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Astros To Sign Tatsuya Imai

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The Astros and right-hander Tatsuya Imai are reportedly in agreement on a three-year, $54MM contract that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. The NPB star will collect a $2MM signing bonus and $16MM salary next year. He’s owed respective $18MM salaries between 2027-28. Imai, a client of the Boras Corporation, would reportedly escalate his 2027 salary by $2MM apiece at reaching 80, 90 and 100 innings next year. His ’28 salary would also climb by $1MM at each of those thresholds, meaning the total value can jump another $9MM. Houston needs to finalize the contract and make a corresponding 40-man roster move by Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Lions will receive a posting fee based on Imai’s $54MM guarantee. The current system for international postings gives the original club 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything over $50MM. That works out to $9.975MM, so the Astros are on the hook for just under $64MM between the contract’s guaranteed money and the posting fee. If Imai opts out next season, Houston will have committed $27.975MM for one year of his services. The Astros would also owe a 15% posting fee to the Lions on any escalators that Imai unlocks if he doesn’t opt out.

Imai was one of the top starters available in free agency and coming off a career-best 1.92 ERA season with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It was reported several days ago that he was meeting with teams in-person in advance of his January 2 signing deadline. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles were among the clubs interested in signing him, so the Astros are a bit of a surprise destination.

We at MLBTR ranked Imai No. 7 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. This deal with Houston comes in at half the length of that projection, with around a third of the guaranteed money. It appeared that Imai had other offers on the table for longer terms but lower AAVs (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). The opt-outs in his deal with Houston allow him to try for a bigger contract in future offseasons if he can prove himself in MLB.

Imai is 27 years old (28 in May) and has pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 963 2/3 career NPB innings. He debuted in 2018 at age 20 and made 16 appearances (15 starts), but struggled with a 4.97 ERA. Those early struggles continued from 2019-20. In the pandemic season, Imai had a 6.13 ERA in 61 2/3 innings and walked more batters than he struck out, which resulted in him temporarily being moved to the bullpen. He rebounded in 2021, posting a 3.30 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with an improved strikeout rate, and he has stuck as a starting pitcher ever since.

That kicked off a run of dominance from 2022-25. After posting a 2.41 ERA in nine starts with the Lions in 2022, Imai followed up with a 2.30 ERA and a 24.4% strikeout rate in 133 innings in 2023. While he did walk 11.4% of hitters that year, his strikeout and walk numbers improved year over year from 2023-25. This year, he struck out 27.8% of hitters (highest among qualified NPB starters) and walked just 7.0%. His 20.7% K-BB rate was third-best in that league. Imai also did very well at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just six home runs all season (0.33 HR/9) and inducing groundballs 48.3% of the time. Overall, he enters the majors with a higher ceiling and much-improved control compared to his early career.

In terms of stuff, Imai profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 99 mph, and he also throws a slider, splitter, and changeup. His excellent performance from 2022-25 made him an attractive target in free agency, although some evaluators were concerned about his secondary stuff and past struggles with control. It seemed that industry opinion was mixed on whether he could succeed as a big-league starter, which resulted in the lower-than-expected guarantee.

At the time of his posting, a $150MM deal seemed like a real possibility. These days, teams value youth and upside and are willing to pay a premium to get it. Recent offseasons have seen players like Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sign for over a decade and at least $500MM in guaranteed money. Among Japanese players, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee came to the majors after their age-24 seasons and earned $100M+ deals. Imai is several years older than Yamamoto was when he signed and has a shorter track record as a front-of-the-rotation arm. While he was never going to match Yamamoto’s deal, Imai’s year-over-year improvement and relative youth were enough for the Astros to want him in their rotation.

Houston’s interest was not widely known, though it makes sense that they wanted another starting pitcher. Longtime ace Framber Valdez is currently a free agent. The team has had some discussions with Valdez’s camp, though the expectation is that he will sign elsewhere on a pricier contract. Hunter Brown was phenomenal in 2025, totaling 185 1/3 innings with a 2.43 ERA. That figure was third-best among qualified starters, trailing only Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. He also posted an 85th-percentile strikeout rate and a 77th-percentile groundball rate. Altogether, he was worth 4.6 fWAR and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. He’ll return as the staff ace in 2026.

