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Poll: Will The Pirates Make A Splash In Free Agency?

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The Pirates enter this winter on a quest to augment their offense in a way that could allow them to contend while superstar hurler Paul Skenes is still in town. Skenes is backed by a solid group of pitching options, including veteran Mitch Keller as well as young arms like Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler in the rotation along with closer Dennis Santana in the bullpen. That deep array of pitching options has virtually no support from the offense, however; while Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz certainly have the capability of being quality regulars in the lineup, only Spencer Horwitz (119 wRC+) and Joey Bart (101 wRC+) were actually above average hitters for Pittsburgh this year.

That leaves the team in need of help in the lineup, and they appear to be unusually willing to dip into free agency to get it. The team had interest in Josh Naylor before he re-upped with the Mariners and has even shown interest in star slugger Kyle Schwarber. A deal at or approaching $100MM would be virtually unheard of for the Pirates in their team history. Reynolds’ $100MM extension is the only nine-figure deal in history, and their next two richest deals (the $70MM range for Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes) were both extensions as well. Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39MM deal from the 2014-15 offseason remains the largest free agent expenditure in team history more than a decade later.

While the Pirates have indicated they have more financial flexibility than previous offseasons and their interest in Schwarber indicates at least some willingness to spend, it would be understandable for fans in Pittsburgh to take the stance that they’ll believe ownership would greenlight that sort of financial outlay when they see it. Adding a top-ten free agent in this year’s class isn’t the only way the Pirates could improve this winter, however. Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported yesterday that Pittsburgh is also looking at players like Ryan O’Hearn, Jorge Polanco, and Kazuma Okamoto as “perhaps more realistic options” to bolster their lineup via free agency.

All three clock in well below Schwarber’s five-year, $135MM prediction from MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Okamoto is predicted for a four-year, $64MM deal, while Polanco is predicted for three years and $42MM and O’Hearn is predicted for two years and $26MM. Of that trio, only O’Hearn wouldn’t represent a new record in free agency for the Pirates, and given the fact that the Pirates entered 2025 with three $70MM+ contracts on their books it’s hardly out of the realm of possibility that they could stomach a deal on one of those levels. Any of those hitters would substantially improve the Pittsburgh lineup as well and could combine with Horwitz, Bart, Reynolds, and Bart to create a much more competent offense than the team had this season.

With that said, Rosenthal and Drellich caution that it could be difficult for the Pirates to convince even mid-level free agents like those to sign on in Pittsburgh if they get similar offers from teams with clearer paths towards contention. MLBTR’s Top 40 Offseason Trade Candidates list holds intriguing names like Brendan Donovan, Jarren Duran, Brandon Lowe, and Alec Bohm, all of whom would substantially improve the Pirates’ offense in their own right and allow them to do so without spending significant dollars or the player having the opportunity to turn them down. Of course, a trade wouldn’t necessarily preclude a free agent signing; in fact, if they were to acquire an affordable piece like Donovan, it might actually make them more likely to sign a free agent if players begin to view their path to contention in 2026 as more credible.

How do MLBTR readers view the hints of spending in Pittsburgh this winter? Will they make a splash in free agency this winter? Or, if not, will they at least sign a credible enough free agent to break the record held by Liriano’s deal from more than a decade ago? Will they go high enough to surpass the $70MM range of the Hayes and Keller deals? Have your say in the poll below:

Cardinals’ JoJo Romero Generating Trade Interest

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The Cardinals moved the first of what’ll surely be several veterans earlier today when they traded right-hander Sonny Gray (and $20MM) to the Red Sox for a pair of younger pitchers and a player to be named later (or cash). There’s no telling right now the order in which their offseason dominos will fall, but Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports that left-handed reliever JoJo Romero has been drawing trade interest throughout the first few weeks of the offseason.

Romero is about as straightforward as trade candidates get. He’s a productive, affordable reliever on a rebuilding club who’ll be a free agent this time next year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $4.4MM salary in 2026, which is Romero’s final season of club control.

The 29-year-old Romero came to the St. Louis from Philadelphia in 2022 and established himself as a staple in the Cardinals’ bullpen beginning in 2023. Over the past three years, he’s worked 156 2/3 frames with a 2.93 ERA and roughly average strikeout and walk rates (22.9 K%, 8.5 BB%). He sat 93.7 mph with his sinker this past season and kept 53% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground en route to a sparkling 2.07 ERA.

