West Notes: Dodgers, Yu, Rangers, Gomez, Giants
Before Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM contract Saturday, the Dodgers joined them with a willingness to offer six years, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). However, the value of Los Angeles’ proposal was worth less (closer to $100MM) and contingent on the team jettisoning money via trade, Heyman adds. Unsurprisingly, LA couldn’t find a taker for at least a portion of its worst contract – outfielder Matt Kemp‘s two years and $43.5MM – which helped lead to Darvish’s exit in free agency.
More from baseball’s West divisions:
- Rangers slugger Joey Gallo logged significant time at first base, third base and left field in 2017, a breakout year in which he offset a paltry .209 batting average with 41 home runs and an .870 OPS/123 wRC+ across 532 plate appearances. Now, with third baseman Adrian Beltre healthy and enough left field options on hand, the Rangers are planning on using Gallo at first full-time, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays. “When you are playing multiple positions, it does take a toll,” manager Jeff Banister said. “This will keep him fresh, allow him to settle in, to work on things and focus on the offensive side.”
- In a separate piece, Grant writes that he doesn’t expect the Rangers to re-sign free agent center fielder Carlos Gomez. The 32-year-old met with Rangers brass last month, but it seems they’re content to go with younger options – including fellow center Delino DeShields, 25. Gomez, who signed with Texas in late 2016 after a disastrous run with rival Houston, accrued 556 PAs as a Ranger over the previous two seasons, hitting a more-than-respectable .262/.345/.481 with 3.5 fWAR.
- The Giants’ Hunter Pence has taken his switch from right to left field in stride, which the team’s management appreciates, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The soon-to-be 35-year-old Pence has never played left during his 1,489-game career as an outfielder, but he’ll head there this year as a result of the Giants’ acquisition of Andrew McCutchen. Pence is embracing the move, which Shea notes was difficult for ex-Giant Angel Pagan when they had him shift from center to left two years ago. “I think it’s going to be a lot of fun to have a whole new perspective,” Pence said. “It’s kind of refreshing on the mind. It’s an exciting challenge that I anticipate.”
- Gorkys Hernandez, one of Pence’s outfield mates, underwent surgery on a broken hamate bone in his left hand after last season, broadcaster Marvin Benard revealed Saturday (Twitter link via Shea). Hernandez played with the injury for at least some of 2017, when he batted a meek .255/.327/.326 with no home runs and a .071 ISO over 348 PAs. The out-of-options 30-year-old will compete to retain his spot on the Giants this spring.
FA/Trade Rumblings: Yanks, Lynn, Odorizzi, O’s, D-backs, D. Santana
The Yankees, continuing to seek help for their rotation, have “monitored” free agent right-hander Lance Lynn‘s marketplace this offseason, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. However, a Lynn signing may be difficult for the Yankees because of their desire to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018. They have around $15MM to spend, Morosi notes, and Lynn’s next deal could pay him somewhere near that figure on an annual basis. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lynn would receive $14MM per year.
More from New York and a few other major league destinations:
- The Yankees have also shown offseason interest in Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi, as have the AL East rival Orioles, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Odorizzi would represent an affordable option for the Yankees, Orioles or any of the other teams known to be pursuing him, as the 27-year-old will earn a bit north of $6MM in 2018 – his second-last year of arbitration eligibility. Although, given that Odorizzi’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s debatable whether he’d be a good fit for either New York or Baltimore – both of which play their home games at home run-friendly venues.
- The Diamondbacks and Brewers discussed outfielder Domingo Santana earlier this offseason, but the teams couldn’t work out a deal, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Milwaukee was seeking starting pitching in return for Santana, per Cafardo, which you’d expect for a team that has been on the lookout for rotation help throughout the offseason. The D-backs, meanwhile, want another outfielder and have attempted to re-sign the top hitter available in free agency, J.D. Martinez, making their interest in Santana understandable. Santana won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter, so he’d obviously make far less of a dent in Arizona’s payroll than JDM.
