Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

Diamondbacks Designate Taylor Guilbeau For Assignment

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2021 at 6:26pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have designated southpaw Taylor Guilbeau for assignment, as per a team announcement. The move creates roster space for Joakim Soria, whose deal with the club is now official. Guilbeau has only been a member of the D’Backs organization for a few months, after Arizona claimed him off waivers from the Mariners in October.

The 27-year-old has pitched in each of the last two seasons, posting a 2.70 ERA over 20 innings out of Seattle’s bullpen despite only recording 10 strikeouts and almost matching that total with nine walks. However, Guilbeau did deal with a shoulder problem last season, which could have limited his effectiveness.

Originally a 10th-round pick for the Nationals in 2015, Guilbeau posted much better strikeout totals (20.33K%) and control (6.33BB%) over 347 career minor league innings, while continually posting grounder rates well above the 50 percent threshold. Guilbeau has been a full-time reliever since the start of the 2018 season, so with this intriguing skillset, it’s possible the Diamondbacks could lose him on a DFA claim. If no rival team jumps, Guilbeau can remain in the system as a potential option for a D’Backs bullpen that is short on lefty hurlers.

NL West Notes: Arenado, Braves, Cubs, Escobar, Belt

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2021 at 5:16pm CDT

The Braves had some talks with the Rockies about Nolan Arenado before the star third baseman was dealt to the Cardinals, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required). Rosenthal also sheds some light on one of last offseason’s more intriguing rumors, the talks between the Rockies and Cubs about a trade involving both Arenado and Kris Bryant. Jason Heyward was also part of the negotiations at one point as the Cubs looked for payroll offset for Arenado’s contract, though the Rockies weren’t interested in adding any money beyond the 2021 season (which marks the end of Bryant’s current contract and when Arenado could have exercised his opt-out clause).

As Rosenthal notes, the Cubs could end up looking back on those talks as “a what-might-have-been” given that they’ll now be facing Arenado on a regular basis in the NL Central. From Colorado’s perspective, such a trade might not have been a clear win if a Rockies-bound Bryant had suffered a similar run of injuries that hampered him in the actual 2020 season, but it still might have drawn better reviews than their trade package from St. Louis. “Rival executives remain baffled by the deal,” Rosenthal writes, as the Rox rather inexplicably worked themselves into an unsalvageable situation with their best player.

Indians “Not Interested In” Trading Jose Ramirez

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2021 at 4:01pm CDT

With Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco gone to the Mets, speculation rose about Jose Ramirez’s potential future with the Indians, as the AL MVP runner-up is one of the few players still drawing a significant salary on Cleveland’s roster. However, while teams have been in touch with the Tribe about Ramirez, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) reports that “Cleveland is not interested in moving him.”

Ramirez is owed $9MM in 2021, the last guaranteed season of the five-year, $26MM extension he signed back in March 2017. He is also controlled through 2023 on a pair of club options that would pay Ramirez $11MM in 2022 ($2MM buyout and $13MM in 2023 (no buyout), with potential bonus clauses that could add another $1MM to each of those option years.

Even at the top potential price tag of $35MM over three years, Ramirez’s is obviously “one of baseball’s biggest bargains,” Rosenthal notes. As Ramirez enters his age-28 season with three top-three MVP finishes over the last four seasons, he would have easily scored more than $200MM if he had been a free agent even in this unusual offseason.

Given the nature of Cleveland’s payroll limitations, it isn’t out of the question that the Indians could explore moving Ramirez before his contract is up. But, Ramirez’s contract makes him far less of a trade chip than Lindor was, since Lindor never signed an extension and thus had a salary that rose considerably every year via the arbitration process. (By comparison’s sake, Ramirez will earn less over the next two seasons than the $22.3MM that Lindor will earn in 2021 alone.) Carrasco was also a bit more expensive, as well as older, and perhaps more expendable given the number of young starters Cleveland’s farm system has been able to generate for the MLB roster.

As evidenced by recent signings of Eddie Rosario and Cesar Hernandez, the Tribe is still planning to contend this season. Should the team stumble, it’s possible we could again hear some whispers of a Ramirez deal around the trade deadline, though the nature of Ramirez’s contract probably means the Indians would hang onto him for at least another full year, barring a broader change in organizational direction.

