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Red Sox Sign Vinny Capra To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have signed infielder Vinny Capra to a minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker on Capra’s MLB.com profile page.

Capra, 29, has played in the majors in parts of four seasons since making his big league debut back in 2022. A 20th-round pick by the Blue Jays in the 2018 draft, Capra climbed the minor league ladder until he made an eight-game cameo in Toronto throughout the 2022 campaign. He was non-tendered shortly thereafter, and while he re-signed with Toronto on a minor league deal he was traded to Pittsburgh in exchange for catcher Tyler Heineman in April of the 2023 campaign. Capra has been riding the waiver wire ever since, with brief stints in the majors and longer track records at Triple-A for each of the Pirates, Brewers, and White Sox organizations.

He spent the 2025 campaign with Milwaukee, Chicago, and the White Sox Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte. This season was by far Capra’s largest opportunity in the majors, as he appeared in 47 MLB games with 105 trips to the plate between the Brewers and White Sox after topping out at nine games and 21 trips to the plate across his three previous years as a big leaguer. Unfortunately, Capra didn’t do much with the opportunity as he hit just .125/.157/.177 in that time, with a 23.8% strikeout rate against a microscopic 2.9% walk rate and just three extra-base hits.

It wasn’t exactly a strong impression, but Capra’s ability to capably handle second and third base as well as shortstop and even occasional work in the outfield still makes him a solid depth piece for virtually any team on a minor league deal like this one. While he’s yet to break through in the majors, his numbers at Triple-A are quite respectable, including a .286/.384/.440 slash line with Charlotte this year. That lifted his career line at Triple-A to .272/.368/.389 across 257 games.

For the Red Sox, Capra is unlikely to be much of a consideration for a big league bench job headed into Spring Training. The team seems likely to add at least one infielder, whether that be a reunion with Alex Bregman or the addition of a new bat like Kazuma Okamoto. That new addition will likely join Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer as regulars on the infield, with players like Kristian Campbell, David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, Nate Eaton, Vaughn Grissom, Nick Sogard and Tristan Gray all also in the mix for time on the infield among players on the club’s 40-man roster. If injuries or a 40-man roster crunch thin out that group, perhaps then Capra could enter Spring Training in competition for a bench spot alongside players like Gray, Sogard, Grissom, and Eaton.

Mariners To Re-Sign Casey Lawrence To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners and right-hander Casey Lawrence have reunited on a minor league deal, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. Presumably, the veteran righty will also receive an invite to big league camp in spring training.

Lawrence, 38, has been in the game for well over a decade now but has never been much more than a depth arm. He has appeared in five different big league seasons but has appeared in just 65 games with a 6.42 earned run average.

He and the Mariners have a relationship that seems to work for both parties. He bounced on and off the Seattle roster throughout the 2025 season, getting added whenever the club needed a fresh arm to absorb some innings and spare the rest of the staff. Since he is out of options, he would then be designated for assignment. One time, he was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays and was with that club briefly. But for the most part, he would clear waivers, elect free agency and then sign a new minor league deal with the M’s.

By the end of the year, he had been designated for assignment six times, once by the Jays and five times by the Mariners. Around all those transactions, he tossed 17 2/3 innings over six appearances with a 4.08 ERA.

It would be understandable to feel that Lawrence was getting jerked around but it seems he understood the situation, given his career trajectory. “I think I’m used to kind of the movement of it,” Lawrence said to Tim Booth of The Seattle Times in April. “And I think it’s one of those things where you understand your role in the team and you’re willing to do whatever is going to help the team. Right now, it’s kind of doing this.”

Lawrence never got enough big league time to qualify for arbitration, so his career earnings are surely less than many of his peers. By accepting this role late in his career, he can at least bank some sporadic hits of major league salary before he hangs up his spikes. He told Booth that he plans to get into a player development or front office role but he wants to keep playing while he still can.

The Mariners have a strong rotation consisting of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller. They have Logan Evans and others as depth options. Prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje could be in Triple-A at some point in 2026. Lawrence will likely be used for emergency mop up work for situations where the staff is gassed due to injuries or playing a series of extra innings games in short succession.

Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images

Red Sox Interested In Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto

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The Red Sox are looking to bolster the lineup. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Sox are considering signing one or maybe two of Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, J.T. Realmuto and Alex Bregman. MLBTR covered the club’s interest in Schwarber and Realmuto earlier this month. Bregman was with the Sox in 2025 and team employees often complimented him for his skills and leadership abilities, so it’s unsurprising that they would want him back.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow admitted earlier this month that the Sox would be looking for front-of-the-rotation starter and a middle-of-the-order bat this winter. While some Boston fans weren’t thrilled with the move, the Sox feel they ticked off the first box by acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cardinals this week. After the Gray trade, it was reported that the Sox would be shifting their focus to the lineup.

There are certain spots on the field where it’s easier for the Sox to add. They appear to be set in the outfield, so much so that a trade to clear out some space feels inevitable. Masataka Yoshida is perhaps slated to be something like an everyday designated hitter at the moment, though it’s possible a trade of him or another outfielder will open that spot a bit more. On the infield, Trevor Story is going to be back at shortstop.

The infield corners are more open. With Bregman opting out of his deal, third base is free. The Sox could fill that spot internally with Marcelo Mayer but he could also take over at second base. Triston Casas is a possibility at first but the Sox likely don’t want to rely on him after a 2025 wherein he struggled before suffering a season-ending knee injury.

Alonso is one of the better power bats in the league. He has been good for about 40 homers per full season, give or take a few, throughout his career. He just hit 38 bombs this year. His 8.6% walk rate was a career low but his .272 batting average a career high. Put it all together and he slashed .272/.347/.524 for a 141 wRC+, the eighth-best wRC+ tally among qualified hitters in the majors this year.

Despite his skills with the bat, his market is unclear. He’s not a great defender and he’s not a burner on the basepaths. He was a free agent a year ago, coming off a lesser platform season, and didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for. He returned to the Mets on a two-year, $54MM deal with an opt-out halfway through.

After putting together a better season at the plate, he opted out to take another crack at finding that elusive long-term deal. He is reportedly hoping to get a seven-year commitment this winter. That’s an ambitious ask for a guy who is about to turn 31 and isn’t known for his athleticism, though he is apparently willing to spend more time as a DH going forward. MLBTR predicted him for a four-year, $110MM deal.

Alonso would undoubtedly add some thump to the Boston lineup. The fact that he hits right-handed should also be attractive, since the current group skews to the left side. The question will be if they can line up on a price. There’s still belief in some circles that the Mets and Alonso could reunite again, though he presumably has interest from plenty of other clubs as well, in addition to the Red Sox.

RosterResource estimates the Sox currently have a competitive balance tax number of $223MM, a little more than $20MM below next year’s $244MM base threshold. They have been willing to occasionally pax the tax in recent years. It appears they went a bit over the line in 2025. Perhaps reaching the postseason and developing a young core will convince ownership to push spending a bit higher in 2026.

Okamoto would be more of a wild card since he doesn’t yet have major league experience, but he’s also plenty interesting. From 2018 to 2024, he hit at least 27 home runs in each season for the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In 2025, he was limited by injuries to just 69 games but had his best performance on a rate basis. He hit 15 homers in that time and slashed .327/.416/.598 for a 210 wRC+.

Defensively, he has primarily been a third baseman in Japan but has also spent a decent amount of time at first with brief stints in left field. Some scouts believe he can handle third base in the big leagues for a while but others feel he would be better off at first. He’s currently 29 years old and will turn 30 at the end of June. Like Alonso, he swings from the right side and would be a good fit for the lefty-heavy lineup.

There’s always a risk that a wild card player like this won’t be able to adjust to the major leagues as hoped. This is something that Boston fans know well, having watched Yoshida struggle lately. But Okamoto has plenty of appeal. MLBTR predicted he could land a four-year, $64MM deal, which doesn’t include the posting fee which would be owed to the Giants. He has already been connected to the Pirates but should have lots of other suitors as well.

If the Sox end up adding a player who projects to spend a lot of time at first, it would presumably increase the chances of Casas ending up on the trade block. He has already been in plenty of trade rumors over the years. As mentioned, the DH spot is already a bit crowded, so it would be hard for Casas and someone like Alonso to co-exist on the same roster.

Casas still has options and could technically be sent to the minors but he’s overqualified to be a depth piece. From 2022 to 2024, he hit 42 home runs in 840 plate appearances. His 26.9% strikeout rate was a bit high but he drew walks at an excellent 14.2% pace. Overall, he hit .250/.357/.473 for a 127 wRC+. His 2025 saw him put up a dismal .182/.277/.303 line but that was in a tiny sample of 112 plate appearances and with a .217 batting average on balls in play. His walk rate had dropped to 9.8% but he also improved his strikeout rate to 24.1%.