- In addition to the previously reported Yanks, the Mets asked the Diamondbacks about utilityman Brandon Drury at some point this offseason, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Drury is still with the D-backs, though a deal could still come together before the season, Piecoro suggests. It probably won’t be with the Mets, though, considering they’ve signed third baseman Todd Frazier, outfielder Jay Bruce and infielder Jose Reyes in recent weeks.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Yu Darvish Deal
It took over three months, but the premier free agent in this year’s class finally came off the board Saturday. Right-hander Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM guarantee that includes an opt-out clause after 2019. As you’d expect, a bevy of media reactions to the agreement have come in over the course of the day. Here’s a look at several…
- When the offseason began in November, Darvish “wasn’t really” on Chicago’s radar, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports on Twitter. However, it seems the Cubs benefited from this winter’s slow-moving free-agent market in this case, as it helped lead to a lower-than-expected price tag for Darvish and a major splash for the North Siders. Darvish went into the winter seeking an accord along the lines of Stephen Strasburg‘s (seven years, $175MM) or new teammate Jon Lester‘s (six years, $155MM), Patrick Mooney of The Athletic details (subscription required).
- While there’s a well-known fondness between Darvish and the Rangers, with whom he has spent the majority of his career, Texas was “not even close” to landing him, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram hears. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News adds that Texas didn’t make an offer to Darvish, and the club wouldn’t even have been willing to guarantee him $75MM in total if it did. The Rangers have a glaring need for a front-end starter, but they’re not close enough to contention to splurge on one, Grant writes. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who has a good relationship with Darvish, spoke highly of the 31-year-old on Saturday. “I am very happy for Yu and hope he gets everything he wants,” Daniels said (via Wilson). “He will go down as one of the best pitchers in Rangers history. I expect he’s going to be very good wherever he goes.”
- The Dodgers, Darvish’s other ex-team, made him an offer, but it fell short of the Cubs’, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times report. Contrarily, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that LA was “said to have offered in the same ballpark” as Chicago. Although, signing Darvish would have made it difficult for the Dodgers to achieve their goal of staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018.
- Likewise, tax concerns stood in the way of a Yankees-Darvish union. New York never even made Darvish an offer, Rosenthal tweets.
- The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.
- The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
- In addition to the previously listed Twins and Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies are still targeting starters in the wake of the Darvish deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Philadelphia is aggressively pursuing a short-term addition, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas are all possibilities, Feinsand adds.
- Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) has mixed feelings on the Darvish pact. While it “appears to be a bargain salary,” Law has reservations about the length, contending that it’s one or two years too long, and he doesn’t regard Darvish “a pure ace.” Darvish has become too reliant on his cutter and not reliant enough on his slider, which has led to vulnerability against left-handed hitters, Law observes. However, Darvish may have “some untapped potential right now” if he leans more on his slider, per Law, who at least sees him as a significant near-term upgrade for the Cubs.
Marlins, Astros Discussing J.T. Realmuto
Count the reigning World Series champion Astros among the most serious suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. Houston and Miami have discussed the backstop, according to SiriusXM’s Craig Mish, who adds that the Marlins have requested high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker in return. The Astros haven’t ruled out dealing Tucker, Mish reports (Twitter link).
Realmuto would be the second major trade acquisition of the winter for the Astros, who previously dipped into their pool of young talent to pick up right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates. Despite that move, the Astros’ farm system remains in the majors’ top 10, according to Baseball America, which regards the 21-year-old Tucker as their second-best prospect and the majors’ 15th-ranked farmhand. MLB.com (No. 8) FanGraphs (No. 10), Baseball Prospectus (No. 20) and ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 21) also think highly of the lefty-swinging Tucker, who ascended to the Double-A level in 2017 and slashed .265/.325/.512 across 318 plate appearances.
Should the Marlins land Tucker, he’d become arguably the premier prospect in a system that has climbed from dead last to 19th in Baseball America’s rankings since the beginning of the offseason. Of course, the Marlins’ improved farm is the result of an aggressive major league teardown that has come during a payroll-slashing campaign by new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. The Marlins have already dealt star outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, not to mention second baseman Dee Gordon, leaving Realmuto as the face of a team that seems unlikely to contend in the near future.
