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Twins To Sign Victor Caratini

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The Twins and catcher Victor Caratini are in agreement on a two-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The ACES client gets $14MM, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Minnesota has a full 40-man roster and will need a corresponding move to make this official.

Caratini, now 32, was a free agent a couple of years ago. He signed a two-year, $12MM deal with the Astros at that time. That pact ended up working out fairly well for Houston. The switch hitter got into 201 games over those two seasons and stepped to the plate 660 times. His 7% walk rate was on the low side but he hit 20 home runs and kept his strikeout rate down to a modest 17.9% clip. He had a combined .263 /.329/.406 line with the Astros, production which translated to a wRC+ of 108.

His work behind the plate has been more of a mixed bag. Outlets like FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus give him solid framing grades. FanGraphs and Statcast don’t look kindly on his work with the running game but both BP and Statcast are fond of his blocking skills.

The overall package was still worth 2.7 wins above replacement over the past two seasons, according to FanGraphs. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Caratini for a $14MM deal over two years. He has hit that mark exactly.

More to come.

Poll: What’s Next For The Red Sox Infield?

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The Red Sox were faced with a tough loss over the weekend when star third baseman Alex Bregman left the team to sign with the Cubs on a five-year, $175MM deal. That contract came in just $10MM ahead of Boston’s own offer in terms of sticker price, but deferred money and the lack of a no-trade clause further depreciated the Red Sox’ offer relative to that of the Cubs. The loss of Bregman left chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to search for a pivot, and he found just that yesterday when he signed southpaw Ranger Suarez to a five-year deal.

The $130MM pact places Suarez alongside Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray as a member of Boston’s front of the rotation headed into the season, but it did little to address the hole that Bregman’s departure creates on the infield. Yesterday’s deal helped to bring down the temperature among fans in Boston and ease the pressure on Breslow to find a star, but it’s not hard to see why an addition could still be attractive given the number of question marks and overall lack of impact all around the roster.

Trevor Story delivered a 20/20 season last year but will be 33 years old this year and just played 100 games in a season for the first time since 2021. Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell entered last season as two of the game’s top prospects but Mayer has a checkered injury history of his own while there’s been some indications the Red Sox could prefer Campbell in the outfield rather than the infield. Neither was an above-average hitter in 2025, either. While both are young enough for a potential big step forward, a team with World Series aspirations like the Red Sox would be taking a big risk if they hang their hopes on young talents figuring it out. Ceddanne Rafaela has experience at second base, but is one of baseball’s top defensive center fielders and might be wasted at the keystone.

It would be easy to say the Red Sox should simply sign one of the top infielders available in free agency, and there’s certainly merit to the argument. The Red Sox are a big market club that just dumped Rafael Devers’s salary on the Giants over the summer. RosterResource estimates a $266MM payroll for the club in terms of luxury tax dollars headed into 2026, a figure that falls $20MM behind the Yankees and $45MM behind the Blue Jays even when looking only at their rivals in the AL East.

On the other hand, Boston’s payroll is already the highest it’s ever been in terms of luxury tax dollars. Even the actual cash outlay is second only to the 2022 team in the post-Mookie Betts era. Trading away someone like Jordan Hicks or Masataka Yoshida could help but neither has huge trade value right now.

But they don’t have a ton of options left in free agency. Bregman is a Cub and Bo Bichette reportedly has an agreement in place with the Mets. Eugenio Suarez is still out there but it’s unclear how willing the Sox are to spend on him.

Perhaps the trade market is the best bet. the addition of Suarez only further bolstered a rotation that has an excess of quality options. Using a young pitcher like Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, or Kyle Harrison as part of a package to land an impact infielder certainly seems attractive. The team also has an excess of outfield talent at the moment, particularly given the fact that both Yoshida and Triston Casas figure to be battling for playing time at DH. Trading Casas or an outfielder like Jarren Duran could make sense to clean up that logjam somewhat.

The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Ketel Marte off the market but recent reporting has suggested that maybe Boston will try to change that stance. Even if he’s not realistic, there are still plenty of intriguing players who could be available via trade. Boston could make a third trade with the Cardinals and their newly-minted president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom in order to bring super utility man Brendan Donovan into the fold, though he would do little to balance a heavily left-handed lineup. Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner could be another option, though all indications are that Chicago would need to be overwhelmed in order to move their longtime infielder. It could be easier to pry away Matt Shaw, but the youngster isn’t much more well-established than Mayer and Campbell at this point, which could make him an imperfect fit for the team.

Perhaps the most attractive trade candidate out there at the moment would be Astros infielder Isaac Paredes, who was pushed off third base in Houston by the acquisition of Carlos Correa and has no clear path to everyday at-bats with his current team given the presence of Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez at first base and DH respectively. Paredes is no match for Bregman defensively, but Bregman himself showed that a player who benefits from the Crawford Boxes in Houston can enjoy similar success hitting off/over the Green Monster at Fenway Park. As a 124 wRC+ hitter over the past four years, Paredes would add a viable middle-of-the-order bat to the Boston infield and create an intriguing, high-upside corner infield duo with newly-minted first baseman Willson Contreras.

Perfect as that fit might seem on paper, however, the Astros have signaled their reluctance to moving him — despite what looks like an overcrowded infield mix. Regular playing time for Paredes would be just one Spring Training injury away, and GM Dana Brown said publicly in November that he has “no interest” in moving the righty-swinging slugger. With free agent alternatives dwindling on the open market, plenty of suitors for both Donovan and Hoerner that the Red Sox would need to compete with, and hesitance on the part of the Cubs and Astros to part with their players, pulling off a trade could be easier said than done at this stage of the offseason.

