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Royals Sign Jordan Lyles

By Anthony Franco | December 28, 2022 at 9:00am CDT

Dec. 28: The Royals have officially announced their deal with Lyles.

Dec. 20: Lyles has a two-year, $17MM deal with the Royals, tweets Feinsand. The agreement also contains performance bonuses and is still pending the completion of a physical, tweets Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner.

Dec. 19: The Royals are nearing agreement on a contract with free agent starter Jordan Lyles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). It’s likely to be a two-year contract for the Ballengee Group client, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Assuming the deal eventually pushes across the finish line, it’ll be the eighth MLB organization for Lyles. The former first-rounder and top prospect has moved around the league in journeyman fashion, securing numerous opportunities on the strength of his durability and a strong clubhouse reputation. Lyles has made 28-plus starts in each of the past three full seasons, entirely avoiding the injured list since June 2019.

The right-hander doesn’t post especially eye-opening numbers on a rate basis. He’s pitched parts of 12 seasons in the majors and never managed an ERA below 4.00, allowing more than five earned runs per nine innings in eight years. Some of that is attributable to difficult environments, as he’s spent multiple seasons calling hitter-friendly venues like Coors Field and Globe Life Field home. Yet he also consistently runs lower than average strikeout rates, and the significant number of balls in play has helped lead to a 5.10 ERA through more than 1300 career innings.

To his credit, Lyles is coming off one of the better seasons of his career. Signed to a $7MM guarantee by Baltimore last offseason, he ably filled the role of ’innings-eating veteran’ on an otherwise young pitching staff. Lyles took the ball all 32 times for the O’s, ranking 29th in the majors with 179 innings pitched. He threw strikes and posted a reasonable 4.42 ERA in arguably the game’s most hitter-friendly division. Lyles walked just 6.7% of batters faced this year, nearly a percentage point lower than the league average and his lowest rate since his 2011 rookie season.

The 32-year-old wasn’t overpowering. He averaged 91.8 MPH on his fastball while posting lower than average strikeout and swinging strike marks (18.6% and 9.3%, respectively). He was hit hard to a .278/.347/.500 clip by left-handed hitters, while he held same-handed opponents to a more manageable .275/.318/.418 line. Fielding independent metrics like FIP (4.40) and SIERA (4.36) generally pegged his production right in line with his actual run prevention mark.

Lyles performed as well as the Orioles could’ve reasonably anticipated at the time they signed him, logging plenty of serviceable but slightly below-average innings. Nevertheless, Baltimore paid him a $1MM buyout in lieu of an $11MM option at the start of the offseason. They reallocated the $10MM to fellow veteran Kyle Gibson, who inked a one-year free agent deal after a season and a half in Philadelphia. Dan Connolly of the Athletic wrote this evening that Baltimore had cursory conversations with Lyles about a potential reunion — presumably at a lower price point — but talks never advanced beyond the initial stages.

Instead, Lyles looks as if he’ll head to Kansas City to play the same role he did in Baltimore. The Royals have a young pitching staff that’s light on certainty. Brady Singer looks to have at least emerged as a mid-rotation starter after posting a 3.23 ERA across 153 1/3 innings. He’s the only of the Royals’ stable of talented young arms to do so thus far, as players like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic and Carlos Hernández haven’t found much consistency.

Adding some veteran stability to the mix seemed to be a priority for general manager J.J. Picollo and his front office. They’ve targeted the lower tiers of the free agent rotation market to that end. Last week, Kansas City inked southpaw Ryan Yarbrough to a $3MM guarantee. It seems they’ll follow with Lyles, bringing in two experienced arms to raise the unit’s floor. Singer, Lyles and Yarbrough seem as if they’ll take spots in the season-opening rotation, while players like Lynch, Bubic, Hernández and Brad Keller may jostle for roles at the back end.