Behind Brown, the rotation looks shaky. Cristian Javier currently projects as the No. 2 starter. He owns a 3.66 ERA in 538 career innings, but he pitched just 71 2/3 innings from 2024-25 due to Tommy John surgery. In just 37 innings this year, Javier had a 4.62 ERA with a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate. He is under contract through 2027. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. has had his own injury troubles, pitching just 103 innings in the past four years and missing 2023-24 entirely. Even if he performs well in 2026, the team will monitor his workload carefully. The recently-acquired Mike Burrows will play some role. He had a 3.94 ERA in 96 innings this year with an impressive 16.4% K-BB rate, though his overall track record is fairly minimal.

The addition of Imai gives the Astros a durable No. 2 or 3 starter at an affordable rate. It remains to be seen how his strikeout and groundball potential will translate against major-league hitting, though the club is surely hoping he can maintain his performance from Japan. The signing brings the Astros’ projected payroll to $242MM, according to RosterResource. The club was a second-time luxury tax payor this year and is hoping to avoid paying it for a third time. The first luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244MM, so the club will likely need to shed payroll if it wants to add to other areas of the roster.

With Imai now off the board, any clubs in need of a starter will need to look elsewhere. Dylan Cease was the top free agent pitcher entering the offseason and has since signed with the Blue Jays. Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, and Lucas Giolito are still available in free agency. Valdez and Suarez are front-of-the-rotation options, while Gallen, Bassitt and Giolito are cheaper, mid-rotation arms.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Astros and Imai had agreed to a deal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first on the three-year term with opt-outs after the first two seasons. Heyman reported the $54MM guarantee and $9MM in escalators at 80-100 innings, while Ronald Blum of The Associated Press was first on the signing bonus and specific escalator breakdown.

Will The Royals Trade A Starter?

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Early in the offseason, Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said the team was open to trading a starting pitcher for offense. That would have been focused on the outfield, which has been a problem for the club for years.

Kansas City has acquired a pair of outfielders in the month since Picollo’s comments. They signed Lane Thomas to a reclamation $5.5MM free agent deal, then swapped lefty reliever Angel Zerpa to Milwaukee for Isaac Collins and middle reliever Nick Mears. Those moves raised the floor relative to where the outfield stood at the end of the 2025 season, yet it remains one of the weaker on-paper groups in MLB.

Kyle Isbel is a low-end regular in center field. Collins had a strong season but was a 27-year-old rookie whose results outpaced mediocre batted ball metrics. The Royals probably don’t expect him to be more than an average regular in left field. Jac Caglianone has the highest ceiling of the group, but MLB pitchers exploited his aggressive plate approach in his first 62 games. Caglianone so thoroughly dominated the minor leagues that the Royals might feel he has little to learn by going back to Triple-A. Still, there are sure to be peaks and valleys even if he takes a step forward in his first full MLB season. Thomas battled injuries and was mostly unproductive after being traded from the Nationals to the Guardians at the ’24 deadline.

Depth options John Rave, Dairon Blanco, Drew Waters and Kameron Misner (acquired in a DFA trade with Tampa Bay) have shown very little at the big league level. That makes it unsurprising that the Royals continue to monitor the outfield market after the Collins/Thomas deals. Working with seemingly limited payroll space and a weak farm system, trading a starter could still be on the table — even if it seems less likely than it did a month ago.

Picollo has strongly downplayed the chance of moving Cole Ragans. He’s controllable for three seasons and has shown ace upside but is coming off a significant rotator cuff injury. They extended Michael Wacha last offseason and Seth Lugo before the trade deadline. It’s hard to see either veteran righty going anywhere.

Left-hander Kris Bubic is headed into his final season of arbitration control. He pitched at a top-of-the-rotation level but suffered a season-ending rotator cuff strain not long after the All-Star Break. Southpaw Noah Cameron had a sub-3.00 ERA over his first 24 career starts despite a below-average 20.5% strikeout rate. Controllable depth arms Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek have drawn interest but have minor league options and could be key injury insurance in Triple-A. They’re presumably open to moving Bailey Falter, but he’d have minimal trade value. Alec Marsh has gotten interest in the past but underwent labrum surgery in November and will likely miss the entire season.

Will anyone from that group be on the move before Opening Day?

 

The Rays’ Second Base Options

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The Rays made a pair of significant trades last month, shipping Shane Baz to Baltimore and Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh on the same day. The Baz move probably means they’re going to dip back into free agency for a cheap back-end starter after signing Steven Matz to a two-year deal. It’s less clear what they have planned at second base, a position that Lowe has locked down (when healthy) for the past seven years.

Free agency doesn’t offer much excitement. It seems safe to assume the Rays aren’t signing Bo Bichette. The open market options beyond that include Willi Castro, Ramón Urías and Luis Rengifo. The biggest swings they could take are on the trade market.

