes. The Mariners’ infamous 10-year, $240MM deal with Robinson Cano from December 2013 could’ve led to some organizational wariness over blockbuster signings. Since John Stanton’s ownership group bought the team in 2016, the M’s have only once finished a season with a top-10 payroll, and are only moving back into the middle range of spending league-wide. There is also “Trader Jerry’s” own personal preference to build rosters via trades rather than free agents, as Dipoto has become known for being very active in negotiating swaps. Players may have had misgivings about joining a Mariners team that has two just postseason appearances in the last 24 seasons, and hitters in particular weren’t exactly lining up to play in a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment.
With all of this in mind, there was such mutual interest between Naylor and the Mariners that it certainly seemed like the team was very willing to stretch beyond its usual free agent comfort zone. Dipoto was open in telling the media — including Darragh McDonald on the MLBTR Podcast back in September — that re-signing Naylor was a priority for the organization, and Naylor himself was just as effusive in how much he enjoyed playing in Seattle.
Considering how Naylor performed after arriving in the Pacific Northwest, it’s easy to see why both sides moved quickly on a long-term deal. Naylor was already enjoying a strong season with the Diamondbacks, but with Arizona falling out of contention, the D’Backs dealt the slugger a week before the trade deadline, landing rookie left-hander Brandyn Garcia and pitching prospect Ashton Izzi.
Naylor proceeded to hit .299/.341/.490 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases (without a single caught stealing) over 210 regular-season plate appearances for the M’s, and he followed that up with a .340/.392/.574 slash line over 51 postseason PA. Adding this type of pop into the lineup was perhaps the primary reason the Mariners won the AL West, and then outlasted the Tigers in the ALDS before falling just short of the first World Series berth in franchise history in losing the ALCS to the Blue Jays in seven games.
This kind of success made the Mariners want to more or less bring the band back together for 2026, which was no small feat since Naylor, Jorge Polanco, and Eugenio Suarez (among others) were all set for free agency. Re-signing Naylor is the first major domino to fall, and it now remains to be seen if either Polanco or Suarez can also be retained in the wake of the team’s sizeable commitment in Naylor. The M’s entered the offseason with approximately $34MM to spend, according to Dipoto’s statements after the playoff run was over, with more money potentially available at the deadline if more in-season reinforcements were required.
For now, the Mariners and their fans can at least enjoy the idea of Naylor suiting up at T-Mobile Park for the next five seasons. Naylor turns 29 in June, so his contract will run through his age-33 season. There has been some league-wide hesitancy in recent years about giving major contracts to first base-only players (especially as those players enter their 30s), yet Naylor’s production outside of just his stretch run with the Mariners makes him a solid choice for a five-year investment.
Naylor’s 128 wRC+ in 2025 was a career high, narrowly topping the 127 wRC+ he posted with the Guardians in 2023. Since emerging as a regular with Cleveland in 2022, Naylor has hit .275/.336/.464 with 88 home runs, translating to a 123 wRC+ and 9.9 fWAR over the last four seasons. His barrel and hard-hit ball rates are okay but uninspiring, and his walk rate from 2022-25 was below average, so Naylor doesn’t exactly fit the profile of a classic slugging first baseman.
His biggest offensive weapon is his ability to make contact, as Naylor is among the league’s more difficult players to strike out though he is prone to chasing pitches off the plate. There is also the amusing oddity of Naylor’s 30-for-32 record at stealing bases in 2025, which speaks to his skill as an opportunistic baserunner despite being one of the slowest players in baseball. Defensively, public metrics are mixed on his glovework. The Outs Above Average metric has him solidly above average with +12 OAA, while his -6 Defensive Runs Saved paints a less-flattering picture of his work at first base.
Naylor joins Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez as Seattle players locked up through at least the 2029 season, and Rodriguez’s deal could actually extend through 2039 depending on a complicated set of options following the 2029 campaign. These three All-Star position players, veteran righty Luis Castillo, and a core of homegrown starters (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller) have become the building blocks of an AL West title team that looks to remain competitive for at least the rest of the decade.
