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The Twins Are One Of The Keys To The Trade Deadline

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The Twins have looked like sellers for much of the season, but as we’ve seen in recent years, most clubs prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to chart a course. As noted here recently, Minnesota faces almost exclusively AL Central clubs leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. If there was a 2019 Nationals-esque surge in this group, now would be the time to set it in motion.

The Twins started off taking two of three against an Indians club whose rotation is in tatters, but they’ve dropped their first two against the White Sox to fall 13.5 games out of first place in the division. For a team that needs to be nearly flawless over this pivotal stretch of divisional opponents — particularly versus Cleveland and Chicago — dropping three of the first five games isn’t a great start.

Given that this was a team most expected to contend for the Central, at the very least, it’s not at all surprising that there are several players who’d interest contenders. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in yesterday’s 20 Questions column that the Twins are “the team almost every contender is waiting on.” Minnesota still plays the White Sox eight times, the Tigers a whopping 11 times and the Royals three times before the trade deadline, so maybe they can pull off the macro version of last night’s staggering Angels comeback, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that this goes the direction most onlookers have expected for awhile now.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Twins could do as the deadline draws nearer…

The Rentals

Michael Pineda, RHP ($10MM salary): Pineda is currently on the shelf with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s been out since June 14, but he’s slated for a rehab start in Triple-A today. Assuming there are no setbacks, Pineda would be one of the most attractive options on the rental market. He’s an established mid-rotation arm who has performed well with the Twins when he’s been able to take the mound (3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 228 2/3 innings over 42 starts). Pineda did get hit with a PED suspension in 2019, although it was one of the rare instances where the league seems to have believed some of his plea of innocence, as MLB reduced his ban from 80 to 60 games. Many undoubtedly recall Pineda’s pine tar-covered hat in his Yankees days and will wonder about him in connection to the current crackdown on foreign substances. On that note, it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates were below-average in the first place and had actually decreased since signing with the Twins. We can’t know anything for sure, of course, but on paper he doesn’t look like your typical “Spider Tack” case.

Nelson Cruz, DH ($13MM): Happy 41st birthday, Nelson! The Boomstick is still swinging it as well as ever, slashing .307/.378/.585 with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz has been 57 percent better than a league-average hitter, per wRC+, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in his first two years with Minnesota down to 19.1 percent in 2021. His market will be limited to AL clubs unless some NL GM really, really wants an interleague/World Series DH and an occasional pinch-hitter. (We’ve all learned never to rule anything out with A.J. Preller by now.) AL contenders who could use an upgrade at DH include the A’s, Blue Jays, Rays and White Sox. Of course, Cruz’s salary may be steep for the A’s and Rays, and it’s hard to imagine the Twins shipping Cruz to their top division rival.

Andrelton Simmons, SS ($10MM): Simmons hasn’t been great with the bat in Minnesota — .245/.316/.328, 81 wRC+ — but the defense looks sharp. Simmons’ defensive metrics took a tumble in both 2019 and 2020 after he suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain and then re-sprained that ankle a second time. In 2021, he’s third among all players, regardless of position, with 12 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. He’s also notched a plus-2 mark in Defensive Runs Saved after registering minus-2 in that regard in just 265 innings last summer. The ankle appears healthy, and his range has seemingly improved as a result. If you want to upgrade your infield defense, they don’t come much better than this.

Alex Colome, RHP ($6.25MM): Colome was the Twins’ biggest offseason pickup in the bullpen, but the outstanding fortune he had on balls in play with the White Sox went up in smoke in 2021. Teams were surely wary of Colome’s .211 average on balls in play over the past two seasons with the ChiSox, which quite likely why the Twins were able to wait him out and get him for just a year and $6.25MM. Colome immediately stumbled out of the gates in Minnesota, blowing a game in his first appearance and floundering through a poor overall showing in April. He’s posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a huge 58.1 percent grounder rate in 20 innings since, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as impressive as he did for the South Siders. Presumably, the asking price here wouldn’t be too high.

Hansel Robles, RHP ($2MM): Robles’ numbers would’ve looked better had this breakdown been written before his past two appearances, when he’s been tagged for four runs in two innings. But the right-hander is still sporting a 3.63 ERA and 48.3 percent ground-ball rate — albeit with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a bloated 13.6 percent walk rate. He’s also experienced a rebound in fastball velocity after a dip in 2020, and he’s on a cheap enough contract that a contending club with luxury tax concerns might be particularly intrigued.