Red Sox Sign Garrett Richards

By Mark Polishuk | February 3, 2021 at 1:40pm CDT

Feb. 3: The Red Sox have formally announced the signing. Richards will earn $8.5MM in 2021, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), and he has a $1.5MM buyout on the 2022 club option. The value of that option increases by $250K for reaching 20 and 25 games started, and would increase by an additional $500K if Richards starts 30 games. Richards, it should be noted, has made 30 starts just once in his career and has only reached 20 starts in a season on two occasions. His 2022 base salary would also increase by $500K if he’s traded.

Jan. 23: The Red Sox and right-hander Garrett Richards have agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). The contract also includes a club option for 2022 that is also worth $10MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter links), with escalators that could increase both the base value of the option beyond $10MM, and also increase the value of the buyout. The deal will become official once Richards passes a physical. Richards is represented by ISE Baseball.

Reports circulated yesterday that Richards and the Sox were making progress towards an agreement, and with Richards now in the fold, Boston has taken another big step towards strengthening its rotation. Martin Perez was also re-signed last week, and between Richards, Perez, and swingman Matt Andriese, the Red Sox have added some veteran arms to the rotation mix and pushed some less-experienced arms (i.e. Tanner Houck, Chris Mazza) further down the depth chart.

Of course, the 32-year-old Richards also cannot be called an entirely sure thing, as he is less than two years removed from a Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of his 2019 season. Richards did post some solid results in 2020, however, delivering a 4.03 ERA, 21.6K%, and 13.6K-BB% over 51 1/3 innings for the Padres, starting 10 games before being moved to the bullpen for his final four regular-season outings in anticipation for the playoffs.

Richards did have a 4.55 SIERA last year, and his Statcast numbers aren’t much to write home about apart from two key categories — a 99th percentile curveball spin rate, and a 97th percentile spin rate on his fastball. Those types of elite metrics could hint at Richards reaching another level of production under the guidance of a more analytical front office and coaching staff, like the one chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has assembled in Boston.

Perhaps moreso than unlocking spin-rate potential, the biggest issue facing Richards and the Red Sox is just how much durability can be expected from a pitcher who has thrown only 198 2/3 total innings since the start of the 2016 season. In this sense, Richards becomes another injury question mark on a team that already has Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez as its top two starters until Chris Sale makes his expected midseason return from his own Tommy John surgery. The presence of Houck, Andriese, Mazza, Nick Pivetta and company allows the Sox some flexibility in the event of an injury, and if everyone is healthy, the club can get creative in resting pitchers or moving spot starters into the rotation to keep everyone fresh.

With Richards and the newly-signed Enrique Hernandez now on the books, the Red Sox have a projected (as per Roster Resource) luxury tax number of just under $198.5MM, putting them within shouting distance of the $210MM tax threshold. If the Sox wish to stay under the threshold, some creativity may be required in carving out more payroll space, which could be part of the reason Andrew Benintendi’s name has been floated in trade speculation.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Notes: Braun, Shreve, Kintzler, Marlins, Rondon

By Mark Polishuk | February 2, 2021 at 3:00pm CDT

The Brewers continue to remain in touch with Ryan Braun, but GM David Stearns told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links) that there isn’t much new to report about the possibility of a reunion between the two sides. Braun hit free agency for the first time in his career after the Brew Crew declined their half of a $14MM option on his services for 2021, on the heels of an injury-hampered season that saw Braun hit .233/.281/.488 over 141 plate appearances.

After starting 15 games as a designated hitter last season, it’s quite possible Braun’s chances of a return to Milwaukee could hinge on whether or not the universal DH is a part of the 2021 season. Stearns gave no specifics on this front, other than to say that his team is making preparations to play either with or without a DH in the lineup. While Braun is entering his age-37 season and doesn’t exactly fit the Brewers’ preferred model of multi-positional players, his 14-year tenure as the face of the franchise could create some room for a return — perhaps for just a final season, as Braun has weighed the idea of retirement but also said he wants to play another year.

Phillies, Red Sox Interested In Marwin Gonzalez

By Mark Polishuk | February 2, 2021 at 1:34pm CDT

Utilityman Marwin Gonzalez is garnering interest from at least six teams, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). The Red Sox have been linked to Gonzalez in recent weeks and continue to be involved in his market, Feinsand writes, while NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (via Twitter) reports that the Phillies are also interested in Gonzalez’s services.

