The Least Valuable Sluggers Of 2019
With a couple weeks left in the regular season, 108 players have already hit at least 20 home runs, and several more figure to join the group before the year’s out. We all know it’s a homer-happy game these days, but even if you’re capable of launching the ball over the fence on a consistent basis, that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a valuable player. Seventeen of the sport’s 20-HR hitters have posted 1.0 fWAR or worse so far this year, setting them up to end the season as below-average players by that metric. Say what you will about fWAR, but it’s generally able to pinpoint who is and isn’t particularly useful to his team’s cause. With that said, let’s take a look at this year’s least valuable sluggers as the campaign nears its end…
Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins (HRs: 28; fWAR: 1.0)
- While Rosario has seldom been a big on-base threat since his career started in 2015, this year’s .299 OBP is the second-worst mark of his career and has helped tamp down his value. Despite a .276 average and a .491 slugging percentage, Rosario has managed a so-so 101 wRC+ to this point. Thanks to that and below-average defense (minus-4 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR), Rosario’s smack dab between average and replacement level this season.
Jay Bruce, OF, Phillies (HRs: 25; fWAR: 1.0)
- In fairness to Bruce, injuries have limited him to just 314 plate appearance this year, making his home run amount all the more impressive. Still, between Seattle and Philly, Bruce has put up another unspectacular season in a growing line of them. He’s a .227/.274/.543 hitter with a 106 wRC+, though the long-panned outfielder has accounted for 2 DRS and a 0.8 UZR in the corners.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Indians (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.8)
- The 28-year-old Puig has stumbled through one of the worst seasons of his career, which obviously isn’t what he had in mind for a platform campaign. The pending free agent and longtime Dodger has slashed a middling .255/.315/.455 over 555 trips to the plate between the Reds and Indians. Puig’s still a good outfielder (4 DRS, 0.4 UZR), but above-average offense has been his calling card for most of his time in the bigs. His decline in output at the plate this season has likely cost him a solid amount of money.
Franmil Reyes, OF, Indians (HRs: 34; fWAR: 0.8)
- The 24-year-old Reyes joined the Indians last month in the same trade as Puig, but the results haven’t been stellar in either case. Although Reyes has a shot at 40 homers, his .250/.313/.516 line (109 wRC+) isn’t great, especially for a DH. Reyes still has another two years left before he hits arbitration, though, so it’s doubtful the Indians will grow tired of him in the immediate future.
Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.8)
- Jimenez hasn’t made the type of star-caliber impact the White Sox may have wanted immediately from the hyped 22-year-old, but most players his age are still in the minors. A league-average batting line (101 wRC+; .249/.297/.473 in 437 PA) with 25 dingers isn’t anything to scoff at for a rookie. But it’s up in the air whether Jimenez will evolve into a viable outfielder. He has accounted for minus-11 DRS with a minus-4.6 UZR thus far.
Ryan McMahon, INF, Rockies (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.7)
- As with Jimenez, the fact that McMahon’s not off to a dazzling start doesn’t mean he won’t morph into an indispensable long-term piece for Colorado. The 24-year-old McMahon has fared respectably at three positions, mostly second base, while slashing .258/.338/.455 (91 wRC+) in his first full season in the league.
