Olney’s Latest: Hosmer, Padres, Machado, Jays, Red Sox
The Padres have aggressively pursued free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer this offseason, but with the team not ready to contend, the organization is split on whether it would be wise to sign him, Buster Olney of ESPN reports. As of the Winter Meetings, the Padres “were prepared to invest” roughly six years and $120MM in Hosmer, according to executives who spoke with Olney. That would easily surpass Wil Myers‘ six-year, $83MM pact as the largest in Padres history, though it would be a questionable investment for a team that could take at least a couple more seasons to return to the playoffs. By then, Hosmer (currently 28) may be out of his prime.
More rumblings from Olney:
- The Orioles reportedly don’t expect to trade Manny Machado, but they’re still more open than ever to moving him, writes Olney. As such, Olney doesn’t rule out a deal coming together, especially with Machado’s value being higher now than it will be over the summer. At the same time, it “seems a distinct possibility” the O’s will keep Machado through next season because of owner Peter Angelos’ reluctance to rebuild, Olney suggests. In that scenario, Machado would depart as a free agent, presumably after receiving and rejecting a qualifying offer, and the Orioles would only get draft compensation in return.
- Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has suggested on multiple occasions this winter that the club won’t trade third baseman Josh Donaldson prior to the season. Indeed, the Jays “fully intend” to start the year with Donaldson on their roster, per Olney. After missing the playoffs in 2017, Toronto is not ready to rebuild; rather, it’ll attempt to return to its 2015-16 form in the final season of Donaldson’s contract.
- The Red Sox continue to have interest in the best hitter available in free agency, outfielder J.D. Martinez. But an agreement doesn’t seem imminent, as Olney relays they’re willing to wait out agent Scott Boras if necessary. There aren’t many clear suitors for Martinez outside of Boston, thanks in part to some teams trying to avoid the luxury-tax threshold and others rebuilding, which could make it difficult for Boras to drive up the price for Martinez.
Quick Hits: Lagares, Cubs, Darvish, Arrieta, Scott
The Mets are listening to offers for center fielder Juan Lagares, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. However, Puma notes that there’s skepticism within the industry about a trade coming together. New York may have to eat some of the $15.5MM left on Lagares’ contract in order to move him, suggests Puma, who points out that’s not something the team’s often willing to do. The Mets are already low on available spending room as it is – they may only have around $10MM to play with, per Puma – and that’s without having addressed one of second or third base (depending on where Asdrubal Cabrera plays in 2018) or adding a first baseman/outfielder.
- As far as free agent right-handers go, the Cubs have shown more interest this offseason in adding Yu Darvish than re-signing Jake Arrieta. Regardless, the club doesn’t appear likely to engage in “a steep bidding war” for either, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. And while the 31-year-old Darvish may land the bigger contract this winter, Wittenmyer argues that the decorated Arrieta – who’s five months older – could end up as the better bet.
- Former major league outfielder/designated hitter Luke Scott expressed interest in making a comeback at the Winter Meetings earlier this month, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. The former Astro, Oriole and Ray hasn’t played in the majors since 2013, though, and he last suited up at the minor league level in 2015. The lifetime .258/.340/.481 hitter will turn 40 in June. If he can’t resume his playing career, Scott’s open to becoming a hitting coach, Kubatko adds.
- Free agent righty Tyler Wilson is nearing a deal with an unnamed team, Kubatko relays in the same piece. To this point, Wilson has spent his pro career with the Orioles, who chose him in the 10th round of the 2011 draft. He saw action in Baltimore as a swingman in each of the previous three seasons and posted a 5.22 ERA, 4.77 K/9 and 2.42 BB/9 across 145 1/3 innings (42 appearances, 19 starts).
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Longoria, Teheran, Yelich, Phillies, Mets
This week in baseball blogs…
- Underthought and The Giants Cove react to the Evan Longoria trade.
- Outfield Fly Rule comes up with a few trades involving Julio Teheran.
- East Village Times focuses on a potential Christian Yelich acquisition for the Padres.
- Jays Journal would put together a package built around top shortstop prospect Bo Bichette for Yelich.
- Chin Music Baseball lists five teams that still have plenty of work left to do this offseason.
- The K Zone finds that taking a two-year average is the best bet when it comes to predicting most stats.
- Call to the Pen looks into a couple Phillies rumors.
- Camden Depot highlights some of Manny Machado‘s best defensive plays.
- Keith’s Mustache rips Mets ownership.
- FSH Baseball thinks newly signed Mariners reliever Juan Nicasio still has some untapped potential.