That leaves us to circle back to the possibility that the team doesn’t add a regular to the lineup this winter. Mayer and Campbell could enter camp as the favorites for third and second base respectively, though if the team remains committed to trying Campbell in the outfield, David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez could form a platoon at the keystone or Rafaela could shift back to the infield. If the Red Sox were to go this route, they would surely add a veteran infielder like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Yoan Moncada, or Ramon Urias to the lineup in order to provide some competition for the youngsters in Spring Training and overall improve the depth of what would be an injury-plagued infield mix. While it would be a risky move to rely mostly on internal options, it would offer Mayer and Campbell the best opportunity to carve out everyday roles for themselves and might be the only option at the team’s disposal if they aren’t able to pull off some kind of trade in the ten weeks remaining before Opening Day.

How do MLBTR readers think the Red Sox will look to round out their infield? Will they turn to a free agent like Suarez, even if it means finding a way to dump salary elsewhere on the roster? Could they instead try and work out a trade for someone like Paredes, Hoerner, or Donovan? Or will they instead rely primarily on their internal options? Have your say in the poll below:

Cardinals, Mets Among Teams Interested In Griffin Canning

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The Cardinals and Mets both have some interest in free agent righty Griffin Canning, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Canning spent the 2025 season with the Mets after signing a one-year, make-good deal in free agency last year. He started the season well before running into a brief rough patch and then suffering a torn Achilles tendon before he really had a chance to bounce back. The White Sox are also known to have interest.

A former second-round pick and highly regarded prospect with the Angels, Canning has shown glimpses of the upside he had during his minor league days but hasn’t found much consistency in the majors. Part of that is due to persistent injuries, as he’s missed time in his career due to not just last year’s Achilles tear but also elbow, groin and calf injuries over the years. The Angels traded him to the Braves for Jorge Soler just hours into the 2024-25 offseason in what amounted to a salary dump for Atlanta; Canning was non-tendered just a couple weeks later.

After signing a one-year deal with the Mets, Canning looked like a quality bargain to begin the season. Spring injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas opened a rotation spot, and Canning ran with that opportunity. Through his first nine starts, he posted a terrific 2.47 ERA with slightly better-than-average strikeout and walk rates (23.2% and 8.6%, respectively) and an excellent 55.2% ground-ball rate. He had some good fortune in terms of balls in play, home runs and strand rate, but even more bearish metrics like SIERA (3.84) and FIP (3.92) still graded him as a solid mid-rotation arm.

Canning hit some trouble in mid-May, walking 18 hitters over his next 26 1/3 innings. He didn’t get a real chance to bounce back from that rough patch. During the third inning of a road start against the Braves, he suffered a torn Achilles tendon during his follow-through on what otherwise looked like a perfectly innocuous pitch. Canning had to be helped off the field and underwent season-ending surgery. His 2025 campaign ended with a 3.77 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 50.9% ground-ball rate. The bump in grounders was particularly notable, given that he’d been a fly-ball pitcher with the Halos. The Mets made some changes to his pitch selection and also altered the shape/release points of his slider and changeup.

Another one-year deal for Canning seems likely after the way his 2025 season ended. He ought to command more than the $4.25MM guarantee he received last winter — at least as long as he’s healthy. Heyman writes that Canning is expected to be ready “around” Opening Day, so it’s not yet clear whether he’ll need an IL stint to begin the season (and may not become fully clear until afer he’s signed and spring training is underway).

The Mets and Cardinals both make varying levels of sense. New York obviously liked Canning last winter and had to be encouraged by how he performed with input from their staff. They’re looking for depth and have been open to trade offers on both Kodai Senga and David Peterson.

The Cardinals are an even more sensible fit. They’re in the early stages of a rebuild over in St. Louis, and Canning could provide a veteran arm and some upside who could play his way into trade chip status this summer. After trading Sonny Gray and seeing Miles Mikolas become a free agent, the Cardinals’ rotation currently mix includes Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, free agent pickup Dustin May and trade acquisitions Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins. Prospects Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence and Brycen Mautz could debut at some point in 2026 as well. That’s a lot of arms but far less certainty, making the addition of Canning or another veteran a sensible pursuit.

Phillies Reportedly Made Seven-Year Offer To Bo Bichette

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The Mets and Bo Bichette reportedly have a deal in place, a three-year deal with a huge average annual value and opt-outs after each season. It seems he almost went the more traditional route. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phillies thought they were going to land Bichette with a $200MM deal over seven years until the Mets swooped in with their offer after losing Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers last night. Matt Gelb of The Athletic says the offer was between $190MM and $200MM.

The full breakdown of the offer from Philly isn’t known, so it’s hard to fully compare the two paths. For instance, the Philly offer may or may not have contained deferred money or opt-outs, which could change the perception of its value.

But the basic structure is more in line with expectations from the beginning of the offseason. Back in November, MLBTR predicted Bichette for a $208MM deal over eight years, an average annual value of $26MM. Philly’s offer, assuming no deferrals were involved, would have been a slightly lower guarantee but at a higher AAV of $28.6MM.

That kind of deal would have been in line with other deals received by All-Star middle infielders in recent years. Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien, Javier Báez and Trevor Story all received guarantees between $140MM and $182MM in recent years, on deals of either six or seven years in length.

Bichette has decided to go a different route and it’s understandable why he would. He is still quite young, only 27 years old, turning 28 in March. With this Mets deal, the specific structure hasn’t yet been reported, but it’s a $42MM average annual value. If he stays healthy and productive, he can bank more than 20% of what the Phils offered him in one year, then return to the open market in search of another long-term offer. If he has an injury-shortened season or his performance takes a downturn, he can decline his opt-out and continue earning at a high rate. Even if he plays out all three years of his deal with the Mets, he will have earned almost two thirds of the Philly offer. He’ll be going into his age-31 season and could look to make up the difference then.

