Cubs Rumblings: Arrieta, Darvish, Cobb, Cole, Yelich
The latest on the North Siders comes from Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago…
- To this point, the Cubs and Cardinals have shown the most interest in free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta, according to Levine. The Cubs reportedly may be willing to offer a four-year, $110MM contract to the soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta, who mostly thrived with the team from 2013-17.
- Elsewhere on the pitching market, the Cubs remain in contact with Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb, per Levine, though he casts doubt on them being the favorites to sign the latter. They’re wary of Cobb’s asking price, which appears to be in the $17MM to $19MM range per annum, Levine relays.
- Along with the previously reported Chris Archer, the Cubs are interested in swinging a trade for Pirates righty Gerrit Cole, Levine writes. This is the first reported connection of the offseason between the Cubs and Cole, who has mostly been linked to the Yankees. Talks between the Yankees and Pirates simmered last month, though, which could pave the way for another team to swoop in and land the 27-year-old. Given that Chicago and Pittsburgh are in the same division, the Cubs are obviously quite familiar with Cole. The Scott Boras client is under control for the next two seasons, and he’ll earn a projected $7.5MM in 2018.
- Looking beyond starting pitching possibilities, Levine doesn’t rule out more additions to the Cubs’ bullpen or position player group. With Wade Davis having signed with the Rockies, the Cubs could be in the market for a closer if they don’t want to turn the ninth-inning reins to either of the just-signed Brandon Morrow–Steve Cishek tandem or another in-house option. But whether the team bids on a top free agent like Greg Holland or Addison Reed could depend on how much spending room it has left after it picks up another starter, per Levine. Further, it’s possible the Cubs could try to trade for Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who would likely cost them fellow center fielder Albert Almora Jr. in a deal, Levine contends. He also lists free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain as a name to watch for the Cubs.
NL Notes: Marlins, Dodgers, Rockies, Brewers
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald has obtained two versions of Project Wolverine – the operational plan of new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman – one of which is from August and the other from a couple months before. According to the document, whose name stems from Jeter’s home state of Michigan (the Wolverine State), the Marlins will turn a profit in 2018. Most of that will come from MLB’s sale of BAMTech to Disney, which entitles each team to a one-time payout of $50MM. Otherwise, exactly how much of a profit the Marlins will rake in next season is going to depend largely on their television deal with Fox, Jackson explains.
Back in August, Jeter and Sherman forecast a $68MM “cash flow” profit, but they projected $44.8MM would come via an up-front payment from a renegotiated TV contract with Fox. There hasn’t been a renegotiation yet, though, and if it doesn’t occur, the Marlins’ projected profits would drop to $23MM or lower for next season, Jackson reports. The Marlins’ pact with Fox runs through 2020 and ranks as the lowest-paying TV contract in the majors, and as Jackson notes, it’s a key reason why the team is unwilling to field a larger payroll. Additionally, as of August, the Marlins expected a 2018 spike in attendance revenue, but that now looks questionable at best with fan favorites Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been traded in payroll-slashing deals. Looking beyond next season, Jeter and Sherman projected profits of $10MM in 2019, $15.8MM in 2020 and $22MM in 2021 in August, details Jackson, whose piece is well worth a full read.
More from the NL:
- The Dodgers have hired former major league right-hander Mark Prior to serve as their bullpen coach, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links here). Prior had worked as the division-rival Padres’ minor league pitching coordinator since he officially retired from the game in 2013. The 37-year-old was “very good” in that role, notes Brown, who suggests Prior could eventually take over for Rick Honeycutt as the Dodgers’ pitching coach.
- The Rockies re-signed reliever Jake McGee to a three-year, $27MM contract earlier this winter, and he repaid the club by helping recruit closer Wade Davis to Colorado, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post relays. “I told him this was a team that was going to win now,” said McGee. “I told him that (manager) Bud Black was awesome and I really liked how he used the bullpen. I told him the team was awesome and the communication was really good.” McGee and Davis, who joined the Rox last week on a three-year, $52MM pact, previously played together in both the minors and majors as members of the Rays organization. The two were even Single-A roommates at times, Saunders adds.
- Brewers righty Jimmy Nelson, who underwent surgery on a torn labrum in September, told MLB Network on Tuesday that his “rehab is going just about as well as it could possibly go, knock on wood” (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Its still unclear, though, how much time the 28-year-old will miss next season after emerging as a front-of-the-rotation starter in 2017. For now, Nelson’s “really anxious to start a throwing program and get to spring training.”