Gonzalez has been roughly a league-average hitter over the last seven seasons with the Astros and Twins, with two exceptions — his .907 OPS outburst over 515 plate appearances for Houston’s World Series team in 2017, and his dismal .211/.286/.320 slash line over 199 PA with Minnesota last season. Gonzalez’s hard-contact numbers weren’t impressive in 2020, but his .241 BABIP indicates that there was perhaps a bit of misfortune at play, not to mention the overall unusual nature of the 2020 season adding uncertainty to stats.

Should Gonzalez get back to his usual level of production, his switch-hitting and ability to play multiple positions could make him a fit on many teams, Boston and Philadelphia included. The Red Sox are known to be looking for a left-handed bat to augment their largely right-handed projected roster, while the Phillies are in need of bench depth and could also use a more proven bat that can hit from the left side of the plate.

The Tigers and Twins have also reportedly shown interest in Gonzalez at various points this offseason, though it isn’t known if either team is still considering the 31-year-old. Of the known suitors, Detroit can offer Gonzalez the most playing time and even an everyday role considering the lack of depth on the Tigers’ roster, though Gonzalez might prefer to play for a team closer to contending in 2021.

Padres Extend A.J. Preller

By Mark Polishuk | February 2, 2021 at 12:57pm CDT

The Padres have extended general manager A.J. Preller through the 2026 season and given him the title of president of baseball operations, the team announced. President of business operations Erik Greupner has also been given a promotion to Chief Executive Officer and a similar contract extension through 2026.

“Erik and A.J. have earned their promotions by assembling strong business and baseball operations groups within our organization while working together towards our singular goal of winning a World Series championship,” Padres owner Peter Seidler said as part of a statement released by the team. “Erik is a steady hand and multi-talented leader, and he has been the driving force behind our innovative business growth in a continuously evolving sports landscape. A.J. has skillfully built both a playoff-caliber Major League club and a top tier minor league system. I look forward to working with Erik and A.J. towards an exciting future for our deserving and extraordinarily supportive fans.”

This is the second contract extension signed by Preller since he was originally hired by the team in August 2014, and his previous deal was set to expire after the 2022 season. Clearly the Padres wanted to act quickly in committing to an executive who, despite a lot of ups and downs, now seems to have positioned San Diego to contend for the better part of the coming decade.

Preller’s first offseason in charge of the Padres saw the team load up on established veterans, an aggressive strategy that backfired with another losing season in 2015 and, eventually, led to another rebuild. Preller spent the next few seasons overseeing the development of arguably baseball’s minor league system, setting the groundwork for a multi-year effort to again obtain star players in various trades, while also hanging onto many of the most highly-regarded members of this farm system. Combine this with Padres ownership’s willingness to break the bank on expensive free agent signings like Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer, and the Padres have suddenly amassed a very deep and talented roster intent on overthrowing the Dodgers atop the NL West and finally bringing San Diego its first World Series title.

It has been quite a turn-around for Preller considering that he was reportedly close to being fired back in 2016 after a 30-day suspension issued by Major League Baseball. Preller was punished for failing to disclose medical information about Drew Pomeranz when the Padres dealt him to the Red Sox for prospect Anderson Espinoza, and multiple other teams also spoke to the league about similar alleged actions in other Padres trades.

2020 was the Padres’ first winning season of Preller’s tenure, as the team went 37-23 in the regular season and defeated the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Dodgers in the NLDS. With a playoff berth finally under his belt, Preller was again aggressive this winter, adding Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove in newsworthy trades, re-signing Jurickson Profar to a three-year deal, and signing Korean star Ha-Seong Kim to a free agent contract.

The addition of the president of baseball operations title doesn’t materially change Preller’s duties, as he was already the team’s top front office decision-maker. Teams use various designations (whether president of baseball ops, chief baseball officer, senior VP, general manager, etc.) for the person in charge of their baseball operations department, though the new title just cements Preller’s position and perhaps keeps other teams from trying to lure him away in the future with offers of a promtion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Phillies Sign Hector Rondon, David Paulino To Minors Deals

By Mark Polishuk | February 2, 2021 at 12:25pm CDT

12:25PM: Rondon will earn $1.5MM if he makes Philadelphia’s Major League roster, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The righty can also earn up to $1MM in additional bonus incentives.