- Diehardnyy names candidates to be the Yankees’ Opening Day third baseman next season.
- Big Three Sports analyzes Brewers lefty Josh Hader, whose role for 2018 is uncertain.
- The Loop Sports highlights some under-the-radar free agents who could benefit from joining the White Sox and working with highly regarded pitching coach Don Cooper.
- BP Toronto explores trade scenarios involving Blue Jays DH Kendrys Morales.
- Clubhouse Corner‘s Bernie Pleskoff unveils his top 32 prospects heading into next year.
- Twins Daily zeroes in on Rays who could be logical trade targets for Minnesota.
- DiNardo’s Dugout (podcast) discusses a possible Gerrit Cole trade to the Yankees, how Derek Jeter & Co. are handling the Marlins, and what the Baseball Advanced Media money means for MLB teams and future free agency.
- The Runner Sports has a Christmas wish list for members of the Astros.
- The Point of Pittsburgh shares a Festivus-themed Pirates piece.
- Mets Daddy is pleased about Omar Minaya’s return to the organization.
- The First Out At Third explains why the Brewers brought back Yovani Gallardo.
- Rotisserie Duck weighs in on the 2018 Hall of Fame ballot.
- District On Deck predicts the Nationals’ 2018 bench.
- Everything Bluebirds doesn’t mind the Blue Jays’ patient offseason approach.
- Good Fundies details the Mets’ rocky acquisition of the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs.
Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com
Cafardo’s Latest: Machado, Red Sox, Yankees, Osuna
A few AL East rumblings from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:
- The Red Sox and Yankees remain interested in Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, though neither team has “moved the needle” in talks with the O’s, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Baltimore is reportedly done actively shopping Machado, as it doesn’t believe any other club has put forth a suitable offer for the superstar as he prepares for a contract year. Given that both the Red Sox and Yankees are in the Orioles’ division, it figures to be especially difficult for either to persuade the Orioles to move Machado. The left side of Boston’s infield looks to be in fine shape anyway with Rafael Devers at third and Xander Bogaerts at short. The Yankees, on the other hand, don’t have an obvious third base solution to place next to shortstop Didi Gregorius.
- Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna has garnered plenty of trade inquiries this winter, according to Cafardo. However, there’s no indication the Jays are considering moving the proven Osuna, who’s still young (23 in February) and set to play his first of three potential arbitration years in 2018. The right-hander turned in his third straight excellent year last season, tossing 64 innings of 3.38 ERA ball with career-best strikeout (11.67 K/9), walk (1.27 BB/9) and groundball (48 percent) rates.
- While Boston had interest in first baseman Carlos Santana before he joined the Phillies, the Red Sox never actually made him an offer, per Cafardo. Santana secured a three-year, $60MM guarantee, easily outdoing the two-year, $13MM pact the Sox handed newly re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland this week.
Bartolo Colon Interested In Rejoining Mets
Free agent right-hander Bartolo Colon would consider signing a minor league contract with one team – the Mets – Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter link). It could be a moot point, though, as the Mets have only shown “minimal” interest in Colon this winter, per Puma.
There’s already plenty of familiarity between Colon and the Mets, of course, as he pitched for the club from 2014-16 and emerged as a beloved member of the team during that stretch. Colon threw between 191 2/3 and 202 1/3 innings in each of those seasons and combined for a 3.90 ERA, 6.34 K/9 and 1.31 BB/9.
Colon parlayed his late-career success as a Met into a $12.5MM guarantee with the NL East rival Braves last winter, but his short tenure in Atlanta was disastrous, leading the club to release him in July. Colon finished the year with the playoff-bound Twins on a minors deal and performed better than he did with the Braves, but his results still weren’t appealing. All told, Colon’s age-44 season saw him post a 6.48 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across 143 innings (28 starts).
Now, given that he’s set to turn 45 in May and is coming off a dreadful season, a major league deal could be difficult to come by for Colon this winter. Still, Colon is looking to play one more season, which would be his 21st. With 240 victories, Colon is within striking distance of passing Juan Marichal (243) for most wins by a Dominican-born pitcher. While it would make for a nice story to see him accomplish that feat in a Mets uniform, it doesn’t appear likely the two sides will reunite.
Brewers Sign Yovani Gallardo
DECEMBER 21, 7:31pm: In a new tweet, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com breaks down the full details of Gallardo’s deal. The $2MM in incentives are based on innings pitched, or relief appearances. The righty will earn $100K for reaching milestones of 50, 65 and 80 IP, $150 for 95 and 110 IP thresholds, $200K for reaching 125 and 140 IP, and $250K for 155, 170 and 185 IP marks. Gallardo can also earn $50K for reaching 30 and 40 relief appearances, and $75K when he makes 50 and 60 relief appearances.