Romero has been one of the Cardinals’ top leverage relievers, evidenced by a dozen saves and 57 holds across the past three seasons. He also posted career-best numbers against righties in 2025, limiting them to just a .220/.327/.315 batting line.

[Related: Top 40 Trade Candidates of the 2025-26 MLB Offseason]

The Cardinals’ case for trading Romero is bolstered by a generally weak class of left-handed relievers on the free agent market. There are some relatively solid options out there, including Caleb Ferguson, Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Justin Wilson, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz and Sean Newcomb (who quietly enjoyed a career-best season in the bullpen). Most of those southpaws will pitch next season in their mid-to-late 30s, however. Ferguson is 29, but Coulombe, Milner, Wilson, Pomeranz and Thielbar are all 35 or older. Newcomb is 33 but has minimal track record in recent seasons.

Romero is younger and more consistent than most of the options available in free agency. His projected $4.4MM price tag is probably less than what the majority of those free agent options will command, too. The Cardinals found themselves in a similar situation with closer Ryan Helsley last offseason but bizarrely opted to hang onto him, hoping that demand for Helsley would increase and net a larger return in July, when the supply of impact relievers was more limited. Instead, Helsley had a first half that was solid but not quite up to his elite standards the two prior seasons. The Mets still swung a trade to acquire him, but it’s fair to wonder whether the Cards would have done better had they flipped him last winter.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Cardinals, under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, will repeat the approach that predecessor John Mozeliak took with Helsley. Bloom has already shipped out Gray, and the general tone in all of his offseason media sessions has been one of improving the player development department and taking a long-term approach to building the Cardinals back up. The return for Romero isn’t going to be franchise-altering, but he ought to command a prospect or two that the Cards can plug into their minor league ranks. Holding onto him runs the risk of an injury or poor first-half performance tanking Romero’s stock; a trade at some point this offseason feels quite likely.

Blue Jays’ Easton Lucas Granted Release, Expected To Sign Overseas

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The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that they’ve placed left-hander Easton Lucas on unconditional release waivers. That drops their 40-man roster count to 37. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that Lucas will sign with a foreign team once he clears waivers (presumably in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball or in the Korea Baseball Organization).

Lucas, 29, appeared in six games (five starts) for Toronto this past season. He became a cult hero in April when he rattled off 10 1/3 shutout innings across two starts to begin his Jays tenure — including a game at Fenway Park where he outdueled eventual Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet. The good times didn’t last, however. Lucas was torched for eight runs in his next start and wound up surrendering a total of 18 runs in 14 innings following that scoreless stretch.

This was the third season in which Lucas has logged some big league time, though his 24 1/3 frames this year marked a career-high. He’s pitched 42 2/3 innings in the majors and been tagged for an 8.02 earned run average. Lucas has fanned a below-average 19.6% of opponents against a bloated 12.3% walk rate in his limited MLB exposure.

Triple-A has been another story entirely. Lucas has spent parts of three seasons at the top minor league level and, in 162 2/3 innings, pitched to a solid 3.60 ERA. He’s punched out 24.4% of his opponents and logged a more palatable (but still higher-than-average) 10% walk rate. Lucas sits 93-95 mph with his four-seamer and rounds out his four-pitch arsenal with a changeup, slider and more seldom-used cutter.

Latest On Pirates’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Pirates are looking to upgrade their offense for next year and are seemingly casting a wide net. They reportedly made a run at Josh Naylor before he re-signed with the Mariners and have been connected to free agent Kyle Schwarber. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, they are also considering free agents such as Jorge Polanco, Kazuma Okamoto and Ryan O’Hearn. They have also checked in with the Cardinals about trade candidates Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman.

It’s been a long time since the Pirates have been big players in the offseason but recent reporting has suggested they could be more active this winter, at least relatively speaking. No one is expecting them to suddenly be a player for someone like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette but there is some smoke suggesting they could push things further than in the past. They’ve still never given a free agent a guarantee larger than the three years and $39MM they gave to Francisco Liriano over a decade ago. Their most recent multi-year deal for a free agent was two years for Ivan Nova in 2016.

It’s a low bar to clear but it’s possible the Bucs set new benchmarks in those categories. Per The Athletic, it’s possible that is related to the upcoming expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. The CBA is up just over a year from now and teams may want to look like they are spending their revenue sharing money, in order to keep receiving it in the next CBA. However, the report suggests this is likely more of an issue for the Marlins than the Bucs since Pittsburgh got their competitive balance tax number over $105MM in 2025. That was the target for the A’s in 2025 as they looked to increase their CBT number in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA.