Checking In On Last Year’s American League Playoff Teams
With 10 teams qualifying for the MLB playoffs annually, there’s guaranteed to be a fair amount of turnover at the top of the mountain each season. For instance, both the 2016 and ’17 postseasons welcomed five playoff teams that didn’t earn a trip during the previous campaign. At least some of last year’s playoff-bound clubs will face a high degree of vulnerability going into 2018, then, and it would obviously behoove all 10 to make as many improvements as possible heading into the spring. This offseason has unexpectedly operated at a Pedro Baez-esque pace, leaving room for 2017’s top teams to make some significant moves over the next couple months if they wish.
As you’ll see below in this AL-focused edition, headline-grabbing transactions are likely still on the way for some of the junior circuit’s best teams from a year ago.
Cleveland Indians (2017 record: 102-60; current FanGraphs projection for 2018: 93-69): While the Indians are the odds-on favorites to win the AL Central for the third straight year, they’ve absorbed multiple blows this winter. First baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana, who had been a stalwart for the Tribe since 2010, joined the Phillies as a free agent. Likewise, workhorse reliever Bryan Shaw and fellow late-game standout Joe Smith exited on the open market, taking away a couple members of last year’s otherworldly pitching staff. And the Indians may also lose two more notable 2017 contributors in outfielders Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson, both of whom are unsigned.
Contrary to last offseason, when the Indians’ windfall from their 2016 World Series run helped them splurge on free agent Edwin Encarnacion, they’re unlikely to make any major moves this winter. As it stands, Cleveland hasn’t created headlines aside from exercising talented but injury-prone outfielder Michael Brantley‘s $12MM option, reeling in Santana’s replacement – Yonder Alonso, whose fly ball-first offensive approach led to quality results in 2017 – and picking up outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. on a minor league pact. Jackson himself took a minors deal last year and went on to thrive as a reserve, giving the Indians hope that Upton will reestablish himself in similar fashion next season.
Houston Astros (2017 finish: 101-61; current projection for 2018: 97-65): No one would have blamed the reigning World Series champions for doing little to nothing this winter, given the dearth of weaknesses on their roster. Thus far, a bullpen that was unreliable in the playoffs has been an area of focus. Even that group wasn’t in dire need of help, however, despite Luke Gregerson‘s departure in free agency. Nevertheless, the Astros bolstered their relief corps with the signings of the aforementioned Smith and ex-Cub Hector Rondon, giving them two more righties to join the likes of Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Will Harris and Joe Musgrove.
It’s possible Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow’s offseason heavy lifting is now done, though it would seem unwise to rule out more pickups. After all, the Astros have been connected to top-tier starters Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and Chris Archer, star outfielder Christian Yelich, and catchers J.T. Realmuto and Jonathan Lucroy on the rumor mill in recent weeks. They even showed some interest in 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton before the Marlins shipped him to the Yankees last month, and they’ve looked at free agent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.
The shine has come off CarGo lately, but he might help replace retired designated hitter Carlos Beltran – who, despite being a highly respected veteran presence, wasn’t productive on the field last season. For now, catcher Evan Gattis is the front-runner to serve as Houston’s DH in 2018. If he does, that could open up room for a Realmuto or Lucroy acquisition, especially with Gattis and starting backstop Brian McCann likely to become free agents after next season.
Boston Red Sox (2017 finish: 93-69; current projection for 2018: 91-71): Despite their success last season, the Red Sox endured an uncharacteristically poor year at the plate as they began life after David Ortiz. While Boston did finish 10th in the majors in runs, it placed just 22nd in wRC+, 27th in home runs and 28th in ISO. Consequently, their fan base has been calling for the acquisition of a bopper to help fill Ortiz’s monumental void. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is sure to oblige at some point as he attempts to make life easier on rookie manager Alex Cora. The question is: Will the Red Sox successfully woo the premier hitter on the market, outfielder J.D. Martinez, and where would he play with the enviable OF trio of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi in the fold?
The Red Sox and Martinez, an elite hitter with serious defensive limitations in the grass, have been in a staring contest for weeks. With free agency moving so slowly, a deal doesn’t appear imminent. Should Boston come up short in the Martinez sweepstakes, it’s unclear what it would do for a Plan B. Free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer, White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu and Orioles shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado have been on the Red Sox’s radar this winter; however, the presences of just-re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland and DH Hanley Ramirez could complicate matters (the latter may be a release candidate, though), and acquiring Machado from the division-rival Orioles is hardly a slam dunk.