Renato Nunez, DH/1B, Orioles (HRs: 29; fWAR: 0.7)
- Let’s say this for Nunez: He’s much more successful than the vast majority of waiver pickups. Nunez has at least turned into a passable hitter since the Orioles claimed him off the scrapheap from the Rangers in May 2018. However, for a DH, more is needed than the .251/.314/.471 showing (102 wRC+) that Nunez has given the rebuilding Orioles in 547 plate appearances this season. The O’s are in the process of trying to find long-term building blocks, and the 25-year-old Nunez hasn’t really established himself as one yet, homers aside.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.5)
- Hernandez’s aggregate production has been far from excellent this season, but the 26-year-old has trended upward since a horrid stretch from April through June. Overall, Hernandez – who’s trying to prove to the Blue Jays he’s a long-term cog – has batted .215/.292/.436 with an 89 wRC+ and subpar defense (minus-5 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR). Offensively, if the powerful Hernandez is ever going to be a significant asset, he’ll have to slash his strikeouts. He has fanned in 33-plus percent of PA this season, continuing a K-happy career that began in 2016.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Twins (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.4)
- The Rays non-tendered Cron last offseason after a 30-homer campaign, and early this year, he looked like one of the best buy-low pickups of the winter. Cron stormed out of the gates after joining the Twins for $4.8MM, but he has slowed down considerably since then. Cron has only batted .254/.315/.478 (104 wRC+) in 470 PA, which could again make him a non-tender candidate during the upcoming winter as he gears up for his final trip through arbitration.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.3)
- The five-year, $52MM extension the Blue Jays handed Grichuk before the season isn’t looking like a particularly shrewd investment at the moment. Never known for getting on base, the .281 OBP the 25-year-old has put up thus far is the lowest he has ever recorded over a full season. In all, Grichuk’s just a .230/.281/.437 hitter, giving him a woeful 85 wRC+. It hasn’t been a case of bad luck, according to Statcast, which credits Grichuk with a .296 expected weighted on-base average that falls shy of his real wOBA (.305).
Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.3)
- With three Jays on this list, maybe it’s no surprise the rebuilding club’s among the majors’ worst teams. Unlike Grichuk, though, Smoak is something of a Statcast darling. The soon-to-be free agent’s .212/.349/.406 line and 104 wRC+ through 464 PA aren’t anything special for a first baseman, but his .372 xwOBA (compared to a .332 wOBA) is one of the highest in the sport.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.2)
- The Padres’ decision to hand Hosmer an eight-year, $144MM guarantee before the 2018 season continues to look rather questionable. The former Royal logged weak production a year ago, and though Hosmer has improved this season, the results aren’t nearly good enough for the money he’s making or the offense-driven position he plays. The grounder-hitting Hosmer’s .280/.327/.443 line in 603 PA has amounted to a 95 wRC+. He has given the Padres 0.0 fWAR over 1,280 PA since signing his franchise-record contract.
Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.2)
- Santana’s offensive output has tanked in the second half, though ongoing elbow problems have surely contributed to his late-season decline. The Mariners will hope Santana will look more like the player who registered a 127 wRC+ in the first half of 2019, not the one who has limped to a dismal 36 wRC+ since, when next season rolls around. Regardless, Santana’s defense may continue to be a major concern. With minus-15 DRS and a minus-16.0 UZR, he has been one of the worst outfielders in the game this year.
Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.1)
- Although this is the third season with at least 20 homers for the 25-year-old Odor, the Rangers are understandably growing frustrated with his inconsistency. Odor has alternated between valuable and valueless since he came on the scene in 2014. Unfortunately for Texas, Odor has been closer to the latter this season. He has gone down on strikes a personal-worst 30.4 percent of the time en route to an ugly line of .203/.283/.421 (73 wRC+) in 517 trips to the plate.
Matt Adams, 1B, Nationals (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.0)
- The 31-year-old Adams has only managed a .226/.277/.476 line with a wRC+ of 86, thanks in part to a career-high strikeout percentage (34.3). The lefty-hitting Adams has continued to struggle against same-handed pitchers in the process, making it look all the more likely the Nationals will buy him out for $1MM in lieu of exercising a $4MM option after the season.
Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, Angels (HRs: 22; fWAR: minus-0.1)
- Pujols hit the 655th homer of his career Monday, leaving him just five shy of tying the legendary Willie Mays for fifth on the all-time list. Needless to say, the 39-year-old Pujols is one of the greatest players who has ever lived. That said, his years-long decline has continued in 2019 – the eighth season of a 10-year, $240MM contract that hasn’t gone to the Angels’ liking. Pujols, with his .251/.311/.448 line and inability to contribute as a defender or base runner, is on track for a second straight season of below-replacement-level production.