The 26-year-old Realmuto, sensing Miami is more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth in 2018, has made it known he’d like to follow Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Gordon out the door. Given that he wants to play for a contender, going to Houston would surely satisfy Realmuto, and it would give the club a potential long-term solution behind the plate. While the Astros got solid production from catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis in 2017, the two 30-somethings could become free agents next winter. Moreover, Gattis will primarily occupy the DH spot this year, leaving the unproven, out-of-options Max Stassi as the Astros’ projected No. 2 catcher.
Unlike Stassi, Realmuto has done plenty to establish himself in the majors. He truly broke out in 2016 and has since accounted for 7.2 fWAR, trailing only the Giants’ Buster Posey and the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez in that category among catchers. Most of Realmuto’s value has come from his bat, as the righty-swinger combined for a quality .290/.337/.440 line across 1,124 plate appearances from 2016-17.
While there have been questions about Realmuto’s defense (his reviews as a pitch framer have been mixed), both his bat and long-term affordability combine to make him extremely valuable, which has led to offseason interest from contenders such as the Astros and Nationals. Realmuto is set to play his first of three potential arbitration-eligible seasons in 2018, during which he’ll make a relatively modest $2.9MM.
NL Notes: Moustakas, Rockies, Wright
Third baseman Mike Moustakas ranks among most prominent victims of this year’s abnormal offseason, having not landed a contract three months after hitting free agency as one of the top players available. It’s unlikely Moustakas’ next deal will come courtesy of the Cardinals, according to Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, even though they’ve been in on third basemen this offseason (trade targets Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson in specific). It appears the Cards will use Jedd Gyorko and Matt Carpenter at third, per Ortiz, who adds that the team has informed Carpenter he’ll fill a super-utility role. The Cards are the second potential landing spot for Moustakas that has been downplayed in the past few days; Mets GM Sandy Alderson suggested on Thursday that a match with Moustakas didn’t seem likely for a variety of reasons.
Some more notes from around the Senior Circuit…
- With the Rockies’ control over third baseman Nolan Arenado, center fielder Charlie Blackmon and second baseman DJ LeMahieu dwindling, it’s imperative infield prospects Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers and young outfielder Raimel Tapia pan out, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes. The Rockies have turned away trade interest in McMahon and Rodgers, Saunders reports, indicating they’re highly confident in the pair. McMahon is seemingly the more likely of the two to make an impact in 2018, as he could emerge as the Rockies’ starting first baseman. He’s also capable of playing third and second, both of which will open up soon if Arenado and LeMahieu depart within the next couple years. Rodgers is a shortstop, but with Trevor Story there, he might also be an option at the keystone. Regardless, the Rockies believe their young talent will help them withstand any potential losses in free agency. “Our job is to not worry about Charlie, Nolan or DJ. Our goal is churning out impactful, major-league players from year to year,” director of player development Zach Wilson told Saunders. “We think we have a chance to do that for a really long time.”
- The Mets will be able to place David Wright on the 60-day disabled list as soon as Feb. 14, notes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, which could be advantageous given the glut of free agents that remain unsigned and the number of players that’ll be jettisoned from 40-man rosters throughout the league as free agents (presumably) begin to sign at some point in the coming weeks. New York can’t and won’t simply release Wright, as doing so would cancel their insurance policy on the remaining $47MM of his contract (which reportedly covers 75 percent of his salary) and because Wright continues to strive for an improbable comeback. If Wright ultimately decides he’s no longer able to continue his career, the Mets and the insurance company could work out a settlement, but that doesn’t seem likely for the current season, it seems. Wright is owed $47MM through 2020 — $20MM in 2018, $15MM in 2019 and $12MM in 2020.
MLBTR Originals
Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:
- Unfortunately, the most popular topic in baseball throughout this offseason has been the lack of activity across the league. There are several factors that could explain why things have gone so slowly this winter, as Kyle Downing detailed. After laying those reasons out, Kyle asked readers to identify the main culprit. The belief among voters is that free agents’ asking prices are simply too high.
- With Alex Avila now a member of the Diamondbacks, Jonathan Lucroy is the only starting-caliber catcher remaining in free agency. In the wake of the Avila signing, Mark Polishuk examined potential destinations for Lucroy and then polled readers on a landing spot for the two-time All-Star. The Nationals have received the most votes to this point.
- After the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Matt Albers and Boone Logan, Kyle wondered whether they’re poised to build on their 86-win 2017 with a postseason trip this year. The majority of voters do expect the Brew Crew to be a playoff team.
