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D-backs’ GM Downplays Payroll Concerns

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Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick has already publicly indicated that his team’s payroll will decline from the franchise-record $200MM set in 2025, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the front office is handcuffed in terms of its ability to pursue additions this winter. General manager Mike Hazen recently pushed back on the idea that he might have to subtract some salary via trade, telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic:

“I don’t really feel that way, honestly. That’s not the impression I have. Are we going to be doing what we did last offseason? Probably not. But I don’t think I have zero wiggle room or avenues to pursue players.”

RosterResource currently projects the Snakes for about $143MM in 2026 payroll, and that’s before potential non-tenders among the arbitration class. Injured lefty A.J. Puk, who underwent UCL surgery this summer, is projected for a $3.3MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) but might not even pitch next season in his final year before free agency. Righty Kevin Ginkel ($3MM projection) posted a 7.36 ERA in 25 2/3 MLB innings. Outfielders Alek Thomas ($2.2MM projection) and Jake McCarthy ($1.9MM projection) both had well below-average seasons at the plate; McCarthy, in particular, was one of the 20 worst hitters in MLB, sitting with the 18th-worst wRC+ mark among the 348 hitters who tallied at least 200 turns at the plate.

Assuming some of that group departs, the Diamondbacks will find themselves with a $135-140MM projection for next year’s Opening Day payroll. Even if ownership plans to scale back payroll by as much as $25MM — and that’s just an arbitrary number for illustrative purposes — Hazen could reasonably have as much as $40MM to spend on next year’s payroll alone.

All of this pushes back somewhat against the notion of a potential trade of star second baseman Ketel Marte. Hazen has already called trading Marte or any of his star hitters “unlikely,” although because he’s acknowledged that he’ll hear offers as a matter of due diligence, some optimists have clung to the idea that Marte might be available.  Trading him would bring a haul of talent, but it’d also just create another hole which needs to be filled.

Arizona’s shopping list this winter is lengthy, to say the least. Hazen & Co. will need to add at least two starters to a rotation that currently consists of Ryne Nelson and a pair of pitchers who struggled badly in 2025: righty Brandon Pfaadt and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will miss most or all of next year. Zac Gallen is a free agent. Most of the organization’s top pitching products heading into 2025 pitched poorly and/or suffered an injury this past season. The bullpen needs a nearly complete overhaul.

In a separate piece, Piecoro suggests that reunions with Gallen and fellow righty Merrill Kelly (whom the D-backs traded to the Rangers back in July) seem unlikely if the two indeed command the type of $17MM+ annual values many (MLBTR included) have predicted for both pitchers. There’s no firm indication that either is squarely off the table, to be clear, but the D-backs need to add at least two starters and relievers apiece, and that’s to say nothing of the infield corners or the bench. Young sluggers Tyler Locklear and Jordan Lawlar could get looks at first base and third base, respectively, but neither has proven himself in the majors. Lawlar has also been getting a look in center field, which stands as another potential area of need after Thomas struggled so much with the bat in 2025 (and really, in his overall parts of four MLB seasons to date).

Red Sox Likely To Tender Contract To Tanner Houck

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The Red Sox are planning to tender a contract to right-hander Tanner Houck, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The club has until Friday evening to change its mind but it seems they are planning to keep Houck on the roster.

Friday at 7pm Central is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players don’t need to decide on a salary by that date. They have until January 8th to file salary figures. But the team needs to make a decision by Friday as to whether they are committed to paying the player or not. If the player is still on the roster beyond the deadline, the team will have to eventually pay him something, with various outcomes still possible at that point. A non-tender on Friday allows the team to walk away without paying anything.

Houck is arguably a borderline case on account of his health. He just had Tommy John surgery in August. He will likely miss the entire 2026 season. He can be retained via arbitration through 2027, at which point he is slated for free agency.