Though many pundits — including three of us at MLBTR — predicted Naylor would re-sign the Mariners, the fact that he has found a new deal so suddenly creates an interesting ripple effect on the rest of the free agent class. Teams in need of lineup help have one less big bat to consider, and the first base market in particular has now lost a name many teams would’ve considered as perhaps a preferred alternative to Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakami, or Kazuma Okamoto. Murakami or Okamoto could be deployed at third base and Cody Bellinger could be viewed as a first baseman or outfielder in equal measure, depending on a suitor’s needs.
Inset photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear — Imagn Images
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat
Mariners Acquire Robinson Ortiz From Dodgers
The Mariners and Dodgers each announced that Seattle has acquired left-hander Robinson Ortiz in exchange for minor league right-hander Tyler Gough.
Neither player has any big league experience, but the trade is likely more about the Dodgers’ desire to clear a spot on their 40-man roster. Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and Friday is the non-tender deadline, making for a very busy upcoming week of roster churning.
Interestingly, it was only 10 days ago that Los Angeles selected Ortiz’s contract to the 40-man roster, but the Dodgers have now changed course and sent Ortiz to Seattle. L.A. now has 38 places filled on its 40-man, while the Mariners have at least 39 spots addressed and potentially a full 40 depending on when Josh Naylor’s new contract is made official.
Ortiz (who turns 26 in January) had spent his entire pro career in the Dodgers organization prior to today’s trade. Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and multiple injury problems, Ortiz pitched only 22 2/3 innings over a five-year span covering the 2020-24 seasons, but the 2025 campaign represented some return to relative normalcy. The southpaw posted a 2.73 ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate over 59 1/3 combined innings at three different minor league levels, with Ortiz making his debuts at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels last year.
A nasty slider/sinker combo has led to a lot of strikeouts for Ortiz, though control has continued to be an issue, as evidenced by his 13.2% walk rate in 2025. Seattle is notably thin in left-handed pitching, as Gabe Speier currently represents the only lefty slated to be part of the Mariners’ bullpen mix next year. Ortiz adds a bit more depth in that department, and there appears to be plenty of upside for Ortiz as a relief weapon if he can cut back on the free passes.
Gough was a ninth-round pick for the Mariners in the 2022 draft, and he posted a 4.66 ERA over 125 2/3 innings at A-level Modesto in 2023-24, starting 32 of his 33 career games. A Tommy John surgery in September 2024 has since kept Gough off the mound, though the usual TJ recovery timeline should put the right-hander in line to be ready for a healthy Spring Training come February.
Emilio Pagan Receiving Interest From “At Least 10 Teams”
Free agent reliever Emilio Pagan is a popular figure now that the market has opened, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that “at least 10 teams” have reached out to Pagan and his reps at the Ballengee Group. A return to the Reds is also a possibility since Wittenmyer says the two sides have had some talks, though Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall didn’t give any hints on the subject.
“I don’t want to say yes or no. I don’t know,” Krall said about a potential new contract with Pagan. “I loved Emilio. He was great for our club. I would absolutely be open to bringing him back. It just depends on how everything fits together.”
Krall made similar comments praising Pagan back in October, and the reliever also expressed his own desire to return to the Reds. Despite this mutual interest, Wittenmyer feels the amount of league-wide interest in Pagan could push his price tag beyond the Reds’ comfort zone. Krall has stated that Cincinnati’s 2026 payroll will roughly match its 2025 payroll, which sat in the $116MM-$119MM range by season’s end.
With a limited budget and multiple roster needs to address, Wittenmyer believes the Reds will again “be waiting out the market for value buys” in free agency. This could mean that Pagan might’ve signed elsewhere by the time the Reds are prepared to more fully dig into the market, or the club might seek out less-expensive bullpen reinforcements.