New York Yankees (2017 finish: 91-71; current projection for 2018: 91-71): The Yankees have also been in on Machado, who’d add to an already ridiculous lineup that includes the newest Bronx Bomber, Stanton, fellow 50-home run man Aaron Judge and big-hitting catcher Gary Sanchez, among others. Although swinging a deal for Machado appears unlikely, he’d fill a greater need in New York than he would in Boston. The Red Sox, after all, look set on the left side of their infield with Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, whereas the Yankees have lost third basemen Chase Headley and Todd Frazier since last season. They also waved goodbye to second baseman Starlin Castro, who – along with two low-level prospects – went to Miami in the Stanton swap. But that was a small price to pay to get Stanton and Judge in the same lineup and outfield.
Being able to write Stanton, Judge and Sanchez into his normal lineup will put neophyte skipper Aaron Boone in an enviable spot, but the Yankees’ work isn’t necessarily done. While they’re bent on staying below the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018, GM Brian Cashman still seems likely to acquire at least one veteran infielder (perhaps Frazier, who remains a free agent) so as not to turn to unproven options at both second and third. Additionally, despite the re-signing of CC Sabathia and the presences of Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka (who surprisingly didn’t opt out of his contract at season’s end), Sonny Gray and Jordan Montgomery, Cashman has been on the hunt for an established, controllable starter.
The Yankees sent a haul of prospects to the A’s for multiple years’ control over Gray last summer, and it may happen again this winter for someone like Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), Chris Archer (Rays) or Danny Duffy (Royals). Alternatively, a trade for contract-year Diamondbacks left-hander Patrick Corbin seems like a possibility. The Yankees have also shown interest in Darvish, though that looks like an improbable match when considering their tax concerns. Dumping a large portion of reserve outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury‘s $68MM-plus contract on someone would help make a Darvish signing more realistic, but good luck with that.
Minnesota Twins (2017 finish: 85-77; current projection for 2018: 81-81): Speaking of Darvish, the small-market Twins have aggressively courted him this offseason as they work to upgrade an underwhelming starting staff. It’s an unlikely marriage on paper, but GM Thad Levine is familiar with Darvish from their time in Texas together. More importantly, the Twins have money available to make such a splash, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in November. Whether via free agency (Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb) or a trade (Archer?), it would behoove the Twins to add at least one proven starter to a group that lacks certainty after Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. Otherwise, repeating as a postseason-bound team in 2018 could be a rather tall task for Minnesota, particularly with the playoff-hopeful Angels having made one well-received move after another this winter. The Twins, meanwhile, have been mostly quiet in terms of transactions, with relatively inexpensive relievers Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke being their only notable signings.
Of course, when talking about the Twins’ offseason, it would be impossible to ignore the controversy surrounding franchise building block and third baseman Miguel Sano. Last week, photographer Betsy Bissen accused Sano of assaulting her in 2015. Sano issued a denial, but the league is now investigating the claim.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Notes: Yelich, Realmuto, Marlins, Machado, Sox, Orioles
The Marlins continue to discuss center fielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto with other clubs, but there’s “nothing imminent” on the trade front, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Although the Marlins are in teardown mode, it would reportedly take a “huge overpay” for them to deal either Yelich or Realmuto, their two most valuable assets. The 26-year-old Yelich is controllable through 2022 on one of the majors’ most appealing contracts, while Realmuto (27 in March) is set to play his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns in 2018. Kyle Downing of MLBTR examined Yelich, Realmuto and the rest of Miami’s trade candidates over the weekend.
More on the Fish and a couple other East Coast franchises:
- Miami traded both Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna earlier this offseason, thus subtracting a pair of in-their-prime sluggers who combined for a whopping 96 home runs in 2017. Now, with those two in other uniforms, the organization is “looking for guys who can provide power in the middle of the lineup,” vice president of player development and scouting Gary Denbo told Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Unsurprisingly, though, the Marlins aren’t competing for high-level free agents who would serve as short-term upgrades, per Frisaro, who writes that “their vision is more long range.”
- With the Red Sox still interested in acquiring Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, Ian Browne of MLB.com weighs in on a potential trade between the AL East rivals. Browne senses that the Red Sox don’t want to trade either shortstop Xander Bogaerts or center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason, but he concedes that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the former head to Baltimore as part of a Machado deal. The Red Sox would be losing two years of Bogaerts for a single season of control over Machado. As such, if Boston acquires Machado, it would make an aggressive push to re-up the superstar in order to prevent him from leaving as a free agent next winter, Browne adds.
- The Orioles still face a difficult path, all the more so given that the team will evidently be paying Zach Britton a full arbitration salary for what might be little more than a half season of work. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes that, while the rotation market still hasn’t moved much, some of the arms from Baltimore’s potential target demographic are among those that have found new teams. Meanwhile, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com considers the question of whether the team will look to make second baseman Jonathan Schoop a part of a new long-term core — and, if so, how much it might cost to get something done.
Poll: What’s Next For The Pirates?