With 2026 likely to be a recovery year for Houck, the decision is more about 2027. The Sox could pay him for the 2026 season, hoping that the investment pays off in the following year. That’s something that teams often do in free agency. Pitchers recovering from surgery often sign two-year pacts, with the signing team knowing that they are probably only going to get meaningful return on investment in the second year, while the player banks a bit of cash while recovering.

The Sox themselves did this last offseason, as they signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year, $18.25MM deal. The lefty didn’t pitch for the Sox in 2025 but they will hopefully get something out of him next year. Other pitchers got similar deals recently. Shane Bieber got $26MM from the Guardians last winter, for instance, with an opt-out halfway through. A year earlier, Tyler Mahle got $22MM from the Rangers, with no opt-out. The Brewers gave Brandon Woodruff two years and $17.5MM when he was recovering from shoulder surgery.

Investing in Houck will cost less than that. He made $3.95MM in 2025, his first of three arbitration seasons. He only made nine starts in 2025 due to his arm issues but players going through arb usually see their salaries hold fairly steady when they miss significant time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houck for the same $3.95MM salary in 2026. If he stays on the roster and is tendered a contract for 2027 as well, he would likely end up in the same range again.

Essentially, tendering Houck a contract for the next two years will probably cost the Red Sox about $8MM total. They could also walk away after 2026 if he experiences some sort of setback, cutting their losses. The roughly $8MM would be less than half of what they paid to Sandoval and the guarantees of those other aforementioned deals. Houck doesn’t have the same track record as those guys but has shown plenty of potential, particularly in 2024 when he logged 178 2/3 innings with a 3.12 earned run average, 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

If the Sox were to non-tender Houck, it would probably suggest that they don’t expect him to fully return to that level in 2027, though there also could be other contributing factors. There’s no injured list in the offseason, so the Sox do have to keep Houck on the roster throughout the winter. Tomorrow is the deadline to add players to a 40-man roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. The Sox currently have a full 40-man and need to open some spots, assuming they want to add a few guys. Cotillo mentions the possibility of a lockout disrupting 2027, which could prevent the Sox from benefiting from Houck’s eventual return. However, front office still have to plan as though the season will be played, as there’s no certainty around the labor dispute right now.

The Sox currently have Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello under club control through at least 2030. Other than that, there’s not a ton of certainty. Kutter Crawford has posted decent results and should be in the mix. He’s under club control through 2028. The aforementioned Sandoval is signed for just one more year. Guys like Connelly Early, Payton Tolle and Kyle Harrison are in the mix but still aren’t proven big leaguers. The Sox plan to add to the rotation this offseason but haven’t done so yet.

Even if a pitching staff looks good on paper, injuries are always inevitable, so it’s anyone’s guess what the depth will look like by the time Houck is back on a big league mound. He has also had some success as a reliever, so perhaps there’s a scenario where he gets pushed to the bullpen, especially if there are workload concerns in the coming years. Time will tell how it plays out but it appears the Sox would like the payoff to be with Houck pitching in Boston.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images

Phillies Interested In Re-Signing Harrison Bader

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After a disappointing seasons that saw them earn a bye through the Wild Card series but immediately fall to the Dodgers in the NLDS, the Phillies are in an uncertain spot as the team figures to look very different by the time Opening Day rolls around. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents, while Nick Castellanos is expected to play elsewhere next year. While the team’s roster is in flux more than usual this winter, it’s long seemed likely that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would look to engage with some of those outgoing free agents.

That includes some players who haven’t been around quite as long as the team’s veteran core, as Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Lochlan March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that the team not only has interest in bringing free agent outfielder Harrison Bader back into the fold, but has also conveyed that to Bader’s camp already this winter.

“They know we’d like to bring him back,” Dombrowski said during last week’s GM Meetings, as relayed by March. “They also had expressed that they want to see what’s out there, because this was the best year he’s had, I think, in quite a while.”