Even if the CBA stuff isn’t relevant, there are plenty of straightforward baseball reasons for the Pirates to get more aggressive. They haven’t made the postseason since 2015 and haven’t finished above .500 since 2018. They have a strong collection of controllable and affordable starting pitchers. The group is headlined by Paul Skenes, who is controlled for four more seasons, but he’s just a year away from arbitration and the associated salary increases. Konnor Griffin is considered by some to be the top prospect in the sport right now. He reached Double-A this year and could make his big league debut in 2026, even though he doesn’t turn 20 years old until April.

Put it all together and there’s a good case that now is the time to strike. Upgrading the offense is an obvious goal. The team had a collective .231/.305/.350 batting line in 2025. That resulted in an 82 wRC+, putting them ahead of just the Rockies among MLB clubs. Spencer Horwitz was the only guy on the team to post a wRC+ higher than 101. They have a lot of work to do but a lot of ways they can add.

Polanco has spent many years as a strong bat who can play the infield. He had an injury-marred 2024 but bounced back with the Mariners in 2025. He hit 26 home runs and slashed .265/.326/.495 for a 132 wRC. Early in the year, the Mariners frequently kept him in the designated hitter slot, as it seemed he wasn’t 100% recovered from his knee surgery. However, later in the year, he was playing second base fairly regularly.

MLBTR predicted Polanco could secure a three-year, $42MM deal this offseason. That would surpass the aforementioned Liriano deal, but only barely. The Bucs have Horwitz at first base but their infield is fairly open apart from that. As mentioned, Griffin coming up in 2026 to take over shortstop is a possibility but probably not something to be banked on today. Otherwise, Pittsburgh has a cluster of multi-positional infield guys like Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales, Nick Yorke, Tsung-Che Cheng and Enmanuel Valdéz.

Polanco would be an obvious upgrade over the guys in that cluster, who could each end up in utility roles or optioned to the minors. However, he’s sure to have interest elsewhere. For instance, the Mariners are known to want to bring him back.

O’Hearn wouldn’t be as smooth of a fit. He’s best suited to be a first baseman, where the Bucs have Horwitz. The designated hitter spot is open right now, though it’s possible the Pirates and Andrew McCutchen circle back to each other later. O’Hearn can play a bit of outfield and the Bucs do have room there next to Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, so perhaps there’s a way to make it work.

He is coming off a three-year run wherein he slashed .277/.343/.445 for a 121 wRC+. That’s a strong stretch but he’s a tad on the older side for a position player free agent since he’s 32. MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $26MM deal. If that proves to be correct, the Bucs wouldn’t even have to stretch into uncharted waters to get it done.

Okamoto is a bit more of a wild card since he’s coming over from Japan and isn’t proven as a major leaguer but reports suggest he should be a viable big league bat. He hit at least 27 home runs in seven straight seasons of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2018 to 2024. In 2025, he was limited by injury to just 69 games but still hit 15 homers and slashed .327/.416/.598 for a 210 wRC+. There are mixed opinions about whether he can stick at third base or if he’s destined to move to first.

MLBTR predicted him to land a four-year, $64MM deal. The signing club will also owe a posting fee to the Yomiuri Giants, relative to the size of the guarantee. If he does secure a $64MM deal, the posting fee would be $11.5MM. Put those two figures together and the Bucs might have to double their commitment to Liriano to get something done here.

As for the guys in St. Louis, the Cardinals are known to be entering a rebuilding phase. They kicked things off by dealing Sonny Gray to the Red Sox today, the first of several seller moves expected from that club this offseason. Donovan and Nootbaar are each controlled for another two years. Assuming the Cards don’t expect to return to contention in that window, it makes sense to listen on both. Gorman is controlled for three more seasons but is also less established as a viable big leaguer, so the Cards probably aren’t clinging to him too tightly.

Since he is a strong hitter and can play multiple positions, Donovan makes sense as a target for almost every team. He’s already been publicly connected to the Astros, Royals and Guardians but that’s presumably not an exhaustive list of his suitors. He has hit .282/.361/.411 for a 119 wRC+ in his career while playing all four infield spots and the outfield corners. He underwent sports hernia surgery at the end of the 2025 season but is expected to be fine by spring training.