- First baseman Logan Morrison is among many free agents still on the market late in the offseason. Any team that signs him could be adding a significant bat to its lineup for an affordable price, I argued.
Latest On Inactive Free-Agent Market
2:05pm: The union has issued a statement regarding a potential spring boycott, saying (via Rosenthal): “Recent press reports have erroneously suggested that the Players Association has threatened a ‘boycott’ of spring training. Those reports are false. No such threat has been made, nor has the union recommended such a course of action.”
1:35pm: Backing up an earlier report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Buster Olney of ESPN tweets that, as a result of the lack of activity in free agency, players discussed boycotting spring training during a conference call last week. However, “it is not currently an option under any serious consideration,” he hears.
Olney delves further into the players’ growing dissatisfaction in a piece suggesting 12 questions they should ask their leader, Tony Clark. The MLBPA executive director and a few agents have voiced their displeasure with the slow offseason this week, but other representatives only saw those as empty threats.
“Short-sighted,” one agent told Olney. “Impetuous,” said another.
Olney goes on to express skepticism that MLB teams are colluding against free agents, pointing out that several relievers and Lorenzo Cain have done quite well on the market. He also notes that big offers are on the table for Eric Hosmer and Yu Darvish. The players seem to think something sinister is at play on the owners’ part, thus leading to the talk of a spring boycott, but Olney relays that there are differing opinions. In fact, there are some players and agents who think holding out from camp “would lead to another disaster,” he writes.
Commissioner Rob Manfred himself addressed this year’s inactive market earlier this week, saying (via Jerry Crasnick of ESPN): “Every [free-agent] market is different. There’s different players, different quality of players, different GMs, different decisions, a new basic agreement, different agents who had particular prominence in a particular market in terms of who they represent. Those factors, and probably others that I can’t tick off the top of my head, have combined to produce a particular market this year. Just like there’s been some markets where the lid got blown off in terms of player salary growth, occasionally you’re going to have some that are not quite as robust.”
There are indeed several potential factors at play; one, according to Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins (via Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports), is that “teams are valuing players in a similar way.” Atkins added that “the aging curve has potentially been overcompensated in the past. That seems to be correcting a bit.”
Beyond that, Passan mentions that there are fewer teams than usual chasing free agents because as many as a dozen are either “tanking, not competing or crying poor.” The $197MM competitive balance tax threshold, which the union agreed to when it negotiated the current collective bargaining agreement a year ago, has also contributed to the players’ problems because it has helped prevent normally big-spending teams such as the Dodgers, Yankees and Giants from participating in free agency.
Still, top-tier free agents like Hosmer, Darvish and J.D. Martinez will eventually “get paid,” a league official told Passan. But that same official is unsure of the futures of mid- to lower-tier free agents, saying that “even if you took away the CBT changes, most of these guys wouldn’t have jobs,” in part because “there are a lot of smart GMs, and they aren’t gonna overpay guys.”
Unfortunately for the players, there’s concern that what’s happening this offseason may repeat itself on a bigger scale next year, when free agency could feature the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, among other household names. Overall, the 2018-19 class may be a bloated group of players if some of this winter’s stragglers are unable to find multiyear contracts, Passan observes. The premier players available should fare well, especially considering teams avoiding the CBT this year may not have the same motivation next winter, but “when 85 percent of the money goes to 15 percent of the players, 85 percent of the players are going to hear, ‘I don’t have the money,'” an agent told Passan.
Should what we’re seeing now emerge as a new trend for free agency, it could lead to an increase in team-friendly contract extensions for young players who are fearful of encountering low interest on the market, another agent suggested to Passan.
“That scares the [expletive] out of me,” the agent said. “One of my clients a few days ago said, ‘Why do I want to go to free agency if it’s going to be like this?’ We’re losing the messaging war.”
With the CBA set to run until December 2021, the present setup is in line to last for the next few years. That may be a bleak reality for the union, though there’s hope that the players will take this opportunity to band together on important issues and truly find out whether Clark is a capable leader.
A source on the players’ side declared to Passan that “the owners have to realize they’re about to jeopardize an unbelievably good thing. If they don’t recognize it, they don’t see where this is going. Everybody’s going to be in unison. And we’re all going to walk right off the cliff together.”