That would seem to indicate that Bader won’t be jumping the market to sign right away, the way Josh Naylor did last night when he re-upped with the Mariners. Still, a reunion between Bader and the Phillies would make plenty of sense. After being dealt to the Phillies from the Twins at the trade deadline, Bader found another gear amid what was already a career year. In 50 games with Philadelphia, Bader slashed .300/.361/.463 (129 wRC+) to boost his season-long slash line to .277/.347/.449 (122 wRC+). Bader’s 7.8% walk rate was his best full-season mark since 2019, and while he struck out at an elevated 27.1% clip he made up for it by slugging a career-high 17 homers and 24 doubles.

This year’s performance from Bader was enough for him to profile as a solid regular in an outfield corner offensively, but even as his defensive metrics have slipped from once-elite levels he remains a solidly above average defender all across the grass, including center field. That adds a solid floor of production to the upside Bader flashed this year, and it’s been widely speculated that the 31-year-old will be able to land a multi-year guarantee this year on the back of his strong 2025, and MLBTR’s own prediction is that he’ll secure a two-year, $26MM guarantee.

For a team that enters the offseason with only Brandon Marsh locked into its outfield for next year, it’s easy to see why bringing back Bader would make plenty of sense. With that said, the Phillies are far from the only team that Bader could be a fit for. His old stomping grounds in both Queens and the Bronx could both use a center fielder, and teams like the Angels, Orioles, Guardians, Giants, and Royals are all known to be on the prowl for help either in center or the outfield generally this winter.

Some of those teams may be priced out of Bader’s market when all is said and done, and not all of them are perfect fits, but it’s a large enough cast of potential suitors that even with Philadelphia’s interest in a reunion Bader could have some incentive to wait out the market for at least a little while yet. Meanwhile, the Phillies will need to prioritize bigger ticket free agents like Schwarber and Realmuto themselves, whether that comes by way of re-signing them outright or finding another way to replace their production for 2026.

Padres Re-Sign Kyle Hart

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12:43pm: Hart will make $1MM in 2026, according to a report from Robert Murray of Fansided. The club option is valued at $2.5MM with a $200K buyout. Murray adds that escalators on games played can increase the option’s buyout to $500K while escalators on games started can increase the option’s overall price to $4.5MM.

10:34am: The Padres have re-signed Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2027 season, per a team announcement. The terms of the contract are not yet known.

Hart, 33 next week, posted a 5.86 ERA in 43 innings of work for the Padres this past year while splitting time between the rotation and bullpen. The lefty inked a $1.5MM guarantee with San Diego back in February that came with a $5MM club option for the 2026 season that Padres opted to decline earlier this month. That wasn’t necessarily a shock given his lackluster performance; even during his time at Triple-A El Paso, Hart posted a middling 4.10 ERA in 63 2/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18.5%. 2025 marked his first work in the majors since his 2020 big league debut with the Red Sox, which lasted all of 11 innings.

During the interim, Hart had bounced between various minor league affiliates before heading overseas to pitch for the KBO’s NC Dinos. He made 26 starts for the Dinos in 2024 and pitched exceptionally, with a 2.69 ERA and a 28.8% strikeout rate across 157 innings of work. It was a strong enough season that Hart looked to return to the big leagues and see what he could do at the highest level, but things didn’t work out quite so well last year. Hart is hardly the first player to dominate overseas but struggle to replicate his production stateside, as even 2023 KBO MVP Erick Fedde struggled in the big leagues this past year after enjoying a strong return season with the White Sox and Cardinals in 2024.

Regardless of Hart’s struggles last year, however, it’s understandable that San Diego decided to re-up with the lefty for 2026. The Padres are a team in desperate need of volume when it comes to rotation-capable arms. Dylan Cease and Michael King have both departed the organization for free agency and, while Joe Musgrove is expected back next year from injury, it’s already known that Yu Darvish won’t pitch next year. Musgrove and Nick Pivetta are both quality veterans, but Randy Vasquez, JP Sears, and Matt Waldron are all questionable as quality regulars in a contending rotation. That’s true of Hart as well, of course, but having additional depth behind that group figures to be valuable in order to avoid a situation like the one San Diego faced in 2021 when a lack of pitching depth forced them to turn to displaced veterans like Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez as they narrowly missed the playoffs due to a late September collapse.