Tampa Bay hasn’t been prominently tied to Brendan Donovan. They’ve had conversations with the Diamondbacks about Ketel Marte going back to the Winter Meetings. Those preliminary talks involved both Baz and Ryan Pepiot. That framework is obviously no longer an option, and while the Rays could make a compelling package involving Pepiot and controllable relief help, Arizona GM Mike Hazen indicated earlier this week that they could soon cut off talks regarding Marte altogether. Each of Jake Cronenworth, Nico Hoerner and Jazz Chisholm Jr. feel like long shot trade candidates.

If the Rays don’t find a clear answer outside the organization, where could they turn at the keystone?

Richie Palacios

Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times wrote last month that Palacios was likely to be the top internal option. Acquired from the Cardinals over the 2023-24 offseason, the left-handed hitter turned in a .223/.346/.318 line over 316 plate appearances in his first season with the club. He batted .333 with a .396 on-base percentage last year but was limited to 17 games. Palacios fractured his right ring finger during Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He returned in April but quickly suffered a right knee sprain that kept him out until September.

Palacios had missed two months late in the ’24 campaign with a sprain of the same knee. He has played in barely more than a third of the team’s games over the past two seasons. “(He’s) a player we really appreciate, but he’s got to prove healthy,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander told Topkin in December. “He’s certainly a candidate internally, but we’re going to give ourselves a little bit of time to sort through it.”

At his best, Palacios shows the makings of a potential high-OBP bat. He takes a lot of pitches and has good contact skills with solid line drive rates. Palacios doesn’t have huge power but has a .370 on-base percentage over five Triple-A seasons. While the Rays haven’t given him much of a look against lefty pitching in the big leagues, he has more than held his own in his limited opportunities.

Taylor Walls

Walls is a more well-known commodity. He’s a 29-year-old who owns a .195/.286/.298 career batting line in more than 1500 plate appearances. He’s not going to produce at the plate. The Rays love Walls as an up-the-middle defensive player. Public metrics have been bizarrely divided on his work. Statcast’s Outs Above Average grades him below average, yet Defensive Runs Saved annually rates him as a Gold Glove caliber infielder.

The Rays’ internal evaluation must align much more closely to the DRS view. They wouldn’t continue bringing Walls back via arbitration if they didn’t consider him a defensive asset. He’ll play next season on a $2.45MM salary and is controlled for 2027 via $3.1MM team option. Walls will get a lot of action in the middle infield, but he’s likely to begin the season on the left side of the bag.

Tampa Bay waived Ha-Seong Kim in August and used rookie Carson Williams as their shortstop for the final month of the 2025 season. The 22-year-old was overmatched, striking out 44 times and batting .172 in 32 games. Williams also struck out in more than 34% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He has power and is a plus defensive shortstop but is likely to head back to Triple-A to continue working on getting his contact rate to a manageable level.

That’d leave Walls as the only real choice to play shortstop in the early going. Free agency and the trade market are even thinner there than they are at second base. Walls could kick over to second base midseason if Williams plays his way back to the majors.

Position Change Hypotheticals

While the Rays generally have a stockpile of multi-positional players, that’s not so much a strength of the current roster. Jonathan Aranda came up as a second baseman but moved off the position for defensive reasons. He has only played 141 innings there in the big leagues and was a full-time first baseman last year. Aranda is a below-average athlete and runner who probably isn’t moving back up the defensive spectrum.

Chandler Simpson was a middle infielder in college but has been a full-time outfielder since being drafted in 2022. Topkin notes that the 25-year-old took some pregame infield drills late in the season, though it’s not clear if the Rays will continue that next year. Despite being one of the fastest players in the sport, Simpson isn’t an especially gifted defensive outfielder. Maybe that’ll lead the coaching staff to give serious consideration to testing him on the dirt in 2026. Simpson stole 44 bases while batting .295/.326/.345 with zero home runs in 109 games as a rookie.

Cubs Notes: Imai, Okamoto

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Tatsuya Imai came off the board this afternoon. He agreed to terms with the Astros on a three-year, $54MM guarantee with opt-outs after the first two seasons. It was both a surprise landing spot and contract, as the NPB right-hander had generally been expected to pull a nine-figure deal that probably would have priced him out of Houston.