It would be understandable if the Sox don’t want to bank on Casas after those struggles and the surgery to address the ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee. But if they replace him with a more reliable option like Alonso, then it would make sense to flip Casas for pitching or some other upgrade. He is still controllable for three seasons and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $1.7MM salary next year. MLBTR listed Casas 24th on our list of the Top 40 Trade Candidates at the start of the season.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Giants To Sign Sam Hentges

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The Giants and left-hander Sam Hentges have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.4MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Giants have an open 40-man spot and won’t need to make a corresponding move when the deal becomes official. The southpaw is represented by Warner Sports Management.

It’s a buy-low wild card move for the Giants. Hentges was a solid bullpen piece for the Guardians a few years ago but he hasn’t been healthy for a while. Over the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, Hentges tossed 114 1/3 innings for Cleveland, allowing 2.91 earned runs per nine. His 7.9% walk rate was just barely better than average while his 27.4% strikeout rate and 60.1% ground ball rate were both very strong. He gradually moved up to high leverage work, earning 23 holds over that span.

In 2024, he kept things going for a while, posting a 3.04 ERA over another 23 2/3 innings. However, he hit the injured list in July due to some inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He required surgery in September, a procedure which came with a recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months.

Though he was likely to going miss most or all of 2025, the Guards still kept him around. He was still under club control through 2027, so there was still a potential long-term payoff. He had qualified for arbitration ahead of 2024 as a Super Two player and made $1.1625MM in his first of four arb seasons. The Guards gave him a slight bump to $1.337MM in 2025. Even if he couldn’t manage a late-season return to health, he would still have two further seasons of control.

In 2025, not only did he not make it back to the majors, but he didn’t even begin a rehab assignment. In September, he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. That procedure comes with a recovery timeline of three to four months. That means he should be healthy by the spring but the Guards decided to move on. They non-tendered Hentges last week, sending him to free agency.

The Giants have swooped in and will sign Hentges, giving him a slight raise over last year, even though he missed the whole season. San Francisco non-tendered Joey Lucchesi last week but currently has Erik Miller, Matt Gage and Reiver Sanmartin as lefties in their bullpen. Hentges is obviously a big unknown, having missed a season and a half at this point. But if he can get back to health, he could be the best southpaw in the bunch.

If he does get back on track, he would be a bargain at a salary barely above the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. He is out of options but could be retained via arbitration for the 2027 season if things go especially well next year.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

Orioles Showing Interest In Kyle Schwarber, Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez

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Earlier this month, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said his team is open to signing free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer, and would therefore cost the O’s their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft in addition to whatever the free agent would command in salary.  Of the nine players who rejected the QO, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Baltimore has shown some interest in Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, and Dylan Cease (before Cease signed with the Blue Jays yesterday).  In addition to qualified free agents, the Orioles have “checked in on” Tatsuya Imai, as part of the team’s explorations of the upper tiers of the pitching market.

Heyman also linked Baltimore to Pete Alonso a couple of weeks ago, but now notes that the chances of a signing may have dimmed since the Orioles retained Ryan Mountcastle past the non-tender deadline.  This doesn’t mean that Mountcastle couldn’t still be traded or cut loose entirely if a premium bat became a realistic option for Baltimore, though Elias said earlier this week that the team thinks Mountcastle can rebound after a hamstring strain hampered his production in 2025.

Signing Alonso or Schwarber would further deepen what is already perhaps an overcrowded mix of position players in Baltimore.  Schwarber can play a corner outfield spot on an occasional basis but is largely a DH-only player at this stage of his career, further reducing the Orioles’ flexibility in trying to find at-bats for the rest of its current players.  A trade or two might ease up this logjam, of course, and the Orioles could then acquire pitching via the trade market rather than free agency.

Even if a Schwarber or an Alonso creates some questions about lineup construction, the Orioles would happily accept that as a proverbial “good problem to have” if it means adding an elite power bat.  Schwarber and Alonso are also both known to be clubhouse leaders, and adding a veteran mentor to a young O’s team might carry benefits beyond just what either player can provide at the plate.

There is a widespread belief that the Phillies will pay top dollar to re-sign Schwarber, but naturally that hasn’t stopped other teams from looking into his market.  The Orioles join the Red Sox and Pirates as teams known to have shown interest in Schwarber’s services, and clubs like the Reds and Yankees have been more speculatively linked.  Alonso’s market hasn’t been as robust in terms of public interest, though the Mets remain in the mix for another reunion with their longtime slugger.