Khris Davis, DH, Athletics (HRs: 20; fWAR: minus-1.1)
- This has been a disastrous season for the man known as Khrush, whom the low-budget Athletics awarded a two-year, $33.5MM extension before the campaign. Davis was coming off his third straight season of 40-plus home runs (and fourth consecutive campaign with a .247 average) at that point. But injuries have helped limit Davis to a horrid .220/.287/.383 line with a 78 wRC+ through 474 PA in 2019. That’s obviously not going to cut it for someone whose bat determines whether he’s valuable.
MLBTR Poll: Time For Changes In Pittsburgh?
Tuesday brought the latest ignominious development of 2019 for Pittsburgh, a team that has gone from playoff hopeful to laughingstock in the span of a couple months. The Pirates announced that reliever Kyle Crick underwent season-ending surgery for an injury to his right index finger, which came as a result of a fight with teammate and fellow late-game hurler Felipe Vazquez. While it’s unclear how the fight began or who was truly at fault, it doesn’t really matter – the bottom line is that it’s no way for a pair of teammates to act toward one another.
Unfortunately for the Pirates, the Crick-Vazquez dust-up wasn’t the first instance of in-fighting for the club this year. There have been multiple examples in which members of the organization haven’t been able to coexist. Crick, Vazquez and fellow reliever Keone Kela have been among the sources of conflict. Vazquez and Kela each drew interest leading up to the July 31 deadline, but general manager Neal Huntington didn’t move either (more understandable in the case of Vazquez than Kela, as the former’s an elite closer).
Speaking of Huntington, the roster he has built is well on its way to a fourth straight season without a playoff berth. The Pirates were in the NL wild-card race when the second half of the season commenced, even though they were an unimpressive 43-46 at the time. They’ve gone an abysmal 20-36 since then and now own a 63-82 record that’s good for the eighth-worst mark in baseball. That’s not all Huntington’s fault – it would help if owner Bob Nutting would actually spend some money – but he and-or manager Clint Hurdle could nonetheless be in danger of losing their jobs in the wake of what has turned into an awful season.
While Huntington and Hurdle helped the Pirates to three straight playoff berths from 2013-15, the partnership’s on its way to its third sub-.500 season out of four since then. Between the lack of on-field results in recent years and the behind-the-scenes issues the Pirates have endured this season, perhaps Nutting will decide to move on from one or both of the Huntington-Hurdle tandem when the campaign concludes. Huntington has been in place since 2007, and Hurdle has been at the helm dating back to 2011, but it could be time for a regime change in Pittsburgh. What do you think?
(Poll link for app users)
What should the Pirates do?
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Fire both 71% (4,959)
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Fire Huntington 12% (860)
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Fire Hurdle 9% (605)
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Keep both 8% (559)
Total votes: 6,983
Latest On Alex Cora, Red Sox Front Office
With former president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski now out of the organization, the Red Sox are on the hunt for a new front office chief. Dombrowski’s successor won’t have the right to choose a manager, though, as Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy confirmed Tuesday on WEEI’s “Ordway, Merloni and Fauria” that Alex Cora will return in 2020, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays.
It was already surprising enough that Boston fired Dombrowski on Sunday just under a year after winning its latest World Series title. And although Dombrowski hired Cora, it perhaps would have been even more stunning had the club moved on from the latter. The well-respected Cora has helped the Red Sox to a record of 184-122, including a 76-69 mark this season, during almost two years at the helm of their dugout. The club won’t return to the playoffs this year, though, which is surely among the reasons it ousted Dombrowski.
Kennedy on Tuesday wasn’t wiling to delve into why the Red Sox moved on from Dombrowski, however (per Cotillo). Rather, he complimented Dombrowski on his performance with the organization, saying, “We won a world championship, a couple division championships. On a personal level, I enjoyed working with him.” But Kennedy did add, “Obviously, you don’t make a change unless you’re ready for new leadership in that specific department.”