Financial terms under discussion aren’t yet clear, though Lyles doesn’t figure to break the bank. Roster Resource projects K.C. for a player payroll around $79MM, a fair bit shy of last year’s season-opening mark in the $94MM range. The Royals could further clear some spending room by contemplating trades of arbitration-eligible players like Keller, Scott Barlow or Adalberto Mondesi or a deal involving center fielder Michael A. Taylor, who’s guaranteed $4.5MM in the second season of a two-year extension.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Kansas City Royals Newsstand Transactions Jordan Lyles

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Fred Valentine Passes Away

By Anthony Franco | December 27, 2022 at 7:34pm CDT

Former major league outfielder Fred Valentine has passed away, the Nationals announced. He was 87 years old.

Valentine, a Mississippi native, attended Tennessee State University. He entered the professional ranks in 1956 as a member of the Orioles organization. Three years later, he made his MLB debut with 12 games for Baltimore. The switch-hitter spent a few more seasons in Triple-A before briefly returning to the big leagues in 1963.

Following the ’63 campaign, the O’s sold his contract to the Washington Senators. Valentine played his first couple years in a part-time role with Washington before a breakout showing in 1966. That season saw him swipe 22 bases, collect 16 home runs and put together a .276/.351/.455 line across 578 trips to the plate. Valentine picked up some down-ballot MVP support during what proved to be a career-best showing. He hit .234/.330/.346 the following season, roughly average output during a year in which the league hit .242/.306/.357.

Midway through the ’68 season, Washington dealt Valentine back to the Orioles for pitcher Bruce Howard. Valentine wrapped up his MLB career with 84 games between the two clubs that year. He spent the 1969 season back in Triple-A before finishing his playing career with a year for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan.

All told, Valentine appeared in parts of seven MLB campaigns. He hit .247/.330/.373 through 533 games, connecting on 36 home runs while stealing 47 bases. Valentine drove in 138 runs and scored 180 times. After his playing career wrapped up, he helped found the MLB Players Alumni Association in 1982.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Valentine’s family, friends, loved ones, former teammates and those who knew him from his time with the MLBPAA.

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Obituaries

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Reds Sign Austin Romine, Alan Busenitz To Minor League Deals

By Anthony Franco | December 27, 2022 at 4:05pm CDT

The Reds announced this afternoon they’ve brought in catcher Austin Romine and reliever Alan Busenitz on minor league contracts. Both players will be in major league camp as non-roster invitees.

Romine, 34, returns to Cincinnati, where he spent the stretch run in 2022. Acquired in a deadline day trade with the Cardinals, the veteran played out the year in a depth role. He suited up 37 times for the Reds, hitting .147/.173/.263 across 99 trips to the plate. Cincinnati was one of three teams for Romine in 2022, as he also spent brief time with the Angels and St. Louis.

Between the trio of teams, the righty-hitting backstop posted a .155/.187/.248 line through 136 plate appearances. That was his most robust MLB workload since 2019, though he’s now appeared in the majors in 11 of the past 12 seasons overall. A longtime backup with the Yankees, Romine has played for five clubs since reaching free agency in advance of the 2020 season. He’s a .230/.268/.348 hitter in over 1400 career plate appearances.

Romine brings plenty of experience and some familiarity with the pitching staff to Reds camp. Cincinnati has already signed Curt Casali and Luke Maile to MLB deals this winter, bringing in a pair of depth options behind highly-regarded young backstop Tyler Stephenson. Barring injury, it’s hard to envision Romine cracking the Opening Day roster. He’s likely to start the season at Triple-A Louisville and remain on hand if the organization needs to call upon a veteran depth option.