J.A. Happ, LHP ($8MM): Happ got out to a decent start in 2021, but he’s been shelled for most of his past nine appearances. His best performance in that stretch was his most recent, when he held Cleveland to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with seven punchouts in six innings. If he can string together a few more nice outings like that, maybe some club would pick him up for a negligible return (i.e. partial salary relief) to try to stabilize the back of its rotation.

More Controllable Possibilities

Jose Berrios, RHP ($6.1MM, controllable through 2022): If the Twins were to make Berrios available, he might be the most coveted name on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that the Cardinals have inquired and, unsurprisingly, found the asking price to be quite high. Still, Passan writes that a growing number of executives around the game expect the Twins to be willing to seriously consider a trade. That’s likely indicative of the level of interest in Berrios, as the Twins don’t seem likely to embark on a total rebuild even if they do sell. They’d likely seek young controllable, big-league ready talent in a trade of Berrios, who boasts a 3.41 ERA and matching 3.40 FIP with a career-best 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.4 percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career). His current salary is eminently affordable, and even with an aggressive raise in arbitration, he’d still be a bargain next year. Any contending club would love to have Berrios — it’s just a matter of how strong the offers are and whether the Twins are willing to compromise their 2022 roster by trading the best pitcher they’ve developed in the past decade.

Taylor Rogers, LHP ($6MM, controllable through 2022): Rogers has put a shaky (by his standards) 2020 season behind him. Through his first 32 innings, he’s sitting on a 2.53 ERA that’s actually higher than his FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Rogers’ 32.6 percent strikeout rate is back in line with his 2019 level, and this year’s 3.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career. He has the fifth-best chase rate of any qualified reliever in MLB. As with Berrios, Rogers could play a key role for the 2022 Twins, so the offer would need to  be strong. But relievers with this combination of swing-and-miss ability and command — particularly lefties — are tough to come by, so the demand will be sizable. This is also a Twins front office that generally hasn’t been keen on committing too much to any individual reliever, and Rogers’ final arbitration raise will push his salary into the $8-9MM range. A trade to a contender is very plausible. (As an aside, it’d be quite the fun story to see twin brothers co-closing games for a contending club. We’re all looking at you, Giants.)

Tyler Duffey, RHP ($2.2MM, controllable through 2022): Duffey hasn’t been the dominant setup man he was in 2019-20, but he’s controlled another season on a cheap salary and has still been effective in 2021. There’s no sugar-coating that his strikeout and walk rates from 2019-20 have dropped from 34.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 22 percent and 12.6 percent in 2021. He’s improved both a bit over his past 15 outings, though, and only allowed two runs in that time. Overall, he has a 3.52 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 30 2/3 innings. As with Robles, if you’re a contending team with luxury tax concerns, taking a chance on a cheap reliever with a bigger track record probably has some appeal.

Caleb Thielbar, LHP ($700K, controllable through 2024): A Minnesota native and feel-good comeback story from 2020, Thielbar can be controlled another three years beyond the current campaign. That might make dealing him counterintuitive should the Twins be looking for a quick turnaround after a theoretical summer sale, but Thielbar will turn 35 this offseason and relievers are volatile in the first place. The Twins brought him back from indie ball last year, so there’s a “playing with house money” element to marketing him. He’s pitched 50 1/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate since returning last summer. Fielding-independent metrics largely support the ERA. With multiple contenders sitting right on the luxury-tax precipice, Thielbar could be an under-the-radar but highly attractive chip for the Twins.

Longer Shots

Like Berrios, Rogers and Duffey, Byron Buxton is controlled only through the 2022 season. However, Buxton is on the injured list after an errant fastball fractured his left hand in a recent at-bat, and it’s nearly impossible to envision the Twins moving their most talented player at such a low point. The durability concerns with Buxton are understandable, and his repeated absences in 2021 have been a major factor in the Twins’ current predicament, but trading him doesn’t feel realistic.