Unsurprisingly, there were issues behind the scenes, as Evan Drellich of The Athletic and Buster Olney of ESPN detail (subscriptions required). Dombrowski sought a contract extension multiple times in the wake of the team’s championship season, but its higher-ups wouldn’t oblige, according to Drellich. Ultimately, it doesn’t seem as if the Red Sox believed the aggressive Dombrowski was capable of putting them on a path toward sustained success. Dombrowski’s former bosses even wondered whether he was the right person for the job late during the 2018 regular season, when the Red Sox were on their way to a 108-win campaign, Olney reports.
Thanks to Dombrowski’s exit, the Red Sox are currently operating with a group consisting of a few of his former underlings – Eddie Romero, Zack Scott, Brian O’Halloran and Raquel Ferreira – atop their baseball department. It’s possible they’ll end up replacing Dombrowski from outside, though, with Olney naming Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen as a speculative successor. Hazen’s a Boston native who worked for the Red Sox for 11 years before joining the Diamondbacks, who have been generally successful since he began running the ship in October 2016.
While it’s easy to see the appeal of a Hazen-Boston reunion on paper, the Diamondbacks aren’t concerned they’ll lose him, as CEO Derrick Hall told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic via text message: “I have no reason to think they are going to ask. He is under contract.”
Hazen seems to have another two years left on his deal, though it’s unclear whether the D-backs have added more seasons to the pact, Piecoro notes. Regardless, because he’s under contract, Arizona would be able to stop Hazen from speaking to the Red Sox should they express interest in him.
AL Injury Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Jays, Tigers
Let’s check in on a few notable injury situations from the American League…
- Astros reliever Ryan Pressly is closing in on a return, manager A.J. Hinch revealed Tuesday (Twitter links via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). The first-place club has been without Pressly, likely its premier reliever, since he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Aug. 22. Expectations then were that Pressly would miss four to six weeks, so it looks as if he’ll come back at the low end of that timeline (if not sooner). In further welcome news for the Astros, shortstop Carlos Correa could join Triple-A Round Rock for a rehab game Friday. The star went down at roughly the same time as Pressly because of a back ailment, though it now appears the two will get back with time to spare before the playoffs as Houston goes for its second championship since 2017.
- Red Sox left-hander David Price is “feeling better, little by little,” as he works back from a wrist injury, manager Alex Cora said Tuesday (via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Although the Red Sox’s playoff hopes are dashed, Price still plans to pitch again this season. After that, though, he may need to undergo a minor surgery to repair the issue, Hewitt reports. Price’s wrist has been a problem since last month, having limited him to two appearances and a combined 4 2/3 innings since the end of July.
- The Blue Jays are likely to activate reliever Elvis Luciano from the injured list Wednesday or Thursday, Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests. Luciano, whom the Jays took in last winter’s Rule 5 Draft, would then have enough time to meet the required 90 days on their active roster. If that happens, it’s likely he’ll begin next season at the Double-A level, Mitchell notes. This has been a trying season in the bigs for Luciano, who has been out since the first half of June with a sprained right elbow. Before that, he posted an unappealing 7.16 ERA with more walks (23) than strikeouts (22) in 27 2/3 innings. Of course, considering the 19-year-old Luciano is the youngest player in the majors and hadn’t even pitched above rookie ball before this season, it’s no surprise he has experienced adversity in his first MLB go-around.
- Tigers utilityman Niko Goodrum is reportedly unlikely to return this season, though he hasn’t given up on a potential late-season comeback, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets. Goodrum hasn’t played in nearly three weeks thanks to an adductor strain, which has taken away a much-needed bright spot for the struggling Tigers. The uber-versatile 27-year-old has slashed .248/.322/.421 with 12 home runs, a dozen steals and 1.9 fWAR across 472 plate appearances.
Pirates’ Kyle Crick Injured In Fight With Felipe Vazquez
WEDNESDAY: Crick told Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and other reporters that Vazquez threw the first punch. Vazquez didn’t comment, per Wilborn, who adds that the closer had “noticeable swelling and bandages” on his nose.
TUESDAY: Pirates relievers Felipe Vazquez and Kyle Crick engaged in a clubhouse fight Monday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports. Crick came out of it requiring season-ending tendon surgery in his right index finger, the team announced. The club also fined him and Vazquez.