Busenitz, 32, came out of the Twins bullpen 51 times between 2017-18. He worked to a 4.58 ERA through 57 innings. After the second campaign, Minnesota granted him his release to sign with the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

The right-hander has spent the past four seasons in Japan, where he carved out a career as a solid late-game option. Busenitz pitched to a 2.83 ERA through 155 2/3 NPB innings. His 18.8% strikeout percentage was fairly modest, though his 8.6% walk rate is manageable. The Kennesaw State product returns stateside on the heels of a 2022 campaign that saw him toss 31 2/3 frames of 2.27 ERA ball with a 20% strikeout rate at Japan’s top level.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Alan Busenitz Austin Romine

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Latest On Mets, Carlos Correa

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2022 at 10:56pm CDT

The status of the Mets’ agreement with Carlos Correa is the predominant story in MLB at the moment. Reports over the weekend emerged that New York had taken issue with something related to Correa’s right leg/ankle during his physical. There’s remained optimism the sides will be able to get a deal done, although it presented another twist in an unexpected saga for one of the offseason’s top free agents.

The Mets had jumped in to agree to terms with Correa on a 12-year, $315MM contract — pending the physical — within a day of the Giants pulling out of a 13-year, $350MM pact after their doctors reportedly took issue with something in the All-Star’s right leg. Correa underwent his physical with the Mets last Thursday; reports emerged Saturday afternoon that examination hadn’t gone completely smoothly.

With the holiday weekend, discussions between the Mets and Correa’s camp have apparently been somewhat on the back burner for the past couple days. Last night, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote that some other teams had touched base with the player’s representatives after word of the physical concerns trickled out. However, Heyman indicated Correa remained focused on the Mets as of last night, with dialogue between his camp and the New York organization more productive than it had been with San Francisco in the hours after the Giants expressed concern about Correa’s physical during their examination.

The Post’s Mike Puma provides additional context this evening, reporting that three-plus rival teams have been in touch with the Boras Corporation about Correa after the Mets expressed trepidation. Puma writes the 28-year-old would strongly prefer to join the Mets than go back into free agency after a second agreement fell apart but suggests Correa’s camp is not open to moving off the sides’ initial 12-year, $315MM price point.

Puma suggests it’s still likelier than not that Correa and the Mets work something out, with one source pegging the odds of him landing in Queens around 55%. Nevertheless, Correa’s reported unwillingness to alter the basic framework of the deal could prove a stumbling block depending on the extent of the Mets’ trepidation. Puma writes there’s some consideration being given to the possibility of including a provision that’d protect the Mets in the event Correa’s right leg proves problematic during the contract term.

That kind of provision is rare but not completely without precedent. As an example, fellow Boras Corporation client J.D. Martinez altered his deal with the Red Sox over the 2018-19 offseason after the team flagged a foot issue during his physical. The sides moved forward with their agreed-upon five-year, $110MM framework but included stipulations that would’ve allowed the Red Sox to opt out of the final two years of the contract in the event Martinez suffered another foot injury that resulted in a lengthy injured list stint (as reported by Evan Drellich, then of NBC Sports Boston). Martinez never suffered a serious injury and wound up playing out the five-year deal before hitting free agency again this winter.

Correa has never had an MLB injured list stint related to his right leg, which he fractured as a prospect back in 2014. The injury required surgery and ended his minor league season. He returned at the start of the following year and hasn’t missed any notable time because of the issue since then, though doctors for both the Giants and Mets have now identified something that gives them pause.

There figures to be more clarity on the matter over the coming days. It’s likely to remain the sport’s top story until the sides either finalize the deal or Correa’s camp decides to pivot back to free agency. Various reports continue to suggest the former outcome is probable, though far from certain.

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New York Mets Carlos Correa

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MLBTR Poll: Nathan Eovaldi’s Landing Spot

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2022 at 8:15pm CDT

Aside from Carlos Correa, whose agreed-upon deal with the Mets is on hold as his camp and the team try to sort out renewed concerns regarding the shortstop’s physical, Nathan Eovaldi is the highest-ranked player from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents who has yet to put pen to paper. He’s also the only unsigned player who’d turned down a qualifying offer.