The Cubs were among the teams most commonly speculated as a fit for Imai over his 45-day posting window. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote last month that Chicago was involved but reluctant to make a long-term commitment that valued him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. The rest of the market evidently shared that trepidation.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Cubs appear to have been the top competition to Houston by the end of the signing period. Both Feinsand and Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggest that neither the Yankees nor Mets were heavily involved. The Yankees may be more focused on the lineup — they reportedly have an offer out to Cody Bellinger — while previous reporting has indicated the Mets aren’t eager to make a long-term investment in a free agent starter. Imai apparently was not going to be an exception, as Feinsand writes that the Mets weren’t convinced he’d be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

An upper mid-rotation starter has been the Cubs’ biggest need all offseason. They’ve yet to make any moves in the rotation aside from declining their option on and then retaining Shota Imanaga via the qualifying offer. They’re still lacking a high-end complement to Cade Horton at the top of the staff, at least until Justin Steele returns from April’s elbow surgery.

Imanaga had a terrible final few weeks as his home run rate spiked. Matthew Boyd was excellent in the first half but appeared to wear down as the season went along. His 179 2/3 innings pitched were 101 more than he’d thrown in any MLB season since 2019. Boyd took a 2.34 earned run average into the All-Star Break but allowed a 4.63 mark over his final 12 appearances. His strikeout rate dropped more than four percentage points in the second half. He’s headed into his age-35 season. Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea and Javier Assad profile as back-end or swing options.

The Cubs could still pursue any of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen if they want to add a starter via free agency. Teams have set significant asking prices in talks involving starting pitching, though the likes of MacKenzie Gore or Kris Bubic remain trade candidates.

RosterResource calculates Chicago’s luxury tax projection around $210MM. That leaves them almost $35MM below the base threshold and $21MM shy of their season-ending mark from 2025. They should have some payroll flexibility. If they don’t like the value on any available starting pitchers, they could potentially turn their attention to the offense as a way to replace some of the production lost from Kyle Tucker (whom they’re not expected to re-sign).

The Cubs have been loosely linked to third basemen, in particular. Reports have tied them to Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suárez, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer gave a firm vote of confidence to in-house third baseman Matt Shaw. This evening, Heyman listed the Cubs among a number of teams that have shown some interest in NPB star Kazuma Okamoto. The right-handed hitting corner infielder has until Sunday afternoon to sign.

Okamoto has been also been tied to the Padres, Pirates, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels this offseason. Most of those teams make more sense as landing spots than the Cubs, who have Shaw and Michael Busch at the corners. Plugging Okamoto in at designated hitter would block the path to at-bats for young hitters Moisés Ballesteros and Owen Caissie. Okamoto could take at-bats against lefty pitching from Busch but would have a cleaner path to everyday playing time with a team like Pittsburgh (at third base) or San Diego (at first base).

Yankees Have Reportedly Made Offer To Cody Bellinger

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The Yankees made a formal contract offer to Cody Bellinger this week, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Specifics of the proposal aren’t known.

General manager Brian Cashman has made no secret of the team’s desire to keep Bellinger. The former MVP’s first year in the Bronx was excellent. He hit .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs, his most in a season since 2019. Bellinger’s bat played very well at Yankee Stadium, where he put up a .302/.365/.544 line with 18 longballs.

New York acquired Bellinger from the Cubs last winter in what amounted to a salary dump. They parted with journeyman righty Cody Poteet while assuming all but $5MM of the remaining two years and $52.5MM on Bellinger’s contract. As he ended up opting out, the Yankees paid $27.5MM for that excellent year. It might require a five- or six-year commitment to bring him back as he enters his age-30 season.

The Yankees have had a quiet first couple months of the offseason. Their only move of significance was issuing the qualifying offer to Trent Grisham. He surprisingly accepted and is back in center field on a one-year deal at $22.025MM. Bellinger was ineligible to receive the QO after getting one from the Cubs over the 2023-24 offseason.

Grisham’s salary accounts for the majority of the $29.025MM they’ve spent in free agency so far. The remaining $7MM has been divided among a trio of one-year deals to bring back Paul Blackburn, Amed Rosario and Ryan Yarbrough. Their only MLB acquisition from outside the organization has been Rule 5 pick Cade Winquest.

That certainly won’t be the Yankees’ entire offseason. They presumably expected Bellinger’s free agency to carry well into the winter. The top two free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, each make sense on paper if Bellinger heads elsewhere. Signing one of Tucker or Bellinger would allow them to rotate their outfielders through the designated hitter spot if Giancarlo Stanton spends any time on the injured list. Bellinger could spell Ben Rice at first base and/or take playing time in left field from Jasson Domínguez, who still has a pair of options remaining.