Signing Hart helps fill out the depth on a budget, but it won’t do much to solve the problem of San Diego needing additional impact in the rotation. The Padres have operated with some financial uncertainty in the years since Peter Seidler’s death, and the recent announcement that ownership intends to explore a sale of the franchise further clouds the club’s financial picture in the short-term. That’s not to say making a splash in free agency and adding a mid-rotation or better arm to the mix is completely out of the question; they did manage to find room in the budget to add Pivetta just last year, after all. That could lead to a creative solution like trying Mason Miller or Adrian Morejon in the rotation as the team’s best option if they hope to add an impact starter with a pursuit of someone at the top of the market like Cease or Framber Valdez seemingly unlikely.

Yankees To Re-Sign Ryan Yarbrough

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12:32pm: Yarbrough will receive a base salary of $2.5MM in 2026 with an additional $250K in performance bonuses available to him, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

9:56am: The Yankees and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough are nearing an agreement on a one-year, major league contract per a report from Robert Murray of Fansided. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the deal is pending a physical. The specifics of the contract are not yet known.

Assuming the deal makes it over the finish line, it’ll be a starkly different offseason experience than Yarbrough had last year, when he lingered on the market until February before catching on with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal. He opted out of that deal just before Opening Day, which led him to a major league contract with the Yankees for the 2025 campaign. It was a decent enough year for the lefty in the Bronx, as he pitched to a 4.36 ERA across 64 innings of work split between eight starts and 11 relief appearances.

That’s roughly league average (94 ERA+) production on the surface, and more advanced metrics are something of a mixed bag but generally support that sentiment. His 5.06 FIP is well below par, but much of that has to do with an inflated home run rate. Yarbrough allowed 13 homers in just 64 innings of work despite an entirely manageable 6.9% barrel rate that was largely in line with his career norms. Yarbrough’s work in New York actually tied a career high (20.8%) for strikeout rate and saw him limit walks to a decent 7.2% clip. His 4.14 SIERA clocks in right around league average, as does his 4.30 xFIP.

While the specifics of the contract aren’t yet clear, re-upping for another year certainly seems to make sense for both sides. Signing this early in the offseason offers Yarbrough a level of certainty he wasn’t afforded last year while allowing the Yankees to build some depth into their rotation mix that will surely prove valuable headed into 2026. While the Yankees have a deep group of starting options with Gerrit Cole expected back from Tommy John surgery early next year plus Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Cam Schlittler, it’s not hard to see why the team could use some additional depth.

Cole and Rodon both won’t be ready for Opening Day, while Clarke Schmidt is unlikely to be a factor until late in the year after his own Tommy John surgery. Gil appears to be healthy but has a lengthy injury history that could make relying on him for 30 starts a tall order as well. With so much uncertainty among that group, the addition of Yarbrough offers a steady veteran to offer roughly average production when filling those gaps. Yarbrough is more than comfortable bouncing between the rotation and bullpen after doing so throughout virtually his entire career, and having him available as a long relief arm could be valuable for a bullpen that figures to be searching for innings help after losing Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.

Whatever the cost of Yarbrough’s contract ends up being, it should serve as no impediment to the Yankees as they look to fill out the rest of their roster. The club has its work cut out for it this winter, as they’ll need to replace Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, and Amed Rosario (along with Williams and Weaver) as they head into free agency on top of whatever other upgrades the club is interested in making to its roster. Given Schmidt’s injury, perhaps even the addition of another starter could be on the table if the team wants to have young pitching to dangle in trade talks or have the luxury of being patient with Cole as he gets his elbow ready for game action next year.

