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The Opener: Skubal, Bellinger, Red Sox

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Here are three things around the baseball world to keep an eye on headed into the weekend:

1. Will Skubal go to a hearing?

The Tigers are reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal made waves yesterday when they failed to reach an agreement to avoid arbitration prior to the filing deadline. The sides filed at a record-breaking $13MM apart, with the Tigers putting forward a $19MM filing figure while Skubal’s camp countered at $32MM. If the sides end up going to a trial, it would be one of the most impactful decisions ever made at the league’s arbitration hearings. The current record for a pitcher’s salary in arbitration is held by David Price and sits at just $19.75MM. A victory in this case for Skubal would utterly shatter that record, and it’s not hard to see why he might deserve that sort of price tag given his incredible back-to-back Cy Young award winning seasons the past two years. Of course, arbitration hearings don’t begin until the end of the month. That means it’s entirely possible the sides could reach an agreement to avoid arbitration before the hearing, although the “file-and-trial” approach most teams have taken to arbitration in recent years suggests that could be unlikely.

2. What’s next for Bellinger, Yankees?

A reunion between Cody Bellinger and the Yankees has long appeared to be the most likely outcome for the two sides this offseason. That might still be the case, but the two camps appear to be at an impasse for the time being. Reporting has indicated that New York put forward an offer to Bellinger with an average annual value in excess of $30MM, but that the sides remain apart in terms of contract length. That’s an extremely hefty annual salary, and beats the $28MM AAV (on a five year deal guaranteeing $140MM) MLBTR predicted for Bellinger at the outset of the offseason by a healthy margin. With that being said, the length of that contract offer is not yet known and could significant alter the overall value of that contract. A four-year deal with an AAV in the range of even $32MM would fall short of the total guarantee MLBTR projected, after all.

In any case, Bellinger seems to be prioritizing length with his next contract after signing short-term deals in his last two forays through free agency. The outfielder is reportedly seeking a seven-year contract, and that’s seemingly led both sides to evaluate other options. The Cubs are a surprising recent entrant into the Bellinger sweepstakes, while the Yankees could realistically pivot to another big bat on the market like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette. Will the sides split up over this gap in negotiations, or will they find a way to bridge it in the coming days and weeks?

3. Red Sox to host Fenway Fest:

January marks the start of Fan Fest season around the league, where teams hold fan conventions and celebrations in advance of the coming season. The first team to do so this year is the Red Sox, who will host their annual Fenway Fest tomorrow. The event runs from 9am to 6pm local time at Fenway Park, and tickets include access to autograph and photo sessions with players and alumni, a handful of panel discussions, and giveaways. Players and alumni in attendance will include Pedro Martinez, Wade Boggs, Carlton Fisk, Roman Anthony, Aroldis Chapman, Marcelo Mayer, and Ceddanne Rafaela. A full list of players, alumni, and coaches in attendance can be found here alongside further details about the day’s festivities.

Tigers, Tarik Skubal Likely Headed To Arbitration Hearing With $13MM Gap In Filing Figures

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The Tigers did not reach agreement with two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on a deal to avoid arbitration this evening. They’re now likely headed for what would be the most significant hearing in memory. That’s due to an astronomical $13MM gap in the sides’ respective filing figures.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Skubal is seeking a $32MM salary, while the Tigers filed at $19MM. The sides are free to continue negotiations right up to the hearing time, but teams typically adopt a “file-and-trial” approach and cease talks on one-year deals after figures are exchanged. If it gets to a hearing, an arbitrator can only choose either Skubal’s number or the team’s. Arbitrators are not permitted to land on a middle ground, so the result would be very consequential.

If it gets to a hearing, Skubal will be shooting for the largest arbitration salary ever. That record is held by Juan Soto, who settled on a $31MM deal with the Yankees in his final year before free agency. Shohei Ohtani and the Angels agreed to a $30MM deal in his final year of arbitration eligibility. They’re the only two players to reach that benchmark. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed the loftiest deal in last winter’s class; he landed at $28.5MM.