“The behavior exhibited by these two players last night is unacceptable, inconsistent with the standards expected of a Major League player and will not be tolerated by the organization,” general manager Neal Huntington stated (via Nightengale).
This isn’t the first hint of behind-the-scenes tension in what has degenerated into an awful season for the Pirates. Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic reported in mid-August that in-fighting had been all too common for the club this year. Yet another reliever, Keone Kela, has been a prominent source of tension for Pittsburgh – which has plummeted out of the NL playoff race as the season has gone on and now owns a horrid 63-81 record.
As with Kela, Crick has also been involved in multiple dust-ups this season with members of his own organization. He previously feuded with bullpen coach Euclides Rojas over the alleged preferential treatment the latter gave Vazquez. Now, thanks to his apparent disdain for Vazquez, Crick won’t pitch again until 2020. Whether he’ll take the mound again as a Pirate is unclear, as the club could attempt to move him if it doesn’t believe he and Vazquez (a potential trade chip in his own right) can coexist. While Vazquez is among the best relievers in baseball, Crick struggled to a 4.96 ERA/5.95 FIP and walked upward of six batters per nine across 49 innings in 2019.
It also may be fair to wonder whether the friction in the Pirates’ clubhouse, not to mention their uninspired on-field performance, will have negative ramifications for Huntington and-or manager Clint Hurdle. The franchise was plenty successful under the pair a few years back, evidenced by its postseason berths from 2013-15, but has fallen from grace since that three-year stretch. The bickering Pirates are now on their way to a fourth straight season without a playoff appearance.
Giants Could Hire General Manager
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi continues reshaping the team’s front office in his image. The Zaidi-led club fired eight of its 20 pro scouts Tuesday, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle details. More changes are likely, per Schulman, and it’s possible the Giants will add a general manager to their baseball department. Zaidi on Tuesday said he’s likely to interview candidates for a GM opening, though he’s not guaranteed to fill the position, according to Maria Guardado of MLB.com
Whether or not Zaidi does find someone for the job, the team’s baseball operations will essentially continue to go through him. He’s in his first year at the helm, having taken the reins last November after the Giants stripped Bobby Evans of GM duties and moved executive VP Brian Sabean into a different role.
Zaidi, of course, joined the Giants after several years serving as a prominent member of other teams’ front offices. He was the right-hand man for longtime Athletics executive Billy Beane before serving as the GM under Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman. It’s now possible Zaidi will go with a similar setup for the Giants, who do happen to have a notable ex-GM on hand in senior advisor J.P. Ricciardi. Zaidi hired Ricciardi, who was once Toronto’s GM, shortly after taking over in San Francisco. However, it’s unknown whether Ricciardi will be among those Zaidi interviews for the GM post.
NL Injury Notes: Kimbrel, Verdugo, Renfroe, Taijuan
Injured Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel is progressing toward a return, but that won’t come until at least the weekend, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports. The big-money in-season signing has been on the injured list with right elbow inflammation since Sept. 1, making him eligible to come back as early as Thursday. Kimbrel’s IL placement came on the heels of yet another disappointing performance, in which he yielded three earned runs on two hits (including a homer) in two-thirds of an inning. He’s one of the greatest closers ever, which is why the Cubs guaranteed him $43MM over three years, yet Kimbrel hasn’t resembled his dominant self this season. While the 31-year-old has converted 13 of 15 save opportunities, he owns a bloated 5.68 ERA with 12.32 K/9 against 5.21 BB/9, and has given up just under three HRs per nine across 19 innings of work.
- The Dodgers clinched their seventh straight NL West title Tuesday, but they’re also dealing with some unwelcome news: Outfielder Alex Verdugo isn’t nearing a return, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. An oblique strain forced the rookie to the IL back on Aug. 6, but he suffered a back injury on a rehab assignment and will sit out “for at least a few days,” Castillo writes. Verdugo has been a valuable contributor this year, having slashed .294/.342/.475 with 2.2 fWAR in 377 plate appearances, but the loaded Dodgers have carried on fine without him thus far.