The Orioles have already added one prominent bat this offseason by acquiring Taylor Ward from the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez, in a move that surprised some pundits since it further reduced the Orioles’ list of rotation options.  This could indicate that if the O’s do break the bank on a big-ticket signing, it will be for a starting pitcher to help stabilize the rotation.  Cease’s rather quick departure from the market (and to an AL East rival) only puts more pressure on the Orioles to find another frontline arm.

Valdez or Imai would certainly fit the bill, albeit in two different fashions.  Valdez is a proven commodity at the MLB level, and is particularly a known quantity to Elias since Valdez joined the Astros organization as an international signing and then broke into the majors when Elias was still working in Houston’s front office.  Imai is over four and a half years younger than Valdez and perhaps has more pure upside based on his results in Japan, but it remains to be seen if Imai can translate that success over to the majors.  The O’s also don’t have a long track record in signing Japanese talent, though the club did add Tomoyuki Sugano last winter.

Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract remains the only multi-year free agent deal the Orioles have signed during Elias’ seven years running the front office, though in fairness, much of Elias’ tenure was spent either rebuilding or working under some ownership turmoil.  David Rubenstein’s purchase of the franchise in early 2024 didn’t immediately lead to a huge payroll boost, though the club did ink star prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67MM extension this past summer.  Basallo and O’Neill represent the only contracts on Baltimore’s books beyond 2026, and while the Orioles certainly have interest in locking up other young stars to extensions, there is plenty of future financial room for the O’s to make a splashy signing (or two) this winter.

Tigers Re-Sign Tanner Rainey To Minor League Contract

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The Tigers have re-signed right-hander Tanner Rainey to a minor league contract, according to Rainey’s MLB.com profile page.  Rainey returns to Motown a week after he was designated for assignment, and then cut loose at the non-tender deadline.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that Rainey would earn $1.6MM in arbitration, so the non-tender allowed the Tigers to save some money and still bring the righty back on a non-guaranteed deal.  The terms of Rainey’s minor league pact aren’t known, but if he is selected to Detroit’s active roster, his guaranteed salary will probably clock in south of that $1.6MM estimate.

The 2025 season was a rough one for Rainey, who posted an 11.17 ERA over 9 2/3 innings and 13 appearances for the Pirates and Tigers.  Signed to a minor league deal by Pittsburgh last winter, his stint with the Bucs ended up being two stints, as he re-signed with the team again in June after he elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment.  The Pirates released Rainey entirely in July, and he caught on with the Tigers shortly thereafter and spent much of his time at Triple-A Toledo, save for two games in the bigs.

Rainey (who turns 33 on Christmas Day) is a veteran of eight MLB seasons, and was a solid member of the Nationals’ bullpen earlier in his career.  Control problems plagued Rainey even in his better years, and his production has gone totally south since he missed almost all of the 2023 season recovering from a Tommy John surgery.  His 2024 season saw him post a 4.76 ERA, an uncharacteristically low 19% strikeout rate, and an ungainly 12.6% walk rate across 51 relief innings for Washington, and he showed even less during his brief time in the Show in 2025.

The right-hander’s Triple-A numbers provide some hope for optimism, as Rainey had a 2.88 ERA and 32% strikeout rate over 40 2/3 innings for the Tigers’ and Pirates’ top affiliates in 2025.  Those numbers did come alongside an outsized 13.6% walk rate, but Detroit clearly saw enough in Rainey’s performance to warrant a new contract.  There’s no risk for the Tigers in bringing Rainey to camp and letting him compete for a bullpen job, and he could end up being a hidden gem if he can recapture any of his pre-surgery form.

Cardinals Notes: Donovan, Gorman, Nootbaar, Burleson, Pirates, Pitching

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Brendan Donovan has been drawing as much trade interest as any player in baseball, owing both to Donovan’s value as a left-handed hitter with defensive versatility and to the Cardinals’ rebuilding status.  The Astros, Pirates, Royals, and Guardians have been publicly linked to Donovan’s trade market, and with these and more clubs in pursuit of the All-Star, the timing seems right for the Cards to cash in while Donovan’s value is at its peak.