It was a little over two years ago that the Reds signed Pagan to a two-year, $16MM contract in his previous trip through free agency. The deal allowed Pagan to opt out last winter, but he chose to remain under contract and take his $8MM salary for 2025 — an expected move given how the right-hander posted a 4.50 ERA over 38 innings during an injury-shortened 2024 campaign.
This past season, however, saw Pagan stay healthy and deliver a fine platform year. Pagan posted a 2.88 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate over 68 2/3 frames, and he saved 32 of his 38 chances as the Reds’ closer. His 8.1% walk rate was a little below average and Pagan received a lot of batted-ball luck, as his .200 BABIP in 2025 perhaps balanced out his unlucky .351 BABIP from 2024. That said, his xwOBA dropped from .307 in 2024 to .267 this year, and Pagan’s signature four-seamer was still humming along at a 95.7mph velocity, nicely setting up his devastating splitter.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Pagan 46th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected the righty to land another two-year, $16MM deal. The contract reflects Pagan’s age (he turns 35 in May), his up-and-down tenure in Cincinnati, and how some teams may not want to pursue a reliever who has been so notoriously homer-prone throughout his career.
While Wittenmyer’s report indicates there’s obviously still plenty of teams that do have Pagan on their list of targets, it is fair to say that Pagan may not necessarily be the top choice for clubs in need of bullpen help. Some teams may not view him as a closer at all, while others could see him as a backup option if they can’t land one of the more high-profile closers available. Depending on how things play out or depending on how long it takes the likes of Edwin Diaz or Robert Suarez to find their next contract, there might be an opening for the Reds and Pagan if the reliever gets tired of waiting and decides to pivot back to a familiar and comfortable location.
Astros Notes: Hader, Alvarez, Arrighetti
Astros general manager Dana Brown shared some injury updates earlier this week at the GM Meetings, including the rather troubling news that Isaac Paredes is no guarantee to be ready for Opening Day. Brown provided some more positive news with Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle (multiple links) on some of the many other Astros players who missed significant time during the club’s injury-plagued 2025 campaign, as all of Josh Hader, Yordan Alvarez, and Spencer Arrighetti are expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Hader’s season was ended in early August by a right capsule sprain in his right shoulder. There was some initial hope that Hader could potentially return during the playoffs, but he still hadn’t started throwing by season’s end, so it seemed unlikely that the closer would’ve been available even if Houston had reached the postseason.
Brown didn’t yet have a timetable on Hader’s recovery at his end-of-season press conference, but said this week that Hader has now thrown off a mound three times. The plan is for Hader to have his regular winter throwing program and “hopefully, we’ll get him ramped up sometime early to mid-February…he’s on course to come back and be there for Opening Day,” Brown said.
As Rome noted, losing Hader ended up devastating Houston’s relief corps. Hader had been the anchor of the bullpen, posting a 2.05 ERA, 36.9% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate across 52 2/3 innings while closing down 28 of 29 save opportunities. While Bryan Abreu performed respectably well in Hader’s place, losing a star closer further thinned out a bullpen that was already missing other arms due to injury, and it added to Houston’s mountain of health woes.
Having Alvarez for only 48 games was perhaps the most impactful of all the Astros’ injuries. The three-time All-Star was sidelined mostly by a hand sprain that was eventually revealed as a finger fracture, and persistent hand discomfort kept Alvarez out of action from early May to late August. While he posted great numbers upon his returning, Alvarez was shut down again by a left ankle sprain in mid-September that left him unable to even resume basic running or hitting drills by the end of the season.
The good news is that Brown said Alvarez should have “a normal offseason,” and is back to running at around “65-70 percent” of his usual capability. Speed is not exactly a huge aspect of Alvarez’s game and he should continue to be Houston’s primary DH in 2026, but keeping an elite bat healthy is naturally a huge factor in the Astros’ hopes of future success.