- Padres manager Andy Green isn’t willing to guarantee that banged up outfielder Hunter Renfroe will play again this season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. For now, Renfroe’s going to rest on account of right elbow and ankle problems. “Hunter has battled through a lot this second half,” said Green, who added, “There have been a number of days he was unavailable and we’ve managed not to talk about it.” We covered Renfroe’s significant second-half struggles earlier Tuesday, though it now seems possible health problems have been a major cause for his summer slump.
- Injuries have prevented Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker from taking a big league mound since April 2018, but he said Tuesday (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) he’s still hoping to make an appearance this year. The 27-year-old sat out the majority of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and has dealt with shoulder troubles this season. However, he threw his first bullpen session in four months Tuesday and came out unscathed. Walker’s absence is among the reasons the Diamondbacks’ starting staff has been shaky this year, though the club has nonetheless stayed in the National League wild-card race.
Hunter Renfroe’s Second-Half Decline
Just a couple months ago, Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe looked like a legitimate breakout player. As a result, the defensively adept slugger drew plenty of trade interest leading up to the deadline, though the Padres understandably elected against parting with him. This season has since become about looking forward for the out-of-contention Padres, who are reportedly set to count on Renfroe as one of their main outfielders again in 2020. There are clear reasons for that – including Renfroe’s 31 home runs, whopping 22 Defensive Runs Saved, and his three remaining seasons of team control – but they’ll need the 27-year-old to get off the schneid at the plate in 2020 to increase their chances of breaking a seemingly interminable playoff drought.
Although his HR total is prodigious, Renfroe has only been a middling offensive performer this year, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. His .222/.290/.498 line in 462 trips to the plate has led to an unspectacular 99 wRC+. Despite his defensive excellence, Renfroe’s so-so offense has limited him to 1.9 fWAR, essentially making him an average player. There’s value in that, especially on a cheap salary, though Renfroe looked as if he was destined for better not long ago. When the All-Star break rolled around in mid-July, Renfroe had already put up 2.4 fWAR with 27 homers and a 130 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances. Since then, however, he has dipped to a dismal .169/.260/.291 line with four HRs across 173 PA. Renfroe’s minus-0.5 fWAR during the second half of the season ties him for the fourth-worst mark in the game.
If you’re wondering what caused the destruction of Renfroe’s offensive numbers, it starts with a massive downturn in power – evidenced in part by the noticeable decrease in HRs. Renfroe boasted a ridiculous .361 ISO at the break, but the number has plummeted to a nonthreatening .122 during the second half of the season. A mammoth decline in impactful contact is an obvious cause. According to FanGraphs, Renfroe posted a hard-hit rate of 52.1 percent over the first couple months of the year. The figure has fallen to 33.7 since the All-Star Game, while Renfroe has made far less contact in general and seen his strikeout rate soar from 27.3 percent to an even 37.0.
Health may be factoring into Renfroe’s late-season issues, as manager Andy Green said Tuesday (via Dennis Lin of The Athletic) that his production has “suffered because of” a sore elbow and a problematic ankle. Likewise, it hasn’t helped Renfroe’s cause that pitchers have somewhat changed their approach when he has come to the plate, having thrown more sliders against him as the season has progressed, per FanGraphs. Renfroe’s especially vulnerable when dealing with breaking pitches, according to Statcast, which credits him with a .237 weighted on-base average/.219 expected wOBA against those offerings.
By Statcast’s standards, Renfroe’s overall output has been something of a mixed bag. He ranks in the league’s 66th percentile or better in exit velocity and Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric, but his other numbers aren’t as encouraging. For one, Renfroe’s expected batting average – .218 – dwells toward the bottom of the league (third percentile). And his xwOBA (.310; 27th percentile) also doesn’t offer much encouragement, suggesting he has actually been fortunate to hit for a real wOBA (.328) that’s more mediocre than spectacular.