That said, St. Louis isn’t required to move Donovan this offseason, since he still has two seasons remaining of arbitration eligibility.  As The Athletic’s Katie Woo frames the situation, if the Cards can’t find the big return they want for Donovan, the team “will pivot to moving at least one of” Lars Nootbaar or Nolan Gorman.  In another piece from Woo, Will Sammon, and Ken Rosenthal, Alec Burleson is another player the Cardinals won’t move “unless…blown away by an offer.”

All four of these hitters mentioned are lefty-swingers, so trading any of them would help balance out the St. Louis lineup and perhaps clear some room for another left-handed hitter in shortstop prospect JJ Wetherholt.  Since Masyn Winn is an elite defensive shortstop, the Cardinals’ plan for Wetherholt seems to be to break him into the big leagues as a second or third baseman, so moving Donovan or Gorman in particular would clear a path in that regard.  Trading Nolan Arenado would obviously also open up third base, though Arenado’s contract and no-trade protection makes moving him a trickier proposition than any of these other players, even though Arenado has expressed more of an openness to be dealt than he did last winter.

On the surface, the Cardinals’ stance is obvious.  Donovan and Burleson were both much more productive than Gorman or Nootbaar in 2025, so naturally the latter two players seem to have less of a role in the Cards’ future plans.  Formerly a top prospect in his own right, Gorman seemed to be figuring things out with a 27-homer season in 2023, but he has hit just .204/.284/.385 with 33 homers in 804 plate appearances over the last two seasons, with a whopping 287 strikeouts underlying Gorman’s contact problems.  Nootbaar had been a more consistent performer before his numbers fell off during an injury-plagued 2025 campaign.  The biggest obstacle to a Nootbaar trade seems to be his health, as he may not be ready for Opening Day following surgery to correct Haglund’s deformities on both his heels.

Moving Gorman or Nootbaar would obviously bring back less of a trade return than Donovan or Burleson.  The Rangers were one team known to have interest in Nootbaar before word of his surgery became public, and the club’s subsequent trade for Brandon Nimmo would seemingly indicate that Texas has moved on from Nootbaar.  The Pirates have shown interest in all of Nootbaar, Gorman, and Donovan, and Woo reports that Pittsburgh has also asked the team about Burleson.

Donovan and Nootbaar are controlled through the 2027 season, while Gorman and Burleson are arbitration-eligible for just the first time this winter and won’t be eligible free agency until the 2028-29 offseason.  Burleson is coming off the best of his four MLB seasons, as he won Silver Slugger honors (from the NL utility position) after hitting .290/.343/.459 with 18 home runs over 546 PA in 2025.  Burleson split his time between first base and both corner outfield slots this year, and while he is only passable defensively, his ability to play multiple positions gives the Cardinals some lineup flexibility.  The appeal is obvious for a Pirates team looking for help all over the diamond, and for offensive help in general.

While the two NL Central rivals have rarely lined up on trades over the last few decades, the Pirates’ young pitching depth carries obvious trade appeal to a St. Louis team looking to restock their system with such arms.  This week’s trade of Sonny Gray to the Red Sox not only cleared $20M off the Cardinals’ books, but it brought back pitchers who can help the Cards in 2026 (Richard Fitts) and further in the future (prospect Brandon Clarke).

Speaking with Woo, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold and other reporters after the trade, Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said his team is aiming to add more pitching over the course of its offseason moves.  This could include more experienced arms to eat innings and act as mentors to the younger hurlers, though Bloom indicated that such veterans might be more shorter-term additions.

“Not to put them in the way of any of our youth, but to make sure we have the right insulation up and down that rotation,” Bloom said. “We want to create some competition.  We want to make sure we have options.  And that we allow our young guys to flourish while making sure that next wave that we hope is coming doesn’t get pressed into service before it’s their time.  We want to make sure they’re ready for the highest level of baseball before we throw them into the fire.  So we will look to add to our rotation — whether it’s more youth or a veteran — as the winter goes on.”

The Opener: Cease Signs, Rox Set With Schaeffer, Rendon Retirement

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Happy Thanksgiving to MLBTR’s readers in the United States, and for our non-American readers….uh, happy Thursday?  Here are three things we’re keeping an eye on besides the turkey in the oven….

1. Blue Jays land Dylan Cease:

The reigning AL champs made the priciest free agent signing in team history yesterday, as reports indicated that Toronto inked Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210MM contract.  The contract will be finalized once Cease passes a physical, and while it’s just a matter of time before we get the official announcement, it’s possible things could be delayed a few days simply due to the Thanksgiving weekend.  As it stands, the Jays seem to have already finished up their rotation shopping pretty early in the offseason, between the Cease signing and Shane Bieber’s surprising decision to exercise his player option to remain in Toronto through the 2026 campaign.  With the starting pitching mix potentially settled already, the Blue Jays can now turn their attention to re-signing Bo Bichette or adding another big bat to their lineup.  For the rest of the league, Cease’s decision removes a top-tier arm from the board, so pitching-needy teams will have to turn their attention to other starters in free agency or on the trade market.