An outfielder isn’t an absolute necessity, but it’s probably the cleanest path to adding an impact position player. Shortstop would be the primary alternative. Bichette is the only real solution there and faces questions about his defensive fit. He could be an option to handle shortstop for a season and move over to second base once Jazz Chisholm Jr. hits free agency a year from now. The Yankees have reportedly made Chisholm available in trade conversations, but that’d swap out one of their better all-around position players in the process.

The other option would be to make a rotation splash with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt opening the season on the injured list. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen are the best remaining free agent starters now that NPB righty Tatsuya Imai is off the board on a three-year deal with Houston. The Yankees were one of the teams linked to Imai when he was a free agent, but both Heyman and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote after the signing that the Yanks were not seriously involved in the bidding.

RosterResource projects the Yankees for a $286MM luxury tax number. Owner Hal Steinbrenner has spoken generally about a desire to stay below the $300MM mark in the past, though Cashman suggested in November that’s not a firm limit this offseason. The Yankees had a $320MM luxury tax payroll at the end of the 2025 season.

Kona Takahashi Could Return To NPB

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Right-hander Tatsuya Imai found an MLB home earlier today, signing a three-year deal with the Astros. The same can’t be said for Imai’s former Seibu Lions teammate, Kona Takahashi, whose posting window closes on Sunday. With just one major league offer on the table, Takahashi could be headed back to Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Mark Feinsand and Brian Murphy of MLB.com.

Imai landed a contract on the final day of his posting window, so there’s certainly still time for Takahashi to find a desirable deal. Feinsand and Murphy didn’t provide additional details about the lone offer in front of Takahashi, but their report suggests it might not be enough to coax the righty stateside. The duo suggested that Takahashi could head back to the Lions on a new multi-year deal with opt-outs that would allow him to hit the open market following the 2026 season as an unrestricted free agent. Avoiding the posting system and the associated release fees could make Takahashi more appealing to MLB teams next offseason.

The 28-year-old Takahashi bounced back to a degree in 2025 after a down year in 2024. He posted an ERA just over 3.00 across 24 starts with the Lions. He continued to show impeccable control (6.7% walk rate), though his strikeout rate fell to a career-low 14.3%. Takahashi had made just 15 starts the prior season. He recorded a 3.87 ERA in 2024 and failed to reach 120 innings for the first time since 2018.

Takahashi had a stellar two-year run from 2022 to 2023. He put together consecutive seasons with a sub-2.25 ERA while pushing his strikeout rate up near 20%. Takahashi tossed a career-high 175 2/3 innings in 2022, then came back with a 155-inning campaign the following year. Outside of 2024, he’s typically been a durable member of the Lions’ rotation.

James Fegan and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs pegged Takahashi as a backend starter, with praise for his pitching prowess but questions about his underwhelming fastball. Fegan and Longenhagen tiered Takahashi with Foster Griffin and Anthony Kay as potential options to fill out an MLB rotation. Griffin landed with the Nationals on a one-year deal, while Kay secured a two-year commitment from the White Sox.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken, Imagn Images

Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers Have Checked In On Bo Bichette

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Interest in free agent infielder Bo Bichette has mostly been limited to a pair of AL East teams this offseason. Toronto is known to be open to a reunion, while Boston has met with the two-time All-Star over Zoom. Three teams are now joining the Blue Jays and Red Sox in the race for Bichette’s services, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers have checked in on him.

New York is one of the few contenders without a concrete plan at shortstop. Anthony Volpe is coming off a brutal season and will miss the beginning of the 2026 campaign following labrum surgery. Utilityman José Caballero will likely cover shortstop until Volpe returns. The Yankees also re-signed Amed Rosario, who has plenty of experience playing up the middle.

Top prospect George Lombard Jr. is a candidate to handle the position in the future, but stepping in as soon as this season would be a tall task for the 20-year-old. Adding Bichette would obviously be a long-term commitment, though he could move to second or third base once Lombard is ready.

The Yankees have been primarily connected to pitchers and outfielders in free agency, but a notable internal development could adjust that approach. Reports emerged in mid-December that the team was listening to offers on infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. With the front office potentially less than enthused about extending Chisholm, who will be a free agent in 2027, flipping him now could make sense. Chisholm’s departure would open up a spot at second base, a position Bichette has said he’d be willing to play.