They won’t walk off a cliff to a spring boycott, however, as Passan tweets that an organized strike would lead to the league filing an injunction against them. The players would then have to return to work, and it’s also possible they’d have to pay damages. Union lawyers have warned them of those consequences, Passan adds.
AL Notes: Sox, Nunez, E. Jimenez, Orioles, Royals, Soler
Free agent utilityman Eduardo Nunez “hasn’t lost contact with the Red Sox,” Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. With Dustin Pedroia set to miss the early portion of the year as he recovers from knee surgery, re-signing Nunez would give Boston a clear Opening Day second baseman. However, Nunez would obviously lose playing time upon Pedroia’s return, and the Red Sox are also set at his other positions – third base, shortstop and the corner outfield. All of those factors, not to mention interest from other clubs, could prevent Nunez’s return to the Red Sox. The 30-year-old joined the Sox via trade with the Giants last summer and thrived, hitting a stellar .321/.353/.539 in 173 plate appearances.
Here’s more from the American League:
- As their search for starting pitchers continues, the Orioles remain interested in re-signing free agent right-hander Chris Tillman, while fellow righties Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are still too expensive, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Kubatko also adds a new name to the mix, 27-year-old righty Drew Hutchison, who’s on Baltimore’s radar. The Orioles are familiar with Hutchison from his run with AL East rival Toronto from 2012-16. Hutchison had his moments across 406 1/3 innings as a Blue Jay, with whom he pitched to a 4.92 ERA/4.23 FIP and posted 8.28 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9. However, he only threw 24 big league frames between Toronto and Pittsburgh in 2016, and he’s now coming off a year spent exclusively in the minors. With the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate last season, Hutchison logged a 3.56 ERA/4.13 FIP with 7.0 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 over 159 1/3 innings.
- When the Royals acquired outfielder Jorge Soler from the Cubs last year for closer Wade Davis, their hope was that the former top prospect would develop into a long-term building block. Soler, 25, still has a chance to do that, but Year 1 with the Royals saw him limp to a .144/.245/.258 showing in 110 PAs and, according to Maria Torres of the Kansas City Star, begin to believe that his major league career was over. Reflecting on 2017, most of which he spent in the minors, Soler told Torres: “I had an awful season. Things went fine in the minor leagues but not in the big leagues. Obviously there were things I was doing wrong. I needed to make adjustments. … I don’t know how it’ll translate to the field but in the cage there’s an incredible change. I’ve never felt this way.” Hoping to avoid a repeat this year, Soler has spent the offseason reshaping himself mentally and physically, having lost 20 pounds, and revamping his swing, as Torres details. Since October, Soler has been in Miami working with Dodgers international scout Mike Tosar, who helped Yonder Alonso break out last season. The results of their sessions have encouraged not only Soler and Tosar, but also members of Royals’ front office. General manager Dayton Moore suggested that Soler will be an everyday player for the Royals this year, adding that “the talent is there” and “we believe in him a great deal.”
- White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez, one of the game’s best prospects, has only racked up 73 PAs above the Single-A level. Nevertheless, there’s optimism the 21-year-old will make his major league debut in 2018, per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. Jimenez told Levine “he’s close to getting to the big leagues,” while GM Rick Hahn noted that “it is not going to shock me if over the summer Eloy forces our hand a bit.” Levine’s piece is worth checking out in full for more quotes on Jimenez from Hahn and White Sox hitting coach Todd Steverson.
Someone Should Take A Chance On Logan Morrison
Major League Baseball is roughly a week and a half away from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, yet over 100 players remain without contracts. Even most of the premier players in this year’s free agent class haven’t found contracts to their liking, so it’s no surprise that plenty of mid- to lower-tier veterans also remain unsigned. Among them is first baseman Logan Morrison, who, despite enjoying a career year with the Rays in 2017, has only drawn scant interest this winter. While MLBTR projected a three-year, $36MM payday for Morrison entering free agency, that may prove to be rather optimistic.
