- The Braves have six seasons remaining on their current TV contract with Bally Sports, and the team will soon receive an increase in their annual revenues from that deal, Tim Tucker of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Beginning in 2023, the Braves will receive over $100MM per year, and that number will rise to close to $120MM by 2027. It isn’t known if this increase will directly impact payroll, but Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has said the Braves have more available to spend in 2022. The TV contract and other details about the team’s business were revealed in a Liberty Media (the Braves’ parent corporation) investors conference this past Thursday, which included Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei saying that there weren’t any plans to sell the Braves. Given all the positive information presented to investors, it isn’t surprising that Liberty Media would want to keep the team, as revenues generally continued to rebound both in the wake of the pandemic, and with the Braves’ World Series run adding even more of a benefit. As Maffei simply put it, “it has been a pretty good run” for Liberty Media since buying the club in 2007.
Braves Rumors
Braves Select Drew Waters, Three Others
The Braves announced that they’ve added four prospects — outfielder Drew Waters and right-handed pitchers Freddy Tarnok, Brooks Wilson and William Woods — to their 40-man roster. All four players would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to Atlanta’s roster before tomorrow evening’s deadline. The club’s 40-man is now full.
Waters is the highest-profile of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2017, the switch-hitting outfielder emerged as one of the sport’s most promising prospects early in his career. Waters hit very well in the low minors, flashing a strong combination of bat-to-ball skills, athleticism and defensive aptitude in center field. By 2019, he’d made it onto Baseball America’s top 100 overall prospects list. He remained one of the game’s top farmhands over the next few years, topping out at #32 entering this past season.
The 2021 campaign was something of a struggle, though, as the 22-year-old spent the entire year with Triple-A Gwinnett. He hit .240/.329/.381 with 11 homers over 459 plate appearances, striking out at an alarming 30.9% clip. As he’s climbed the minor league ladder, evaluators have increasingly raised questions about his aggressive approach at the plate. Waters’ issues against high minors pitching have dinged his stock a bit, but he still checked as the #6 farmhand in the system this offseason and was always a lock to be protected given his pre-2021 pedigree. Depending on how the Braves address their uncertain outfield mix this winter, Waters could be a big league option fairly early in 2022.
Tarnok, Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2017, has slowly progressed up the minor league ladder. The 22-year-old (23 next week) reached Double-A this season, where he worked to a 2.60 ERA over 45 innings with a fantastic 33.7% strikeout percentage and a manageable 8.3% walk rate. Keith Law of the Athletic wrote in July that Tarnok could be an above-average starter at his peak, praising his 93-96 MPH fastball, athleticism and curveball feel. He’s yet to reach Triple-A, though, so it seems likely the Braves will want Tarnok to get a bit more seasoning in the minors before bringing him up for his big league debut.
Wilson, 25, was a seventh-round pick out of Stetson University in 2018. He’s never appeared on an organizational ranking at either FanGraphs or Baseball America, but he had a very strong season between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett in 2021. Over 50 innings of relief, Wilson worked to a combined 2.34 ERA with an astronomical 41.4% strikeout rate and a 9.4% walk percentage. He could be an option for the MLB bullpen as soon as next season.
Woods, 22, was a 23rd-rounder in that 2018 draft out of a Tennessee junior college. Both BA and FanGraphs ranked him the #21 prospect in the Atlanta system entering 2021, praising his mid-high 90’s fastball and promising slider. Both outlets expressed reservations about his control but suggested his velocity could at least make him an effective option out of the bullpen. Injuries limited him to just four appearances at High-A Rome this year.
Final Qualifying Offer Decisions
Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.
Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.
Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.
Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):
- Nick Castellanos, Reds
- Michael Conforto, Mets
- Carlos Correa, Astros
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays
- Eduardo Rodríguez, Red Sox (later signed with Tigers)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays
- Trevor Story, Rockies
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets (later signed with Angels)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers
- Justin Verlander, Astros (to re-sign with Astros)
Latest On Justin Verlander’s Market
1:47pm: The White Sox are also showing “strong” interest in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. They’re planning an “aggressive” offseason, per Nightengale, and hoping to kick things off with a successful courtship of Verlander. Of course, the South Siders’ spring facility is in Arizona, which isn’t ideal based on Verlander’s reported preferences, but that certainly doesn’t rule them out of the bidding entirely.