The case for the Cubs is similar. Chicago doesn’t have an obvious need up the middle, with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner locked in at shortstop and second base, respectively. However, Hoerner is drawing trade interest. The speedy infielder is entering the final season of the three-year, $35MM extension he signed in 2024. Just like with the Yankees and Chisholm, if the Cubs aren’t planning to bring Hoerner back, moving him for other assets would be a sensible path. Hoerner is coming off a strong season in which he hit .297 with 29 stolen bases.

There’s also the third base option. The hot corner has been vaguely mentioned as a defensive landing spot for Bichette, who’s seen his metrics fall off considerably at shortstop. In a separate post mentioning several free agents, including Bichette, Heyman reported that he’s drawing interest at second base, shortstop, and third base. Bichette could be a fallback option of sorts if Chicago comes up short in its pursuit of Alex Bregman.

Bichette had only played shortstop at the MLB level until a brief cameo at second base this past postseason. In his return from a September knee injury, Bichette appeared in five games at the keystone in the World Series. He played 30 games at second base in the minors. Bichette has never appeared at third base as a professional. His subpar arm strength wouldn’t be ideal at the position, but it could be a better spot for his declining range. Bichette ranked in the first percentile in Outs Above Average last season. At third base, he’d have the foul line as a bumper on one side, with the rangy Andres Gimenez supporting him on the other side.

The Dodgers have Mookie Betts locked in at shortstop, but second base is a short-term hole, and third base could be a long-term need. Deficiencies are relative when it comes to the back-to-back champs, of course. The second base mix currently includes KBO import Hyeseong Kim, prospect Alex Freeland, and the recently re-signed Miguel Rojas. Tommy Edman could also factor in when he’s not playing the outfield. Even if there isn’t a clear standout in the group, there are probably enough options for LA to adequately cover the position without a major addition like Bichette.

Once again, third base is a more interesting discussion. The Dodgers reupped with Max Muncy via a $10MM club option. He’s only signed through 2026, though. Muncy will turn 36 before the end of next season. Injuries have cost him significant time in each of the past two years. His tenure with the Dodgers is likely coming to an end at some point in the near future. If the club views Bichette as a viable fit at third base, he could spend a year at second base and then transition to the hot corner for the rest of what is likely to be a lengthy contract.

Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images

Giants To Sign Tyler Mahle

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Today: Mahle is guaranteed $10MM on the deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Performance bonuses could bump it up near $13MM, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.

Dec. 31: The Giants are closing in on a deal with free agent right-hander Tyler Mahle, reports Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s a one-year pact, per Rubin. The 31-year-old Mahle is a client of ISE Baseball.

Mahle is coming off an injury-riddled 2025 with the Rangers, though he was productive when healthy. The veteran righty was one of the most pleasant early-season surprises, pitching to a 1.64 ERA over the first two months of the season. Mahle allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his first 12 starts to begin the campaign. He was knocked around for eight earned runs across his first two starts of June, then hit the IL with shoulder fatigue. Mahle returned for a pair of outings in September, allowing a run over 9 2/3 innings.

Persistent maladies have limited Mahle to just 125 innings over the past three seasons. He made nine starts across a season and a half with Minnesota, missing time with a strained shoulder and a forearm issue. It was a disappointing outcome for the Twins, who parted with Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to land Mahle at the 2022 trade deadline. After signing with Texas in December 2023, Mahle missed the first four months of the year while recovering from elbow surgery. After three games with his new club, he went down with shoulder tightness and missed the rest of the year.

Mahle was routinely striking out more than a batter per inning during his peak years with Cincinnati, but those numbers have tailed off as the injuries have mounted. Mahle posted an uninspiring 19.1% strikeout rate last season. He sat at 92 mph with his fastball, down a couple of ticks from his best seasons with the Reds. The ERA estimators all suggest Mahle’s 2.18 ERA in 2025 should be viewed with skepticism. His xERA and xFIP were both above 4.00, while his SIERA was all the way up at 4.62. Mahle ran hot with home run luck (4.9% HR/FB), while also benefiting from a career-high 84.6% LOB%.

It was reported in mid-December that the Giants were still in the market for pitching after signing righty Adrian Houser. With Justin Verlander hitting free agency, the club entered the offseason with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray as the only guaranteed members of the 2026 rotation. Landen Roupp, who missed the final six weeks of the 2025 campaign with a knee injury, is also expected to be on the staff. Houser and Mahle are the favorites to round out the group.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey entered the offseason focused on adding to the rotation and the bullpen. While the club has been connected to some of the bigger names on the starter market, including Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen, the moves so far have been relatively minor. Houser came on board via a two-year, $22MM pact with a club option for a third season. The Giants added relievers Jason Foley and Sam Hentges on cheap deals. Mahle now joins the squad on a one-year deal.