While Skubal’s filing figure isn’t markedly above those of recent superstars, it would shatter the benchmark for pitchers. The arbitration process hasn’t rewarded high-end arms as handsomely as it does impact bats. In fact, no arb-eligible pitcher has commanded even $20MM. David Price still holds the record with a $19.75MM salary from back in 2015.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote about the potential for an historically significant hearing when examining Skubal’s arbitration case this morning. As Passan pointed out, the collective bargaining agreement allows players who are one year away from free agency to compare themselves not only to past arbitration precedents, but to free agents as well. There’s ample precedent for free agent pitchers commanding upwards of $30MM annually, with some late-career aces pulling more than $40MM per season on short-term deals. That provision hasn’t actually moved the market for arb-eligible pitchers forward to this point, however, and the aforementioned massive salaries for Soto, Ohtani and Guerrero were all agreed upon without a hearing.

The Tigers’ filing figure aligns with arbitration’s historical precedent against pitchers. It’s also much more aligned with the usual year-over-year escalating salaries associated with the process. Skubal received a $10.15MM salary last year. The largest yearly jump for a pitcher is held by Jacob deGrom, who earned a $9.6MM raise after winning his first career Cy Young in 2018. Detroit’s figure would give Skubal an $8.85MM boost after his second consecutive Cy Young award.

To a large extent, this serves as a test case for the arbitration process itself. That Price still holds the record for a pitcher shows how much the system has lagged when it comes to valuing arms (particularly in comparison to the escalating free agent prices for starters). Skubal and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are aiming to blow that wide open. That’d obviously be significant for the southpaw himself but would also go a long way toward raising the earning ceiling for future arms.

There’s no guarantee that this actually gets to a hearing. Player and team would have a lot of money at stake if it does, and they’d each avoid the unpredictability of relying on the arbitrators if they settle on a deal in the mid-$20MM range. However, this kind of situation is precisely why teams prefer the file-and-trial approach. That’s designed to prevent the player from filing well above their expected value to anchor future talks from a higher baseline. Refusing to continue negotiating after numbers are exchanged prevents that situation. If the player files very high, the club feels good about its chances of winning a lower than expected number at the hearing.

It all makes sense in theory, but the stakes of a potential hearing in this case are higher than any in team history. They’d need to operate for the next month or so with a $13MM range in their payroll projection, which could hinder short-term free agent or trade activity. Skubal is one year from free agency and trending towards the largest pitching contract ever. If the Tigers feel they have any chance to re-sign him, they may not want to run the risk of an inherently adversarial hearing.

There’d also be ramifications if they put him on the trade market — either before Opening Day or, far more likely, if they fall out of contention before the deadline. One year of Skubal would have immense trade value regardless of his salary, but he’d be much more appealing to other clubs on a $19MM sum than he would at $32MM.

Yankees’ Offer To Bellinger Reportedly Above $30MM AAV

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The Yankees have made multiple offers to Cody Bellinger in recent weeks. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports that the most recent had an average annual value north of $30MM. However, the sides are still held up on contract length.

Kuty writes that Bellinger’s camp continues to push for a seven-year contract. It’s not known how many years the Yankees are willing to go, but it has thus far apparently been less than seven. Jon Morosi of The MLB Network suggested earlier this week that the team was more comfortable with a four- or five-year commitment.

The rumored proposal from New York would put Bellinger in the range of the most expensive bats to sign this offseason, at least on an annual basis. Kyle Schwarber re-signed with the Phillies for five years and $150MM. Pete Alonso received a five-year, $155MM deal from Baltimore. If the Yankees get their wish regarding the contract length, Bellinger’s deal likely ends up looking a lot like the Schwarber and Alonso pacts. MLB Trade Rumors settled on a five-year, $140MM contract in our list of the top 50 free agents.

As Kuty notes, a contract exceeding $30MM a year would make Bellinger one of the highest-paid outfielders in the league. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts (if he still counts) are the only outfielders making more than $30MM per season. It would also be a significant jump from his recent contracts, as the market has treated him with trepidation in previous years.

After the Dodgers moved on from Bellinger following the 2022 season, the Cubs scooped him up on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. Bellinger rewarded Chicago with a 20/20 campaign, but it wasn’t enough to land a long-term contract. He ended up back with the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal with opt-outs after each season. Bellinger didn’t opt out after a middling 2024 and was then traded to New York. The Yankees were able to land him just by sending over Cody Poteet and agreeing to pay all but $5MM left on Bellinger’s contract.

Bellinger unsurprisingly opted out of the final year of his deal after a strong season in New York. Regardless of where he ends up, he should be able to top the $25MM he was slated to make in 2026. Bellinger slugged 29 home runs last year, the most since his NL MVP campaign in 2019. He added 13 steals and nearly drove in 100 runs. Bellinger also provided stellar defense, with both Defensive Runs Saved (+11) and Outs Above Average (+7) praising his work in the field. Bellinger logged 300+ innings at all three outfield positions. He also made a handful of appearances at first base. The Yankees didn’t need his services in the infield with Paul Goldschmidt on board, but he could be an asset there if needed.