Nick Sandlin Elects Free Agency

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November 17: Sandlin has indeed rejected his outright assignment and elected free agency, according to an announcement from the Blue Jays.

November 15: The Blue Jays outrighted Nick Sandlin off the 40-man roster, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Sandlin has over three years of service time and will surely elect free agency in the coming days.

It’s effectively an early non-tender of the righty reliever. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Sandlin for a $2MM salary if he were tendered an arbitration contract. That’s not a huge amount, but the Jays soured on his future enough that they didn’t want to lock him into a middle relief role going into next season.

This drops their roster count from 38 to 37. Teams need to decide which eligible prospects they want to keep out of the Rule 5 draft by Tuesday evening. The Jays have an extra spot available than they would have had if they’d waited until Friday’s non-tender deadline to make the cut.

Toronto acquired Sandlin as a secondary piece of last winter’s Andrés Giménez trade. The Southern Mississippi product had pitched to a 3.27 earned run average over parts of four seasons in Cleveland. Sandlin never had great control, but he missed a good number of bats behind a plus slider and a promising splitter. The Jays hoped he could take on a higher-leverage role after being more of a sixth/seventh inning type in a loaded Cleveland bullpen.

Injuries kept that from happening. Sandlin went down three weeks into the season with a lat strain. He returned in mid-June but was shut back down after nine appearances by elbow inflammation. The latter injury ended his year. Sandlin tossed 16 1/3 innings overall. He gave up seven runs (four earned) with 16 strikeouts and eight walks. He recorded five holds and a save but also surrendered three leads.

Sandlin’s stuff was diminished. He averaged career lows on both his slider (78.4 MPH) and four-seam fastball (91.4). While he has never been a flamethrower, his heater was in the 94-95 MPH range during his rookie season and sat between 92-93 last year. Other teams evidently share the Jays’ concerns about the diminished velocity. Sandlin cleared waivers, suggesting no club wanted to take a flier and tender him at that projected $2MM price.

The Opener: Naylor, Mariners, Nationals

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As the first major piece of the offseason puzzle shakes loose, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Naylor nearing deal:

The big news from this weekend was the Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor getting together on what’s expected to be a five-year deal in the range of $90MM-$100MM. That Naylor re-upped in Seattle is hardly a surprise given that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto had made it extremely clear that retaining Naylor was a “priority” for his front office headed into the winter. Naylor himself was candid about enjoying his stay in town as well, as well. Even if it was an expected outcome, however, a deal coming together so quickly and at a level that seems likely to meet or slightly exceed MLBTR’s five-year $90MM prediction for his eventual contract seems like a good sign for the players on the market this winter. The deal figures to be made official at some point in the near future, and a more specific breakdown of the contract structure is likely to be revealed in the coming days as well.

2. What’s next for Seattle?

Now that Seattle has landed their top priority of the winter, it’s fair to wonder what a team that came just one game from the World Series this season will do moving forward. It would make sense for them to continue looking for ways to bolster their infield, given that Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez both hit free agency alongside Naylor to open up holes at second and third base. The Mariners are also known to be looking into the high leverage relief market this winter. One other question would be about the future of Harry Ford, who showed himself to be ready for the big leagues but is blocked from everyday playing time by Cal Raleigh behind the plate. Perhaps Ford could be tabbed as the team’s backup catcher and get semi-regular starts elsewhere in the lineup, though it also seems as though a trade may not be off the table.

3. Nationals to introduce Blake Butera:

As noted by Bobby Blanco of MASN, newly-minted Nationals manager Blake Butera will be available to the media later today in an introductory press conference scheduled for 1:30pm local time. Butera, 33, is the youngest manager in MLB as he steps into his new role and is arguably among the most unorthodox in a sea of unusual managerial hires this winter. President of baseball operations Paul Toboni will presumably be in attendance as well and has spoken effusively of his new skipper in previous comments to the media. Prior to being hired by Toboni, Butera had served as the Rays’ senior director of player development and was a manager in the minor leagues for four seasons.