A few teams have been tied to the former All-Star starter. Last week, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported the Padres, Angels and an unnamed American League East club were in the mix. It doesn’t seem that team is the incumbent Red Sox, as Bradford has suggested on a few occasions this offseason Boston doesn’t appear especially motivated to retain the right-hander.

The Padres have already made a couple rotation moves, re-signing Nick Martinez and adding Seth Lugo on a two-year pact. They’re presently slated for the final two spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. There’s still a fair bit of downside in that group, with neither Martinez nor Lugo having much recent track record as an MLB starting pitcher. Both Martinez and Lugo have the chance to opt out of their deals after the 2023 season (albeit only if the Padres first decline a two-year, $32MM club option in Martinez’s case). Darvish and Snell are each ticketed for free agency after next year, leaving Musgrove potentially as the only long-term rotation building block. Headed into his age-33 season, Eovaldi’s not likely to receive a significantly long investment, but he figures to command multiple years and could help solidify the post-2023 rotation in San Diego.

Anaheim already has a solid front five. Shohei Ohtani is the ace, while Tyler Anderson was brought in on a three-year free agent deal to add to the middle of the staff. Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez and Reid Detmers round out the group, with all three young southpaws having pitched well down the stretch in 2022. The Angels have frequently relied upon a six-man staff in the Ohtani era, though. Even if they’re planning to go with a five-man group to maximize Ohtani’s workload next year, there’s merit to bringing in another stable arm who can add some injury insurance.

Aside from San Diego and Anaheim, reports of known suitors for Eovaldi have been few and far between. The Yankees and Blue Jays were linked to him earlier in the winter, but those clubs have since signed Carlos Rodón and Chris Bassitt, respectively. New York now seems likely to be out on Eovaldi entirely, with Rodón joining Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas in the starting five. Toronto could fit for a rotation pickup on paper given the uncertainty associated with José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi/Mitch White at the back end. Yet they’re already projected for a franchise-record payroll, and general manager Ross Atkins told reporters over the weekend he believes the team’s “hefty lifting is done.”

If one assumes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays aren’t the unnamed AL East team involved in Eovaldi’s market, that’d leave the Rays and Orioles. Baltimore is the better fit, with Tampa Bay having inked Zach Eflin to a $40MM deal to bolster an already quality rotation. Baltimore entered the offseason seeking starting pitching. Thus far, they’ve swapped in Kyle Gibson for Jordan Lyles in the veteran innings eater role but haven’t made the kind of mid-rotation or better addition most had anticipated. Baltimore has some rotation options — i.e. Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez — but it’s a group light on MLB experience.

A few other teams make some sense as speculative possibilities, albeit as imperfect fits. The Rangers have added four starters already this winter, though they could at least consider another arm to push both Jake Odorizzi and Dane Dunning into depth roles. The Twins have ample payroll space amidst a quiet winter. Rotation help isn’t a need per se, but adding Eovaldi would help guard against some of the injury question marks with the in-house staff. The White Sox may not have any additional spending room after their five-year commitment to Andrew Benintendi. If they do have some money to play with, though, another starter would fit on the roster. The Dodgers could look to fortify their rotation with Walker Buehler missing most or all of next season. There’s room on paper for Eovaldi but they’d have to exceed the luxury tax threshold, which they don’t seem eager to do, in order to add him.

Where does the MLBTR readership anticipate Eovaldi winding up?

(poll link for app users)