Nootbaar doesn’t have Donovan’s versatility, as he’s just an outfielder. His bat is enticing but he’s coming off a down year and his health status is more questionable. From 2022 to 2024, he slashed .246/.351/.426 for a wRC+ of 118. In 2025, he dropped to a .234/.325/.361 line and 96 wRC+. He recently underwent surgery to shave down Haglund’s deformities on both heels and may not be fully recuperated by the start of 2026.

Gorman has real power and can take his walks but also has problems with strikeouts. He has 74 home runs in his 1,581 plate appearances but has also been punched out at an untenable 34% clip. Since the start of 2024, he has a .204/.284/.385 line and 87 wRC+. He has mostly played second base but has had a lot of time at third as well, in addition to brief showings at first and in left field.

Donovan is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make just $5.4MM next year, with Nootbaar projected for $5.7MM and Gorman $2.9MM. That makes them all more affordable than the free agent options but the Bucs would also have to send prospects the other way.

It can sometimes be difficult to pull off trades among teams who share a division but the Bucs don’t seem to mind. They recently lined up a notable deal with the Reds, sending Ke’Bryan Hayes to Cincinnati ahead of the deadline. If the Cards aren’t going to contend for the next few years, perhaps they wouldn’t be bothered if their former players are in Pittsburgh during that window.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

Rays Sign Jake Fraley

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3:27pm: Fraley is guaranteed $3MM, Topkin reports. He can earn an additional $400K via incentives.

3:18pm: The team has formally announced the signing.

2:41pm: The Rays are in agreement on a one-year, major league contract with outfielder Jake Fraley, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They non-tendered him last week but were reported to be interested in bringing Fraley back at a lesser rate than his projected arbitration price tag (which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged at $3.6MM). Fraley is represented by CAA.

Fraley, 30, was originally drafted by the Rays with the No. 77 overall pick back in 2016. He wound up in Seattle, where he’d go on to make his MLB debut, after being included in the trade that brought catcher Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay. Fraley played parts of three seasons with the M’s before again being traded, this time to Cincinnati as part of the return for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker.

In parts of four seasons with the Reds, Fraley hit .260/.336/.421 with 38 homers, 54 doubles and a pair of triples in 1202 plate appearances. Calf, shoulder and oblique injuries combined to limit him to just 76 games and 217 plate appearances this season, during which he batted .241/.332/.382. The Reds placed Fraley on waivers in August, at which point he was claimed by the Braves. Atlanta waived Fraley after the season, and the Rays claimed him — only to non-tender him last week. He’s now back on what are surely more favorable terms for the team.

Fraley doesn’t hit lefties whatsoever (.175/.271/.237 in 240 career plate appearances), but he’s a .261/.344/.432 hitter in more than 1300 attempts versus right-handed pitching. He runs well — this season’s average sprint speed of 28.4 ft/sec sat was a career-high and sat in the 77th percentile of big leaguers — and is a capable defender in either outfield corner. His arm strength checked into the 86th percentile of big league outfielders in 2025, per Statcast.

The addition of Fraley gives the Rays an even more crowded outfield mix. He’s a third pure lefty swinger joining Chandler Simpson and Josh Lowe, as well as the right-handed-hitting Jonny DeLuca and switch-hitting Jake Mangum in the mix for playing time. Lefties Tristan Peters and Richie Palacios are also on the 40-man roster. The exact manner in which playing time shakes out will hinge on subsequent moves and spring performance, but Fraley should see time in both corners and at designated hitter against right-handed pitching. He’s a good enough fielder and runner to profile as a late-game substitute, whether that’s as a defensive replacement, a pinch-runner or a pinch-hitter against a tough righty.

Tampa Bay currently projects for a $94MM payroll, per RosterResource. Fraley will obviously push that number north a bit. That’s already higher than the payroll in 2025, a season spent in a minor league park wherein the Rays ranked second-to-last in the majors in attendance. The Rays already made the somewhat surprising option to decline their $11MM club option on closer Pete Fairbanks, and it stands to reason that further veteran pieces could be moved. Brandon Lowe and his $11.5MM salary are available on the trade market, and speculatively speaking, Josh Lowe (projected $2.9MM salary) could be easier to part with now that Fraley is on board.