He can also re-evaluate the spending environment more generally. The current collective bargaining agreement expires next winter. The industry is expecting a lockout, just as there was the last time a CBA expired, but that lockout resulted in gains for free agents. The competitive balance tax thresholds went up, which helped spur spending over the past few years. The owners are expected to push for a salary cap next winter but that’s nothing new for them. They’ve pushed for that before without the players agreeing to it, so it’s entirely possible the players make gains in the CBT area again.

Both Tucker and Bichette decided to go the short-term, high-AAV route. Usually, top free agents go out looking for the security of a long-term deal but pivot to these kinds of arrangements when they don’t find what they’re looking for. In at least Bichette’s case, it appears he didn’t have to go this way but chose to. It’s possible Tucker did as well. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that he had long-term offers, getting up to even ten years. No specifics have been reported on those offers but they may have come from the Blue Jays. Recent reporting has suggested they were more willing to go long-term than the Mets or Dodgers.

It’s difficult to say if this is indicative of some sort of trend from the team perspective. Ultimately, we’re talking about two data points here with Tucker and Bichette. It’s understandable why the teams would want to avoid long-term commitments. Signing a top free agent often involves offering him a longer deal than other teams are willing to do. Those later years can be painful as a player pushes into his late 30s and his production declines.

But convincing a player to go the short-term route usually means cranking up the AAV levels. The teams who can most afford to do that usually have high payrolls to begin with, and therefore high tax bills. With the Tucker deal, the Dodgers are not going only to pay him a $57.1MM AAV, factoring in deferrals. They’re also going to pay a 110% tax on that AAV, leading to a tax bill of almost $63MM. That means they’re valuing Tucker’s 2026 campaign around $120MM. Unless they dip below the top tax bracket in 2027, the same will be true for that season.

The Dodgers seemingly preferred this route due to various circumstances. They have a relatively old roster, with many of their core players in their mid-30s. They presumably know that they can’t field a successful team like that forever and need younger players to step up. Many of their top prospects are outfielders who have not yet reached Triple-A and are therefore still a bit over the horizon. Tucker’s short-term deal is therefore a perfect bridge to that next era.

For the Mets, president of baseball operations David Stearns got his job with the club already having a lot of money on the books and he seemingly has a reluctance to adding to it. Despite having access to Steve Cohen’s checkbook, he has mostly capped the club at three-year deals. An exception was made for Juan Soto’s epic deal, though he was a special case as a free agent going into his age-26 season.

Apart from Soto, Stearns hasn’t given anyone a deal longer than three years. They reportedly stretched a bit by offering Tucker four years, though he took a very similar offer from the Dodgers. The Mets then pivoted to give a strong three-year deal to Bichette. It seems the club would rather spend more money now, both in terms of salary and taxes, in order to not bog down the long-term picture with deals for aging players. The full details of the Bichette deal with the Mets haven’t been released but the Mets will probably pay more than $40MM in annual taxes, on top of what Bichette will receive.

That’s consistent with some of their other pursuits. They swapped out the five years remaining on Brandon Nimmo’s deal for Marcus Semien, signed for three years but at a higher rate. They seemed unwilling to go beyond three years for either Pete Alonso or Edwin Díaz, who both signed elsewhere. The Mets have also been on the lookout for starting pitching but reportedly have a preference to avoid long-term deals there as well.

It’s unclear if these kinds of preferences are going to be fairly permanent or if they’re due to current circumstances. TheMets have a decent veteran contingent on the roster but are waiting for younger guys like Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Carson Benge, Jett Williams and others to form a new young core. Perhaps as those players become established at the big league level, and big-money contracts expire, the front office will be more willing to make long-term investments.

Whether or not this is a trend will surely depend on the upcoming collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA, negotiated during the 2021-22 lockout, saw the tax brackets get pushed up noticeably. That has seemingly worked out fairly well for players, as spending has stayed robust since that CBA was signed. Some teams will argue that this kind of spending is why a salary cap is necessary but they benefit from the current arrangement. Half of the tax money collected from big-spending clubs gets redistributed to other teams, alongside other revenue-sharing payments.

The players seem unlikely to agree to a salary cap regardless. They would also likely point out that a cap system would probably still see marquee free agents paid well, whereas the middle tier and lower free agents would be more likely squeezed out.

If this does turn out to be a trend, it will be notable to watch it play out in the long run. Perhaps onerous deals like those for Kris Bryant or Anthony Rendon will become less common but players who stay productive could earn far more by continually commanding premium salaries.

The Phillies were less keen on the Dodgers/Mets path. Gelb reports they were not willing to offer Bichette a short-term, high-AAV deal because of their tax situation. Like the Dodgers and Mets, they are repeat tax payors in the top CBT bracket, which means a 110% tax on additional spending. They therefore preferred to make a longer offer, signing Bichette into his mid-30s at a lower annual rate.

It seems they’ve already pivoted and spent the money that Bichette didn’t take. They reportedly have a three-year, $45MM agreement in place to bring back J.T. Realmuto. The $15MM AAV on that deal is well south of what they offered Bichette, but the Bichette deal was likely going to lead to a trade of third baseman Alec Bohm, who is going to make $10.2MM this year. The Phils will be sticking with Realmuto and Bohm for roughly the same annual price as they would have paid to Bichette.