Which Team Will Sign Nathan Eovaldi?
Red Sox 13.88% (2,749 votes)
Angels 11.30% (2,238 votes)
Orioles 11.12% (2,203 votes)
Padres 10.77% (2,133 votes)
Cardinals 5.76% (1,141 votes)
Rangers 5.16% (1,022 votes)
Blue Jays 4.80% (951 votes)
Twins 3.71% (734 votes)
Cubs 3.66% (725 votes)
Giants 3.56% (706 votes)
Yankees 3.50% (694 votes)
Dodgers 3.13% (619 votes)
Phillies 2.71% (537 votes)
Braves 2.16% (428 votes)
Mets 1.89% (374 votes)
White Sox 1.44% (286 votes)
Astros 1.39% (276 votes)
Pirates 1.23% (244 votes)
Mariners 1.15% (228 votes)
Rays 1.08% (213 votes)
Tigers 0.95% (188 votes)
Brewers 0.92% (183 votes)
A's 0.81% (160 votes)
Guardians 0.80% (159 votes)
Reds 0.69% (136 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.64% (127 votes)
Royals 0.60% (118 votes)
Nationals 0.50% (100 votes)
Rockies 0.38% (75 votes)
Marlins 0.30% (60 votes)
Total Votes: 19,807

 

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MLBTR Polls Nathan Eovaldi

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Braves Sign Jackson Stephens To Major League Contract

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2022 at 6:43pm CDT

The Braves announced this evening they’ve signed reliever Jackson Stephens to a one-year contract. It’s a split deal that pays him at varied rates depending on whether he’s in the majors or minors. Stephens secures a 40-man roster spot, bringing Atlanta’s roster to capacity. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter link) the 28-year-old will be paid at a $740K rate for any time spent in the majors.

Stephens is coming off a solid season in the middle innings for Atlanta. He was called upon by skipper Brian Snitker for 39 appearances out of the bullpen. Stephens tallied a career-high 53 2/3 innings while posting a personal-low 3.69 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he generated grounders at a solid 46.3% clip. Stephens averaged 94.1 MPH on his fastball and generated high-end spin but middling velocity on his 76.8 MPH curveball.

That marked the Alabama native’s first MLB action in four years. He’d previously pitched with the 2017-18 Reds. He spent 2019 in Triple-A, didn’t pitch with the cancelation of the minor league season the following year, then spent 2021 in Mexico. Stephens returned to affiliated ball on a minor league deal with Atlanta during the lockout. He cracked the MLB roster a week into the season and spent the rest of the season in the majors.

After acquiring Dennis Santana from the Rangers in mid-November, Atlanta designated Stephens for assignment. That was just days before the deadline for clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible or pre-arbitration players. The Braves kept him in DFA limbo and non-tendered him, sending him directly into free agency without first needing to clear waivers. A month later, the front office circled back to bring Stephens back to the organization.

Stephens is out of minor league option years, meaning the Braves can’t send him to the minors so long as he’s on the 40-man roster. That they nevertheless agreed upon a split deal may indicate Atlanta plans to place him on outright waivers in the coming weeks. That’d be the only way to get him back to Triple-A Gwinnett, where his lower base salary would come into play, although it’d require him going unclaimed on waivers.

While the idea of signing a player to an MLB contract to subsequently run him through outright waivers might seem counterintuitive, it’s not unheard of. The minor league salary involved could come at a higher rate than is typical for a player who signs a straightforward minor league contract. That could serve as an incentive for the player to accept a minor league assignment if he clears waivers. Earlier in the offseason, the Orioles signed a pair of players — Anthony Bemboom and Jake Cave — to split deals shortly before trying to run them through waivers. The gambit was successful in Bemboom’s case, as he agreed to stick around at Triple-A upon going unclaimed, but didn’t pan out with Cave, whom the Phillies claimed.

That’s a speculative scenario at this point, to be clear. Stephens will take a spot on the 40-man roster for now. If he still holds that job come Spring Training, he’ll battle for a middle innings role at Truist Park for a second straight year. Atlanta has Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez, Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, Dylan Lee and Santana locked into Opening Day bullpen roles, though Stephens could battle with the likes of Nick Anderson, Seth Elledge and Michael Tonkin for lower-leverage innings.