It’s a similar story with righty Kenta Maeda, who has been hit hard this season and spent time on the injured list with an adductor strain. The Twins control him into 2023, and even if his struggles as a starter continue, his $3.25MM base salary is plenty reasonable if he’s in a bullpen or hybrid role. He doesn’t need to be the ace-caliber arm he was in 2020 to justify his contract, and the flexibility he provides the Twins moving forward carries more value than what they’d receive by selling low in a trade.

Right fielder Max Kepler and second baseman Jorge Polanco would no doubt attract interest thanks to their long-term deals, but Kepler is in the midst of his own down season and controlled affordably all the way through 2024. Polanco had a dismal three-week slump to open the year but has hit quite well (.275/.345/.483) since that time. He’s signed through 2025, so there’s little reason for the Twins to consider anything there.

Josh Donaldson is hitting .299/.382/.662 over the past month and has homered in three straight games, but he’s also 35 years old and only in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract that affords him limited no-trade protection. It’s tough to see something coming together with all the money still owed to him.

The Twins might welcome a taker for strikeout-plagued slugger Miguel Sano, who is hitting .195/.280/.435 this season with a 37 percent punchout rate. But Sano is making $11MM this year, $9.25MM in 2022, and is also owed a $2.75MM buyout on a $14MM option for the 2023 season.

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With a deep reserve of enticing position prospects, headlined by current big leaguers Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus several key pieces under long-term control and plenty of payroll space this winter, the Twins shouldn’t be expected to completely tear the roster down. It’d make sense to target some controllable arms, however, as they’ve dealt with injuries to several of their top pitching prospects in 2021 (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino among them).

At the end of the day, the Twins might prefer to hold out a bit longer before waving the proverbial white flag, but they’d need a historic rally to overcome a 13.5-game deficit in the division or a 12.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race at this point in the season. It increasingly feels like a matter of time before they start moving some short-term veterans, with the greater question being how aggressively they’ll sell rather than whether they’ll sell at all.

Twins To Sign Alex Colome

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Feb. 4: The option on the deal is mutual, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune indicates. If the Twins decline the $5.5MM option, they’ll owe Colome a $1.25MM buyout. If the Twins pick up the option but Colome declines in favor of free agency, he won’t receive any buyout.

Feb. 3: The Twins are signing free-agent reliever Alex Colome to a one-year deal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The contract includes a $5MM salary for 2021 and an option. In all, it’s a $6.25MM guarantee, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

The Twins were mentioned as suitors for Colome earlier Wednesday, so it isn’t surprising they’re bringing in the former Ray, Mariner and White Sox. The 32-year-old right-hander could now be the closer for Minnesota, having saved 138 games in the bigs. He converted 12 of 13 saves with the division-rival White Sox last year.

Colome, who averages 94 mph-plus on his fastball, has saved nearly 86 percent of chances in his career. At times, though, his strikeout numbers have fallen short. Last season, for instance, he ranked 126th out of 141 relievers with at least 20 innings in strikeout percentage (17.8). Colome did, however, finish better than average in walk and groundball rates (9.2 percent and 52.4 percent, respectively). He was also a Statcast darling who ranked above the vast majority of hurlers in several of its important categories.

The Twins’ bullpen checked in third in the majors in fWAR in 2020, though it has since lost Trevor May to the Mets in free agency, while Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo – who combined for 43 frames – remain available. The addition of Colome should help plug those holes for Minnesota.

Twins Interested In Colome, Wilson, Clippard

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3:56pm: Minnesota’s “expected” to sign Colome, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

1:32pm: In addition to Colome, the Twins have shown interest in re-signing Clippard and in signing lefty Justin Wilson, Hayes further reports. Minnesota has also at least gauged the price tags of Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Joakim Soria and Trevor Rosenthal, though the latter two could be seeking more than the Twins are comfortable committing to them, Hayes adds. It’s a wide slate of candidates, but the Twins could sign multiple relievers to bolster their relief corps.

9:07am: It’s been a busy couple of weeks for the Twins, but they’re still pursuing upgrades after finally agreeing to a new deal with designated hitter Nelson Cruz last night. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have interest in adding Alex Colome to their bullpen and are still looking at options to fill out their rotation. Twins fans hoping to see the club roll the dice on a Mike Foltynewicz rebound after watching his recent showcase may not get their wish, though, as SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson tweets that a signing is “more unlikely than likely.” Wolfson does suggest that the Twins have a current offer out to a reliever.