As those who paid attention to the MLB offseason a year ago remember, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen was among the most popular figures in the rumor mill. At the time, the Pittsburgh icon was coming off a career-worst season both offensively and defensively, which surely hindered the team in its efforts to garner suitable offers for him. Ultimately, the Pirates retained McCutchen and enjoyed a bounce-back year from him at the plate (.279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 PAs). While McCutchen struggled again in the grass, where he posted minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, the onetime National League MVP nonetheless ranked a solid 17th among outfielders in fWAR (3.7).
This winter, on the heels of a rebound year, rumors regarding McCutchen haven’t been nearly as abundant. The Giants are the only known team with interest in the 31-year-old, yet they don’t seem to view him as a priority. Still, although nothing looks imminent on the McCutchen front, it’s possible the five-time All-Star has played his last game with the Pirates – who drafted him 11th overall in 2005.
With McCutchen entering a contract year in 2018, in which he’ll make $14.75MM, general manager Neal Huntington acknowledged this month that the player’s time in Pittsburgh may be winding down. Trading McCutchen prior to the season wouldn’t seem to make much sense if the Pirates plan to compete next season and avoid a third straight non-playoff campaign, but a return to prominence may be a long shot.
With McCutchen in the fold, the Pirates are projected to start 2018 with a payroll of just under $104MM. That would represent a season-opening high for owner Bob Nutting, whose rosters haven’t begun any campaign above the $100MM mark since he took the helm of the franchise in 2007. The Pirates’ low-spending ways may make an offseason McCutchen trade all the more likely, though he’s not the only notable veteran they could jettison to help cut costs. Infielder Josh Harrison, who will make $10MM in his third-last year of team control next season, has drawn widespread trade interest and might find himself in the uniform of the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays or another club by the springtime.
Unlike McCutchen and Harrison – two useful but not great assets – right-hander Gerrit Cole would bring back a significant return in a trade. Not only is the flamethrowing 27-year-old a bona fide No. 2/3 starter, but he’s due a relatively modest $7.5MM in 2018. Considering Cole’s a Scott Boras client, the likelihood of him eschewing free agency in favor of a long-term extension with the Pirates seems low. That could increase their urgency to trade Cole, who’s going into his penultimate year of team control.
No doubt cognizant of the Boras factor, Huntington was reportedly “motivated” to part with Cole earlier this month. It appeared then that Cole would join the Yankees, but talks between them and the Pirates subsequently lost momentum. Even if Pittsburgh and New York don’t eventually find common ground, though, there are plenty of other teams that would benefit from a Cole addition – and the Bucs have engaged with some of those clubs.
At times, the 2017 portion of the offseason was a slow-moving bore, but the payoff is that there will be copious trades and signings in the New Year. With enticing trade chips in McCutchen, Harrison and Cole, the Pirates may often find themselves at the center of the action leading up to April. If you were calling the shots for the club, how would you approach the next couple months?
(poll link for app users)
What should the Pirates do this winter?
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Trade more than one 57% (8,927)
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Keep all three and reassess during the season 22% (3,426)
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Trade Cole 10% (1,581)
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Trade McCutchen 8% (1,223)
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Trade Harrison 3% (507)
Total votes: 15,664
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Taking Inventory: Tampa Bay Rays
Coming off an 80-win campaign, its fourth straight sub-.500 season, Tampa Bay entered the winter in payroll-trimming mode. The Rays opened last season with a paltry payroll of just over $70MM, and if they’re not even willing to spend that amount in 2018, it’ll make competing in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox all the more difficult. It’s possible, then, that the Rays will opt for a major rebuild in the coming months. So far this offseason, they’ve already subtracted third baseman and longtime face of the franchise Evan Longoria, who went to the Giants in a late-December, five-player trade. Odds are that Longoria won’t be the last notable veteran the Rays jettison over the next few months – especially considering they still have multiple trade candidates who would garner strong returns, as you’ll see below.
One-Year Rentals
Denard Span, OF ($13MM, including a $4MM buyout in 2019): The Rays acquired Span in the Longoria trade to help balance out money, so they could flip the 33-year-old before he ever plays a game for them. However, Span didn’t do his trade value any favors in 2017, combining roughly league-average offense (.272/.329/.427 in 542 plate appearances) with the ugliest defensive showing of his career (minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating). Span may have been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors last season, likely his last as a center fielder. So, Span’s now a defensively limited corner outfielder without a big bat. That’s not a great combination, especially at his price tag and with so many corner options remaining in free agency. In the event the Rays shop Span but don’t find a taker for him, the Tampa Bay native would be thrilled to suit up for his hometown team.