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Atlanta Braves Transactions Jackson Stephens

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Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2022 at 4:45pm CDT

The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each
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2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Alex Colome Alex Young Andrew Chafin Aroldis Chapman Brad Hand Bryan Shaw Caleb Smith Chasen Shreve Craig Stammen Daniel Norris Darren O'Day David Phelps Garrett Richards Hirokazu Sawamura Hunter Strickland Jackson Stephens Jacob Barnes Joe Smith Luis Perdomo Luke Weaver Matt Moore Matt Wisler Michael Fulmer Noe Ramirez Ralph Garza Ross Detwiler Steve Cishek T.J. McFarland Will Smith Wily Peralta

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Cubs Sign Drew Smyly To Two-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 24, 2022 at 9:01am CDT

Dec 24: The Cubs have officially announced the signing of Smyly. To make room on the 40-man roster, pitcher Erich Uelmen has been designated for assignment, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Dec 22, 8:01pm: The deal also allows Smyly to opt out at the end of next season, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Smyly will have to weigh a return trip to free agency against the $11MM remaining on the contract next offseason.

7:52pm: The Cubs are bringing back Drew Smyly, agreeing with the free agent starter on a two-year deal. It’s reportedly a $19MM guarantee for the Frontline client. Smyly will make successive salaries of $8MM and $8.5MM, and the contract contains at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.

Smyly returns after spending the 2022 season in Chicago. It was technically his second stint as a Cub, as he’d previously been a member of the organization in 2018. He spent that entire season rehabbing from a previous Tommy John surgery, though, and the Cubs dealt him to the Rangers over the 2018-19 offseason. After three years elsewhere, he returned to Chicago last winter on a $5.25MM guarantee.

The left-hander had a decent showing in 2022, working to a 3.47 ERA through 22 starts. He lost a month in the middle of the year to a left oblique strain but otherwise stayed healthy and absorbed 106 1/3 innings. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents but only walked 5.8% of batters faced. Smyly held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and induced swinging strikes on a solid 12.4% of his offerings. That quality per-pitch swinging strike rate could portend a future uptick in strikeouts. Smyly has punched out 23.2% of opponents over the course of his career, although he’s seen his lowest marks in the last two years.

Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this past season, though. He absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line with two homers allowed through 101 plate appearances. Righties gave him some more trouble, taking him deep 14 times and posting a .258/.301/.448 mark in 346 trips to the dish.

The 33-year-old has had some injury troubles throughout his career, including the aforementioned Tommy John procedure. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. Smyly is not a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.

That solid rate production clearly appeals to president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. Smyly finished the 2022 season strong and earned a multi-year deal as a result, with the guarantee narrowly topping the $17MM contract Jordan Lyles received from the Royals this week. The starting pitching market generally has been quite strong, and Smyly continues that trend with a $9.5MM average annual value to slot at the back of the Chicago rotation.

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal earlier in the offseason. He’ll join Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and presumably Smyly as locks for the season-opening starting staff. Kyle Hendricks figures to have a rotation job whenever he’s healthy, although his status is somewhat up in the air after his 2022 season was cut short by a shoulder issue. Players like Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and Adrian Sampson could be in the mix throughout the season as depth options. Thompson held his own over 17 starts this past season, while Wesneski and Kilian are among the better pitching prospects in the Chicago organization.

Tacking on Smyly’s $8MM salary to the 2023 payroll ledger brings the team’s projected payroll around $179MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re now around $107MM in guarantees for the ’24 campaign. Chicago isn’t quite back to the $200MM+ range they reached towards the end of the last decade, but they’re notably past the $140MM – 150MM range of the last two seasons. The deal adds $9.5MM to the club’s luxury tax ledger in both 2023-24; they’re now up to approximately $213MM in CBT spending for next season, $20MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Cubs and Smyly were closing in on a deal. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Cubs and Smyly had agreed to a two-year, $19MM contract and specified the financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Chicago Cubs Newsstand Transactions Drew Smyly Erich Uelmen

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Dodgers Sign Adam Kolarek, James Jones To Minor League Deals

By Anthony Franco | December 23, 2022 at 10:20pm CDT

The Dodgers brought back left-hander Adam Kolarek on a minor league contract earlier this month, as noted by Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. Los Angeles has also added southpaw James Jones on a non-roster pact.