In addition to the considerable counting stats, Bellinger also made some improvements under the hood in 2025. He bumped his hard-hit rate to 37.9%. That mark is just above league average, but it’s a big improvement from recent seasons. Bellinger’s 31.4% hard-hit rate in 2023 was among the reasons he failed to secure a long-term deal after his first year with the Cubs. While he hit .307 that season, it was likely fueled by a career-high .319 BABIP. His xBA (.268) was nearly 40 points lower than his actual mark. Bellinger’s hard-hit rate improved to a still-underwhelming 32.9% in 2024, while his bat speed slipped to 69 mph, which ranked in the 13th percentile.

Bellinger also made more contact this past season. His 13.7% strikeout rate was the best mark of his career, as was his 7.6% swinging-strike rate. Bellinger ranked 26th among all qualified hitters with a 91% zone contact rate. He’d only been above 87% once in his career before 2025. Average batted ball metrics combined with elite contact skills could portend continued success for the 30-year-old Bellinger, particularly if he stays in New York. He slashed an uninspiring .241/.301/.414 on the road last year.

MLB Has Had Internal Conversations About In-Season Tournament

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Major League Baseball has had conversations about what would be radical changes to the schedule. Commissioner Rob Manfred made an appearance on New York’s WFAN with Craig Carton and Chris McMonigle and identified two possibilities that the league has discussed.

“We’ve talked about split seasons. We’ve talked about in-season tournaments,” Manfred said. “We do understand that 162 (games) is a long pull. I think the difficulty to accomplish those sort of in-season events, you almost inevitably start talking about fewer regular season games. It is a much more complicated thing in our sport than it is in other sports. Because of all of our season-long records, you’re playing around with something that people care a lot about.”

To be clear, it doesn’t appear that either idea is under serious consideration right now. Manfred only addressed the topic when asked directly whether the league would have any interest in something modeled after the NBA Cup. He responded by pointing to the challenges of implementing something similar in baseball, even as he acknowledged that they’ve given the concept some thought within the league offices.

The NBA introduced that in-season tournament during the 2023-24 campaign. It runs for roughly six weeks within the first half of the regular season. It involves every team and begins with group play followed by knockout rounds. Most of the games count towards a team’s regular season record. Players receive a cash bonus for winning or advancing deep into the tournament, and the winning team receives a trophy. The tournament has no impact on playoff seeding (aside from the games counting towards the regular season record).

MLB obviously would not need to follow the NBA model to a tee, nor is it likely they’d do so. The NBA Cup’s knockout rounds, comprised of the final eight teams, are single-elimination games. That’s very different than MLB’s series approach both during the regular season and the playoffs. That makes it more challenging from a scheduling perspective.

Even playing three-game series to determine multiple stages of a knockout round would leave a heavily unbalanced schedule for the clubs that advance. Playing them as single-elimination contests would complicate travel. MLB could carve out a couple weeks to run the tournament and determine that the games don’t count towards a team’s record, but that’d leave the teams that don’t advance with fewer overall games on the schedule. That comes with its own issues from a revenue perspective.

A split-season concept would be easier to implement. That’s in use in the minors all the way up to Triple-A. It essentially divides the season into two halves, each of which has its own winners. Those teams then play one another in the postseason, so a team can clinch a playoff berth by July. That theoretically keeps more fanbases engaged, as a team that plays terribly in April and May would have a fresh start in the second half rather than digging a potentially insurmountable hole.

However, this also raises the possibility that a team finishes second in its division in both halves and has the best overall record while still missing the playoffs (if the division winner in each half played poorly in the other). That happened to the 1981 Reds in MLB. There was a split season that year because of a midseason strike. Cincinnati was the best overall team in the National League but narrowly finished in second place in each half and was excluded from the playoff field.

This seems little more than an aside for now. There’s no harm for MLB in kicking around ideas internally. Even if they wanted to pursue them at some point, they’d need the Players Association to get on board.

A significant change which the league is actively pursuing is expansion. Manfred is planning to retire three years from now and has said he wants the ball rolling on moving from 30 to 32 clubs before he steps away. That’d lead to divisional realignment, likely with geographic conferences that each have four divisions with four teams apiece — as is the case in the NFL.