12:58pm: Verlander has both multi-year and one-year offers in hand, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), adding that the right-hander could make a final decision as soon as this week.
11:47am: The Braves are also among the teams with interest in Verlander, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Atlanta would align well with Verlander’s reported preference for an East Coast club with Spring Training in Florida, and their status as reigning World Series champions obviously helps when pursuing any older veteran prioritizing a contender. Of course, all those players inked sizable one-year deals, whereas Verlander may be seeking multiple guaranteed seasons.
The Braves had had few qualms about signing short-term veterans of this nature under under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — evidenced by recent short-term pickups of Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton and Josh Donaldson.
10:46am: Justin Verlander has until 5pm ET today to accept or reject a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer (as do all other free agents who received a QO), but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject and fully explore his options. That’s due in part to Astros owner Jim Crane saying last month that Verlander will be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, but it’s also due to what’s reported to be strong early interest in the future Hall of Famer.
Verlander held a showcase for teams earlier this month — a step that would seem unlikely were he simply planning to accept the Astros’ QO — and his reps at ISE Baseball have had the past 10 days to gauge interest from other clubs. Ken Rosenthal suggested on MLB Network this morning (video link) that early indications are Verlander would prefer to sign with a club that holds Spring Training in Florida, which meshes with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that several interested teams believe Verlander prefers to play with an East Coast club.
Notably, Sherman adds that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays — each of whom hold Spring Training in Florida — made “aggressive” offers to another high-upside, short-term pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery: Noah Syndergaard. Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Syndergaard had multiple offers at or near the $21MM price point for which he agreed to join the Angels, including one approaching $25MM in value. It’s not expressly clear that the Jays or Red Sox offered $21MM+ for Syndergaard, but it’s notable that both teams were aggressive on a fellow Tommy John reclamation play.
Verlander has drawn interest from both Toronto and Boston, per Sherman, who adds that the Yankees seem fairly serious with their interest in the 39-year-old. Verlander, somewhat notably, held his recent showcase at Cressey Sports Performance — the Florida-based training facility operated by Yankees director of player health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber did the same last offseason before ultimately agreeing to a deal with the Yankees. As noted at the time of the showcase, the location of Verlander’s audition alone doesn’t tip the scale in the Yankees’ favor, but it shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either.
Geographical preference notwithstanding, the best offer is likely to win the bidding for Verlander at the end of the day. It’s unlikely he’d leave an extra year or tens of millions of dollars on the table to spurn a West Coast team to sign in New York, Boston or Toronto. Factors like geography, Spring Training locale and familiarity with teammates (e.g. Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, George Springer in Toronto) are often, albeit not always, more tiebreakers when weighing comparable offers.
Tigers fans, of course, undoubtedly would love to see a reunion in Detroit and are surely heartened to see Verlander’s preference for Florida-based Spring Training outfits. However, Rosenthal also suggests that the Tigers may not be “in as heavily” as other interested clubs.
Sixth Year Still A Sticking Point In Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves
Though the consensus around the game remains that a reunion between Freddie Freeman and the Braves is something of a fait accompli, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the two sides are still hung up on the length of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that the 2020 NL MVP had already rejected the Braves’ best offer ($135MM over five years), though it’s unclear if that’s the same offer the club had made when Heyman reported a “gap” between the two sides in September.
Freeman, who has played the entirety of his twelve-year big-league career in Atlanta, is reportedly looking for a deal that would pay him something closer to $200MM over six years. Whether or not the Braves have bumped up their dollar offer is unclear, but the first baseman, who cemented his place in the annals of Braves history during the club’s 2021 World Series run, appears set on receiving a deal that would take him through at least his age-37 season. It’s quite clear that a carbon-copy of the five-year, $130MM deal Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals ahead of the 2019 season won’t get it done. MLBTR projects that Freeman will ultimately sign for six years and $180MM.
Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has already confirmed the club will run a higher payroll in 2022. To keep Freeman around, they’ll have to; following yesterday’s signing of Manny Piña, Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates (including arbitration salary projections) that the Braves have already committed just shy of $133MM to their 2022 roster. This figure could decrease with a suspension of Marcell Ozuna (who’s slated to earn $16MM next year) or if the club chooses to non-tender a few of its arbitration-eligible players (Johan Camargo, Sean Newcomb, and Orlando Arcia are all non-tender candidates), but not by enough to accommodate the roughly $30MM Freeman will command on an annual basis without a significant payroll bump.
Beyond Freeman’s importance as the face of the franchise (a role he inherited from Chipper Jones), his career numbers justify a significant investment. Since debuting as a September call-up in 2010, Freeman has put together the numbers of a likely future Hall 0f Famer, compiling a .295/.384/.509 career slash-line while mashing 271 homers. His best year came in the abbreviated 2020 season, when he put together a monstrous .341/.462/.640 line across 60 games and won his first career MVP. A pillar of consistency, Freeman hasn’t posted an OPS+ below 132 since 2012 (his age-22 season) and has played in at least 147 games in all but two of his eleven full seasons. He’s not yet shown any signs of regression, as he followed up his MVP year with a .300/.393/.503 line (basically identical to his career marks) and an OPS north of 1.000 in the playoffs.
Among the many interesting wrinkles in the surprisingly drawn-out process of a reigning World Champion attempting to hold on to its best player is the Braves’ ownership structure. Because Liberty Media, the club’s owner since a complicated stock swap deal with Time Warner in 2007, is a publicly traded company, it must disclose a detailed account of its earnings on a quarterly basis, giving fans and followers of the industry a unique look into the team’s internal financial workings. Maury Brown of Forbes reports that the club posted baseball-related revenues of $222MM in the third quarter of 2021 (roughly the second half of the season) alone.
Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, who beat the Braves in both the ’96 and ’99 Fall Classics, have at least kicked the tires on Freeman — a development likely to send shivers down the spines of Braves fans. Though hardly surprising — every team with money and a need at first base is likely to at least check in — the news will only put further pressure on Anthopoulos to re-sign his team’s most consistent and recognizable player. Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, and Atlanta-area native Dansby Swanson (an infant when the Braves last won a title) have already joined the chorus of fans demanding a speedy deal, calling on club management to “re-sign Freddie” during their speeches at Truist Park following the team’s championship parade.
Even if the Braves do wrap up a deal to keep Freeman in Atlanta into his elder years, Anthopoulos’ offseason business is unlikely to be done. Three of the four outfielders the club acquired in July (Joc Pederson, NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario, and World Series MVP Jorge Soler) are also free agents, and the fourth (Adam Duvall) is arbitration-eligible after turning down his half of a $7MM mutual option. With Ozuna’s future in Atlanta uncertain, Ronald Acuña Jr. still recovering from a major knee injury, and top prospect Cristian Pache a major question mark with the bat, the reigning champ’s outfield situation remains up in the air. They may also wish to add a veteran starter to a mix that includes Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton, and a stable of promising-but-unproven arms (including Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, and Touki Toussaint) with mixed records in the big leagues.
Braves Sign Manny Pina
The Braves announced Monday that they’ve signed veteran catcher Manny Pina to a two-year contract worth $8MM. (Atlanta is one of the few organizations that publicly discloses financial terms.) Pina will earn $3.5MM in 2022 and $4.5MM in 2023. The contract also has a $4MM club option for the 2024 season, which does not come with a buyout. Pina is a client of Rep 1 Baseball.
It’s at least a moderate surprise to see Atlanta ink another catcher. The Braves already extended veteran Travis d’Arnaud on a two-year, $16MM contract late in the season, giving them a veteran option to provide a bridge to up-and-coming prospects William Contreras and Shea Langeliers. With Pina now on board, both Contreras and Langeliers have veteran roadblocks in their way on the big league roster.
Langeliers, who has just five games of Triple-A ball under his belt, likely wouldn’t have been an option until late in the 2022 season at the very earliest anyhow, but Contreras has already gotten his feet wet in the Major Leagues and seemed to be a candidate to break camp with the team behind d’Arnaud next year. The addition of Pina, on a two-year deal no less, makes that alignment unlikely anytime in the near future — unless the Braves opt to carry three catchers on the roster (which seems possible with the likely addition of a designated hitter in the National League). The added organizational depth, however, protects the Braves in the event of another injury to d’Arnaud and also frees the front office to at least be more open to trade scenarios involving their young backstops this winter.