It would have been an interesting alternate path for the Phils. A seven-year commitment would have added another long-term deal for a club that already has a number of those. But on the other hand, Bichette would have been a welcome infusion of youth. Most of the core players on the Phillies are both in their mid-30s and signed long term. Tagging in the 28-year-old Bichette would have counteracted that but he has gone a different path, leaving the Phils to stick with Realmuto and a very similar club to last year’s.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
  • Interesting week, let's get rolling

LFGM

  • Head spinning! Lost Tucker, got Bichette all in the course of a day. I don’t think the Mets should trade Baty, if Bichette opts out after year 1 you have no 3B, so two questions, how do the Mets work out 1B, LF & DH if they keep Baty. Do you think Vientos, or Mauricio have the value combined with lesser prospects to get the SP the Mets need/want? Maybe Freddy Peralta?

Sam

  • Brett Baty on the move?

Lance

  • Mets have a roster full of middle infielders and at least 1 poor fielding outfielder, how do you see that shaking out?

Anthony Franco

  • A handful of the many Mets questions in here
  • I don't think Vientos (or certainly not Mauricio) has the juice to headline a Peralta deal, but it does feel to me that he's getting traded. Seems likelier than Baty, who offers more positional value as a capable defender at second/third (and presumably first)
  • Seems like the Mets balked at a Vientos/Robert framework at the deadline but I wonder if that's more workable now if Sox eat a chunk of the money or include a reliever other than Grant Taylor in there

Dave

  • How much of this "rush" from a few well-funded teams to spend large sums for short-term contracts is because of the expectation that the impending lockout will force a salary cap into place?

Philly A's

  • Are the shorter term but higher AVV contracts because of the possible strike?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't think that has much to do with it. Just seems like we had a couple huge spenders that didn't want to go long-term on very good but flawed hitters at the top of the class
  • Obviously if you're not keen on committing seven or eight years to either of these guys, you need to compensate by juicing the AAV. Mets had a ton of short-term spending room compared to last season and were running out of players on which they could use it after missing on Tucker

Stott Through The Heart And You're To Blame

  • Three years for Realmuto means that Dombrowski is planning on retiring after 2 and letting someone else clean up the mess?

Anthony Franco

  • Haha if that were the case, why balk at going to three years in November?
  • I'm a little surprised they caved but credit to JTR and his camp for waiting it out. Seemed like Bichette was the last other player for which they were prepared to spend and once he chose elsewhere, they said "screw it, let's get Realmuto done"

Justin

  • how do the Tucker and Bichette deals impact Cody Bellinger?

Anthony Franco

  • Mets could still accommodate Belli, I guess, but that feels less likely now. Beyond that, not sure it matters much. Dodgers never felt likely there and Yankees never seemed to be in on Tucker. My guess is they get the Yankees to cave on the sixth year and wrap it up

Shatkins

  • Did aaron judge just become the most underpaid player in the game (besides arb controlled assets)

Anthony Franco

  • It's Ohtani for me but Judge is second. That deal felt like a win for the Yanks at the time and obviously looks dramatically better with where salaries at the top of the market have gone since

Soooo

  • What’s next for Boston? I feel like they still need a bat, but I hate to see them lose Early or Tolle. Does some combination of Harrison and Crawford (plus others) get them Paredes?

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Mets Claim Tsung-Che Cheng

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The Mets claimed infielder Tsung-Che Cheng off waivers from the Rays, per announcements from both clubs. Tampa Bay designated Cheng for assignment last week. New York had open 40-man space and thus doesn’t need to make a corresponding roster move at this time.

Cheng, 24, made his big league debut with the Pirates in 2025 but went hitless in seven plate appearances. He didn’t fare all that well in Triple-A last year either, hitting just .207/.305/.267 with one homer, 12 doubles and three triples in 410 turns at the plate. However, Cheng is a plus runner who swiped 20 bags despite that paltry OBP, and he’s also a capable defender at shortstop, second base and third base. The 5’8″ lefty swinger also has an excellent eye at the plate, evidenced by a career 12.5% walk rate in the minors.

Pittsburgh designated Cheng for assignment last month. The Rays added him via waivers recently but designated him again upon acquiring lefty Ken Waldichuk. Cheng still has a minor league option year remaining, so he adds some fleet-footed depth that can play decent default at multiple positions while providing quality plate discipline. There’s no guarantee he sticks with the Mets all the way through spring training, but for now he can provide some cover in the event of injuries or the trade of a young infielder such as Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña or Ronny Mauricio.

Marlins Claim Osvaldo Bido

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The Marlins have claimed right-hander Osvaldo Bido off waivers from the Rays, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. Tampa Bay designated Bido for assignment last week. Miami has an open spot on the 40-man roster after trading lefty Ryan Weathers to the Yankees, so a corresponding move won’t be necessary.

Bido turned 30 this past October. He spent seven seasons in the minors with the Pirates prior to making his debut as a 27-year-old rookie in 2023, and he’s spent the past two seasons pitching with the A’s, who signed him to a big league deal in the 2023-24 winter after Pittsburgh cut him loose. The wiry 6’3″, 175-pound righty has had an up-and-down run in the majors across the past three seasons, posting ugly numbers in 2023 and 2025 but logging 63 1/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with solid rate stats in 2024.

Overall, Bido has pitched 193 2/3 innings as a big leaguer. In that time, he carries a collective 5.07 earned run average. Metrics like SIERA (4.60) and FIP (4.67) are a bit kinder, but he’s pitched like a serviceable swingman/sixth starter for much of his time in the league. Bido averages 94.7 mph with both his four-seamer and sinker. His strikeout rate (20.9%) and walk rate (9.6%) are both worse than league average, but not by much. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher but hadn’t been especially prone to home runs until the 2025 season — though that was surely due to the Athletics’ temporary home at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento playing like an absolute launching pad; Bido surrendered 13 home runs in 44 1/3 home innings but just six in 35 1/3 frames on the road.