Manfred said his preference in that situation would be to keep the cities that have two teams (New York, Los Angeles and Chicago) in separate leagues. That’s also the arrangement in the NFL. Manfred will no longer be the commissioner once that comes into place — expansion is a multi-year process that won’t begin before the expiration of the CBA in December — but his comments provide a window into the league’s thinking at the moment.

2026 Arbitration Tracker

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Today is the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures in arbitration — an annual deadline that leads to a slew of one-year deals and, typically, a handful of multi-year deals. All but 18 arbitration-eligible players reached an agreement. Each player’s service time is in parentheses, and you can of course check back to see each player’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. All agreements are for one year unless otherwise noted.

Angels 

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

18 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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Teams and arbitration-eligible players had until 7:00 pm Central to agree to terms or exchange filing figures. The vast majority agreed to salaries, either this afternoon or before November’s non-tender deadline to ensure they were offered contracts at all.

There were 18 cases where team and player did not align — none bigger than the record $13MM gap between the Tigers and Tarik Skubal. Nothing formally prevents players and teams from continuing negotiations. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. (Hearings will run between January 26 and February 13.) The arbitrators cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

Unless otherwise noted, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported all filing figures for those who didn’t reach agreements. The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

  • Reid Detmers (3.159): Filed at $2.925MM, team filed at $2.625MM

Astros

  • Isaac Paredes (4.160): Filed at $9.95MM, team filed at $8.75MM
  • Yainer Diaz (3.035): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $3MM

Blue Jays

  • Eric Lauer (5.091): Filed at $5.75MM, team filed at $4.4MM (first reported by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet)

Braves

  • Dylan Lee (3.150): Filed at $2.2MM, team filed at $2MM

Brewers

Marlins

Mariners

  • Bryce Miller (2.153): Filed at $2.625MM, team filed at $2.25MM

Nationals

Orioles

  • Keegan Akin (5.083): Filed at $3.375MM, team filed at $2.975MM
  • Kyle Bradish (3.160): Filed at $3.55MM, team filed at $2.875MM

Rays

  • Edwin Uceta (2.150): Filed at $1.525MM, team filed at $1.2MM

Reds

Royals

Tigers

Twins

  • Joe Ryan (4.033): Filed at $6.35MM, team filed at $5.85MM

Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Jazz Chisholm Jr.

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The Yankees announced they’ve reached an agreement with infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the 2026 season. It’s a one-year, $10.2MM deal, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network. Chisholm is a client of Roc Nation Sports.

New York settled all eight of its remaining arbitration cases today. Chisholm was the only one to crack eight figures, though closer David Bednar ($9MM) wasn’t far behind. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz nailed both numbers. The 27-year-old Chisholm is in his final year of arbitration and will head to free agency next offseason.

Chisholm put together a massive 30/30 campaign in his first full season in pinstripes. He struck out at an above-average clip, but also pushed his walk rate to a career-best 10.9%. Chisholm’s 126 wRC+ was his best mark since the 134 he posted in an abbreviated 2022 season, when a back injury limited him to 60 games. Health issues hindered Chisholm for much of his tenure in Miami. That hasn’t been the case in New York. Aside from a minimum IL stint in 2024 and a one-month absence this past year, Chisholm has been a fixture in the Yankees’ lineup. He’s played at least 130 games in back-to-back seasons.

After making the move to third base when he first joined the team, Chisholm was locked in at second base after New York traded for Ryan McMahon. He should reprise that role in 2026, assuming he’s still on the team. Rival clubs have checked in with the Yankees about Chisholm. The pending free agent is interested in a contract extension, but New York hasn’t been as keen on the idea. There’s been no indication that the Yankees are actually considering trading Chisholm. He’s more than likely going to be back in the middle of a formidable New York lineup next year.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

Rangers Sign Patrick Murphy To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers announced the signing of reliever Patrick Murphy to a minor league contract with an invitation to big league camp. Texas also confirmed their previously reported agreement with veteran righty Nabil Crismatt.