Not only does free agents’ earning power tend to drop as the spring gets closer, but Morrison has seen several teams address first base needs as he has continued to sit on the market. Any of the Phillies (Carlos Santana), Mariners (Ryon Healy), Red Sox (Mitch Moreland), Indians (Yonder Alonso) or Mets (Adrian Gonzalez, Jay Bruce) could have conceivably picked up Morrison this winter, but each has already acquired at least one established first baseman. Of those teams, the only potential suitor for Morrison could be the BoSox, who are still in the market for a slugger to man the designated hitter spot. However, they’ve been locked on the best offensive player available – J.D. Martinez – all winter. Perhaps Morrison will enter the picture for Boston if it doesn’t sign Martinez, but it would be a surprise at this point if JDM went elsewhere.
Regardless of whether it’s the Red Sox or someone else, Morrison seems quite capable of helping a team. Sure, the 30-year-old’s career has been unremarkable thus far (5.6 fWAR in 3,354 plate appearances with Miami, Seattle and Tampa Bay), but Morrison seems to have found another gear in recent years.
Since the second half of 2016, when he slashed .244/.352/.526 over an admittedly small number of plate appearances (91), Morrison has been one of baseball’s most formidable hitters. He proved himself on a much grander scale last year, parlaying a personal-best walk rate (13.5 percent, compared to a 10.5 percent lifetime mark) and a career-high fly ball rate (46.2 percent, up from 37.5 percent) into a .246/.353/.516 line in 601 PAs. That output led to a 3.3 fWAR and a robust 130 wRC+, which ranked 30th among big league regulars, while he finished tied for seventh in home runs (38) and 10th in isolated power (.270).
Morrison’s 2017 production seemingly wasn’t just smoke and mirrors. According to Statcast, he ranked 26th in barrels per PA and 32nd in balls hit at least 95 mph. Thanks in part to his hard-hitting ability, Morrison ended the year with a .365 expected weighted on-base average that fell right in line with his real wOBA (.363). That xwOBA number placed 26th in the majors, tying him with superstar Kris Bryant and another Windy City standout, Jose Abreu. Adding to the intrigue, Morrison’s success came despite playing half his season at one of the majors’ least friendly venues for left-handed batters, according to Baseball Prospectus. And while many lefty hitters tend to fare poorly against same-handed pitchers, that hasn’t really been the case with Morrison. He posted an above-average 109 wRC+ versus southpaws in 2017 and has compiled a playable mark (95) during his career.
All of the above suggests Morrison may quietly be one of the game’s top offensive threats nowadays, yet finding an obvious landing spot for him at this late juncture of the offseason is difficult. Given that their first basemen ranked second to last in the majors in fWAR (minus-0.3) last season, the Rockies may be the best match for Morrison, and transitioning from the cavernous Tropicana Field to the hitter’s paradise known as Coors Field would seemingly be a boon for him. However, at last check, Colorado hadn’t even considered Morrison. The club could instead turn the keys at first over to prospect Ryan McMahon and/or re-sign bargain free agent Mark Reynolds.
Meanwhile, other first base bottom feeders from 2017 – Seattle, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Boston, San Diego, New York (AL), Miami and Texas – have a.) upgraded there this offseason, b.) will continue to ride with their starters from last year or c.) are seemingly only going to spend a notable amount if it’s for much-hyped free agent Eric Hosmer (the Padres). Hosmer’s only MLB employer to date, Kansas City, could certainly use a first baseman if he does depart. Interestingly, Morrison is a KC native who has said he’d love to play there. There hasn’t been any reported interest on the Royals’ side, however, and considering they’re in a rebuild, that might not change even if Hosmer exits.
Should nothing materialize at first, where St. Louis could also be an option if its interest in Hosmer is any indication, Morrison may be able to catch on somewhere as a primary DH. Again, though, obvious fits aren’t easy to find. On paper, he’d be a significant improvement over the Angels’ Albert Pujols, but both the future Hall of Famer’s massive contract and the presence of ballyhooed pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani seem to stand in the way of a signing. DH appears to be spoken for among almost all other AL teams, too, with the Yankees looking likely to rotate the position among multiple players and the Mariners (Nelson Cruz), Indians (Edwin Encarnacion), Athletics (Khris Davis), Blue Jays (Kendrys Morales), Rangers (Shin-Soo Choo), Astros (Evan Gattis), Tigers (Victor Martinez) and Orioles (Mark Trumbo) having prominent veterans on hand.