Rangers To Explore Catching Market

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The Rangers non-tendered catcher Jonah Heim last week, but not because they had a younger option to whom they plan to hand the reins. Veteran Kyle Higashioka is signed through 2026, but president of baseball operations Chris Young said this week that he still plans to explore the trade and free agent markets to bring in some additional help behind the dish, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News writes.

It’s not clear how heavy a workload Higashioka will shoulder in 2026, but he’ll turn 36 in April and logged career-high marks in games played (94) and plate appearances (327) last year. The longtime Yankee backstop slashed .241/.291/.403 with 11 home runs in that time. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as an above-average catcher, while Statcast had his glovework closer to average.

Presumably, whoever is brought into the fold would be expected to play in at least a 50-50 split, as it seems unlikely that Higashioka would be in line for a major boost in playing time at age 36. Whether it was due to the workload or was simply a matter of happenstance, Higashioka hit just .174/.255/.283 with an uncharacteristically high 29.4% strikeout rate from Sept. 1 onward.

Unfortunately for Young and the Rangers, it’s not a great time to be in the market for catching help. The free agent class is headlined by J.T. Realmuto, though the incumbent Phillies will make a strong push to retain him. (The Red Sox are also among the interested parties.) Victor Caratini presents a credible starter or half of a 50-50 timeshare. Beyond that, the open market is comprised primarily of rebound candidates — Danny Jansen, Gary Sanchez and old friend Mitch Garver among them.

The trade market doesn’t offer many clearly available alternatives. If the Twins continue their teardown, then Ryan Jeffers would surely be available ahead of his final season of club control. The Cardinals have received trade interest in their stable of catchers (Ivan Herrera, Jimmy Crooks, Pedro Pages) and recently bolstered their depth by re-signing Yohel Pozo, but there’s no urgency for them to move anyone from that bunch. It’s a similar story in Kansas City, where the Royals have Carter Jensen and Blake Mitchell behind team captain Salvador Perez. Both Jensen and Mitchell were popular asks at the trade deadline. (Perez, who recently signed an extension and has full no-trade rights, isn’t going anywhere.) The White Sox have gotten trade interest in both Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel, but there’s no rush to move either.

The Rangers, after trading Marcus Semien to the Mets in exchange for outfielder Brandon Nimmo over the weekend, project for about $169MM in 2026 payroll, per RosterResource. That’s miles below the $225MM figure the team fielded late in 2025. Nimmo said after the trade that Young made clear to him the club isn’t entering any kind of rebuild and still plans to contend for the playoffs in 2026, so even though the plan is to scale back payroll, Young & Co. should have space for subsequent additions.

Red Sox Interested In J.T. Realmuto

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The Red Sox are showing interest in free agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, per a report from Ken Rosenthal and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, though they note that there’s still an expectation Realmuto will re-sign with the Phillies.

Realmuto has been one of the best catchers of recent history, if not the very best. He has been a mainstay in the big leagues for over a decade now. From 2015 to 2025, he appeared in at least 125 games in all but one full season. The only exception was 2024, when a knee injury limited him to 99 contests. For that 11-year span, he led the majors among primary catchers with 1,362 games played and 36.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

The question now is what he can be in the future. He will turn 35 years old in March. In 2025, he slashed .257/.315/.384. That resulted in a 94 wRC+, indicating he was 6% below league average. That’s still passable for a catcher but it was the first time Realmuto finished below the century mark since 2015. His glovework also seems to have tailed off a bit, per outlets like FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus. He can still throw out attempted base stealers and is decent in terms of blocking but all outlets agree his framing has been subpar for the past three seasons.

Flaws aside, Realmuto is still the top free agent catcher this winter. MLBTR predicted him to land a two-year, $30MM deal, though a three-year isn’t totally out of the question. Other on the market include Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen. The Rangers recently added Jonah Heim to the pile when they non-tendered him last week.

Many in the baseball world expect Realmuto to end up back in Philadelphia. He has been with the Phillies since 2019 and has already re-signed with them as a free agent once. As mentioned in the report from The Athletic, his family owns a home in Clearwater, Florida, the spring training home of the Phillies. While Realmuto is a free agent, the Phils currently have Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs as their top catchers. They have to do something to improve their catching corps. However, the Phils have a bunch of other priorities this winter. They also want to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and remake their outfield.