In Pina, Atlanta is adding a well-regarded defensive catcher who has some pop in his bat but struggled to hit for average this past season, albeit due to a fluky low .162 average on balls in play. The 34-year-old Pina (35 next June) hit .189/.293/.439 with a career-high 13 home runs in 208 plate appearances this past season. Since establishing himself as the backup catcher with the Brewers back in 2016, he’s given Milwaukee 1209 plate appearances of .245/.314/.415 offense.
With the glove, Pina has been credited with a whopping 38 Defensive Runs Saved through just 2407 innings over the six-year run with the Brew Crew. He consistently draws plus framing marks and boasts a massive 35% caught-stealing rate, which is well north of the league average of 28% over the course of his MLB career.
Pina’s $3.5MM salary next season brings the Braves to $80.5MM in guaranteed contracts to seven players, plus a projected slate of $49.9MM in arbitration salaries, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Of course, that number doesn’t include franchise icon Freddie Freeman, who has been extended an $18.4MM qualifying offer he’s sure to reject. Freeman is a free agent for the first time in his illustrious career, but the Braves figure to make a strong push to retain him even after he fields interest from other clubs around the league.
This past season’s $131.4MM Opening Day payroll was a franchise record, but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has already indicated that ownership will increase that figure for the 2022 season.
Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.
Julio Lugo Passes Away
Former major league infielder Julio Lugo has passed away after suffering what is believed to be a heart attack, his family tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN. He was 45 years old.
Lugo played in twelve major league seasons, suiting up for the Astros, Devil Rays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Orioles and Braves between 2000-11. He was the primary shortstop on the Red Sox’s 2007 World Series-winning team, part of a seven-year run as a regular at the position.
Lugo appeared in 120+ games in six of seven seasons between 2001-07 before transitioning into a utility role later in his career. Altogether, the slick-fielding infielder appeared in 1352 MLB games, hitting .269/.333/.384 with 80 home runs over 5338 plate appearances.
MLBTR sends our condolences to Lugo’s family, friends, teammates and loved ones.
Details On Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves
“You couldn’t find a soul who believes [Freddie] Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes about the general consensus around the GM Meetings this week. Despite this widespread expectation that Freeman and the Braves will eventually work out a new contract, that certainty can’t be at a full 100 percent, considering that the two sides weren’t able to agree to an extension before Freeman reached free agency.
Nightengale also provides some numbers in regards to the negotiations, as Freeman and his representatives are looking for a deal in the range of six years and $200MM. That is a sizeable bump over one Atlanta offer that Freeman has already turned down, with the Braves offering $135MM over a five-year pact. Details weren’t provided on when exactly this five-year/$135MM offer was floated, whether it was a recent offer on the Braves’ part or if it came earlier in the year. Reports from back in September already indicated that some type of “gap” existed between the two sides in contract talks, and a $65MM difference would certainly qualify.
Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM extension with the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season has long been cited as a potential comp for a new Freeman contract, since both deals involved star first baseman entering their age-32 seasons, and both players are even represented by the same agency (Excel Sports Management). This comparison point clearly stood out for the Braves, considering their offer to Freeman was only slightly above the Goldschmidt deal.
However, a case could certainly be made that Freeman is worth more than just a $5MM bump, for starters due to the simple fact that the Goldschmidt extension is over two years’ old. Freeman also has a longer track record as an Atlanta icon (whereas the Cardinals had just acquired Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks a few months’ prior) and Freeman just won the NL MVP Award in the abbreviated 2020 season. If the Braves’ offer came very recently, it seems like even more of an undervalue, considering Freeman had another big year in 2021 and then an enormous performance in the playoffs to help the Braves win the World Series.
Beyond just the dollar figure, the sixth year stands out as a potential sticking point. Committing over $32MM in average annual value to a first base-only player into his age-37 season carries its share of risk, especially for a Braves team that operates within a fairly limited payroll. Roster Resource estimates that Atlanta finished the 2021 season with $145MM in payroll expenditures, which would represent the highest number since Liberty Media bought the franchise in 2007.