Bido is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to either break camp with the Fish — presumably in a long relief role — or else clear waivers before he can be sent to Triple-A. Miami has been on the lookout for some rotation depth after trading not only Weathers but also righty Edward Cabrera. Bido provides some for the time being, but an out-of-options journeyman coming off a 5.87 ERA is far from a lock to stick on the roster.

At the moment, Miami’s rotation will include Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez and (health-permitting) Braxton Garrett. There’s no shortage of other arms to compete for starting jobs. Former top prospect Max Meyer will be healthy after a long injury layoff. Janson Junk, like Bido, came to the Marlins as a journeyman long reliever last year but pitched well enough to carve out a spot on the big league roster in ’26 — whether as a starter or swingman. Righty Ryan Gusto, acquired last July for Jesus Sanchez, offers a similar skill set. Former top prospects Dax Fulton and Adam Mazur have missed time with injury but should be healthy and in the mix for innings. Most notably, top prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling — two of MLB’s most highly regarded left-handers — are both on the cusp of the majors.

There’s plenty of talent in the mix for Miami’s rotation but also a lot of injury risk and uncertainty. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them bring in a veteran starter, even if only on a non-roster invitation to spring training, in order to add some stability to the current group.

Phillies To Re-Sign J.T. Realmuto

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The Phillies and J.T. Realmuto have an agreement in place to reunite on a new deal. It’s reportedly a $45MM guarantee over three years for the CAA Sports client, with incentives worth $5MM annually. The Phils have a full 40-man roster and will need a corresponding move to make this official.

At the beginning of the offseason, it seemed likely that Realmuto and the Phils would get back together. That has come to pass but there were some notable twists and turns along the way.

Back in early December, it was reported that the Phils had an offer out to Realmuto. No specifics of that offer were reported but it the two sides were apparently far enough apart to explore other options. Just over a week later, it was reported that the Phils were looking into other potential solutions behind the plate. An even more ambitious pivot came to light in January. With infielder Bo Bichette unsigned, the Phils seemed to genuinely pursue him. Various reports suggested that if the Phils signed Bichette, they would have to move on from Realmuto and third baseman Alec Bohm.

That appears to check out from a financial point of view. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phils thought they were going to sign Bichette for $200MM over seven years, an average annual value of $28.57MM. Realmuto was projected for something around $15MM annually, with MLBTR predicting him for a $30MM deal over two years at the beginning of the offseason. Bohm is going to make $10.2MM in his final season of club control.

Essentially, it seems the Phils were willing to spend another $15MM to $20MM on upgrading the lineup. Signing Bichette and then trading Bohm would have added about that much. But the Mets swooped in and have an agreement in place with Bichette, a three-year deal with huge average annual values and opt-outs after each season. That not only deprived the Phillies of Bichette but also landed him with a division rival. Barely an hour later, the Phils have quickly pivoted to the more straightforward path, bringing back their longtime stalwart behind the plate.

Though it is somewhat straightforward to bring back Realmuto, this is still a notable commitment. Realmuto turns 35 in March and will therefore play this deal through his age-37 season. There’s decline risk with any position player that age but particularly with catchers. Every backstop in the majors in 2025 was in his age-36 season or younger, except for Martín Maldonado, who is now retired. Realmuto was already one of the oldest full-time catchers in the league last year. Salvador Perez is one year older but even he has started to spend more time at first base or as the designated hitter in recent seasons.

Realmuto and Perez have been the two workhorses of the position over the past decade-plus. Dating back to the start of the 2015, Realmuto has appeared in 1362 games and Perez 1304. However, Realmuto actually appeared as a catcher in 1,252 of those contests whereas Perez only put on the gear for 980. That kind of workload can be an argument for or against Realmuto. His ability to shoulder a massive workload relative to his peers is right there in the numbers but that could also be the very thing that works against him as he ages.

The signs of decline are already somewhat apparent. At the plate, Realmuto has clearly fallen from his peak. From 2018 to 2022, when he was in his late 20s and early 30s, he produced a combined .272/.339/.476 batting line. That resulted in a 118 wRC+, indicating he was 18% better than the league average hitter for that span. Over the past three years, he has slashed .257/.315/.421 for a wRC+ of 100. In 2025, he hit .257/.315/.384 for a wRC+ of 94. That’s still pretty good for a catcher, as backstops generally hit about 10% worse than the league-wide average, but the trend lines aren’t great.

There are yellow flags on the defensive side as well. Outlets like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast ranked him as an above-average pitch framer from 2018 to 2022 but with negative grades over the past three years. His grades for controlling the running game and blocking pitches haven’t declined as consistently across all out those outlets but there has been a bit of downward creep. Statcast, for instance, had him as a subpar blocker in the past two years.

Taking the Perez route and coming out from behind the plate isn’t a likely in Philadelphia. As mentioned, Realmuto’s offense has been declining, which wouldn’t be ideal for him if he were at first base or in the designated hitter slot. The Phils don’t have those opportunities available for him regardless, with Bryce Harper locked in at first base and Kyle Schwarber essentially a full-time DH. Harper is signed through 2031 and Schwarber 2030.

All those concerns are presumably things the Phillies are aware of, thus explaining why they toyed with the idea of a future without Realmuto. But despite all the concerns, Realmuto was still the best free agent catcher available this winter and the Phils clearly needed to do something. Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs are on the roster but neither would have been an ideal everyday option behind the plate. Stubbs has 203 big league games under his belt with subpar offense and defense. Marchan’s big league numbers are a bit more encouraging but he has just 82 games under his belt.