2. Rockies re-introduce Warren Schaeffer:

After operating as Colorado’s interim manager for most of the 2025 season, Warren Schaeffer was named the club’s new full-time skipper.  There hadn’t been much news about the Rockies’ managerial search because, in essence, one didn’t happen, as president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta explained at a press conference yesterday.  DePodesta told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that he informally looked into some other candidates but “ultimately, I didn’t feel the need to interview anybody else,” as “I would say, even a week in….it became pretty clear to me that [Schaeffer] was a good direction to go.”  This won’t exactly calm the fears of Rockies worried that the team is still going to be operating in an insular fashion, even though DePodestra is an entirely fresh face as the new head of the front office.  Still, Schaeffer received praise for how he handled stepping into a rough situation last season, and his 36-86 record is obviously far more a reflection on Colorado’s dismal roster than on Schaeffer’s work in his first season as a big league manager.

3. The Anthony Rendon era nears an end in Anaheim:

Anthony Rendon’s MLB career may be officially over after 12 seasons, as the oft-injured third baseman is reportedly discussing a buyout plan with the Angels heading into the final year of his contract.  Presumably the $38MM owed to Rendon in 2026 would instead be paid out in deferred fashion over several years, giving the Angels some more short-term spending ability.  Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM deal signed in December 2019 will go down as a complete bust, as Rendon ended up playing in only 257 games over the life of the contract due to a wide variety of injuries, including a hip surgery that cost him the entire 2025 season.

Blue Jays, Dylan Cease Agree To Seven-Year Deal

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The Blue Jays are making a major splash at the top of the rotation. Toronto is in agreement with Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that’ll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.

Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the largest free agent signing in franchise history. Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they’d never gone beyond George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.

Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.

Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.

On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.

As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.

But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.

His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.

As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.

As we were deliberating our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though the deferrals will seemingly put the net present value closer just below that projection.

The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline. In the long term, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.

In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably. Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.

That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possible Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.

Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals reduce the contract’s actual value by around $4MM annually.

In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, but the penalties will get higher with any more significant additions.

The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation: a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Blue Jays and Cease were in agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

The Best Fits For Bo Bichette

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Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. Steve Adams examined which clubs should be in the running for #1 free agent Kyle Tucker earlier this week.

We now move to the consensus #2 hitter in the class, Bo Bichette. The two-time All-Star is coming off a .311/.357/.483 showing with 18 homers across 628 regular season plate appearances. A sprained left knee ended his regular season and cost him the first few rounds of the playoffs. Bichette made it back for the World Series. Despite clearly being limited and having gone a month without the benefit of live at-bats, he came back to hit .348 in the Fall Classic. His towering three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 would have gone down as one of the biggest moments in Toronto sports history if not for the Dodgers' ninth-inning comeback.

Bichette is one of the younger free agents in the class. He'll turn 28 a few weeks before Opening Day. He's a middle infielder who has been a well above-average hitter in all but one season of his career. The lone exception (2024) was a year in which he had three stints on the injured list. He has otherwise posted an OPS above .800 in every season and owns a lifetime .294/.337/.469 slash line. He has twice led the American League in hits and would have done so again this year if not for the knee injury.

The lingering question is how long Bichette can stick at shortstop. He's a below-average runner with middling arm strength who rates as one of the weakest defensive shortstops in MLB. The glove was an issue even before the knee sprain, which could increase some teams' concerns about his lateral quickness even if it's expected to heal without surgery.

The Blue Jays used him at second base in the World Series to limit his defensive workload. Most or all 30 clubs would project him as a second baseman by the end of a long-term deal. There are some for whom he'd only fit as a second baseman already. Bichette hasn't tipped his hand publicly about whether he'd be open to a position change, but that'd create more opportunities that would drum up interest.

Bichette rejected a qualifying offer. A signing team would give up draft compensation and/or international signing bonus space to add him. That's not much of a factor for a free agent of this caliber. MLBTR predicted Bichette to command an eight-year, $208MM contract -- joining Tucker as the only players for whom we're predicting $200MM+ this winter.

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