This isn’t the first time the Twins have been tied to Colome. However, in the month since that initial link, they’ve spent a combined $31.5MM on Cruz, Andrelton Simmons and J.A. Happ, so maintained interest in one of the better relievers remaining on the market wasn’t necessarily a given. The Twins currently project to open the season with a payroll in the $123MM range, but they’d have been north of $130MM last year prior to prorated salaries.

Owner Jim Pohlad recently voiced a vastly different mindset than many of his counterparts throughout the league, telling reporters he’s not looking at ways to “make up” for lost revenue from the 2020 season by slashing payroll (link via La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).

“We don’t really think of it like that,” Pohlad said in a Zoom call. “I’m not sure if we can ever make up for it. None of our objective includes trying to make up for what happened in 2020. It was significant. It was devastating. And you have to accept that as a loss going forward and not make it a goal to recover those losses either from fans or by affecting our payroll. That’s not the mind-set we have been in at all.”

The Twins’ recent activity reflects that outlook, and a deal with Colome would only further illustrate that stance. The 32-year-old spent the past two seasons as the closer for the division-rival White Sox. In 83 1/3 innings with the South Siders, he’s pitched to a 2.27 ERA and racked up 42 saves, although the rest of his numbers don’t look as dominant. Colome’s 20.9 percent strikeout rate is below-average in today’s game, and he’s registered a rather pedestrian 3.78 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.

With the White Sox, Colome leaned aggressively on a two-pitch arsenal, throwing four-seamers and cutters exclusively — the latter nearly thrice as often as the former. In 2019, he got away with that mix despite giving up far too much hard contact, but he seemed to improve his utilization of that two-pitch mix in 2020.

Colome’s hard-hit rate fell sharply, from 41.2 percent to 32.8 percent, and only two of the balls put into play against him registered as “barreled balls,” per Statcast’s definition. Opponents’ average exit velocity against Colome plummeted from 91.3 percent in 2019 — one of the highest marks in baseball — to a lower-than-average 87.2 mph in 2020. And, despite registering one of the lowest strikeout percentages of his career last season, Colome actually posted career-high marks in swinging-strike rate and in opponents’ chase rate, which surely creates some optimism about his ability to rebound in the strikeout department.

For all the focus on the Twins’ rotation this winter, it’s the bullpen that’s a more dire area of need at the moment. The quartet of Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Happ gives the Twins four solid options atop the starting staff, but the bullpen has quietly been depleted. Minnesota lost Trevor May to the Mets and Matt Wisler (who was non-tendered) to the Giants. Veterans Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, meanwhile, are both free agents and remain unsigned. Taylor Rogers is still the favorite for saves in Minnesota for now, although Colome would give manager Rocco Baldelli another ninth-inning option with some experience. The fact that Baldelli and Colome know each other well from their time together with the Rays can’t hurt the Twins’ chances at a deal.

Latest On Phillies’ Free Agent Targets

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The hiring of Dave Dombrowski as the Phillies’ new president of baseball operations brought renewed hope that the team could re-sign J.T. Realmuto, though the Phils still hadn’t made an official offer to Realmuto as of late December.  “The Phillies continue to be engaged” in discussions with Realmuto and his representatives, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes, but the team is also doing the same with another of its high-profile free agents — shortstop Didi Gregorius.

There hasn’t been much in the way of news about Gregorius this offseason, despite a solid 2020 season that saw him hit .284/.339/.488 with 10 homers over 237 PA for Philadelphia.  After accepting a one-year contract with the Phillies last winter in order to rebuild his value after an injury-shortened 2019 campaign, Gregorius’ seemingly successful plan ran into a pair of roadblocks — the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on teams’ spending habits, and a very deep shortstop market.  Not only are such names as Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons still available on the open market, a number of prominent shortstops have been rumored to be trade chips, with two such players (Francisco Lindor to the Mets, Jose Iglesias to the Angels) addressing the shortstop needs of two would-be suitors for Gregorius and company.

The door therefore still seems open for a reunion between Gregorius and the Phillies, though it still remains to be seen how much the club is willing to spend this offseason.  Salisbury raises the possibility that both Realmuto and Gregorius could be re-signed, which would run counter to the early-offseason narrative that the Phillies would be hampered by revenue losses, but it’s probably safe to assume that Dombrowski wouldn’t have taken the job without some assurance that he would be allowed to make some higher-tier additions.