Wilson Ramos, C ($10.5MM): Ramos wasn’t effective in 2017, nor are there many contending teams looking for short-term upgrades at catcher (for those that are, free agents Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila could be more appealing). Those factors, not to mention Ramos’ salary, figure to make him a tough sell. Ramos deserves credit for returning last season from the torn ACL he suffered in September 2016, but his offensive production took a dive (he logged a 124 wRC+ in 2016 and a 92 wRC+ in 2017). The former National also endured an uncharacteristically poor defensive season and threw out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers (down from 37 percent the prior year).
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS ($5MM projected arbitration salary): The Marlins sent Hechavarria to the Rays in a payroll-cutting move last June, which should tell you he doesn’t have much trade value. Hechavarria has been an excellent defender of late (23 DRS, 27.9 UZR since 2015), though, and that could make him a target for a team in need of a slick-fielding infielder. Of course, Hechavarria’s inability to contribute offensively has somewhat undermined his terrific glove work. The 29-year-old owns a lifetime .255/.291/.345 batting line (granted, he hit a more respectable .261/.289/406 last season), and he doesn’t offer much power (.090 ISO) or base-stealing prowess (30 of 48 in his career).
Two Years Of Control
Jake Odorizzi, SP ($6.5MM projected salary): The Rays understandably want a respectable haul for the right-handed Odorizzi, who’s a proven big league starter with youth on his side (28 in March). Unfortunately for them, Odorizzi was a disappointment last year (4.14 ERA/5.43 FIP in 143 1/3 innings), thanks in part to injuries (he went on the disabled list once for a hamstring issue and another time on account of back problems), a career-worst walk mark (3.83 per nine) and a bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (15.5 percent).
Both Odorizzi’s struggles last year and a lifetime groundball rate of 33.7 percent stand out as red flags, though he’s not far removed from a 2014-16 stretch in which he averaged 175 frames per season and pitched to a 3.72 ERA/3.91 FIP. Given Odorizzi’s overall track record, the Rays shouldn’t have trouble finding a team for him if they’re motivated to ship him out.
Corey Dickerson, OF/DH ($6.4MM projected salary): Dickerson opened his career in impressive fashion as a Rockie from 2013-15, though the lefty-swinger struggled against same-handed pitchers and away from hitter-friendly Coors Field during that stretch. In 2016, his first year in Tampa Bay, Dickerson did little to quell concerns that he was a platoon bat and a product of the Mile High air, but he bounced back to a degree last season. The 28-year-old earned his first All-Star nod on the strength of a .312/.355/.548 first-half line, though his production dropped off sharply after mid-July (.241/.282/.408). Moreover, Statcast indicates Dickerson’s expected weighted-on base average (.310) paled in comparison to his actual wOBA (.350). There remain questions about Dickerson’s offensive game, then; on the positive side, Dickerson was similarly solid against both right- and left-handed pitchers for the first time in his career last season, and the advanced metrics (one DRS, 8.7 UZR) looked favorably on his defense from 2016-17. Still, this probably isn’t a player who’s teeming with trade value.
Brad Miller, IF ($4.4MM projected salary): The Rays may have shopped Miller, 28, before tendering him a contract last month. If they did, teams likely weren’t lining up for a player who trudged through a miserable, injury-affected 2017. After posting terrific power numbers (30 homers, .239 ISO) and hitting .243/.304/.482 as a first baseman/shortstop in 2016, he limped to a .201/.327/.337 line with nine HRs and a .136 ISO as a second baseman last season. While Miller is versatile defensively, he has never held his own anywhere with the glove. All things considered, there’s not much value here at the moment.
Dan Jennings, RP ($2.5MM projected salary): Tampa Bay was in the playoff race approaching last July’s non-waiver trade deadline, which led the club to ship a decent prospect – first baseman Casey Gillaspie – to the White Sox for the left-handed Jennings. The Rays fell apart over the season’s final couple months, making the acquisition somewhat of a waste. The club could now try to flip the inexpensive Jennings, who has held his own for most of his career. Jennings has fared nicely against both left- and right-handed hitters, having limited the former to a .307 wOBA and the latter to a .300 mark. While his lifetime strikeout and walk numbers aren’t palatable (7.31 K/9, 4.09 BB/9), Jennings has induced grounders at a 55.2 percent clip and managed a 2.90 ERA over 279 2/3 innings. The soon-to-be 31-year-old may bring back something useful in a trade, then, if the Rays are inclined to move him.