For the Red Sox, there’s little harm in checking in to see if there’s a chance they can pry Realmuto away, as their catching group could be strengthened. Carlos Narváez had a nice rookie season in 2025 but he’s still fairly inexperienced and trailed off as the season went along. He hit .241/.306/.419 for a 97 wRC+ for the whole year but just .187/.233/.387 for a 64 wRC+ in the second half. Connor Wong seemed to take a step forward in 2024 but then hit just .190/.262/.238 in 2025.

Both of those catchers are still optionable, so it’s possible for the Sox to sign Realmuto and bump one down to Triple-A as depth. Realmuto’s right-handed bat would fit nicely on a lineup that leans left-handed right now, though Narváez and Wong are also righties. It’s also possible the Sox would be drawn to Realmuto as a veteran clubhouse leader for a team that skews young and inexperienced.

The Sox will have to balance that pursuit with other priorities. One big target for them this winter was to bolster the rotation and they acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals earlier today. They will probably look for more pitching and could try to re-sign Alex Bregman.

RosterResource projects the Sox for a $177MM payroll and $223MM competitive balance tax figure. Last year, those numbers finished at $207MM and $245MM. That could give them something like $20-3oMM to play with if they are willing to spend similarly in 2026, though it’s possible their playoff berth in 2025 prompts them to push things up higher.

Their ability to pursue a notable catching upgrade will depend on what they have to spend and how things proceed with their other targets. Even if they can’t pluck Realmuto from Philadelphia, perhaps they will turn to some of the other available backstops.

Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images

Paul Skenes Tops 2025 Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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Pirates ace Paul Skenes topped the 2025 pre-arbitration bonus pool, taking home just over $3.4MM, per the Associated Press. He was followed by Cristopher Sánchez of the Phillies at $2.7MM and Hunter Brown of the Astros at $2.2MM.

The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement introduced the pre-arb bonus pool as a way for younger players to get paid earlier in their careers. Every team pays roughly $1.67MM into the pool, which adds up to a $50MM total. That money is then dispersed to pre-arb players, even if they have signed an early-career extension. In many cases, the pool is a greater source of income than a player’s salary. The league minimum was $760K in 2025 and many pre-arb players would have played the season getting paid something close to that.

The payouts are initially determined based on awards voting. Winning MVP or Cy Young nets a player $2.5MM. Finishing second place leads to $1.75MM, with $1.5MM for third place and $1MM for fourth or fifth place. Winning Rookie of the Year translates to $750K with runners-up getting $500K. Players get $1MM for being named first-team All-MLB and $500K for second-team.

Players cannot double up on those awards-based tallies. They will receive the highest of those numbers they earn. Skenes won the National League Cy Young Award, so that accounted for $2.5MM of his total payout. He was also named first-team All-MLB but did not get an extra $1MM for that.

The remainder of the pool is then paid out to the top 100 qualified players based on a Wins Above Replacement formula that has been agreed to by Major League Baseball and the Major League Players Association.

Right-hander Dylan Cease, then with the White Sox, topped the pool in its inaugural year. Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez came out on top in 2023, followed by Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. in 2024. The Associated Press link above has details on the payouts for every player who qualified, so curious readers are encouraged to click that link for the full info. Here are the ten players who received at least $1MM:

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.

Sonny in Boston

  • Was this a wise move by the Red Sox?  Will it help make the playoffs or hurt in taking up too much money?

Steve Adams

  • They’re paying Gray $21MM. That’s not much for Boston. I think they overpaid a bit in terms of the talent they gave up but don’t consider it like an egregious, “what are they thinking?!” style of move. In general, I think teams are too reluctant to trade prospects, so it’s kind of nice to see a trade where it actually feels like the buying club gave up a bit too much.
  • In general, I think teams are too reluctant to trade prospects, so it’s kind of nice to see a trade where it actually feels like the buying club gave up a bit too much. Boston is better with Gray than without. Hard stop. It helps them in 2026… maybe hurts down the line if Clarke ever develops even below-average command.

Transaction Thinker

  • The Sonny Gray article mentioned that it’s been years since a mutual option was exercised by both sides; I was wondering which player/team was involved.

Steve Adams

  • Aramis Ramirez and the Brewers in the final season of Ramirez’s career
  • The offseason prior, Matt Belisle and the Rockies both picked up their ends of a mutual option
  • I’ve been with MLBTR full-time since 2013 (which is insane to think about, jeez) — and those are the only two times a mutual option has been exercised in my entire time here.