Mariners To Re-Sign Josh Naylor

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The Mariners and first baseman Josh Naylor are in the final stages of working out a five-year contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  The deal will become official when Naylor passes a physical, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  WHDH’s Ari Alexander reports that the contract is in the range of $90MM-$100MM.  Naylor is represented by ISE Baseball.

Assuming the deal crosses the finish line, Naylor becomes the first headline name of the 2025-26 free agent class to land a new contract, just two weeks after the World Series concluded.  It counts as a surprise to see any major free agent sign their next contract this quickly, even before the players who received qualifying offers have made their decisions.  (Naylor was notably not eligible for a QO, since he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners during the season.)

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Naylor 12th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and the five-year term matches our projection that Naylor would receive a five-year, $90MM deal.  The five-year length of Naylor’s contract also matches the longest free agent deal the Mariners have given out during Jerry Dipoto’s decade in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations department.  The M’s inked Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM pact during the 2021-22 offseason, and Ray’s contract and Yusei Kikuchi’s four-year, $56MM deal in January 2019 were the only free agent deals of the Dipoto era to exceed even two years.

There are multiple reasons behind the lack of big free agent strikes.  The Mariners’ infamous 10-year, $240MM deal with Robinson Cano from December 2013 could’ve led to some organizational wariness over blockbuster signings.  Since John Stanton’s ownership group bought the team in 2016, the M’s have only once finished a season with a top-10 payroll, and are only moving back into the middle range of spending league-wide.  There is also “Trader Jerry’s” own personal preference to build rosters via trades rather than free agents, as Dipoto has become known for being very active in negotiating swaps.  Players may have had misgivings about joining a Mariners team that has two just postseason appearances in the last 24 seasons, and hitters in particular weren’t exactly lining up to play in a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment.

With all of this in mind, there was such mutual interest between Naylor and the Mariners that it certainly seemed like the team was very willing to stretch beyond its usual free agent comfort zone.  Dipoto was open in telling the media — including Darragh McDonald on the MLBTR Podcast back in September — that re-signing Naylor was a priority for the organization, and Naylor himself was just as effusive in how much he enjoyed playing in Seattle.

Considering how Naylor performed after arriving in the Pacific Northwest, it’s easy to see why both sides moved quickly on a long-term deal.  Naylor was already enjoying a strong season with the Diamondbacks, but with Arizona falling out of contention, the D’Backs dealt the slugger a week before the trade deadline, landing rookie left-hander Brandyn Garcia and pitching prospect Ashton Izzi.

Naylor proceeded to hit .299/.341/.490 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases (without a single caught stealing) over 210 regular-season plate appearances for the M’s, and he followed that up with a .340/.392/.574 slash line over 51 postseason PA.  Adding this type of pop into the lineup was perhaps the primary reason the Mariners won the AL West, and then outlasted the Tigers in the ALDS before falling just short of the first World Series berth in franchise history in losing the ALCS to the Blue Jays in seven games.

This kind of success made the Mariners want to more or less bring the band back together for 2026, which was no small feat since Naylor, Jorge Polanco, and Eugenio Suarez (among others) were all set for free agency.  Re-signing Naylor is the first major domino to fall, and it now remains to be seen if either Polanco or Suarez can also be retained in the wake of the team’s sizeable commitment in Naylor.  The M’s entered the offseason with approximately $34MM to spend, according to Dipoto’s statements after the playoff run was over, with more money potentially available at the deadline if more in-season reinforcements were required.