Alex Anthopoulos has already said that the team will raise payroll coming off their World Series triumph, and the president of baseball operations made a point of mentioning the mutual interest between both the Braves and Freeman in continuing their relationship: “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay. He wants to stay.” Looking at Atlanta’s current payroll, however, the Braves already have over $141MM committed for 2022. Even factoring in some or most of Marcell Ozuna’s $16MM salary being reduced by suspension, Liberty Media would have to go way beyond their historical comfort zone ccommodate something in the range of a $30MM salary for Freeman, not to mention any other additions the Braves would need to fill any other roster holes.
Freeman ranked third on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and while our prediction didn’t quite hit the $200MM threshold, Freeman is projected for a six-year, $180MM contract. Freeman has proven to be enough of an elite talent that such a deal is likely to be out there for him somewhere on the open market, so the Braves may now face a bidding war to keep their longtime star in the fold.
Sean Kazmar Jr. Retires
Former major league infielder Sean Kazmar Jr. is retiring from professional baseball, according to an announcement from the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett. The 37-year-old appeared in seventeen minor league seasons, the last eight of which came in the Atlanta system.
Kazmar was the prototypical organizational veteran, remarkably going more than a decade in between big league appearances. He broke into the majors in August 2008, not long after his 24th birthday. He made nineteen appearances with the Padres down the stretch that season, then spent the entire 2009-19 campaigns in Triple-A. Kazmar first joined the Braves’ organization in 2013 and played with Gwinnett exclusively through 2019, not appearing in 2020 because of the canceled minor league season.
That perseverance eventually paid off, as Kazmar made it back to the big leagues this past season. The Braves selected his contract in mid-April, although his second and final major league stint proved brief. Kazmar got into three games, making two plate appearances, before being outrighted off the 40-man roster. He spent the final few months of the season back with the Stripers.
Kazmar’s major league career consists of just 48 plate appearances, in which time he managed eight hits and five walks. Merely playing at the professional level for seventeen seasons is itself quite the accomplishment, though. And Kazmar’s return to the majors — however brief — was one of the better stories of the first few months of the season, no doubt made sweeter by the team’s eventual World Series win.
Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
In their fourth consecutive season at the top of the National League East, the Braves finally put away their postseason demons to win the World Series. If it weren’t for the ring, however, this would be the most uncertain offseason the Braves have faced in some time. This year’s team had the lowest winning percentage of any of their four East title squads, and it’s hard not to suggest that these Braves benefited from a weak division in 2021. They capitalized, they partied, and they paraded, but now it’s time to pack up the balloons and streamers and look ahead to some difficult offseason decisions.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Charlie Morton, SP: $20MM in 2022 (includes $20MM club option for 2023 with no buyout)
- Marcell Ozuna OF: $53MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2025)
- Will Smith, RP: $14MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2023)
- Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $93MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on $17MM club option for 2027, team also holds a $17MM option for 2028)
- Travis d’Arnaud, C: $16MM through 2023 (includes $8MM club option for 2024 with no buyout)
- Ozzie Albies, 2B: $26MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on $7MM club option in 2026, team also holds $7MM club option for 2027)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Dansby Swanson, SS: $10.1MM
- Adam Duvall, OF: $9.1MM
- Max Fried, SP: $7.1MM
- Austin Riley, 3B: $4.3MM
- Luke Jackson, RP: $3.8MM
- Richard Rodriguez, RP: $3.1MM
- Orlando Arcia, IF/OF: $2.1MM
- Guillermo Heredia, OF: $1.6MM
- Mike Soroka, SP: $2.8MM
- Johan Camargo, IF/OF: $1.4MM
- A.J. Minter, RP: $2.1MM
- Tyler Matzek, RP: $1.5MM
- Sean Newcomb, RP: $900K
- Non-tender candidates: Duvall, Arcia, Heredia, Camargo, Newcomb
Option Decisions
- Joc Pederson, OF: $10MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $2.5MM buyout)
- Adam Duvall, OF: $7MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $3MM buyout, remains arbitration-eligible)
- Josh Tomlin, RP: $1.25MM team option for 2022 (declined for a $250K buyout)
Free Agents
- Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, Jesse Chavez, Chris Martin, Drew Smyly, Ehire Adrianza, Stephen Vogt, Tanner Roark, Terrance Gore, Grant Dayton
The Braves are the champions of the 2021 Major League Baseball season. Bully for you, Atlanta. Given that fact, their offseason outlook is pretty good. Frankly, whatever happens over the next six months won’t really matter to the Braves. They’re the champs, and that’s the ultimate winter gavel drop.