Given the injury histories for Ray and Mahle, plus the limited track record for Roupp, San Francisco will likely need to lean on internal options for additional innings. Carson Whisenhunt, Carson Seymour, and Kai-Wei Teng all received opportunities last season, but none delivered useful results. Hayden Birdsong graduated from a long relief role to the rotation, but control issues led to a demotion to Triple-A. Keaton Winn and Blade Tidwell (acquired in the Tyler Rogers trade) missed time with injuries. Trevor McDonald might be the leading candidate to open the year as the sixth starter/injury fill-in. The righty closed the year with a pair of stellar outings, tossing six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers and striking out 10 Rockies over seven frames.

RosterResource currently has the Giants’ payroll at $175MM for 2026. That mark doesn’t include Mahle’s deal or the $17MM payment owed to Blake Snell in mid-January as part of his deferred signing bonus. When adding in those considerations, the club is on track to comfortably exceed the $177MM it spent on payroll last season. The increase in expenses could be the reason the Giants ultimately rounded out the rotation with low-cost veterans in Houser and Mahle. A general hesitation by the front office to pursue long-term deals for starters likely also factored in.

Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Poll: Will The Braves Add A Starter This Winter?

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The Braves have been very aggressive to this point in free agency. They kicked off their offseason by re-upping with closer Raisel Iglesias on a one-year deal ahead of his age-36 season. From there, they bolstered their bullpen further by bringing in veteran flamethrower Robert Suarez on a three-year deal. In addition to those moves, the offense has been tweaked in some significant ways. Mike Yastrzemski was brought in to shore up the team’s outfield depth following Marcell Ozuna’s departure in free agency. Ha-Seong Kim re-signed with the club to become the everyday shortstop in 2026, and the team even brought in Mauricio Dubon to offer depth in a utility capacity.

Coming off a 76-86 season, it’s understandable for Atlanta to be aggressive as they look to get back into contention and make the most of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s remaining years under club control. Bringing back Iglesias and adding Suarez to a bullpen that already had Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer in the late-inning mix is sure to give Atlanta one of the more intimidating bullpens in the league, and a full season from Kim should also be very impactful given that the Braves relied on Nick Allen as their shortstop for most of the 2025 season. That could be enough of a facelift for the offense by itself if Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies play closer to their potential than they did last year, but the additions of Yastrzemski and Dubon should be able to to offer more established backup plans than the team had last year to keep the offense afloat.

Strong as the bullpen and offense appear to be at this point, they weren’t the part of the team that most significantly hampered the Braves last year. It’s hard to argue against the team’s biggest weakness last year being the starting rotation, despite the elite talent it boasts on paper. Chris Sale won a Cy Young award in 2024 and spent much of 2025 looking poised to repeat. Spencer Strider was widely considered perhaps the game’s most exciting young arm just a couple of years ago. Spencer Schwellenbach has done nothing but deliver since making his big league debut, and Reynaldo Lopez has been brilliant since returning to the rotation after years in the bullpen.

Unfortunately, each of those pitchers spent significant time on the injured list last year. Lopez made just one start, while Schwellenbach and Sale combined for a measly 37 more. Strider made 24 starts but didn’t look quite like himself in his return from UCL surgery, with a below-average 4.45 ERA and a 24.3% strikeout rate far below his usual norms. That middling production still made Strider one of the more reliable pitchers in the Atlanta rotation for much of the year, as injuries required more and more starts be afforded to depth arms like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes, and Joey Wentz.

That’s a lot to go wrong for one rotation in a single year. With as much talent loaded into that rotation as the Braves have, it wouldn’t be a shock if their starters were among the best in baseball next year. Sale remains a likely future Hall of Famer who should be elite when healthy. Schwellenbach has a career 3.23 ERA with peripherals to match. Strider could easily regain his Cy Young caliber form as he moves further away from surgery, and Lopez received Cy Young votes himself in 2024 for his work as a starter. At the same time, the health of starting pitchers is less reliable than ever, and assuming any of those players will make 30 starts could prove foolhardy. It hardly seems like a coincidence that Atlanta’s starting rotation lacked consistency in its first year after losing Max Fried, one of the most reliable top-of-the-rotation innings eaters in the entire sport. While depth types like Holmes and Elder remain on the roster to pick up the slack, they certainly weren’t enough last year.