11:39am: MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets out an important note regarding the $2MM salary: it’ll only apply should Gallardo crack the Opening Day roster, meaning it isn’t fully guaranteed. McCalvy further notes the incentives can be achieved either by innings or appearances, allowing him some earning possibilities regardless of role.
11:55am: Gallardo’s signing has been announced. He’ll be promised $2MM and can double that via incentives, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter).
DECEMBER 16, 5:23pm: Gallardo received a major league deal, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. It’s pending a physical, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel adds (via Twitter).
4:53pm: The Brewers and free agent right-hander Yovani Gallardo have agreed to a contract, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). Details of the pact aren’t yet available. Gallardo is an Octagon client.
This move represents a homecoming of sorts for the soon-to-be 32-year-old Gallardo, whose greatest major league success has come in a Brewers uniform. A second-round pick of the Brewers in 2004, Gallardo debuted in the majors in 2007 and ultimately served as a front-of-the-rotation presence with the club through 2014. During that eight-season span, Gallardo racked up 1,289 1/3 innings – tossing fewer than 180 frames in just two individual campaigns – and recorded a 3.69 ERA with 8.56 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent groundball rate. He also earned an All-Star nod, the only one of his career, in 2010.
While Gallardo was terrific during his first go-around in Milwaukee, he has significantly declined since it traded him to Texas in a January 2015 deal involving now-Brewers closer Corey Knebel and others. Gallardo’s results were appealing with the Rangers that season (184 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball), but he fell off in earnest after inking a three-year, $35MM contract to join the Orioles heading into 2016. Between Baltimore and Seattle, where he spent last season after going to the Mariners in a January trade for outfielder Seth Smith, Gallardo posted a 5.57 ERA with 6.48 K/9 against 4.38 BB/9 across 248 2/3 innings and 51 appearances (45 starts).
Despite his woes last season, Gallardo did offer some encouraging signs in the form of a velocity increase, his highest swinging-strike rate (8.3 percent) since 2011 and a career-best infield fly percentage (16.3). The Brewers will obviously hope those gains carry over, though it’s unclear if Gallardo will slot into their rotation immediately or occupy a swingman role in his return to Milwaukee. Gallardo’s struggles as a starter last year forced him into the bullpen for the first time in his career, and the Mariners subsequently bought him out in November for $2MM in lieu of keeping him aboard with a $13MM club option.
The Brewers were among the majors’ surprising success stories during an 86-win 2017, but they’ll head into 2018 without top starter Jimmy Nelson, who will miss time after undergoing shoulder surgery in September. Now, they’re down to Chase Anderson and Zach Davies atop a rotation mix that could clearly use more help beyond Gallardo (depth chart). It’s reasonable to expect general manager David Stearns to make further pitching additions, then, whether via free agency, the trade market or both.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mariners Sign Juan Nicasio
DECEMBER 21: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has the details on Nicasio’s contract. The reliever will earn $7.5MM in 2018 and $9MM in 2019, with a $500K signing bonus. He can earn up to $4MM in incentives, which are based on games finished.
DECEMBER 20: Nicasio’s signing has been announced.
DECEMBER 13, 5:46pm: The deal’s worth $17MM, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
4:19pm: The Mariners have agreed to a two-year contract with free agent reliever Juan Nicasio, pending a physical, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Nicasio, a client of Reynolds Sports Management, is the latest reliever to come off the board during the Winter Meetings, where a robust market has developed for bullpen pieces.
[RELATED: Updated Mariners Depth Chart]
The 31-year-old Nicasio, a former starter, drew interest from several teams on the heels of his best full season as a reliever, in which he spent time with the Pirates, Phillies and Cardinals. The right-hander combined for 72 1/3 innings across a National League-high 76 appearances with those clubs and recorded a 2.61 ERA, adding 8.96 K/9 against 2.49 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Dating back to 2014, the first season in which he began garnering experience as a reliever, Nicasio has tossed 205 frames of 3.38 ERA ball while registering 9.99 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9.