Longer-Term Assets
Kevin Kiermaier, OF (controllable through 2023 for $60MM): There has been no real chatter this winter about the Rays dealing Kiermaier, whom they locked up to an extension prior to last season. Although the solid-hitting defensive maven seems likely to stick in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future, he’d certainly draw plenty of looks on the trade market. Dating back to 2014, his breakout season, Kiermaier ranks eighth among outfielders in fWAR (16.1), owing to his all-around game. Kiermaier, who will turn 28 in April, combined for ridiculous defensive numbers in center over the previous four seasons (103 DRS, 62.8 UZR) and complemented those with an above-average batting line (.262/.319/.431) and base-stealing ability (60 on 79 tries).
Chris Archer, SP (controllable through 2021 for $34MM): With Kiermaier unlikely to go anywhere, the 29-year-old Archer stands out as the crown jewel of the Rays’ realistic trade possibilities; more than that, the durable, hard-throwing righty’s track record and team-friendly contract combine to make him one of the game’s most valuable assets. As a result, the Rays could simply keep him and continue to benefit from his presence. But if they opt for a full-scale rebuild, aggressively shopping Archer would make sense. While it’s unclear how serious the Rays actually are about trading Archer, he has already garnered significant interest this offseason, unsurprisingly.
Alex Colome, RP ($5.5MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): A Colome trade looked like an inevitably entering the offseason, and multiple teams have aggressively pursued him recently, but no deal has come together yet. One of those suitors, Colorado, is likely out of the Colome market after signing fellow closer Wade Davis this week. Still, there are other teams with late-game needs – namely St. Louis – that could put together a package for the former starter. Colome, who turned 29 on New Year’s Eve, is coming off a league-best 47-save season (his second full-time campaign as a reliever), though he did see his other numbers fall off precipitously compared to 2016. His K/9 (11.28 to 7.83), BB/9 (2.38 to 3.11), swinging-strike percentage (15.1 to 11.6) and ERA (1.91 to 3.24) all went in the wrong direction last year.
Steven Souza, OF ($3.6MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): At least one team has checked in with the Rays about the righty-hitting Souza this offseason, but there’s no indication he’s going anywhere. The Rays would be selling high on the three-year veteran if they did part with him, though; despite hip problems, Souza’s fresh off a season in which he slashed .239/.351/.459 with personal bests in PAs (617), home runs (30), ISO (.220) walk rate (13 percent) and strikeout rate (29 percent). It’s worth noting that Souza wasn’t nearly as effective in the two prior seasons, and his xwOBA (.334) fell well short of his actual wOBA (.353) in 2017. To his credit, the soon-to-be 29-year-old complemented his most recent output at the plate with plus defense (seven DRS, 4.3 UZR) in right field for the second straight season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Darvish, Twins, Cole, Cards, JBJ, Archer
This week in baseball blogs…
- Twins Daily asks what Minnesota should do if it fails to sign Yu Darvish.
- Pirates Breakdown wonders if Gerrit Cole has lived up to the hype since going No. 1 overall in the 2011 draft.
- STL Hat Trick doesn’t see Eric Hosmer and the Cardinals as a logical match.
- Chin Music Baseball examines possible fits for Jackie Bradley Jr. if the Red Sox trade him.
- 216Stitches puts together a Brewers-Rays trade centering on Chris Archer.
- District On Deck grades Nationals GM Mike Rizzo’s 10 best free agent signings.
- Jays From the Couch regards Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk as a logical trade target for Toronto.
- Call to the Pen sees potential for a Phillies-Royals trade.
- Think Blue Planning Committee projects the Dodgers’ 25-man roster for 2018.
- NY Yankees Digest assesses the team’s rotation.
- Jays Journal wants the club to go after Marlins righty Dan Straily.
- The Point of Pittsburgh runs a thought experiment on starting the Pirates from scratch with a $120MM budget
- East Village Times hopes Manny Machado joins the Padres as a free agent next winter.
- Off The Bench ranks the National League managers.
- The First Out At Third offers a 2018 projection for new Brewers hurler Jhoulys Chacin.
- Camden Depot isn’t too pleased with the Orioles’ offseason.
- Sports Talk Philly explains why 2018 will be a crucial year for the Phillies.
- Everything Bluebirds doesn’t see the Blue Jays trading Roberto Osuna anytime soon.
- Notes From the Sally previews the 2018 Augusta GreenJackets, the Giants’ South Atlantic League affiliate.
- Clubhouse Corner focuses on some of the key offseason storylines to date.
- Underthought takes a look at some theories and research regarding lineup construction.
- The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2, 3) addresses how the Twins must handle the Miguel Sano situation; names third basemen the Yankees could attempt to acquire; and notes that the Astros could swipe the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate.
- Rotisserie Duck highlights some of the notable contracts given to relievers this winter.
- Dodgers Way encourages LA fans to trust the team’s front office.
- The K Zone and Ladodgerreport each share pieces on Matt Kemp.