That makes the addition of a quality, reliable starter seem like an obvious choice. The market for starters has been fairly quiet so far outside of a big signing for Dylan Cease back in November, and plenty of options remain on the market. Someone like Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez could provide a reasonable facsimile to the stability Fried offered for years at the top of the Braves’ rotation, but Atlanta needn’t necessarily aim that high. Even adding an arm like Zac Gallen or Lucas Giolito would go a very long way to providing reliable innings to the rotation, and that sort of deal could be more affordable than the nine-figure contracts players like Valdez and Suarez figure to command.

While signing a starter would make plenty of sense, there’s some opportunity cost to doing so. That’s because right-hander Hurston Waldrep has the chance to be a major x-factor if given the opportunity to start. After a rocky debut in 2024, the team’s top pitching prospect enjoyed a strong run of ten appearances in 2025 where he pitched to a 2.88 ERA across 56 1/3 innings of work. Waldrep won’t turn 24 until March and could be an exciting addition to the rotation if given the chance, but that opportunity may only be available to him if the team doesn’t sign a starter. Of course, the team’s uncertain health outlooks in the rest of the rotation provide a reasonable counterargument to that; Waldrep may not need to wait very long to grab a rotation spot even if he’s pushed out of the team’s starting five on paper.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to the team bringing in a reliable starter is payroll. Atlanta is currently projected for a $256MM luxury tax payroll, according to RosterResource. That’s a jump of around $40MM relative to last year, though it’s actually around $20MM less than Atlanta put forward in 2024. If the Braves are willing to stay aggressive and spend to that 2024 level, perhaps adding someone like Giolito to the mix could be feasible. Failing that, however, the Braves would likely have to turn to the trade market to add an impactful starter. Doing so would likely mean surrendering young talent (such as Waldrep or infielder Nacho Alvarez Jr.) that the team appears reluctant to part with. Lower-tier starters like Jose Quintana and Zack Littell could be options as well, but it’s an open question whether they’d be substantially more effective than internal options like Waldrep or even Holmes.

How do MLBTR readers think Atlanta will put their rotation together headed into the 2026 season? Will they make a surefire addition like Valdez or Giolito, or will they instead go into the season with more or less the same group they have now? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Imai, A’s, Giants

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Happy New Year from MLB Trade Rumors! Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world as we kick off 2026:

1. Imai countdown continues:

The posting window for NPB right-hander Tatsuya Imai is set to close tomorrow at 4pm CT. With just over 30 hours to go before the deadline for Imai to sign a contract, the rumor mill has remained fairly quiet regarding Imai’s market. While early connections were drawn between the right-hander and the Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles, it’s been nearly a month since many of those rumors began percolating with minimal updates from there. Imai reportedly began in-person meetings with teams earlier this week, and while no new rumors have percolated as a result of those meetings, the right-hander figures to be in the final stages of his decision-making process at this point. Where will the 27-year-old righty land? MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the best fits for Imai in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

2. A’s continue extension talks:

The A’s inked slugger Tyler Soderstrom to a seven-year extension last week that was first reported on Christmas Day. Soderstrom, 24, was a first-round pick by the A’s back in 2020 and is coming off a breakout season where he slashed .276/.346/.474 with 60 extra-base hits (including 25 homers) in 158 games while primarily playing left field for the club. Soderstrom joins Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker among the players who have already extended with the A’s long-term, but reporting has indicated that they’re not done yet. Extension talks are reportedly ongoing with other players, and while it’s unclear whether those deals will get done or who exactly the team is pursuing a long-term deal with, the idea of signing Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, or Shea Langeliers to a long-term contract is surely exciting for fans of the team. Will any more deals get done?

3. Giants bring in Mahle:

It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for the Giants so far, but yesterday they made a significant addition to their rotation when they signed right-hander Tyler Mahle to a one-year deal. Mahle’s signing has not yet been made official and his salary has not been reported at this point, but the move figures to significantly bolster the team’s rotation headed into 2026. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander returned to free agency after one year in San Francisco, leaving little certainty in the Giants’ rotation behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. Mahle should help offer some of that certainty alongside fellow righty Adrian Houser, who signed on a two-year deal just two weeks ago.

With Houser and Mahle now in the fold, it seems likely that the Giants are done with rotation additions at this point and will simply fill out the fifth spot in their rotation with internal options like Landen Roupp and Hayden Birdsong. Could they turn towards addressing the lineup next? The club has reportedly shown interest in Cody Bellinger during his free agency, while Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner and Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan have both caught the club’s attention on the trade market.

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