It’s less clear what the Rays, Royals, Twins and White Sox will do at the position, on the other hand. As terrific as Morrison was for Tampa Bay last season, there hasn’t been any buzz about a reunion, in part because the Rays entered the offseason in payroll-cutting mode. The Royals, as mentioned, are in a rebuild, and that could point them to a young, in-house option (Jorge Soler). The Twins could stand to upgrade at DH over the Robbie Grossman/Kennys Vargas/Eduardo Escobar trio, though they’re understandably more focused on bettering their pitching. Plus, if they do add a position player, it might make more sense to find a third base option, thus protecting against a possible suspension for Miguel Sano and/or allowing the big-bodied Sano to spend more time at DH.
Chicago, which is making progress in its own rebuild, actually could make sense as a destination for Morrison. The ChiSox probably won’t push for a playoff spot in 2018, but the same could be said of the Phillies, who still splurged on Santana and had to give up a draft pick and international bonus pool money in the process. Unlike Santana (and Hosmer, for that matter), signing Morrison wouldn’t cost anyone a pick or international money because he didn’t receive a qualifying offer after the season.
While Morrison did all he could to boost his stock during a platform year, it still hasn’t led to an offseason payday during what has been an especially cold winter for major league free agents. The calendar says he’s going to sign soon, though, and if Morrison’s recent work is any indication, the team that lands him just might be adding a reasonably priced offensive force at a time when they’re not typically on the market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Cashman, Free Agency, Rebuilding Teams, Pedroia
On this day 20 years ago, the Yankees announced Brian Cashman would take over for the resigned Bob Watson as their general manager. The 50-year-old Cashman remains in that post today, making him the game’s longest-tenured GM, and it’s no surprise he has hung around when you consider the team’s accomplishments on his watch. The Cashman-led Yankees have gone to the playoffs 16 times, earning six American League pennants and four World Series championships along the way. The fact that Cashman has lasted as long as he has in the sport’s biggest market makes his run all the more impressive, a rival GM suggested to Buster Olney of ESPN. “Twenty years, in New York,” he said. “That’s, what, 140 dog years? Two hundred years?” Olney’s piece is worth checking out for more on Cashman first two decades as a GM, including the relationship he had with former boss and late Yankees owner George Steinbrenner.
More from around baseball as this historically slow offseason continues to plod along…
- Tyler Kepner of the New York Times discussed this inactive winter with with a free agent who, like many other veterans, hasn’t enjoyed his trip to the open market. While commissioner Rob Manfred is zeroing in on implementing pace-of-play changes, the players themselves have bigger concerns, according to the free agent. “The players are so much more focused on what’s always been the crown jewel of our union, which is free agency, and the way that’s kind of been taken away,” he said. “It’s something you once fought and strove for — you wanted to become a free agent desperately.” Saturday looks set to pass without any major league free agent signings, continuing to leave upward of 110 players without deals.
- The Astros, Cubs and Nationals have pulled off model rebuilds in recent years, observes Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required), who goes on to rank the majors’ current rebuilding clubs based on how well they’re executing their plans. No one is doing a better job than the White Sox, Bowden opines, in part because of the recent returns they’ve received in trades for such veterans as Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton. The ChiSox have five top 100 prospects, per Baseball America, and three – Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning – joined the organization via those deals (as did second baseman Yoan Moncada, who has graduated from top prospect status). The other two – Alec Hansen and Luis Robert – came from the draft and international free agency, respectively, which Bowden also highlights as important avenues in which rebuilding teams must hit the jackpot.
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia will sit out some of 2018 after undergoing left knee surgery in October, but there’s hope he won’t miss much time. As per his rehab schedule, Pedroia is lining up for a late-April or early May return, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe estimates. Pedroia told Cafado that he hasn’t suffered any setbacks in his rehab, adding that his “knee has responded well” to running and strength exercises. After roughly six more weeks of running and then, as Cafardo writes, “a period of agility work,” Pedroia will be able to start baseball activities. The 34-year-old franchise stalwart also explained to Cafardo that knee problems weighed on him both physically and mentally in 2017, when he appeared in just 105 games, but he’s currently pain-free.