For now, the Mariners and their fans can at least enjoy the idea of Naylor suiting up at T-Mobile Park for the next five seasons.  Naylor turns 29 in June, so his contract will run through his age-33 season.  There has been some league-wide hesitancy in recent years about giving major contracts to first base-only players (especially as those players enter their 30s), yet Naylor’s production outside of just his stretch run with the Mariners makes him a solid choice for a five-year investment.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ in 2025 was a career high, narrowly topping the 127 wRC+ he posted with the Guardians in 2023.  Since emerging as a regular with Cleveland in 2022, Naylor has hit .275/.336/.464 with 88 home runs, translating to a 123 wRC+ and 9.9 fWAR over the last four seasons.  His barrel and hard-hit ball rates are okay but uninspiring, and his walk rate from 2022-25 was below average, so Naylor doesn’t exactly fit the profile of a classic slugging first baseman.

His biggest offensive weapon is his ability to make contact, as Naylor is among the league’s more difficult players to strike out though he is prone to chasing pitches off the plate.  There is also the amusing oddity of Naylor’s 30-for-32 record at stealing bases in 2025, which speaks to his skill as an opportunistic baserunner despite being one of the slowest players in baseball.  Defensively, public metrics are mixed on his glovework.  The Outs Above Average metric has him solidly above average with +12 OAA, while his -6 Defensive Runs Saved paints a less-flattering picture of his work at first base.

Naylor joins Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez as Seattle players locked up through at least the 2029 season, and Rodriguez’s deal could actually extend through 2039 depending on a complicated set of options following the 2029 campaign.  These three All-Star position players, veteran righty Luis Castillo, and a core of homegrown starters (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller) have become the building blocks of an AL West title team that looks to remain competitive for at least the rest of the decade.

Though many pundits — including three of us at MLBTR — predicted Naylor would re-sign the Mariners, the fact that he has found a new deal so suddenly creates an interesting ripple effect on the rest of the free agent class.  Teams in need of lineup help have one less big bat to consider, and the first base market in particular has now lost a name many teams would’ve considered as perhaps a preferred alternative to Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakami, or Kazuma Okamoto.  Murakami or Okamoto could be deployed at third base and Cody Bellinger could be viewed as a first baseman or outfielder in equal measure, depending on a suitor’s needs.

Inset photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear — Imagn Images

Mariners Acquire Robinson Ortiz From Dodgers

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The Mariners and Dodgers each announced that Seattle has acquired left-hander Robinson Ortiz in exchange for minor league right-hander Tyler Gough.

Neither player has any big league experience, but the trade is likely more about the Dodgers’ desire to clear a spot on their 40-man roster.  Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and Friday is the non-tender deadline, making for a very busy upcoming week of roster churning.

Interestingly, it was only 10 days ago that Los Angeles selected Ortiz’s contract to the 40-man roster, but the Dodgers have now changed course and sent Ortiz to Seattle.  L.A. now has 38 places filled on its 40-man, while the Mariners have at least 39 spots addressed and potentially a full 40 depending on when Josh Naylor’s new contract is made official.

Ortiz (who turns 26 in January) had spent his entire pro career in the Dodgers organization prior to today’s trade.  Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and multiple injury problems, Ortiz pitched only 22 2/3 innings over a five-year span covering the 2020-24 seasons, but the 2025 campaign represented some return to relative normalcy.  The southpaw posted a 2.73 ERA and 28.3% strikeout rate over 59 1/3 combined innings at three different minor league levels, with Ortiz making his debuts at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels last year.

A nasty slider/sinker combo has led to a lot of strikeouts for Ortiz, though control has continued to be an issue, as evidenced by his 13.2% walk rate in 2025.  Seattle is notably thin in left-handed pitching, as Gabe Speier currently represents the only lefty slated to be part of the Mariners’ bullpen mix next year.  Ortiz adds a bit more depth in that department, and there appears to be plenty of upside for Ortiz as a relief weapon if he can cut back on the free passes.

Gough was a ninth-round pick for the Mariners in the 2022 draft, and he posted a 4.66 ERA over 125 2/3 innings at A-level Modesto in 2023-24, starting 32 of his 33 career games.  A Tommy John surgery in September 2024 has since kept Gough off the mound, though the usual TJ recovery timeline should put the right-hander in line to be ready for a healthy Spring Training come February.

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