It could be that Philadelphia is first waiting to see what happens with Realmuto before turning to Gregorius as a possible backup plan.  The Phillies are technically set around the infield already, with Jean Segura slated to move back to his old shortstop position, Alec Bohm slated for third base and Scott Kingery tapped for regular second base duty.  Signing Gregorius would allow for more roster flexibility, perhaps with Kingery moving back into a super-utility role, and it would better bolster the Phillies’ hitting depth if the DH is again part of National League lineups.

Beyond the everyday lineup, the Phillies are also still looking for more bullpen help in the wake of a disastrous performance from the 2020 relief corps.  To this end, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) reports that the Phillies and Padres are interested in closer Alex Colome, joining such previously-known suitors as the Twins and Red Sox.  The Astros and Nationals were also linked to Colome earlier this winter, but the White Sox are now likely out of the running after signing Liam Hendriks.

Colome would be yet another big offseason addition for the aggressive Padres, who look to be challengers for the NL pennant but are still lacking some help at the back of the bullpen with Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates both in free agency.  A proven closer like Colome would only further strengthen an already solid San Diego bullpen, but the Phillies clearly have the more glaring need for relief help.

Thus far in the offseason, the Phillies have already added Jose Alvarado, Sam Coonrod, Ian Hamilton, and (on minors deals) Neftali Feliz and Michael Ynoa as they try to figure out the state of their 2021 relief picture.  Colome would surely take over as the regular closer, moving Hector Neris and Alvarado into setup roles and reinforcing the late-game mix.

Five Teams Showing Interest In Alex Colome

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There hasn’t been much public buzz about Alex Colome’s market this winter, but the former All-Star has been attracting some attention in free agency.  Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (via Twitter) reports that the Twins “recently inquired” about Colome’s services, while FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter links) adds that the Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, and White Sox have also shown interest.

For the last five seasons, Colome has been a solid and occasionally dominant ninth-inning option, racking up 138 saves for the Rays, Mariners, and White Sox since the start of the 2016 season.  With Chicago in 2020, Colome posted just an 0.81 ERA over 22 1/3 innings, while posting a largely impressive slate of Statcast metrics (in particular finishing in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage).  ERA predictors, however, weren’t nearly as impressed with his work, as Colome’s 2.97 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, and 4.44 SIERA all reflected his ordinary 6.4 K/9, as well as some good fortune in the form of a .200 BABIP and 86.4% strand rate.  He also didn’t allow a single home run last year, which isn’t likely to be duplicated over a full season.

Colome largely relies on a two-pitch arsenal of a cutter (which he has thrown over 70% of the time in each of the last two seasons) and a four-seam fastball that clocks around the 94.4mph range.  It’s hard to argue with results, of course, though teams could be wary of committing big money to the 32-year-old Colome going forward if they feel his advanced metrics will start catching up to his on-field numbers.

That said, the lack of Colome updates to this point could also be par for the course during an offseason that hasn’t seen much high-priced movement in the relief market.  Trevor May’s two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Mets represents the only significant contract given to a relief pitcher this winter, and such names as Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, and Trevor Rosenthal continue to wait for their next teams (not to mention many other prominent relievers who could be available in trades).

As we inch closer to the projected start of Spring Training, it isn’t surprising that we’ll hear more news about interest in Colome and other relievers as teams start to get aggressive about filling holes in the bullpen.  All five of the teams linked to Colome have needs at the back of their respective pen, even if a provisional closer is already in place to handle the bulk of save opportunities.  For the White Sox in particular, there has been speculation that the team could elevate Aaron Bummer or Evan Marshall to closer if Colome went elsewhere, though it would make sense that Chicago would welcome back a familiar closer (at the right price, of course) if the Sox want some ninth-inning experience for what they hope will be a deeper run into the postseason.

10 Players Switch Agencies

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Agent Rafa Nieves’ newly-founded Republik Sports agency will represent several players formerly represented by Nieves at Wasserman.  A video published earlier today on Republik’s official Twitter feed reveals the names of 11 players who will continue to be represented by Nieves at this new firm.