In the end, the Phils are sticking with the devil they know. Though there are real concerns in the numbers, there are also the unquantifiable things to consider with a catcher. The Phils have seen Realmuto work with their pitchers for seven years now and presumably are happy to have him continue doing that for another three years.

It appears the 2026 Phillies are going to look a lot like the previous versions of the team, with a few modifications. Adolis García will take over in right field, with Nick Castellanos likely to be jettisoned at some point. Ranger Suárez is gone, having an agreement in place with the Red Sox, but the Phils will hope Andrew Painter can step up to replace him on the pitching chart. Justin Crawford will hopefully take over center field. Their two big free agents this winter, Schwarber and Realmuto, have been re-signed.

That leaves the Phils with the same core, which can be argued to be good or bad going forward. It has certainly been a good core in the past. They’ve won at least 87 games in four straight seasons. They made the World Series in 2022 and won the National League East in the past two campaigns. But Schwarber will turn 33 this year, as will Trea Turner and Aaron Nola. Harper’s already that age. Zack Wheeler turns 36 this year. As mentioned, Realmuto will be 35 in a few months. Everyone in that group is signed for at least two more seasons but often far more.

Spending so much money on that veteran core has pushed the payroll up. RosterResource estimates the Phils to have a $281MM payroll and $317MM competitive balance tax figure. The annual breakdown of Realmuto’s deal hasn’t yet been reported but the CBT won’t be impacted by that, since that number is calculated based on AAV. The Phillies are in the highest possible realm of taxation, both because they have paid the tax in at least three straight years and because their CBT number is above the top threshold of $304MM.

They were just under that top line coming into today, facing a 95% tax rate. The Realmuto deal has blown them past it, well into the area where they pay a 110% tax on new spending. This will therefore add roughly $15MM to their tax bill this year on top of the money going to Realmuto himself.

Realmuto had a fairly quiet market but was connected to the Red Sox at one point. With Realmuto and Danny Jansen signed, the top remaining catcher free agents include Victor Caratini, Jonah Heim and others.

Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the two sides were close. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Robert Murray of FanSided reported the agreement was in place and provided specifics of the contract. Photos courtesy of Kyle Ross, Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Mets To Sign Bo Bichette

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The Mets wasted little time in changing gears after missing out on the offseason’s top free agent. They’ve reportedly agreed to a massive three-year, $126MM contract with free agent infielder Bo Bichette. The Vayner Sports client can opt out of the contract after this season and after the 2027 campaign, and if he chooses to do so he’ll pick up an additional $5MM bonus. The contract, which does not contain any deferred money and affords Bichette a full no-trade clause, is pending the completion of a physical.

It’s a stunning and near-immediate pivot for a Mets club that is barely 12 hours removed from losing out on Kyle Tucker, who just last night went to the Dodgers. Los Angeles outbid the Mets’ reported four-year, $220MM deal with a four-year, $240MM contract that gives Tucker two opt-out opportunities (post-2027 and post-2028). Having missed on that big swing, the Mets now pivot to the market’s next-best bat and next-best all-around free agent, bringing Bichette in on a $42MM annual value that ties Zack Wheeler for the sixth-largest in MLB history.

In landing Bichette, the Mets are not only pivoting from Tucker in arguably the most notable way possible — they’re also keeping him from a division rival that had emerged as the ostensible frontrunner. Bichette met with the Phillies earlier this week, and made him a seven-year offer worth around $200MM. They believed they were close to a deal last night, but the Tucker decision prompted a pivot from the Mets, who swooped in and stole him from their rivals. Bichette now lands a mammoth annual value that could grow even further (via that $5MM bonus) if he opts out and returns to the market next winter, ahead of what would still be only his age-29 season.

Though the fit isn’t necessarily as clean as Tucker would have been for a Mets club that already had a deep infield and was lacking in outfielders, Bichette adds a clear plus bat to manager Carlos Mendoza’s lineup. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a well above-average hitter in all but one of his seven major league campaigns — a 2024 season that was cut short by multiple calf injuries and a broken finger standing as the lone exception.

Bichette hit just .225/.277/.322 in 80 games during that awful 2024 campaign. He not only bounced back in 2025 but turned in arguably the best performance of his career on a rate basis, slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs in 628 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ (134), it was Bichette’s best season since his late call-up during the 2019 campaign (MLB’s juiced-ball season).

Even on its surface, Bichette’s 2025 season looks excellent. It doesn’t tell the tale of his finish, though, which had both positives and one very obvious negative. Bichette actually had a tepid start to his 2025 campaign. The underlying batted-ball data through his first month-plus was strong, but he hit just .275/.316/.363 through the first week of May. From that point forth, Bichette caught fire. Over his next 457 plate appearances, he laid waste to opposing pitchers at a .325/.372/.528 clip. That was 50% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and even that doesn’t fully do justice to Bichette’s jaw-dropping summer; over his final 238 plate appearances, the second-generation All-Star went supernova with a .381/.437/.591 slash (187 wRC+).

Unfortunately for both Bichette and the Blue Jays, that previously mentioned “very obvious negative” struck in early September when he suffered a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his knee and missed the remainder of the regular season. He was also inactive for the early rounds of postseason play, only returning in the World Series. Bichette was clearly hobbled during the Fall Classic, limping to first base with ’88 Gibson-esque speed when putting the ball in play and displaying a lack of range at a new position: second base. Bichette’s shortstop glovework has been panned for years, and the Jays took the downtime as an opportunity to shift the defensively superior Andres Gimenez over to shortstop in his absence.