Arrighetti was limited to seven starts and 35 1/3 innings in 2025, as he missed four months of action after his right thumb was fractured by a batted ball during batting practice. That fluky injury was followed up by a bout of elbow inflammation that shut Arrighetti down for good in early September. There was some concern raised when Arrighetti was set to go for a second opinion on his elbow, but it would appear as though he has gotten a clean bill of health for regular offseason prep.
For now, Arrighetti is penciled into a spot in Houston’s Opening Day rotation, though Brown has been open about the Astros’ desire to add to their pitching staff. With Framber Valdez potentially leaving in free agency and several other Astros pitchers besides Arrighetti also on the mend, acquiring another starter would help clear up some of the uncertainty surrounding the pitching staff.
Tom Timmermann Passes Away
Former big league pitcher Tom Timmermann passed away this past week at the age of 85, according to multiple reports. The right-hander spent parts of six seasons in the majors.
Timmermann was signed by the Tigers and made his pro debut in 1960 at the age of 20. He’d go on to spend nearly a decade bouncing around the minor leagues, working as both a starter and a reliever, until he eventually made his big league debut with Detroit on June 18, 1969. He recorded 1 1/3 scoreless innings in his debut to kick off what was a strong season out of the bullpen in his rookie year.
After pitching to a 2.70 ERA in 46 2/3 innings out of the bullpen, Timmermann made his first career MLB start in the penultimate game of Detroit’s season. He managed a complete game where he surrendered three runs to the Orioles but came away with the win after striking out future Hall of Famer Frank Robinson and teammate Boog Powell as they wrapped up brilliant campaigns that saw them both finish in the top 3 of AL MVP voting that year.
Even after his impressive finish to the 1969 season, Timmermann didn’t manage to break into the Tigers rotation right away. He spent the 1970 and 1971 seasons largely in the bullpen and pitched to roughly average results across 169 1/3 innings, though he did manage to record 31 saves along the way. In 1970, he set the team record for appearances by a pitcher with 61 and was named Tiger of the Year by Detroit’s chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
It was in 1972 when Timmermann finally got the opportunity to start in the majors on a regular basis. Then in his age-32 season, Timmermann started 25 of his 34 games that year and pitched quite well with a 2.89 ERA in 149 2/3 innings of work. It was a solid enough performance, but it wasn’t enough to earn the right-hander another look in the rotation for the 1973 season. The Tigers put him back in the bullpen, though Timmermann’s chance to start would later come at the cost of his roster spot in Detroit. On June 15, nearly four years to the day after his big league debut, Timmermann was traded to Cleveland in exchange for future All-Star Ed Farmer.
The move to an eventual 90-loss club in Cleveland allowed Timmermann the opportunity to start, but he didn’t do very well with the change of scenery. The right-hander pitched to a 4.96 ERA across 33 appearances for the franchise during the 1973 and ’74 seasons. The last game of his major league career arrived on April 26, 1974, when he threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings of relief and was credited with a win over an Angels lineup that coincidentally included Robinson. Timmermann pitched at the Triple-A level for the Toledo Mud Hens and Oklahoma City 89ers to close out his season before calling it a career after the 1974 season.
In all, Timmermann recorded a 3.78 ERA in 548 innings of work at the big league level across six MLB seasons. He posted an even 35-35 record with 35 saves recorded in that time, and struck out 315 batters throughout his big league career. Though it wasn’t known until long after his big league career had come to a close, Timmermann was also the biological father of former big leaguer Phil Leftwich. Leftwich was born nearly a month to the day prior to Timmermann’s MLB debut but was put up for adoption as an infant, and the connection between the two wasn’t discovered until Leftwich (who pitched for the Angels in parts of three seasons from 1993 to 1996) was on the cusp of his own big league debut.
MLB Trade Rumors joins the rest of the baseball world in extending our condolences to Timmermann’s family, friends, and loved ones.