We already heard last night that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (a Nieves client at Wasserman) was joining Republik, and the other ten names cited in the video include a mix of prominent veteran and up-and-coming stars.  The list consists of Indians infielder Jose Ramirez, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo, Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco, Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas, Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero, Marlins catcher Francisco Cervelli, and White Sox relievers Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera.

As we’ve seen in several past cases of representatives changing agencies or starting new agencies, it’s quite common for players to continue using the same agent even after that rep becomes part of another company.  We saw this in 2017 with Nieves himself, as several of the aforementioned players (namely Ramirez, Robles, Herrera, Colome, Cervelli, Polanco, and Montas) all went with Nieves when the agent moved from the Beverly Hills Sports Council to Wasserman.

The 10 changes have all been updated in our Agency Database.  If you see any notable errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via e-mail: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

Read more

AL Central Notes: Colome, Ramirez, Twins

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In the wake of the Nationals’ dramatic NLDS victory over the Dodgers last night, it is perhaps fitting that October 10 marks another red-letter day in Washington baseball history….not to mention Minnesota baseball history.  It was on this day back in 1924 that the Twins won their first World Series, though they were still several decades away from becoming the Twins, as the franchise played in D.C. as the Washington Senators from 1901-1960.  The Senators beat the New York Giants in a dramatic Game Seven that lasted 12 innings, with the legendary Walter Johnson earning the win after tossing four shutout innings in relief.  1924 marked the franchise’s only Series title in Washington, as the Senators/Twins wouldn’t again win it all until 1987.

Some items from around the AL Central…

  • Though Alex Colome is projected to earn $10.3MM in salary next year, the Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) doesn’t think the high arbitration price tag will prevent the White Sox from bringing the closer back in 2020.  GM Rick Hahn indicated after the season that the performances of Colome and Aaron Bummer as Chicago’s late-game duo “makes you feel real good about their spot going forward,” and Fegan notes that the Sox likely wouldn’t have acquired Colome from the Mariners last winter if they were worried about paying him in 2020, given how save totals predictably lead to big raises for closers in the arbitration process.  Both advanced metrics (.215 BABIP, and a 2.64 wOBA that was far below his .324 xwOBA) and ERA predictors (4.08 FIP, 4.61 xFIP, 4.38 SIERA) indicated that Colome was rather fortunate to post his 2.80 ERA over 61 innings last season, so a non-tender or a trade is perhaps feasible if the White Sox felt a bigger course correction was on the way next year.
  • Jose Ramirez is open to playing either second base or third base next season, though he has told Indians management that he doesn’t want to shift between the two positions, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  Ramirez played exclusively at third base in 2019 and spent most of his time at the hot corner in 2018, though he moved over to second base late in the year to accommodate the Tribe’s acquisition of Josh Donaldson.  Ramirez also more or less split time between third (736 2/3 innings) and second (577 1/3 innings) in 2017 due to an injury to regular second baseman Jason Kipnis.  Over the last three seasons in question, Ramirez has been an above-average defender at third base as per the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics, while UZR/150 has been a bit less impressed with his work as a second baseman, though the 27-year-old is still overall pretty solid at the keystone.  “I think we’re comfortable that Jose can play both at a premium defensive quality,” manager Terry Francona said.  “I agree with him, going back and forth is hard, especially at this point in his career.”  Ramirez’s ability to handle either infield role gives Cleveland some flexibility in pursuing infield help this winter, assuming the team doesn’t rely on some combination of Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, or Andrew Velazquez to handle the other position in 2020.
  • The Twins are already planning to chase some front-of-the-rotation pitchers this offseason, and Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune opines that outfielder Eddie Rosario could be “the logical trading chip” to try and land an arm.  Rosario hit .276/.300/.500 with 32 homers over 590 PA for Minnesota last season, and he has 83 total home runs over the last three seasons.  After posting a decent .326 OBP in 2017-18, however, Rosario had much more difficult getting on base this past year, and he also didn’t have a good defensive year as a left fielder (though he did fare much better defensively in 2018).  Trading Rosario would result in a projected starting outfield of Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Marwin Gonzalez, with top prospects Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach all potentially available as late-season call-ups.  More veteran outfield depth could also be added at a lower price than Rosario, who is projected to earn a hefty arbitration raise to $8.9MM, up significantly from his $4.19MM salary in 2019.