Despite the clearly injured knee, Bichette’s bat didn’t miss a beat in the World Series. He went 8-for-23 with seven singles and a titanic three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series. Had the Jays’ bullpen managed to hold the lead, that would-be game-winner would have trailed only Joe Carter’s walk-off blast in franchise lore. Of course, that’s not how the game turned out, but Bichette’s 442-foot bomb still served to further underscore that even at less than 100%, he was a clear impact bat.

Bichette now carries a lifetime .294/.337/.469 batting line with him to Queens. He’s been 20-35% better than an average hitter every season of his career with the exception of that 2024 outlier, and this past season’s 14.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He couples those plus-plus contact skills with above-average power and high-end batted-ball data; Bichette averaged 91 mph off the bat this past season (72nd percentile), and his 48.8% hard-hit rate sat in the 83rd percentile of big league hitters.

The question for Bichette and the Mets is how well he can handle a move to third base. His shortstop deficiencies were largely due to sub-par range. He doesn’t have a plus throwing arm necessarily, but it’s closer to average — at least in terms of the average velocity on his throws, as measured by Statcast — than was the case with his bottom-of-the-scale lateral movement. Bichette averaged 82.3 mph on his throws across the diamond last year — below par in MLB but still an upgrade (at least in terms of pure arm strength) over the man he’ll be replacing at the hot corner, Brett Baty (81.2 mph). Bichette may not be a plus defender at third, but even average defense coupled with his bat and good health would result in All-Star output.

Baty could now bounce between multiple positions. He’s played second base and left field in the past, and the Mets would surely be open to experimenting with him at first base, too. The designated hitter slot provides more opportunities for all. It’s a similar range of possibilities to the one faced by Jorge Polanco, who inked a two-year, $40MM deal last month. Polanco will reportedly be used extensively at first base and designated hitter despite having virtually no prior first base experience.

For a team that has preached run prevention for much of the offseason, lining up with Bichette at third base and Polanco/Baty at first probably isn’t how they drew things up originally — but the offseason is a layered beast that rarely unfolds in alignment with even the best-laid plans. Even if the Mets’ infield defense (and outfield defense, for that matter) is lacking, it’ll be solid up the middle thanks to Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien. It should also be a highly productive offensive unit — particularly if Semien’s bat can bounce back at all.

Of course, the addition of Bichette also makes a potential trade of Baty — and several other infielders — more likely. Clubs seeking third base help include the Mariners, Angels and Pirates (as explored at length yesterday), among others. Any could show interest in Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña and/or Ronny Mauricio. Acuña, Vientos and Mauricio have all reportedly been available throughout the offseason anyhow. Some form of move seems likely, especially when considering both Acuña and Vientos are out of minor league options and looking to bounce back from poor seasons.

From a payroll vantage point, the Bichette contract is all the more staggering. Not only is the $42MM annual value the sixth-largest ever, it’s also only a fraction of what the Mets will actually have to pay due to this signing. New York was already on the cusp of the top tier of luxury penalization. Bichette catapults them $33MM north of that final cutoff point, per RosterResource’s estimates. They’ll pay a 95% tax on the first roughly $9MM of his annual value and a full-freight 110% tax on the remaining $33MM. Assuming an even distribution of his $126MM over the three-year term, the Mets would be paying more than $86MM for Bichette in 2026 alone. If he triggers that $5MM bonus upon opting out next winter, that’d also be subject to a 110% tax, bringing the Mets’ total bill on Bichette to about $97MM for just one year.

Moreover, the signing underscores the minimal amount that many big-market, CBT-paying clubs care about paying the 110% tax on short-term deals marquee players. The Dodgers’ signing of Tucker — just as will be the case with Bichette’s deal — has rekindled public outcry for a salary cap, but the players will likely only use these deals to illustrate the discrepancy between the middle and upper class of free agents; the union will surely argue that a cap would only further expand that gap and point out that half the money paid by CBT offenders is redistributed to other teams (in addition to standard revenue-sharing). That won’t fly with small-market owners, who’ll argue that they can’t compete with this type of expenditure. Both sides will dig in their heels.

It’s also fair to wonder whether this is a short-term blip or a burgeoning trend. Even big-market clubs seem increasingly against long-term contracts. For years, it was the Dodgers who tended to prefer short-term, high-AAV deals. But we’ve now seen the Mets limit their Tucker offer to four years and go three super-premium years on Bichette — while also declining to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox clearly prefer the trade market to free agency and surprised onlookers by even extending to five years to sign Ranger Suárez. The Yankees have reportedly been stuck on five years for their offer to Cody Bellinger while he seeks a seven-year term. Giants ownership publicly voiced an aversion to signing any pitchers to long-term contracts.

If baseball is indeed moving more toward NBA-style contracts — short term, ultra-high annual value — it’d mark a dramatic shift for a sport whose top players have overwhelmingly (albeit not always) preferred the stability of long-term arrangements, even if that means sacrificing some money on an annual basis. Time will tell, but that will all factor into both parties’ approach at the negotiating table next winter in an offseason that is widely expected to be impacted by a lockout and transaction freeze.

Turning back to the teams directly impacted by today’s signing, the Mets will part with their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft as well as $1MM of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agents. That’s due to the fact that Bichette declined a $22.025MM qualifying offer. By that same token, the Blue Jays will be compensated with an extra pick. That selection will come after the fourth round of this summer’s draft — the lowest possible compensation — due to Toronto’s status as a luxury tax payor.