The production Nicasio has offered during his time as a reliever would be a boon to a Mariners bullpen that finished with middle-of-the-pack rankings in ERA (13th) and fWAR (16th) in 2017. The M’s have since lost one of their top relievers from last year in Emilio Pagan, whom they traded to the Athletics for first baseman Ryon Healy last month. But other than Nicasio, there are still several appealing late-game options on hand in a group that includes fellow righties Edwin Diaz, Nick Vincent, David Phelps and Tony Zych and southpaws Marc Rzepczynski and James Pazos.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cubs To Meet With Yu Darvish
MONDAY: While the Cubs are evidently still looking at a number of rotation options, the interest in Darvish appears to be serious. Top Chicago execs Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are meeting with Darvish and his reps in Texas, according to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link) and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
An in-person chat hardly suggests a deal is inevitable or even likely. But it’s a definite step beyond internal discussions or swapping texts with an agent. At the same time, to this point all indications have been that the Cubs are looking for the right price among a field of possibilities, with trade options and other free agents also in play.
SATURDAY: The Cubs have been very active on the pitching market this winter, and now they’re looking at the top free agent arm available. The club has interest in right-hander Yu Darvish, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. He’d be the fifth pitcher the Cubs have signed this offseason, joining two starters (Tyler Chatwood and Drew Smyly) and a pair of relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek).
As MLBTR’s No. 1-ranked free agent (notably, Tim Dierkes & Co. forecast Darvish to the Cubs entering the offseason), the 31-year-old would require a far bigger commitment than anyone else Chicago has added in recent weeks. For a lofty price, Darvish would provide the back-to-back National League Central champions with a replacement for fellow free agent Jake Arrieta at the front of their rotation, filling out a starting quintet that would also include Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood. It’s worth noting that Smyly might not pitch at all in 2018, having undergone Tommy John surgery last year, while Mike Montgomery would likely slot in as a reliever (to his chagrin, it seems).
Darvish, who debuted with the Rangers in 2012 and underwent a Tommy John procedure two years later, has pitched to a 3.42 ERA/3.30 FIP combination and logged 11.04 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9 across 832 1/3 major league innings. He ended last year with the Dodgers, who acquired him at the trade deadline, and mostly performed well. Darvish even earned one of the Dodgers’ four wins over the Cubs in a five-game National League Championship Series, tossing 6 1/3 frames of one-run, six-hit ball and notching seven strikeouts against one walk in Game 3. While Darvish struggled mightily in two World Series losses to Houston, including in Game 7, it’s up in the air whether that will tamp down his earning power to any noticeable extent (if at all).
Because Darvish was part of a midseason trade, he was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after the conclusion of the campaign. Consequently, the team that signs him won’t have to surrender draft-pick compensation in the process. That’s not the case with fellow free agent righty Alex Cobb, who rejected a QO from the Rays and whom the Cubs were aggressively courting last weekend. But it seems the Cubs cooled on Cobb during this week’s Winter Meetings, where they found his asking price “prohibitive,” Levine reports.
Central Notes: Brewers, Royals, Cards, Donaldson, Cubs
The Brewers, searching for starters, relievers and a second baseman, spoke with the Royals about their available players at the Winter Meetings, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported earlier this week (on Twitter). It’s unclear whether those discussions actually led anywhere, however. Speculatively, considering the Brewers’ needs, talks could have involved anyone from a group consisting of Royals starters Danny Duffy and Jason Hammel, relievers Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria and Scott Alexander, and second baseman Whit Merrifield. All six of those players have been part of the rumor mill this month.
- The Cardinals typically prefer to acquire controllable players, notes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis-Post Dispatch, though “it remains possible” the win-now club will swing a deal for one year of Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson or the Orioles’ Manny Machado. The Redbirds and Blue Jays continue to discuss Donaldson, according to Goold, but he’s the latest to point out that the Jays don’t seem motivated to move him.
- While the Cubs “are kicking the tires of every free-agent starter” as they look for a top-of-the-rotation arm, they’re unwilling to meet any of their asking prices as of now, Bob Nightengale of USA Today relays (Twitter link). Of the best starters available – Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn – the latter is the only one who hasn’t drawn reported interest from the Cubs this offseason. Although, one could infer from Nightengale’s tweet that the Cubs have at least given the longtime Cardinal some consideration.
- Speaking of the Cubs’ pitching search, they were in the thick of the Shohei Ohtani derby earlier this month before he signed with the Angels. Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks told Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago that he was involved in the team’s recruiting pitch to Ohtani. The Cubs had Hendricks join them in their Los Angeles meeting with Ohtani because his low-key demeanor is similar to the Japanese superstar’s, per Levine. “It was very humbling and pretty cool to be invited,” Hendricks said. “It was great to be in the room and see the process. He is such a great talent, and it was enjoyable to see what type of guy he is — very down to earth and a humble guy. Even with the language barrier, Theo let me know what his personality was like. He was all baseball all of the time. We have some similarities, so it was fun to go there and talk baseball with him.”