Read more

Cardinals Trade Sonny Gray To Red Sox

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12:05pm: The two teams have announced the trade. The Cardinals will also receive a player to be named later or cash, per the announcement.

10:25am: The rebuild is underway in St. Louis. The Cardinals and Red Sox are reportedly in agreement on a trade sending right-hander Sonny Gray to Boston in exchange for righty Richard Fitts and left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clarke. The Cardinals are including $20MM of cash to help offset Gray’s salary.

Gray, who turned 36 earlier this month, opted not to waive his full no-trade clause last offseason when the Cardinals laid out their plan to take a step back and focus on player development rather than their typical win-now mantra. Following the team’s playoff miss in 2025, however, Gray publicly acknowledged that he would “definitely” consider trade scenarios as the Cardinals lean even further into a multi-year rebuilding effort. “I signed here two years ago with the expectation of winning and trying to win, and that hasn’t played out that way,” he said in September. “I want to win.”

He’ll get that opportunity to win in Boston, joining a Red Sox rotation headlined by Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet and an offense anchored by budding superstar Roman Anthony. Boston secured a Wild Card berth in the American League this past season, and though they fell to the Yankees two games to one in that series, they’re a clear win-now club with postseason aspirations. The same cannot be said for the Cardinals.

Gray was heading into the final guaranteed season of a three-year, $75MM contract originally signed in St. Louis, when he was coming off his own Cy Young runner-up performance with the 2023 Twins. It was a heavily backloaded contract, paying the right-hander $35MM in 2026 plus a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option for the 2027 season. The contract stipulated that even if the option was picked up, Gray could opt out and head back into free agency.

That deal has been slightly restructured. The new arrangement pays Gray $31MM in 2026 and includes a $10MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027. The amended deal reinforces the fact that Gray is a one-year rental — it’s been more than a decade since a mutual option was exercised by both parties in MLB — but it also comes with some perks for him.

Gray is now guaranteed an extra million dollars — likely a kicker for him to waive his no-trade protection — and he’ll now receive the full buyout on his 2027 option. Under the previous contract, if the Red Sox had picked up Gray’s $30MM option, he’d have forfeited the $5MM buyout by opting back into free agency. Now, he’ll receive a fully guaranteed $41MM for one year.

Because the Cardinals are kicking in $20MM, only $21MM of Gray’s $41MM guarantee will count against the Red Sox’ luxury tax total. Gray has already received a qualifying offer in the past (from the Twins in ’23), so he won’t be eligible to receive one from the Red Sox at season’s end.

Gray tossed 180 2/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball in 2025 and had a more encouraging 26.7% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate. Metrics like SIERA (3.29) and FIP (3.39) feel he was far better than his earned run average.

By today’s standards, Gray is a workhorse. With the exception of the shortened 2020 season (when he made 11 of 12 possible starts), the former first-round pick has started at least 24 games every year since 2019, averaging 29 starts per 162-game season in that time. Gray hasn’t gotten back to the level of performance he displayed in that second-place Cy Young finish with Minnesota, but he posted a 4.07 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 43.2% grounder rate in 347 innings across his two seasons in St. Louis.

Gray will join Crochet and Brayan Bello in the top three spots of manager Alex Cora’s rotation. The remaining two places will be sorted out either later this offseason or next spring. Rotation candidates include veteran Patrick Sandoval (who signed a two-year deal last offseason while rehabbing Tommy John surgery), righty Kutter Crawford (who didn’t pitch in ’25 owing to oblique and wrist injuries, the latter requiring surgery), Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, Hunter Dobbins and Luis Perales.

The Sox have several other starting pitchers on their 40-man roster, including a few just-added names (David Sandlin, Tyler Uberstine, Shane Drohan) ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline. It’s a deep crop of arms that positions Boston well, both in terms of navigating inevitable injuries next year and in exploring the trade market for further roster upgrades.

Of course, the Red Sox don’t have to exclusively shop on the trade market for upgrades. Including Gray’s $21MM, the Sox are now projected for about $176.75MM in 2026 payroll, per RosterResource. That’s more than $30MM shy of last year’s spending, and it’s certainly feasible that ownership would push the envelope even further. Boston has trotted out Opening Day payrolls as high as $236MM in the past. The addition of Gray leaves them about $21MM shy of the first tier of luxury tax penalization. The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in two of the past four seasons, including 2025. Simply put, there’s ample room for additional spending.