Murphy will be in camp for a second consecutive spring. Texas signed the righty to a non-roster deal last offseason as well. He pitched well in exhibition play and made 14 appearances with Triple-A Round Rock before they granted him his release in July. Murphy wanted to pursue a foreign opportunity and wound up signing with the KBO’s KT Wiz. He had never played in Korea but spent the 2024 campaign in Japan as a member of the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

The former third-round draft choice started nine of 15 appearances with the Wiz. He tossed 60 2/3 innings of 3.12 ERA ball, albeit with a modest 17% strikeout rate. The Wiz wound up replacing both of their foreign-born pitchers. Lefty Enmanuel De Jesus also returned to affiliated ball on a minor league contract with the Tigers. The Wiz signed Matt Sauer and Caleb Boushley, who made 25 appearances for Texas last year, to fill those spots.

Murphy will try to pitch his way back to the MLB level for the first time in four years. He combined for 35 appearances for the Blue Jays and Nationals between 2020-22. He carries a 4.76 earned run average with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk marks in 39 2/3 MLB innings. Murphy sits around 95 MPH with his four-seam fastball and sinker and uses a low-80s curveball as his breaking pitch.

Mariners Avoid Arbitration With Arozarena, Gilbert

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7:50pm: Seattle announced agreements with all seven players in their arbitration class. That includes a $10.927MM deal with Gilbert, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’d been projected at an even $10MM. Gilbert is coming off a 3.44 ERA showing across 25 starts. He’ll go through arbitration once more before reaching free agency.

12:37pm: The Mariners and slugging outfielder Randy Arozarena are in agreement on a one-year, $15.65MM contract, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. He’s entering his final season of arbitration control before becoming a free agent next winter.

Acquired from the Rays at the 2024 trade deadline, Arozarena has been an impactful source of power in the heart of Seattle’s lineup since that trade. He had a slow start to his Seattle tenure but in 2025 slashed .238/.334/.426 with a career-high 27 home runs and 31 steals (the second-highest mark of his career). By measure of wRC+, which weights for the pitcher-friendly confines in Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, Arozarena has been 22% better than average at the plate since landing in the Emerald City.

Heading into 2026, Arozarena will again play a key role near the top of manager Dan Wilson’s lineup. He’ll be joined by MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and the recently re-signed Josh Naylor atop what should be a quality Mariners lineup. The M’s have been continuing their search for more bats, looking particularly hard at adding another infielder to the mix. They’ve reportedly shown interest in trading for Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan and D-backs star Ketel Marte, and they haven’t yet closed the door on a reunion with slugger Eugenio Suarez.

Arozarena was the Mariners’ most expensive arb case this winter. They’ve also reportedly agreed to a deal with George Kirby ($6.65MM) and have pending cases with Logan Gilbert, Gabe Speier, Luke Raley, Matt Brash and Bryce Miller. Arozarena had been projected for a heartier $18.2MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He’ll clock in about 14% lower than that mark, leaving the Mariners with more flexibility as they continue to look for additional help on the offensive side of things and in their bullpen.

Reds, Brady Singer Avoid Arbitration

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The Reds and right-hander Brady Singer are in agreement on a $12.75MM salary for the 2026 campaign, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It’s the final year of arbitration for Singer, who is set to hit free agency next offseason. The contract is slightly above MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $11.9MM. Singer is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Cincinnati acquired Singer in a November 2024 trade that sent Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer to Kansas City. He had an up-and-down season in his first year with the club. Singer was bombed for seven earned runs in his first start out of the All-Star break, pushing his ERA to 4.84 on the year. He closed the season with a strong 12-start stretch, posting a 2.81 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate. The final result was a pretty standard Singer season, with an ERA just above 4.00 and slightly less than a strikeout per inning.

The Reds had a hefty 12 arbitration cases this offseason. Singer was easily the most expensive. Cincinnati agreed to a $5.525MM contract with Gavin Lux and a $4.725MM deal with Nick Lodolo today. None of the other cases settled by the club exceeded $4MM. Singer’s settlement was the second-highest of the day across the league, behind only Randy Arozarena ($15.65MM). As things currently stand, Singer will be the highest-paid player on the roster next season. Jeimer Candelario’s unfortunate deal is still on the books for $12MM, but no other active Red will make more than $10MM, barring a big free agent addition.

Singer will be joined by Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Chase Burns on the 2026 staff. Cincinnati also has youngsters Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty waiting in the wings, along with injury returnees Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson, and Carson Spiers. It’s a deep group, which led MLBTR’s Steve Adams to ponder whether the club would trade pitching for hitting this offseason. President of baseball operations Nick Krall has downplayed moving any of his starters, though maybe seeing the ample returns for Shane Baz and Edward Cabrera could cause the club to reconsider that stance.

Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images

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