MLB Trade Rumors

The rebuild is underway in St. Louis. The Cardinals and Red Sox announced a trade sending right-hander Sonny Gray and cash considerations to Boston in exchange for righty Richard Fitts, left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clarke and a player to be named later or cash. The Cardinals are reportedly including $20MM to help offset Gray’s salary.

Gray, who turned 36 earlier this month, opted not to waive his full no-trade clause last offseason when the Cardinals laid out their plan to take a step back and focus on player development rather than their typical win-now mantra. Following the team’s playoff miss in 2025, however, Gray publicly acknowledged that he would “definitely” consider trade scenarios as the Cardinals lean even further into a multi-year rebuilding effort. “I signed here two years ago with the expectation of winning and trying to win, and that hasn’t played out that way,” he said in September. “I want to win.”

He’ll get that opportunity to win in Boston, joining a Red Sox rotation headlined by Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet and an offense anchored by budding superstar Roman Anthony. Boston secured a Wild Card berth in the American League this past season, and though they fell to the Yankees two games to one in that series, they’re a clear win-now club with postseason aspirations. The same cannot be said for the Cardinals.

Gray was heading into the final guaranteed season of a three-year, $75MM contract originally signed in St. Louis, when he was coming off his own Cy Young runner-up performance with the 2023 Twins. It was a heavily backloaded contract, paying the right-hander $35MM in 2026 plus a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option for the 2027 season. The contract stipulated that even if the option was picked up, Gray could opt out and head back into free agency.

That deal has been slightly restructured. The new arrangement pays Gray $31MM in 2026 and includes a $10MM buyout on a $30MM mutual option for 2027. The amended deal reinforces the fact that Gray is a one-year rental — it’s been more than a decade since a mutual option was exercised by both parties in MLB — but it also comes with some perks for him.

Gray is now guaranteed an extra million dollars — likely a kicker for him to waive his no-trade protection — and he’ll now receive the full buyout on his 2027 option. Under the previous contract, if the Red Sox had picked up Gray’s option, he’d have forfeited the $5MM buyout by opting back into free agency. Now, he’ll receive a fully guaranteed $41MM for one year.

Because the Cardinals are kicking in $20MM, only $21MM of Gray’s $41MM guarantee will count against the Red Sox’ luxury tax total. Gray has already received a qualifying offer in the past (from the Twins in ’23), so he won’t be eligible to receive one from the Red Sox at season’s end.

Gray tossed 180 2/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball in 2025 and had a more encouraging 26.7% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate. Metrics like SIERA (3.29) and FIP (3.39) feel he was far better than his earned run average.

By today’s standards, Gray is a workhorse. With the exception of the shortened 2020 season (when he made 11 of 12 possible starts), the former first-round pick has started at least 24 games every year since 2019, averaging 29 starts per 162-game season in that time. Gray hasn’t gotten back to the level of performance he displayed in that second-place Cy Young finish with Minnesota, but he posted a 4.07 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 43.2% grounder rate in 347 innings across his two seasons in St. Louis.

Gray will join Crochet and Brayan Bello in the top three spots of manager Alex Cora’s rotation. The remaining two places will be sorted out either later this offseason or next spring. Rotation candidates include veteran Patrick Sandoval (who signed a two-year deal last offseason while rehabbing Tommy John surgery), righty Kutter Crawford (who didn’t pitch in ’25 owing to oblique and wrist injuries, the latter requiring surgery), Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, Hunter Dobbins and Luis Perales.

The Sox have several other starting pitchers on their 40-man roster, including a few just-added names (David Sandlin, Tyler Uberstine, Shane Drohan) ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline. It’s a deep crop of arms that positions Boston well, both in terms of navigating inevitable injuries next year and in exploring the trade market for further roster upgrades.

Of course, the Red Sox don’t have to exclusively shop on the trade market for upgrades. Including Gray’s $21MM, the Sox are now projected for about $176.75MM in 2026 payroll, per RosterResource. That’s more than $30MM shy of last year’s spending, and it’s certainly feasible that ownership would push the envelope even further. Boston has trotted out Opening Day payrolls as high as $236MM in the past. The addition of Gray leaves them about $21MM shy of the first tier of luxury tax penalization. The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in two of the past four seasons, including 2025. Simply put, there’s ample room for additional spending.