The one thing that could slow the effervescent feel-goodery of their championship run is the pending contract negotiation with longtime face-of-the-franchise Freddie Freeman. If by some odd twist of fate Freeman does not sign a long-term deal to stay with the Braves, that’s when the lights turn on, the music stops, and everyone goes home.
The 2022 season is already shaping up to be a weird one: the Giants will be without Buster Posey, the Nationals will probably be without Ryan Zimmerman, Bryzzo no longer exists except in the memory of Cubs’ fans, a fanbase other than Houston is likely going to embrace Carlos Correa, and the agreement between the owners and Players’ Union that defines the conditions of the 2022 season…well…there is no agreement. Point being, there’s only so much change a sport can take in a single winter, so let’s assume for the sake of sanity that Freeman will remain with the only organization he has ever known. If north ends up being south and pigs fly, we can cross that bridge then.
After all, from a baseball perspective, there’s little reason not to bring back Freeman. He’s one year removed from an MVP season and coming off a .300/.393/.503 campaign, in which he led the NL with 120 runs. He’s been one of the most consistent players in baseball, both from a character and production standpoint. He’s posted 4.0 rWAR or better in each of the last six seasons (except for 2020, when he put up 3.2 rWAR in 60 games). He’s been the heartbeat of the club for years, and he shows no signs of slowing down.
Yes, he plays first base, and that means he’s not a particularly versatile asset. His next contract will take him into his late thirties, and it’s going to be costly. But so long as they have Acuna and Albies locked into ridiculously team-friendly deals, and so long as their largest contract belongs to Charlie Morton on a minimal-risk, short-term contract, these Braves should have the money to overpay a little to keep “new Chipper” in his locker spot.
From a narrative perspective, the engines stalled during the postseason while Joe Buck and John Smoltz repeatedly tried to breathe life into the story of Soler, Rosario, Duvall, and Pederson being brought to Atlanta at the deadline. For sure, give President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos all the credit he deserves. He absolutely raised the floor for what had been an under-performing Atlanta team, and he hit pay dirt when each of the four showed up huge in the postseason. It’s pretty remarkable, in fact, that each of those four guys was able to make a distinct imprint on this postseason.
And yet, there’s a world in which none of them return to Atlanta for 2022. Soler and Rosario were the NLCS and World Series MVPs, respectively, but they are both straight-up free agents – free to sign wherever they please. For both of those guys, they could be in for an extended stay at reception unless the Braves want to honor their contribution with a hero’s offer.
On the other hand, it’s easy to see either one of these guys returning to Atlanta. When guys become postseason starts like Rosario and Soler, they instantly become more valuable to their incumbent franchise than they are anywhere else. For the players, they certainly should have positive associations from their time in Atlanta, and their popularity meters will be less sensitive in Atlanta than with a fresh fanbase. And yet, Soler and Rosario are corner outfielders at best, and most teams may want to see what happens with the CBA before signing a potential designated hitter.
While Soler and Rosario are the decorated heroes of this outfield foursome, Pederson and Duvall have been the active pair thus far. Pederson declined his $10MM mutual option, choosing instead to take a $2.5MM buyout and head to free agency. The move makes sense for both sides, as Pederson will want to find a situation with more guaranteed playing time. Coming off a 94 wRC+ season that saw him post just 0.6 fWAR between the Cubs and Braves, the Braves weren’t likely to exercise their half of the option if the decision had made it that far.