11:25AM: The Phillies announced that right-handers Hector Rondon and David Paulino have been signed to minor league contracts. Both pitchers will receive invites to the team’s big league Spring Training camp.

Rondon hit the open market in October when the Diamondbacks bought out his $4MM 2021 club option for $500K. It wasn’t an unexpected decision considering how Rondon struggled in his only season with Arizona, posting a 7.65 ERA over 20 innings with below-average 23.7% strikeout percentage and 12.4K-BB%. Rondon also allowed six homers over his 20 frames of work. This performance was a stark departure from the solid work Rondon delivered over his previous six seasons with the Cubs and Astros, so Philadelphia is surely hoping it has added some much-needed bullpen help at the lowered cost of a minor league contract.

Rondon posted a 3.06 ERA over 361 1/3 innings from 2014-19 with a 25.3K%, 18.7K-BB%, and 48.8% grounder rate, formerly serving as the Cubs’ closer and contributing to Chicago’s 2016 world championship team. A consistent hard thrower over his career, Rondon’s fastball velocity dipped slightly to a 95.6mph average in 2020, though like all his stats, that could be attributed to the odd nature of the most recent season rather than a potential sign of decline heading into his age-33 season.

Paulino last appeared in the majors in 2018, pitching with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A club in 2019 after posting a 5.48 ERA over 42 2/3 career MLB innings with Houston and Toronto from 2016-18. Once a top-100 prospect, Paulino has battled injuries and was issued an 80-game PED suspension in 2017. Only a few days shy of his 27th birthday, Paulino could still be something of a late bloomer, so there’s no risk for the Phillies in bringing him to camp and seeing if some further potential can be unclocked.

GM Jeff Bridich: Trevor Story Expected To Begin Season With Rockies

By Mark Polishuk | February 2, 2021 at 12:19pm CDT

With Nolan Arenado now officially on his way to the Cardinals, questions have inevitably turned to the future of another star Rockies infielder in Trevor Story. The shortstop is entering the final year of his contract, but the team expects that Story will begin 2021 in a Colorado uniform, as GM Jeff Bridich told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links) and other reporters today.

Bridich stopped short of saying that Story wouldn’t be traded whatsoever, as “it’s very difficult to predict what the coming months will look like.” Beyond just Story, however, Bridich more firmly stated that the Arenado trade wasn’t the first of many for his team. “This certainly is not a total tear-down and rebuild….If that was the case, certain players already would have been traded,” the general manager said.

That comment could be a more pointed reference to Story, considering how Story can be a free agent next winter. The shortstop has been cited as a logical trade candidate for months, though while reports in December suggested the Rox were at least considering the possibility, there hasn’t been much in the way of concrete news about specific teams pursuing Story. That said, it’s probably safe to assume that every team in need of a shortstop this offseason at least placed a call to Bridich to check in on Story’s availability.

While that list of possible suitors has narrowed as several notable shortstops have come off the board in free agency and in the trade market, there would certainly still be plenty of interest in Story if the Rockies changed course and shopped him now, or even in midseason as a pure trade deadline rental. A case could certainly be made that Colorado is better off moving him now in order to maximize Story’s trade return, since waiting until closer to the trade deadline creates added risk of an injury, or Story struggling, or teams being less willing to give up multiple prospects since they’d only have Story for a portion of a season rather than all of 2021.

However, the Rockies seem intent on not throwing in the towel on the coming season. At today’s press conference, owner Dick Monfort told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other media that “I truly believe this is a very talented team that underperformed the last two years.” Monfort has been notably over-optimistic about his team in the past (most notably his prediction almost exactly one year ago that the 2020 Rockies would win 94 games), and even if the Rockies were better than their 2019-20 records indicate, that certainly isn’t a promise of future success. Colorado has done little this offseason besides trade Arenado, while the Dodgers and Padres now seem prepared to dominate the NL West for years to come.