Kolarek spent parts of the 2019-20 campaigns in L.A. Acquired from the Rays at the 2019 trade deadline, he’d spend the next year and a half with the Dodgers. The sidewinder was a quietly excellent bullpen piece, posting a 0.88 ERA through 30 2/3 innings. There’s some amount of good luck in any ERA that low, of course, but he held opponents to a .182/.222/.255 line as a situational matchup nightmare for left-handed hitters.

After the 2020 campaign, the Dodgers dealt Kolarek to Oakland as part of a four-player swap. That didn’t pan out as Oakland had hoped, with the Maryland product struggling over parts of two seasons. He allowed a 5.74 ERA in 26 2/3 innings in green and gold, with opponents teeing off at a .313/.403/.455 clip. After posting a 4.58 ERA through 15 outings this past season, he was designated for assignment in late June.

Kolarek finished the year with Oakland’s top affiliate in Las Vegas upon clearing waivers. He allowed a 6.10 ERA across 41 1/3 innings with the Aviators, a disappointing mark even after accounting for the extreme hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. The 33-year-old continued to induce grounders at an elite clip, though, and he held left-handed batters to a .234/.311/.319 line in Triple-A. The Dodgers will take a low-risk flier to see if he can recapture some of his previous success and eventually reclaim a situational role in the relief corps.

Jones may be better known for his time as an outfielder with the Mariners from 2014-15. An elite runner, he didn’t hit well enough to hold an MLB spot despite stealing 27 bases in 108 games as a rookie. After a rough season in Triple-A in 2016, Jones converted to pitching. He spent a few years pitching in the Rangers farm system, the last couple mostly at Triple-A.

Now 34, Jones continues to work in hopes of getting back to the majors. He has not yet cracked the highest level as a pitcher, thanks largely to scattershot command. The Brooklyn native struck out an above-average 28.8% of the batters he faced through 16 Triple-A appearances this year, but that came with an untenable 19.7% walk rate. The Dodgers were nevertheless intrigued enough by his raw arsenal to give him another minor league opportunity.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Adam Kolarek James Jones

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Outrights: Carrillo, Gilbert

By Anthony Franco | December 23, 2022 at 9:33pm CDT

A couple players recently designated for assignment have gone unclaimed on waivers:

  • The Nationals announced they’ve assigned righty Gerardo Carrillo outright to Triple-A Rochester. He was designated for assignment earlier in the week when the club finalized their one-year contract with Erasmo Ramírez. Carrillo, 24, still has yet to reach the majors. Added to the Dodgers 40-man roster during the 2020-21 offseason, he was pitching in Double-A when sent to Washington as part of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster. The righty was regarded as a potential high-leverage reliever at the time, but his production stalled in 2022. He spent the first half of the season on the injured list before splitting the year between High-A Wilmington and Double-A Harrisburg. The native of Mexico allowed 13 runs through 10 1/3 innings at the latter stop. Carrillo has never previously been outrighted, so he’ll remain in the Washington organization and try to reclaim a 40-man roster spot next season.
  • Diamondbacks left-hander Tyler Gilbert went through outright waivers after being designated for assignment last week, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. A longtime minor leaguer, Gilbert reached the bigs late in the 2021 campaign. He made three relief appearances before being tabbed for his first start in mid-August. Gilbert went on to no-hit the Padres in that outing, an out-of-nowhere performance that etched his name in the history books. The former sixth-round draftee didn’t find much consistency thereafter, however. He’s allowed a 4.96 ERA across 61 2/3 MLB frames since that no-hitter and lost the final few months of the 2022 season to an elbow sprain. Gilbert has never previously been outrighted and doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse the assignment, so he’ll stick in the system at Triple-A Reno.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Transactions Washington Nationals Gerardo Carrillo Tyler Gilbert

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