The Duvall decision is a touch more complex. Their postseason centerfielder declined his half of a $7MM mutual option, pocketing the $3MM buyout. But he remains under team control through arbitration. Duvall has been a 109 wRC+ hitter over the past three seasons, mostly with Atlanta, and he’s coming off probably his best year, posting 2.4 fWAR between the Marlins and Braves. Besides, unlocking at least a passing ability to play centerfield makes Duvall all the more valuable. He’s a flawed player because of subpar on-base skills, but he can also carry a team when he’s hot. Still, the Braves have designated him for assignment in the past when the financials were similar, and if they learned anything this past season, it’s that outfielders can be had at the deadline for cheap. If they keep him, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a salary in the $9.1MM range.
Not to mention, the Braves outfield quandary goes deeper than those four. With Acuna coming back, they’re already overcrowded (even if Acuna isn’t ready by opening day). Plus, with Marcell Ozuna’s contract hanging over this team, there’s a lot more uncertainty heading into next season. As of now, there’s no telling if Ozuna will play again or if the Braves would have any recourse to getting out of his contract, should they want to.
They also have heralded prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to work into the equation. Pache already has a Major League glove, and he should have a roster spot on the 2022 Braves. Even if he’s not strictly an everyday regular, if he’s on the roster, he’s likely to get a lot of the playing time.
The shape and depth of the Braves ’22 outfield is unclear, but the truth is, it’s a largely cosmetic problem. There are plenty of options available to Anthopoulos, and it’s more a question of sentimentality and narrative than it is efficacy. The bones of a solid outfield are already there, especially if they choose to bring back Duvall, and even if none of Soler, Duvall, Rosario and Pederson return, there ought to be plenty of low-cost alternatives available to bring aboard.
The rest of the offense is fairly well set. Swanson has one more year of arbitration at short, Albies is locked in long-term at second, Riley established himself at the hot corner, and d’Arnaud signed a two-year extension to return as the starting backstop. One wayward thought: given the shortstops that are available this winter, the Braves could be bold and look now for a long-term replacement for Swanson at short, but that’s probably a little too cute for Anthopoulos. Swanson is Georgia born, he has great hair, solid memes, and the former number one overall pick has been a steady if unspectacular presence on both sides of the ball. Entering his age-28 season, there may yet be a career year lurking as well.
Behind those starters, William Contreras shows promise and can serve as the backup behind the plate. If they want to give him more regular playing time in Triple-A, Chadwick Tromp was picked up from the Giants and 24-year-old Shea Langeliers isn’t far from elbowing his way into the room. If retained, Johan Camargo and Orlando Arcia can backup most spots around the diamond, though either one could be a non-tender candidate given their light outputs at the dish. Travis Demeritte was added to the 40-man roster to compete for a backup role as well. There’s a spot to fill on the bench, but it largely depends on whether or not they retain any of the “trade deadline four.”
For the rest of the roster, they’re actually in a much better place than you might assume for a team coming off its fourth consecutive division title. Because despite their longstanding success, there’s definitely an up-and-coming quality to this roster, especially on the pitching side. Morton, Ian Anderson, and Max Fried make for a stellar top of the rotation, and there’s some serious upside to untap if Mike Soroka can return healthy and either Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Kyle Muller, or Touki Toussaint can establish themselves in the bigs. Of course, we’ve been saying this of Atlanta’s rotation for years. They’ve also managed to keep it together for years.
They may look to add another Drew Smyly type, a back-end rotation piece who gave them 126 2/3 innings of 4.48 ERA/5.11 FIP baseball during the regular season. Those innings are no joke, and Atlanta will have to fill them again next year. Smyly was little better than replacement level, so they should have no trouble replacing him.
The bullpen remains mostly intact as well, with the southpaw triumvirate of Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter returning. Richard Rodriguez, Luke Jackson, and Jacob Webb make up a solid trio of righties as well. There’s certainly room for an addition here or there, but it’s more likely the Braves will tinker around the edges of the roster
All in all, it’s likely to be a relatively quiet winter for the champs outside of a potential Freeman extension. With arbitration projections, their projected payroll is right around the $140MM mark they carried in 2021. Of course, that’s without a new contract for Freeman, but winning the World Series ought to help make the extra room in the payroll to keep the player who waited the longest in Atlanta to win.