The Rockies’ Top Trade Chip In A Potential Rebuild

By Mark Polishuk | January 31, 2021 at 10:44pm CDT

Once all of the details are ironed out and Nolan Arenado has been officially traded to the Cardinals, it’s possible that Rockies owner Dick Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich won’t mention the word “rebuild” when explaining the trade to fans and media. It could be sold as a perfect storm of a superstar player’s displeasure with the front office coinciding with an unprecedented economic downturn, leading the Rox with no choice but to move Arenado despite the team’s full intention to contend in 2021.

But, let’s be real — the Rockies face a big uphill battle in the NL West. The Dodgers and Padres are arguably the two best teams in baseball, the Giants are a looming threat considering all their available payroll space following the 2021 season, and even the Diamondbacks could be primed for a rebound considering they couldn’t seem to catch a break last year. After two consecutive losing seasons and the impending loss of Arenado, Colorado seems like a prime candidate to blow things up. Several trade candidates remain on the roster, each with some obstacle that could limit what the Rockies could receive back in terms of high-quality young talent.

Trevor Story’s name has been whispered in trade rumors all winter, but Story is only under contract through the 2021 season and many of the top contenders have already addressed their shortstop needs. Charlie Blackmon’s bat wasn’t quite as potent in 2020 as in past years, and trade suitors may balk at the $52MM (in guaranteed money and in two years of player options) owed to Blackmon through the 2023 season. Scott Oberg’s continued health issues make him a question mark going forward. Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela each have three years of team control remaining and would definitely get some trade attention, though neither pitcher has been consistent enough to merit a blue-chip return.

Assuming the Rockies don’t go totally scorched-earth with a rebuild and start shopping former top prospect Brendan Rodgers or current top prospect Zac Veen, that leaves one player who would instantly bring back a big trade package. From an overall consideration of team control, financial cost, and Major League track record, German Marquez is not just the Rockies’ best trade chip, but one of the more intriguing trade chips in all of baseball.

Let’s begin with Marquez’s underrated statistical record, as only 14 pitchers have accumulated more fWAR than Marquez (12.2) over the last four seasons. Marquez has a 4.21 ERA and an above-average 24.2K% and 17.8K-BB% over 613 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season. He averaged 177 frames per year during the regulation-length 2017-19 campaigns, while tossing a league-high 81 2/3 innings in the abbreviated 2020 season. One knock on Marquez is that he allows quite a bit of hard contact, but he has limited the damage thanks to an ability to keep the ball on the ground (47.6% career grounder rate).

These are solid numbers for any hurler, but particularly impressive for someone who pitches their home games at Coors Field. As you might expect, Marquez has some pretty notable home/away splits — a 3.51 ERA in 341 1/3 road innings during his career, and a 5.10 ERA over 293 innings in Denver. It is certainly possible that the right-hander could reach another level of performance if he didn’t pitch in such a hitter-friendly environment, which makes him all the more interesting for trade suitors.

Marquez is entering his age-26 season, and is already locked up through at least the 2023 season on a five-year, $43MM contract extension signed in April 2019. $36MM remains owed to Marquez over the final three guaranteed years of that contract, which includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2024. Less than two years later, the Marquez extension still looks like a very canny move from Bridich and company, if for not quite the reason they expected — this affordable price tag makes Marquez a fit for almost every contender in the league, pandemic-lowered revenues notwithstanding.

While Marquez hasn’t had a Cy Young Award-winning peak like Blake Snell, Marquez is over two years younger than Snell, has fewer injury concerns, and is owed less money than the $39MM Snell is scheduled to make through the 2023 season. By that token, Colorado is certainly within its rights to ask for a trade return similar to what the Rays received for dealing Snell to the Padres this offseason. An enterprising team with some payroll space to spare could also sweeten the pot by offering to take some more money off the Rockies’ hands — perhaps the last $11MM remaining on Ian Desmond’s contract, in terms of salary, the buyout of his 2022 club option, and his $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

It remains to be seen if the Rockies will start a full-fledged rebuild immediately once Arenado is gone, or perhaps if the team will take the rebuild route whatsoever. There’s a ticking clock on a Story considering his lack of remaining control, but the Rockies might not be in a particular rush to move Marquez quite yet since he is still signed through 2023. The argument can be made, however, that Marquez will never be as valuable as he is right now, so if the Rockies did want to start looking to the future, the time is now to maximize their return.

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