- DiNardo’s Dugout (podcast) provides New Year’s resolutions for many teams and players.
- Reviewing the Brew looks back on the Brewers’ acquisition of Zack Greinke.
- Mets Daddy argues that Hideki Matsui deserves more Cooperstown consideration.
- Pinstriped Prospects profiles young Yankees righty Jhony Brito.
Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com
AL East Notes: Yankees, Red Sox, Machado
The latest from the American League East…
- While the Yankees have been trying to trade for a starting pitcher recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the infield should be a greater priority for the club. The Yankees have a full complement of starters on hand, after all, while they’ve lost second baseman Starlin Castro and the third base duo of Chase Headley and Todd Frazier since last season. With that in mind, Sherman runs down a host of veteran infielders the Yankees could add either via free agency or the trade market. Notably, Sherman senses that the Yankees have never been bullish on free agent infielder Brandon Phillips, which would seem to rule out one potential target. Sherman goes on to suggest that the Yankees have had questions about whether Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie has the temperament to play in New York. So, while Lowrie looks like a prime trade candidate, it doesn’t appear he’ll end up in the Bronx.
- Rob Bradford of WEEI explains why the Red Sox‘s interest in Orioles infielder Manny Machado is unlikely to lead to a deal, contending that the two sides don’t match up well in a trade. The Red Sox already have a quality shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, whom they could theoretically package with a pitcher(s) to land Machado, but that would perhaps be too risky on the team’s part. Machado is only under control for another season, while Bogaerts has two more years left. What’s more, the Red Sox don’t seem to have the high-level pitching to entice the Orioles, as Bradford notes that top prospects Jason Groome. Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata haven’t gotten past the Single-A level yet.
- The Red Sox haven’t participated in the robust relief market this winter, and it’s likely to stay that way until they have an answer on free agent slugger J.D. Martinez‘s future, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. If Martinez signs elsewhere, the Red Sox could use some of the money they were going to give him on relief help, observes Mastrodonato, who points out that their righty-heavy bullpen could use some balance. Tony Watson and Brian Duensing are among the top southpaw setup men currently without teams.
Poll: Who Will Sign Eric Hosmer?
The current Major League Baseball offseason has been an unusual one for multiple reasons, including the lack of movement atop the free agent market. Nearly two months after free agency opened, most of the elite members of this winter’s class remain on the board. That includes longtime Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose trip to the market has been especially odd. Surprisingly, there’s no indication any contenders are pursuing him with any gusto.
To this point, two clubs that don’t stand much chance to win in 2018 have shown the most interest in Hosmer. On one hand, it’s not exactly shocking that the Royals have tried to retain Hosmer, who’s one of the most popular players in franchise history and a key reason for their 2015 World Series title. It’s peculiar, though, that they’re trying to keep him while looking to cut payroll and rebuild.
Even with a career year from Hosmer in 2017 and important contributions from the likes of Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Minor – all of whom are now out of the organization – the Royals only won 80 games. So, odds are this isn’t a team that’s going to succeed in the near term even if it convinces the 28-year-old Hosmer to re-sign.
Similarly, the Padres aren’t going to pose a threat in 2018 – especially in a division with three of last season’s five NL playoff qualifiers – yet they’ve gone even harder after Hosmer than the Royals. The Padres met with Hosmer earlier this month, and a week later, they reportedly emerged as the favorites to sign him. But no agreement has come to fruition in the week and a half since then, perhaps owing to a difference of opinion within the San Diego organization.
Some Padres bigwigs would be on board with making Hosmer the first nine-figure player in franchise history with the hope that the well-regarded leader would serve as a culture-changing force; others have reservations about whether now is the right time for the Padres to splurge on a free agent. It’s easy to sympathize with the latter camp, given that the Padres are coming off their 11th straight non-playoff campaign and figure to need at least a couple more years to make a return to the postseason. By the time San Diego turns back into a contender (if it does anytime soon), Hosmer’s best years may be in the rearview mirror.
In addition to signing an enormous deal, an ideal scenario for Hosmer would likely include joining a team that’s in position to win now. But clear fits among contenders are difficult to find. The Cardinals have been linked to Hosmer, though they could continue with Matt Carpenter at first or roll with Jose Martinez and Luke Voit. With those options in the fold, they’ve been more focused on landing a high-profile third baseman than a first baseman in recent weeks. The Red Sox were a popular pick to reel in Hosmer earlier this offseason, but they seemingly took themselves out of the running this week with the surprise re-signing of fellow first baseman Mitch Moreland. And most other playoff hopefuls – including the Astros, Indians, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Mets – either don’t need first base help or aren’t in position to spend big on it.