White Sox Reportedly “Planning To Keep” Alex Colome

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The White Sox are “currently planning to keep” closer Alex Colome rather than shipping him out of town today, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Colome checked in at the #26 spot on MLBTR’s recent ranking of the top 75 trade candidates in baseball.

Colome has all the outward signs of a top trade target. The 30-year-old carries a 2.21 ERA and has racked up 21 saves in his 40 2/3 frames on the season, and still possesses mid-nineties heat.

Otherwise, however, he hasn’t been very impressive in 2019. Colome’s combination of 7.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 and a 44.8% groundball rate looks more like that of a common middle-reliever. He surely deserves some credit for holding opponents to an anemic .147 batting average on balls in play, but Statcast figures suggest quite the opposite. Colome carries a .324 xwOBA based upon the quality of contact against him, well north of the .223 wOBA that batters have produced.

As ever, contract rights matter quite a bit as well. Colome is earning $7.325MM this year with one more arbitration season yet to come. That’s an appealing situation for a lock-down closer, but seems quite pricey if that’s not how you value Colome. Indeed, the low ERA and lofty save totals he’s accruing this year also promise to raise his salary quite a bit in 2020.

In the aggregate, it’s not especially surprising to hear that interest isn’t building to a crescendo on deadline day. True, the White Sox’ postseason hopes are dim. And Nightengale says that the South Siders have fielded interest from “plenty of teams.” But the club wants a reliable ninth-inning arm for 2020 and already paid a fairly heavy price for Colome. (In addition to the salary, the cheap and controllable Omar Narvaez is raking in Seattle.) Rather than swinging a trade and going out to find a replacement this fall, the Chicago organization will seemingly hang tight and keep the known quantity.

Pitching Chatter: Vazquez, Diaz, Ray, Colome, Greene

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As the Dodgers continue to try to pry closer Felipe Vazquez loose from the Pirates, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link) that the sides are at a bit of an impasse. It seems the Bucs would (quite understandably) like to receive soaring L.A. prospect Gavin Lux, a versatile infielder who has completely obliterated Triple-A pitching (.474/.553/.918 in 114 plate appearances with eight home runs and a 17:17 K/BB ratio) since a mid-season promotion. The clubs may well be engaged in a bit of a staring contest as the deadline draws near.

More news and rumors from the pitching market …

  • The Rays may have faded in the AL East, but they’re not planning to go quietly. Olney tweets that the club is “doing work” on Mets reliever Edwin Diaz, making for an intriguing (if vague) connection. Beyond the obvious appeal of a high-charged young hurler who has shown a past ability to dominate like few others, there are a few other reasons to like this match. Diaz’s run of poor results will limit his arbitration earning power, boosting his appeal to the payroll-conscious Rays. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Diaz is every bit as good as ever before.
  • Rival organizations “fully expect” the Diamondbacks to deal southpaw Robbie Ray, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Arizona GM Mike Hazen continued to acknowledge his club’s tricky middle ground while avoiding a firm commitment to a particular course of action, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The top baseball ops man did acknowledge that there’s a possibility the team could pull off enough sell-side moves that it wouldn’t make sense to reload in the offseason. At the moment, the Brewers, Astros, and Yankees are among the teams with active talks or interest in Ray, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
  • With a real shot at a much-anticipated return to the top of the heap in the NL Central, the Cardinals could yet swing a big deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the St. Louis ballclub is interested in a controllable starter. Beyond that, the Cards’ precise plans remain a bit difficult to ascertain. The club is interested in lefty relief pitching, though that’s a trade deadline staple for many contenders. We haven’t seen the team connected prominently to any high-end hurlers, but a bold move seems tempting.
  • We’ve seen the Yankees connected to a wide variety of hurlers in recent weeks, with the club focused primarily on starters but also entertaining relief upgrades. They’ve recently chatted with the Tigers about old friend Shane Greene, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). Most contenders are no doubt at least checking in on Greene, who’s among the likeliest players in baseball to be traded in the coming days.
  • Similarly, the Phillies have cast an exceedingly broad net. Their relief situation remains problematic; now, there are indications that David Robertson’s rehab may drag into September, as Nightengale was among those to tweet. Another name to add to the list of Phils possibilities: Alex Colome of the White Sox. Morosi tweets that there’s “continued interest” on the part of the Philadelphia organization.
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