For the Cardinals, the trade trims $20MM off the books and brings in a pair of promising arms. Fitts is big league ready and could step right into the St. Louis rotation. The 25-year-old (26 next month) made 11 appearances for the Red Sox in 2025, including 10 starts. He was tagged for a 5.00 ERA in that time due to an extreme susceptibility to home runs (11 homers, or 2.20 HR/9). However, Fitts posted a respectable 20.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in the majors, and he was solid in the minors as well (3.60 ERA, 21.3 K%, 8.7 BB% in 30 innings).

Originally a sixth-round pick by the Yankees back in 2021, Fitts landed in Boston by way of the 2023 Alex Verdugo trade. (Though new Cardinals president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom formerly ran the front office in Boston, he’d already been replaced by Craig Breslow by the time of that trade, so there’s no prior connection between Fitts and Bloom.) Fitts ranked 11th among Red Sox farmhands in 2024 and 12th in 2025, per Baseball America, whose scouting report pegged him as a back-of-the-rotation starter or multi-inning reliever.

Fitts averaged a hearty 95.9 mph on his four-seamer in 2025 and complemented the pitch with a slider, curveball and newly implemented sinker. BA’s scouting report on the righty noted that he struggles to miss bats within the zone, and the numbers have thus far borne that out. Fitts missed bats off the plate with his sweeper/slider, but opponents made contact on 87.5% of his pitches within the strike zone — a couple percentage points higher than the 85.4% league average. The addition of that sinker/two-seamer looks to have helped Fitts bolster his ground-ball rate, as it enjoyed a nice bump both in Triple-A and the majors, now sitting at 43.6% — just north of the 41.8% league average.

Whether Fitts settles in as a fourth starter or moves into a bullpen role, he should pitch plenty of innings in St. Louis this season. He’s controllable for a full six seasons, as he finished the year eight days shy of one full year of major league service. Fitts also still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, which only gives the Cardinals more flexibility with him in the years ahead.

Clarke, 22, was Boston’s fifth-round pick in 2024. He sat fourth among Red Sox prospects (and 86th in the game overall) on the midseason rankings from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen. Clarke ranked fifth among Red Sox prosects on MLB.com’s midseason rankings. He was not included in Boston’s top 10 on yesterday’s latest prospect rankings from Baseball America.

Though he was drafted in ’24, Clarke didn’t make his pro debut until ’25. He split this past season between the Red Sox’ Low-A and High-A affiliates, working to a combined 4.03 ERA in 38 innings (14 starts). Clarke sits 97 mph with his heater and draws praise for a plus-plus (70-grade) slider. He currently lacks an average third pitch, however, and his command is clearly a work in progress. That velocity and slider combo blew hitters away in the low minors (34.5% strikeout rate), but Clarke also walked a whopping 15.5% of his opponents — including an 18.1% walk rate in High-A against more advanced hitters.

Listed at 6’4″ and 220 pounds, Clarke has a starter’s build and two potent weapons in his arsenal. The new Bloom-led Cardinals will be tasked with refining Clarke’s command and perhaps incorporating a third pitch to help him more capably combat right-handers, who drew a walk in nearly 18% of their plate appearances against Clarke. If Clarke can’t find a third pitch or hone his command any further, it’s easy to imagine that fastball/slider combo playing up in a late-inning relief role.

Overall, it’s a nice return for the Cardinals, who secure an MLB-ready arm and a high-risk but high-upside prospect — all while trimming $20MM off the books. Today’s trade only further cements that the Cardinals are shifting their focus to the future. Further trades are sure to follow, with Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar among the possibilities.

As for the Red Sox, they’ll pay a relatively steep price (both in terms of dollars and talent) to add a durable veteran starter with plus rate stats and a nice postseason résumé (3.26 ERA in 30 1/3 innings). Gray clearly makes them better, and the Boston front office seems comfortable paying a higher short-term price to maintain some long-term flexibility. Whether they pursue further upgrades in the rotation or now turn their attention to the infield corners, the bullpen or their oft-discussed outfield logjam, the Red Sox have payroll space and a nice stock of young pitching to give them plenty of options in further augmenting their 2026 roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Gray was being traded to Boston. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cardinals’ return. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported specifics surrounding the slight restructuring of Gray’s contract. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported the specific amount of cash Boston was receiving from St. Louis.

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