How Good Are The Angels?
The Angels have employed the world’s best baseball player, center fielder Mike Trout, since 2011, yet the team has never come close to fully capitalizing on his presence. The Halos endured their third straight non-playoff season in 2017, during which a thumb injury helped limit Trout to a career-low 114 games, and finished below .500 (80-82) for the second year in a row. With Trout on their roster, the Angels have gone to the postseason just once – in 2014 – and the Royals swept them from the American League Division Series that year. So, through no real fault of his own, Trout has never even won a playoff game in the majors.
With Trout set to enter the third-last year of his contract in 2018, general manager Billy Eppler has spent this offseason making one impressive move after another to ensure the Angels finally give real support to the two-time AL MVP. Not only was Eppler able to reel in the offseason’s top free agent, ballyhooed Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani, but he also kept big-hitting left fielder Justin Upton from leaving via the open market and improved the team’s infield substantially with the pickups of second baseman Ian Kinsler (acquired from the Tigers) and third baseman Zack Cozart (signed to a three-year, $38MM deal).
The Angels’ inability to find solutions at either the keystone or the hot corner helped lead to their downfall last season, when their second basemen finished with the majors’ third-worst fWAR (minus-0.3) and their third basemen posted the league’s 10th-worst mark (2.0). Kinsler and Cozart combined for 7.4 fWAR in 2017, meanwhile, and the latter was particularly strong during an unexpected offensive breakout (.297/.385/.548 in 507 plate appearances). Even if that proves to be a mirage and Cozart regresses to being the roughly league-average hitter he was from 2015-16, both that and the ex-Reds shortstop’s top-quality defense would still make him a welcome addition in Anaheim.
Now, with Trout, Upton, Kinsler, Cozart, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Martin Maldonado and right fielder Kole Calhoun, the Angels have an enviable core group of position players (though Calhoun’s the only lefty-swinger of the bunch). Of course, they may yet have another impressive bat in Ohtani, who thrived as a lefty slugger in Japan and will get an opportunity to factor in as a designated hitter with the Angels. Another benefit of Ohtani’s presence is that it should make it easier for the team to limit the at-bats of future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols, who seemed to finally hit the wall during his age-37 campaign in 2017.
While it’s anyone’s guess whether Ohtani’s offensive excellence will transfer from Japan to North America, he at least figures to be a front-line starting pitcher if healthy. That’s not a given, unfortunately, as the hard-throwing right-hander is currently dealing with a sprained UCL in his throwing elbow. Every team that courted Ohtani during his famous foray into free agency seemingly knew about the issue at the time, however, and there’s hope it won’t prove to be a major injury.
Barring a disastrous turn of events, Ohtani and fellow righty Garrett Richards – who barely pitched over the previous two years while contending with injuries of his own – should form an outstanding one-two punch. There are injury- and performance-related questions peppered throughout the rest of what could be a six-man starting staff, though, with no one from the quintet of Matt Shoemaker, Parker Bridwell, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano inspiring a ton of confidence.
Beyond that, a bullpen that was an upper-echelon group last season lost arguably its premier reliever, workhorse Yusmeiro Petit, who joined the AL West rival Athletics in free agency. With apologies to up-and-down veteran Jim Johnson, whom the Angels acquired from the Braves last month, they haven’t done anything to adequately replace Petit. Consequently, their current relief corps consists of several question marks aside from Blake Parker, who was tremendous last season.
Eppler’s heavy lifting for the offseason is probably over, but he could still address certain areas – namely the pitching staff – in an effort to bolster the Angels’ playoff chances in 2018. At the same time, other AL GMs will surely make moves in the coming months that help shape the postseason race next year. But for now, the Angels join the division-rival/reigning world champion Astros, Indians, Yankees and Red Sox as the class of the AL, according to FanGraphs, which regards the new-look Halos as an 86-win team. Based on that projection, the Angels would finish three games ahead of sixth-place Toronto, earn the AL’s second wild-card spot and snap their three-year playoff drought. We’re still a few months from seeing these Angels play a meaningful game, but are you on the bandwagon right now?
(Poll link for App users)
Do you expect the Angels to make the playoffs in 2018?
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Yes 66% (12,374)
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No 34% (6,516)
Total votes: 18,890
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.