With highly skilled agent Scott Boras as his representative, one can’t rule out an unexpected team making a major play for Hosmer (Boras could probably talk the Heat Miser into buying a parka, after all). As of now, though, it seems Boras is facing long odds of finding a contender to take on Hosmer. Consequently, Hosmer may have to choose between staying in Kansas City or heading to San Diego.
(Poll link for app users)
Who will sign Eric Hosmer?
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Other 40% (7,888)
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Royals 34% (6,748)
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Padres 26% (5,206)
Total votes: 19,842
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Notes: Marlins, Orioles, Britton, Red Sox
Major League Baseball officials complained “to the highest levels of ESPN management” after commissioner Rob Manfred’s fiery interview with ESPN Radio’s Dan Le Batard on Wednesday, Ryan Glasspiegel of The Big Lead reports. Le Batard took Manfred to task for the payroll slashing the Marlins have done this offseason under rookie owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, and Manfred insisted (perhaps disingenuously) during their discussion that he was unaware the club would cut costs under its new leadership. ESPN spokesperson Ben Cafardo confirmed to Glasspiegel that MLB officials did reach out after the Manfred interview, though the exchange doesn’t seem to have fractured the two entities’ relationship. Cafardo passed along a statement to Glasspiegel from ESPN Executive Vice President, Programming and Scheduling, saying: “We have a terrific relationship with Major League Baseball and we’re in constant communication at all levels, so it’s not uncommon that we would discuss both issues and opportunities in the course of that communication.”
Even if the Le Batard-Manfred dust-up has led to resentment, ESPN and MLB are married to each other for the foreseeable future, as Glasspiegel points out. Back in 2012, the two reached an eight-year, $5.6 billion broadcasting agreement that runs through 2021. More recently, ESPN spent almost $2.6 billion to acquire 75 percent of BAMTech (formerly MLB Advanced Media). Further, with ESPN’s parent company, Disney, having agreed to acquire 21st Century Fox, ESPN will take over Fox’s regional sports networks. That puts ESPN in position to be the regional rightsholder for roughly half of MLB.
More on Miami and a couple more East Coast teams:
- Had one of the other serious bidders for the Marlins acquired the team, this winter’s controversial roster teardown likely wouldn’t be occurring, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The runner-up, Jorge Mas, told Jackson he’d have retained Giancarlo Stanton, increased payroll from $115MM to $130MM and hired a new general manager. Fellow would-be owner Wayne Rothbaum would not have slashed payroll, either; instead, he’d have saved money by cutting “wasteful non-player spending,” including reducing executive salaries, a league source informed Jackson. Under Rothbaum, the Marlins would have tried to contend and improve their farm system – not one or the other. But both Mas and Rothbaum were outbid by Sherman and Jeter, who acquired the franchise for $1.2 billion. In doing so, they overpaid by roughly $400MM, a Marlins official suggested to Jackson.
- It’s “probably not even a remote possibility” that the Orioles will cut ties with closer Zach Britton in the wake of his ruptured Achilles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. Britton, who’s entering his last year of arbitration eligibility, would receive his full 2018 salary (a projected $12.2MM) even if he’s released, according to Kubatko. So, it’s more likely the Orioles will attempt to extend the Scott Boras client and keep him in the fold beyond next year, Kubatko suggests. Interestingly, there’s a small chance a healthy Britton could eventually return to his original role as a starter. The Orioles approached Britton with the idea earlier this year, and though he expressed a desire to remain in the bullpen, he “wasn’t adamant about resisting the switch,” Kubatko writes. Whether it would make sense to change Britton’s role has drawn mixed opinions in the organization, Kubatko details, and his injury may reduce the likelihood of it happening. Regardless of whether he starts or stays in the bullpen going forward, the O’s are hopeful Britton will return before the All-Star break, Kubatko relays.
- The Red Sox‘s farm system has declined in recent years and currently lacks upper-level talent, making it more likely a high-profile addition(s) will come through free agency, Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald posits. The Red Sox could meaningfully upgrade their roster by trading one of their top pitching prospects, Jay Groome or Tanner Houck, but Jennings argues that they’re not in position to move either because current rotation members Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz and Rick Porcello could depart in free agency in the next couple years. While Boston’s prospect pool isn’t in great shape at the moment, it’s worth mentioning that some of its recent farmhands (including Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, as Jennings points out) have turned into more-than-capable majors leaguers, thus improving the Red Sox but weakening their farm. And last winter’s system-hurting trade that saw the Red Sox send big-time prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech to the White Sox for Sale hasn’t exactly led to regret from Boston. Sale continued to serve as one of the best pitchers in the game in 2017, after all, and he’s eminently affordable for two more years.