For the Jays, parting with Bichette has at least seemed possible throughout the winter but began to look more certain once they signed star NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and plugged him into an already crowded infield. There was still some room for Bichette to return, but Toronto’s focus has reportedly been on Tucker. With Bichette now formally out of the picture, they’re lined up to go with Ernie Clement at second base, Gimenez at shortstop and Okamoto/Addison Barger at third base.

As for the Phillies, they’ve made their own immediate pivot, upping their offer to give longtime catcher J.T. Realmuto the third year he’s sought. Less than two hours after the Bichette agreement broke, Realmuto and the Phillies had a new deal in place. Philadelphia had reportedly only been comfortable signing one of Bichette or Realmuto, with the recent preference seeming to be the former. A Bichette signing would likely have led to Realmuto going elsewhere and one of Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott being traded. Trading either feels less likely — but certainly not impossible — now that Bichette is in Queens and Realmuto is staying put.

Even Bichette himself will now have major questions to consider in the near-term future. With a big season, he’ll assuredly opt out of his contract, cashing in $47MM (or thereabouts, depending on the division of salary) for one year and re-entering the market as a 28-year-old who can’t receive a qualifying offer. If he can do that and prove himself capable of playing an average or better third base, he could come out hundreds of millions ahead. That’s far from a given, though, and he’ll need to make that decision against the backdrop of a looming work stoppage.

It’s a dizzying sequence of interwoven, high-priced payouts for star players — the ramifications of which will reach further than we can accurately predict at this time. It seems clear that the Mets have at least one move coming with regard to their infield glut, and they’re still in search of help both in the rotation and in the outfield. With Tucker and Bichette coming off the board within a matter of 15 hours, Cody Bellinger suddenly stands as the top position player available — possibly with several clubs now keying in on him and providing more pressure for the incumbent Yankees to bridge the gap between their five-year offer and his seven-year ask. Will Bellinger similarly pivot to a short-term, high-AAV contract? If so, will that be in the Bronx or with a new club?

Questions abound, and there are surely several moves yet to be made, but the Mets are a more talented and more dangerous team now than they were this time yesterday — even if it’s not due to the player they were originally targeting. Their pivot is likely only just beginning, but adding a prime-aged, multi-time All-Star who has twice led the American League in hits is a pretty good first step in a pivot.

Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported the agreement and contract length. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman added the total guarantee and no-trade clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added details regarding the opt-outs and lack of deferrals. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported that Bichette was likely to play third base in Queens.

White Sox Interested In Michael Conforto

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The White Sox have some interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Conforto was with the Dodgers in 2025 but never seemed likely to return there even before Los Angeles made their stunning agreement with Kyle Tucker last night.

Conforto, 33 in March, is coming off a few down years. His best stretch of play was with the Mets earlier in his career. Through the end of the 2020 season, he had 623 games under his belt, with a .259/.358/.484 line and 128 wRC+. He was good for 30ish home runs from 2017 to 2019 and then hit nine over the fence in the shortened 2020 season.

He hasn’t really been at that level since. His production scuffled in 2021, with just 14 home runs and total offense closer to league average. Shoulder surgery wiped out his 2022 season entirely. He then signed a two-year deal with the Giants. In 2023, he was again around league average overall, with 15 home runs for the year.

The second year of that pact was a bit more encouraging. Conforto hit 20 home runs and slashed .237/.309/.450. That line was 12% better than league average by measure of wRC+. That wasn’t up to his prime years with the Mets but was his best showing in a while.

It was also possible to squint and see the potential for more. His first half was interrupted by a hamstring strain and he never seemed to get into a groove. He stayed healthy in the second half and caught fire, with a .272/.337/.543 line and 143 wRC+ in his final 169 plate appearances.

The Dodgers decided to make a bet on that hot finish, signing Conforto to a one-year pact worth $17MM but with deferrals. That didn’t work out. Conforto slashed .199/.305/.333 on the year for an 83 wRC+. The Dodgers did not carry him on the roster into the postseason.

After that down season, his earning power should be lower than it was a year ago. He would therefore make sense for the White Sox as a buy-low option who theoretically has some upside. He has only sporadically shown that upside lately but even his down 2025 season had some theoretical reasons for optimism.

His 11.5% walk rate last year was quite strong. His 24.9% strikeout rate a tad high but pretty normal for him. His .247 batting average on balls in play was quite low, so he may have had poor luck on the year. His Statcast data wasn’t elite but wasn’t poor either. His bat speed was in the 77th percentile of big leaguers. His barrel rate was 56th, his hard hit rate 53rd and his average exit velocity 48th.

The Sox are deep in a rebuild and won’t be contending soon. They would be one of the clubs best suited to take a flier on Conforto and hope for a return to form, as a contending club would presumably prefer a player with a more impressive recent track record. If he has a strong first half, he could then be flipped at the trade deadline for a prospect or two.

Chicago’s outfield currently projects to include Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Benintendi in two spots. Those two are themselves candidates to be traded this year. They could each also stand to spend some time in the designated hitter slot, given their injury histories.

Brooks Baldwin, Tristan Peters, Derek Hill, Everson Pereira and some other young players should be in the mix for outfield playing time. Baldwin and Peters still have options and could be sent to the minors. Hill and Pereira are out of options but are the kind of fringe roster players who could clear waivers and be outrighted to the minors as non-roster depth.

With Tucker now signed, the outfield free agent market has Cody Bellinger up top and then a notable gap to the other options. Harrison Bader would arguably be the second-best option, with guys like Conforto, Mike Tauchman, Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar and others forming the next tier. Max Kepler would have been in this cluster somewhere but he recently received an 80-game PED suspension. That cuts into his appeal both because he’ll miss the first half of the season and then wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

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