For the Cardinals, the trade trims $20MM off the books and brings in a pair of promising arms. Fitts is big league ready and could step right into the St. Louis rotation. The 25-year-old (26 next month) made 11 appearances for the Red Sox in 2025, including 10 starts. He was tagged for a 5.00 ERA in that time due to an extreme susceptibility to home runs (11 homers, or 2.20 HR/9). However, Fitts posted a respectable 20.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in the majors, and he was solid in the minors as well (3.60 ERA, 21.3 K%, 8.7 BB% in 30 innings).

Originally a sixth-round pick by the Yankees back in 2021, Fitts landed in Boston by way of the 2023 Alex Verdugo trade. (Though new Cardinals president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom formerly ran the front office in Boston, he’d already been replaced by Craig Breslow by the time of that trade, so there’s no prior connection between Fitts and Bloom.) Fitts ranked 11th among Red Sox farmhands in 2024 and 12th in 2025, per Baseball America, whose scouting report pegged him as a back-of-the-rotation starter or multi-inning reliever.

Fitts averaged a hearty 95.9 mph on his four-seamer in 2025 and complemented the pitch with a slider, curveball and newly implemented sinker. BA’s scouting report on the righty noted that he struggles to miss bats within the zone, and the numbers have thus far borne that out. Fitts missed bats off the plate with his sweeper/slider, but opponents made contact on 87.5% of his pitches within the strike zone — a couple percentage points higher than the 85.4% league average. The addition of that sinker/two-seamer looks to have helped Fitts bolster his ground-ball rate, as it enjoyed a nice bump both in Triple-A and the majors, now sitting at 43.6% — just north of the 41.8% league average.

Whether Fitts settles in as a fourth starter or moves into a bullpen role, he should pitch plenty of innings in St. Louis this season. He’s controllable for a full six seasons, as he finished the year eight days shy of one full year of major league service. Fitts also still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, which only gives the Cardinals more flexibility with him in the years ahead.

Clarke, 22, was Boston’s fifth-round pick in 2024. He sat fourth among Red Sox prospects (and 86th in the game overall) on the midseason rankings from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen. Clarke ranked fifth among Red Sox prosects on MLB.com’s midseason rankings. He was not included in Boston’s top 10 on yesterday’s latest prospect rankings from Baseball America.

Though he was drafted in ’24, Clarke didn’t make his pro debut until ’25. He split this past season between the Red Sox’ Low-A and High-A affiliates, working to a combined 4.03 ERA in 38 innings (14 starts). Clarke sits 97 mph with his heater and draws praise for a plus-plus (70-grade) slider. He currently lacks an average third pitch, however, and his command is clearly a work in progress. That velocity and slider combo blew hitters away in the low minors (34.5% strikeout rate), but Clarke also walked a whopping 15.5% of his opponents — including an 18.1% walk rate in High-A against more advanced hitters.

Listed at 6’4″ and 220 pounds, Clarke has a starter’s build and two potent weapons in his arsenal. The new Bloom-led Cardinals will be tasked with refining Clarke’s command and perhaps incorporating a third pitch to help him more capably combat right-handers, who drew a walk in nearly 18% of their plate appearances against Clarke. If Clarke can’t find a third pitch or hone his command any further, it’s easy to imagine that fastball/slider combo playing up in a late-inning relief role.

Overall, it’s a nice return for the Cardinals, who secure an MLB-ready arm and a high-risk but high-upside prospect — all while trimming $20MM off the books. Today’s trade only further cements that the Cardinals are shifting their focus to the future. Further trades are sure to follow, with Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar among the possibilities.

As for the Red Sox, they’ll pay a relatively steep price (both in terms of dollars and talent) to add a durable veteran starter with plus rate stats and a nice postseason résumé (3.26 ERA in 30 1/3 innings). Gray clearly makes them better, and the Boston front office seems comfortable paying a higher short-term price to maintain some long-term flexibility. Whether they pursue further upgrades in the rotation or now turn their attention to the infield corners, the bullpen or their oft-discussed outfield logjam, the Red Sox have payroll space and a nice stock of young pitching to give them plenty of options in further augmenting their 2026 roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Gray was being traded to Boston. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cardinals’ return. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported specifics surrounding the slight restructuring of Gray’s contract. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reported the specific amount of cash Boston was receiving from St. Louis.