In spite of his second-half woes, it’s evident San Diego views Renfroe as a player who could be part of the solution as it seeks a return to relevance. But if Renfroe’s really going to emerge as a high-end complement to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in 2020, the Padres will need the player who showed up during the first half of this season to reappear going forward. If healthy, perhaps he will.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss
As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.
This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.
So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…
Castro before July:
- Groundball percentage: 52.2
- Fly ball percentage: 30.9
- Line drive percentage: 16.7
- Pull percentage: 40.8
- Infield fly percentage: 10.7
- Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1
Castro since:
- Groundball percentage: 43.9
- Flyball percentage: 33.3
- Line drive percentage: 22.7
- Pull percentage: 49.5
- Infield fly percentage: 7.6
- Hard-hit percentage: 43.4
All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.
Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins, Marlins Complete Sergio Romo Trade
TODAY: Per Craig Mish of FNTSY Radio, the trade has been finalized with the Marlins sending cash considerations to the Twins. It had been previously reported that Minnesota would receive a player to be named later in addition to Romo and Vallimont.
JULY 27, 8:21pm: Both teams have announced the trade.
7:48pm: Righty Chris Vallimont is the minor league pitcher going to Minnesota, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. They’re also getting a player to be named later, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports.
7:33pm: Romo is indeed going to the Twins, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The Twins are also getting a minor league pitcher, Joel Sherman of the New York Post relays. The Marlins will acquire first base prospect Lewin Diaz, according to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press.
7:28pm: The Twins are “deep into talks” to acquire Marlins reliever Sergio Romo, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. A deal’s likely to be completed.
The 36-year-old Romo served his purpose for the rebuilding Marlins, who signed him for $2.5MM in free agency last winter with the intent of eventually trading him. A former Giant, Dodger and Ray, the three-time world champion continued his effectiveness in Miami, where he notched a 3.58 ERA/3.88 FIP with 7.88 K/9 against 3.11 BB/9 in 37 2/3 innings. Romo also converted 17 of 18 save attempts.
Romo’s velocity maxes out in the mid-80s, making him one of the game’s least imposing hurlers, and he only induces ground balls at a 36.4 percent clip. However, Romo has long shown a penchant for forcing a boatload of infield pop-ups, having done so 14 percent of the time this season, and generating a large amount of soft contact. Romo ranks near the top of the league in hard-hit rate and exit velocity against, according to Statcast, which credits him with an even better expected weighted on-base average against (.276) than the .282 wOBA hitters have mustered off him this year.
Based on his career production and the numbers he has totaled this season, Romo should be a welcome pickup for the Twins, who’ve been in the market for bullpen help for weeks. And his addition shouldn’t preclude them from finding more late-game aid in the coming days. The Twins’ bullpen entered play Saturday ranking better than average in K/BB ratio (ninth) and FIP (11th), but the unit’s closer to middle of the pack in ERA (14th). Moreover, the Twins have jettisoned a handful of notable relievers – Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker – since last week. Those four combined for just over 100 innings of work as part of Minnesota’s relief corps this season. Of their remaining arms, only closer Taylor Rogers and setup man Ryne Harper have recorded easily above-average numbers over a large sample of work.
In Diaz, 22, the Twins are parting with a player they originally signed out of the Dominican Republic for $1.4MM in 2013. Baseball America (subscription required) just ranked Diaz as the Twins’ 10th-best prospect earlier this month. BA lauds Diaz’s defensive ability at first, though it’s worth pointing out he has also excelled on the offensive side in 2019. After opening the season on a tear at the High-A level, Diaz advanced to Double-A for the first time and has since slashed .309/.348/.602 (165 wRC+) with six home runs in 135 plate appearances.
Also 22, Vallimont joined the Marlins as a fifth-round pick just last year. Back then, BA highlighted Vallimont’s fastball – which can hit 96 mph – and “wipeout slider.” More recently, the outlet rated as him as Miami’s 27th overall prospect. Vallimont has produced terrific results this year between the Single-A and High-A levels, where he has combined for a 3.16 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings.
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